Report Overview - The report focuses on the container shipping index (European routes) as of September 11, 2025, providing an analysis of its market trends, fundamental data, and investment strategies [1]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The container shipping index (European routes) is in a volatile market. The 2510 contract is expected to show narrow - range fluctuations, the 2512 contract should be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset, and the 2602 contract may not necessarily be at a discount to the 12 contract [1][12][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - EC2510 closed at 1,267.4 points, down 0.42%, with an increase of 114 positions; EC2512 closed at 1,674.0 points, down 0.02%, with an increase of 729 positions; EC2602 closed at 1,524.0 points, up 0.14% [1]. 3.2 Freight Index Data - SCFIS European route index was 1,566.46 points, down 11.7% week - on - week; SCFIS US West route index was 980.48 points, down 3.3% week - on - week. SCFI European route was $1,315/TEU, down 11.2% bi - weekly; SCFI US West route was $2,189/FEU, up 13.8% bi - weekly [1]. 3.3 Spot Freight Rates - In week 38, spot freight rates further declined, with the central value around $1,700/FEU. It is conservatively estimated that the cumulative decline in weeks 39 and 40 will be $100/FEU, and the central value may fall to around $1,600/FEU [13]. 3.4 Supply - Side Fundamentals - In October, the weekly average capacity was slightly revised down from 27.6 to 26.7 TEU/week, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.1%. In November, without considering undetermined voyages, the weekly average capacity is currently 30.2 TEU/week [14]. 3.5 Contract Analysis - For the 2510 contract, it may mainly reflect the freight quotes from weeks 40 - 42, and is expected to show narrow - range fluctuations. For the 2512 contract, it should be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset. For the 2602 contract, it may not necessarily be at a discount to the 12 contract [15]. 3.6 Investment Strategy - This week, take profit on the 2510 contract on dips. In the medium - to - long - term, consider going long on the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads on dips [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish Continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously Bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish Consolidation [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish Consolidation [3] 2. Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors slightly boost oil prices, but supply surplus remains the core driver, and oil prices are trending downward. [1][5][6] - LPG: The cost side is weak, and there is pressure on the upside of liquefied gas. [1][9] - L: Social inventory is slightly decreasing, and it is in a bearish consolidation phase. [1][15] - PP: Spot prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and it is in a bearish consolidation phase. [1][20] - PVC: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and it is in a weak bottom - grinding phase. [1][25] - PX: The expectation of tight supply - demand balance is loosening, and the support from crude oil is weakening, with a cautious bearish view. [1][30] - PTA: The cost support is weakening while the supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a cautious bearish view. [2][33] - Ethylene Glycol: The cost support is weakening while the supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a cautious bearish view. [2][37] - Methanol: Supply - demand is loose, and there is port inventory accumulation. Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on the 01 contract at low prices. [2][41] - Urea: The fundamentals remain weak, and the Indian tender price is lower than expected. Hold short positions cautiously. [2][44] - Asphalt: High valuation and a weak cost side, maintaining a bearish view. [3] - Glass: In some regions, the sales of original sheets have improved, and spot prices have increased, but terminal demand is insufficient, in a bearish consolidation phase. [3] - Soda Ash: The spot price in Shahe has decreased, and the basis has weakened. It is in a bearish consolidation phase. [3] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded and adjusted. WTI decreased by 0.32%, Brent increased by 0.56%, and SC increased by 1.51%. [5] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors slightly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ plans to increase production in October, and the end of the US crude oil consumption season has led to a decrease in demand - side support. [6][7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [470 - 490] for SC. [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 9, the PG main contract closed at 4413 yuan/ton, up 0.55% month - on - month. [11] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of liquefied gas itself is not significant, and its price is mainly pegged to the cost - side oil price. The cost side still has room to decline. [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG. [13] L - **Market Review**: The L01 contract closed at 7251 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. [16] - **Basic Logic**: North China's spot prices have slightly increased, and the basis has strengthened. Social inventory is slightly decreasing, and the demand side is strengthening. [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support at the integer - level mark and try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7300] for L. [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP01 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. [21] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices are flat, and the market is fluctuating narrowly. Supply is expected to decrease this week, while demand is increasing. [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] for PP. [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V01 contract closed at 4847 yuan/ton, down 0.9%. [26] - **Basic Logic**: The market is in a contango structure, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing short positions due to low - valuation support. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] for PVC. [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6781 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan/ton. [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing their loads, while demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to loosen. [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6810] for PX511. [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PTA spot price in East China was 4585 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. [34] - **Basic Logic**: Recent device maintenance has led to a significant decline in operating loads. Future new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply - side pressure. Demand is showing signs of recovery. [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the opportunity to expand PTA processing fees. Focus on the range of [4660 - 4710] for TA01. [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. [38] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing their loads, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is improving, but the cost side is weak. [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to go short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4290 - 4340] for EG01. [40] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2310 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton. [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening. [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2370 - 2400] for MA01. [43] Urea - **Market Review**: The URO1 contract closed at 1713 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. The Indian tender price is lower than expected. [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Urea fluctuates within a range. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on the 01 contract at high prices. [44] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: High valuation and a weak cost side, with an overall bearish view. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [3] Glass - **Basic Logic**: In some regions, the sales of original sheets have improved, but terminal demand is insufficient. Supply is under pressure. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see as the market fluctuates at a low level. [3] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in Shahe has decreased, and the basis has weakened. Supply - demand remains loose. [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rebounds as the supply - demand remains in a loose pattern. [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, implying a bias towards a short - term directional movement but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Views - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, with the previously recommended combination strategy of shorting crude oil and holding out - of - the - money call options to be continued [2] - The FU2601 contract of fuel oil shows a sideways consolidation pattern, and the decline in warehouse receipts provides some support for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil [3] - The asphalt price has a clear support below, and the long positions laid out at the beginning of the week are advised to be held [4] - The international LPG market remains strong, and the domestic market is mainly in a sideways movement due to the support from import costs and the suppression of high - volume warehouse receipts on the futures market [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell, with the SC10 contract up 0.58%. The market supply - demand surplus will increase marginally, and the pressure will be concentrated from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year. The bearish trend continues, and a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The FU2601 contract is in a sideways consolidation range of 2780 - 2795 yuan/ton. The LU2511 contract rose to 3400 yuan/ton and then pulled back. The continuous decline in warehouse receipts provides support for both [3] Asphalt - The asphalt price followed the crude oil to rise slightly at the end of the session. The shipment volume slowed down in the first week of September, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The overall inventory level is flat compared to the previous period, and long positions are advised to be held [4] LPG - The international LPG market is strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. The domestic market is supported by import costs, but the high - volume warehouse receipts on the futures market limit the upward momentum, and it mainly moves sideways [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean/Meal**: The decline of US soybeans reflects the impact of demand, but the downside space is limited. Brazilian soybeans also have limited deep - decline space. In China, there is still supply pressure and inventory pressure on soybean meal [2][4][6]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the global sugar market is expected to enter a stockpiling stage, and prices are expected to rebound in the short - term after falling to a low level. In the domestic market, although domestic sugar inventory is low, a large amount of imported sugar may put some pressure on prices [11]. - **Oils and Fats**: Overnight, US soybean oil fell, and the domestic oil market followed the weakness. Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase production and stockpile in August, while Indonesian inventory is low. US soybeans have a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of stockpiling, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory [19]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures are falling, but there is still room for rebound. In China, the supply of corn is still relatively short, and the spot price of corn may continue to fall [23][28]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply pressure of pigs has decreased, but due to the relatively high inventory and high slaughter weight, there is still some pressure on prices [34]. - **Peanuts**: The supply of peanuts is still small, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [38]. - **Eggs**: The supply - side pressure has been alleviated, but the over - supply pattern has not changed. The demand is expected to increase slightly before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day [46]. - **Apples**: The 10 - month contract of apples may fall in the short - term, but the decline space is limited. The market may focus on the excellent fruit rate [55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: As new cotton enters the acquisition stage, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is expected to have a limited impact on the market [59]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1048.5 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.1% to 292 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: The estimated US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.271 billion bushels, and the estimated yield is 53.3 bushels/acre. As of September 7, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 2.44 million tons, and soybean meal imports were 3.63 million tons. In Argentina, there may be a new political crisis. As of September 5, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3039 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.76% [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long positions can be arranged at low prices for distant - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal. Expand the MRM05 spread. Buy call options [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar both rose [8]. - **Related Information**: In the first week of September, Brazil exported 769,000 tons of sugar and molasses. The 2025/26 German beet refined sugar production is expected to decrease by 4.9% to 4.4 million tons. Domestic processing sugar prices are stable with a slight decline [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [12][13][15]. Oils and Fats - **Market Conditions**: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil both fell [15]. - **Related Information**: As of August 31, 209,033 oil palm small farmers in Malaysia obtained MSPO certification. The estimated US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.271 billion bushels, and the estimated ending inventory is 288 million bushels. Ukraine's rapeseed exports may be suspended for at least a week. Canada's rapeseed inventory decreased, while exports increased [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the callback and then try to go long in batches. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Conditions**: CBOT corn futures fell [23]. - **Related Information**: The main reason for the decline is the start of the US corn harvest and traders' position - closing before the USDA monthly report. The US corn main - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the next 6 - 10 days. As of September 7, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 68%, and the harvest rate was 4%. The North Port acquisition price is stable, while the North China spot price is falling [24][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the 12 - month US corn contract on dips. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for the 01 corn contract. Expand the spread between 11 - month corn and starch lightly [29][30]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Pig prices are generally stable to declining, and the prices of piglets and sows are falling [33][34]. - **Related Information**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both decreased, and the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.2% [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on the near - month contracts on rallies. Reverse - arbitrage the LH15 contract. Buy call options for distant - month contracts [35]. Peanuts - **Market Conditions**: The average price of national peanut kernels is stable with a slight increase, the operating rate of oil mills is low, and the prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable [36][37]. - **Related Information**: As of September 4, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises decreased [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 11 - month and 01 - month peanut contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Try to go long on the 05 - month peanut contract lightly. Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [39][41]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas and main sales areas rose. The national mainstream egg prices are stable with some increases [43][44]. - **Related Information**: In August, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 3% in the week of August 28. The production and circulation inventories decreased [45][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report. Apples - **Market Conditions**: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the export volume increased. The spot price is stable [49][50]. - **Related Information**: The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia decreased by 0.1 yuan/jin compared with last week [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [55]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Conditions**: ICE US cotton rose [56]. - **Related Information**: In August, China's textile and clothing exports decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year. As of September 8, the ICE deliverable No. 2 cotton contract inventory remained unchanged. As of September 6, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 86.9% [57][58]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly weakly. Go short on rallies. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [59].

| | | 甲醇日评20250910: 低位震荡,关注低多机会 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/9/9 | 2025/9/8 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对目) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2398.00 | 2408.00 | -10.00 | -0.42% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2391.00 | 2402.00 | -11.00 | -0.46% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2247.00 | 2248.00 | -1.00 | -0.04% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2275.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2360.00 | 2345.00 | 15.00 | 0.64% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2265.00 | 10.00 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 铁水产量环比降幅较大，但后期存在较快回升的预期。螺纹产量及表需均小幅下降，库 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 存继续增加。目前处于验证需求成色阶段，房地产及基建仍然偏弱，或拖累行情中期表 | | | | 现。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量、表需环比下降，库存继续增加，基本面相对平稳。钢材供需整体有宽松趋势， | | ★ | | 阶段性利多有限，钢材偏弱基本面下中期仍有回落风险。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 铁水产量受阅兵影响环比明显减量，关注铁水修复情况。港口累库，钢厂短期补库需求 | | ★ | | 不强。外矿发到货双降，降幅较大，基本面好转。矿价震荡偏强。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭第一轮提降落地。目前焦化利润尚可，后期产量预计会逐步恢复。铁水产量环比下 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 降，后期亦有回升预期。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，短期区间运行。 | | | | 前期受阅兵影响，焦煤产量环比明显回落，后期预期逐渐回升。蒙煤通关量处于较高水 | | 焦煤 | 谨慎看空 | 平，进口量高位运行。铁 ...

2025 年 9 月 8 日 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2601 | 1094. 5 | -11.5 | -1.0% | | 期货价格 | | J2601 | 1581.5 | -12.5 | -0.8% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2601 | 1185403 | 733627 | -12138 | | | | J2601 | 23549 | 46827 | 423 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1430 | 1450 | -20 | | | 焦煤 | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1176 | 1176 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 ...

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 预期现实博弈，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 反内卷消息扰动提振市场情绪，黑色金属震荡上行，而铁矿石供需格局并未好转，矿石终端消耗 大幅回落，且钢厂利润不断收缩，需求利好效应趋弱，相对利好则是假期补库预期。与此同时，国内 港口到货迎来回升，且海外矿商发运高位攀升，即便内矿生产受限，矿石供应有所增加。综上，矿石 需求开始趋弱 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a slightly bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the trading floor, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Report's Core View - The international oil price dropped overnight, and the SC11 contract fell 0.56% during the day. The increase in US EIA crude oil inventory last week and potential OPEC+ production increase may lead to a bearish supply-demand situation. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract and use out-of-the-money call options for protection [2] - Fuel oil futures continued to decline. The supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil eased, and high-sulfur fuel oil should be watched for potential geopolitical premium [3] - The asphalt futures price continued to decline, breaking through the previous support level. The supply-demand situation is expected to tighten marginally, and it's advisable to consider a long crack spread strategy [4] - The 9 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas remained stable. After the end of the off - season, it showed some resilience. The short - term futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, and the SC11 contract dropped 0.56% during the day. US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2415000 barrels last week. With potential OPEC+ production increase and demand weakening after the peak season, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil futures continued to decline. The third batch of quotas was issued later than expected. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) eased, with a significant drop in warehouse receipts today. The fundamental of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) lacks obvious drivers, but geopolitical conflicts in supply countries may bring premium [3] Asphalt - The asphalt futures price continued to decline, breaking through the previous support level of 3450 yuan/ton. The spot price decline was limited, and the basis continued to rise. The factory inventory removal was weak, and the social inventory continued to decline. Consider a long crack spread strategy [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The 9 - month CP remained stable. After the end of the gas off - season, it showed resilience. International market has a good bottom support due to strong East Asian chemical demand. The import cost and domestic demand increased, and the civil gas price was adjusted upwards. The short - term futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both increased, with soda ash futures rising by 0.46% and glass futures by 0.59%. The soda ash futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising, while the glass futures also followed a similar pattern. Looking ahead, soda ash is expected to have a loose supply and stable demand, with prices remaining under pressure, but there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. For glass, the market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. If there is a domestic follow - up interest rate cut, the market may see growth [6]. - For the SA2601 contract, it is recommended to trade in the range of 1280 - 1360, with stop - loss set at 1240 - 1380. For the FG2601 contract, it is advised to operate in the range of 1120 - 1220, with stop - loss at 1100 - 1240 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, soda ash futures first fell and then rose. The increase in soda ash production news in the first half of the week led to a sharp decline, but on Friday, the price increased significantly due to the sharp rise in glass prices. Glass futures also showed a similar trend, falling in the first half of the week due to poor fundamentals and recovering losses on Friday driven by the rise in coking coal prices and bullish market sentiment [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, the domestic operating rate and production have increased. However, due to the decline in profits, the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to decline, and production may slow down. The number of cold - repaired glass production lines has decreased by one, and the overall production remains at a low level. The profit of the glass industry continues to decline due to weak demand and falling spot prices. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises has decreased this week due to replenishment by major traders, but the de - stocking process is still volatile. For glass, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream deep - processing orders have increased slightly, with procurement mainly for rigid demand. The overall inventory has started to accumulate again, but the de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The marginal growth of the automobile industry has weakened, and the probability of an interest rate cut is increasing [6]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For the SA2601 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1280 - 1360, with stop - loss set at 1240 - 1380. For the FG2601 contract, it is advised to operate in the range of 1120 - 1220, with stop - loss at 1100 - 1240 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both closed higher [8]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of soda ash has decreased this week, and the basis has strengthened. As of September 4, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market was reported at 1195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the basis was reported at - 82 yuan/ton. The spot price of glass has weakened, and the basis has strengthened, and it is expected to strengthen further in the future. As of September 4, 2025, the price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was reported at 1056 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton, and the basis was reported at - 83 yuan/ton [12][16]. - **Price Spread**: The price spread between soda ash and glass has weakened this week, and it is expected to strengthen next week. As of September 4, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was reported at 138 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: This week, the domestic operating rate and production of soda ash have increased. As of September 4, 2025, the national operating rate of soda ash was reported at 86.52%, a month - on - month increase of 3.94%, and the national weekly production of soda ash was reported at 75.17 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.53%. However, the profit of soda ash has decreased, and the cost has increased. It is expected that the production capacity of soda ash will decline next week [24][29][31]. - **Glass Production**: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines has decreased by one, and the overall production remains unchanged. There are signs of rigid - demand production, and the profit continues to decline. It is expected that the production will remain at a low level next week. There are signs of production line resumption, and the production is expected to increase slightly next week, but the increase will be limited [31][36]. - **Profit Analysis**: As of September 4, 2025, the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash using the joint - alkali process in China was - 48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 51 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1687 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was - 51 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 31 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1287 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9 yuan/ton. The profit of glass enterprises has also decreased, mainly due to the decline in spot prices [34]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises has decreased this week, mainly due to replenishment by major traders. The inventory of glass enterprises has increased, and it is expected that the de - stocking speed will slow down next week. As of September 4, 2025, the enterprise inventory of soda ash was 182.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%, and the total inventory of glass was 63.05 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.77% [47][51]. - **Downstream Demand**: The deep - processing orders of domestic glass downstream have increased slightly, but the demand remains low. As of August 15, 2025, the average number of order days for national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days [53].