| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入去 | | 豆粕 | | 库阶段。进口空缺窗口期下，现货市场挺价意愿较强。叠加国际美豆出口及压榨数 | | | 短线止跌整理 | 据良好，阿根廷降雨未来十五天大幅低于正常水平，天气因素仍存干扰。内外因素 | | ★ | | 影响下，豆粕短线调整空间受限，继续做空谨慎对待，也可以关注企稳后的短多机 | | | | 会，关注后市南美天气情况。 | | | | 1 月菜籽零进口，2-3 月月均进口 12 万吨，远低于去年同期水平。菜粕现货库存压 | | 菜粕 | | 力缓解，供应偏紧，但消费淡季现货成交清淡。虽然 1 月美农报告环比调减全球菜 | | ★ | 短线止跌整理 | 籽产量及期末库存，中加贸易关系缓解，加籽进口综合关税降至 15%,长期将大幅化 | | | | 解国内进口供应。菜粕看多观望。 | | | | 国内现货成交清淡。最新印尼公布 2026 年暂不执行 B50 政策，打压市场看多情绪， | | 棕榈油 | 短期反弹 | 好在本月前 ...

Market Overview - The main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 101,020 CNY/ton and closed at 101,230 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05% from the previous trading day [14] - The night session saw the contract open at 101,020 CNY/ton and close at 99,930 CNY/ton, marking a decrease of 1.29% from the afternoon close [14] Spot Market - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot price was quoted at a discount of 280 to 20 CNY/ton against the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 150 CNY, down 30 CNY from the previous day [15] - The spot price range was between 100,270 and 101,180 CNY/ton, with the main copper futures initially rising before falling back to close at 101,000 CNY [15] - The current market is characterized by a discount structure due to high copper prices and limited downstream purchasing, with logistics remaining generally smooth despite potential impacts from snowfall in the north [15] Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price limits for various futures contracts effective January 22, 2026, including an 8% price limit for copper futures and a 10% margin for general positions [16][5] Mining Sector - Peru's copper production in November 2025 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year to 216,152 tons, while cumulative production from January to November 2025 increased by 1.6% to 2.5 million tons [17] - The long-term growth outlook for Peru's copper production remains weak due to a lack of new projects and declining ore grades, with expectations for only a slight increase to around 2.8 million tons in 2026 [17] Import and Recycling - In December 2025, China's imports of scrap copper totaled 238,976.87 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 14.83% and a year-on-year increase of 9.90% [17] - Japan was the largest source of scrap copper imports, while Thailand also showed significant growth in exports to China [17] Consumption Trends - Last week, copper prices remained stable with limited demand from downstream markets, as overall orders were lackluster, leading to a focus on just-in-time purchasing by downstream enterprises [18] - The LME warehouse stocks decreased by 3,850 tons to 156,300 tons, while SHFE stocks fell by 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons [18] Price Strategy - The current outlook for copper prices is neutral, with expectations of a trading range between 99,500 CNY/ton and 110,000 CNY/ton due to high prices and weak downstream demand [19]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 21 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货1月20日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 20, 2026 - **Stock Market**: A-share market showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.01% to 4113.65 points, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.97% to 14155.63 points, and ChiNext Index declined 1.79% to 3277.98 points. The total trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.8044 trillion yuan, up 72 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Index Futures**: The CSI 300 Index adjusted downward, closing at 4718.88, down 15.58 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Energy and Chemicals - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke weighted index trended weaker, closing at 1675.7, down 60.9. Coking coal weighted index also showed weakness, closing at 1130.5 yuan, down 52.5. Coke's first - round price increase is expected to be implemented this week, with general coking profits and a slight decline in daily production. Coking coal production has increased significantly, and terminal inventory has risen substantially [2][3][4]. - **Crude Oil - Related (not mentioned directly but related products)**: - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt 2603 oscillated downward, with a decline of 0.03%, closing at 3139 yuan. Asphalt production increased, inventory continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure was not significant. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 2.2 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: Affected by the continued decline in spot prices, the price of Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fell on Tuesday and continued to decline at night. Indian sugar consumption is expected to be around 28.5 million tons or slightly lower [4]. - **Rubber**: Due to favorable weather in Thailand and Indonesia and a significant increase in imports in December 2025, the price of Shanghai rubber declined on Tuesday. It rebounded slightly at night. China's rubber tire exports and natural and synthetic rubber imports increased year - on - year in 2025 [4]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean futures closed lower on January 20, with the main contract closing at 1053 cents per bushel, down 0.31%. In the domestic market, the main contract of soybean meal M2505 rose 0.33% to 2736 yuan/ton. Domestic soybean meal inventory reached a six - month low, but it may recover due to sufficient soybean supply [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures price rose slightly within the range on January 20. The main contract P2605 closed at 8748, up 1.16% from the previous day. Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased compared to the same period last month [5]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14620 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory decreased by 11 lots. India's minimum support price for cotton increased by about 8% this year [5]. - **Pig**: The main contract of live pigs LH2603 closed at 11550 yuan/ton, down 1.32%. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter rhythm of farmers may accelerate, and the supply of pigs is still high, while the demand for large pigs in the south is weakening [5]. 2.3 Metals - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper (CU2603) showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, closing at 101230, up slightly. The weakening US dollar index provided some support, but the market was cautious due to the approaching Spring Festival. There are expectations of production cuts in the smelting industry, and downstream demand is in the off - season [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated downward, with a decline of 1%, closing at 789.5 yuan. Both the shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore and the domestic arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Steel**: On January 20, rb2605 closed at 3111 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3276 yuan/ton. Due to snow and ice on the roads, construction at downstream sites was restricted, and transportation was blocked, leading to weakening terminal demand. Steel prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2671 yuan/ton. Domestic alumina production continued to increase, while demand was weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The price is under pressure [7]. - **Aluminum**: The al2603 contract closed at 23950 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while demand shows structural differentiation. The price is likely to remain high and fluctuate [7]. 2.4 Others - **Log**: The main contract of log 2603 fell for two consecutive days. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Attention should be paid to the support from the spot market, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore prices are weakening, and attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises [2][5]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing weak fluctuations due to disturbances in the raw material market [2][10]. - The cost expectation of ferrosilicon is rising, and it is in wide-range fluctuations; the demand-side expectation of silicomanganese is tightening, and it is also in wide-range fluctuations [2][14]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by both macro and micro factors, showing weak fluctuations [2][17]. - The market sentiment of thermal coal is weak, and the price will have a short-term weak adjustment [21]. - Logs are in a weak and volatile state [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 789.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan or 0.57%. The positions decreased by 29,929 hands. Imported ore prices generally declined, with a maximum drop of 5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 20, the 1-year and 5-year LPR remained unchanged from the previous month [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 futures contract was 3,111 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or 1.18%; the HC2605 was 3,276 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 0.97%. Spot prices in most regions declined, with a maximum drop of 30 yuan/ton [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: BHP's first-half iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted a partial price cut in the annual contract negotiation with China. On January 19, an explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant, affecting production. Steel production, inventory, and demand data for January 15 and December 2025 were released, and the government will implement export license management for some steel products [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,552 yuan/ton and 5,528 yuan/ton respectively, with the former up 4 yuan and the latter down 8 yuan. The silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,760 yuan/ton and 5,798 yuan/ton respectively, both down [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 20, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions showed certain changes. In 2025, the cumulative import volume of manganese ore increased by 12.04% year-on-year, and the import volume in December increased significantly. The export volume of ferrosilicon to various regions in 2025 was announced, and some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were determined [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,124 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan or 4.3%; the J2605 coke contract was 1,673.5 yuan/ton, down 47.5 yuan or 2.8%. Spot prices were mostly stable [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 20, the CCI metallurgical coal index was announced, and the coking coal online auction on January 19 had a low failure rate and mostly rising prices [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets showed different degrees of decline. The January long - term agreement prices also decreased [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, the national raw coal production increased month - on - month, and the annual output reached a new high. The coal import volume in December far exceeded expectations, and Indonesia's expected coal production quota in 2026 will be tightened [22]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 log futures contracts all declined, with daily declines of 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively. The prices of most log varieties in the spot market remained stable [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog comprehensive PMI was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1][7] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1][8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Exit long positions on rallies and wait and see [1][10] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1][13] - Nickel: Wait and see [1][14] - Tin: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions [1][15] - Gold: Range trading [1][18] - Silver: Bullish [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [1][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading [1][20] - Caustic soda: Temporarily wait and see [1][21] - Soda ash: Temporarily wait and see [1][28] - Styrene: Range trading [1][22] - Rubber: Range trading [1][22] - Urea: Range trading [1][25] - Methanol: Range trading [1][25] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound [1][26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range adjustment [1][28] - Apples: Weakly range - bound [1][29] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound [1][30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Short - term rebound, roll short opportunities [1][32] - Eggs: Not advisable to short in the short term [1][35] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs, wait for rebounds to hedge [1][37] - Soybean meal: Bearish on rallies [1][39] - Oils: Weakly range - bound [1][40] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures products in different industries, considering factors such as supply - demand relations, cost changes, geopolitical situations, and policy impacts [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Although the external environment is deteriorating and may put pressure on the index, it is still optimistic in the long - term, and investors can buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Yields of various maturities declined yesterday, with the long - end declining more. The market shows a situation where trading positions are passing on to allocation positions, and treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals. Although supply may be tightened, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - Rebar: Futures prices are weakly running. The valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Range trading is the main strategy [7] - Glass: Speculative sentiment has cooled. Although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the inventory in the middle reaches has increased. Demand may decline before the Spring Festival, and prices are expected to be weakly range - bound. Sell on rallies [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Prices have risen first and then fallen, and are in a high - level range. Although the long - term supply - demand shortage is expected, short - term support has decreased. Investors can exit long positions on rallies [10][11][12] - Aluminum: The prices of bauxite are under pressure to decline. The supply of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, but demand is entering the off - season. The market may continue to adjust at a high level, and investors are advised to strengthen observation [13] - Nickel: Although the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted prices, the current market has fully priced in. The fundamentals are weak, and investors are advised to wait and see [14] - Tin: Supply is tight, and downstream consumption maintains rigid demand. Prices are expected to be range - bound. Range trading or taking profit on previous long positions is recommended [15][16] - Gold and silver: Geopolitical tensions have increased, and the US economic data is weak. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver have moved up. Gold is suitable for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions [16][17][18] - Lithium carbonate: Supply and demand are both in a state of change. The price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mine end [18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The bottom may have emerged. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, the valuation is low, and there may be structural opportunities in the long - term. Range trading is recommended [20] - Caustic soda: Demand is difficult to support, and supply pressure is large. There is short - term delivery pressure, and investors are advised to wait and see [21] - Soda ash: Supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. The downward space of the market may be limited, and investors are advised to temporarily leave the market and wait and see [28] - Styrene: The previous rebound was fast, but the current valuation is high. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [22] - Rubber: The bottom support of natural rubber is weakening, and the seasonal inventory accumulation trend remains unchanged. The market may be weakly range - bound in the short - term [22] - Urea: Supply is increasing, demand is relatively stable, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and export policies [25] - Methanol: The supply in the inland area has recovered, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins remains high, but the traditional terminal demand is weak. The price in some areas is strong, and range trading is recommended [25] - Polyolefins: The cost support is strengthened, but the upward space of prices is limited. PE and PP are expected to be weakly range - bound, and short on rallies is the main strategy [26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Global cotton supply has decreased, and demand has increased. Although there is a high - level correction in the short - term, the long - term expectation is optimistic [28] - Apples: The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the transaction of fruit farmers' goods is not fast. Prices are expected to be weakly range - bound [29][30] - Jujubes: The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market transactions in Hebei and Guangdong are okay. Prices are expected to be weakly range - bound [30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The short - term price is under pressure due to supply and demand factors. In the long - term, the price may be affected by capacity reduction. Short on rallies is recommended for off - season contracts, and be cautious about bullishness for far - month contracts [32][34] - Eggs: The short - term spot price is expected to be strong, not advisable to short. In the medium - term, the pressure of new production is not large. In the long - term, the capacity clearance still takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors [35][37] - Corn: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Be cautious about chasing highs and wait for rebounds to hedge [37][38][39] - Soybean meal: The short - term price is supported by cost, and the far - month price is under pressure. Bearish on rallies is the main strategy [39] - Oils: The short - term trends of different oils are differentiated. Rapeseed oil is weakly range - bound, and the rebounds of soybean oil and palm oil are limited. Attention can be paid to the narrowing strategy of the spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil and between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [40][45]

人民财讯1月21日电，国内期市早盘开盘涨跌不一，铂涨超6%，钯涨超4%，碳酸锂涨超3%，沪金涨超 2%，PTA涨近2%，PX、燃油、苯乙烯（EB）、甲醇、瓶片、低硫燃料油（LU）涨超1%；焦煤跌超 3%，烧碱、焦炭、聚氯乙烯（PVC）跌超1%。 （原标题：国内期市早盘开盘 铂涨超6%） ...

今日关注 申购提示：今日1只新股申购。 财政部：2026年财政总体支出力度"只增不减"。 财政部发布多项政策，提高个人消费贷贴息标准，实施民间投资专项担保计划。 2．财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策。概括起 来就是"总量增加、结构更优、效益更好、动能更强"。2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持 必要水平，确保总体支出力度只增不减。 3．1月20日，财政部官网同时公布五项财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策，分别从加力提振消费、扩大民 间投资两个方面，推动扩大有效需求。 4．财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示，本次优化调整个人消费贷款贴息政策，将信用卡账 单分期业务纳入到了贴息范围，取消现有政策当中对一些消费领域的限制。新政策意味着只要是消费贷 款都可以享受贴息。 5．财政部综合司司长李先忠在国新办新闻发布会上表示，近期财政部、税务总局发布公告，明确自 2026年4月1日起取消光伏等产品出口退税，并分两年取消电子产品出口退税。此次出口退税政策调整， 有利于促进资源高效利用，也有利于引导产业结构合理调整，综合整治"内卷式"无序竞争，推动经济高 质量发展。 6． ...

Core Viewpoint - NYMEX February natural gas futures closed at $3.9070 per million British thermal units, indicating market activity in the energy sector [1] - NYMEX February gasoline futures settled at $1.8238 per gallon, reflecting pricing trends in the gasoline market [1] - NYMEX February heating oil futures ended at $2.3385 per gallon, showcasing the heating oil market's pricing dynamics [1] Group 1 - Natural gas futures price indicates a specific market condition for February [1] - Gasoline futures price reflects current trends in the gasoline market for February [1] - Heating oil futures price shows the market's response in the heating oil sector for February [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The lithium carbonate market is affected by supply - side concerns due to lithium mine license replacement and production suspension in Yichun, and the demand side shows a "rush - to - export" behavior. In the long - term, the price center may move up [1][2][3]. - The industrial silicon market is under downward pressure due to weak demand and high inventory, and the price still has room to fall [7][9]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of weak supply and demand with high inventory, and is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [14][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit today, with the main 2605 contract at 160,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: Supply concerns are triggered by the license replacement and production suspension of lithium mines in Yichun. The demand side is driven by the "rush - to - export" behavior, and the production of some phosphoric acid iron - lithium enterprises has recovered [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute level cycle of the 2605 contract is red line, red band, and red ladder. The overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 146,200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, operate cautiously and wait for the market to stabilize before buying at low prices. In the long - term, the price center may move up due to strong terminal demand [2][3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated weakly today, with the 2605 contract down 1.13% from the previous trading day's closing price, at 8,745 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: The impact of the planned production cut by a large Xinjiang factory yesterday has weakened. Supply is decreasing, and demand remains weak with low开工 rate and no pre - holiday stocking. High inventory also puts downward pressure on prices [7][9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures continues to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the 2605 contract is green line, red band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,605 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Operate by shorting at high prices, and refer to the Band Winner indicator during intraday trading [9]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures oscillated today, with the main 2605 contract up 0.39% from the previous trading day's closing price, at 50,700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: After the market supervision department's约谈, the silicon material price will return to cost - based competition. The supply and demand are both weak, and high inventory suppresses prices [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The position of polysilicon futures continues to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the 2605 contract is green line, red band, and green ladder. The overnight 2 - hour level cycle has turned into a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 48,420 yuan/ton [14]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The market is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the subsequent policy direction of "anti - involution" [15].