1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly concerned about the Fed's interest rate decision, with a general expectation of a 25bp rate cut. Most commodities are in a state of waiting for the outcome of the meeting, and their short - term trends are affected by this expectation [4][6][16]. - Domestic policies are being introduced to boost service consumption, and the A - share market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, while the bond market remains on the sidelines [3]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals, which, combined with macro - factors, determine their price trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, higher than expected, indicating strong consumption. The market is waiting for the FOMC result, with the US dollar index falling, and the gold price hitting a new high [2]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments have introduced new policies for service consumption. The A - share market is oscillating, with more than 3,600 stocks rising. The bond market is sensitive to negatives, and the 10Y and 30Y interest rates have been restored to 1.78% and 2.08% respectively [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver showed mixed performance. COMEX gold futures rose 0.23% to $3,727.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.19% to $42.88 per ounce. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but some funds are cautious as the rate - cut approaches [4]. Copper - Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market is cautious. The expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut this month may have been digested. The market is highly concerned about the future path of the "dot plot". Part of the overseas long - position funds have taken profits in advance. The dollar index is continuously weakening, and the copper price still has upward potential in the medium term [6]. Aluminum - The aluminum price continued to oscillate strongly. The market's strong expectation of a Fed rate cut has boosted the aluminum price. However, high prices have restricted downstream procurement to some extent. The consumption peak season needs to be verified, and the price needs fundamental support to rise further [7][8]. Zinc - The expectation of a large - scale rate cut has weakened. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, supporting the price of London zinc and thus the Shanghai zinc price. The domestic downstream procurement is still cautious, and the zinc price oscillates narrowly in the short term [9]. Lead - The expectation of refinery复产 has increased, and the supply - side support for the lead price has weakened. However, the expected stocking demand of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day holiday and the expected outflow of some goods after delivery will support the price. The lead price is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [10]. Tin - The LME 0 - 3 BACK has slightly widened, and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and domestic refinery maintenance support the price. However, the increase in inventory at home and abroad and insufficient downstream consumption make it difficult for the price to rise. The tin price will continue to oscillate horizontally in the short term [11]. Industrial Silicon - The demand expectation has improved, and the industrial silicon price is running strongly. The supply is slightly shrinking, and the demand side shows signs of improvement. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Carbonate Lithium - The lithium price may still rise. The downstream stocking expectation is strong, but the acceptance of prices is weak. The risk of resource disruption has not been eliminated, and the high - level emphasis on anti - involution provides support for the price [14]. Nickel - As the Fed's interest rate meeting approaches, the market generally expects a 25bp rate cut. If there is no more - than - expected rate cut, the nickel price may experience a phased correction. The nickel ore market is generally loose, and the domestic nickel - iron cost pressure remains [15][16]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions and inventory reduction have led to an oscillating and strengthening oil price. Although the market has a strong expectation of oversupply in the fourth quarter, the significant reduction in API crude oil inventory has boosted the bulls' sentiment. Geopolitical premiums are continuously factored in [17][18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities. The soda ash price increase may be related to demand and macro - expectations. The glass factory's shipment is smooth, and the market expects the Fed's interest rate meeting to drive domestic liquidity release. One can pay attention to the opportunity of the narrowing spread between glass and soda ash [19][20]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is oscillating. After the continuous rise, the market sentiment has been released, and the fundamental demand is poor. The supply has increased, and the peak - season expectation is difficult to be fulfilled. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's rate cut on the market [21]. Iron Ore - The port inventory has decreased, and the futures price is oscillating and rebounding. The external ore shipment has increased significantly, and the demand side is supported by the high - level resumption of blast - furnace operation. There is still an expectation of restocking in mid - to - late September [22]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The market trading is light, and the Dalian soybean meal is oscillating within a range. The short - term supply is under pressure, and the long - term import is uncertain. The future trend depends on the US bio - fuel redistribution plan and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations [23][24]. Palm Oil - The palm oil is oscillating and adjusting. The price of edible oils, including palm oil, is expected to be firm. The supply is expected to be less than the demand in 2025 and 2026. The strong performance of rapeseed oil and the impact of weather on palm oil production and export support the price [25].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bottom support of nickel and stainless steel prices is relatively stable, and the prices are rising. Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, easily affected by macro - sentiment, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding as inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks and material costs have risen. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [1][3]. Market Analysis of Nickel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 122,580 yuan/ton, a change of 1.15% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 102,679 (- 42,422) lots, and the open interest was 70,610 (- 2,030) lots. The night session of the main contract stabilized at a high level, standing above 122,000 yuan/ton. After the opening of the day session, it declined slightly but then rose with the overall metal sector, reaching a maximum of 122,900 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel Ore - The market remained calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm but slightly delayed due to rainfall. Downstream nickel - iron had a strong bullish sentiment, but iron plants were still in the red and were cautious in nickel - ore procurement. In Indonesia, the supply remained loose, with the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price rising by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars. The current domestic trade premium was +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was generally average, and the premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand were slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,959 (+1,430) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 224,484 (- 600) tons [2]. Strategy for Nickel - Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, and the overall strategy is based on range trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,945 yuan/ton and closed at 13,070 yuan/ton, a change of 1.20% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 180,934 (+180,934) lots, and the open interest was 133,829 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session trend was stable, but after the opening of the day session, affected by the price increase of a large domestic stainless - steel plant, the price rose strongly, reaching a maximum of 13,100 yuan/ton and slightly retracting at the close [3]. Spot - Affected by the rise of the futures price, the spot price increased. Although the acceptance of high - priced goods was low, inquiries increased significantly, market activity improved, and actual transactions were fair. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 250 to 550 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy for Stainless Steel - With inventory decreasing for nine consecutive weeks and material costs rising, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No clear overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific ratings for some products are as follows: - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Expected to be strong [1] - Aluminum: Expected to be strong [1] - Nickel: Short - term bullish, long - term bearish pressure exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term bullish, suggest short - term operation [1] - Tin: Expected to strengthen in shock [1] - Palm oil: Long - term bullish, short - term risk of correction [1] - Rapeseed oil: Suggest 11 - 1 positive spread strategy [1] - PTA: No clear rating, but downstream situation is positive [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Market liquidity has weakened its driving force on stock index futures. With dense macro events this week, it is recommended to control risks in stock index futures positions and adjust for long - positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - The approaching Fed rate cut in September provides support for gold prices, which may run strongly at high levels in the short term [1]. - US CPI inflation data meets expectations, removing obstacles for the Fed rate cut. Along with the approaching consumption peak season, copper and aluminum prices are expected to be strong [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the Fed rate cut expectation is rising, and the market is concerned about the fourth - quarter nickel ore quota approval in Indonesia. Different metals have different trends based on their fundamentals [1]. - For black metals, supply surplus pressure remains, and although there is marginal improvement in peak - season demand, prices are under pressure [1]. - For agricultural products, different products have different trends. For example, cotton supply may be tight in the short term, while sugar prices are expected to be weak in shock [1]. - For energy and chemical products, various factors such as device operation, supply and demand, and cost affect the price trends of different products [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - Stock index futures: Control risks in positions and adjust for long - positions due to weakened liquidity driving force and dense macro events [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Gold: Supported by the approaching Fed rate cut, may run strongly at high levels in the short term [1]. - Silver: Bullish [1]. - Copper: May be strong due to meeting inflation expectations and approaching consumption peak season [1]. - Aluminum: Expected to be strong with the Fed rate cut expectation and approaching consumption peak season [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the price is close to the cost line, with limited downward space [1]. - Zinc: Narrow rebound due to improved macro sentiment but pressured by increasing social inventory [1]. - Nickel: Short - term shock and bullish, but long - term surplus pressure exists [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term shock and bullish, wait for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: Expected to strengthen in shock with improved demand in the peak season [1]. Black metals - Rebar: Valuation returns to neutral, industry driving force is unclear, and macro driving force is warm, with a shock trend [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - Iron ore: Shock trend due to unfavorable short - term fundamentals [1]. - Glass: Supply surplus pressure exists, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Soda ash: Weak reality, supply surplus, and price pressure [1]. - Coal and coke: Fundamentals are weakening, with a shock and weakening trend [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: Short - term correction risk, long - term bullish, wait for callback to go long [1]. - Soybean: Pay attention to the adjustment of new - crop soybean yield per unit in the US, and the long - term bullish logic for oils in the fourth quarter remains [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Suggest 11 - 1 positive spread strategy [1]. - Cotton: Short - term supply may be tight, and the acquisition game during the new - cotton acquisition period is the focus [1]. - Sugar: Expected to be weak in shock, with limited short - term downward space [1]. - Corn: Expected to be weak in the short term due to negative news and new - grain selling pressure [1]. - Soybean meal: Maintains range - bound shock in the short term, and pay attention to Sino - US policy changes later [1]. - Pulp: The bottom range is initially shown, but there is no bullish driving force yet [1]. - Log: Weak shock due to unchanged fundamentals and falling external quotes [1]. - Live pigs: Supply continues to increase, downstream acceptance is limited, and the overall is weak [1]. Energy and chemical products - Crude oil: Affected by geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production increase plan, and Fed rate cut expectation [1]. - Fuel oil: Similar influencing factors as crude oil [1]. - Natural rubber: Supported by raw material cost and decreasing inventory [1]. - BR rubber: Pay attention to inventory de - stocking progress and autumn device maintenance [1]. - PTA: Production increases, basis declines rapidly, and downstream profits are repaired [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Basis strengthens, but new device production and hedging pressure exist [1]. - Short - fiber: Factory devices return, and market delivery willingness weakens [1]. - Pure benzene and styrene: Supply increases after maintenance, and domestic import pressure increases [1]. - PF: Price is weak in shock [1]. - PP: Market returns to fundamentals, with increasing supply pressure [1]. - PVC: Peak - season performance is not as expected, and inventory accumulates [1]. - Caustic soda: Weak in short - term shock [1]. - LPG: Suppressed by bearish fundamentals despite production increase [1]. Others - Container shipping: Supply in September exceeds the same - period level, and freight rates are declining [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Palm Oil (medium to long term), Other Oils (fourth quarter) [1] - **Bearish**: Anti -内卷 products, Black metals, Coke, Coking coal, Benzene ethylene [1] - **Sideways**: Treasury bonds, Silver, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial silicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Shanghai rubber, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, Big - three products, PE, PVC, LPG [1] Core Views - Short - term stock index futures discount widening and liquidity drive may offer long - position opportunities during short - term index adjustments; asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress upward movement [1] - The approaching Fed rate cut in September provides support for gold prices, and the price may remain strong at high levels in the short term [1] - U.S. inflation data in line with expectations and the approaching consumption peak season may lead to stronger prices for copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals, but factors such as inventory accumulation may put pressure on some metal prices [1] - For agricultural products, although short - term factors may cause price fluctuations, the long - term bullish logic for some oils remains unchanged [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as production resumption, production increase plans, and changes in supply and demand affect product prices, with some products facing downward pressure and others showing short - term adjustment risks [1] Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Gold**: The approaching Fed rate cut in September provides support, and it may remain strong at high levels in the short term [1] - **Copper**: U.S. inflation data in line with expectations and the approaching consumption peak season may lead to stronger prices [1] - **Aluminum**: Fed rate - cut expectations and the approaching consumption peak season are favorable, but high inventory may put pressure on prices [1] - **Alumina**: Output and inventory are increasing, but the price is close to the cost line, with limited downward space [1] - **Zinc**: Macro sentiment improvement supports the non - ferrous sector, but continuous inventory accumulation pressures zinc prices, with a narrow rebound [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term supply concerns and approaching stainless - steel peak season may lead to a short - term strong - side shock, but long - term primary nickel surplus pressure remains [1] - **Stainless steel**: Raw material price increases and inventory reduction, with short - term strong - side shock operation [1] - **Tin**: With improved macro sentiment and expected demand improvement in the peak season, the price is expected to strengthen in shock [1] Black metals - **Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore**: Valuation returns to neutral, with unclear industrial drivers and warm macro drivers, showing a sideways trend [1] - **Anti -内卷 products**: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery, possible demand weakening, and high inventory [1] - **Coke, Coking coal**: Supply - demand imbalance, with supply surplus pressure and price under pressure [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: MPOB report shows slight inventory accumulation, with short - term callback risk and long - term bullish logic [1] - **Other oils**: USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the fourth - quarter bullish logic remains unchanged [1] - **Cotton**: New - crop cotton has a high - yield expectation, with short - term supply tightness and acquisition game as the focus [1] - **Sugar**: New - sugar pre - sale price is lower, with limited short - term downward space and expected sideways - weak trend [1] - **Soybeans**: 9 - month USDA report is bearish, but the U.S. market is strong, with limited downward space for the domestic market and short - term sideways movement [1] Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil, Fuel oil**: Geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production increase plan, and Fed rate - cut expectations coexist, with a loose fundamental situation [1] - **Shanghai rubber**: Raw material cost support is strong, but inventory reduction is slow and short - term market sentiment is weak [1] - **BR rubber**: Attention should be paid to inventory reduction progress and autumn device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Domestic production recovers, the basis declines rapidly, and downstream polyester starts to operate at a high load [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The basis strengthens, but new device production and increased hedging pressure the market [1] - **Short - fiber**: Factory devices return, and market delivery willingness weakens [1] - **Benzene ethylene**: Supply increases significantly, and domestic import pressure rises [1] - **Big - three products**: Limited upward space due to weak domestic demand, with cost - end support [1] - **PE, PVC**: Sideways - weak trend due to factors such as limited maintenance support and supply pressure [1] - **LPG**: Crude oil production increase and other factors suppress upward movement [1]

Group 1: Real Estate Sales - The real estate market in first and second-tier cities shows signs of marginal recovery, with new home sales experiencing a year-on-year decline that has narrowed to 3.58% [5][10] - In first-tier cities, the year-on-year decline in new home sales has significantly narrowed to 3.66%, while second-tier cities have seen a positive year-on-year change [5][19] - Second-hand home sales in major cities have generally increased compared to the previous period and last year, with notable growth in most cities [19] Group 2: Investment and Commodity Prices - Commodity prices are generally on a downward trend, with slight decreases in rebar and cement prices, while glass futures prices have seen a small increase [23][49] - The price index for asphalt has decreased, indicating ongoing weak market demand [23] Group 3: Production and Operating Rates - The operating rates for various industries, including steel mills and asphalt production, have generally increased, indicating a positive trend in production activity [34] - The operating rate for oil asphalt has seen a significant increase from 28.1% to 34.9% [3] Group 4: Consumer Activity - Consumer activity shows strong momentum, with subway ridership exceeding seasonal expectations, while automotive consumption and domestic flight operations align with seasonal trends [39] Group 5: Export Trends - The SCFI index has declined, indicating a decrease in container shipping rates, while the BDI index has increased, suggesting a rise in dry bulk shipping rates [43] Group 6: Price Trends - Pork prices have seen a slight increase, while vegetable prices have decreased, and oil prices have risen, reflecting mixed trends in consumer prices [49]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets will continue to show a volatile trend until the interest rate cut is implemented [1] - In the short term, nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside space. For stainless steel, inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [2][4][5] Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,520 yuan/ton and closed at 120,620 yuan/ton, a 0.11% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 87,538 (+12,532) lots, and the open interest was 81,691 (79) lots. The contract oscillated in the range of 120,110 - 120,910 yuan/ton at night and in the daytime, and finally closed slightly up by 140 yuan. The slowdown of the US August PPI year - on - year increase and the decline of core PPI month - on - month strengthened the September interest rate cut expectation, but the market is waiting for the US CPI data, resulting in cautious bullish sentiment and strong wait - and - see attitude [2] Nickel Ore - The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and ocean freight continues to rise. Philippine quotes remain firm, and subsequent mine quotes may rise due to the increase in downstream nickel - iron prices. Shipment is slightly delayed due to rainfall. The new transaction price in the domestic nickel - iron market is 960 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch). Domestic iron plants still have profit losses and are cautious in nickel ore procurement. The supply in Indonesia remains in a loose pattern, and the September (forward) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to rise by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, with the domestic trade premium remaining at +24 and the premium range being +23 - 24 [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price oscillates horizontally, downstream wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and spot trading is generally average. The premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand remain stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changes by 50 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changes by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume is 22,111 (-193) tons, and the LME nickel inventory is 223,152 (2,058) tons [3] Strategy - Short - term nickel price: mainly volatile, easily affected by macro - sentiment, supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, limited upside space. Unilateral: mainly range operation; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,905 yuan/ton and closed at 12,870 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,848 (-2,615.00) lots, and the open interest was 128,344 (5,176) lots. It oscillated in the range of 12,885 - 12,930 yuan/ton at night and closed slightly up. During the daytime, due to the weakening of black - series futures, it failed to continue the night - session upward trend and finally closed down 45 yuan [4] Spot - Due to the narrow - range oscillation of the futures market, downstream buyers are cautious and mainly purchase on demand. Transactions are dull, and prices remain stable. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B is 325 - 625 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron changes by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point [4][5] Strategy - Inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound in stainless steel prices. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. Unilateral: neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with social inventories starting to decline. Macro factors drive the upward trend of aluminum prices, and there are few negative micro - factors. Consumption is showing signs of improvement, and aluminum prices may see a resonance upward trend [6]. - The alumina market still has an oversupply situation, but the current price has reached the marginal production cost. There are factors such as mine price support and north - to - south transportation, but there is no clear upward drive, so the price is treated neutrally [8]. - The aluminum alloy market is in the off - season, with cost support. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities as the 11 - contract turns into a peak - season contract [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - On September 11, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium was 0 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,740 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 120 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,810 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 45 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On September 11, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,780 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,920 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,750 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 106,885 lots, and the open interest was 204,582 lots [2]. Alumina Spot - On September 11, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,025 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,005 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,065 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,215 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,230 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 338 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On September 11, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,923 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,945 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton (0.79% change). The highest price was 2,962 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,923 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 249,216 lots, and the open interest was 273,311 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - On September 11, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 16,000 yuan/ton, the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 16,200 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation was 20,400 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 70,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,373 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 27 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - Although the strong - side oscillation of aluminum prices suppresses downstream purchasing enthusiasm, the transition from the off - season to the peak season is a fact. Spot discounts are slightly repaired, and social inventories enter the destocking cycle. Macro factors drive the price increase, and there are few negative micro - factors. Supply remains unchanged, consumption shows improvement, and downstream processing enterprises' production and operating rates increase [6]. Alumina - The latest transaction in Western Australia shows a decline in price. The oversupply pattern remains, but the price has reached the marginal production cost. There is support from the mine end, and the north - to - south transportation keeps the southern price firm, but there is no clear upward drive [8]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is in the off - season, the price fluctuates with the aluminum price, there is supply tension of scrap and raw aluminum, and there is cost support. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract [9]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10]. Arbitrage - Shanghai aluminum positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean import cost is expected to remain weakly stable, and the domestic soybean meal market is likely to enter a destocking phase in September, with soybean meal prices predicted to fluctuate within a range [3][5]. - The central price of oils is supported by multiple factors, and they are expected to show a moderately upward - trending oscillation in the medium term, with a strategy of buying on dips and stabilization [7][10]. - The sugar price is generally bearish, and its downward space depends on the Brazilian sugar production from August to October [13]. - The cotton price is likely to continue oscillating in the short term due to the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors [15][16]. - The egg price may be stable or rise in the short term, but there is a possibility of a decline after a short - term increase, with a suggestion to wait and see and consider short - term long positions on significant declines [18][20]. - The pig price is expected to remain at a low level with minor fluctuations, and the futures market should pay attention to potential rebounds and short - selling opportunities after rebounds [22][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **Important Information**: On Thursday, US soybeans rose slightly, and the domestic soybean meal market was affected by high inventory. The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks, and the soybean good - quality rate may decline. The Brazilian soybean premium has rebounded after a decline. The domestic soybean inventory of oil mills has reached a five - year high, and the soybean meal inventory has slightly increased. Last week, 2.3 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and 2.26 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the cost performance after the stabilization of the soybean import cost. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to destock in September, and it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and be cautious about profit margins and supply pressure at the upper end [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and the production decreased by 3.17% compared to the same period last month. The import price of palm oil in China has a larger negative spread. The domestic three major oils oscillated on Thursday, with multiple factors affecting the market [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The central price of oils is supported, and they are expected to oscillate moderately upward in the medium term. With high current valuations, the strategy is to buy on dips and stabilization [10]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to rebound. The Brazilian port's sugar - waiting - to - be - shipped quantity decreased slightly. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed different degrees of increase [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The sugar price is generally bearish, and its downward space depends on the Brazilian sugar production from August to October [13]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate weakly. The开机 rates of spinning and weaving factories increased slightly, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased. The US cotton export signing volume and Brazil's cotton exports to China showed different trends [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market has both bullish and bearish factors, and the short - term cotton price is expected to continue oscillating [16]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg price mostly increased, with small inventory and good demand, and the market trading was smooth [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg supply is still large, but there are factors limiting the decline. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - term long positions on significant declines [20]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend, with a low - level consolidation state and a high probability of remaining stable [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply in September is bearish, but there are potential supporting factors. The spot price is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the futures market should pay attention to potential rebounds and short - selling opportunities after rebounds [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Zinc, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Ethanol, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, PP, Alumina [1] - **Bearish**: Iron Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Soda Ash, Black Metal, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping Routes [1] - **Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Alumina, Stainless Steel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Paper Pulp, Live Pigs, Natural Rubber, PE, PP, PVC, PG [1] Core Views of the Report - Short - term stock index futures' discount has widened again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustments may bring long - position layout opportunities. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, providing support for gold prices. [1] - For base metals, the US CPI inflation data basically meets expectations, increasing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The approaching consumption peak season may drive up copper and aluminum prices. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but there is still pressure from long - term primary nickel oversupply. [1] - In the black metal sector, the supply - demand situation is not optimistic in the short - term, with supply recovering and demand at risk of weakening, and high inventory levels. The steel market is under pressure due to supply surplus. [1] - In the agricultural products sector, the market situation varies. For example, palm oil has short - term callback risks but long - term upward logic. Cotton has short - term supply tightness, while sugar is expected to be in a weak - sideway trend. [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, the overall situation is affected by factors such as production increases, cost support, and demand changes. For example, crude oil's fundamental situation is loose, and PTA's production has recovered. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term discount widening and liquidity drive may offer long - position opportunities during short - term index adjustments [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning suppresses upside [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed's expected September interest - rate cut provides support, short - term high - level strong operation with attention to volatility risks [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level strong operation [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US inflation data and approaching consumption peak season may drive up prices [1] - **Aluminum**: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and consumption peak season may lead to a strong trend [1] - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, but price is near the cost line with limited downward space [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures the price, but LME inventory decline and macro support limit the downside [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - driven strong oscillation, long - term primary nickel oversupply pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Raw - material support exists, short - term sideway operation [1] - **Tin**: Overall support exists, pay attention to low - long opportunities [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drive is unclear, and macro drive is positive [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward adjustment opportunities [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term supply - demand is not optimistic, with high inventory [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is weak, price is under pressure [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus pressure is large, price is under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term callback risk, long - term upward logic [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic inventory increase may pressure the price, but long - term upward logic remains [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term supply tightness, new - cotton acquisition game is the focus [1] - **Sugar**: Expected to be in a weak - sideway trend, short - term downward space is limited [1] - **Corn**: New - grain harvest may bring selling pressure, C01 is expected to decline [1] - **Soybean Meal**: MO1 has limited downward space, short - term sideway adjustment, consider low - long [1] - **Paper Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread [1] - **Logs**: Fundamental situation is stable, price is in a weak - sideway trend [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tension, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectation affect the price [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar influencing factors as crude oil [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Raw - material cost support, slow inventory removal, and negative market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Follow crude oil, pay attention to inventory removal and device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Production recovery, downstream profit improvement [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthening, new device production pressure [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Device return, weakening delivery willingness [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Inventory accumulation, supply increase, import pressure [1] - **PE**: Macro - positive, more maintenance, weak - sideway price [1] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, sideway - weak trend [1] - **PVC**: Return to fundamentals, supply pressure, sideway - weak trend [1] - **Alumina**: Approaching peak season, low inventory, price rebound [1] - **LPG**: Crude oil production increase, fundamental pressure, downstream profit deterioration [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping Routes**: September supply exceeds the same - period level, freight rate decline is faster than expected [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is likely, but its impact on copper prices depends on the reason and background. The "stagflation-like" environment in the US restricts the scope of rate cuts. In the short term, rate cuts boost copper's financial attributes, raising the bottom price, but the upside is limited. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectations." The demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply - demand deterioration is limited. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to improve marginally, and the terminal demand is resilient. Copper prices are expected to at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The reference range for the main contract is 79,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." The short - term import of bauxite is tight, but new production capacity is continuously being put into operation. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. - For aluminum, macro factors support the price, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, the price increase is restricted by the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton pressure range. It is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the expectation of Fed rate cuts boosts the sentiment of commodities. The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is affected by tax policy adjustments, and the demand has slightly recovered but needs verification. The price of ADC12 is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The improvement of rate - cut expectations boosts zinc prices. The supply side is expected to be loose, and the demand side is about to enter the peak season. The low global inventory supports the price. In the short term, the price may be driven by macro factors, but the upside is limited, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The spot market transactions are differentiated. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the rate - cut rhythm remains unchanged. Industrially, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The profit of stainless steel is in deficit, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market shows a weak trend. The raw material prices are firm, and the supply pressure exists. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is optimistic as it enters the peak season. The overall inventory has decreased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main contract reference range of 70,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.54% to 80,175 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread and other indicators also changed to varying degrees. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The inventory of various types also changed [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.53% to 20,860 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions also changed. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 7.7382 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The inventory also showed corresponding changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 0.48% to 20,960 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference of various types increased. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose by 0.41% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, the import volume was 17,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%. The inventory also changed [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.37% to 271,100 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The inventory of various types also changed [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased slightly. The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products increased by 1.26% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 8.46%. The inventory of various types also changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged. The raw material prices remained stable. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month, and the net export volume increased by 22.37%. The inventory decreased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The prices of lithium - related raw materials also decreased. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production increased by 4.55% month - on - month, and the demand increased by 8.25%. The inventory decreased [15].