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黑色板块日报-20250902
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 06:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, the focus has shifted to verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonally, demand should pick up and inventory decline during the peak season, but concerns remain due to the real - estate market's slow recovery. Technically, both rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the Bollinger Bands' lower support, possibly opening a downward space [2]. - For the iron ore market, although the iron ore trend is the strongest among the black series due to potential growth in steel mill's molten iron production after the parade, the upward space is limited as the molten iron output is already high and terminal demand is not optimistic. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season. Technically, the 01 contract shows a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Focus**: The market is now focused on verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonal patterns suggest that demand should rise and inventory fall during the peak season, but the real - estate market's slow recovery may lead to lower - than - expected demand [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar production increased, apparent demand slightly rose, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week. Total production of the five major varieties increased, total inventory rose, and apparent demand also increased. After the parade, production is expected to further increase [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the lower support of the Bollinger Bands, potentially opening a downward space [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short positions can be held [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - Rebar主力合约收盘价 was 3115 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (-1.42%) from the previous day and 23 yuan (-0.73%) from last week [3]. - 247家钢厂高炉开工率 was 83.36%, down 0.23 percentage points from last week [3]. -全国建材钢厂螺纹钢产量 was 220.56 tons, up 5.91 tons (2.75%) from last week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is fair, but the profit margin has slightly decreased due to the sharp rise in coke prices. After the parade, there is potential for an increase in molten iron production, but the upward space is limited. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract oscillates around the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily K - line, with the overall Bollinger Bands' opening narrowing. It has a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be held [4]. - **Data Highlights**: - 麦克粉(青岛港) was priced at 750 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan (-2.09%) from the previous day and the same from last week [4]. - 澳大利亚铁矿石发货量 was 1640.9 tons, down 78.1 tons (-4.54%) from last week [4]. - 北方六港到货量合计 was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons (12.82%) from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From August 25th to 31st, 2025, the total iron ore arrival at 45 ports in China was 2526.0 tons, a 132.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The arrival at the six northern ports was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons [6]. - As of the week ending August 31st, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3556.8 tons, a 241.0 - ton increase from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2902.1 tons, up 141.7 tons [7]. - Some coal mines in Changzhi Qinyuan area plan to stop production on September 2nd and resume on September 4th. The total approved production capacity of the affected mines is 790 tons, with an estimated impact on daily raw coal production of about 2.52 tons [7]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on September 1st after a 5 - day shutdown. The approved production capacity of this mine is 240 tons, and the total affected raw coal production during the shutdown was 4 tons [8].
中辉能化观点-20250902
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 02:00
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol (MEG), urea [27][30][34][41] - **Bearish Dominance**: Crude oil, LPG, PVC, methanol [1][23][37] - **Sideways with Bearish Bias**: L, PP, asphalt, glass, soda ash [14][19][3] Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical disturbances do not change the oversupply situation, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties may cause price fluctuations, but the supply - side pressure is increasing, and the price has a large downward pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][4][5] - LPG: It follows the rebound of the cost - side oil price, but the fundamentals of crude oil are bearish, and there is still room for downward compression. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][8][11] - L: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the seasonal peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will gradually turn into a double - strong pattern. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [14][17] - PP: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply is still under pressure in the medium term, and the upward drive is insufficient. However, the absolute price is low, providing some support. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities [19][21] - PVC: The cost support is insufficient, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. It is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space of the disk is limited [23][25] - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but the macro - environment is expected to be loose. It is recommended to hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips and sell put options [27][28][29] - PTA: Recent device maintenance has led to a significant decline in the operating load. Later, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while the demand shows signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [30][32][33] - MEG: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [34][35][36] - Methanol: The supply - side pressure has increased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels [37][38][40] - Urea: The supply is expected to be loose, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] - Asphalt: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - Glass: The supply is under pressure, and the demand support is insufficient. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - Soda ash: The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is mostly for rigid needs. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with Brent rising 0.99% and SC rising 0.14%. WTI had no quote due to the holiday [4] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase uncertainties. As the peak season ends, the demand support for oil prices weakens, and the pressure from OPEC+ production increases. The US crude oil production in June reached a record high, while India's crude oil imports decreased. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the strategic reserve increased [5][6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. It is recommended to try short positions lightly and focus on the SC range of [485 - 495] [7] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 1, the PG main contract closed at 4364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4540, 4486, and 4580 yuan/ton respectively [10] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of LPG itself is not significant, and its price is mainly linked to the cost - side oil price. The geopolitical risk has increased, but the cost side still has downward space. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased, and the port inventory has decreased [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to move down. It is recommended to hold short positions and focus on the PG range of [4370 - 4470] [12] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan. The North China Ningxia Coal price was 7190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 398 [16] - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the peak season approaches in September, the supply and demand will turn into a double - strong pattern. Some devices are planned to restart, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is increasing [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the approaching peak season, it is recommended to try to go long on dips and focus on the L range of [7200 - 7350] [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The East China drawn wire market price was 6895 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1205 [20] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Recent device restarts and new capacity releases will increase the supply pressure. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply - demand pattern is still loose in the medium term, and the high number of warehouse receipts restricts the rebound space [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the low absolute price, it is recommended to try short - term long positions on dips and focus on the PP range of [6900 - 7000] [21] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4907 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan. The Changzhou spot price was 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 571 [24] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of chlor - alkali is not well - supported, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. Some enterprises' maintenance has ended, and the export to India is expected to slow down [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space is limited. Focus on the V range of [4800 - 4950] [25] PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan. The PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [28] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices at home and abroad have changed little. The PXN spread is at a relatively high level this year, and the gasoline cracking spread has increased. The demand has weakened but is expected to improve. The PX inventory has decreased but is still relatively high [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions, look for opportunities to buy on dips, and sell put options. Focus on the PX511 range of [6820 - 6950] [29] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA price in East China was 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The spot price and basis both weakened. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [31] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, and many devices are under maintenance. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase later. The demand is improving, and the downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating loads have stopped falling and rebounded. The PTA inventory has decreased slightly but is still relatively high [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the TA01 range of [4750 - 4810] [33] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [35] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The cost support still exists [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the EG01 range of [4380 - 4450] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [37] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure has increased as the domestic and overseas device operating loads have increased. The demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The cost support has weakened [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels. Focus on the MA01 range of [2345 - 2395] [40] Urea - **Market Review**: The price of the urea contract has changed slightly, and the domestic and international spot prices have been relatively stable [41] - **Basic Logic**: The urea production is expected to gradually recover in mid - September. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The factory and port inventories have been accumulating [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, the long - short game will intensify, and it is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] Asphalt - **Core View**: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side oil price is expected to decline in the medium - long term, and the asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The spot price in Shandong has decreased significantly, and the basis is at a low level [3] Glass - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - **Basic Logic**: The deep - processing orders have improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased, but the distributor and factory inventories in Hebei have started to accumulate. The daily melting volume is stable, and the demand support is insufficient [3] Soda Ash - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - **Basic Logic**: The enterprise inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but the absolute level is still high. The upstream operating rate has declined, and the production is expected to remain high in September. The demand is mostly for rigid needs [3]
新能源及有色金属日报:海外氧化铝价格成交重心下移-20250828
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 05:41
Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Core Viewpoints - At the transition between the off - season and peak season of aluminum consumption, macro and micro factors resonate. The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is rising again, and the overall non - ferrous metals market is strongly oscillating. The aluminum supply side is stable, and consumption is shifting from the off - season to the peak season. The long - term logic of limited supply and stable consumption growth remains unchanged. For alumina, the supply is in continuous surplus, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices and potential short - term disturbances. For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and seasonal repair trends are emerging [6][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,840 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is - 20 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton. Central China A00 aluminum price is 20,660 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 40 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,790 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 25 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On August 27, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,730 yuan/ton, the closing price is 20,810 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton. The highest price is 20,950 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 20,725 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 212,688 lots, and the open interest is 269,866 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of August 27, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory is 616,000 tons, a change of 2.0 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory is 57,351 tons, a change of 1,077 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory is 481,250 tons, a change of 3,175 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On August 27, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 3,195 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 3,170 yuan/ton, in Henan is 3,205 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 3,315 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 372 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On August 27, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 3,069 yuan/ton, the closing price is 3,046 yuan/ton, a change of - 83 yuan/ton or - 2.65%. The highest price is 3,084 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 3,039 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 318,098 lots, and the open interest is 237,684 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 27, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum procurement price is 15,800 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum procurement price is 15,900 yuan/ton, with no change from yesterday. The Baotai ADC12 quotation is 20,300 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from yesterday [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The aluminum alloy social inventory is 52,100 tons, and the in - plant inventory is 60,300 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 4 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - At the transition between the off - season and peak season of consumption, macro and micro factors resonate. The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is rising again. The aluminum supply side is stable, and consumption is shifting from the off - season to the peak season. The aluminum rod inventory is declining, and the aluminum ingot inventory is expected to decline soon. The peak consumption season is still worth looking forward to, with stable domestic demand and potential for external demand [6] Alumina - In the spot market, Indonesia has a 30,000 - ton alumina transaction at FOB 370 US dollars/ton. The rainy season in Guinea supports the ore price, but the domestic smelters have sufficient ore reserves and high port inventories. The supply is in continuous surplus, and the inventory is increasing. Attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices, and short - term disturbances due to events are possible [7][8] Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 - AL2511 contract spread is - 395 yuan/ton. Consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the spot price spread and smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises are showing seasonal repair trends. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9] 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Bullish on aluminum with caution, bearish on alumina with caution, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution - **Arbitrage**: Long - short spread trading in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [10]
基本面改善有限,沪镍不锈钢价格企稳
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 07:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For the nickel variety, the short - term nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - sentiment. However, the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, approaching the consumption peak season, trading has warmed up, but the fundamentals have not undergone a fundamental change. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will continue to fluctuate in the near future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,310 yuan/ton and closed at 120,370 yuan/ton, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 88,775 lots, and the open interest was 109,267 lots. The night session continued the previous day's upward trend, with high - level narrow - range fluctuations and a slight increase at the end. The day session also fluctuated, with the highest at 120,720 yuan/ton and the lowest at 120,120 yuan/ton, and the whole - day amplitude was only 0.5%. Due to the UK bank holiday, LME nickel was closed, and domestic funds dominated the market with relatively stable risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was fair, and the prices were generally stable. A 1.3% nickel ore in September had CIF transactions in China and Indonesia at 42. The price of 0.9% low - aluminum nickel ore in China increased slightly due to resource shortages. In the Philippines, mining companies' quotes were firm, and rainfall had little impact on shipping efficiency. New nickel - iron orders were concluded, and iron - plant confidence recovered slightly, but they still held a cautious and price - pressing attitude when purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in September (Phase 1) is expected to drop by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars; the current mainstream domestic trade premium of +24 remains unchanged, and the premium in September (Phase 1) is expected to remain the same [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,086 (- 206.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,148 (- 600) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel price mainly shows a volatile trend. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 12,860 yuan/ton and closed at 12,840 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 102,727 lots, and the open interest was 133,659 lots. The night session was boosted by macro - sentiment, continued the previous day's rebound, fluctuated narrowly around 12,850 yuan/ton, and closed slightly higher. In the day session, the bulls took profit after being blocked at the 12,900 yuan/ton mark, and the price dropped to around 12,840 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the sentiment of spot price quotations warmed up, market inquiries became more active, and the trading situation improved. Approaching the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", coupled with the increase in the tender prices of Qingshan's nickel - iron and chrome - iron, market confidence gradually recovered, and the stainless - steel price generally showed a strong - running pattern. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,125 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 310 to 460 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 5.00 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - Approaching the consumption peak season, the stainless - steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].
铝锭社会库存开始去库
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 05:30
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the industry is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The decline in aluminum ingot inventory indicates a more limited downward adjustment of aluminum prices. In the long - term supply - constrained context, high industry profits do not restrict price increases. Attention should be paid to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected actual consumption during the peak season [7]. - For alumina, the domestic spot market is sluggish with slightly falling prices, and the import window is not open. The increase in warehouse receipt inventory and the easing of supply make it more difficult to squeeze positions. With the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the situation of tight supply in the south and loose supply in the north will continue. The focus is on market tendering [7][8]. - For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can still be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,680 yuan/ton, with a change of 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton. - Central Plains A00 aluminum price is 20,580 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 80 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is - 25 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,570 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,660 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,530 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,523 lots, and the open interest was 233,902 lots [3]. Inventory - As of August 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 596,000 tons, with a change of - 1,100 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory was 59,890 tons, with a change of - 3,048 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, with no change [3]. Alumina Spot Price - On August 21, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,205 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [3]. Alumina Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3,150 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,124 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The highest price was 3,179 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,116 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 326,961 lots, and the open interest was 185,979 lots [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 21, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 52,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,300 tons [5]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4 yuan/ton [6] 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly output of aluminum rods has been rising from a low level for a month. The social inventory of aluminum rods reached its peak in mid - July, then fluctuated, and started to decline in early August. The aluminum ingot inventory declined on Thursday and is expected to enter the destocking cycle. The micro - data shows a clear transition from the off - season to the peak season [7]. Alumina - The domestic spot market is inactive with slightly falling prices, while the overseas market is relatively active, but the import window is not open. The warehouse receipt inventory has increased to 76,000 tons. With the easing of supply, it is more difficult to squeeze positions. Due to the expected oversupply and high inventory, the price of bauxite is difficult to rise [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The spread between AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 450 yuan/ton. Consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9] 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [10] - Arbitrage: Long - short spread arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [10]
中信建投:消费旺季特征开始显现 能源金属价格基本面支撑强
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the characteristics of the consumption peak season are beginning to emerge, with strong fundamental support for energy metal prices [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season is approaching, leading to a gradual recovery in downstream demand [1] - Market activity has significantly improved, with previously circulating low-priced goods being rapidly consumed [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Prices for rare earths and cobalt are steadily increasing [1] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged significantly due to supply disruptions in Jiangxi [1]
中信建投:消费旺季特征开始显现,能源金属价格基本面支撑愈强
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 00:08
Group 1 - The upcoming consumption peak season in September and October is expected to boost downstream demand and significantly revive market activity [1] - The rapid digestion of previously circulating low-priced goods has led to a steady increase in prices for rare earths and cobalt, while lithium carbonate prices have surged due to supply disruptions in Jiangxi [1] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium and neodymium, have been rising continuously as major manufacturers intensify bidding and some magnetic material companies extend production schedules to mid-October [1] Group 2 - Cobalt imports saw a significant decline in June, and current smelter operating rates are continuously being adjusted downwards, with some production cuts anticipated [1] - It is expected that cobalt prices will receive strong support towards the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4 due to low raw material inventory levels at smelters [1] - Lithium prices are likely to rise due to upstream mine production cuts and a strong expectation of increased downstream demand, making price declines difficult [1]
有色金属日报-20250820
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 11:29
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ななな [1] - Alumina: な☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 [1] - Zinc: ななな [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ななな [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall copper market is still cautiously assessing economic growth risks and paying attention to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting this week. Hold short positions in Shanghai copper above 79,000 [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year [3]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with supply surplus gradually emerging, and it will be in a weak and volatile state [3]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to rebound under pressure. In the short - term, it will stop falling and fluctuate, and in the medium - term, the idea of short - selling on rebounds is maintained [4]. - For nickel, it is in the middle and later stages of the rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [7]. - Shanghai tin has a tight fundamental situation, but is also affected by demand concerns. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [8]. - The lithium carbonate futures price shows a strong trend, and it is expected to fluctuate. Risk control should be done well [9]. - The industrial silicon futures price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be a callback risk if the policy expectation falls later [10]. - The polysilicon futures market is in a volatile adjustment situation where "policy logic is more important than fundamental logic" [11]. Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuated on Wednesday, and the short positions above 79,000 in the main contract are held. The physical copper price in Shanghai is 78,770 yuan with a premium of 190 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference is within 1,000 yuan. The US government included hundreds of end - products with high steel and aluminum content in the 50% tariff list [2]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated, and the spot in East China was at par. The downstream start - up is stable, and the peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The alumina supply surplus is emerging, and the inventory and warehouse receipts are rising [3]. Zinc - In July, the import of zinc concentrates increased by 51.9% month - on - month to 501,400 physical tons, while the import of refined zinc decreased by 50.35% month - on - month to 17,900 tons. The short - term zinc price stops falling and fluctuates, and the medium - term is short - sold on rebounds [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is in the middle and later stages of the rebound, and short positions should be actively entered. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for 6 consecutive times, but the downstream acceptance of high - price stainless steel is poor, and the supply is expected to increase [7]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with reduced positions. The fundamentals are tight, with a decrease in domestic tin concentrate imports in July and low - level customs clearance of Myanmar ore. The short - term long positions are held based on the MA60 moving average [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is volatile. The market is focused on the expectation after the shutdown of sub - standard enterprises for the 930 deadline. The fundamentals have limited guidance on the price [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. The market sentiment cooled after the photovoltaic conference, but there is still a policy support expectation. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and the price in Xinjiang has decreased [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price fluctuates. The market is in a situation where "policy logic is more important than fundamental logic", with a resistance level at the previous high of 53,000 yuan/ton and a support level at about 48,000 yuan/ton [11].
中信期货晨报:国内商品期货涨跌参半,新能源材料涨幅居前-20250819
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 13:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].
山金期货周度行情分析交流观点汇总
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 01:01
Macro Overview - In July, China's CPI and PPI data showed slight month-on-month improvement, while investment, consumption, exports, and credit data were weaker than expected. The central bank's monetary policy report emphasizes promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration, indicating continued expectations for policy easing [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains high expectations for a rate cut in September, supporting overall market risk appetite [1] Steel and Construction Materials - The market is currently in a clear consumption off-season, with MySteel reporting a decrease in rebar production and demand, leading to an increase in both factory and social inventories for two consecutive weeks [1] - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel mills was 2.407 million tons, a slight increase of 0.4 thousand tons week-on-week, while the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased but remains relatively high [1] - As the consumption peak season approaches, production and apparent demand are expected to rise, leading to a decrease in inventories [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - For copper, global total inventory increased slightly by about 0.17 million tons, while domestic social inventory decreased to 125.6 thousand tons, remaining low for the same period. The processing fee for copper concentrate rose to -37.67 USD/ton, indicating a slight easing in supply tightness [2] - The overall judgment indicates marginal improvement in fundamentals, with domestic inventory reduction supporting spot prices, but macro uncertainties remain, leading to price fluctuations in the range of 77,000 to 81,000 RMB/ton [2] Lithium Carbonate - With the suspension of mining by Yichun Times, lithium carbonate prices have strengthened, and there are expectations of long-term production halts for downstream smelting enterprises after depleting their rights and inventory mines [3] - In August, downstream production demand improved significantly, with lithium iron phosphate increasing by 8.8% and ternary batteries by 9.2%, raising concerns about raw material stocking for September [3] - The overall judgment suggests that supply disruptions combined with demand improvements will maintain a strong price trend for lithium [3] Energy and Chemicals - The energy sector showed divergence, with international crude oil prices fluctuating weakly and chemicals experiencing wide fluctuations. The meeting between Trump and Putin did not result in agreements, but eased tensions, with no new sanctions on Russia expected in the short term [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, indicating a global oil surplus. The IEA report predicts a significant oversupply in the oil market by 2026, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [4] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced weak fluctuations, primarily due to a decline in safe-haven demand and the expectation of phased trade agreements. U.S. inflation data remains under pressure, with July PPI rising by 0.9%, the largest month-on-month increase in three years [5] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged from around 40% to nearly 90%, with projections for three rate cuts within the year [5] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are anticipated, with long-term economic recession risks potentially driving a shift towards rate cuts and a restructuring of the global monetary system [5]