Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are following the increase of raw materials in the short term, with short - fiber processing fees being compressed [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: - Futures prices of short - fiber contracts (2601, 2602, 2603) increased, with short - fiber 2601 rising from 6180 to 6286, short - fiber 2602 from 6172 to 6292, and short - fiber 2603 from 6108 to 6276 [1]. - Spreads between contracts (PF01 - 02, PF02 - 03) changed, with PF01 - 02 dropping from 8 to - 6 and PF02 - 03 decreasing by 48 [1]. - The short - fiber主力基差 decreased from 108 to 38, the主力持仓 volume decreased from 141087 to 133093, and the主力 trading volume decreased from 220316 to 219076 [1]. - The short - fiber East China spot price increased from 6280 to 6330, and the short - fiber production and sales rate rose from 72% to 92% [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: - Futures prices of bottle - chip contracts (2601, 2602, 2603) increased, with bottle - chip 2601 rising from 5610 to 5672, bottle - chip 2602 from 5700 to 5766, and bottle - chip 2603 from 5698 to 5772 [1]. - Spreads between contracts (PR01 - 02, PR02 - 03) changed, with PR01 - 02 dropping from - 90 to - 94 and PR02 - 03 decreasing by 10 [1]. - The bottle - chip主力基差 decreased from - 21 to - 52, the主力持仓 volume increased from 37457 to 37920, and the主力 trading volume increased from 37859 to 63494 [1]. - The bottle - chip East China spot price increased from 5675 to 5720, and the bottle - chip South China spot price increased from 5700 to 5780 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - **Short - fiber**: Raw material futures rose significantly, and short - fiber spot factories mostly raised prices by about 150 yuan/ton. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved, with an average production and sales rate of 92% by 3:00 pm [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: Upstream raw material futures rose strongly, and polyester bottle - chip factories mostly raised their quotes by 50 - 100 yuan. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market was average, and 12 - 2 month orders were mostly traded at 5700 - 5740 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the report day [2].

电解铝 期货品种周报 2025.12.22-12.26 中线行情分析 偏强震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 电解铝行业维持高利润状态，叠加新增产能稳步释放，带动年底国内电解铝 供应小幅增长，虽当前处于传统消费淡季，但汽车、电力、电子等行业消费 韧性十足，未出现超季节性走弱，整体而言，海外减产风险以及宏观情绪转 暖主导盘面，但需求层面压力仍在，预计短期内铝价维持高位震荡走势。 2 持多待涨。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 短线多单建议离场观望，中期多单继续持有。 上周策略回顾 短线多单建议离场观望，中期多单继续持有。 本周策略建议 持有足量现货库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 【总体观点】 | | 2025年12月第3周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 随着几内亚某大型矿山于12月中旬正式复产，后续几内亚进口矿石供应宽松。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截止12月19日，国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨，运行产能约9470万吨（上周9610万吨），产能利用 | | | 率约85%，运行产能自11月底来小幅回落。据Mysteel调研统计，2026年氧化铝新投产能约1440万吨/年， | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the overall upward trend of butadiene rubber has slowed down and gradually entered a volatile pattern. The previous continuous rise of butadiene rubber was mainly due to the improvement of butadiene fundamentals and strong expectations for the far - month. However, this week, due to the marginal weakening of the overall fundamental data of butadiene and butadiene rubber, coupled with the large premium of futures over spot, the speculative nature of futures prices has weakened and prices have corrected. Butadiene currently presents a pattern of neutral reality and strong expectations, and the short - term fundamentals of butadiene are neutral. The visible inventory of butadiene rubber has increased this week, and its fundamentals have weakened. Overall, the processing profit of butadiene rubber may be compressed, and the futures price has corrected under the high - premium pattern. But due to the strong expectations of butadiene still bringing some speculative nature, it has entered a volatile pattern in the short term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber main contract (02 contract), the daily closing price was 11,020 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 127,276 lots (down 158 lots), the open interest was 101,995 lots (up 619 lots), and the trading value was 703,480 ten - thousand yuan (down 2,972 ten - thousand yuan) [1] Spread Data - The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 170 (down 80 from the previous day), and the monthly spread of BR01 - BR05 was - 80 (up 45 from the previous day) [1] Spot Market - For butadiene rubber prices, the prices of North China, East China, South China (private) and Shandong market (delivery product) decreased by 0 - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. For styrene - butadiene rubber prices, the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) remained unchanged. For butadiene prices, the mainstream prices in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Indicators - The butadiene rubber operating rate was 76.7608%, the theoretical full cost was 10,534 yuan/ton, and the profit was 366 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged from the previous day [1] 2. Industry News - As of December 17, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.45%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises with cargo rights also increased [2] - As of December 17, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 36,000 tons, a slight increase of 100 tons from the previous period. Although the inventory change was not significant this period, there were still some trade inventories and the expectation of ocean - going vessel arrivals, so attention should be paid to the phased inventory changes [2][3]

2025 年 12 月 22 日 LPG：短期趋势偏弱 丙烯：供减需增预期，短期走势存支撑 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | PG2601 | 4,218 | -0.26% | 4,237 | 0.45% | | | PG2602 | 4,099 | -0.24% | 4,092 | -0.17% | | | PL2601 | 5,926 | -0.85% | 5,911 | -0.25% | | | PL2602 | 5,715 | -1.28% | 5,727 | 0.21% | | | PL2603 | 5,695 | -1.30% | 5,692 | -0.05% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2601 | 8,225 | -9228 | 11,005 | -2358 | | | P ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Views PTA - The supply - demand pattern of PTA is expected to be acceptable in the near term, as some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, driving the continuous strengthening of the spot basis. The futures market has also risen significantly following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will show a strong - side fluctuation. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream loads [5]. MEG - Last week, the unloading of ethylene glycol at ports was smooth, and with some domestic trade goods being shipped into storage, it is expected that the visible inventory will still rise moderately early next week. Fundamentally, the medium - and long - term inventory accumulation expectation for ethylene glycol still exists, and the available spot in the market will continue to be abundant. It will take time to restore market confidence. Next week is the delivery node, so attention should be paid to the replenishment rhythm of traders in the market. In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol will mainly be sorted out at a low level, and attention should be paid to the impact of cost and device news [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No specific review content was found in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, December cargo was traded around 01 - 10 or at a 70 - point discount to 05, with individual transactions slightly higher at a 55 - point discount to 05, and the price negotiation range was 4680 - 4815. January cargo was traded around 05 - 60 to 70 or at the 01 level. Cargo for mid - to - late February was traded around 05 - 55. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 10 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4765, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 117, indicating a premium on the futures market [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.76 days, a decrease of 0.1 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net position is long, changing from short to long [5]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned in the core view [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated weakly, and the market buying sentiment was average. The ethylene glycol futures market showed a weak downward trend, and the follow - up of buyers in the market was average. The mainstream negotiation and transaction of next - week's spot were at a discount of 15 - 18 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Near the end of the session, the ethylene glycol spot price further weakened to around 3600 yuan/ton. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol external market weakened slightly, and the negotiation was rather stalemate. In the morning, the negotiation and transaction of December - end and January - shipped goods were around 430 - 435 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, as the ethylene glycol futures market weakened, the negotiation center of mid - January shipped goods fell to around 428 - 430 US dollars/ton. The negotiation ranges for domestic and external market transactions were 3600 - 3665 yuan/ton and 426 - 438 US dollars/ton respectively [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3625, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 113, indicating a premium on the futures market [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 84.4 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position is short, with a reduction in short positions [7]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned in the core view [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - The report mentions that the short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, so attention should be paid to the cost side. For a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]. 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA - The PTA supply - demand balance sheet shows data on PTA production capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. MEG - The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet shows data on ethylene glycol production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Price data for various products on December 19 and 18, 2025, including spot prices of naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as futures prices and basis, and profit data for different production methods are provided [13]. - There are also multiple charts showing historical data on prices, production margins, inventory, and operating rates of PTA, MEG, PET bottle chips, polyester fibers, etc., from 2019 - 2025 [14][17][20] etc.

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 市场氛围好转，焦煤低位反弹 | | 焦炭 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 下游冬储预期支撑，焦炭期货低 位反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 12 月 19 日当周，全 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly hotspots preview, including important economic data releases and policy events, and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market [2][3]. Key Events and Forecasts December 22 - China's central bank will announce the December 2025 Loan Prime Rate (LPR). The expected 1 - year LPR is 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR is 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous values [3]. December 23 - The US Department of Commerce will release the initial value of Q3 2025 GDP. The expected real GDP annualized quarterly rate is 3.2%, compared to 3.8% in Q2. A slightly lower Q3 rate may mildly boost precious metal futures prices but suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices [4]. - The US Department of Commerce will release the initial value of November durable goods orders. The expected month - on - month rate is - 1.4%, lower than the previous value of 0.5%. A lower value may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but mildly boost precious metal futures prices [5]. - The Fed will release November industrial output. The expected month - on - month rate is 0.1%, the same as the previous value [7]. - The US Conference Board will release the December consumer confidence index. The expected value is 91.7, higher than the previous value of 88.7. A higher value may suppress precious metal futures prices but boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices [8]. December 24 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the mid - December market prices of important production materials in the circulation field, covering 9 categories and 50 products [9]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20. The expected number is 215,000, lower than the previous value of 224,000. A slightly lower number may mildly boost non - precious industrial product futures prices but suppress precious metal futures prices [10]. - The US EIA will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending December 19. The expected decline is 1.5 million barrels, more than the previous decline of 1.274 million barrels. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures prices [11]. December 25 - There will be 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The central bank is expected to conduct an increased - volume roll - over of MLF at 09:25 [12]. December 27 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to November and for November alone. From January to October, the profits decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while in October, they increased by 1.9% year - on - year [13].

2025年12月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，整体震荡探底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或低位震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 棉花：期价震荡偏强，现货交投偏淡20251222 | 7 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 9 | | 生猪：现货弱势显现 | 10 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 22 日 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，整体震荡探底 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,292 | -0.91% | 8,276 | -0.19% | | | ...

2025年12月21日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 工业硅：逢高布空思路，关注供应扰动 | 12 | | 多晶硅：预计盘面宽幅震荡态势 | 12 | | 碳酸锂：大厂复产预期延后，短期高位运行 | 21 | | 棕榈油：高产压力未释放完毕，持续磨底 | 29 | | 豆油：美豆压力仍大，豆油震荡偏弱运行 | 29 | | 豆粕：低位震荡，等待新消息指引 | 35 | | 豆一：现货偏强，盘面震荡 | 35 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 40 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注需求20251221 | 46 | | 生猪：旺季不旺，缺猪逻辑证伪 | 53 | | 花生：关注现货 | 59 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z00214 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The overall futures market experienced fluctuations with a divergence in performance across sectors during the week of December 15 to December 19, with energy and chemical sectors performing well while agricultural products generally declined [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil decreased by 0.50% and crude oil fell by 2.66%, while the black series saw coking coal increase by 9.02% and iron ore rise by 2.28% [1] - Precious metals maintained strength with gold rising by 1.01% and silver increasing by 3.26%, while agricultural products like eggs and palm oil saw declines of 1.58% and 3.19% respectively [1] Group 2: Polyester Market Dynamics - PX and PTA futures prices surged, reaching new highs not seen in three months, with PX hitting a peak since March and PTA surpassing 4900 yuan/ton [3] - The PTA market is experiencing a de-stocking trend, with a stable supply-demand balance and expectations of limited inventory pressure, supporting price increases [3][4] - The polyester industry maintained a weekly output of 155.72 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 86.9%, indicating stable supply conditions [3] Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices are fluctuating near historical highs, with optimistic market expectations for future price increases, as Goldman Sachs predicts a rise to 4900 USD/oz by 2026 [5] - Global gold supply increased by 3% year-on-year to 1313 tons in Q3, while demand surged, leading to upward pressure on gold prices [5] - The core factor influencing gold prices is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with recent rate cuts providing macro support for gold price increases [6] Group 4: U.S. Labor Market Insights - The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, and a total of 7.83 million unemployed individuals [8][9] - Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, primarily in healthcare, construction, and social assistance, while transportation and federal government jobs decreased [8] - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5%, indicating a return of residents to the labor market, although the unemployment rate still rose due to challenges in job placement [9] Group 5: Inflation Data and Economic Implications - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November, lower than the 3% increase in September, but the data is viewed cautiously due to issues arising from a government shutdown [10][11] - The core CPI also increased by 2.6%, but economists remain skeptical about the sustainability of this trend due to data collection challenges [10] - The Federal Reserve faces complex decisions balancing price stability and full employment, with future policy directions likely to be sensitive to upcoming economic data [11]