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通胀发酵,美联储上演“宫斗”!特朗普送上“黑色幽默”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 06:09
关税方面又曝出新消息。 据船舶追踪公司Kpler数据,8月乌拉尔原油对印度的出货量降至日均40万桶,较此前的日均118万桶下降近三分之二。有分析指出,特朗普挥舞关税大棒, 重锤印度,扬言惩罚后者购买俄罗斯石油的行径,目前看来,懂王的施压似乎奏效。 另外,世贸组织(WTO)网站公布美方信函,据信函内容显示,美国接受与巴西就"美对巴商品加征最高50%关税"一事进行磋商的请求。这也意味着巴西面 临的50%高额关税的"惩罚"仍有回旋的余地。 关税隐忧 美国国内对于关税的担忧情绪也在持续发酵。不少分析人士认为,关税的全面落地,可能对通胀与全球供应链产生深远的影响。 美联储最新公布的7月货币政策会议纪要显示,大多数委员认为通胀风险大于就业风险,几位委员称当前利率可能并不远高于中性利率。许多委员指出关税 的全面影响可能需要一段时间才能显现,几位委员预计企业将把关税转嫁给消费者。 会议纪要显示,几位与会者强调,通胀在一段较长时间内高于2%,在关税高企导致通胀影响长期化时,通胀率长期高于2%加大了通胀预期失锚风险。 近期不少华尔街大行也强调通胀抬头的风险。花旗估计,就目前而言,企业正在通过较低的利润率和供应链的变通办法来消化关 ...
微软之后轮到索尼,PS5美国全系涨价
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-08-21 06:01
【文/观察者网 张菁娟】关税战的回旋镖,终究还是落到了美国本土消费者头上。 综合美国政治新闻网(Politico)、美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)报道,继微软之后,日本索尼 也于本周三(20日)宣布,旗下热门游戏机PlayStation 5(PS5)将从本周起在美国市场涨价。 PS5最早于2020年11月份在全球大部分地区发售。据报道,此次涨价覆盖了PS5的多款型号,幅度均为 50美元。入门级的PS5数字版售价将从450美元升至500美元,带光驱的PS5从500美元涨至550美元,索 尼高端机型PS5 Pro的价格则从700美元上调至750美元。 尽管索尼未将涨价与特朗普的关税政策挂钩,但数月来,消费品企业早已频频预警涨价潮的迫近。 索尼全球营销副总裁托马蒂斯(Isabelle Tomatis)20日在一份声明中表示,"与许多全球企业一样,我 们仍在应对充满挑战的经济环境。因此,我们做出了一个艰难的决定:自8月21日起,上调PS5在美国 的建议零售价。" 声明指出,游戏手柄等主机配件的建议零售价保持不变,且其他市场暂无价格调整的计划。 索尼PlayStation展台,PS5游戏机。 IC photo 值 ...
【环球财经】美国高关税下希腊农产品出口前路维艰
Xin Hua She· 2025-08-21 05:21
新华财经雅典8月21日电 通讯丨美国高关税下希腊农产品出口前路维艰 美国是希腊餐用橄榄的重要市场。希腊统计局数据显示,2024年,希腊餐用橄榄对美出口额达2.14亿欧 元,占其全球橄榄出口总额的28%。 伯罗奔尼撒半岛西南部的麦西尼亚地区,濒临爱奥尼亚海,以盛产卡拉马塔橄榄和优质橄榄油而闻名。 橄榄种植业占据当地农业重要份额,三分之一的橄榄相关产品用于出口。科斯塔斯·帕夫洛普洛斯是当 地橄榄种植者,他的家族三代都从事橄榄种植业。他在接受记者采访时直言:"关税直接损害了我们的 收益,对种植者的影响巨大。" 希腊餐用橄榄生产、包装与出口协会主席科斯塔斯·祖卡斯表示:"额外(关税)成本正在侵蚀供应链各 环节的利润。如果价格继续上涨,进入美国市场的机会恐将受到影响。" 希腊橄榄油标准化工业协会理事约戈斯·米特拉科斯表示,尽管目前希腊橄榄油对美出口份额有限,但 美国加征关税将不可避免地推高售价,削弱希腊橄榄油在美市场竞争力。当地出口商未来可能不得不转 向其他市场。 新华社记者陈刚 自美国对欧盟商品加征关税以来,菲达奶酪、餐用橄榄和橄榄油等希腊标志性农产品出口面临严峻考 验。新华社记者日前采访当地乳制品生产商、橄榄种植业 ...
南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250821
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:40
南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年8月21日 铜价在周三小幅下滑,说明当价格高企后,下游需求短时间无法消化。短期来看,铜价或继续以震荡为主。 随着时间的推移,下游终端对于美国关税造成的8月需求负反馈开始迟疑,且认为现在的价格已经基本兑现了 此前的预期,不过需要一定的时间来消化价格的上升。宏观方面仍需关注鲍威尔在全球央行年会上的发言。 短期来看,美元指数在下方的支撑较强,对于有色金属整体估值起到一定的压力作用。 利多因素: 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号:Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率(日度) | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 78640 | 73000-80000 | 11.64% | 22.6% | source: 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议(日度) | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...
黄金,如期大涨,一步到位还是多头开启?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 02:32
Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve, particularly his call for the resignation of Fed Governor Cook, indicating potential legal implications for Cook [1] - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting reveal that inflation risks have overshadowed concerns about the labor market, leading to internal divisions regarding interest rate policies [1] - NATO member countries reaffirmed their support for Ukraine during a recent video conference, emphasizing the importance of achieving a just and lasting peace [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising from around 3311 to a peak of 3351, driven by Trump's demands regarding the Federal Reserve [2] - The market's reaction to the Fed's meeting minutes was anticipated, with gold showing a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart [2] - Despite the recent bullish trend, the medium-term outlook for gold remains bearish, with targets set at 3245 and potentially down to 3000-2950 [5] Group 3 - Upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and manufacturing statistics for August, are expected to influence market sentiment [6] - The market is at a critical juncture, with potential resistance levels identified at 3358-60 and 3370-75, while support is seen at 3330 and 3320 [7] - The overall market behavior suggests a pattern of initial declines followed by recoveries, with traders preparing for potential volatility as the September Fed meeting approaches [9]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250821
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:41
2025年08月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石:宏观风偏尚未显著回调,支撑仍存 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢:宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板:宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁:市场情绪冷淡,偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅:市场情绪冷淡,偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木:震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 铁矿石趋势强度:1 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 21 日 铁矿石:宏观风偏尚未显著回调,支撑仍存 | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | 来源:Mysteel,东财 Choice,国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 财联社 8 月 16 日电,据央视新闻,当地时间 8 月 15 日,美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口 ...
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250821
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the sentiment in the有色金属 market is mixed. Some metals may experience price fluctuations due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical issues, and market expectations. For example, copper prices may be in a consolidation phase, aluminum prices may turn to a volatile state, and zinc prices still face significant downward risks. Meanwhile, long - term factors like the US easing expectations and domestic anti - involution policies may support nickel prices [1][3][9]. - The prices of various metals are affected by different factors. For instance, copper prices are influenced by raw material supply, inventory levels, and market sentiment; aluminum prices are related to inventory changes and downstream consumption; lead prices are affected by raw material shortages and high inventory at the consumer end; and tin prices are restricted by slow production resumption and weak demand during the off - season [1][3][7][11]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper closed up 0.38% at $9,721 per ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 78,730 yuan per ton. The price may consolidate and await further guidance from the Fed Chair's speech on Friday [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 156,350 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 25,000 tons. Domestic refined copper net imports in July were 218,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from June [1]. - **Outlook**: The market has expectations of interest rate cuts, and raw material supply is tight. Overall, copper prices may consolidate, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 78,000 - 79,200 yuan per ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,600 - $9,800 per ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum closed up 0.37% at $2,577 per ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20,565 yuan per ton. The price may turn to a volatile state [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 442,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 480,000 tons [3]. - **Outlook**: The US - Russia talks were relatively smooth, but the US has expanded the scope of taxation on aluminum and steel derivatives. With low domestic inventory and strong aluminum product exports, aluminum prices are supported, but downstream consumption is weak. The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,480 - 20,680 yuan per ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,540 - $2,600 per ton [3]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract slightly increased to 20,095 yuan per ton, and the price increase may face resistance [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 200 tons to 31,400 tons [5]. - **Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Cost support is strong, but the large price difference between futures and spot may limit price increases [5]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.58% at 16,735 yuan per ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1,971.5 per ton. The price is expected to be weak [7]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 65,800 tons, and LME lead inventory was 283,000 tons [7]. - **Outlook**: The lead ore inventory is tight, and the processing fee is declining. The demand from battery manufacturers is weak, and the finished product inventory is high. Overall, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to decline [7]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.26% at 22,265 yuan per ton, and LME zinc 3S remained unchanged at $2,776.5 per ton. The price still has significant downward risks [8][9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 135,400 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 72,200 tons [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Zinc ore inventory is decreasing, but the TC of zinc concentrate is rising. Refined zinc imports are decreasing, and domestic social inventory is increasing rapidly. Downstream consumption is weak, and the market is in an oversupply state [9]. Tin - **Price Movement**: On August 20, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 267,840 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Inventory**: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 184 tons to 7,329 tons, and LME inventory increased by 85 tons to 1,715 tons. As of August 15, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 10,392 tons [11]. - **Outlook**: The supply is tight in the short term due to slow production resumption in Myanmar and transportation issues. The demand is weak during the off - season. As production resumes in Myanmar, the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan per ton for domestic tin and $31,000 - $34,000 per ton for LME tin [11]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices fluctuated. The price may face correction pressure in the short term but has support in the long term [12][13]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided in the summary part. - **Outlook**: Downstream stainless steel demand improvement is limited, but long - term factors such as the US easing expectations and RKAB approval support the price. The SHFE nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan per ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - $16,500 per ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index dropped 4.05% to 82,832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed down 7.49% at 80,980 yuan. The price may have further fluctuations [15]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided in the summary part. - **Outlook**: The sentiment of bullish funds supported by supply disruptions has cooled down. The short - term support level of lithium prices has shifted upward, and attention should be paid to imports and industry news. The reference operating range for the GFEX lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 77,000 - 82,000 yuan per ton [15]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: On August 20, 2025, the alumina index increased by 0.67% to 3,137 yuan per ton. The price may have limited downward space [17]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,000 tons to 75,000 tons [17]. - **Outlook**: The supply of domestic and overseas ore is disturbed, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 3,100 - 3,500 yuan per ton [17]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,820 yuan per ton, down 0.50%. The price is expected to fluctuate [19][20]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 1,078,900 tons, a decrease of 2.48%. The 300 - series inventory was 644,500 tons, a decrease of 1.99% [20]. - **Outlook**: The decline was affected by low - price selling by arbitrage institutions. The downstream is cautious in purchasing, and the steel mills have the intention to support the price. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate [20].
美联储大消息!她回应特朗普:不会辞职!黄金走高
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-21 00:25
昨夜,欧美股市多数收跌,其中,纳指跌超0.6%,标普500指数四连跌,道指小幅飘红,英国富时100 指数涨超1%。科技股普跌,英特尔跌近7%,苹果跌近2%。 投下反对票的两位理事是沃勒和鲍曼,他们倾向于在本次会议上就开始降息。 特朗普最新表示,库克现在"必须辞职"。此前有消息称,美国联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普尔特致信司 法部长帕姆·邦迪,指控库克在两笔抵押贷款中涉嫌伪造银行文件和财产记录以获取优惠贷款条件,可 能构成刑事犯罪。 不过,库克最新表示,她无意被迫辞职。 库克通过发言人以电子邮件形式发表声明称:"我无意因社交媒体上的指控被迫辞职。作为美联储成 员,我严肃对待个人财务历史相关问题,目前正在整理准确信息以回应合理质疑。"这番表态直接回应 了美国总统特朗普的辞职要求。 美联储公布7月会议纪要 消息面上,美联储公布了7月会议纪要。 根据周三公布的会议纪要,官员们普遍认为劳动力市场和通胀形势存在风险,但多数人仍坚持认为现在 降息为时过早。最终,美联储选择维持基准利率不变,但两位联邦储备委员会成员罕见地投下了反对 票,要求立即降息。这是30多年来首次出现多位理事同时反对利率决议的情况,凸显了决策层内部的分 歧。 ...
美联储会议纪要:降息未获广泛支持
第一财经· 2025-08-20 23:49
本文字数:1579,阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 2025.08. 21 由于在7月利率会议两天后发布的美国劳动力市场报告疲软,有市场观点认为这份会议纪要略显"陈 旧"。 北京时间周四(21日)凌晨,美联储公布今年7月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)政策会议纪要。 纪要显示,由于新贸易关税的不确定影响,通胀风险仍然很高。虽然有呼吁降息的声音,大多数政策 制定者认为,货币政策可以再等一段时间,以获得更多关于关税对通胀影响的证据。 7月会议立场仍偏谨慎 在上月的表决中,联邦公开市场委员会以9-2的表决结果决定按兵不动。美联储负责监管的副主席米 歇尔·鲍曼和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒都投票反对维持基准利率不变的决定,转而支持降息25个 基点。这是自1993年以来,首次有多名美联储理事投下反对票。 会议纪要称:"几乎所有与会者都认为,在本次会议上将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%是合适的。" 会议纪要显示,官员们继续就关税对通胀的影响及其政策立场的限制程度进行积极辩论。"关于通胀 前景,与会者普遍预计通胀将在短期内上升。" 一些政策制定者评论说,目前的联邦基金利率水平可能不会远高于 ...
凌晨!美联储,重大发布!
券商中国· 2025-08-20 23:31
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding monetary policy have become more pronounced, highlighting the complexities faced by decision-makers amid concerns over tariffs, inflation risks, and employment market conditions [2][4]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Disagreements - The FOMC's meeting minutes revealed that two officials voted against maintaining the current interest rate, advocating for a 25 basis point cut to mitigate potential labor market deterioration [4]. - Most officials believe that the risks of rising inflation outweigh the risks of declining employment, indicating a split in perspectives on economic conditions [4][5]. Inflation Risks - Officials expressed concerns about the uncertain impacts of tariff policies on inflation and the potential instability of inflation expectations [6]. - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. remains slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with recent increases in goods price inflation attributed to tariffs [7]. Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook remains high, with officials emphasizing the dual mandate of full employment and price stability facing significant risks [5][6]. - Many officials expect inflation to rise in the short term, influenced by the timing and magnitude of tariff increases implemented by the previous administration [7]. Financial Stability Concerns - The minutes highlighted vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system, particularly high asset valuations, which have raised concerns among officials [10]. - Recent sell-offs in high-valuation tech stocks have been noted, with market participants expressing caution regarding the sustainability of these valuations [10]. Stablecoin Implications - Officials discussed the potential rise of stablecoins following the passage of the GENIUS Act, which could enhance payment system efficiency but also raise concerns about their impact on the financial system and monetary policy [11]. - The need for close monitoring of the assets backing stablecoins was emphasized, given their potential influence on the banking system and financial stability [11].