1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The market will be affected by soybean meal in the short term and maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2460 - 2520 range - bound state. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish; the inventory is decreasing both week - on - week and year - on - year, which is bullish; the price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish; the main long positions are increasing with capital inflow, which is bullish. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate and decline due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and recent rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations, and will return to a volatile pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, and the impacts of Ukraine's rapeseed production reduction and Russia's production increase due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 24 to November 3, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2997 - 3079 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 5.35 - 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2480 - 2600 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.3 million tons on October 29. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 479 - 528 yuan/ton [13]. - From October 24 to November 3, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract fluctuated between 2325 - 2491 yuan/ton, the far - month 2605 contract fluctuated between 2300 - 2380 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian fluctuated between 2480 - 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - From October 23 to November 3, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4702 to 2955 [16]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, the rapeseed meal inventory was at a low level, and the rapeseed processing volume of oil mills remained low. Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [22][24][34]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide specific content for position data.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Lead**: The lead price is under pressure and may oscillate downward due to weakening downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved supply tightness, and good refinery profits with an open import window [1]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has some support at the bottom but limited upward momentum. The domestic mine supply pattern has tightened, and the terminal demand is weak. The Fed's hawkish stance on interest - rate cuts also suppresses the zinc price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead Market** - **Prices**: The SMM1 lead ingot average price remained flat, and the Shanghai lead futures main - contract closed 0.17% higher than the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) price was unchanged at $2,025/ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio rose 0.17% to 8.60 [1]. - **Supply**: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some primary lead refineries have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in production. The supply of secondary lead has increased as previously - shut - down refineries resume production [1]. - **Demand**: The terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises' operations are stable, with an increase in demand [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing short positions [1]. **Zinc Market** - **Prices**: The SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.32%, and the Shanghai zinc futures main - contract rose 0.94%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio rose 0.94% to 7.40 [1]. - **Supply**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc - ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc - concentrate processing fees may continue to decline in October. Refinery production is expected to remain around 600,000 tons per month [1]. - **Demand**: There is no significant improvement in demand. The zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London price ratio deteriorates [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [1]. **Other Information** - In Shandong's Binzhou, the subsequent vehicle trade - in subsidy activity will implement a "qualification first, subsidy application later" policy from November 5 to December 31, 2025 [1]. - In Guangdong's Shaoguan, the Phase I mining project for resource integration at the Fankou Lead - Zinc Mine started, with a total investment of 830 million yuan and expected annual revenue increase of over 400 million yuan after reaching full production [1].

集运指数（欧线）：短线偏弱，等待开舱指引 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 2025 年 11 月 4 日 资料来源：同花顺 iFind，Geek Rate，公司官网，国泰君安期货研究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,851.7 | -1.60% | 18,824 | 29,320 | -2,045 | 0.64 | 1.90 | | | EC2512 | 1,592.2 | 0.54% | 5,040 | 18,781 | 326 | 0.27 | 0.62 | | | EC2602 | 1,184.4 | 0.64% | 2,233 | 14,507 | -403 | 0.15 | ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251104：区间整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/11/4 指标 | | | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 9,140.00 | 0.44% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 元/吨 | | 160.00 | -40.00 | | 元/千克 N型多晶硅料 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 56,065.00 | -0.61% | | 基差 元/吨 | | -5,065.00 | 345.00 | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,200.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 元/吨 | | ...

Group 1: Glass Futures - The glass 2601 futures fluctuated upward on November 3rd, reaching a maximum of 1,126 yuan/ton and closing slightly higher. The rise was due to the temporary dominance of the expected side in the long - short game [3]. - The core drivers are: spot price cuts stimulating demand, with many regions' sales - to - production ratios exceeding 100%, and mid - downstream replenishment providing short - term price support; coal price increases pushing up production costs and providing a rigid bottom for low prices; the approaching industry meeting spurring policy - favorable expectations, and some funds closing positions in advance to avoid risks, leading to a rise with reduced positions [3]. - Four coal - fired production lines in the Shahe area stopped feeding on November 2nd, involving a daily production capacity of 2,400 tons. After the news, local glass traders stocked up, and the sales - to - production ratio on Sunday reached 166%, the highest since the National Day holiday [3]. - In the short term, attention should be paid to the implementation and breakthrough of industry meeting policies, and short - long opportunities should be grasped [4]. - Technically, the glass futures rose and then fell today, and may maintain a volatile operation in the short term. The daily melting change is small, inventory has decreased this week, and future drivers mainly lie in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [19][20]. Group 2: A - share Index - A - share's three major indexes opened lower and moved lower in the morning. The Shanghai Composite Index turned positive first near noon, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index followed in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small阳线 with a long lower shadow. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [7]. Group 3: Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilizing, and investors can buy on dips [12]. Group 4: Iron Ore - After the holiday, there is no actual improvement at the terminal, and hot metal production may decline periodically. Technically, it fell back near the previous high, and is regarded as oscillating bearishly [15]. - In the short term, there are long - term agreement negotiations and accident disturbances on the supply side, but in the long term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply still exists [16]. Group 5: Eggs - The inventory of laying hens continues to increase, and the supply of eggs is relatively sufficient, suppressing the price rebound. However, based on the current price and cost, future egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken. Investors can grasp short - long opportunities [23]. Group 6: Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong remains stable. Downstream paper mills' price increases boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, the port inventory reduction is still lower than expected, and the purchasing side is cautious. Pulp is expected to continue to operate weakly and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [26].

免费声明:宏源规货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的规律经营机构。已具备知货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料、本公 司时这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的容观、公正,但文中的观点、特论和难议 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。（风险提示：期市有风险 人市需要按2 研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据采源:SMM W 娱与不锈钢日评20251103:成本支撑较弱,不锈钢空单持有 | 2025-10-31 2025-10-30 交易日期(日) 2025-10-24 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货近月合约 收盘价 120290.00 120660.00 121860.00 -370.00 ~ n | | | | | | 期货连一合约 收盘价 120590.00 120980.00 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market is expected to be volatile with no obvious driving factors. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is negative, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is also expected to be volatile with no clear drivers. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is positive, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production was 643,500 tons, a 0.72% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 80.87%, a 0.59 - percentage - point decrease. Some plants were under maintenance, increasing the maintenance loss [2]. - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64%. The overall agricultural film start - up rate increased by 2.75%, and the PE packaging film start - up rate increased by 0.52%. In September, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0222 million tons, a 10.07% year - on - year decrease and a 7.58% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 416,000 tons, a 19.16% month - on - month decrease. The social sample warehouse inventory was 527,400 tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease and a 9.18% year - on - year decrease. The import cargo warehouse inventory also decreased [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 309, and the futures price is at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: The costs of oil - based, coal - based, and ethane - based production increased, while the methanol - based cost decreased. The main reason for the increase in oil prices is the US sanctions on Russia and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. 3.2 PP Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 1.49% increase from last week and a 17.79% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 77.06%, a 1.12% increase [3]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61%. The demand for medical products and cold - chain packaging increased, and the BOPP industry's start - up rate increased steadily. However, the plastic - weaving industry was affected by rainy weather [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 595,100 tons, a 6.80% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 2.25% month - on - month, and the trader sample inventory decreased by 7.80% month - on - month [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 20, and the futures price is around par [3]. - **Profit**: This week, the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of oil - based and PDH - based PP production declined [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [3]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 1.08%, PE futures price decreased by 1.00%, LLDPE CFR decreased by 1.22%, and ethylene CFR decreased by 3.85% [5]. - **Production and Start - up Rates**: PP production decreased by 5.22%, PE production decreased by 0.72%, PP start - up rate increased by 4.83%, and PE start - up rate decreased by 0.73% [5]. - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory decreased by 5.88%, PE social inventory increased by 0.10%, HDPE social inventory decreased by 3.16% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass has resilient demand and low valuation, with supply and demand providing support, so it is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term [3] - For soda ash, short - term supply and demand are acceptable and the valuation is low, but the supply is at a high level and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview Glass - **Supply**: Production is stable, with a daily output of 161,300 tons this week, the same as on the 23rd. The industry start - up rate is 76.35% and the capacity utilization rate is 80.63%, both unchanged from the 23rd. There are no changes in production lines this week, and next week's production is expected to remain stable [3] - **Demand**: The peak - season demand is supported, and the recent production and sales fluctuate with prices. Overall, downstream demand has strong resilience [3] - **Inventory**: Inventory is slightly reduced. Enterprise inventory is 65.79 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 823,000 heavy cases (-1.24%), and a year - on - year increase of 28.85%. The inventory days are 28 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [3] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis strengthened this week, and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [3] - **Valuation**: Valuation is low [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Macro sentiment is changeable, and the impact has temporarily subsided [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Mainly buy on dips in the short - term; Arbitrage: None; Risk concerns: Daily melting volume, production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3] Soda Ash - **Supply**: Supply is at a high level. This week's soda ash production is 757,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons (2.29%). There are no planned overhauls next week, and with some enterprises increasing their loads, the overall supply is expected to increase [4] - **Demand**: Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. Downstream replenishment demand provides support [4] - **Inventory**: Inventory fluctuates. The total manufacturer inventory is 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons (-0.01%) compared to last Thursday. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation as supply recovers [4] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis fluctuated and strengthened this week, and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [4] - **Valuation**: Valuation is low [4] - **Macro and Policy**: Macro sentiment is changeable, and the impact has temporarily subsided [4] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Short - term supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: None; Risk concerns: Alkali plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4] PART TWO: Futures and Spot Market Review - **Glass**: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1083 (-9), and the Shahe spot price was 1048 (-4). The 01 - 05 spread fluctuated, and the basis weakened [6][21] - **Soda Ash**: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1225 (-4), and the Shahe spot price was 1185 (0). The 01 - 05 spread fluctuated, and the basis strengthened [11][21] PART THREE: Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - **Supply**: Production is stable. The daily output of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the start - up rate and capacity utilization rate are unchanged. Production profit fluctuates and weakens [23][24] - **Demand**: Downstream deep - processing orders are average, and real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor. However, inventory is slightly reduced [27][28] Soda Ash - **Supply**: Supply is at a high level. This week's production is 757,600 tons, with an increase in both light and heavy alkali production. Next week, supply is expected to increase. Alkali plant profits are decreasing [31][33] - **Demand**: Overall demand is neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish and volatile [2][4] - Rebar: Subject to sector sentiment, wide - range volatile [2][8] - Hot - rolled coil: Subject to sector sentiment, wide - range volatile [2][9] - Ferrosilicon: Weakly volatile due to sector sentiment and supply - demand factors [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Weakly volatile due to sector sentiment and supply - demand factors [2][13] - Coke: Bullish and volatile [2][17] - Coking coal: Bullish and volatile due to macro and sector theme resonance [2][18] - Logs: Volatile and fluctuating [2][20] 2. Core Views - The report provides daily investment outlooks for various black - series commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. It analyzes their market trends based on fundamental data and macro - industry news [2][4][9] 3. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 800 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan (- 0.31%). The open interest decreased by 11,268 lots. Imported and domestic spot prices mostly declined. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4] - **Macro - Industry News**: On October 29, 2025, it was announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, on October 30 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The RB2601 rebar futures closed at 3,106 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 0.48%), and HC2601 hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3,308 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan (- 0.72%). Spot prices in some regions declined. Some basis and spread values changed [9] - **Macro - Industry News**: On October 30, steel output increased, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. Five departments supported commercial real estate REIT issuance. The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the steel industry. In September 2025, China's steel exports increased in volume and decreased in price, while imports increased in volume and decreased slightly in price [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Ferrosilicon 2601 futures closed at 5,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan, and silicomanganese 2601 futures closed at 5,772 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. Spot prices and various spreads changed [13] - **Macro - Industry News**: On October 31, 2025, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices had different changes in different regions. In October, the production of silicomanganese in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia had some adjustments. The average start - up rate of ferrosilicon in October was 50.83%, with a slight decrease from September. Manganese ore inventory decreased [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: JM2601 coking coal futures closed at 1,286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.2%), and J2601 coke futures closed at 1,777 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan (- 0.5%). Spot prices and various spreads changed [18] - **Macro - Industry News**: On October 29, 2025, it was announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, on October 30 [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) for both coke and coking coal [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: For different log contracts, prices, trading volumes, and open interests had different changes. Spot prices of various log types in different regions were mostly stable or had small declines [21] - **Macro - Industry News**: On October 29, 2025, it was announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, on October 30 [23] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market lacks clear directional drivers. The supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals limit the upside potential of prices. The market is expected to continue in a weak and fluctuating pattern. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction and whether industry losses will trigger more production cuts [9][38]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling call options opportunistically [39]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 ranged from 1,221 to 1,260 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. As of the afternoon close on November 31, 2025, the contract fell 4 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.33%, closing at 1,225 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply - As of October 30, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 757,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons or 2.29%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.89%, up 1.95% from the previous week [7][10]. Inventory - As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous Monday. Light soda ash inventory was 815,600 tons, up 15,200 tons week - on - week, while heavy soda ash inventory was 886,400 tons, down 5,600 tons week - on - week [8][15]. 3. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Situation Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 30, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 757,600 tons, with light soda ash production at 337,800 tons (up 7,200 tons week - on - week) and heavy soda ash production at 419,700 tons (up 9,800 tons week - on - week). - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.89%, with the ammonia - soda process at 91.09% (unchanged week - on - week), the co - production process at 77.90% (up 1.67% week - on - week), and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons at 90.27% (up 2.29% week - on - week) [10][12]. Inventory Analysis - As of October 30, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,600 tons or 0.57%. Light soda ash inventory increased by 15,200 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 5,600 tons [15]. Shipment Analysis - On October 30, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 757,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.53%. The overall shipment rate was 100.01%, up 0.23 percentage points week - on - week [16]. Profit Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 41.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.30 yuan/ton. - As of October 30, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process was - 165 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [20][24]. 4. Downstream Industry Situation - As of October 30, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, unchanged from the 23rd. From the 24th to the 30th, the float glass production was 1.1289 million tons, unchanged week - on - week but a year - on - year increase of 1.28%. - As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.337 million weight boxes or 3.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.99%. The inventory days were 28.3 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous period [27][31]. 5. Spot Market Situation - The prices of most products in the domestic soda ash market remained stable, with only a few showing changes. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased by 8 yuan/ton or 1.05% to 770 yuan/ton, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 36 yuan/ton or 1.65% to 2,219 yuan/ton. The price of float glass decreased by 20 yuan/ton or 1.68% to 1,167 yuan/ton [37]. 6. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main soda ash futures contract showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The core contradiction of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand" in the fundamentals remained prominent. - Supply pressure increased further, with weekly production and capacity utilization rising. Demand improvement was limited, and new orders were insufficient. - Inventory pressure was not relieved, with the total inventory of manufacturers continuing to accumulate, especially the inventory of light soda ash. - Profit conditions deteriorated further, with both the ammonia - soda and co - production processes in deeper losses. Cost support was not enough to reverse the supply - demand pattern [38].