Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: MEG Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Market: EG2601 closed at 4,213 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; EG2605 closed at 4,276 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract was 105,146 lots, and the open interest was 326,040 lots [7] - Market Outlook: The current supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is slightly weak, but due to factors such as intensified geopolitical conflicts, prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [7] Group 3: Industry News - Crude Oil Market: European and American crude oil futures stabilized after hitting a seven - week high. WTI November 2025 futures settled at $64.98 per barrel, down $0.01 (0.02%); Brent November 2025 futures settled at $69.42 per barrel, up $0.11 (0.16%) [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: In Zhangjiagang, the negotiation price for ethylene glycol before October 17 and in late October was 4,281 - 4,283 yuan/ton, with a basis premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton over EG2601 [8] - Industry Operation: The operations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester were stable [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Graphs: Include graphs of MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures prices, raw material price indices, PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories [10][15][16][18] - Data Source: Wind, Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][8][11]

Report Scope and Title - The report is a weekly LPG report titled "Geopolitical Conflicts Heat Up Again, Cost drives LPG Higher", dated September 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Report Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions have flared up again, and in the short term, cost will drive LPG to strengthen to a certain extent [6] - OPEC+ is further increasing crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, the US and Iran, and the US and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the fact that LPG supply remains abundant [6] - On the demand side, the peak season for the blending market is coming to an end, and it will be difficult to maintain high operating rates, so chemical demand may weaken [6] - PDH profits have significantly recovered, and subsequent operating rates may be supported [6] - Overall, LPG supply is very abundant. CP prices may be affected by peak - season stockpiling and strengthen periodically in the short term, but will follow oil prices in the long term. With high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, the upside for LPG is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - Propane CP expected average price is $544/ton, down $4/ton from the previous period, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease; butane CP expected average price is $524/ton, down $4/ton from the previous period, a 0.76% month - on - month decrease [5] - Propane CFR South China average price is $587/ton, down $7/ton from the previous period, a 1.18% month - on - month decrease; butane CFR South China average price is $567/ton, down $7/ton from the previous period, a 1.22% month - on - month decrease [5] - Domestic LPG supply has increased slightly. This period's LPG commercial volume is 539,200 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous period, a 0.13% increase [5] - Domestic LPG market demand is expected to increase. With the National Day holiday approaching, downstream still has restocking needs before the holiday, and the holiday will boost combustion consumption. In the chemical field, there are plans to start up plants for olefin and alkane deep - processing, including one alkylation unit and three PDH units, and the demand for ether - after C4 and propane is expected to increase [5] PART 02: LPG Fundamentals LPG Supply - Domestic - Data on the operating rates of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profits of major refineries, and LPG commercial volume in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [11][12] LPG Supply - Import - Data on LPG arrivals in China, import trade margins in the South China region, total monthly LPG imports in China, and LPG imports from different countries from 2021 - 2025 are presented [14][15][16] LPG Inventory - Data on LPG port inventory, refinery capacity utilization ratio, port capacity utilization ratio, factory - level inventory, and sales - to - production ratios in different regions in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [22][23][25] LPG Downstream Industry - Data on PDH unit operating rates, PDH production margins, MTBE isomerization etherification production margins, MTBE export factory capacity utilization rates, alkylation oil capacity utilization rates, and alkylation oil production margins in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [27][29][31] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data Import Cost: CP Forward and Current - Month Prices - Data on propane and butane CP contract prices, CP crude oil price trends, and propane spot prices in South China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [35][36] Spot: Domestic Refinery Civil Gas Prices and Import Premiums - Data on the ex - factory prices of civil LPG at Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao from 2021 - 2025 are presented [38][39][40] PART 04: LPG Other Data - Data on LPG main contract basis, the price difference between the first - and second - month contracts, and registered warehouse receipts at major delivery warehouses from 2021 - 2025 are presented [43][45] Key Strategy Recommendation - Futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil strengthened significantly this week. The EIA inventory showed a large drawdown during the week, indicating the end of the peak season. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts flared up again, causing the market to worry about crude oil supply to some extent. The logic of peak - season demand for crude oil is approaching its end, and geopolitical conflicts are unlikely to have a significant impact. The market is expected to shift back to trading based on weak fundamentals. On the supply side, 1.66 million barrels per day of production is planned to resume, and the OPEC+ meeting in early October may continue to increase production. The magnitude of the increase requires close attention. On the demand side, the economic data released by the US is mediocre, which may suppress demand, and inventories may enter a continuous accumulation phase. Overall, the contradiction of oversupply in the crude oil market may become more prominent, and oil prices are more likely to fall than rise [26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Core Indicators and Views This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending September 19 decreased by 3.821 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 3.42 million barrels in the previous week. As of September 22, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 1.833 million barrels to 14.922 million barrels. The EIA report showed that for the week ending September 19, US crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels to 13.501 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 0.15%. The average four - week supply of US crude oil products was 20.466 million barrels per day, a 0.94% increase compared to the same period last year. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 803,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. A refinery of Rosneft in Russia suspended its oil processing operations after a drone attack on September 20. Iraq reached an agreement to export oil from the Kurdish oil fields through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline. The total number of US oil rigs for the week ending September 26 was 424, compared with 418 in the previous week. The Iraqi oil ministry officials stated that the resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase the crude oil export volume to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day in the coming days, and Iraq's production and export levels will remain within the OPEC - set quota of 4.2 million barrels per day [10][11][14] - **Macroeconomics**: The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 3.2% in 2025 (previously forecasted as 2.9%) and 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). It also expects the US economic growth rate to slow down to 1.8% in 2025 (previously forecasted as 1.6%) and be 1.5% in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). The one - year loan prime rate in China as of September 22 was 3%, in line with expectations and the previous value. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in September was 52, in line with expectations but down from 53 in the previous month; the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in September was 53.9, slightly lower than the expected 54 and down from 54.5 in the previous month. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 20 was 218,000, lower than the expected 235,000. The monthly rate of durable goods orders in the US in August was 2.9%, far exceeding the expected - 0.5%. The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in the second quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.3%. The final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the US in the second quarter was 2.6%, slightly higher than the expected 2.5%, and the final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter was 2.5%, higher than the expected 1.7% [16] - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Trump stated at the United Nations General Assembly on September 23 that if Russia is unwilling to reach an agreement, the US is ready to impose tariffs. He also called on Europe to stop all energy purchases from Russia and urged the United Nations to take anti - Russian oil measures with the US. On September 24, Trump said that with the support of the EU, Ukraine is capable of fighting and regaining its entire territory. On September 23, Polish Prime Minister Tusk announced that the border crossing with Belarus would be reopened at 0:00 on the 25th. On September 25, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) stated that US fighter jets urgently took off to identify and intercept four Russian military aircraft flying near Alaska [18][22] - **Institutional Forecasts**: The EIA short - term energy outlook report expects the WTI crude oil price to be $64.16 per barrel in 2025 (previously expected to be $63.58) and $47.77 per barrel in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). It expects the Brent crude oil price to be $67.80 per barrel in 2025 (previously expected to be $67.22) and $51.43 per barrel in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast) [23] Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - Key indicators to be released next week include China's official manufacturing PMI for September on September 30, the number of US JOLTs job openings in August and the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for September on September 3, the EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 26 on October 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 27 on October 2, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US for September on October 3, and the total number of US oil rigs for the week ending October 3 on October 4 [24] 02 Price Basic Data Crude Oil Basic Price - The prices of Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle East main contract on September 26, 2025, were $69.22, $65.72, 491.3 yuan, and $70.62 respectively. The weekly changes were $2.54, $3.32, 4.3 yuan, and $1.66 respectively, with weekly change rates of 4%, 5%, 1%, and 2% respectively. The monthly changes were $2.52, $2.47, - 4.8 yuan, and $1.37 respectively, with monthly change rates of 4%, 4%, - 1%, and 2% respectively. The annual changes were - $1.87, - $1.95, - 31.9 yuan, and - $1.32 respectively, with annual change rates of - 3%, - 3%, - 6%, and - 2% respectively [33] Crude Oil Forward Price - The report provides the forward curves of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil from September 22 to September 26, 2025 [54] Crude Oil Monthly Spread - The report presents the daily data of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil monthly spreads, including the spreads between the first - month contract and the second - month contract, the first - month contract and the third - month contract, and the first - month contract and the sixth - month contract [56] Crude Oil Disk Spread - The report shows the daily data of the spreads between Brent and WTI, Brent and Oman, and the quality spread EFS (Brent - Dubai) [64][67] Main Oil Grade Premiums and Discounts - The report provides the monthly data of premiums and discounts for various oil grades, including Iran's OSP to Asia for light and heavy crude oil, Saudi Arabia's OSP to Asia for ultra - light, extra - light, light, medium, and heavy crude oil, Iraq's OSP to Asia for Basra medium and heavy crude oil, and Kuwait's FOB premiums to Asia [70][72][78] US Dollar Index - The report shows the relationship between the US dollar index and the WTI crude oil price [86] 03 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand World Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - **OPEC Supply - Demand Balance**: The OPEC supply - demand balance table shows the world's crude oil supply and demand situation from 2022 to 2026. The world's total demand is expected to increase from 99.87 million barrels per day in 2022 to 107.1 million barrels per day in 2026, with an average annual increase of about 1.5 million barrels per day. The world's total supply is expected to increase from 100.3 million barrels per day in 2022 to 107.67 million barrels per day in 2026. The supply - demand gap is expected to change from a surplus of 0.43 million barrels per day in 2022 to a slight shortage in some quarters in the future [97][99][100] - **EIA Supply - Demand Forecast**: The EIA's world supply - demand balance table shows that the world's total production is expected to increase from 102.6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024 to 106.99 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. The world's total consumption is expected to increase from 101.79 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024 to 105.66 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. The net extraction of global crude oil and other oil product inventories is expected to show a downward trend overall [107][109] OPEC Major Country Production - The OPEC+ quota table shows the production quotas of major OPEC countries from January to October 2025. The total quota of OPEC+ is expected to increase from 30.423 million barrels per day in January to 33.017 million barrels per day in October, with a total increase of 2.594 million barrels per day [94] Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - The report provides the supply and demand forecasts of OPEC and EIA, including the production and consumption of different regions and countries, as well as the changes in inventories [97][107] Refinery Maintenance Capacity - Not provided in the document Refining Profit - Not provided in the document Crude Oil Inventory - The OPEC report shows the changes in OECD commercial inventories, strategic reserve inventories, and total inventories from 2022 to 2026. The EIA report shows the net extraction of crude oil and other oil product inventories in the world, the US, and other OECD countries from the first quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2026, as well as the ending commercial inventories of crude oil and other oil products in OECD countries [100][109]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by fundamentals in the short term. With demand not significantly improving, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. - Whether the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December can be implemented depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter. Although the economic data of the eurozone has improved, the overall situation is not optimistic. - The uncertainty of tariffs is too high. Although it has improved in the short term, the market is generally in a wait - and - see mode before the holiday. Overall, freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not a real peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly. [7][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - This week, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2510 closed up 6.22%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 9%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1254.92, down 185.32 points from last week, a 12.9% month - on - month decline. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract were generally weak this week, and the market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode. [6][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis | News | Impact | | --- | --- | | The US issued a document officially finalizing a tariff agreement with the EU, confirming a 15% tariff on EU cars and auto parts since August 1st. Since September 1st, EU pharmaceuticals, aircraft and their parts, generic drugs and their raw materials, as well as some metals and ores have been included in the tariff exemption list. | Bullish | | Premier Li Qiang met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in New York, emphasizing the importance of trade and investment market openness and avoiding politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues. | Neutral | | The Ministry of Commerce responded to China - US soy trade and Boeing aircraft purchase negotiations, stating that the US should cancel unreasonable tariffs and that the biggest obstacle to normal China - US economic and trade cooperation is US unilateral restrictions. | Neutral | | The OECD released a mid - term outlook report, raising the forecast of global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2% (up 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast) and keeping the 2026 forecast at 2.9%. The economic growth forecasts of the US, eurozone, Japan, and the UK for this year were slightly raised. | Slightly Bullish | [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - This week, the basis and spread of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts converged. - The export container freight rate index declined this week. - Container ship capacity continued to grow. The BDI and BPI rebounded this week due to geopolitical factors. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar mainly oscillated. [25][27][30][32] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core view, the freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase of shipping companies' opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information. [7][38]

Core Insights - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, with gold at a critical juncture influenced by strong economic data and a rising dollar, alongside geopolitical conflicts and buying support [1] Economic Data Impact - The U.S. Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8% from a previous 3.3%, and initial jobless claims fell to 218,000, exceeding expectations, which led to the dollar index reaching a three-week high [3] - A strong dollar puts direct pressure on gold, causing prices to briefly dip to $3722 per ounce before rebounding to close at $3749.18 per ounce, a 0.38% increase [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut in October have slightly decreased from 90% to 85%, indicating a marginal impact of economic resilience on easing expectations [3] Geopolitical Risks and Safe-Haven Demand - Despite hawkish economic signals, ongoing global geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, are elevating market risk aversion [4] - Domestic risks such as potential government shutdowns and new tariffs on heavy truck imports are also contributing to heightened market anxiety [4] - The combination of buying support during price dips and safe-haven demand is creating a strong floor for gold prices, making significant declines unlikely [4] PCE Inflation Data Significance - The market is awaiting the August core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, with expectations of a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 2.7% year-over-year rise [5] - Higher-than-expected inflation data could reinforce the notion of prolonged high interest rates, exerting significant pressure on gold prices, while softer data could bolster rate cut beliefs and push gold prices higher [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Gold is currently in a "seesaw" position, balancing between the pressures of a strong dollar and economic data against the support from geopolitical risks and rate cut expectations [7] - Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the PCE data release, with investors advised to closely monitor data performance, Federal Reserve officials' comments, and geopolitical developments, as these factors will shape the future trajectory of gold prices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply-side changes are expected to be the dominant factor in pricing, while the demand side currently lacks a significant growth driver. OPEC+ aims to increase production to maintain market share, but actual growth may fall short of targets, weakening the impact of supply increases on the market. Non-OPEC+ supply in South America is expected to gradually increase, while low oil prices continue to suppress US shale oil production. The market anticipates supply growth, but the lack of significant inventory accumulation indicates that the risk of oversupply remains to be verified. Geopolitical conflicts introduce many uncertainties, with the stability of Russian supply likely to be the focus of future geopolitical trading. Brent crude oil prices are expected to oscillate within the range of $60 - $75 per barrel in the short term. If geopolitical conflicts lead to a substantial supply disruption, oil prices could face significant upward pressure [5][80] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 25Q3 Oil Price Trend Review - Narrow Oscillation, Declining Volatility - After a pulse-like fluctuation caused by geopolitical conflicts in mid-to-late June, oil prices in Q3 remained in a narrow range, with the benchmark oil spread falling from its peak. Oil price volatility continued to decline, but the central price was higher than in Q2, with an expected average Brent price of around $68 per barrel, a slight increase from $66 per barrel in Q2. Geopolitical conflicts have not significantly affected supply, but there is a high risk of escalated sanctions against Russia by the US and Europe, which may become a key trading factor in the next stage. In Q3, the supply-demand fundamentals were balanced, with a moderate decline in inventory. Despite OPEC+ accelerating production target increases, the oversupply issue was not prominent during the peak demand season, resulting in a lack of clear directional drivers for oil prices [15] 3.2 OPEC+ Firmly Maintains Market Share, Uncertainty Remains on Whether Actual Production Increases Will Meet Targets - Since April, OPEC+ has accelerated the exit from voluntary production cuts, completing the 2.2 million barrels per day cut one year ahead of schedule by the end of September. On October 1st, OPEC+ began to exit the second layer of 1.66 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts, but the full or partial exit will depend on market conditions. Although the planned production increase in October is much smaller than in previous months, the moderate recovery of oil prices in Q3 and the existence of overproduction are the main reasons for continued production increases. - Compared to the increase in nominal production targets, actual production potential has a greater impact on the market. From Q2 onwards, although OPEC+ has continuously raised production targets, oil prices rebounded moderately in July - August, as actual production increases were less than expected, preventing a supply shock. Therefore, whether actual production can meet the planned increase in Q4 will be the focus of market attention. - According to OPEC monthly reports, the production of 8 voluntary production cut countries increased to 32.18 million barrels per day in August, lower than the target increase of 1.92 million barrels per day. Iraq and Russia's production increases were not significant, both remaining below the target by about 100,000 barrels per day on average, while Kazakhstan has been overproducing by about 320,000 barrels per day. Other countries have generally achieved production increases, with Saudi Arabia temporarily overproducing in June to address supply disruptions but compensating in July. - There are differences in the market's assessment of some member countries' production. According to the IEA, most member countries are overproducing. OPEC+'s updated compensation production cut plan shows that most countries still need to make up for overproduction, with a total of 4.78 million barrels per day to be compensated by the end of next June, indicating that some members are still overproducing. - Saudi Arabia and the UAE have significant theoretical idle production capacities of nearly 2.5 million and 1 million barrels per day respectively, with high growth potential. Other members are limited by idle capacity, and their actual production increase speed is likely to be lower than the nominal target. - In terms of exports, OPEC+ production cut countries' exports have slightly recovered from their low levels in the second half of last year, but the upward trend is not obvious. The average export volume of 8 voluntary production cut countries from April - August was 20.26 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 410,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's exports increased only in June, while the UAE's exports have been rising since Q2. If geopolitical conflicts lead to a decline in Russian or Iranian exports, it may benefit the exports of other Middle Eastern oil types [18][23][28] 3.3 Geopolitical Conflicts Persist, the Stability of Russian Supply May Become the Focus 3.3.1 The Stability of Russian Supply Faces Increasing Challenges - Russia's supply has declined moderately this year, with an average seaborne crude oil export volume of about 3.36 million barrels per day in the first 8 months, a year-on-year decrease of 150,000 barrels per day. In July - August, due to drone attacks on refineries, more crude oil was exported, leading to higher-than-seasonal export volumes. Russia's seaborne crude oil exports are relatively stable, with exports to China and India at 1.14 million and 1.72 million barrels per day respectively, both showing a year-on-year decrease of about 80,000 barrels per day. Russia's pipeline exports to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline remain at about 200,000 barrels per day, while exports to the Czech Republic have basically stopped since Q2. - Russian energy facilities have been increasingly targeted by drone attacks since August, with refineries and ports being the main targets. On September 12th, the Primorsk port was attacked for the first time, increasing the risk of supply disruptions. In August, there were 15 reports of drone attacks on Russian refineries, with a record high of 1.5 million barrels per day of refining capacity taken offline. Although the increase in attack frequency does not necessarily lead to a significant increase in processing losses, it still has a negative impact on oil product exports. Russia's oil product exports in the first 8 months were 2.36 million barrels per day, a year-on-year decrease of 150,000 barrels per day, with diesel exports reaching a new low in August. - The EU and the US have adopted a tougher stance towards Russia. In July, the EU passed the 18th round of sanctions, including lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil to $47.6 per barrel and banning the import of oil products refined from Russian crude oil starting from January 21, 2026. The EU is also formulating the 19th round of sanctions. The US has threatened to impose high "secondary tariffs" on countries importing Russian oil, and has called on G7 countries to adopt stricter sanctions. Although the details and implementation of these policies are uncertain, the market has not fully priced in their potential impact on supply. - China, India, and Turkey are the main buyers of Russian crude oil, accounting for 46%, 36%, and 6% of Russia's exports respectively. Currently, there is no sign of major buyers significantly reducing their imports. However, due to the increasing risk of sanctions, there is a high risk of a decline in imports from Turkey and India in the future. If this happens, the surplus Urals oil will need to find new buyers. China theoretically has the capacity to adjust trade flows, but the Urals oil is not economically viable for Chinese refineries, and if sanctions intensify, it may also affect the procurement willingness of Chinese state-owned refineries [31][33][38] 3.3.2 Declining Transportation Efficiency Leads to a Marginal Decrease in Iranian Crude Oil Exports - Iranian crude oil production has shown a marginal decline since June, dropping to about 3.2 million barrels per day in August. Exports have also decreased slightly since June, with preliminary data showing 1.4 million barrels per day in August, compared to an average of 1.65 million barrels per day in other months. The main factor affecting Iranian exports is the US's escalating sanctions, which have led to a reduction in the number of unsanctioned vessels, slower delivery, and an increase in floating storage to nearly 27 million barrels at the end of August. The discount on Iranian crude oil has widened from -$1 per barrel at the beginning of the year to about -$6 per barrel in mid-September. Weak demand and approaching year-end import quota shortages may limit Iranian oil procurement by independent refineries in Shandong. However, due to the economic advantages of sensitive oil, Iranian supply is unlikely to decline significantly without a supply disruption at the source [45] 3.4 Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth is Highly Certain 3.4.1 South American Production Growth Outlook is Stable - South American production is gradually increasing, and the relatively stable long-term oil price outlook supports the commissioning of deep-water projects. The period before the second half of next year is a concentrated commissioning period, with a focus on Brazil and Guyana. From the second half of 2026, the growth momentum of non-OPEC+ production is expected to slow down, reducing the negative impact on supply-demand balance. - Brazil's estimated crude oil production in the first seven months was 3.65 million barrels per day, an increase of about 300,000 barrels per day compared to last year. After the commissioning of new offshore production platforms, capacity utilization has gradually increased. Production is expected to stabilize at 3.9 - 4 million barrels per day after this round of commissioning, with growth rates of about 350,000 and 170,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 respectively. - Guyana's production in the first 7 months was stable at 640,000 barrels per day. The Yellowtail project was commissioned ahead of schedule in early August, and exports began in late August. With a capacity of 250,000 barrels per day, production is expected to reach 890,000 barrels per day by the end of this year and remain at this level until the end of next year. The Uaru project, with a planned capacity of 250,000 barrels per day, is expected to be commissioned at the end of next year, bringing production close to 1 million barrels per day. The production growth rates in 2025 and 2026 are expected to be 130,000 barrels per day each [49][50] 3.4.2 The Suppressed Growth Potential of US Shale Oil is Difficult to Reverse Significantly - According to EIA data, the average US crude oil production in the first half of the year was 13.39 million barrels per day, an increase of 180,000 barrels per day compared to last year, with a further slowdown in the growth rate. The number of US oil rigs has been declining significantly since late April, reaching 416 by the second week of September, the lowest level since October 2021, a decrease of about 15% from the peak in March. The number of fracturing equipment has also decreased, reaching 169 by the second week of September, returning to the level in April 2021, a decrease of about 20% from the peak. Low oil prices have significantly suppressed the capital expenditure willingness of US upstream producers. - Productivity data from shale oil regions show a slight decline in the DUC number in the Permian region, which has supplemented the well completion number to some extent. The improvement in well production efficiency is mainly due to the increasing efficiency of rig use, with the number of new wells per rig in the Permian region rising to 1.7. However, the new well production/well completion number ratio has not shown a significant upward trend, indicating that producers are currently focusing on optimizing capital use efficiency while controlling capital expenditure. Given the expected breakeven price of about $60 per barrel and the rapid decline in rig numbers after the oil price drop in Q2, shale oil producers remain highly sensitive to medium-term oil prices. Therefore, without a significant increase in the oil price center, producers are unlikely to significantly increase capital expenditure. The EIA's September short-term energy outlook predicts a 210,000 barrels per day increase in US crude oil production in 2025 and a 140,000 barrels per day decrease in 2026 [54][58] 3.5 Global Inventory Patterns are Divergent, and Demand Growth is Expected to Remain at a Low Rate 3.5.1 China's Actual Consumption is Affected by New Energy Substitution, while Stockpiling Demand is Stable - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's above-scale industrial crude oil processing volume in the first eight months was 488 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The monthly processing volume has significantly recovered since June, approaching the 2023 high, but the refinery operating rate remains divergent. Independent refineries in Shandong have an operating rate of less than 50% for most of the time, indicating that low refining margins and peak demand for major oil products continue to have a negative impact on their operations. State-owned refineries have maintained an operating rate of over 80% since the end of Q2 maintenance, supporting the processing volume. Customs data shows that China's crude oil imports in the first eight months were 376 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.5%, maintaining a low growth rate. The production of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in the first eight months, and the yield of these products has dropped to about 55% this year. - China's gasoline and diesel consumption shows no significant improvement, as the substitution effect of new energy vehicles and LNG heavy trucks continues to suppress demand growth. The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has slowed down, reaching about 54.5% in August, slightly higher than last year's peak. The penetration rate of pure electric heavy trucks and LNG heavy trucks has approached 20%. - According to Kpler data, China's onshore crude oil inventory has been increasing, with both commercial and strategic reserves rising. As of the end of August, the inventory increased by 47 million barrels compared to the end of last year, equivalent to nearly 200,000 barrels per day. Industry sources indicate that an oil price below $65 per barrel will stimulate continuous stockpiling demand, which may further increase if oil prices decline [61][63] 3.5.2 OECD Inventories are Low, and the Risk of Oversupply has not Materialized - In Q3, the gasoline crack spread in the European and American markets was similar to last year's level in summer and significantly higher than last year's level since late August. The diesel crack spread has been rising since June, supported by moderate demand improvement and low inventory. The stable crack spread of major oil products has supported the growth of processing volumes in major refining regions. Although about 600,000 barrels per day of refining capacity is expected to be permanently shut down in the European and American markets, the US refinery processing volume increased by 230,000 barrels per day year-on-year, while the EU processing volume decreased by about 140,000 barrels per day. Processing volumes in regions with new refining capacity have generally increased, with Nigeria's crude oil processing volume reaching about 440,000 barrels per day in the first seven months, and preliminary shipping data indicating a significant increase in net oil product exports in Q3. - Global onshore crude oil inventory has been rising since Q2, but the increase is mainly concentrated in the Chinese market. OECD market inventories remain low, with changes in line with seasonal patterns. European and American gasoline and diesel inventories are also generally low, with gasoline inventories showing a seasonal decline similar to last year, while diesel inventories are significantly lower than last year. Diesel consumption has increased significantly year-on-year, with US diesel consumption increasing by 150,000 barrels per day in the first half of the year according to EIA data. In the European market, improved manufacturing sentiment supports marginal demand improvement, but imports are constrained. European gasoline consumption increased by nearly 100,000 barrels per day in the first seven months, while US gasoline consumption was basically flat in the first half of the year, with high-frequency data indicating a slightly lower consumption during the traditional peak season compared to last year. The low OECD inventories indicate that the expected inventory build-up under continuous production increases has not occurred. - The relatively stable crack spread and low inventory in the European and American markets suggest that the supply-demand balance of major oil products has not deteriorated significantly. However, the market remains cautious about the demand growth outlook. The three major institutions expect low global demand growth rates this year, with the EIA and IEA forecasting growth rates of about 700,000 and 900,000 barrels per day respectively. The EIA and OPEC expect an improvement in growth next year, while the IEA maintains a low growth forecast. According to seasonal patterns, oil product inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4. If the inventory build-up rate in Q4 is not significantly faster than in previous years, the demand side is unlikely to drive a significant downward break in oil prices [66][68][77] 3.6 Investment Recommendations - Supply-side changes are expected to continue to dominate pricing, while the demand side lacks a significant growth driver due to new energy substitution and trade frictions. OPEC+ aims to increase production to maintain market share, but actual growth may be lower than targets, weakening the impact of supply increases on the market. Non-OPEC+ supply in South America is expected to gradually increase, while low oil prices continue to suppress US shale oil production. The market anticipates supply growth, but the lack of significant inventory accumulation indicates that the risk of oversupply remains to be verified. Geopolitical conflicts introduce many uncertainties, with the stability of Russian supply likely to be the focus of future geopolitical trading. Brent crude oil prices are expected to oscillate within the range of $60 -

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices, surpassing $3,790 per ounce, is driven by three key factors: expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and weakening dollar credibility [1][3][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - **Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations**: Since August 2025, U.S. inflation data has eased, leading to a market expectation of over 90% for a rate cut in September. Historically, gold performs strongly during rate cut cycles. Concerns over potential manipulation of Fed policies have also led to a loss of confidence in the dollar, driving funds towards gold as a safe haven [4]. - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and heightened tensions in the Middle East, along with uncertainties surrounding U.S. election policies, have directly contributed to the rise in gold prices [5]. - **Weakening Dollar Credibility**: The U.S. national debt has exceeded $37 trillion, significantly surpassing market expectations. Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank having added gold for ten consecutive months, marking a shift where gold's share in reserves has surpassed that of the euro [7]. Group 2: Investment Options for Individuals - **Gold ETFs**: These have low entry barriers and high liquidity, such as the Huaan Gold ETF (code 518880), which is directly linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange's AU99.99 spot contracts. The advantages include a minimum investment of 1 gram and low transaction fees of 0.04%, with T+0 trading support. However, short-term price fluctuations can be influenced by market sentiment [10]. - **Physical Gold**: Suitable for long-term holding, options include bank gold bars, gold accumulation plans, and branded gold jewelry. It's important to note that jewelry often carries a high premium (approximately 15% processing fee), and recovery may involve discounts. Accumulation gold is recommended for dollar-cost averaging [12]. - **Gold Stocks**: These offer high volatility and potential for significant returns, represented by companies like Western Gold and Huayu Mining. However, they are subject to broader market performance and company-specific factors, leading to greater price fluctuations compared to gold itself [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - **Avoiding High Prices**: Current gold prices are at historical highs, and short-term corrections may occur due to Federal Reserve policy changes or easing geopolitical tensions. For instance, gold prices fell from $3,500 to $3,120 in April 2024, a decline of 11% [17]. - **Gradual Investment**: Implementing a dollar-cost averaging strategy through regular investments in gold ETFs or accumulation gold can help smooth out purchase costs, such as investing $500 monthly [18]. - **Dynamic Adjustments**: If gold prices exceed $4,000, partial profit-taking may be advisable while maintaining a core position. It is recommended to limit gold allocation to 5%-10% of total household assets rather than making concentrated bets [19].

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached new historical highs, with London gold spot prices hitting $3748.88 per ounce and New York futures surpassing $3770 per ounce on September 22, 2023 [2] - As of September 23, 2023, gold prices continued to rise, with London gold reaching $3759.16 per ounce and Shanghai gold trading at 850 yuan per gram [2] - Since 2025, international gold prices have increased by nearly 43%, while domestic gold prices have risen approximately 38% [3] Group 2 - The primary driver of rising gold prices is the Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle, leading to a weaker dollar and a potential upward trend in gold prices [6][7] - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern tensions, have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [8] - Central banks around the world have significantly increased their gold reserves, with global central bank purchases exceeding 1000 tons annually over the past three years, nearly double the previous decade's average [11] Group 3 - The current economic environment, characterized by a weak U.S. labor market and ongoing geopolitical tensions, supports a favorable outlook for gold prices [14] - Investment strategies for ordinary investors include diversifying into gold through paper gold or gold ETFs, rather than purchasing physical gold due to high storage and transaction costs [18][20] - Silver prices have also reached a near 14-year high, with prices hitting $43.788 per ounce on September 22, 2023 [23]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-24原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期多空分析 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 4.盘面：20日均线偏平，价格在均线下方；中性 1.基本面：俄罗斯能源部副部长表示，如有必要，可能会进一步限制燃料出口，俄罗斯已将汽油出口 禁令延长至9月底，当局表示，如果汽油短缺问题持续存在，限制措施可能会延长至10月；伊拉克库尔 德斯坦恢复石油出口的协议陷入停滞，由于两家关键生产商要求债务偿还担保，伊拉克库尔德斯坦地 区至土耳其的输油管道石油出口仍未重启；偏多 2.基差：9月23日，阿曼原油现货价为68.61元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为67.48元/桶，基差35.01元/ 桶，现货升水 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions for each sector [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose strong tariffs on Russia, and Powell emphasizes employment and inflation risks. Gold prices are driven up by Fed's potential rate - cut expectations and Trump's tariff sanctions, but there is a risk of correction before the National Day holiday in China [13][14]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of price correction in the short term [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Three Fed officials think setting an inflation target range is more beneficial. Trump believes Ukraine can retake all its territory, and Powell says US stocks are "valued quite high". The US dollar index is expected to be weak in the short term [16][17][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Wang Yi meets with US congressmen, and China's education reaches the average level of high - income countries. The A - share market shows a V - shaped reversal with increased trading volume, and the technology sector remains resilient. Short - term attention should be paid to trading volume changes [20][21]. - Investment advice: Consider moderate profit - taking [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. US September Markit manufacturing and services PMI decline. Powell mentions that the stock market is over - valued, and there may be short - term fluctuations, but the overall outlook is still positive [23][24][27]. - Investment advice: Although valuation concerns may cause short - term disturbances, maintain a bullish view overall [28]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.09 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is in a weak sentiment, and short - term trading should follow a range - bound strategy [29]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term and avoid chasing up [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Domestic soybean mills' operating rates and soybean crushing volumes during the National Day holiday are reported, and some mills in Guangdong stop production due to a typhoon. Argentina suspends export taxes on grains and oilseed meals, affecting the market [32][33]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for now, and pay attention to whether M2601 can be effectively supported at 2900 [34]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreases. Argentina's tax - exemption policy impacts the global oil market, but short - term oversold rebound opportunities can be considered [35][36][37]. - Investment advice: Consider short - term oversold rebound opportunities in the P2601 contract, but control positions [37]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Muyuan Co., Ltd. establishes an overseas business team. The pig market is in a negative feedback stage, with the short - term trend following the spot market and a medium - long - term view of shorting on rebounds [38]. - Investment advice: Short on rebounds unilaterally and continuously monitor reverse spreads [39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Northeast corn spot prices continue to decline. With the approaching of the new corn season, the market expects a bumper harvest and normal listing, and the mid - term view is bearish [40]. - Investment advice: Hold existing short positions [40]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The total new contracts signed by five major construction central enterprises in the first eight months exceed 4.7 trillion yuan, and the average construction machinery operating rate in August is 43.42%. Steel prices are range - bound with limited upward and downward space [41][42]. - Investment advice: Expect a range - bound rebound before the holiday, but the space is limited [43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - China's corn starch exports in August decline. The price of raw corn stops falling, and the export demand is not expected to have a significant positive impact on the fundamentals [44]. - Investment advice: The long - term supply - demand situation of starch is bearish for the corn - starch price spread, but pay attention to potential changes in the regional price spread after the large - scale listing of Northeast corn [44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are growing normally, and the futures price of the main contract CJ601 shows a small increase. The price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [45][46]. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to be range - bound, and pay attention to the development of jujube fruits and purchasing situation [46]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - An electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is expected to start in stages by the end of 2025. The alumina market has an oversupply problem, and the import pressure is increasing [47][48]. - Investment advice: Short on rallies [49]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A photovoltaic component tender sets a price limit. Polysilicon prices are expected to be range - bound, and the spot price is not expected to fall in October. The component price is expected to be range - bound, and the terminal demand may decline [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The polysilicon price is expected to be range - bound between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and consider going long at the current level [53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's silicon wafer exports in August increase. The market is expected to accumulate inventory in September - October and reduce inventory in November - December. The strategy of going long on dips has a higher probability of success [54][55]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing up [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - High US tariffs disrupt the stainless - steel market. The nickel market has potential supply - side disturbances, and the low - valued nickel has long - term investment value. Consider positive spreads [56]. - Investment advice: The global nickel inventory is high, but low - valued nickel has long - term investment value. Consider positive spreads [56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India initiates an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese copper cables. The macro - support for copper prices weakens, but the inventory accumulation pressure eases. Copper prices are expected to continue to be range - bound at a high level [57][61]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - sided trading, and be cautious during the holiday. Also, wait and see for arbitrage [61]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company plans to issue bonds for debt refinancing, and a lithium carbonate project is put into production. The market is in a de - stocking stage, and the price may fall after the demand peak [62][63][64]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish strategy, be cautious when shorting in the short term, and consider shorting on rebounds in the medium term [64]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead shows a deep contango. The domestic lead market has improved demand, and the social inventory has reached an inflection point. The price is expected to be range - bound and bullish [65]. - Investment advice: Try to go long on dips for single - sided trading and consider positive spreads for arbitrage [65]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc shows a backwardation, and some zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong stop production due to a typhoon. The market has a potential soft - squeeze risk, and the domestic zinc price is affected. Consider positive spreads [66][67]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - sided trading, consider positive spreads for arbitrage, and maintain a positive - spread strategy for domestic - foreign trading [67]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreases, and Russia discusses the possibility of a diesel export ban. Oil prices are range - bound [68][69]. - Investment advice: Wait for new market drivers as oil prices are range - bound [70]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on September 23 increases, but the market volume does not expand significantly. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [70][71]. - Investment advice: Expect a further decline in the short term [71]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong varies. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be stable in the short term [72][73][74]. - Investment advice: The spot price is falling, but the downward space of the futures price may be limited [74]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is basically stable. The market is expected to be range - bound and bearish [75][76]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to be range - bound and bearish [76]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in China decreases. The market is weak, but the low valuation makes it difficult for the price to fall further. Pay attention to domestic policy support [77]. - Investment advice: The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits further decline. Pay attention to domestic policy support [77]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's pure benzene import data in August is reported. The pure benzene and styrene markets are range - bound and bearish. The supply of styrene is affected by maintenance, and the demand has short - term resilience [78][79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to how to solve the inventory contradiction after the peak season, and the industrial chain profit may be further compressed [80]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreases, and the market trading volume is acceptable. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and the long - term demand is weak. Pay attention to production cuts and new capacity [81][82][83]. - Investment advice: The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and pay attention to production cuts and new capacity [83]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price continues to fall. The supply may increase in Q4, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [84][85]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish in the short term [86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea import and export data in August is reported. The supply pressure exists, and the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing. Pay attention to policy support [87][88][89]. - Investment advice: The urea futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended that strategic reserve buyers make dispersed purchases [89]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price decreases, and the market trading is normal. The demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation is postponed. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish [90][91]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish in the short term [92]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe is normal, and the futures price falls. The supply is high, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to be shorted on rallies [93]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [94]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe is stable. The market is weak, and the 01 contract has a high premium over the spot price. Consider a long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy [95][96]. - Investment advice: Consider a long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy [96]. 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The world's first China - Europe Arctic container express route is launched. The spot container freight rate is falling, and the 10 - month contract price may decline slightly. Consider short - term arbitrage opportunities [97][98]. - Investment advice: Consider taking profit on the 10 - month contract on dips, pay attention to low - long opportunities for the 12 - month contract after a significant decline, and consider short - term positive spreads for the 12 - 02 contract [98].