报告导读： 二季度我国经济总量仍然稳定，制造业仍有巨大的韧性和竞争力，不过供需关 系、量价关系等结构性问题仍然需要平衡。 在外部扰动下，二季度我国经济仍有韧性，增速高于年度目标，不过需求端仍需政策提振。 生产端持续保 持较高增速，高端制造和出口链表现强劲，但地产链偏弱；需求端消费和投资增速有小幅回落， 6 月餐饮 消费、基建投资、地产销售增速回落幅度较大。 总体来看，当前经济供需不平衡、通胀偏低等问题仍存，预计积极政策仍会发力。 下一阶段，一方面需通 过优化房地产政策、加大基建补短板、提振居民消费等措施扩大内需，推动供需形成良性循环，巩固复苏 基础。另一方面，也需要通过"反内卷"破解生产端产能过剩困局，减少无效供给、优化经济结构。 风险提示： 贸易局势不确定性加强，国内需求超预期回落。 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研究所依法设立 独立运营的唯 官方订阅号 其他机构或个人在微信平台上以国泰海通研究所名义注 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | 视听 内容 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 15 日 6 月经济：名义 GDP 增速边际放缓，关注股债双牛兑现 ——2025 年 6 月宏观数据解读 核心观点 我们认为，6 月经济回稳势头较好，二季度 GDP 实际增长 5.2%，供给端修复斜 率显著高于需求端，6 月规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 6.8%，量价总体延续 背离。据我们测算，二季度名义 GDP 增速较一季度放缓 0.7 个百分点至 3.9%左 右，价格因素或拖累企业盈利改善的斜率。整体来看，二季度经济相较一季度将 有所回落，全年可能呈现前高后低的走势，需要重点关注经济的波动，我们预计 经济运行在内外部环境不确定性抬升的过程中或呈现非线性特征，供给和需求可 能呈现 K 型分化走势。我们判断，后续在出口波动的影响下，供给端大概率在抢 出口效应下保持偏强态势，但固定资产投资尤其是制造业投资方面可能受制于中 长期不确定性的约束，预计固定资产投资后续可能放缓。 6 月份服务业景气较为积极，6 月份全国服务业生产指数同比增长 6.0%。工业生 产积极对生产性服务业有带动作用。 展望未来，在工业稳增长及两新政 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity and entering the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand support is expected to strengthen, but inventory remains at a historical high. Overall, the price will show a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of placing long orders for industrial silicon at low prices [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, the expected reduction in electricity prices and increased profits may boost production capacity. However, demand growth is limited, and high inventory pressure persists. If effective industry integration or coordinated production reduction measures are implemented, it may reverse the current situation. It is recommended to focus on the positive spread opportunity between PS2509 - PS2511 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon **Futures Data** - The industrial silicon futures main contract shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.5%, a daily decline of 0.19%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 96.3%. The main contract's closing price was 8785 yuan/ton, with a 1.04% increase; trading volume was 1,416,898 lots, down 3.87%; and open interest was 396,653 lots, down 1.55% [2][12]. - The SI09 - 11 spread was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SI11 - 12 spread was - 290 yuan/ton, down 9.43% [14]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions have increased, such as the East China 553 at 9150 yuan/ton, up 1.67%, and the East China 421 at 9500 yuan/ton, up 2.15%. The East China 553 basis was 365 yuan/ton, up 19.67%, and the East China 421 basis was 715 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The East China 421 - 553 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [16]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts were 50,258 lots, up 29.69%. Warehouse receipts in various delivery warehouses showed different changes, such as a 6.59% increase in the Tianjin delivery warehouse to 10.1 million tons [22][23]. Polysilicon **Futures Data** - The polysilicon futures main contract also shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 44.05%, a daily decline of 0.94%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 82.57%. The main contract's closing price was 42,470 yuan/ton, with a 1.69% increase; trading volume was 565,746 lots, up 20.29%; and open interest was 69,821 lots, down 10.86% [2][25]. - The PS08 - 09 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 9.38%; the PS08 - 11 spread was 1530 yuan/ton, down 5.56%; the PS09 - 11 spread was 1180 yuan/ton, down 9.23%; the PS11 - 12 spread was - 2270 yuan/ton, down 5.34% [27]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of polysilicon showed little change. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index remained at 43.45 yuan/kg, and the particle silicon price decreased by 1.15% to 43 yuan/kg [32]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data** - The polysilicon main contract basis was 980 yuan/ton, down 41.84%; the PS2509 contract basis was 1330 yuan/ton, down 33.7%; the PS2511 contract basis was 2510 yuan/ton, down 24.05%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remained unchanged [39][41].

上半年经济发展有何特点？下半年有哪些展望值得关注？近期汽车、光伏等产业"内卷式"竞争受到广泛 关注，接下来在反"内卷"方面可能有哪些重点方向？针对这些问题，21世纪经济报道记者专访了国家信 息中心经济预测部产业经济研究室主任、研究员魏琪嘉。 魏琪嘉表示，当前我国经济持续向好态势不断巩固，经济实力、科技实力、综合国力显著增强。工业高 端化、智能化、绿色化发展持续取得明显成效，为整个经济发展提供了强有力的支撑。今年发展主要预 期目标是国内生产总值增长5%左右，实现全年经济社会发展目标有四个方面需要关注，一是加大宏观 政策逆周期调节，二是全方位扩大国内需求，三是推动进一步全面深化改革举措落实落地，四是扩大高 水平对外开放。 21世纪经济报道见习记者冉黎黎 北京报道 7月15日，国家统计局公布上半年国民经济运行情况，初步核算，上半年国内生产总值660536亿元，按 不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%。 魏琪嘉指出，当前广受关注的"内卷式"竞争，反映的是在新兴产业发展过程中供给和需求力量对比的一 个动态过程，要坚持具体问题具体分析，避免"一刀切"，要加快全国统一大市场建设，确保公平竞争， 避免价格信号被"内卷式"竞争扭曲。 ...

Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, China's GDP growth rate reached 5.2%, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1, but still above the 5% target, supported by proactive fiscal policies and a temporary pause in US tariffs, which encouraged exports [3][4]. - Despite the growth, domestic demand remains weak, with inflation levels low and the GDP deflator index negative for nine consecutive quarters, indicating downward pressure on the economy [3][4]. Consumption Trends - Consumer spending showed signs of weakening in June 2025, with retail sales growth remaining at 5.0% for the first half of the year, and restaurant sales growth at 4.3%, both reflecting a slowdown compared to earlier months [3][23]. - The increase in consumption has been largely driven by policy subsidies rather than a sustainable rise in household income, as new short-term loans for residents have not been strong [3][23]. Industrial Production - In June 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value increased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.4%, indicating that production continues to outpace demand [3][6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive at 0.1% year-on-year, supported by fresh vegetable and energy prices, although the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an expanded decline, reflecting ongoing supply-demand imbalances [3][8]. Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth declined to 2.8% year-on-year in June 2025, with real estate investment down by 11.2%, infrastructure investment at 8.9%, and manufacturing investment at 7.5%, all indicating a weakening trend [3][10]. - The core issue in the domestic economy remains the contraction in demand and weakening expectations, with the bond market expected to remain in a favorable position despite recent adjustments [3][10]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the economic landscape in July 2025 may not see significant tightening of funds, with the central bank's supportive stance indicated by a recent 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repo operation [3][10]. - Potential catalysts for a breakthrough in 10-year government bonds include new rounds of interest rate cuts and the resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank [3][10].

21世纪经济报道见习记者冉黎黎 北京报道 上半年，工业生产实现较快增长。 规模以上工业增加值同比增长速度 （图/国家统计局） 其中，装备制造业和高技术制造业增势良好。上半年，装备制造业增加值同比增长10.2%，高技术制造 业增加值增长9.5%，增速分别快于全部规模以上工业3.8和3.1个百分点。 盛来运表示，"上半年，高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%，2024年'三新'产业增加值占GDP比重达到 18%左右，新动能在积聚。" 7月15日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—6月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.4%。其中，装备 制造业和高技术制造业增势良好，增速分别快于全部规模以上工业3.8和3.1个百分点，作为"新动能"的 一部分，高技术产业在上半年各月也呈现出"规律性"领跑的态势。 展望下半年，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙对21世纪经济报道记者表示，稳增长政策可能会进一步 加码，下半年规上工业增加值增速可能还会有所提升。 7月15日，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍2025年上半年国民经济运行情况，国家统计局副局长盛来运在会 上表示，按照中央要求，近期有关部门加快推出下半年政策，会继续为经济稳定运行发挥关键支撑作 ...

Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, with the first and second industries growing by 3.7% and 5.3% respectively, while the tertiary industry grew by 5.5% [1][5] - The GDP growth rate for the first quarter was 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a slight decline to 5.2%, primarily due to investment drag, especially in real estate [1][3] Consumption Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% year-on-year in the first half, with a notable impact from the "old-for-new" policy on key items like mobile phones, home appliances, and automobiles [2][5] - Service retail sales grew by 5.3%, driven by holiday consumption and inbound tourism, with significant increases in foreign visitors during the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays [2][5] Export Performance - China's total goods import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports at 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports decreased by 2.7% [3][5] - The export growth rate improved in the second quarter, with a notable resilience despite high tariffs imposed by the U.S., and a significant increase in exports to the EU and ASEAN [3][5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments showing a decline compared to the first quarter [4][5] - Real estate investment saw a significant drop of 11.2%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [4][5] Policy and Future Outlook - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to stabilize growth, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and addressing the issue of insufficient effective demand [6][7] - The upcoming "old-for-new" consumption policy is anticipated to boost consumer spending in the fourth quarter, although it may raise the baseline for comparison [7][8]

Industry Overview - The steel industry, which has been sluggish for years, may be emerging from its low point, with 20 listed steel companies in the A-share market providing optimistic mid-year performance forecasts for 2025 [1] - Several companies, including Benxi Steel and Ansteel, reported a better outlook for the steel industry compared to the same period last year, indicating a weak balance between supply and demand in the market [1] Performance Forecasts - Benxi Steel expects a net loss of 1.405 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a reduction in loss by 9.4% year-on-year, while Ansteel anticipates a net loss of 1.144 billion yuan, a significant reduction of approximately 57.46% compared to the previous year [2] - Overall, 17 out of the 20 companies that released forecasts are expected to show varying degrees of growth or improvement in their performance [2] Profitability Trends - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, key steel enterprises achieved a total profit of 40.9 billion yuan from January to May, a year-on-year increase of 56.96%, with an average profit margin of 1.93%, up 0.80 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The reduction in upstream raw material prices and increased demand from downstream sectors such as automotive and manufacturing, driven by policies promoting stable growth and consumption, have positively impacted steel companies' profitability [2] Challenges Faced by Some Companies - A few companies, such as Lingyuan Steel and Fushun Special Steel, are experiencing worsened losses or turning to losses due to various factors, including increased fixed costs and declining product orders and prices [3] - Lingyuan Steel expects a net loss of approximately 577 million yuan, while Fushun Special Steel anticipates a loss between 260 million and 300 million yuan, citing reasons such as increased tax expenses and rising quality control costs [3] Future Outlook - The overall recovery in profitability presents an opportunity for the steel industry to improve processes and adjust product structures, with a focus on enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated production capacity [3] - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the industry is expected to further improve the supply-demand dynamics and accelerate the recovery of industry prosperity [3]

近日，钢铁上市公司陆续披露中期业绩预告。 整体来看，今年上半年，在原料成本回落、大力降本等多重因素作用下，钢铁行业的盈利情况明显好转。 不过，尽管业绩有所回暖，但7月15日港A两市的钢铁板块则呈现集体回调态势。截至收盘，中国铁钛（00893.HK）跌 10%，重庆钢铁股份（01053.HK）跌3.38%，鞍钢股份（00347.HK）跌1.4%。 在A股市场，相关概念股亦同步回落。截至收盘，八一钢铁（600581.SH）跌2.39%，鞍钢股份（000898.SZ）、华菱钢铁 （000932.SZ）、新钢股份（600782.SH）等均跌超1%。 市场分析表示，尽管上半年国内钢铁行业整体盈利状况有所改善，但下半年原材料价格进一步下跌的空间有限。此外，虽 然"反内卷"政策正持续发力，但钢铁市场后续走势仍要取决于减产力度、政策落地速度及下游需求。 钢铁行业利润显著改善 作为国民经济的支柱之一，钢铁行业扮演着不可替代的角色。 但近几年，钢铁行业需求端面临着房地产行业低迷、基建投资拉动有限、海外市场对中国钢材出口压力加大等多重挑战。 具体来看，首钢股份（000959.SZ）等7家公司上半年净利润实现两位数甚至三位数的大幅增 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - High temperatures and ongoing "anti-involution" trends are expected to support coal prices, particularly for thermal coal, as demand continues to rise with increased electricity consumption [3][8] - The supply-demand relationship for coking coal is easing, with prices expected to rise due to recovering supply and ongoing demand from downstream industries [24][25] - The coal sector has underperformed compared to broader market indices, with significant fluctuations in stock performance across various coal companies [4][3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed an upward trend, but the coal sector lagged behind major indices, with the coal industry index declining by 1.08% [4][3] - Major coal companies experienced mixed performance, with some showing significant gains while others faced declines [4] Thermal Coal - Port inventories of thermal coal are decreasing, and high temperatures are driving up prices, with expectations for continued price increases due to limited supply [8][9] - Daily coal consumption at power plants has increased, with southern power plants consuming 2.139 million tons, a 13.1% increase week-on-week [8][9] - The average daily inventory at northern ports has decreased to over 27 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [16][17] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are rising, supported by recovering supply and strong demand from steel manufacturers, with production rates remaining high despite some operational challenges [24][25] - The average utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased to 86.0%, indicating a recovery in production [24][25] - The market is seeing a shift in import dynamics, with Russian coal gaining market share due to competitive pricing [25][26] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at ports has increased, and shipping prices have risen, indicating a robust demand for coal transportation [32][33] - The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to various ports has shown an upward trend, reflecting increased shipping activity [32][33] Industry News - The National Energy Group has received approval for the first national standard verification point for carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), marking a significant step in the industry [35] - National electricity loads have reached historical highs due to high temperatures and economic growth, indicating strong demand for coal-fired power generation [35][36]