据新华社消息，美军1月3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，抓走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，并将其强 行带往美国。美国总统特朗普当天公开宣称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉，并宣布美国大型石油企业将进入 委内瑞拉，投资数以十亿计美元，"维修"石油基础设施并创造收益。 光大期货认为，近期全球陆上及水上库存累库速度虽有所放缓，但绝对库存依然处于高位，维持对于 2026年一季度供需压力较大的判断不变。受地缘事件影响，假期结束后国内市场能化品种开盘可能出现 较大波动，建议投资者密切关注事态进展，做好风险管理。 国金证券石油化工团队认为，当前原油价格仍在地缘冲突与供需过剩的矛盾中博弈，主要支撑来自地缘 因素。地缘冲突引发的原油价格上涨都将是一时性的，中期将进一步加剧原油过剩的压力。如委内瑞拉 冲突结束，委内瑞拉产量可能修复至110万桶/天以上。 1月2日，美油主力合约收跌0.16%，报57.33美元/桶，周涨1.04%；布伦特原油主力合约跌0.08%，报 60.8美元/桶，周涨0.93%。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 据新华社报道，委内瑞拉已探明石油储量3000亿桶，约占全球已探明储量的17%，居世界首位。 尽管储量巨大，但其产能 ...

早上好，先来关注下重要消息。 美国下调13家意大利意面出口商拟议关税税率 据央视新闻消息，当地时间2026年1月1日，美国商务部表示，已下调对13家意大利意面出口商的拟议关税税率。此前，这些企业一度面临最高92%的 关税。 调整后，Garofalo的拟议关税降至13.89%，La Molisana降至2.26%，其余11家企业统一为9.09%。美国商务部预计将于3月12日公布最终裁定，在此之 前继续征求意见。 此次下调意面关税，正值美方宣布推迟对部分进口家具加征关税之际。 环球网援引路透社、彭博社报道，白宫表示，特朗普当地时间2025年12月31日签署公告，将软体家具、橱柜和浴室柜的关税上调措施再推迟1年。 彭博社称，在美国民众对物价水平不满情绪持续升温背景下，特朗普推迟上述上调计划，放缓了其征税步伐。根据白宫发布的文件，原定于周四 （2026年1月1日）生效的更高关税措施，将推迟至2027年1月1日生效。 据报道，依据2025年9月美国发布的一项公告，特朗普此前宣布自2026年1月1日起，将"某些软垫木质产品"关税从25%提高至30%，将橱柜和浴室柜 的关税从25%提高至50%。 美军袭击两艘所谓"从事毒品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historic bull market in gold prices in 2025, which saw an increase of over 70% during the year, driven by multiple global economic challenges and a shift in international order [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - In 2025, gold prices surged, reaching nearly $4,600 per ounce by year-end, marking the largest increase since the 1979 oil crisis [2]. - The upward trend in gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with an 18% increase that year, and continued with significant annual gains exceeding 25% in 2020 and 2024 [2]. - Other precious metals also saw substantial price increases, with silver prices rising approximately 150% and platinum surpassing $2,300 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Risks - The rise in gold prices reflects heightened global risk aversion and a lack of economic confidence, despite forecasts indicating that global economic growth rates for 2025 and 2026 may not significantly slow down [3]. - Major risks to the global economy stem from the U.S.-initiated trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [3]. Group 3: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The demand for gold has increased as a safe-haven asset, reflecting a decline in the credibility of the U.S. dollar [4]. - Key factors contributing to the current bull market include the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the U.S. trade war, which have all heightened market risks [4]. - The decline in U.S. dollar credibility, exacerbated by high levels of U.S. government debt and aggressive monetary policies, has driven investors towards gold [4]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks worldwide have accelerated diversification of reserves, significantly increasing gold holdings, which has been a crucial factor in driving up gold prices [5]. - In 2024, gold accounted for 20% of global central bank reserves, surpassing the euro's 16% share, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year [5]. Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, gold has served as a traditional safe-haven asset, gaining favor during times of economic turmoil [6]. - The current surge in gold prices is indicative of a complex interplay of economic challenges, geopolitical risks, and a potential shift towards gold as a long-term asset rather than a temporary hedge [7].

转自：北京日报客户端 2025年，世界之变、时代之变、历史之变的大潮奔涌而来，国际形势犹如江船急下，让局中人应接不 暇，颇有"乱峰幽谷不知数"的感觉。 随着2025年的结束，21世纪也已走过四分之一。这一年里，百年变局在大国关系跌宕、地缘冲突激荡、 热点冲突延宕、多国政局动荡、世界经济涤荡、右翼思潮游荡、全球倡议回荡、大国外交坦荡中加速演 进。 其间，既有"东升西降"的历史大势，也有"特朗普冲击波"的短期效应；既有战后80年全球治理格局的破 旧立新，也有中美战略博弈的攻守易位…… 百年变局：入局还是出局？ 在历史的滚滚洪流中，有人躬身入局，有人黯然出局，有人兴风作浪，有人劈波斩浪。你中有我、我中 有你的地球村内，国家之间、民族之间、个体之间都命运交织、休戚与共，可谓"风声雨声枪炮声，声 声入耳；家事国事天下事，事事关己"。 在动荡变革的世界中，选择开放还是封闭、合作还是对抗、共赢还是零和，不仅考验着各国领导人的格 局和智慧，也影响着地球上每个人的切身利益。 随着特朗普卷土重来，关税战、贸易战、科技战狼烟四起，国际形势风云再起，大国关系磕磕碰碰、虚 虚实实，既较量也商量，既交手也握手。 作为全球最关键的双边关系 ...

日内美元指数和美债利率走低，但这并未提供一个驱动贵金属上行的环境，市场受交易情绪主导。在经 历了年底强劲反弹后，黄金与白银市场周一遭遇剧烈抛售。由于年末市场流动性稀薄加剧了价格波动， 交易员大举获利了结，导致贵金属价格全线跳水，终结了近期的单边上涨行情。现货黄金盘中一度下跌 5%，创下自10月21日以来的最大单日跌幅，也是今年第二次出现如此幅度的单日暴跌。白银的跌势更 为惨烈，盘中跌幅一度达到11%，创下自2020年9月以来最大的单日跌幅。尽管长期贵金属格局和配置 尚未改变，但需要警惕在短期风险快速积聚的情况下，价格可能存在较大的振幅。 后续来看，假期美国将公布12月标普全球制造业PMI，金价仍较易受到外盘扰动，同时地缘冲突延续或 同样给金价带来影响，需谨慎持仓过节。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月29日，COMEX黄金盘中直线跳水，报收4350.2美元/盎司，跌幅4.45%。国内SHFE金夜盘大幅下 挫，报收975.80元/克，跌幅4.00%。 责任编辑：朱赫楠 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月29日，COMEX黄金盘中直线跳 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (short - term trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable) [4] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] Report's Core Views - The geopolitical conflict has not fundamentally changed the pattern of oversupply in the energy market, and most energy products are expected to be under pressure [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - After the US - Ukraine talks, the geopolitical premium has a pulsed impact on oil prices, but the long - term concern about oversupply persists. The US Department of Energy predicts that in 2026, the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil will be $55/barrel and $51/barrel respectively, and global inventories may increase by over 2 million barrels per day [1] Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors are short - term fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil has potential demand support, but high inventory pressure is significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak due to increased supply and lack of strong demand [2] Asphalt - Since December, the weekly shipment volume has been at a low level in the past four years. The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose, and it will return to a price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand [3]

——国际时政周评 回顾：美国暂缓芯片关税；俄乌和谈。 未来一周：地缘冲突；美国内政及关税。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： ❑ 未来一周关注： 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1）美国暂缓对华芯片加征关税 18 个月。1）此次美国推迟对华芯片加征 关税，主要是试图稳定短期中美关系、管控摩擦幅度。2）在科技竞争 领域，美国的战略目的没有发生变化，但策略上可能将实行更加精准的 管制。此次美国推迟对华芯片加征关税，结合近期美国政府放宽对华芯 片出口政策，我们认为这不意味着美国在科技竞争上的战略目的发生变 化（即维持美国科技霸权和竞争优势），而是在试图维系一般贸易的同 时，施行更加精准的管控政策，而非全面围堵（因为这可能引起反效 果）。3）关注美国国内政治对大国关系可能的干扰。 2）俄乌和谈：边打边谈持续，领土等关键敏感问题仍待协商。领土方面， 目前乌方可能的方案包括：维持现状，"和平计划"签署之日的部队部 署线将被事实上承认为接触线，并由国际部队进行监督；在顿巴斯地区 建立潜在的"自由经济区"。安全保障上，乌克兰或以不加入北约承诺 （但要加入欧 ...

Group 1: AI Bubble and Market Valuation - The current valuation levels of US stocks, particularly in the AI sector, are approaching those seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble, raising concerns about sustainability [2] - Analysts predict a 10-13% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2025, with a 15% growth expected in 2026, but there are doubts whether this growth can support current valuations [2] - If major tech companies fail to deliver expected returns from AI investments, market confidence could collapse, leading to significant economic repercussions [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - The top 20% of wealthy households in the US hold 70% of financial assets, and their spending accounts for nearly half of total US consumption [3] - A collapse of the AI bubble could lead to a rapid decrease in wealth for these households, resulting in a sharp contraction in consumer spending and a potential recession [3] Group 3: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - The construction of AI infrastructure has created numerous jobs, but a sudden halt in AI investment could lead to widespread job losses and a rise in unemployment [4] - Stricter immigration policies are exacerbating labor shortages, which could lead to increased wage inflation and further economic instability [5] Group 4: Fiscal and Trade Risks - The US federal budget deficit reached $1.8 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6][7] - Proposed "tariff rebates" by the Trump administration could exacerbate the deficit, especially if they are not supported by corresponding revenue [6][7] Group 5: Federal Reserve Independence - The potential political influence over the Federal Reserve could undermine its independence, leading to uncontrolled inflation and rising long-term interest rates [10][11] - A loss of credibility for the Federal Reserve could result in a significant decline in the value of the US dollar and increased capital flight [12] Group 6: Bond Market Trust Crisis - The US federal deficit is expected to remain high, and any loss of investor confidence could trigger a sell-off in the bond market, affecting global financial stability [13] - European countries are also facing similar challenges, with rising defense spending and increasing public debt levels [14][15] Group 7: Japanese Policy and Global Impact - Japan's recent interest rate hikes could disrupt global financial markets, particularly affecting yen carry trades that have significant implications for liquidity [16][17] - A potential "rate hike-recession" cycle in Japan could further complicate global economic conditions [17] Group 8: Gold Valuation Risks - The significant disparity between the market value and the official valuation of US gold reserves poses risks if the government decides to revalue these assets [18][19] - A revaluation could lead to inflationary pressures and undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve [19][20] Group 9: Geopolitical Risks - The shift in US foreign policy could lead to increased volatility in global markets, particularly concerning energy prices and supply chains [21][22] - Ongoing conflicts in regions like the Middle East and Africa could disrupt critical trade routes, impacting global economic stability [23][25] Group 10: European Political Fragmentation - The rise of far-right parties in Europe and the erosion of EU unity could lead to increased political instability and economic challenges [26][27] - The potential for member states to act independently could weaken the EU's collective decision-making power and exacerbate existing tensions [28] Group 11: Private Credit Market Risks - The private credit market has grown significantly, but rising default rates and financial instability could lead to a broader financial crisis [29][30] - A collapse in this market could trigger a chain reaction affecting traditional financial systems and investor confidence [30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with various factors influencing different commodities. Geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic conditions are the main drivers of price movements. For example, geopolitical conflicts often provide short - term price support, but in the long run, supply - demand fundamentals play a dominant role [1][21]. - Many commodities are in a state of supply - demand adjustment, with some facing oversupply (e.g., alumina), while others have potential supply shortages (e.g., nickel in the future). Market sentiment and expectations also have a significant impact on prices, such as the impact of减产 expectations on polycrystalline silicon [5][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Due to attacks on Russian ports and slow repairs, Kazakhstan's December CPC crude exports will hit a 14 - month low. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling. Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term price rebounds, but the long - term trend is towards a lower price center due to loose supply [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil rose sharply, mainly driven by geopolitical news. However, in the medium term, supply is abundant. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak as supply increases [20]. - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is marginally loose. Geopolitical conflicts boost prices from the cost side, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured pattern due to supply - demand [21]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, domestic precious metals are strong. Volatility is high in the short term [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Domestic spot supply - demand gives copper price adjustment pressure, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals have limited contradictions. It follows the rise of other metals, and long positions can be held with the 40 - day line as support [4]. - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and the price is weak until significant production cuts occur [5]. - **Zinc**: The bottom support is strong, and the price range is expected to be 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton in January [7]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton under the game of cost and consumption [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Policy news has a major impact. Wait for market disturbances to end and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the MA10 moving average. There are risks at high levels, and it is recommended to configure out - of - the - money put options for spring contracts [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong [11]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene supply is loose, and the prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are under downward pressure [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may run in a low - level range, and caustic soda is expected to have limited upward space [27]. - **PX & PTA**: PX has a strong expected pattern, and PTA's upward drive comes from PX. Keep a long - term long - allocation idea [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It oscillates at a low price, and the supply - demand may improve in the second quarter [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The trading logic returns to concerns about US soybean exports and South American production expectations. Soybean meal will follow the trend of US soybeans [34]. - **Vegetable Oils**: The macro - sentiment is improving, and the fundamentals of palm oil are less bearish. Pay attention to South American crop weather [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed is in excess globally. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds in the medium term and a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [36]. - **Corn**: The futures contract may oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [38]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of the main contract is expected to be weak in the first half of next year [39]. - **Eggs**: Take a long - term long - position view, but beware of rapid price increases due to capital front - running [40]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is supported by factors such as fast sales and low commercial inventory. Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price rebound may be limited [42]. - **Apples**: The market is bearish, and a short - position strategy is recommended [43]. Others - **Industrial Silicon**: Driven by the expectation of concentrated production cuts in the North, the futures price may maintain an oscillating pattern [13]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply pressure is gradually relieved, but the downstream demand is still weak. The market may continue to oscillate [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the demand has some resilience. The prices are likely to oscillate [15][16]. - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [17][18]. - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The spot price has risen, but there may be price fluctuations in the future. Pay attention to shipping companies' strategies during the Spring Festival [19]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the market is strongly oscillating [22]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, the price may oscillate weakly in a range, and a long - position strategy for the 5 - 9 spread can be considered in the long term [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates at the bottom. Consider a long - position strategy for the month - spread in the medium term [24]. - **Styrene**: The supply pressure is difficult to reverse, and the market purchases are mainly for rigid demand [25]. - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term upward space is limited, and the port inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is rising, and the index futures are also up. Pay attention to the relationship between the US dollar, precious metals, and domestic policies [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to become steeper [47].

燃料油方面当前市场交易逻辑仍主要围绕供应端展开:乌克兰袭击俄罗斯港口及海上物流导致年末出口减量, 委内瑞拉出口受阻对重质原油供应构成潜在干扰,短期内地缘因素仍将对价格形成一定支撑。但陆上库存及海 上浮仓均处于高位且继续累积,中期来看供应宽松仍是主要逻辑。疏燃料油方面,近期供应呈现增加趋势;丹 格特RFCC装置已进入检修,而阿祖尔CDU装置计划在年底前重启,两者均将带来边际供应增量。在此压力下，低 硫燃料油预计将延续弱势运行格局。据悉2026年第一批成品油1900万吨和低硫燃料油800万吨出口配额下发，规 模与2025年首批配额水平一致。 【沥青】 | 模 S = | | --- | | 4 72 15 | | 25 | | 1 1 | | . | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月25日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.c ...