Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting potential price increases for various metals due to rising demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions [2][4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with improving seasonal demand, is likely to drive up industrial metal prices [2][4]. - It identifies specific companies as key investment opportunities, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining, among others [2][4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the SMM import copper concentrate index decreased by $3.47 per ton week-on-week, indicating stable demand with downstream purchases primarily driven by necessity [2]. - Aluminum production has slightly increased due to the commissioning of replacement capacity, and companies are beginning to stockpile for the upcoming peak season [2]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory stands at 596,000 tons, with a weekly reduction of 11,000 tons [2]. Energy Metals - Cobalt supply continues to decrease, leading to expectations of a significant price increase, while lithium prices are expected to remain strong due to market dynamics [3]. - The report highlights that cobalt prices are likely to rise as domestic inventory continues to deplete [3]. - Nickel prices are also expected to increase due to low supply and rising demand from precursor manufacturers [3]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's comments have bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts, which is likely to support gold prices [4]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for nine consecutive months, further supporting the bullish outlook for gold [4]. - The report suggests that if gold prices stabilize above $3,500 per ounce, it could present a significant investment opportunity [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings - Zijin Mining: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.21 CNY, with a PE ratio of 17, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.63 CNY, with a PE ratio of 18, rated as "Buy" [4]. - China Nonferrous Mining: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.77 CNY, with a PE ratio of 11, rated as "Buy" [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the steel sector, the "anti - involution" hype has cooled down, and the market is now focusing on peak - season demand. If the demand recovery in the peak season is slow or lower than expected, steel futures prices will face significant downward pressure. Currently, the decline in apparent demand is pressuring steel futures prices, and both rebar and hot - rolled coils are facing short - term downward pressure [2]. - For the iron ore sector, although steel mills' profitability is still acceptable, the profit margin has slightly decreased due to the sharp rise in coke prices. Steel mills' molten iron production has room to increase after the National Day parade as the consumption peak season approaches, but the upward space is limited as the current production is already at a relatively high level. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventories are showing signs of stabilization, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation during the consumption peak season. Iron ore futures prices are facing short - term correction pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The "anti - involution" hype has cooled, and the market focuses on peak - season demand. According to seasonal demand patterns, apparent demand should gradually recover and total inventory should decline after the end of the summer heat. However, last week's data showed that rebar production and apparent demand decreased, factory and social inventories increased, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products declined, putting pressure on futures prices [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are oscillating downward, and the overall commodity market is weak. Rebar and hot - rolled coils still face short - term downward pressure [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions. Short - term short positions should be closed at low prices this week, and short positions can be re - established when prices rebound [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices generally declined compared to the previous day and week. For example, the rebar futures main contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous day and 4.05% from the previous week [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed various changes. For example, the rebar futures 10 - 1 spread was - 82 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 4 yuan from the previous week [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of rebar decreased slightly, while hot - rolled coil production increased slightly. The total inventory of the five major steel products and the inventory of rebar increased, while the hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased slightly [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, but the profit margin has decreased due to the rise in coke prices. Molten iron production has room to increase after the National Day parade, but the upward space is limited. Global shipments are high, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventories are stabilizing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation during the peak season [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices rebounded in the short - term but encountered resistance and fell back. They are maintaining a high - level wide - range oscillation and may form a double - top pattern, facing significant short - term correction pressure [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions. Close short positions in time if there is a significant decline, and conduct short - term trading [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron ore spot and futures prices generally declined compared to the previous day and week. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settled at 771 yuan/dry ton, down 0.13% from the previous day and 3.75% from the previous week [4]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of iron ore showed different trends. For example, the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was 17.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.5 yuan from the previous day and 12 yuan from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas shipments from Australia decreased, while those from Brazil increased. The arrival volume at northern ports and the daily port clearance volume increased. Port inventories and trade inventories increased [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% tax rate, covering a wide range of products such as wind turbines, mobile cranes, etc., aiming to protect domestic manufacturing and reduce import dependence [6]. - BHP Billiton reported that its attributable profit in fiscal year 2025 was 9.2 billion US dollars, a 14% year - on - year increase, while the adjusted attributable profit decreased by 26% to 10.2 billion US dollars, and revenue fell 8% to 51.3 billion US dollars [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 144.424 million tons, an increase of 418,200 tons from the previous Monday. The inventory increase was mainly concentrated in East China, South China, and the Yangtze River Basin [7]. - Some independent strip steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan have received environmental protection shutdown and production - restriction notices from August 20th to September 3rd, which is expected to reduce the daily output of 10 local billet - adjusted strip steel enterprises by about 500 tons [7]. - Shanxi Meijin Iron and Steel plans to resume production of a 1080m³ blast furnace on August 22nd, with an expected daily increase in molten iron production of about 300 tons [8].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Recently, rebar production increased and inventory accumulated while apparent demand declined. The rebar basis weakened, but the hot-rolled coil basis was relatively strong. In the medium term, steel mill production remains high, and demand seasonally declines in August, leading to inventory increases. There is an expectation of production cuts in mid - to late August. In the short term, steel mill inventory pressure is not significant, and production cuts can relieve the pressure on the peak season from high production and trader inventory. Steel prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillations, and the market needs to wait for clear peak - season demand. Support levels for hot - rolled coil and rebar are around 3400 yuan/ton and 3150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. Fundamentally, global iron ore shipments increased significantly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rebound. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, the amount of maintenance decreased slightly, and hot metal production increased slightly at a high level, remaining around 240 million tons per day. However, downstream apparent demand decreased month - on - month. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mill equity ore inventory increased month - on - month. Considering production cuts by Hebei steel mills in the second half of the month, hot metal production in August is expected to decline slightly at a high level, with an average of around 236 million tons per day. Steel mill profits support raw materials, and there is a seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore. Due to the off - season and weakening steel apparent demand, recent finished steel prices fell again, and iron ore followed suit. It is recommended to short at high prices [3]. Coke - The coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, and prices fluctuated sharply recently. The sixth round of price increases was implemented, and the seventh round started on the 19th. On the supply side, due to the implementation of price increases, coking profits improved, and coke enterprise operations increased slightly. On the demand side, blast furnace hot metal fluctuated at a high level, and downstream demand remained resilient. It is expected that hot metal production will decline slightly in August. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventory continued to decrease, port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. Overall inventory is at a medium level. Due to tight supply and demand, downstream steel mills still have restocking needs, and there is still an expectation for the seventh round of coke price increases. Coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing hedging opportunities [5]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, and prices fluctuated sharply recently. Spot auction prices for some coal types loosened, and Mongolian coal quotes were weakly stable. Domestic coking coal auctions weakened, and after a rapid price increase, downstream purchasing willingness declined, with some coal types experiencing price drops, but overall it remained stable. On the supply side, coal mine operations decreased month - on - month, shipments slowed down, and coal mines started to slightly reduce prices to make concessions, easing market supply and demand. Coal mine de - stocking slowed down significantly. In terms of imports, Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with futures, and due to high prices, downstream users were cautious about restocking. On the demand side, coking operations increased slightly, blast furnace hot metal production fluctuated at a high level, and downstream restocking demand slowed down. Considering production cuts by Hebei steel mills before the parade, hot metal production in August may decline to around 236 million tons per day. In terms of inventory, coal mine de - stocking slowed down, port inventory at the border increased slightly, port inventory decreased, and downstream restocking demand weakened. Overall inventory is at a medium level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and futures prices decreased by 32 - 34 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and futures prices decreased by 19 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and plate billet prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan, and the cost of converter rebar increased by 5 yuan. Profits for hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different changes, with East China increasing by 13 yuan, North China decreasing by 7 yuan, and South China increasing by 3 yuan. Rebar profits in different regions also had different trends [1]. Production and Inventory - Daily average hot metal production increased by 0.2 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 2.4 to 871.6 million tons, a 0.3% increase. Rebar production decreased by 0.7 to 220.5 million tons, a 0.3% decrease. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 to 315.6 million tons, a 0.2% increase. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 40.6 to 1416.0 million tons, a 3.0% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 30.5 to 587.2 million tons, a 5.5% increase. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.8 to 357.5 million tons, a 0.2% increase [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased slightly, and the 01 - contract basis of various iron ore types increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 3.5 to - 40.0, a 9.6% decrease, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.0 to 18.0, a 12.5% increase, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 1.5 to 22.0, a 7.3% increase [3]. Supply and Demand - Weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 359.9 to 3406.6 million tons, an 11.8% increase. The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 94.7 to 2476.6 million tons, a 4.0% increase. The monthly national iron ore import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 million tons, an 8.0% increase. The weekly average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase. The weekly average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 12.8 to 334.7 million tons, a 4.0% increase. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 110.5 to 7080.0 million tons, a 1.5% decrease, and the monthly national crude steel production decreased by 352.4 to 7966.0 million tons, a 4.2% decrease [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 13.2 to 13819.27 million tons, a 0.1% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 123.1 to 9136.4 million tons, a 1.4% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0 days, a 5.0% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices declined. The 09 - contract of coke decreased by 1.1%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 1.6%. The 09 - contract of coking coal decreased by 4.2%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 3.5%. The basis of coke and coking coal contracts changed, and spreads between different contracts also changed [5]. Supply and Demand - Coke production: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4 million tons, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase. Coking coal production: Raw coal production decreased by 2.3 to 856.6 million tons, a 0.3% decrease, and clean coal production increased by 0.4 to 439.4 million tons, a 0.14% increase. Coke demand: The hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase [5]. Inventory - Coke inventory: Total coke inventory decreased by 19.7 to 887.4 million tons, a 2.2% decrease. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.2 to 62.5 million tons, a 10.4% decrease, the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.5 to 609.8 million tons, a 1.54% decrease, and port inventory decreased by 3.0 to 215.1 million tons, a 1.4% decrease. Coking coal inventory: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.2 to 111.9 million tons, a 0.1% decrease, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 11.0 to 976.9 million tons, a 1.1% decrease, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.9 to 805.8 million tons, a 0.4% decrease, and port inventory decreased by 21.9 to 255.5 million tons, a 7.9% decrease [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Consider buying on dips due to low spot inventory. Focus on 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Unilateral trading suggests cautious long positions, and arbitrage recommends going long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore. The iron - making water output in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, speculative trading advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage suggests going long on coke and short on iron ore. For coking coal, speculative trading also advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage recommends going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China dropped from 3430 yuan/ton to 3390 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China fell from 3500 yuan/ton to 3440 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 3080 yuan/ton, while plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits from hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 48 yuan/ton to 333 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - Daily average iron - making water output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. Five major steel products' production decreased by 1.2 to 867.0, a 0.1% decrease. Five major steel products' inventory decreased by 1.2 to 1336.5, a 0.1% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a 13.6% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a 0.2% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt cost of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 2.2 to 818.4 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5 tons, a 5.5% decrease, while the global shipping volume (weekly) increased by 91.8 to 3200.9 tons, a 3.0% increase [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) decreased by 7.6 to 315.2 tons, a 2.4% decrease [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 63.1 to 8885.2 tons, a 0.7% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton, a 2.2% increase. The 09 - contract price of coke increased by 44 yuan/ton to 1677 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase [4]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease. The 09 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1117 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [4]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 4.3 to 862.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease [4]. Demand - The iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase [4]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2 tons, a 0.8% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4 tons, a 6.1% increase [4]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5 tons, a 10.2% increase [4].