1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, which may drive non - ferrous metal varieties including nickel to strengthen. Each metal has different supply - demand situations, and price trends vary accordingly [1][3][5][7][8][10][11][14][16][18][20] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.97% last week, and LME copper rose 0.99% to $9906/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.7 million tons, with SHFE inventory decreasing by 0.2 to 8.0 million tons, LME inventory increasing by 0.3 to 15.9 million tons, and COMEX inventory increasing by 0.6 to 25.2 million tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons [1] - **Market situation**: The spot import window remained open, the premium of Yangshan copper increased. The LME market was at a discount, and the domestic spot had a higher premium. The supply of scrap copper was tight, and the operating rates of refined copper rod and cable enterprises declined [1] - **Price forecast**: The price is expected to be volatile and strong, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 78600 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9780 - 10050/ton [1] Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose 0.46% to $2619/ton on Friday, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20725 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the three domestic regions decreased by 0.55 million tons to 45.7 million tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in Foshan and Wuxi increased by 0.15 million tons to 9.5 million tons [3] - **Market situation**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic spot was at a discount. The downstream maintained rigid demand procurement [3] - **Price forecast**: The price support is strong. If the inventory inflection point appears, the price will have stronger upward momentum. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20600 - 20850 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2590 - 2650/ton [3] Lead - **Price**: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.13% to 16883 yuan/ton last Friday, and LME lead 3S fell $2 to $1990/ton [5] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 6.52 million tons [5] - **Market situation**: The lead concentrate inventory decreased, the processing fee continued to decline. The production of primary smelters was high, and the finished product inventory increased. The raw materials of secondary smelters were in short supply, and some enterprises had maintenance. The downstream operating rate decreased slightly [5] - **Price forecast**: The price is expected to be strong due to the high expectation of Fed rate cuts and the narrowing supply [5] Zinc - **Price**: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.16% to 22140 yuan/ton last Friday, and LME zinc 3S rose $19.5 to $2796.5/ton [7] - **Inventory**: The zinc concentrate entered the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the social inventory of zinc ingots continued to increase rapidly to 14.45 million tons [7] - **Market situation**: The supply of zinc concentrate increased, the smelting output continued to rise, and the downstream operating rate did not improve significantly [7] - **Price forecast**: There is a divergence between the macro background and the industrial situation. The short - term decline space is limited, showing a low - level oscillation pattern [7] Tin - **Price**: The domestic tin price soared last week [8] - **Supply**: The supply of tin ore was in short supply. A large - scale tin smelter in Yunnan planned to have maintenance in September, and Indonesia's export was affected. The production of refined tin in September is expected to decline by 29.89% [8] - **Demand**: It was in the consumption off - season, and the traditional consumption areas were weak. Although AI computing power increased some demand, it had limited impact on the overall demand [8] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of tin ingots increased slightly to 10002 tons [8] - **Price forecast**: The price is expected to be strong and oscillating [8] Nickel - **Nickel ore**: The price remained stable. The supply in Indonesia was relatively sufficient, and the iron mills' acceptance of the price was okay [10] - **Nickel iron**: The supply increase was limited due to the loss of domestic iron mills. The demand was supported by the expected increase in stainless steel production in August and September [10] - **Intermediate products**: The supply was tight, and the cost increased. The price is expected to be strong [10] - **Price forecast**: The short - term macro atmosphere is positive. The price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14500 - 16500/ton [11][12] Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index fell 0.32% on Friday and 4.05% last week. The LC2511 contract price fell 1.23% on Friday and 2.25% last week [14] - **Market situation**: The market sentiment cooled down, and the supply - demand relationship was slowly repaired. The inventory decreased due to the decline in lithium mica supply [14] - **Price forecast**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's main contract is expected to operate in the range of 74500 - 79900 yuan/ton [14] Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 0.95% to 3031 yuan/ton on August 29 [16] - **Market situation**: The supply of ore was disturbed, and the macro sentiment improved [16] - **Price forecast**: The short - term downward space is limited, and the oversupply situation cannot support continuous price rebound. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton [16] Stainless Steel - **Price**: The main contract closed at 12815 yuan/ton on Friday, down 0.27% [18] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 0.81% to 108.30 million tons, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 0.63% to 65.45 million tons [18] - **Market situation**: The downstream demand was insufficient, and the trading was mainly for on - demand replenishment. The demand is expected to pick up in the peak season [18] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract remained at 20350 yuan/ton [20] - **Inventory**: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three domestic regions increased by 0.01 to 3.30 million tons [20] - **Market situation**: It was transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, the cost support was strong, and the market activity tended to increase [20] - **Price forecast**: The price may run at a high level [20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The processing fee of copper concentrates has fallen into the negative range, and Codelco in Chile has lowered its annual production forecast, intensifying supply concerns [4]. - The social inventory has decreased this week, and the absolute quantity remains at a low level. The approaching peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" drive the expectation of marginal improvement in demand [4]. - The three major exchanges, LME, COMEX, and SHFE, have collectively accumulated inventory, reflecting weak terminal consumption during the off - season [4]. - The uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm has increased, and the decline in market sentiment suppresses the support of the financial attribute [4]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper are mixed, with the contradiction between tight ore supply and inventory accumulation coexisting. Coupled with the repeated macro - drivers, it will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, waiting for the verification of peak - season demand and the clarification of policy signals [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) | Futures Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Position | Weekly Position Change | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main Contract | 79,410 yuan/ton | +0.91% | 173,826 | +52,924 | 71,061 | | Shanghai Copper Index Weighted | 79,394 yuan/ton | +0.95% | 479,332 | +18,695 | 156,498 | | International Copper | 70,490 yuan/ton | +1.08% | 3,755 | -217 | 4,869 | | LME Copper 3 - month | $9,839.5/ton | +1.22% | 239,014 | -38,282 | 14,271 | | COMEX Copper | $454.45/lb | +2.17% | 105,404 | +64,381 | 28,789 | [6] 3.2 Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,390 | +560 | +0.71% | | Shanghai Wumaohui | yuan/ton | 79,355 | +530 | +0.67% | | Guangdong Southern Storage | yuan/ton | 79,220 | +470 | +0.6% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,450 | +500 | +0.63% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 250 | +100 | +66.67% | | Shanghai Wumaohui Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 185 | +50 | +37.04% | | Guangdong Southern Storage Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 210 | +45 | +27.27% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 175 | +15 | +9.38% | | LME Copper (Spot/3 - month) Premium/Discount | $/ton | -82.79 | +7.96 | -8.77% | | LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) Premium/Discount | $/ton | -167.53 | -1.05 | +0.63% | [11][12] 3.3 Advanced Copper Data (Weekly) | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | 330.65 | +95.84 | +40.82% | | Copper Concentrate TC | $/ton | -41.06 | -2.86 | +7.49% | | Copper - Aluminum Ratio | Ratio | 3.8002 | -0.0087 | -0.23% | | Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference | yuan/ton | 1,252.66 | +218.62 | +21.14% | [13] 3.4 Copper Inventory (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Value | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 21,412 | -2,736 | -11.33% | | International Copper Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 5,597 | -528 | -8.62% | | Shanghai Copper Inventory | tons | 79,748 | -1,950 | -2.39% | | LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 144,850 | -750 | -0.52% | | LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipt | tons | 13,100 | +2,350 | +21.86% | | LME Copper Inventory | tons | 157,950 | +1,600 | +1.02% | | COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 141,869 | +4,626 | +3.37% | | COMEX Copper Unregistered Warehouse Receipt | tons | 133,357 | -1,096 | -0.82% | | COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 275,226 | +3,530 | +1.3% | | Copper Ore Port Inventory | million tons | 47.3 | +5.1 | +12.09% | | Social Inventory | million tons | 41.82 | +0.43 | +1.04% | [19][21] 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) | Production Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Production | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 127 | +14% | 862.3 | +9.9% | | Copper Products Production | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 216.9 | +8.3% | 1423.7 | +9.4% | [24] 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) | Capacity Type | Date | Unit | Annual Total Capacity | Capacity Utilization | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Refined Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 1,584 | 61.32% | -1% | -0.85% | | Scrap Copper Rod Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 819 | 26.73% | -5.28% | -3.43% | | Copper Plate and Strip Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 359 | 65.73% | -3% | -5.66% | | Copper Bar Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 228.65 | 50.45% | -1.07% | -1.47% | | Copper Tube Capacity Utilization | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 278.3 | 67.88% | -4.37% | +3.83% | [26] 3.7 Copper Element Imports (Monthly) | Import Type | Date | Unit | Monthly Value | Monthly YoY | Cumulative Value | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Concentrate Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | million tons or % | 256.0072 | +18% | 1,731.7445 | +8% | | Anode Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 84,217 | +19% | 466,925 | -12% | | Cathode Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 296,896 | +8% | 1,943,043 | -6% | | Scrap Copper Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 190,078 | -2% | 1,335,483 | -1% | | Copper Products Import | 2025 - 07 - 31 | tons or % | 480,000 | +10% | 3,110,000 | -2.6% | [30]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On August 28, the domestic commodity futures market experienced more declines than gains, with the main contract for the European shipping index dropping over 3% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1432.26 points, down 0.05% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Iron Ore and Corn Market - Iron ore saw a recovery with a 1.74% increase, driven by a rebound in domestic steel production, with net inflow of funds around 459 million yuan [2] - Corn prices stabilized due to tight supply and increasing demand expectations, with the main contract rising 1.20% for the third consecutive day [3] Group 3: Shipping and Egg Market - The European shipping index led the market decline with a 3.31% drop, attributed to seasonal pessimism and slow high-price order progress [4] - Egg prices continued to decline, with the main contract closing at 2930 yuan/ton, driven by sharp supply-demand contradictions and high inventory levels [5] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate saw a significant drop of 2.33%, although demand increased by 6% in August, indicating a potential rebound in the near future [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - Specific varieties: iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all rated as "oscillation" [6][7][10][11][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black price is in a weak oscillation. Although the demand is weakly expected in the peak season, the cost supply is disturbed, and there is a driving force for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. The follow - up should focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. - After the decline of the glass futures and spot market sentiment, the supply is expected to be stable, and the short - term is expected to oscillate widely. The long - term price center will decline [13][14]. - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to the same period last year, with relatively stable total supply [2]. - Demand: The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter decreased significantly. There is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased this week, and the total inventory slightly declined [2]. - Outlook: The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - Supply: Production in some mines is restricted, and coal mine safety inspections are increasing. Although the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port remains high, overall, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [2]. - Demand: The eighth round of coke price increase is restarted, and the demand for coking coal has slightly declined in the short term. Downstream purchases on demand, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but there is no obvious inventory pressure [2]. - Outlook: Before the parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increase to be implemented, the futures market is still supported [11]. Coke - Supply: After the seventh - round price increase was fully implemented, the profits of coking enterprises recovered. As the parade approaches, the start - up of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production [10]. - Demand: Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but affected by the parade, the start - up of some steel mills in North China will also be restricted, and the demand is affected [10]. - Outlook: The game of the eighth - round price increase continues. Before the parade, the futures market is still supported, but the actual implementation is difficult [10]. 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - Supply: The production level has reached a high point this year, and the market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profits are good, but as the parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, and the short - term demand for manganese silicon is expected to decline [2]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited due to cost support, but the long - term price center may decline [16]. Ferrosilicon - Supply: Manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated, and production has gradually reached a high level [17]. - Demand: Steel production will decline slightly during the parade, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking will decline. The magnesium market has supply pressure and weak demand [17]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited, but the long - term price center is expected to decline [17][18]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable [2]. - Demand: The demand in the off - season has declined, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month. The inventory days of raw sheets have reached a high point this year, and the mid - stream and downstream lack the ability to replenish inventory [13]. - Outlook: The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price is expected to decline after returning to fundamental trading [13][14]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The long - term supply pressure still exists, and short - term production is affected. It is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future [15]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain stable, and the demand for light soda ash is flat, with weak downstream replenishment sentiment [15]. - Outlook: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [15]. 3.6 Steel - Supply: The production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. The supply of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little [6]. - Demand: The demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains at a high level, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down [6]. - Outlook: The short - term futures market is expected to oscillate widely, and the follow - up should focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [6]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Supply: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased week - on - week [8]. - Demand: The profit of electric furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process furnaces has slightly increased, and the total daily consumption has increased slightly [8]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on polyolefins (plastic PP) dated August 27, 2024, prepared by the Commodity Research Institute's Energy and Chemicals Research Department [2] - The report includes relevant data, market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant charts [3][5][11] Group 2: Relevant Data Plastic and PP Futures and Spot Prices - Plastic futures prices (L2605, L2509, L2601) decreased by -0.62%, -0.50%, -0.51% respectively; PP futures prices (PP2605, PP2509, PP2601) decreased by -0.44%, -0.37%, -0.35% respectively [4] - Spot prices of North China linear and East China linear decreased by -0.41% and -0.27% respectively; North China drawstring and East China drawstring decreased by -0.15% and -0.43% respectively [4] Basis and Spread - Plastic 09, 01, 05 basis increased by 7, 8, 16 respectively; PP 09, 01, 05 basis decreased by -4, -5, 1 respectively [4] - Plastic 9 - 1 spread increased by 1, 1 - 5 spread increased by 8; PP 9 - 1 spread decreased by -1, 1 - 5 spread increased by 6 [4] Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil main contract price increased by 0.01%; naphtha price increased by 1.27%; Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by 1.20%; Shandong propylene price remained unchanged [4] Profits - Plastic import profit decreased by 5.82%, oil - made PE profit increased by -627.48%; PP import profit decreased by 2.76%, oil - made PP profit increased by -28.44% [4] Production Ratios - Linear production ratio remained unchanged at 36.1%, PE maintenance ratio remained unchanged at 14.1%; PP drawstring production ratio and maintenance ratio data were unavailable [4] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Review - In the plastic spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China showed partial declines or fluctuations; in the PP spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased [6] Relevant Information - Main producers' inventory was 70.5 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 3.42%; inventory in the same period last year was 72 tons [7] Logical Analysis - New plastic production capacity will slow down in the second half of the year, while PP will face the launch of a 900,000 - ton new device in Ningbo Daxie Phase II, with greater production pressure than PE [9] - Inventory maintenance is expected to decline significantly in the fourth quarter; there is still an expectation of peak - season demand in "Golden September and Silver October", downstream start - up has rebounded, but the current pace is slow, and orders are weaker year - on - year [9] - Plastic is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while PP will be range - bound [9] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Plastic is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while PP will be range - bound [10] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [11] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [11] Group 5: Relevant Charts - The report includes 18 charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, upstream prices, profits, production ratios, and inventory of plastic and PP contracts [12][15][17][20][24][27][31][34][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyethylene is likely to rise in the short - term but has limited upside potential, facing pressure at the [7600] price level for the 12601 contract. The demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, with marginal improvement in the pattern and short - term upward drivers. However, the supply pressure remains high, with new capacity being put into production and high existing production loads [6]. - For different participants in the industrial chain, different hedging strategies are recommended. For example, factories and coal - chemical enterprises with high inventory and concerns about PE price drops can buy put options and short futures contracts on the futures market; traders and end - customers can take corresponding actions according to their purchase and inventory management needs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis and Spreads - **Standard Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products has risen synchronously, and the basis has weakened slightly. The basis in East China has weakened by 10 to around - 100 yuan/ton, in North China by 30 to around - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China by 30 to 20 yuan/ton [17]. - **Non - standard Basis**: The non - standard basis of plastics has a stronger trend than the standard basis [18]. - **Futures Spreads**: The 1 - 5 month spread has fallen back to the previous low of around - 10 this week. The L - PP01 spread has risen steadily and is currently close to 300 yuan/ton. Overall, the supply pressure of PP is greater, while L has more maintenance and the demand for agricultural films starts in September [42]. 3.2. Domestic Production - end Profits and Supply - **Cost Curve**: The oil - based process has the largest production capacity share (67.22%), with the East China oil - based cost at 7443 yuan/ton; the coal - based process (18.82%) is an important supplement with relatively high profits, and the Inner Mongolia coal - based cost is 5250 yuan/ton [54][55]. - **Production Profits**: This week, oil prices continued to fluctuate, and the oil - based end profits have recovered compared with the previous period. The Northeast Asian ethylene price has remained stable, and the profit from purchasing ethylene for production has weakened recently. The coal price has rebounded, but the CTO profit remains high, while the inland MTO profit has deteriorated under tight supply and demand [57]. - **Domestic Capacity and Production**: As of August 2025, the newly added domestic PE capacity is 370.5 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10.38%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 613 million tons, with an estimated capacity growth rate of 17.17%. This week, the PE production was 61.81 million tons, a decrease of 4.31 million tons compared with the previous week, and the operating rate decreased by 8.1% to 78.72% due to many device overhauls [78][79][80]. 3.3. US Dollar Price and Import Profit - **US Dollar Price**: The northwest European price is at a high level, especially for LD and ED. The US dollar price in the Chinese market has shown mixed trends; the Southeast Asian price is stable with weak demand, and the South Asian price has declined due to poor rainy - season demand [102]. - **Import Profit**: The import windows for LD and some HD have opened, and the market offers have increased compared with the previous period [111]. 3.4. Downstream Operation and Profit - **Downstream Operation**: As the peak season approaches, the demand is gradually recovering. Some agricultural film enterprises have seen a slight increase in orders, but it is still in the off - season and weaker than previous years. The packaging film operation rate has increased by 0.8% month - on - month, and the operation rates of pipes, blow - molding, and injection - molding have also changed to different extents [128]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profits of plastic film products such as agricultural film and packaging film are also affected by factors such as raw material prices and market demand, but specific profit data are not comprehensively summarized in the text. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the inventory of production enterprises has increased by 5.74 million tons to 50.19 million tons, with the inventory of two major state - owned oil companies increasing by 5.8 million tons and the coal - based inventory decreasing by 0.06 million tons. The social inventory has decreased by 1.21 million tons to 55.65 million tons. The downstream restocking and transactions are weak, with the upstream inventory accumulating and the social inventory continuing to decline [151]. 3.6. Position, Transaction, and Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Position**: The positions of the plastic 01, 05, and 09 contracts on August 22, 2025, are 577,012, 571,625, and 600,000 respectively [161]. - **Transaction Volume**: The transaction volumes of the plastic 01, 05, and 09 contracts on August 22, 2025, are 900,022, 800,000, and 1,119,745 respectively [162][163][164]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of L registered warehouse receipts on August 22, 2025, is also provided in the document, but specific analysis is not further elaborated [169].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting potential price increases for various metals due to rising demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions [2][4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with improving seasonal demand, is likely to drive up industrial metal prices [2][4]. - It identifies specific companies as key investment opportunities, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining, among others [2][4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the SMM import copper concentrate index decreased by $3.47 per ton week-on-week, indicating stable demand with downstream purchases primarily driven by necessity [2]. - Aluminum production has slightly increased due to the commissioning of replacement capacity, and companies are beginning to stockpile for the upcoming peak season [2]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory stands at 596,000 tons, with a weekly reduction of 11,000 tons [2]. Energy Metals - Cobalt supply continues to decrease, leading to expectations of a significant price increase, while lithium prices are expected to remain strong due to market dynamics [3]. - The report highlights that cobalt prices are likely to rise as domestic inventory continues to deplete [3]. - Nickel prices are also expected to increase due to low supply and rising demand from precursor manufacturers [3]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's comments have bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts, which is likely to support gold prices [4]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for nine consecutive months, further supporting the bullish outlook for gold [4]. - The report suggests that if gold prices stabilize above $3,500 per ounce, it could present a significant investment opportunity [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings - Zijin Mining: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.21 CNY, with a PE ratio of 17, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.63 CNY, with a PE ratio of 18, rated as "Buy" [4]. - China Nonferrous Mining: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.77 CNY, with a PE ratio of 11, rated as "Buy" [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the steel sector, the "anti - involution" hype has cooled down, and the market is now focusing on peak - season demand. If the demand recovery in the peak season is slow or lower than expected, steel futures prices will face significant downward pressure. Currently, the decline in apparent demand is pressuring steel futures prices, and both rebar and hot - rolled coils are facing short - term downward pressure [2]. - For the iron ore sector, although steel mills' profitability is still acceptable, the profit margin has slightly decreased due to the sharp rise in coke prices. Steel mills' molten iron production has room to increase after the National Day parade as the consumption peak season approaches, but the upward space is limited as the current production is already at a relatively high level. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventories are showing signs of stabilization, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation during the consumption peak season. Iron ore futures prices are facing short - term correction pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The "anti - involution" hype has cooled, and the market focuses on peak - season demand. According to seasonal demand patterns, apparent demand should gradually recover and total inventory should decline after the end of the summer heat. However, last week's data showed that rebar production and apparent demand decreased, factory and social inventories increased, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products declined, putting pressure on futures prices [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are oscillating downward, and the overall commodity market is weak. Rebar and hot - rolled coils still face short - term downward pressure [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions. Short - term short positions should be closed at low prices this week, and short positions can be re - established when prices rebound [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices generally declined compared to the previous day and week. For example, the rebar futures main contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous day and 4.05% from the previous week [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed various changes. For example, the rebar futures 10 - 1 spread was - 82 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 4 yuan from the previous week [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of rebar decreased slightly, while hot - rolled coil production increased slightly. The total inventory of the five major steel products and the inventory of rebar increased, while the hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased slightly [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, but the profit margin has decreased due to the rise in coke prices. Molten iron production has room to increase after the National Day parade, but the upward space is limited. Global shipments are high, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventories are stabilizing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation during the peak season [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices rebounded in the short - term but encountered resistance and fell back. They are maintaining a high - level wide - range oscillation and may form a double - top pattern, facing significant short - term correction pressure [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions. Close short positions in time if there is a significant decline, and conduct short - term trading [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron ore spot and futures prices generally declined compared to the previous day and week. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settled at 771 yuan/dry ton, down 0.13% from the previous day and 3.75% from the previous week [4]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of iron ore showed different trends. For example, the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was 17.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.5 yuan from the previous day and 12 yuan from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas shipments from Australia decreased, while those from Brazil increased. The arrival volume at northern ports and the daily port clearance volume increased. Port inventories and trade inventories increased [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% tax rate, covering a wide range of products such as wind turbines, mobile cranes, etc., aiming to protect domestic manufacturing and reduce import dependence [6]. - BHP Billiton reported that its attributable profit in fiscal year 2025 was 9.2 billion US dollars, a 14% year - on - year increase, while the adjusted attributable profit decreased by 26% to 10.2 billion US dollars, and revenue fell 8% to 51.3 billion US dollars [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 144.424 million tons, an increase of 418,200 tons from the previous Monday. The inventory increase was mainly concentrated in East China, South China, and the Yangtze River Basin [7]. - Some independent strip steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan have received environmental protection shutdown and production - restriction notices from August 20th to September 3rd, which is expected to reduce the daily output of 10 local billet - adjusted strip steel enterprises by about 500 tons [7]. - Shanxi Meijin Iron and Steel plans to resume production of a 1080m³ blast furnace on August 22nd, with an expected daily increase in molten iron production of about 300 tons [8].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Recently, rebar production increased and inventory accumulated while apparent demand declined. The rebar basis weakened, but the hot-rolled coil basis was relatively strong. In the medium term, steel mill production remains high, and demand seasonally declines in August, leading to inventory increases. There is an expectation of production cuts in mid - to late August. In the short term, steel mill inventory pressure is not significant, and production cuts can relieve the pressure on the peak season from high production and trader inventory. Steel prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillations, and the market needs to wait for clear peak - season demand. Support levels for hot - rolled coil and rebar are around 3400 yuan/ton and 3150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. Fundamentally, global iron ore shipments increased significantly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rebound. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, the amount of maintenance decreased slightly, and hot metal production increased slightly at a high level, remaining around 240 million tons per day. However, downstream apparent demand decreased month - on - month. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mill equity ore inventory increased month - on - month. Considering production cuts by Hebei steel mills in the second half of the month, hot metal production in August is expected to decline slightly at a high level, with an average of around 236 million tons per day. Steel mill profits support raw materials, and there is a seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore. Due to the off - season and weakening steel apparent demand, recent finished steel prices fell again, and iron ore followed suit. It is recommended to short at high prices [3]. Coke - The coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, and prices fluctuated sharply recently. The sixth round of price increases was implemented, and the seventh round started on the 19th. On the supply side, due to the implementation of price increases, coking profits improved, and coke enterprise operations increased slightly. On the demand side, blast furnace hot metal fluctuated at a high level, and downstream demand remained resilient. It is expected that hot metal production will decline slightly in August. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventory continued to decrease, port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. Overall inventory is at a medium level. Due to tight supply and demand, downstream steel mills still have restocking needs, and there is still an expectation for the seventh round of coke price increases. Coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing hedging opportunities [5]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, and prices fluctuated sharply recently. Spot auction prices for some coal types loosened, and Mongolian coal quotes were weakly stable. Domestic coking coal auctions weakened, and after a rapid price increase, downstream purchasing willingness declined, with some coal types experiencing price drops, but overall it remained stable. On the supply side, coal mine operations decreased month - on - month, shipments slowed down, and coal mines started to slightly reduce prices to make concessions, easing market supply and demand. Coal mine de - stocking slowed down significantly. In terms of imports, Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with futures, and due to high prices, downstream users were cautious about restocking. On the demand side, coking operations increased slightly, blast furnace hot metal production fluctuated at a high level, and downstream restocking demand slowed down. Considering production cuts by Hebei steel mills before the parade, hot metal production in August may decline to around 236 million tons per day. In terms of inventory, coal mine de - stocking slowed down, port inventory at the border increased slightly, port inventory decreased, and downstream restocking demand weakened. Overall inventory is at a medium level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and futures prices decreased by 32 - 34 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and futures prices decreased by 19 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and plate billet prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan, and the cost of converter rebar increased by 5 yuan. Profits for hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different changes, with East China increasing by 13 yuan, North China decreasing by 7 yuan, and South China increasing by 3 yuan. Rebar profits in different regions also had different trends [1]. Production and Inventory - Daily average hot metal production increased by 0.2 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 2.4 to 871.6 million tons, a 0.3% increase. Rebar production decreased by 0.7 to 220.5 million tons, a 0.3% decrease. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 to 315.6 million tons, a 0.2% increase. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 40.6 to 1416.0 million tons, a 3.0% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 30.5 to 587.2 million tons, a 5.5% increase. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.8 to 357.5 million tons, a 0.2% increase [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased slightly, and the 01 - contract basis of various iron ore types increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 3.5 to - 40.0, a 9.6% decrease, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.0 to 18.0, a 12.5% increase, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 1.5 to 22.0, a 7.3% increase [3]. Supply and Demand - Weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 359.9 to 3406.6 million tons, an 11.8% increase. The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 94.7 to 2476.6 million tons, a 4.0% increase. The monthly national iron ore import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 million tons, an 8.0% increase. The weekly average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase. The weekly average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 12.8 to 334.7 million tons, a 4.0% increase. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 110.5 to 7080.0 million tons, a 1.5% decrease, and the monthly national crude steel production decreased by 352.4 to 7966.0 million tons, a 4.2% decrease [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 13.2 to 13819.27 million tons, a 0.1% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 123.1 to 9136.4 million tons, a 1.4% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0 days, a 5.0% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices declined. The 09 - contract of coke decreased by 1.1%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 1.6%. The 09 - contract of coking coal decreased by 4.2%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 3.5%. The basis of coke and coking coal contracts changed, and spreads between different contracts also changed [5]. Supply and Demand - Coke production: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4 million tons, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase. Coking coal production: Raw coal production decreased by 2.3 to 856.6 million tons, a 0.3% decrease, and clean coal production increased by 0.4 to 439.4 million tons, a 0.14% increase. Coke demand: The hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase [5]. Inventory - Coke inventory: Total coke inventory decreased by 19.7 to 887.4 million tons, a 2.2% decrease. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.2 to 62.5 million tons, a 10.4% decrease, the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.5 to 609.8 million tons, a 1.54% decrease, and port inventory decreased by 3.0 to 215.1 million tons, a 1.4% decrease. Coking coal inventory: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.2 to 111.9 million tons, a 0.1% decrease, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 11.0 to 976.9 million tons, a 1.1% decrease, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.9 to 805.8 million tons, a 0.4% decrease, and port inventory decreased by 21.9 to 255.5 million tons, a 7.9% decrease [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Consider buying on dips due to low spot inventory. Focus on 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Unilateral trading suggests cautious long positions, and arbitrage recommends going long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore. The iron - making water output in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, speculative trading advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage suggests going long on coke and short on iron ore. For coking coal, speculative trading also advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage recommends going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China dropped from 3430 yuan/ton to 3390 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China fell from 3500 yuan/ton to 3440 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 3080 yuan/ton, while plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits from hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 48 yuan/ton to 333 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - Daily average iron - making water output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. Five major steel products' production decreased by 1.2 to 867.0, a 0.1% decrease. Five major steel products' inventory decreased by 1.2 to 1336.5, a 0.1% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a 13.6% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a 0.2% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt cost of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 2.2 to 818.4 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5 tons, a 5.5% decrease, while the global shipping volume (weekly) increased by 91.8 to 3200.9 tons, a 3.0% increase [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) decreased by 7.6 to 315.2 tons, a 2.4% decrease [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 63.1 to 8885.2 tons, a 0.7% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton, a 2.2% increase. The 09 - contract price of coke increased by 44 yuan/ton to 1677 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase [4]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease. The 09 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1117 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [4]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 4.3 to 862.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease [4]. Demand - The iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase [4]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2 tons, a 0.8% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4 tons, a 6.1% increase [4]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5 tons, a 10.2% increase [4].