Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina futures are expected to be short - term bullish and oscillatory, targeting the key resistance level of 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, the expected continuous release of supply will cap the price. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [14][135]. - Shanghai Aluminium (SHFE Aluminium) is expected to oscillate within the price range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The current industrial fundamentals mainly support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [15][136]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate, restricted by cost support and weak demand [15][136]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Market Overview - **Macro**: Trump announced on July 9 that a 50% tariff would be imposed on all imported copper starting from August 1. Also, on July 7, he declared tariffs on imported products from 14 countries starting from August 1 and postponed the implementation of the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1 [8]. - **Spot**: As of July 11, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,142.39 yuan/ton, up 26.64 yuan/ton from July 4. As of July 4, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from June 27 [8]. - **Supply**: As of July 10, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 79.92%, down 0.05% from the previous week. China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [8]. - **Demand**: As of July 3, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.6%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The operating rates of the aluminum plate and strip and aluminum cable sectors decreased, while others remained stable [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,850 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from July 3. As of July 9, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,514 yuan/ton, up about 44 yuan/ton from July 3, mainly due to the increase in alumina price. The average industry profit has narrowed to about 4,145 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 466,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from July 3. The aluminum rod inventory was 160,000 tons, up 6,500 tons from July 3 [10]. - **Overall Market Performance**: This week, alumina, SHFE Aluminium, and aluminum alloy all showed a bullish and oscillatory trend [13]. 2. Alumina Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Spot - The average domestic alumina spot price as of July 11 was 3,142.39 yuan/ton, up 26.64 yuan/ton from July 4. Tightening spot circulation and spot discount transactions led to the rebound of the average spot price [27]. 2.1 Supply - As of July 10, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 79.92%, down 0.05% from the previous week. There is an expectation of future supply surplus due to capacity restart and new capacity release [31]. 2.1 Import and Export - As of July 10, the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton, up nearly 5 US dollars/ton from July 3. The alumina import and export windows are both closed [33]. 2.1 Cost and Profit - As of July 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,850 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from July 3. The average industry profit has expanded to about 284 yuan/ton [36]. 2.1 Inventory - As of July 10, the alumina port inventory was 26,000 tons, down 17,000 tons from the previous week, remaining at a low level in the past four years. In May 2025, China's alumina imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [40]. 3. Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Cost - As of July 11, the pit - mouth coal price in Ordos decreased slightly, while those in Yulin, Datong, and the FOB coal price at Qinhuangdao Port increased. The single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in July dropped to about 0.38 yuan/kWh. The pre - baked anode price in major production areas remained stable this week [48][52]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - As of July 9, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,514 yuan/ton, up about 44 yuan/ton from July 3. The average industry profit has narrowed to about 4,145 yuan/ton [57]. 2.3 Supply - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. As of the end of June, the operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity was 96%, unchanged from the previous month and 0.32% higher than the same period last year [59]. 2.4 Spot - As of July 11, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 20,790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from July 4 [62]. 2.6 Demand - As of July 3, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.6%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in June was 40.1%, remaining below the boom - bust line and down 8.8% from May [69]. 2.7 Inventory - As of July 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 466,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from July 3. The aluminum rod inventory was 160,000 tons, up 6,500 tons from July 3. The low inventory of aluminum ingots still supports the price, but the support may weaken during the off - season [73]. 2.8 Futures Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,485 tons, up 4,095 tons from July 4. From July 4 to July 10, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 38,750 tons to 395,725 tons [77]. 2.9 Import and Export - The import profit window for aluminum ingots is closed. In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year, while imports increased year - on - year [79][84]. 2.11 Terminal - The real estate market is slowly recovering. From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 238,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1% compared with the same period in July last year. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market were 135,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21% [88][90]. 4. Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis 4.1 Raw Materials - The price of scrap aluminum has been high. The aluminum scrap - refined aluminum price difference shows certain characteristics [96][98]. 4.2 ADC12 Cost and Profit - The cost of ADC12 aluminum alloy has increased, and the profit situation is affected [100][101]. 4.3 ADC12 Spot Price - The average price of ADC12 shows certain trends, and there are differences in prices in different regions [103][106]. 4.4 Overseas ADC12 Price and Import Profit - The overseas ADC12 price and import profit situation have changed [108][111]. 4.5 Supply - The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy have certain characteristics [113][115]. 4.6 Demand - The demand for cast aluminum alloy has obvious seasonality, and the automotive industry is the main demand end [117][120]. 4.7 Inventory - The inventory of aluminum alloy shows certain trends [128]. 4.8 Supply - Demand Balance - The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy shows certain characteristics [130][131]. 3. Future Outlook - **Alumina**: In the short term, alumina futures are expected to be bullish and oscillatory, targeting 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, the expected increase in supply will cap the price. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [135]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE Aluminium is expected to oscillate within the range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The current industrial fundamentals mainly support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [136]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate, restricted by cost support and weak demand [136].

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Amid the traditional consumption off - season in China, the total global electrolytic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, due to the US imposing tariffs on imported copper leading to inter - market arbitrage trading and disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly test long positions on the main contract. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,620, up 350 from the previous day; trading volume was 61,263 hands, down 14,051; open interest was 207,382 hands, up 2,876; inventory was 19,109 tons, down 2,573. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 79,795, down 90 [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,665, down 119; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 102,500. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 51.31, down 28.49; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 10.76, down 16.61. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.2380, up 0.14 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.51, up 0.37; the total inventory was 221,788, up 834 [2]. Important Information - **Macro**: The US Senate - version "bill" was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with the fiscal deficit expected to expand by over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not significantly affected consumption. The US ADP employment number in August was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected interest - rate cut time is still September/October/December [3][4]. - **Upstream**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The departure (arrival) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) has decreased (increased). High - quality European scrap copper exports are restricted, and due to Sino - US trade disputes, traders are reluctant to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may increase the economic viability of scrap copper, and the scrap copper import window is open. Some copper smelters are affected by supply shortages and have stopped production. Domestic electrolytic copper production in July may increase month - on - month, while imports may be restricted, and the total inventory has increased [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper processing enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July. The capacity utilization rate of various copper product enterprises has generally declined month - on - month. Affected by Sino - US tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline, except for copper foil whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Company News - Northern Copper Industry (000737) stated that its produced rolled copper foil is an upstream product of the PCB business chain, with a current production capacity of 5,000 tons per year [2]. - The Indonesian Minister of the Interior requested the relaxation of the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International due to its impact on the local economy [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices showed a reverse V - shaped trend this week. With the divergence between ADP and non - farm payroll data, the overall interest - rate cut expectation fluctuated. There may be a moderate inventory build - up from July to August, and copper prices are expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season [1]. - Aluminum supply increased slightly, with imports from January to May contributing to the growth. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. Pay attention to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the strategy is to maintain a short - position and hold long domestic - short overseas positions [4]. - Lead prices rose moderately this week. Supply - side issues persist, demand is still weak overall, and prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [9]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the Myanmar situation and domestic production cuts, demand is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [11]. - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline in July due to major company cut - backs. If production doesn't recover soon, the market is expected to oscillate [15]. - Lithium carbonate prices rose due to policy sentiment. In the short - term, demand is weak, supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are likely to oscillate weakly [16]. - Nickel supply is high, demand is weak, and it's advisable to continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [18]. - Stainless steel supply has seen partial production cuts, demand is mainly for essential needs, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - This week, copper prices had a reverse V - shaped trend. Macro factors included the divergence between ADP and non - farm payroll data and the implementation of the "Big Beautiful" bill. Fundamentally, domestic inventory increased, and consumption was suppressed. There may be a moderate inventory build - up from July to August, and copper prices are expected to adjust in the third - quarter off - season [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. Short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1] Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. Supply is expected to increase as new capacity comes online and some smelters resume production after maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak both domestically and overseas. The strategy is to maintain a short - position and hold long domestic - short overseas positions [4] Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. Supply - side issues such as low scrap battery supply and high - cost raw materials persist. Demand is still weak overall, mainly for essential needs. Prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [9] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and domestic production cuts. Demand is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [11] Industrial Silicon - In July, production is expected to decline due to major company cut - backs. If production doesn't recover soon, the market is expected to oscillate. The market expectation has shifted from inventory build - up to inventory reduction [15] Lithium Carbonate - This week, prices rose due to policy sentiment. In the short - term, demand is weak, supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are likely to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of major projects [16] Nickel - Supply is high as pure nickel production remains at a high level and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak, and it's advisable to continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [18] Stainless Steel - Supply has seen partial production cuts since late May. Demand is mainly for essential needs. Cost is stable, and inventory has slightly increased. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and related products, provides short - and medium - term trend judgments and investment strategies based on factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and macro - environment. It recommends short - selling strategies for some metals like tin and aluminum, and suggests different trading directions according to the specific situation of each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment and macro - factors**: After the "Big Beautiful" bill was signed, market attention shifted to tariffs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in late July is considered low, and the US dollar index rebounded. The US labor market is generally stable [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: It is in the consumption off - season. SMM social inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 142,900 tons, and the copper product start - up rates declined. Except for stable power grid demand, the demand for home appliances and motors decreased significantly. The processing fee has bottomed out but improved little. The copper output in June decreased slightly, and the refined copper output is expected to increase in July [1]. - **Overseas news**: Chile's copper output in May reached the highest this year, with a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The Cobre Panama mine has shipped over 33,000 tons of copper concentrate after easing relations with the government [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai copper price was blocked at 81,000 yuan. In the medium - and long - term, it is recommended to focus on short - selling at high levels. In the short - term, the Shanghai copper main contract will first fill the gap at 78,900 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina situation**: The transaction of Guinea bauxite is deadlocked, and the price is stable at $75 per ton. The operating capacity of alumina increased by 400,000 tons to 9.355 million tons, and the total industry inventory increased slightly. The futures - spot price of alumina increased, and the futures month - spread widened [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at 4.39 - 4.4 million tons, with no expected capacity changes in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil all face challenges in demand [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased. The spot price in some regions decreased, and the aluminum rod processing fee in South China remained at a very low level [1]. - **Trend**: There is inventory accumulation, weak downstream start - up, and the spot price turned to a discount. The high position of the Shanghai aluminum index indicates large market differences. Attention should be paid to whether long - positions will reduce their positions [1]. Zinc - **Market trend**: The zinc price rebounded but did not break through the previous high, showing a weak trend. The import window remained closed [1]. - **Supply**: LME inventory continued to decline, mainly due to imports to China. The TC continued to rise, and new smelting capacities contributed to the increase. Some smelters increased or resumed production, while others reduced or suspended production. The social inventory increased, indicating a possible inventory inflection point [1]. - **Consumption**: It is in the off - season. The "Big and Beautiful" bill and US economic data affected the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Both domestic and foreign demand are under pressure, and the consumption negative feedback dragged down the zinc price [1]. - **Trend**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the strategy of short - selling on rebounds remains unchanged [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The London lead price was driven up by external funds, which also pulled up the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead price stabilized above 17,000 yuan [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The supply of lead concentrates remains tight. The TC of domestic and imported ores decreased. The production of primary lead increased overall, and some refineries actively shipped. The refined - scrap lead price difference remained low. The total supply of lead ingots increased year - on - year, and the proportion of primary lead production increased [1]. - **Consumption**: LME lead inventory decreased, and overseas consumption was weak. The domestic consumption is in the transition period between off - season and peak season. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased, but the downstream was afraid of high prices, and the social inventory increased [1]. - **Trend**: Consumption is advanced, and the marginal increase in demand is affected by US tariffs. The difference between peak and off - seasons is gradually blurred. Long - positions can be held with 17,000 yuan as the support, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 17,800 yuan [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded, and the market was active. The Shanghai stainless steel performance was slightly weaker [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The "anti - involution" theme has fermented, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the procurement intention is low [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of different nickel products varies. The change in the Indonesian nickel ore quota period affected the market sentiment. The upstream price support weakened. The nickel iron inventory increased, the pure nickel inventory decreased, and the stainless steel inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai nickel is still in a short - selling trend, and short - positions should be held [1]. Tin - **Market trend**: The domestic and overseas tin prices were blocked at 270,000 yuan and $34,000 respectively, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The previous rise of the tin price was mainly driven by funds [1]. - **Supply**: The geopolitical risk between the DRC and Rwanda decreased. The domestic concentrate processing fee remained low, and the resumption of supply from mines is expected to be delayed until August. The output in July may increase slightly or remain flat. The Malaysian smelter resumed production, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Consumption**: After entering the delivery month, the domestic spot price increase was limited. The social inventory increased. The market is concerned about the impact of photovoltaic policies and UK tariffs on tin demand [1]. - **Trend**: The short - selling strategy remains unchanged. Hold the short - positions at the previous high of 268,000 - 272,000 yuan, and the tin price may fall back to 262,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated at a low level, trying to break through upwards, and the market divergence decreased [1]. - **Spot market**: The Shanghai electrolytic carbon spot price stabilized and increased by 2%. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in demand in July and some rigid procurement orders. The market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [1]. - **Macro and demand**: There is an expected increase in production in July, but the actual recovery needs to be observed. The market demand is divided, with a slight decline in power battery orders and good performance in energy storage demand [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory continued to rise. The smelter inventory decreased slightly, the downstream inventory decreased slightly, and the trader inventory increased. The price of Australian ore rebounded, and the mid - stream production decreased slightly [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price rebounded. With high inventory and rising ore prices, there is still room for rebound under the influence of the "anti - involution" theme [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures price fluctuated between 7,700 - 8,200 yuan per ton, and the spot price increased by 450 yuan per ton [1]. - **Supply**: The start - up in Xinjiang decreased significantly, while some enterprises in Yunnan resumed production in the wet season, but the electricity price is higher than that in Sichuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The de - stocking rhythm did not continue, and the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The "anti - involution" of polysilicon boosted the market, and the demand from the organic silicon industry provided support [1]. - **Trend**: The silicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range due to the marginal improvement in demand and the unresolved supply pressure [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price center of polysilicon moved up significantly, mainly due to the emphasis on "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry [1]. - **Supply**: With the arrival of the wet season in the southwest, leading enterprises may increase production, and the total output is expected to exceed 100,000 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 272,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts increased slightly [1]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer price continued to decline, the battery sector relied on export orders, the component new orders were insufficient, and the terminal procurement decreased due to policy transition [1]. - **Trend**: The "anti - involution" expectation has not been fully digested, and the theme still has room for development [1]. Recommended Strategies - Short - sell Shanghai tin above 270,000 yuan. In the long - term, the fundamental trend will suppress the high tin price [1]. - Short - sell Shanghai aluminum on rallies. The high open interest may lead to a market reversal, and short - selling can be considered due to weak downstream demand [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7] Core Views - The further rise of aluminum prices requires the resonance of macro - improvement and strong micro - consumption. In the current off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, with a small accumulation expected in July. Long - term attention should be paid to the price increase driven by stronger - than - expected consumption under the background of supply constraints [4]. - For alumina, the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [6]. - For aluminum alloy, it is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 114,240 lots and a position of 281,092 lots. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 474,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 356,975 tons, up 350 tons from the previous day [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot market transaction premium is still falling, and social inventory shows signs of accumulation. The supply of the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited by the production capacity ceiling, and the industry profit is rich. The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the short term, beware of price drops due to inventory accumulation; in the long term, pay attention to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected consumption [4]. Alumina - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,080 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,080 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price was 361.6 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract closed at 3,026 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 336,450 lots and a position of 279,051 lots. The alumina warehouse receipt was 21,000 tons [2][3]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side remains stable, and the new project of Guangtou is about to be put into production. The supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [5][6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 15,400 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of aluminum alloy was 108,800 tons, up 2,100 tons week - on - week [3]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. The cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating [8] Core Views - Steel: The market has strong speculative sentiment, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. Steel is entering the off - season, with no obvious changes in fundamentals and slightly better de - stocking than seasonal expectations. The inventory of rebar is gradually decreasing, and the plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient due to price advantages, and the price is oscillating at the bottom [1]. - Iron Ore: Affected by market sentiment, the price is oscillating upwards. The overall supply is increasing, and iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market sentiment is positive, and the prices are rebounding. For coke, after multiple price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: With the increase in downstream demand, the price is oscillating upwards. Some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the long term, the supply is still abundant [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The rebar futures contract closed at 3065 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. The market speculative atmosphere is strong, and the futures trading volume has increased. The spot price has risen, and the national building materials trading volume was 12500 tons yesterday [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Commodity futures are generally rising, and steel is entering the off - season. The fundamentals are stable, and de - stocking is slightly better than expected. Rebar inventory is decreasing, and the plate has strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and demand changes in the off - season [1]. - Strategy: Neutral for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Affected by market sentiment, the futures price is oscillating upwards. The price of imported iron ore has risen slightly, and the trading volume of main ports was 1.06 million tons yesterday, a 0.19% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of forward - looking spot was 1.03 million tons, a 33.12% decrease [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival volume has decreased, but the overall supply is increasing. Iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, and the basis discount has been repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the iron - making water production in the off - season and industrial policies [3]. - Strategy: Oscillating for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating upwards. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1442 yuan/ton, a 3.15% increase; the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 843.5 yuan/ton, a 3.18% increase. The trading atmosphere of imported coal has warmed up [5]. - Logic and Views: For coke, after price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The price is rebounding due to improved market sentiment [6]. - Strategy: Oscillating for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and the supply and output have increased. With the increase in high - temperature days, traders' bullish sentiment may persist, and some stocking demand will be released. The price in the production area fluctuates within 5 - 10 yuan. At ports, the inventory is decreasing slightly, the market sentiment is positive, and the transaction price has increased, but high - price transactions are limited. The imported coal market is stable, with high - cost - performance of medium - and low - calorie coal, and active domestic bidding and restocking [8]. - Demand and Logic: In July, some coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the short term, the price is rising slightly. In the long term, the supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. - Strategy: No specific strategy [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as cautious bullishness, short - selling, and range - bound trading based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, while the demand from the aluminum product industry weakens. With a favorable macro - environment but potential downward risks in the fundamentals, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed at 2,985 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day. The alumina plants' production is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also stable. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 contract of zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [2]. - **Lead**: The 2507 contract of lead closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The futures price is expected to trade in a wide range [2][3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the near - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract of polysilicon closed at 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the futures premium has narrowed. It is recommended to exit the single - side position and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 710.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral in the short - term, but there is an over - supply situation in the medium - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract, and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of coking coal are relatively loose, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean market lacks new drivers. The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state, and the domestic soybean meal follows the international cost. The focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is falling. The supply and demand of corn are tightening, and it is expected that the futures price will trade with a bullish bias [6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed at 5,716 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated, and the domestic cotton futures price is bullish. The sown area of US cotton has decreased, while the domestic sown area is higher than expected. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is weak. The supply is decreasing marginally but still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is increasing. The short - term market is in a weak seasonal stage, and it is necessary to pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract of eggs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is low. The futures price is expected to trade in a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be bullish, but the medium - term price may decline [7]. - **Apples**: The futures price of apples is affected by the early - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving marginally. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [8][9]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract of PVC closed at 4,834 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,950 [9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is stable, and the PTA supply is decreasing in the short - term. The polyester demand is mixed. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, look for positive spread opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short - sell the processing margin in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of rubber closed at 14,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The raw material price is falling, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term market is range - bound. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and hold positive spreads in RU - NR [9]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract of glass closed at 980 yuan/ton, down 3.7%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9][10]. - **PP**: The PP main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a high level, and the demand is mixed. The market is in a balanced state. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is in a range - bound state. The short - term demand is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract declined slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is in a bottom - range trading state. It is recommended to hedge and sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 [11].

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated within a range, first declining and then rising, with a slight overall increase. In the future, geopolitical conflicts will continue to cause the rubber price to fluctuate repeatedly. Although the supply side is affected by weather and boosts the rubber price, the market has entered the off - season of consumption, and the overall supply and demand of rubber still present a relatively loose pattern. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound movement in the short term. Key factors to focus on include the situation of the Israel - Iran conflict, weather disturbances in major rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, the progress of the zero - tariff policy, the latest progress of the EU anti - dumping investigation, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [8][83] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, fluctuated between 13,640 - 14,165 yuan/ton. As of the close on the afternoon of June 27, 2025, it closed at 14,045 yuan/ton, rising 145 points or 1.04% for the week [13] - **Spot Price**: As of June 27, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,280 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18][20] - **Basis and Spread**: Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis slightly expanded. As of June 27, 2025, the basis was maintained at 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [24] Important Market Information - **International Events**: On June 23, Iran announced a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which led to a nearly 9% drop in international oil prices and a rise in the US stock market. Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed is in a favorable position and can wait patiently, but does not rule out the possibility of an early interest rate cut. The core PCE price index in May increased by 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding market expectations [27] - **US Economic Data**: In June, the preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI remained stable at 52, the consumer confidence index dropped by 5.4 points to 93, the first - quarter real GDP final value decreased by 0.5% annually and quarter - on - quarter, and the initial jobless claims last week decreased by 10,000 to 236,000 [28] - **Eurozone Economic Data**: The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in June was 50.2, lower than expected. Germany's composite PMI rose to 50.4, while France's dropped to 48.5 [29] - **Automobile Industry**: In May, the UK's automobile exports to the US decreased by 55.4% year - on - year, and the automobile production decreased by 32.8% year - on - year to 49,810 vehicles, the lowest monthly output in 76 years. From January to May, China's automobile production and sales increased by over 10% year - on - year, and the export of new energy vehicles increased by 64.6% year - on - year [29][32] Supply - side Situation - **Natural Rubber Production**: As of April 30, 2025, the production in Vietnam's main producing areas increased significantly compared with the previous month, while the production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. Thailand's production decreased significantly. The total production of major natural - rubber - producing countries in April 2025 was 505,200 tons, with a slight increase from the previous month [39] - **Synthetic Rubber Production**: As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly production of synthetic rubber was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative production was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [43][47] - **Import of New Pneumatic Rubber Tires**: As of May 31, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 9,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [50] Demand - side Situation - **Tire Enterprise Operating Rate**: As of June 26, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.05%, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.64%, an increase of 0.16% from the previous week [53] - **Automobile and Tire Production and Sales**: As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% and a month - on - month increase of 1.14%. The monthly sales volume was 2.6863 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.15% and a month - on - month increase of 3.74%. The monthly sales volume of heavy trucks was 88,769 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.59% and a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The monthly output of Chinese tire casings was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 61.82 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 7.17% [57][60][65][68][73] Inventory - side Situation - As of June 27, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 191,960 tons, a decrease of 880 tons from the previous week. As of June 22, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.286 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons or 0.6%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 780,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 506,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39%. The combined inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in the Qingdao area was 617,300 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons or 1.70% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 81,200 tons, a decrease of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 536,100 tons, an increase of 2.51% [80] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Currently, the global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period. Recently, tapping work in major domestic and foreign producing areas has been affected by weather, resulting in limited raw material output and relatively short supply. However, there is a strong expectation of increased supply in the future, and the supply side is under pressure. In May 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [82] - **Demand Side**: Last week, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The finished product inventory was at a historical high, and downstream factories made purchases as needed. In the terminal automobile market, from January to May, the production and sales volume of national automobiles and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased slightly year - on - year. In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire export volume was 3.4042 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.18% [82] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise slightly [82] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound movement this week. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider range trading [9][84]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the financial futures and options market, both stock index futures and treasury bond futures are expected to be strong in the short and medium - term. In the commodity futures and options market, different metals and energy materials, as well as agricultural products, have their own unique supply - demand and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [1] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2507 long positions [1] - **Core logic**: Positive sentiment in the equity market due to Sino - US communication and policy support, and the potential rise of the science and technology sector [1] Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [2] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [2] - **Reference strategy**: Hold T2509 or TL2509 long positions [3] - **Core logic**: Weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy expectations, and the central bank's continued net investment affects the capital market [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials - **Copper** - **Day - to - day view**: Price range from 79,200 to 81,000 [4] - **Medium - term view**: Price range from 60,000 to 90,000 [4] - **Reference strategy**: Adopt an oscillating and slightly upward trading idea, buy call options [4] - **Core logic**: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US, supply shortages, and changes in international demand and inventory levels affect copper prices [4] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 8,000 to 8,100 [5] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure, price range from 7,000 to 9,000 [5] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short SI2508 - C - 9000 until expiration, short futures on rallies [5] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [5] - **Polysilicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 33,000 to 35,000 [7] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a low level, price range from 28,000 to 38,000 [7] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short PS2508 - C - 45000 until expiration [7] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [7] - **Aluminum** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 20,400 to 20,700 [9] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a high level, price range from 19,200 to 21,000 [9] - **Reference strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [9] - **Core logic**: Limited supply increase, low inventory, good performance in the automotive market, and the overall rise of non - ferrous metals [9] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 63,000 to 65,000 [11] - **Medium - term view**: Cost support weakens, prices decline steadily, price range from 56,000 to 68,000 [11] - **Reference strategy**: Short futures on rallies, sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core logic**: Low spot prices, large supply, and high inventory levels [11] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Day - to - day view**: Downward pressure weakens [14] - **Medium - term view**: Stop falling and stabilize [14] - **Reference strategy**: Exit the strategy of selling call options and buying put options on RB2510, sell out - of - the - money put options on rebar RB2510 [14] - **Core logic**: Potential relief of raw material inventory pressure and changes in supply and demand [14] Livestock, Poultry, and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias [17] - **Medium - term view**: Rebound temporarily and then maintain a weak trend [17] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [17] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply and demand, with supply remaining abundant and demand weak [17] - **Sugar** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate weakly [19] - **Medium - term view**: Rise first and then fall [19] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [19] - **Core logic**: Global supply surplus expectations and domestic supply - demand and import situations [19] - **Protein Meal** - **Day - to - day view**: Soybean meal 2509 oscillates in the range of [2,900, 3,000] [22] - **Medium - term view**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2,900, 3,100] [22] - **Reference strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850 [22] - **Core logic**: Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean and Canadian rapeseed growing areas, and changes in international and domestic soybean and rapeseed markets [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate within a range [25] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure [25] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short out - of - the - money call options on PG2508 [25] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply, demand, and cost factors [25] - **PVC** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [28] - **Medium - term view**: Limited upside potential [28] - **Reference strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on PVC [28] - **Core logic**: Changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory levels [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - During the consumption off - season, domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate with limited rebound height, and the basis may decline with the rebound of the futures price. Attention should be paid to the latest progress of Sino - US negotiations, domestic domestic demand policies and their implementation effects, waiting for new drivers [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on June 26 was 13665, up 40 (0.29%) from June 25 [3] - CF09 on June 26 was 13720, up 75 (0.55%) from June 25 [3] - CF09 - 01 spread on June 26 changed to 35 from 20 on June 25 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on June 26, the price was 14957, up 125 (0.84%) from June 25 [3] - In Henan on June 26, the price was 15050, up 78 (0.52%) from June 25 [3] - In Shandong on June 26, the price was 15023, up 70 (0.47%) from June 25 [3] - Xinjiang - main contract basis on June 26 was 1237, up 50 from June 25 [3] Domestic Cotton Yarn Futures - CY on June 26 was 20060, up (0.33%) from June 25 [3] Domestic Cotton Yarn Spot - C32S price index on June 26 was 20380, up 80 (0.39%) from June 25 [3] - CT (USD/磅) on June 26 was unchanged at 68.32 (0.00%) from June 25 [3] - The arrival price on June 26 was 77.40, up 0.7 (0.91%) from June 25 [3] US Cotton Spot - 1% quota pick - up price on June 26 was 13714, up 122 (0.90%) from June 25 [4] - Sliding - scale duty pick - up price on June 26 was 14423, up 76 (0.53%) from June 25 [4] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) on June 26 was 6395, up 25 from June 25 [4] - Yarn - cotton spread (spot) on June 26 was 709, down 46 from June 25 [4] - Domestic - foreign spread (spot) on June 26 was 1309, down 52 from June 25 [4]