Export Performance - In July, China's export year-on-year growth rate recorded 7.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, but the month-on-month growth rate is below the median of the past five years[3] - The rebound in export growth is primarily due to a lower base from the same period last year, while the month-on-month growth rate remains below the five-year median[6] - Exports to the US have decreased, but support from European recovery and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa has bolstered exports[7] Import Performance - China's import year-on-year growth rate in July exceeded expectations at 4.1%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month, with month-on-month growth significantly above the five-year average[3] - The increase in imports is driven by continuous domestic production expansion and a notable drop in commodity prices from June, stimulating higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials[6] - Specific imports such as copper saw significant increases, with copper ore rising by 33.1% and unwrought copper by 11.3%[16] Economic Outlook - Despite a downward trend in export centrality, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable, supported by European fiscal expansion and potential unexpected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4] - Risks include potential underperformance in domestic economic recovery, unexpected declines in demand from developed countries, and uncertainties in import-export policies[23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It suggests that using stock indices as long - term substitutes can bring certain excess returns and recommends buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. - For treasury bond futures, considering the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for T and TL contracts in the medium - to - long term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On August 6, A - share major indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.45% to 3633.99 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.64% to 11177.78 points; the ChiNext Index climbed by 0.66% to 2358.95 points; and the STAR 50 Index went up by 0.58% to 1059.76 points [2]. - Market trading volume was 1.7592 trillion yuan, an increase of 143.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Defense and military industry (+ 3.07%), machinery and equipment (+ 1.98%), and coal (+ 1.89%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (- 0.65%), commercial and retail (- 0.23%), and building materials (- 0.23%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3355, 246, and 1816 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 1.1 billion yuan, - 12.1 billion yuan, - 8.3 billion yuan, and 19.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of + 2.9 billion yuan, - 1.5 billion yuan, - 6.8 billion yuan, and + 5.3 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 98.71, 94.18, 16.49, and 1.22 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 10.9%, - 11.22%, - 3.04%, and - 0.33% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 31%, 12%, 30%, and 43% respectively [2]. - Detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts are presented in Table 1, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [4]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On August 6, most yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.396, down 1.2 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.557, down 0.6 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.644, down 0.22 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.988, up 0.19 bps [2]. - For the current active 2509 contracts, the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [2]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 138.5 billion yuan and withdrew 309 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan [2]. - Detailed performance data of various treasury bond futures contracts are presented in Table 2, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [6]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of various sectors is similar to the same period [9]. - Based on the comparison of domestic meso - level data with the same period in the past five years, the prosperity degree of manufacturing, real estate, social activities, infrastructure, and import - export sectors is analyzed, as shown in Figure 2 [10][11].

日本不断上升的政治与财政不确定性可能会对周四30年期国债招标需求造成压力。此次发债将成为市场 检验长期债券需求的一次重要测试，交易员预计本次拍卖结果将更为谨慎。此次招标恰逢周五自民党召 开全体会议，投资者正密切关注是否会出现政治重组及其伴随的财政影响。安盛投资管理高级固定收益 策略师Ryutaro Kimura表示："此次国债招标不太可能出现激进投标。如果石破茂无法获得自民党所属国 会议员的支持，市场对大规模财政扩张的担忧可能加剧，进而导致超长期收益率进一步上升。"此次招 标结果预计将在北京时间11:35公布，投资者将重点关注关键需求指标投标倍数，前次投标倍数为3.58， 高于过去12个月的平均水平。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank has decided to maintain interest rates, yet the euro has depreciated significantly against the dollar, primarily due to the market interpreting the recent US-EU tariff agreement as a major concession from the Eurozone, which could have a substantial negative impact on its economy [1] - The Eurozone's economic growth in the first quarter showed slight acceleration, driven by increased investment and net exports, with investment contributing 0.3 percentage points and net exports contributing 1.07 percentage points to GDP, a reversal from negative contributions in the previous year [2] - The German Federal Senate has passed a reform bill that exempts defense spending exceeding 1% of GDP from debt brake restrictions, marking a shift from cautious fiscal policy to active expansion, which is expected to support economic growth in Germany and the Eurozone [2] Group 2 - The Eurozone faces significant challenges in relying on fiscal expansion for economic growth due to structural low-growth traps and deteriorating external conditions, with weak domestic demand and high pressure on exports to the US [3] - The recent US tariff policy is expected to have a more severe impact on the Eurozone economy than previously anticipated, with the weighted average tariff rate on EU exports to the US projected to rise from approximately 1.5% to 15.2%, potentially reducing economic growth by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points over the next year [5] - Concerns over tariff impacts have led to capital outflows from the Eurozone, despite a narrowing of the interest rate differential between the US and Eurozone, which typically would support the euro's value [6][8]

日本央行：近期财政扩张的举措，尤其是美国和欧洲的举措，可能会推动全球经济复苏。 ...

美银策略部门上调了对日本股市的年终预测，认为关键的积极催化剂——美日贸易协议和国内财政扩张预期——已经到来。 据追风交易台消息，该机构近日将2025年底的东证指数（TOPIX）目标从2850点上调至3050点，日经225指数目标从40000点上调至43000点。截止发稿， 东证指数上涨0.37%至2919点，日经225指数微跌至40636点。 美银表示，此次上调基于以下几点：首先，美日贸易协议的达成显著降低了不确定性，尤其是对关税影响的担忧。其次，参议院选举后市场对政府扩大财 政支出的预期升温。最后，强劲的资金流入和大规模股票回购构成了有利的供需环境。美银同时将其估值模型中的预期市盈率（P/E）从之前的水平微调 至14.5倍。 美银认为，虽然短期内日本股市可能出现涨势放缓，但盈利预期见底与改善有望支撑年内"第二波"行情。与此同时，国内政局不确定性、美日5500亿美元 对美投资分歧、美方滞胀风险仍需警惕。 盈利见底，第二波行情可期 美银表示，当前日股的上涨模式是市盈率（P/E）的扩张速度超过了每股收益（EPS）的增长。这在历史上并不罕见。回顾2019年（美国贸易协议预期） 和2020年（疫情期间的财政货币刺激） ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, expecting growth rates of 3% and 3.1% respectively, which is an upward adjustment of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous forecast in April [1] Economic Growth Projections - The upward revision in global economic growth expectations is attributed to better-than-expected international trade, lower average effective tariff levels in the U.S., improved global financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in major economies [1] - The most significant upward adjustment in growth forecasts was for China, with the IMF raising its expected growth rate for this year by 0.8 percentage points compared to the April forecast [1] Factors Influencing China's Growth - The adjustment for China's economic growth is primarily due to stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and significant reductions in U.S.-China tariffs [1] - The IMF also raised its growth forecast for China in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a positive long-term outlook [1] - The strong export performance of China, particularly to regions outside the U.S., has offset the decline in exports to the U.S., contributing to the economic growth [1] - Fiscal policies supporting consumption have also played a role in driving China's economic growth [1] Recommendations for Policy - The IMF suggests that countries should promote clear and transparent trade frameworks to reduce policy-induced uncertainties [1] - Central banks are advised to carefully calibrate monetary policies based on specific national conditions to maintain price and financial stability amid ongoing trade tensions and changing tariffs [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the divergence between the Japanese stock market and the yen, highlighting that while the Nikkei 225 index has approached historical highs, the yen has depreciated significantly [3][9][71] - Since June, the Nikkei 225 has surged by 9.2%, with foreign capital inflows totaling $5.11 billion, while the yen has weakened by 2.4% during the same period [3][9][71] - The article notes that this divergence is not uncommon in Japan, as currency depreciation can improve corporate earnings, particularly for companies with significant overseas revenue [18][71] Group 2 - The article identifies low inflation expectations and a cooling of interest rate hike predictions as key factors contributing to the yen's weakness [32][72] - Japan's core CPI has been influenced more by imported factors, and inflation has consistently fallen short of expectations, leading to a reduction in market expectations for interest rate hikes from 0.7 times to 0.6 times per year [32][72] - The article also mentions that unsuccessful trade negotiations between the US and Japan, along with political turmoil from recent Senate elections, have exacerbated the yen's weakness [4][41][72] Group 3 - Following the recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in October have increased from 42.1% to 68.1% [5][51][72] - However, the article warns that insufficient inflation persistence may still hinder significant interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan [5][51][72] - The focus moving forward will be on the upcoming leadership election within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and potential fiscal expansion, which could lead to concerns about a "debt and currency double whammy" [58][72]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued to rise, with both industrial and agricultural products extending their rebound. The main reasons are the clarification of the external environment and the intensification of anti - involution policies, leading to an "anti - involution trading" in the market [3]. - In the overseas market, the US employment market continues to improve, but high - interest rates still suppress housing demand. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI has reached a new high, and the European Central Bank has paused rate cuts. The US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU has passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. - In the domestic market, the LPR remained unchanged in July, but there is a possibility of a decline in the second half of the year. Anti - involution policies are intensifying, causing a rise in the prices of black - series commodities and most industrial products. However, there is a short - term risk of over - heating market sentiment [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Impact Factors and Main Logic** - **Review**: Domestic commodities rose, driven by a clearer external environment and anti - involution policies [3]. - **Overseas**: The US employment market improved, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000. US existing - home sales decreased by 2.7% in June. The eurozone's July composite PMI reached 51. The US reached trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and the EU passed a counter - measure list [3]. - **Domestic**: The 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% in July, remaining unchanged. Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, but there is a short - term risk of over - heating sentiment [3]. - **Commodities Viewpoint**: Although market risk appetite has improved, attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - European negotiations. Market sentiment may gradually return to rationality under regulatory guidance [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Employment**: In the third week of July, the number of initial jobless claims dropped by 4,000 to 217,000, and the increase in continuing jobless claims slowed down [3]. - **US Housing Market**: In June, the annualized total of existing - home sales was 3.93 million, a 2.7% month - on - month decline, the largest in nearly a year [3][9]. - **Eurozone Economy**: The July composite PMI reached 51, a new 11 - month high. The European Central Bank paused rate cuts after 8 consecutive cuts since June 2024 [3][14]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **LPR**: The LPR remained unchanged in July, but there may be a decline in the second half of the year if economic downward pressure increases [3][22]. - **Market Situation**: Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, with black - series commodities and most industrial products rising in price [3]. - **Agricultural and Energy Sectors**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on the high - quality development of the pig industry, and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on coal mine production inspections [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The PTA开工率 was 80.69% on July 25, and the POY开工率 was 86.8% [36]. - **Automobile Sales**: Data shows the trends of manufacturer wholesale and retail sales and their year - on - year changes [39]. - **Commodity Prices**: The average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index, are presented [44].

Election Results - The ruling coalition (LDP + Komeito) failed to secure a majority, holding 122 seats, 3 seats short of the majority line of 125 seats[9] - The opposition parties, particularly the Democratic Party for the People, increased their seats from 9 to 22, and the Sanseito party grew from 2 to 15 seats[10] Political Implications - Japan's political landscape has shifted to a more balanced power structure, making legislative processes more challenging as the ruling coalition must collaborate with opposition parties[15] - Prime Minister Ishihara's control is weakened, with a public support rate dropping to 20.8%, the lowest in history[15] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The ruling coalition shows a conservative inclination towards fiscal expansion, while opposition parties advocate for more aggressive measures like consumption tax cuts and increased social welfare[16] - The likelihood of significant fiscal policy changes is limited, with potential progress expected in 2026[16] Monetary Policy Impact - The impact on monetary policy is expected to be minimal, with the Bank of Japan likely to maintain its current stance until uncertainties regarding inflation and tariffs are resolved[20] - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of Japan may resume interest rate hikes in early 2026[20] Market Reactions - The risk of fiscal expansion has been priced in, leading to a stabilization of Japanese government bonds and the yen[28] - The global trend towards fiscal expansion is reinforced, with developed markets like the US, Europe, and Japan signaling marginal changes in fiscal policy in 2025[28]