消费淡季

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农林牧渔行业点评报告:消费逐步进入淡季,短期鸡价或有压力
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-06-23 06:26
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is entering a consumption off-season, leading to potential short-term pressure on chicken prices [5][15] - The supply of breeding chickens remains sufficient, with high inventory levels in the market [15][16] - The impact of avian influenza is mixed, with Brazil declaring an end to its outbreak while the U.S. continues to face challenges [16][19] Summary by Sections 1. Consumption Trends - White feather chicken prices remained stable in May 2025, with an average selling price of 7.41 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg month-on-month [15] - Yellow feather chicken prices weakened due to reduced holiday demand, with an average price of 10.63 yuan/kg in May, down 4.06% month-on-month [28] - Egg prices are expected to decline further in June due to weak terminal consumption and high supply pressure, with the wholesale price of eggs at 5.94 yuan/kg, down 15.14% month-on-month [35][36] 2. Breeding Chicken Sales and Prices - In May, the sales volume of white feather chicken chicks was 429 million, an increase of 0.16 million from the previous month [16] - The sales volume of yellow feather chicken chicks reached 6.57 million sets, up 10.98% month-on-month [28] - The average price of white feather chicken chicks was 3.07 yuan/chick, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.18 yuan/chick [39] 3. Financial Performance of Key Companies - Yisheng shares reported a sales volume of 56.61 million chicks in May, with a revenue of 174 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 23.05% [39][41] - Minhe shares saw a sales volume of 25.33 million chicks, with a revenue of 71 million yuan, up 4.10% month-on-month [43][45] - Xiaming shares experienced a decrease in sales volume to 23.25 million chicks, with a revenue of 101 million yuan, down 8.40% month-on-month [46] 4. Price Trends in Chicken Meat - The average price of white feather chicken meat decreased by 1.80% month-on-month, with sales revenue of 423 million yuan in May [47] - The average price of yellow feather chicken meat also saw a decline, with sales revenue of 249.5 million yuan [56][58] - The overall trend indicates a downward pressure on chicken meat prices due to seasonal factors and supply dynamics [5][15][28]
中辉有色观点-20250623
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 06:03
中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 特朗普周末卷入以伊大战,一改周五晚间的措辞,全球多方谴责,避险情绪或 | | 黄金 | 强势震荡 | 升温,上周欧洲央行连续降息、7 月 9 日对等关税或重起。未来中期短期不确 | | | | 定性仍然较多,长期全球秩序尚在重塑,黄金战略配置。【773-801】 | | | | 关注黄金价格波动对白银的影响。近期白银走高主要是缘自资金情绪,金银比 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 价目前回归正常区间,目前白银基本面变化不大,盘面关注 8700 支撑,考虑到 | | | | 白银的品种特性-快涨快跌,操作上做好仓位控制。【8700-8900】 | | | | 传统消费淡季深入,短期铜多单止盈兑现离场,全球经济受中东战乱和中美贸易摩 | | 铜 | 承压 | 擦影响预期偏弱,产业客户积极逢高布局卖出套保,锁定合理利润。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【77800,78800】 | | | | 需求淡季,国内锌库存累库,锌震荡回落,测试前低支撑,长期看,锌供增需 | | 锌 | 承压 | 弱,把握逢高空 ...
农产品日报:板块震荡运行,等待新的驱动-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 04:00
Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The cotton market is in a state of shock, with the domestic market having a tightening supply - demand expectation in the later part of this year, but the new - year planting area is increasing and the demand is in the off - season. The international market is affected by the USDA report and weather conditions, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the macro - environment [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle, with the 25/26 season's supply changing from shortage to surplus. Zhengzhou sugar is dragged down by the weak external market [5][6] - Pulp: The pulp market has a loose supply pattern, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [6][7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,525 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,775 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistan's exports: In May 2025, textile and clothing exports were 1.531 billion US dollars, down 1.75% year - on - year and up 25.42% month - on - month [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,658 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil's ports: As of the week of June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar was 76, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.8539 million tons, down 56,500 tons (1.94%) from the previous week [4] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,254 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian needles was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Imports: China's pulp imports in May 2025 were 3.016 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year [6] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - Macro: Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, but the macro - environment is still uncertain [2] - International: The USDA report adjusted down the global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, and the ending stocks decreased. The US cotton - growing areas have improved drought conditions [2] - Domestic: The commercial cotton inventory is accelerating the destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [2] Sugar - International: Although energy prices support the international sugar price, the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil, India and Thailand has put pressure on the price [5] - Domestic: The domestic sales data is good, but the supply pressure is increasing due to the weakening of the external market [6] Pulp - Supply: The long - term contract price of Arauco has been continuously lowered, and the domestic imports have increased. The port inventory is at a high level [7] - Demand: European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak. The papermaking industry is in the off - season [7] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the cotton price to fluctuate in a range in the short term [3] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral - to - bearish strategy, and focus on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [6] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the pulp price to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [7]
商品期货早班车-20250618
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 01:58
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to speculative capital pull - up and lack of fundamental support, it is advisable to consider long - term short positions or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, maintain a buy - on - dips approach for copper, expect aluminum prices to oscillate strongly and suggest light - position buy - on - dips, anticipate alumina prices to weaken and recommend selling on rallies, expect zinc prices to weaken and suggest selling on rallies, and for lead, suggest range - bound operations [2][3]. - In the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see for most products, with attempts to go long on螺纹 steel and焦煤 [4]. - For agricultural products, short - term soybean meal is expected to be strongly volatile, corn prices are expected to be strongly volatile, sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile, cotton requires waiting and seeing, palm oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, eggs and apples require waiting and seeing, and pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and for most, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long - term. For crude oil, it is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: International silver prices rose 2% on Tuesday, breaking through $37 per ounce, while gold continued to weaken. 43% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Mainly driven by speculative funds, lacking fundamental support. It is recommended to consider long - term short positions or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated. The global copper ore supply is tight, and Japan's JX Metals is considering production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.27%. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a "low - inventory + weak - demand" game state, and it is suggested to buy on dips with a light position [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the 2509 contract rose 0.28%. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.30%. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2507 contract fell 0.71%. It is recommended to operate within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the 09 contract fell. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias view before production increases and consider shorting on rebounds [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the 07 contract fell. If the warehouse receipt registration speed exceeds expectations, consider an inverse spread strategy between the 07 and far - month contracts [3]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the 2510 contract oscillated horizontally. Steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are marginally neutral - to - strong, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. In the short - term, US soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile, and domestic soybeans follow international cost trends [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed at 5668 yuan/ton. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. It is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil prices fell but remained strong. In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract corrected. Prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract oscillated narrowly. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract rose. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and consider selling call options above 4950 [8]. - **PTA**: Hold long positions in PX, and maintain the view of selling processing margins on rallies for PTA [8]. - **Rubber**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to go short above 14000 and hold spread positions [8][9]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options at 1250 [9]. - **PP**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: It is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Crude Oil**: It is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [9]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1400 [10].
有色金属周报(氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金):美联储9、12月降息预期概率有所升高,国内传统消费淡季特征渐趋显现-20250617
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 13:42
有色金属周报(氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金) 美联储9/12月降息预期概率有所升高 国内传统消费淡季特征渐趋显现 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年06月17日 宏源期货 研究所 金属研究团队 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472) 董晓妮(F0287405,Z0017234) 张蕾(F03086068,Z0019377) 氧化铝 山西多数矿和河南露天矿仍未复采,几内亚政府撤销部分企业采矿权或要求部分运行企业停产,广西 计划开展非法采矿和涉重金属污染倒查十年专项行动,使国产和澳洲(几内亚)铝土矿价格环比持平(上涨), 或使国内铝土矿6月生产(进口)量环比减少(减少)但难改供需预期偏松; 山东创源三期和广西华晟二期100与200万吨氧化铝产能已建成并部分投产,山西晋中100万吨氧化铝产 能节能增效改造项目2月底开工且建设工期14个月,广西防城港25年3月开始建设2条120万吨氧化铝产能且 总工期为8个月,或使中国氧化铝6月生产量环比增加,中国氧化铝日度平均完全生产成本为2880元/吨左 右; 南山铝业旗下印尼宾坦氧化铝三期项目100万吨产能5月上旬开启 试生产且预计25年实现满产(届时氧 化铝产 ...
日度策略参考-20250617
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 05:42
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]
瑞达期货棉花(纱)产业日报-20250612
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 08:55
本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-12 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 态,盈利空间也持续不佳,直接影响了企业对原材料的采购意愿,在原料采购策略上表现得格外谨慎,仅 根据实际生产需求补充库存。中美贸易关系缓和,市场对贸易前景乐观情绪提振价格短期震荡偏强,但是 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 消费淡季,去库存速度缓慢,上方空间或受限。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13520 | -20 棉纱 ...
瑞达期货棉花(纱)产业日报-20250611
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 08:52
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of Sino - US trade relations boosts market optimism about trade prospects, causing prices to be short - term volatile and slightly stronger. However, it is the consumption off - season in the textile industry, with slow inventory reduction and limited upside potential [2]. - The textile industry shows characteristics of the consumption off - season. New orders are poor, summer orders have limited growth, and most are short - term, small - scale orders. Some enterprises reduce shifts, and the overall operating rate is slowly decreasing. Some spinning mills are in a state of inventory accumulation, with poor profit margins, which affects their raw material procurement willingness [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,540 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,750 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 42,217 lots, down 4,474 lots; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 58 lots, down 123 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract positions are 545,791 lots, up 7,234 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions are 18,448 lots, up 2,365 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 10,794 sheets, down 21 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 2 sheets, unchanged [2]. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,784 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,656 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,899 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,389 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 23,776 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,516 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 833 thousand tons, down 31 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 60 thousand tons, down 10 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 120 thousand tons, down 10 thousand tons [2]. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 284 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 4152.6 thousand tons, down 687 thousand tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, up 0.14 days; the monthly inventory days of grey cloth are 32.54 days, up 1.37 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.72 billion meters, down 0.159 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1987 thousand tons, down 183.5 thousand tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,160,655.8 thousand US dollars, up 25,528.3 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,257,966.4 thousand US dollars, up 52,872.6 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.76%, up 1.09%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.77%, up 1.06% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.67%, down 3.36%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 12.69%, up 0.01% [2]. Industry News - As of June 6, 2025, the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3,209.2 thousand tons, down 128.7 thousand tons (a decrease of 3.86%) from last week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 2,303 thousand tons, down 108.2 thousand tons (a decrease of 4.49%) week - on - week; the commercial cotton in the inland area is 448.5 thousand tons, down 4.6 thousand tons (a decrease of 1.02%) week - on - week [2]. - As of the week of June 8, 2025, the US cotton sowing is 76% complete, 10% higher than the previous week, 3% lower than the same period last year, and 4% lower than the five - year average. The excellent - good rate is 49%, the same as the previous week and 7% lower than the same period last year. The US weather is generally favorable for crop growth [2].
金属行业周报:淡季影响逐渐深入,关注中美贸易谈判-20250610
BOHAI SECURITIES· 2025-06-10 09:34
Investment Ratings - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" while the non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [3] - Specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Shandong Gold (600547), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) are rated as "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with expectations of declining demand for construction materials and sheet steel, leading to a potential inventory accumulation cycle [1][18] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply at the mine level, but the overall demand remains weak during the off-season [1][41] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to domestic low inventory supporting prices, despite some downstream sectors showing signs of weakness [1][50] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and geopolitical factors [2][54] - The lithium market faces oversupply pressures, with significant inventory levels expected to keep prices weak [2][57] Industry Summaries Steel Industry - Demand has weakened, with a notable decrease in terminal procurement volumes, down 14.62% week-on-week and 6.41% year-on-year as of June 6 [19] - Steel production from major varieties was 8.8038 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.05% from the previous week [21] - The total steel inventory increased by 0.26% week-on-week, but decreased by 20.97% year-on-year [27] Copper Industry - The copper market is influenced by U.S.-China trade tensions, with the first meeting of trade negotiations expected to impact copper prices significantly [41] - As of June 6, LME copper prices were $9,800 per ton, reflecting a 1.79% increase from the previous week [48] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is facing pressure from rising costs due to higher alumina prices, while some downstream demand is weakening [50] - As of June 6, LME aluminum prices were $2,400 per ton, down 0.55% from the previous week [51] Gold Industry - Gold prices are supported by various macroeconomic factors, including rising U.S. debt and geopolitical tensions [2][54] - As of June 6, COMEX gold closed at $3,331 per ounce, up 0.54% from the previous week [54] Lithium Industry - The lithium market is characterized by significant inventory pressure, with prices expected to remain weak due to oversupply [57] - As of June 6, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices were 60,700 yuan per ton, down 1.30% from the previous week [58] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Prices for light rare earths have shown an increase, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide priced at 449,000 yuan per ton as of June 6, up 2.51% [68]
瑞达期货棉花(纱)产业日报-20250610
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 09:01
间或受限。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13520 | 25 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19725 | -15 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -37743 | -5128 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | 65 | -94 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 538557 | 96 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 16083 | 1669 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 10815 | -20 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 2 | 2 | | 现货市场 ...