Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicates a potential new upward trend for precious metals, with Morgan Stanley projecting a year-end target of $3,800 per ounce for gold [1][7]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Movements - On September 2, London spot gold prices surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3,508.49, marking a new historical high after a four-month consolidation period [2]. - COMEX gold and silver futures also hit record highs during the same trading session, with COMEX gold peaking at $3,578.4 per ounce and COMEX silver reaching $41.99 per ounce, the highest levels since 2012 [2]. - Domestic gold and silver futures in China also saw significant increases, with the main gold contract closing at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 1.21%, and the main silver contract at 9,824 yuan per kilogram, up 2.33% [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers and Predictions - Multiple institutions highlight that the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are the primary catalyst for the current gold price surge, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [3]. - The market is reacting to macroeconomic policies and political risks, with concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to President Trump's influence, further enhancing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [4]. - Analysts predict that the breakout above $3,500 per ounce for gold could initiate a new upward trend, with silver prices expected to follow suit due to its industrial applications [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Future Outlook - Notable investment firms are focusing on upstream resource sectors, including gold, copper, and aluminum, anticipating a weaker dollar and limited supply growth, which could enhance the profitability of quality companies [5]. - Key upcoming economic indicators, such as U.S. employment data and CPI, are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [7]. - UBS forecasts that gold prices will continue to reach new highs in the coming quarters, supported by a low-interest-rate environment and rising geopolitical risks [7].

人民币汇率：英镑暴跌 【行情回顾】上前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1476，较上一交易日跌 101 个基点，夜盘收报 7.1390。人民币对美元中间价报 7.1089，较上一交易日调贬 17 个 基点。 【重要资讯】1）市场对英国财政状况的忧虑等因素叠加，英国 30 年期国债收益率升至 1998 年以来的最高水平，英镑出现大幅下跌。2）特朗普：周三将就关税裁决召开紧急会 议。最快将于周三向最高法院提出上诉，若关税的上诉被驳回，将不得不撤回关税。如果 关税裁决不利，将不得不退还数万亿美元。将督促最高法院加快裁决。3）美国 8 月 ISM 制造业指数从 7 月的 48 微升至 48.7，低于市场预期的 49，连续六个月低于荣枯线。新订 单指数升至 51.4，自今年年初以来首次扩张。但产出指数下滑 3.6 点至 47.8，重新跌入收 缩区间。 【核心逻辑】前期我们谈到当前美元兑人民币即期汇率的核心矛盾，并非方向选择层面， 而是时间维度下的节奏把控问题，关键变量在于央行对于人民币相对于美元的升值启动的 具体时点与推进过程中的速度把控。目前来看，美元兑人民币中间价暂时稳定在 7.10 附近， 那 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 09 月 03 日 全球主要市场表现 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,858.13 | -0.45% | | 深圳成指 | 12,553.84 | -2.14% | | 沪深 300 | 4,490.45 | -0.74% | | 上证 50 | 2,992.88 | 0.39% | | 中证 500 | 6,961.69 | -2.09% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 42,310.49 | 0.29% | | 道琼指数 | 45,295.81 | #DIV/0! | | 标普 500 | 6,415.54 | #DIV/0! | | 纳斯达克 | 21,279.63 | #DIV/0! | | 美元指数 | 98.3208 | 0.63% | | 人民币 | 7.1476 | 0.20% | | 纽约黄金 | 3,599.50 | #DIV/0! | | WTI 原油 | 65.59 | #DIV/0! | | LME 铜 | 10,013.50 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing the $3,500 per ounce mark and COMEX gold futures hitting a new high. Multiple institutions predict that after a four - month consolidation, precious metals may start a new upward trend. Morgan Stanley has set the year - end target price of gold at $3,800 per ounce [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increases, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue [3][9][10]. 3. Summaries by Catalog a. Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, and gold shows a convergent breakthrough. Trump's attempt to fire Fed governors and the USGS's proposal on silver import tariffs, along with dovish signals from the Fed and weak employment data, are positive for precious metals. However, inflation rebound, geopolitical risk reduction, and other factors limit the upside of gold. In the long - term, gold is still supported [2][18]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small and medium - cap stocks correcting significantly. The domestic market has a high probability of continued market trends, but one needs to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Different indexes have different characteristics in terms of risk and return [3][9][10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the copper price may fluctuate within a range [3][19]. b. Main News on the Day - **International News**: Trump's government will request the Supreme Court to expedite the ruling on the global tariff case to overturn the federal court's decision that multiple tariffs are illegal. Market analysts believe that corporate bond issuance and budget concerns in developed countries are the main reasons for the stock market decline [4]. - **Domestic News**: China will expand the scope of visa - free countries, implementing a visa - free policy for Russian ordinary passport holders from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [5]. - **Industry News**: In August 2025, there were 2.65 million new A - share accounts, a year - on - year and month - on - month significant increase [6]. c. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 1 and 2, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. [7] d. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined, and the domestic market has a high probability of continued trends, with different indexes having different risk - return characteristics [9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The market funds are loosening, and the equity market is volatile. The stock - bond seesaw effect continues, and one should pay attention to the impact of the equity market on the bond market [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. Geopolitical factors affect oil exports, and the OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. One should follow up on OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate and coal - to - olefin plant operating rate changed, and the coastal inventory is at a relatively high level. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Other Energy and Chemical Products**: Rubber may continue to correct in the short term; polyolefin prices are generally weak; glass and soda ash futures are weak, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and consumption in autumn [14][16][17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, with multiple factors influencing their trends, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night, with multiple factors affecting it, and it may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Other Metals**: Zinc may fluctuate weakly within a range; the short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by emotions, and one should be cautious about short - selling; iron ore is expected to be bullish in the medium - term; the steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand; double - coking products are in a high - level oscillation state; protein meal is expected to fluctuate narrowly; oils and fats are expected to continue to oscillate; sugar and cotton are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; the container shipping European line may oscillate in the short term [20][22][23].

黄金股票ETF（517400）跟踪的是SSH黄金股票指数（931238），该指数从A股和港股市场中选取50只 涉及黄金采掘、冶炼及销售等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖黄金全产业链。指数成分股兼具 中小市值特征与龙头效应，行业集中度较高，旨在反映黄金产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接C（021674），国泰中证沪深 港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接A（021673）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 相关机构表示，近期，美联储降息交易升温，叠加宏观及地缘政治不确定性，金价创下新高。市场除押 注9月美联储降息之外，更预期美联储的独立性在特朗普政府近期的一系列干涉下受到动摇，这将构成 对金价的中长期支撑。此前，在美国4月对等关税降温后，金价延续高位震荡至今， ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.64% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.99%, with major tech stocks collectively increasing, including JD.com up nearly 3%, Baidu up 2.3%, Xiaomi up nearly 2%, Alibaba up over 1%, and Kuaishou up 0.77% [1] - Spot gold reached a new high of $3,547 per ounce, leading to strong performance in gold stocks, with Tongguan Gold and Chifeng Gold rising over 5% [1] - Automotive stocks generally rose, with NIO and Li Auto both increasing over 3% [1] Market Sentiment and Trends - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a fourth consecutive month of gains in August, driven by southbound capital inflows, improved market sentiment, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [2][3] - There is a strong net inflow of southbound capital, and external funding conditions are improving, although concerns about the fundamentals remain [3] - The potential for foreign capital to return to Hong Kong stocks is heightened under the Fed's anticipated rate cut, particularly favoring technology and financial sectors [3] Investment Opportunities - The overall profitability of Hong Kong stocks is relatively strong, with sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals being relatively scarce [3] - Despite recent gains, the overall valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains low, suggesting a favorable long-term investment outlook [3] - The deepening of the Hong Kong listing system reform is expected to enhance asset quality and liquidity in the market [4] Company News - WuXi AppTec (02268) plans to place 23 million shares to raise HKD 1.31 billion, with a placement price of HKD 58.85 per share [6] - NIO (09866) reported Q2 automotive sales of RMB 16.1361 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with revenue of approximately RMB 19.009 billion, up 9% year-on-year [6] - NIO's Q3 revenue guidance is set between RMB 21.81 billion and RMB 22.88 billion, marking a historical high [6]

智通财经APP注意到，黄金延续连续六天的涨势，刷新历史最高纪录。由于美国降息前景增强了黄金的吸引力，加之股市和债市抛售促使交易员寻求避险， 贵金属需求持续攀升。 周三亚洲市场开盘时，现货黄金价格上涨0.4%，至每盎司3546.96美元，略高于周二创下的历史高点。在过去六个交易日中，金价累计上涨5%，支撑因素包 括市场对美联储未来政策的重新担忧、发达国家预算问题引发的避险需求升温。 今年以来黄金涨幅超过三分之一，成为表现最佳的主要大宗商品之一。近期上涨动力源于市场预期美联储本月将降息——此前美联储主席鲍威尔已谨慎地为 降息打开大门。本周五将公布的美国关键就业报告很可能进一步显示劳动力市场日益疲软，这为降息提供了更多依据。低利率环境通常有利于无息资产黄金 的表现。 过去三年间，黄金和白银价格均上涨逾一倍。地缘政治、经济和全球贸易领域日益增长的风险，推动了对这些传统避险资产的需求。 今年特朗普总统对美联储的抨击升级，加剧了市场对央行独立性受威胁的担忧。 市场正在等待一项具有里程碑意义的裁决，以确定特朗普是否有合法理由将美联储理事丽莎·库克免职。若该举动被认定合法，总统将可任命一位偏鸽派的 官员接替其职位。 投资者还 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US stock market has experienced four consecutive months of growth, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and strong corporate earnings, with Morgan Stanley strategist Wilson believing this upward trend will continue [1][3] - Wilson predicts that the current economic phase in the US is in the "early cycle stage," where lower borrowing costs alleviate corporate financing pressures, creating favorable conditions for profit growth through expansion, R&D investment, and debt optimization [3] - Small-cap stocks, which are more sensitive to interest rate changes, are expected to see improved financing conditions and profit expectations as the Fed's rate-cutting cycle begins, contributing to overall market growth [3] Group 2 - Wilson asserts that the stock market has not fully priced in the benefits of future interest rate cuts, indicating further upside potential for the market as these policies are implemented [3] - Since April, the S&P 500 index has surged to a record high, aided by reduced concerns over US tariff policies and a growing optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, which has positively impacted tech giants' stock prices [3] - Evercore ISI strategists forecast a potential 20% increase in the S&P 500 index by the end of 2026 due to the influence of artificial intelligence [4] Group 3 - The focus of the market is currently on labor market data, which is closely tied to inflation; a hot job market could lead to increased inflationary pressures, while a moderate job market may allow for a smoother path for interest rate cuts [4] - Wilson warns of a seasonal weakness trend in September, suggesting that short-term consolidation could help the market digest previous gains and reduce valuation bubble risks, setting the stage for a healthier market environment [4] - Goldman Sachs notes that institutional investors are currently cautious after two months of selling, but believes that as long as there are no significant negative impacts on economic fundamentals, corporate earnings, or policy direction, any market declines will be limited [4]

贵金属日报 2025-09-03 贵金属 沪金涨 1.08 %，报 813.00 元/克，沪银涨 0.01 %，报 9836.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.22 %， 报 3600.20 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.27 %，报 41.71 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.28%，美元指数报 98.32 ； 市场展望： 昨夜公布的美国经济数据弱势，同时针对美联储理事库克的不利证据进一步显现，市场加大对 于后续联储宽松的货币政策预期，令金银价格得到支撑。 美国 8 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 为 48.7，仍处于荣枯线之下，低于预期的 49。美国供应链协会表示 制造业经济活动已经连续六个月萎缩，且生产收缩的速度等于新订单的扩张速度。美国制造业 表现仍总体疲软。美联储人事方面，特朗普团队成员、美国联邦住房局局长普尔特表示已掌握 美联储理事库克将申报为私人住所的房屋出租给租客的证据。这增加了库克留任联储理事的难 度，特朗普将有机会继续任命鸽派票委进入联储，对进一步的降息操作形成支持。 基于当前美联储人事变动以及关键人物的表态，结合美国劳动力市场整体而言的边际弱化，联 储后续将步入超市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals. With a high probability of Fed rate cuts and a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals show different trends. Some metals are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others face a divergence between macro - background and industrial status [2][4][6]. Summary by Metal Copper - US manufacturing PMI was slightly weaker than expected, and copper prices rose. LME copper closed up 1.4% to $10,013/ton, and SHFE copper main contract reached 80,410 yuan/ton. - LME copper inventory decreased by 100 to 158,775 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 8.2%. - In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased, and the basis quote was lowered. The downstream buying sentiment was poor. - The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1,850 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage continued to increase. - Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory and bullish, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 79,600 - 81,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,880 - 10,100/ton [2]. Aluminum - With rising crude oil prices, aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum closed up 0.08% to $2,621/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract reached 20,845 yuan/ton. - SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased, and futures warehouse receipts slightly increased. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. Aluminum rod processing fees declined, and downstream demand was weak. - The Fed's dovish signal increased the expectation of a September rate cut. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,700 - 20,950 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,600 - 2,640/ton [4]. Lead - SHFE lead index closed down 0.03% to 16,852 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1,996/ton. - Lead concentrate inventory decreased marginally, and processing fees were in a downward trend. - The supply of lead ingots decreased marginally. With a high Fed rate - cut expectation and a positive non - ferrous metals sector, lead prices are expected to be bullish [6]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index closed up 0.68% to 22,319 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,850.5/ton. - Zinc concentrate inventory increased seasonally, and smelting output continued to expand. Zinc ingot social inventory increased rapidly. - Downstream enterprise operating rates did not improve significantly, and the industry remained in an oversupply situation. - Due to a high Fed rate - cut expectation and a positive non - ferrous metals sector, there is a divergence between the macro - background and industrial status. Zinc prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern with limited short - term downside [7]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar was slow, and tin ore shortages in Yunnan were severe. - Downstream demand was in the off - season, and traditional consumption areas were weak. - It is expected that refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Nickel - Nickel prices were weakly oscillatory. Nickel - iron prices are expected to be stable and slightly bullish in the short term. - The supply of intermediate products was in short supply, and demand provided some support. - Although the refined nickel supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, there are long - term supports for nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The SHFE nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed down, and the LC2511 contract price also decreased. - The impact of mine - end disturbances subsided, and there was a lack of bullish drivers. Lithium carbonate continued its weak adjustment. - It is necessary to pay attention to overseas supply and industrial news. The LC2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 74,500 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - The alumina index rose 0.5% to 3,020 yuan/ton. - Ore supply disturbances continued, and the macro - sentiment improvement was expected to drive the non - ferrous metals sector. - Short - term alumina futures prices have limited downside, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2,900 - 3,300 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed up 0.08% to 12,960 yuan/ton. - The Indonesian riot raised concerns about nickel raw material supply. With the approaching of the traditional consumption season, stainless - steel consumption is expected to increase [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 contract closed up 0.12% to 20,300 yuan/ton. - Cast aluminum alloy is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and inventory is increasing. - Short - term cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be high, with cost support and increased market activity [18].