1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will undergo wide - range adjustments in the short term, with attention on the MA10 support, in the range of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. Stainless steel futures prices are expected to adjust strongly, with the range to be concerned about 14,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton [9] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Week - ly Highlights Summary 3.1.1 Shanghai Nickel - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of +1.62% and an amplitude of 9.79%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 141,350 yuan/ton [9] - Macroscopically, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the re - lending and rediscount rates by 25 basis points, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased to 198,000, and the US dollar rebounded to a more than one - month high [9] - Fundamentally, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota to 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons next year, causing market concerns about raw material supply. It is expected that the supply will be relatively loose in the first quarter. The production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and recently the nickel price has rebounded, with profits repaired. It is expected that the subsequent production of refined nickel will rise again. In terms of demand, the cost of nickel iron for stainless steel has decreased, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [9] - Technically, the price is adjusted at a high position of positions, with large differences between long and short positions. There is resistance above, and it is expected to be mainly in wide - range adjustment [9] 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - This week, stainless steel rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of +2.99% and an amplitude of 6.60%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 14,275 yuan/ton [9] - In terms of raw materials, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the grade of nickel ore is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year. Under the situation of shrinking raw material supply, nickel - iron production will face production - cut pressure [9] - In terms of supply, the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure still exists. In terms of demand, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel shows a downward trend. The impact of previous export squeezing is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and transaction performance are average. However, the market arrivals are also not many, so the national social inventory of stainless steel maintains a seasonal small decline [9] - Technically, the price is strong with an increase in positions, and the long sentiment is strong [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - As of January 9, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 139,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,240 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 735 yuan/ton from last week [15] - As of January 9, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 965 yuan/nickel, an increase of 50 yuan/nickel from last week [15] 3.2.2 Basis - As of January 9, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 141,900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,810 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 14,350 yuan/ton, with a basis of 490 yuan/ton [20] 3.2.3 Price Ratios - As of January 9, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 10.04, a decrease of 0.09 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.1 from last week [27] 3.2.4 Net Long Positions of the Top 20 - As of January 16, 2026, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 78,736 lots, a decrease of 6,275 lots compared with January 12, 2026. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 9,792 lots, a decrease of 1,029 lots compared with January 12, 2026 [33] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - Nickel ore port inventory decreased. As of January 9, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 13.1977 million tons, a decrease of 122,600 tons from last week [38] - The production profit of electrowinning nickel was profitable but decreased. As of January 9, the production profit of electrowinning nickel was 10,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,650 yuan/ton from last week [39] - Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased and imports decreased. In December 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 29,058 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16%. In November 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 12,840.486 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.18%; from January to November, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 209,244.351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 157.2% [44] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the LME nickel inventory increased slowly. As of January 2, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 45,544 tons, an increase of 1,090 tons from last week. As of December 31, the LME nickel inventory was 255,186 tons, an increase of 426 tons from last week [51][52] 3.3.2 Demand Side - The production of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly, and the export volume decreased. In December 2025, the total stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2605 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.66%. Among them, the production of 400 - series was 572,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.91%; the production of 300 - series was 1.7472 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%; the production of 200 - series was 940,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.74%. In November 2025, the stainless steel import volume was 109,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons; the export volume was 333,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,700 tons. In January, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.4695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 223,900 tons [55] - The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi showed a downward trend. As of December 26, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 264,500 tons, a decrease of 21,646 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 544,038 tons, a decrease of 9,489 tons from last week [60] - The stainless steel production profit increased. As of January 9, the stainless steel production profit was 377 yuan/ton, an increase of 439 yuan/ton from last week [64] - The real estate industry was in a weak downward trend, and the home appliance industry showed a decline. From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; real estate development investment was 785.909 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.64%; the household refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.67%; the household washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.96%; the freezer production was 2.619 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.17% [68] - The automobile industry performed well, and the machinery industry stabilized and improved. In November 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in China was 3.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%; the sales volume was 3.429 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%. In November 2025, the excavator production was 33,623 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; the large - and medium - sized tractor production was 22,592 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.11%; the small - tractor production was 9,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 25% [71]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract decreased, with a weekly decline of approximately 0.58%. The US cotton 3 - month contract price rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.23%. The 2025/26 US upland cotton export sales and shipments showed positive trends. In the domestic market, the national commercial cotton inventory continued to rise, and the market supply was relatively sufficient. The downstream demand was generally weak, but the yarn price remained stable due to cost - driven factors. The 12 - month textile and clothing export growth rate rebounded. The previous expectation of reduced cotton planting area has been reflected in the market, and it is expected to enter an adjustment phase in the short term [5][11][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract decreased, with a weekly decline of approximately 0.58% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: US cotton export sales and shipments were strong. In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak but supported by cost and export data. The market is expected to enter an adjustment phase in the short term [5]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The US cotton 3 - month contract price rose by about 0.23% this week. As of January 6, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 81,409 lots, an increase of 247 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 110,329 lots, a decrease of 1,790 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 28,920 lots, a decrease of 2,037 lots from the previous week [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of January 8, the net increase in 2025/26 US upland cotton export sales was 339,700 bales, a record high for the year. The international cotton spot price this week was 75.05 cents per pound, unchanged from last week [16]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract decreased by about 0.58% this week, and the yarn futures 2603 contract decreased by 0.75%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 168,795 lots, and those in yarn futures were - 1,467 lots. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures warehouse receipts were 9,666, and the yarn futures warehouse receipts were 70 [19][25][31]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 16, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,931 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese yarn C32S was 21,300 yuan per ton. The 5 - 9 contract spread of Zhengzhou cotton was - 155 yuan per ton, and the spot price spread between cotton 3128B and yarn C32S was 5,369 yuan per ton [35][40][51]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of January 15, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13,735 yuan per ton, a decrease of 19 yuan per ton from last week; the import cotton quota price was 12,616 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan per ton from last week. The import yarn price index showed different prices for different varieties [55]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of January 15, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,235 yuan per ton, an increase of 205 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,629 yuan per ton, an increase of 204 yuan per ton from last week [58]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of November 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.21%. The in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 939,600 tons, an increase of 51,400 tons from the end of the previous month. In November 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%. The imported yarn volume in November 2025 was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons [63][70]. - **Mid - End Industry**: As of the end of November, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous month, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days from the previous month [73]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In December 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%, and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [79][83]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented in the report, but no specific data is provided [84]. - **Stock Market**: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [87].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures contracts in 2026 are all expected to be in a state of shock, with an intraday view of shock - weakening [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all shock - weakening, with a reference view of shock - weakening [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The US soybean market is weighing the bearish supply data from the USDA report, potential Chinese procurement demand, and the prospect of a bumper harvest in South American crops. In the domestic market, rapeseed meal is weaker due to improved prospects of rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports. Although pre - holiday stocking has increased soybean meal transactions and the firm Brazilian soybean premium provides some support, the overall supply is loose with high inventory and the resumption of reserve soybean auctions. So, the short - term soybean meal futures price will maintain a shock - weakening trend [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all shock - weakening, with a reference view of shock - weakening [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The core driver is that Indonesia's biofuel policy is less than expected. The cancellation of the B50 plan and maintaining B40 have disappointed the market's optimistic expectations for biodiesel demand. Despite the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and improved exports, the high inventory pressure is difficult to solve in the short term. The large number of new February purchases by China and India to avoid the export tax increase in Indonesia in March have increased the expected domestic arrival, further suppressing prices. Although pre - holiday stocking and structural inventory differences provide some local support, the short - term palm oil will maintain a shock - weakening pattern [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all shock - weakening, with a reference view of shock - weakening [6]. - **Core Logic**: Factors influencing soybean oil include US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "volatile" [1]. - The investment rating for the rubber - related sector in the energy and chemical industry is "volatile" for natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and synthetic rubber [5]. Report's Core View - For the sugar market, both the international and domestic sugar markets are expected to be volatile. The international sugar market lacks new information and is mainly focused on the northern hemisphere's production. The domestic sugar market has limited trading information, and the price may be range - bound without new driving forces [1]. - For the rubber market, the natural rubber market has a mixed fundamental situation with strong overseas raw material prices but increasing domestic inventory. The synthetic rubber market is expected to be strongly volatile, affected by the strong upstream but sufficient domestic spot supply [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar in the Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Industry Market Review - On the previous day, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5280 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.36%, and the night - session closing price was 5275 yuan/ton. The closing price of SR609 contract was 5291 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.25%, and the night - session closing price was 5289 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5314 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. The price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5320 - 5380 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton. The price range of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5190 - 5230 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream price range of processing sugar factories was 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - As of the first half of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 59818.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1448.9 million tons (2.36%). The ATR of sugarcane was 138.38 kg/ton, a decrease of 3.14 kg/ton compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.91%, an increase of 2.72% compared to the same period last year. The cumulative ethanol production was 30.275 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.717 billion liters (5.37%). The cumulative sugar production was 4015.8 million tons, an increase of 34.3 million tons (0.86%) compared to the same period last year [1]. - As of the week ending January 6, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1101827 lots, an increase of 23287 lots compared to the previous week. The speculative long - position was 153060 lots, a decrease of 6484 lots compared to the previous week. The speculative short - position was 328010 lots, an increase of 3915 lots compared to the previous week. The speculative net short - position was 174950 lots, an increase of 10399 lots compared to the previous week [1]. - The number of white sugar warrants on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on the previous day was 14126, a daily increase of 4387 [1]. Market Logic - The international sugar market has limited new information, mainly focusing on the northern hemisphere's production. The far - month supply pressure still exists, and the price may be volatile [1]. - The domestic sugar market has limited trading information. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the pressure at the 5300 integer mark can be maintained. Without new driving forces, it is difficult to have a continuous unilateral trend, and it may be range - bound in the near future [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold the long - term short position of SR605 contract and pay attention to the performance of the 5300 - 5315 pressure range. Those who have not entered the market can try short positions against the upper - pressure range. For options, consider the double - selling strategy [1]. Rubber in the Energy and Chemical Industry Market Review - As of January 15, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15995 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.02%. The closing price of NR2603 contract was 12850 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.27%. The closing price of BR2603 contract was 12190 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.49% [5]. Important Information - The price of Thai RSS3 was 60.88 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.23. The price of field latex was 58.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.20 Thai baht/kg. The price of cup lump was 52.3 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.50 Thai baht/kg. The price of Malaysian rubber was 702 sen/kg, an increase of 9.5 sen/kg [5]. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 56.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 million tons (3.62%). The bonded - area inventory was 9.35 million tons, an increase of 6.14%. The general - trade inventory was 47.47 million tons, an increase of 3.13%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points. The inbound rate of general - trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises this week was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [5]. - The weekly average price of Shanghai full - latex this week was 15750 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan (0.16%). The weekly average price of 20 - standard Thai rubber in the Qingdao market was 1919 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars (0.27%). The weekly average price of 20 - mixed Thai rubber in the Qingdao market was 15076 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan (0.37%) [5]. - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis polybutadiene rubber industry was 79.68%, a month - on - month increase of 0.53 percentage points [5]. - The delivery price of butadiene in the central region of Shandong was 9850 - 9900 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in Jiangsu was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. - The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 12100 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina's BR9000 was 12100 - 12300 yuan/ton [5]. Market Logic - Natural rubber: The daily line of natural rubber closed down. Technically, the price is in a consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the pressure and support at the upper and lower limits of the range. Overseas raw material prices are strong, but the inventory in Qingdao is increasing. The short - term fundamental situation is mixed, and the overall change is limited. Recently, attention should be paid to the impact of macro - funds on the price [5]. - Synthetic rubber: The price of upstream butadiene is still strong, and the export deal rumor of domestic butadiene resources boosts the bullish sentiment. However, the current spot supply of polybutadiene rubber is sufficient. Except for the shutdown of the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, the operating load of other polybutadiene rubber plants is at a high level. Technically, the BR futures price is still in an upward channel, and attention should be paid to the resistance near the previous high. Recently, pay attention to the impact of the overseas situation on the energy and chemical sector, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile [5]. Trading Strategy - The active RU contract should pay attention to the range of 15750 - 16400 yuan/ton; the NR contract should pay attention to the range of 12700 - 13300 yuan/ton; the BR contract should pay attention to the range of 12100 - 12600 yuan/ton. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar - cane used for sugar production. After the northern hemisphere starts to end the sugar - cane crushing season in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In the domestic market, the supply of imported sugar is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price has fallen to a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see for now [4]. - For cotton, the January USDA report is neutral. The recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic situation. Affected by the expected reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation rate during the off - season, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly in December. However, after the price reached a high level, the short - term fluctuation range increased. It is advisable to wait for the price to pull back and then consider going long [9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report data is slightly bearish because the production estimates of the United States and Brazil are slightly increased, and the U.S. export volume is slightly decreased. However, the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/25 season. In the domestic market, according to MYSTEEL data, last week, the arrival and inventory of soybeans both decreased, the oil - mill operation rate decreased month - on - month, and the soybean meal inventory decreased slightly. Overall, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [13]. - For oils, the current high production and sluggish exports in the main palm - oil producing areas have led to high inventory levels. The inventory of the three major domestic oils is also at a relatively high level, and the current fundamental situation is weak. However, in the long term, the production estimate of Malaysia is lowered, Indonesia has confiscated illegal plantations, and the consumption of U.S. biodiesel made from soybean oil is expected to increase in 2026, so the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [17]. - For eggs, the late Spring Festival has led to continued stocking sentiment, driving the near - month contracts to be relatively strong. However, the large supply base remains, and the young age of laying hens makes it easy for farmers to be reluctant to cull hens after the price increase, thus delaying the reduction of production capacity. Considering the expected price decline of spot eggs after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to short on rallies for near - month contracts. For far - month contracts, although there is a long - term positive expectation, the realization path is uncertain, so attention should be paid to the pressure after over - valuation [20]. - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated better consumption. At the same time, the large price difference between fat and standard pigs has led to sentiment of reluctant selling and hoarding. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has increased significantly, driving a rational rebound in the futures market. In the short term, there is insufficient downward driving force for the spot price, which may continue to support the near - month contracts to oscillate strongly. In the medium term, the supply base is large and will be concentrated around the Spring Festival. The structural contradiction of the shortage of large pigs will also be gradually resolved over time. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure of the near - month contracts, and it is advisable to short on rallies. The direction of production - capacity reduction in the far - end is certain, but the pace is unclear. Generally, it is advisable to buy on dips [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Information - On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new - sugar quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5320 - 5380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the new - sugar quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5190 - 5230 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of sugar - processing plants was 5800 - 5810 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The basis of Guangxi spot sugar against the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 40 yuan/ton [2]. - According to UNICA data, in the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%; the cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. In the first half of December, the sugar - cane crushing volume was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%; the cumulative crushing volume was 598 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. According to the export data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), Brazil exported 2.913 million tons of sugar in December, an increase of 80,000 tons compared with the same period last year and a decrease of 390,000 tons compared with the previous month. Among them, the sugar exported to China in December was 385,300 tons, an increase of 330,000 tons compared with the same period last year and a decrease of 56,000 tons compared with the previous month. According to the data released by the Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of January 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, compared with 42 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 1.5823 million tons, compared with 1.417 million tons in the previous week [3]. Cotton Market Information - On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fell slightly. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton or 0.91% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,972 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B against the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 1297 yuan/ton [6]. - According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous year. Among them, the January forecast for U.S. production is 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast, and the export forecast remains unchanged, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points compared with the previous period. The production forecast for Brazil remains unchanged at 4.08 million tons; the production forecast for India is lowered by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; the production forecast for China is increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. According to the export data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the same period last year and an increase of 50,000 tons compared with the previous month. Among them, the raw cotton exported to China in December was 146,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared with the same period last year and an increase of 40,000 tons compared with the previous month. According to USDA data, as of the week of January 1, the current - year cotton export sales in the United States were 23,200 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.5425 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 239,100 tons; among them, the export to China in that week was 3200 tons, and the cumulative export was 71,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83,900 tons. According to Mysteel data, as of the week of January 9, the spinning - mill operation rate was 64.7%, unchanged from the previous week and an increase of 7.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.57 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons compared with the same period last year [6][8]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Thursday, the price of protein - meal futures fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2283 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the basis of the main contract of soybean meal was 360 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 157 yuan/ton [11]. - According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production is 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous year. Among them, the January forecast for U.S. soybean production is 115.99 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous year; the January forecast for Brazilian production is 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous year; the January forecast for Argentine production is 48.5 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous year. In addition, in the January forecast, the U.S. export volume is slightly lowered by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast. According to MYSTEEL data, as of the week of January 9, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.52 million tons, a decrease of 730,000 tons compared with the previous week; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 8.03 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 310,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The operation rate of sample soybean - oil mills was 49.5%, a decrease of 8.12 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the soybean - meal inventory of sample oil mills was 930,000 tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 370,000 tons compared with the same period last year [12]. Oils Market Information - On Thursday, the price of oil futures fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 7938 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan/ton or 0.77% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 8578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton or 1.94% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 8828 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121 yuan/ton or 1.35% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the main contract of soybean oil was 562 yuan/ton; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 8650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the main contract of palm oil was 72 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 772 yuan/ton [15]. - According to USDA data, the January estimate for U.S. soybean - oil consumption is 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.249 million tons compared with the December estimate and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. According to the data of the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's total vegetable - oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November. According to the data released by MPOB, Malaysia's palm - oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, higher than the expected 2.97 million tons; the production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.76 million tons; the export volume increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, better than the expected 1.25 million tons. MPOB estimates that Malaysia's palm - oil production in 2026 will be 19.5 - 19.8 million tons, lower than the 20.28 million tons in 2025. According to the data released by SPPOMA, from January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm - oil production decreased by 20.49% month - on - month, the fresh - fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 20.49%, and the oil - extraction rate remained unchanged. According to the sample data released by MMYSTEEL, as of the week of January 9, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.08 million tons, an increase of 158,600 tons compared with the same period last year and a decrease of 70,200 tons compared with the previous week [16]. Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.03 yuan to 3.49 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained unchanged at 3.2 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.09 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin. The supply changed little, the downstream demand was relatively normal, and some industry players still had a bullish sentiment. It is expected that today's national egg price may be stable or rising [19]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price showed mixed trends. The average price in Henan increased by 0.08 yuan to 13.07 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 12.77 yuan/kg. Pig farms in the north generally had a sentiment of waiting for price increases, and the pig price may continue to rise. In the southern market, it was more difficult to sell high - priced pigs, and there was a possibility of further price cuts to increase sales volume [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term due to rising production, weakening demand, and insufficient downstream inventory reduction willingness, along with the long - standing core contradictions in the industry remaining unresolved. The glass market is also expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short term, with supply contraction being the core price - supporting factor, but facing challenges from weak downstream real - estate data and the cancellation of export tax - rebate policies [8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash**: On January 15, the main contract SA605 of soda ash slightly declined, closing at 1193 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 2.05% from the previous day, with an intraday increase of 30,978 lots. The overall supply - demand pattern shows rising production, weakening demand, and inventory is expected to face continuous accumulation pressure. The downstream float glass industry is still weak, and the long - standing core contradictions in the industry remain unresolved. If the export scale does not expand significantly or the elimination of backward production capacity is slower than expected, the supply - demand pattern is not optimistic. In the short term, it will likely maintain a weak and volatile pattern [7][8] - **Glass**: On January 15, the main contract FG2605 of glass futures was weak and volatile, rising during the day and then falling. The glass production line is generally in a loss state, and there is still an expectation of cold repair before the festival, so the supply is expected to further narrow. The overall inventory base is still high. In the short term, supply contraction will support prices, but downstream real - estate data continues to decline year - on - year, and the cancellation of export tax - rebate policies squeezes profit margins. Before substantial benefits such as capacity clearance appear, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [9] 3.2 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production volume of flat glass, etc., with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][13][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost - end, while the ethylene glycol price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Main Contract**: On January 15, the PTA main futures contract TA605 fell 1.90%, and the basis strengthened to - 65 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price of PTA in East China today is 5047 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end Brent crude oil dropped back to around $64/barrel after a sharp rise over the weekend. The PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 76.76% compared to the previous working day. A new materials unit reduced its load for maintenance this week, and a Xin凤鸣 unit restarted. The weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.62 days, a 0.02 - day increase from the previous period [3]. - **Main Force Movements**: There is a divergence between long and short main forces [3]. - **Trend Expectation**: The current PTA processing fee is high, but there are no plans to further increase the load of PTA plants. The terminal weaving inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the situation of polyester factories taking early holidays before the Spring Festival. It is expected that terminal demand will weaken before the end of January. The market is unanimously bullish on upstream PX, and the PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost - end [3]. MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Main Contract**: On January 15, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 fell 1.11%, and the basis weakened to - 161 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today is 3677 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end coal price is under pressure. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 72.8 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons from the previous period [4]. - **Main Force Movements**: Short - side main forces increased their positions [4]. - **Trend Expectation**: The recent arrivals of ethylene glycol are still relatively high, and the inventory accumulation expectation has not been reversed. There are maintenance plans for multiple overseas units in the future, but the downstream polyester start - up is expected to decline. The ethylene glycol price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation in the short term [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 支撑 | 基本面未好转，上行驱动不强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows diverse trends. Pig prices break through and rise, cotton continues to climb, palm oil fluctuates at a high level, soybean meal oscillates downward, sugar and eggs oscillate upward, and the prices of different varieties are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and technical indicators [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Pig prices break through and rise above the 12,000 mark, with reduced supply from breeders and increased pre - year - end stocking demand on the demand side, and the futures price may gradually open up an upward space [1]. - Cotton prices continue to rise, supported by the expected decline in cotton planting in Xinjiang this year and strong downstream demand [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking - **Pig**: The main 2603 contract breaks through and rises, boosted by the peak demand season. After the peak slaughter in December 2025, the slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises in January decreases, and the supply of suitable - weight pigs decreases. The demand for southern curing and pre - Spring Festival demand support the price. The price has a 6.8% increase from late December to early January. Technically, it turns strong, and the strategy is to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 11,800 - 11,880 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The main 2605 contract first rises and then falls, narrowing the increase. Indonesia cancels the B50 plan, which has a bearish impact. However, Malaysia's palm oil exports are strong, and production decreases, which is conducive to inventory reduction. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil, which may support the price. Technically, it remains strong, and the strategy is to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 8,680 - 8,700 [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2605 contract oscillates downward, pressured by abundant domestic supply. The USDA report is bearish, and domestic soybean imports are large, with high inventory, suppressing the price. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is short - term trading [5]. - **Cotton**: The main 2605 contract continues to oscillate upward, supported by strong downstream demand. The USDA report is bullish, and the expected decline in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 and strong demand support the price. Technically, it stabilizes, and the strategy is to go long with a light position, with support at 14,620 - 14,700 [7]. - **Sugar**: The main 2605 contract oscillates upward, recovering the previous day's decline. The expected increase in pre - year - end consumption supports the price. Although the supply is sufficient, the demand is boosted by Spring Festival stocking. Technically, it turns strong, and the strategy is to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 5,270 - 5,280 [9]. - **Egg**: The main 2603 contract oscillates and rebounds after two - day adjustment. The high inventory of laying hens and the start of Spring Festival stocking limit the downside space. Technically, it oscillates, and the strategy is short - term trading [11].

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: January 14, 2026 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 14, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed results. Shanghai Tin rose 8%, Shanghai Silver rose over 8%, Fuel Oil rose over 6%, and Platinum rose over 3%. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) and Pure Benzene rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Lithium Carbonate fell over 3%, Caustic Soda fell over 2%, and Glass, Polysilicon, Coking Coal, and Rapeseed Meal fell over 1% [6]. - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.29%, the SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.62%, the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.94%, and the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.09%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract remained flat, the 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract rose 0.08%, and the 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.04% [7]. 1.2 Capital Flow - As of 15:18 on January 14, in terms of capital inflows into domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai Silver 2604 had an inflow of 4.395 billion yuan, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 4.248 billion yuan, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 2603 had an inflow of 3.545 billion yuan. In terms of outflows, Lithium Carbonate 2605 had an outflow of 785 million yuan, Shanghai Gold 2602 had an outflow of 578 million yuan, and Alumina 2605 had an outflow of 316 million yuan [7]. 2. Market Analysis of Key Varieties 2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai Copper opened high and moved higher, rising during the day. The US inflation data in December increased market expectations of an interest rate cut in April. In terms of supply, copper smelters are facing profit challenges, and refined copper production is expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may tighten the copper supply. In terms of demand, terminal demand is growing strongly, but the copper product sector is cautious, and copper inventories have increased significantly. The market is worried about the US refining copper tariff, which supports the copper price [9]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened high and then declined during the day. In December 2025, production increased, and inventory started to accumulate. The demand for energy storage batteries remains strong, but the export tax rebate policy adjustment and the exchange's trading policy adjustment have affected the market. Despite the downward movement in the short term, the overall sentiment is still bullish, with the risk of CATL resuming production [11]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory increased. The market is still worried about demand, and the global crude oil market is in a state of oversupply. The situation in Iran and Venezuela may affect the supply, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [12][13]. 2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased last week, and the expected production in January 2026 also decreased. The downstream demand is weak in the north and average in the south. The situation in Venezuela may affect the raw material supply and production cost of domestic asphalt. It is recommended to focus on the raw material shortage of domestic refineries and consider reverse arbitrage [14][16]. 2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP is at a low level, and the enterprise start - up rate is at a medium - low level. The cost is affected by the international situation, and the supply is increasing with new capacity. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The upward space of PP is expected to be limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17]. 2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate is at a low level. The cost is affected by the international situation, and new capacity has been put into production. The downstream demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19]. 2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate is increasing, but the downstream demand is weak, and the export is average. The social inventory is high, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. With the cancellation of export tax rebates, the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly [20]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened low and then adjusted downward nearly 2% during the day. The supply of imported coal decreased, while domestic production increased. Coking enterprises and steel mills are replenishing inventory. Despite the short - term adjustment, Coking Coal is expected to remain strong in the long term [22]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened low and rose over 2% during the day. The daily production has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The agricultural demand is increasing, but the industrial demand is weakening due to the approaching Spring Festival. The short - term strength of urea is expected to be difficult to sustain, and it will be adjusted at a high level [23].