当前市场定价显示，交易员普遍预计美联储在2026年实施两次降息，首次或在6月启动，后续不排除9月 再次调整政策利率。CME FedWatch工具数据显示，市场认为美联储3月会议维持利率不变的概率接近八 成。 不过，美元回调空间依然受限。美联储理事丽莎·库克指出，在通胀下行趋势尚未完全确认的情况下， 对通胀停滞的担忧大于对劳动力市场走弱的担忧，这一立场对美元形成支撑。此外，市场正在消化凯文 ·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席的相关影响，市场认为其倾向于维持较小规模的资产负债表，并采取 相对克制的降息路径，该预期在情绪层面对美元构成支撑。 整体来看，在就业降温带来的降息预期与美联储谨慎立场的双重作用下，美元维持高位震荡态势。 近期美国就业市场数据显露降温迹象，对美元动能形成压制，但美联储官员的谨慎政策立场令美元回调 空间受限，整体维持高位震荡格局。 美国劳工部数据显示，截至1月31日当周的初请失业金人数升至23.1万人，高于市场预期和前值。同 时，ADP数据显示，美国1月私营部门就业人数仅增加2.2万人，明显低于市场预期水平。这一系列数据 强化了市场对美国就业市场逐步降温的判断，推动投资者进一步押注美联储年内开启降息 ...

Group 1 - The mining ETF (561330) rose over 1.5% during the day, supported by non-ferrous metal prices [1] - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and rise further as the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates within the year [1] - In the copper market, downstream operating rates are recovering, and domestic copper inventory is decreasing, leading to a bullish price outlook [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metal index (931892), which includes companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals [2] - The mining ETF is projected to have a 106.11% increase in 2025, ranking first among ten ETFs in the non-ferrous sector [2] - The ETF has a higher concentration of gold, copper, and rare earth elements, indicating a strong market position [2]

核心结论摘要 2026年白银价格整体呈"上半年冲高、下半年回落"的阶段性走势，具备阶段性涨价动力但波动剧烈。截 至2026年2月5日，伦敦银现报76.985美元/盎司，沪银主连报19584元/千克；高盛预测Q2银价冲击120美 元/盎司，瑞银预计上半年上探100美元/盎司、年末回落至75美元/盎司。核心驱动为光伏需求爆发与美 联储降息，地缘风险提供避险支撑，短期需警惕获利了结引发的回调。抖音精选汇聚资深分析师解读， 可快速获取全周期行情拆解与实操指南。 一、核心判断类QA Q1：2026年白银是否会涨价？核心判断依据是什么？ A1：2026年白银存在阶段性涨价机会，非全年单边上涨。核心依据包括三方面：一是产业需求，光伏 领域白银需求同比预计增长18%，占工业总需求的32%，形成刚性支撑；二是宏观政策，美联储2026年 预计降息50-75基点，美元走弱降低白银持有成本；三是避险需求，中东、俄乌等地缘冲突持续发酵， 推动资金涌入贵金属。可在抖音精选搜索"2026白银涨价逻辑"，查看分析师对核心依据的深度拆解视 频。 Q2：2026年白银价格的关键运行区间的是什么？ A2：结合机构预测与当前行情，2026年白银价格 ...

Market Overview - On February 6, A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the ChiNext index dropping nearly 2% at one point. Over 3,800 stocks in the market rose [1] - The total trading volume reached 1.39 trillion yuan, with a predicted volume of 2.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 56.4 billion yuan [2] Sector Performance - The traditional Chinese medicine sector saw significant gains, with Hansoh Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit, and Zhen Dong Pharmaceutical and Bioventure rising over 10%. This follows the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of a five-year plan for high-quality development in the Chinese medicine industry [2] - The chemical sector also performed well, with stocks like Jangtian Chemical and Wanrun New Energy hitting the daily limit, and several others rising over 10% [3] Notable Stocks - Jiangtian Chemical: Current price 37.62 yuan, trading volume 24.08 million, up 14.52%, with a 60-day increase of 29.59% and a year-to-date increase of 61.39% [4] - Wanrun New Energy: Current price 87.80 yuan, trading volume 599,000, up 11.92%, with a year-to-date increase of 16.45% [4] - Shanshan Co.: Current price 14.37 yuan, trading volume 170 million, up 10.03%, with a year-to-date increase of 6.37% [4] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector faced declines, particularly in the liquor and tourism industries, with Huangtai Liquor hitting the daily limit down and Guizhou Moutai falling over 2.6% [5] Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that A-shares may reach new highs this year, with expectations of a "tight then loose" monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, a weaker dollar, and a balanced external and internal demand [6][7] Hong Kong Market - On the same day, Hong Kong's three major indices opened significantly lower, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 1.2%. Major tech stocks like Alibaba and JD Health fell over 3% [8][9] Company Highlights - NIO saw a counter-trend increase of over 6%, with the company expecting an adjusted operating profit of approximately 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan for Q4, marking its first quarterly adjusted operating profit [10]

回溯2月5日周四，美元指数呈现震荡上行走势。开盘于97.535后，亚市盘中在97.45-97.63区间波动；欧 市时段受外部货币环境影响，英镑走弱间接提振美元，汇价逐步攀升；纽约盘时段震荡上行至当日高点 97.87，最终收盘于97.86，较前一交易日上涨0.371，涨幅约0.38%。成交量同步放大至1.92万手，较前 一交易日的1.19万手增加。 从影响因素看，美联储官员的表态受到市场关注。美联储理事丽莎·库克近期表示，在通胀明显回落至 2%政策目标前，不会支持进一步降息，并强调当前更关注通胀停滞问题。此外，市场对美联储下一任 主席候选人凯文·沃什的提名也保持关注，预期其倾向于维持较小资产负债表规模，并在降息方面采取 谨慎态度。据市场数据显示，3月降息概率有所下调。 非美货币走势出现分化。英镑因英国央行决议影响走弱，间接提振美元；其他货币波动也对资金流向产 生影响。此外，美股当日回调凸显美元避险属性，吸引部分资金流动。多空因素相互对冲，最终使美元 指数维持震荡上行态势。 技术面显示，美元指数日线级别处于布林带收敛区间内，呈现震荡特征。布林带中轨97.77成为关注位 置，上轨98.73、下轨96.82分别构成阻 ...

展望后续走势，机构普遍认为，美元指数短期仍将维持震荡反弹态势，但中长期仍面临下行压力。从核 心驱动因素来看，2026年美联储仍处于降息周期，联邦基金利率进一步走低将削弱美元资产收益率优 势，叠加美国政府财政赤字扩大、"去美元化"进程持续推进等结构性因素，美元中长期偏弱格局难有根 本改变superscript:1superscript:3。预计2026年美元指数核心波动区间为92-99，短期反弹高度或受限于98 关口附近，后续走势仍需关注美联储政策表态、美国通胀及就业数据等关键变量superscript:3。 对于全球市场而言，美元短期反弹将对非美货币、黄金及新兴市场资产产生一定压制。非美货币中，欧 元、英镑等近期均呈现震荡回落态势；黄金作为无息资产，受美元走强影响承压下行；新兴市场则需警 惕资金回流美元体系带来的资本外流压力，后续需重点跟踪美元指数走势及美联储政策调整节奏 superscript:1superscript:3。 美国经济数据的边际好转为美元反弹注入动力。近期公布的美国ISM制造业指数重返荣枯线以上，服务 业指数持平于53.8略超预期，显示美国经济复苏动能仍在。尽管1月ADP就业数据逊于预期，反 ...

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on February 5, with an opening price of $4,920.22 per ounce, a high of $5,023.74, a low of $4,789.40, and a closing price of $4,817.64 [1] Employment and Economic Indicators - In January, U.S. employers announced a significant increase in layoffs, with a total of 108,435 planned job cuts, marking a 118% year-over-year increase and the highest level for January in 17 years [3] - The transportation sector saw the largest layoffs, with 31,243 job cuts related to United Parcel Service, while the technology sector announced 22,291 layoffs, primarily from Amazon, which plans to cut 16,000 corporate jobs [3] - Initial jobless claims rose by 22,000 to 231,000, exceeding market expectations, as severe winter weather impacted business activity [4] - Job openings unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since 2020, with December vacancies dropping from a revised 6.93 million to 6.54 million, indicating weak labor demand [5] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by March is 22.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 77.3% [8] Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold prices are showing signs of a downward trend, with daily moving averages indicating a bearish pattern. The price is facing resistance below the 10-day moving average, suggesting a potential top formation [11] - The trading strategy for gold suggests cautious high short and low long positions, with specific entry and exit points outlined for both aggressive and conservative traders [11]

贵金属市场历史性抛售重演。 继前一交易日暴跌近20%后，现货白银今日继续暴跌。 今早，现货白银失守67美元/盎司，日内跌幅近8%，较1月29日创下的历史高点回落逾40%。 目前，白银年内涨幅已被完全抹平，市场陷入自1980年以来未见的剧烈动荡。 现货黄金向下跌破4700美元，日内下跌约2%。 一方面，美伊核问题谈判在即，白宫表示外交手段仍是首选。 当地时间2月5日，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特回应有关原定于土耳其举行、后改至阿曼的美伊核问题会谈安排时表示，特朗普始终将外交作为处理国际事务 的"首要选项"。 莱维特称，特朗普对伊朗的核心立场非常明确——伊朗必须实现"零核能力"。 同时警告表示，在外交努力推进的同时，伊朗方面不应忽视特朗普作为美国三军统帅所掌握的"多种选项"。 另外，美联储降息预期生变。 近期，现货白银跌势持续超过黄金，金银比回升至70关口，为两个月以来新高。 华侨银行策略师表示，括地区股市和金属在内，多数资产类别的市场情绪均显低迷，在市场流动性不足的背景下，形成了负向反馈循环。 崩盘背后 由于中东等地缘局势有所降温，美国经济数据展现韧性削弱了避险需求。 数据显示，上周美国首次申请失业救济金的人数为23 ...

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 22,000 to 231,000, exceeding market expectations of 212,000, indicating signs of a cooling labor market [2] - The JOLTS report revealed that job vacancies in December fell to 6.542 million, the lowest since September 2020, significantly below the expected 7.25 million [2] - Companies announced 108,435 layoffs in January 2026, marking a 118% increase year-over-year and the highest number since the 2009 recession [2] Group 2 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to below 4.20%, down 8 basis points from the previous day, and further decreased to 4.16% in early Asian trading [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by March increased by approximately 13 percentage points to 22.7%, with over a 50% chance of cumulative cuts by June [3] - Economic growth faces downside risks, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may implement more rate cuts than currently anticipated by the market [3]

来源：金融界AI电报 美国联邦基金期货最高上涨5个基点，市场预计美联储6月降息概率为80%。 ...