Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows that the central bank has introduced a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development. In the industrial aspect, hot - rolled coil production has increased for four consecutive weeks, terminal demand has risen simultaneously, and inventory has continued to decline. Although the cost - side support is weakening, the macro - atmosphere is positive, and the market is likely to continue range - bound consolidation. It is recommended to operate the HC2605 contract in the range of 3270 - 3350, while paying attention to market changes and risk control [7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary a. Market Review - As of the close on January 16, the futures price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3315 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton week - on - week). - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 308.36 million tons (+2.85 million tons week - on - week, - 11.83 million tons year - on - year). - Apparent demand increased to 314.16 million tons (+5.82 million tons week - on - week, +11.6 million tons year - on - year). - Both factory and social inventories decreased. The total inventory was 362.33 million tons (-5.8 million tons week - on - week, +45.9 million tons year - on - year). - The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points from the same period last year [5]. b. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the Kansas City Fed President opposes immediate interest rate cuts, and the situation in Iran is being closely monitored. Domestically, the central bank has introduced a series of measures to support the economy, including interest rate cuts, increased loan quotas, and adjusted mortgage down - payment ratios, and there is still room for further reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore supply is stable, iron - water production has decreased slightly, and port inventories are accumulating. The price of iron ore may be range - bound. Coking coal and coke are showing signs of weakness, with increased production and inventory of coking coal and a high - level correction of coke futures prices. - **Technical - aspect**: The HC2605 contract is range - bound, with the daily K - line above multiple moving averages, and the support at the 3300 mark is noteworthy. The MACD indicator shows an upward rebound. - **Market view**: Considering the positive macro - environment and the current industrial situation, the market is expected to continue range - bound consolidation. It is recommended to operate the HC2605 contract in the range of 3270 - 3350 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price and Spread - This week, the HC2605 contract was range - bound and stronger than the HC2610 contract. On the 16th, the spread was - 21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [13]. b. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - This week, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the net short positions of the top 20 holders increased. On January 16, the warehouse receipt volume was 221,062 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81,525 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 in the futures contract was 13,134 lots, an increase of 6,227 lots from the previous week [20]. c. Spot Price - On January 16, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was weaker than the futures price. On the 16th, the basis was 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21 yuan/ton [24]. 3. Upstream Market a. Raw Material Prices - On January 16, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 869 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous week [31]. b. Ore Arrival and Shipment - From January 5th to 11th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3180.9 million tons, a decrease of 32.8 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2606.4 million tons, a decrease of 136.4 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3015.0 million tons, an increase of 190.3 million tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2920.4 million tons, an increase of 164.0 million tons week - on - week; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1469.2 million tons, a decrease of 43.7 million tons week - on - week [37]. c. Inventory - This week, the iron ore port inventory increased. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17288.70 million tons, an increase of 244.26 million tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume was 335.02 million tons, a decrease of 1.94 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and trade ore all increased. On January 15, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 149.31 million tons, an increase of 8.56 million tons week - on - week and 64.47 million tons year - on - year [41]. d. Coking Plant Situation - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and the coke inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.47%, a decrease of 0.14%. The daily coke output was 50.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons. The coke inventory was 40.61 million tons, a decrease of 3.56 million tons. The total coking coal inventory was 954.83 million tons, an increase of 42.87 million tons, and the available days of coking coal were 14.4 days, an increase of 0.67 days [45]. 4. Industry Situation a. Supply - side - **Steel Exports**: In December 2025, China's steel exports increased month - on - month. The export volume was 1130.1 million tons, an increase of 132.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 11901.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Production**: On January 16, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.66 percentage points from the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily hot - metal output was 228.01 million tons, a decrease of 1.49 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 3.53 million tons from the same period last year. On January 15, the weekly hot - rolled coil production of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 308.36 million tons, an increase of 2.85 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 11.83 million tons from the same period last year. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: On January 15, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils in 37 production enterprises was 76.53 million tons, a decrease of 0.79 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 2.32 million tons from the same period last year. The social inventory in 33 major cities was 285.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.01 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 48.22 million tons year - on - year. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 362.33 million tons, a decrease of 5.8 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 45.9 million tons year - on - year [58]. b. Downstream Demand - **Automobile Industry**: In December 2025, automobile production and sales were 329.6 million vehicles and 327.2 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2% respectively. In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3453.1 million vehicles and 3440 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. - **Household Appliance Industry**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 24536.1 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; the production of household refrigerators was 9934.2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%; and the production of household washing machines was 11309.7 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The SHFE fuel oil is expected to maintain a relatively strong short - term trend. After the technical breakthrough, the upward space is opened, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 2600 yuan/ton integer mark. The trend of crude oil prices remains a key influencing factor, and if it can stay above $65 per barrel, it will further boost the confidence of the fuel oil market [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 14, 2026, the opening price of the SHFE fuel oil main contract (FU.SHF) was 2496 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2599 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2492 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2586 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 6.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume on that day significantly increased to 1098156 lots, and the open interest was 244122 lots. The price showed a strong upward trend, and the closing price was close to the daily high, indicating that the bulls had an obvious advantage [2]. 3.2现货市场 - On January 14, 2026, the market price of fuel oil (domestic blended 180CST) in South China was 5008 yuan/ton, the market price of fuel oil (domestic 250) in East China was 4750 yuan/ton, and the market price of fuel oil (residual oil) in Northeast China was 3600 yuan/ton, with no obvious change from the previous day. The closing price of the fuel oil main contract on that day was 2586 yuan/ton, and the futures price was at a significant discount to the spot price, with a positive basis, reflecting a market structure where the current fuel oil spot market supply is tight and the futures market has a relatively loose expectation of future supply [4][5]. 3.3影响因素 - **产业资讯**: On the supply side, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries decreased, and the overall supply narrowed. On the demand side, there was a certain amount of inventory - building operations in the middle and lower reaches, and refinery inventories were running at a low level, supporting price increases. In addition, the ongoing tense situation in Iran and market concerns about possible reductions in crude oil exports further boosted the market's bullish sentiment [6]. - **技术分析**: The technical pattern in the past five trading days showed that the SHFE fuel oil price was in an oscillating upward trend. From January 8 to January 13, the price fluctuated in the range of 2418 - 2533 yuan/ton. On January 14, there was a breakthrough increase, with a single - day increase of 6.07%, forming a large positive line pattern, and the trading volume increased simultaneously, indicating strong upward momentum. The price successfully broke through the previous high, and the technical side showed obvious strong characteristics, confirming a short - term upward trend [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Methanol [doc id='1'] - Report Cycle: Daily Report - Date: 20260114 2. Key Points from the Report a. Futures Market - Methanol futures latest price is 2,288 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.15%. The current basis is at a historically low level. The basis has significantly narrowed in the last 5 trading days due to the relatively stronger futures price. The current basis is lower than the one - year average, indicating that the futures market has a slightly better supply - demand expectation for the future than the spot market, with limited arbitrage space and weak delivery intention [doc id='2'] b. Influencing Factors - **Supply Side** - Domestic methanol capacity utilization remains high, but some plants are under maintenance due to profit losses, resulting in a slight increase in production. Internationally, the situation in Iran is disturbing export expectations, potentially leading to a marginal contraction in global supply. Potential supply - disturbing factors include the geopolitical conflict in Iran (high impact) and domestic environmental protection restrictions (medium impact) [doc id='4'] - Recent import volume has increased due to the arrival of previously low - priced international goods, but future Iranian export expectations are decreasing, which may lead to a reduction in imports. Influencing factors include the Iranian geopolitical situation (high impact) and exchange - rate fluctuations (medium impact). China has a high import dependence, and international supply changes significantly affect domestic prices [doc id='5'] - **Demand Side** - The operating rate of downstream MTO plants remains low, mainly due to limited profits (narrowing ethylene - methanol spread), and weak demand restricts price increases. Other downstream products like formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have stable demand without significant growth. The marginal change in consumption is neutral to weak [doc id='4'] - **Inventory** - Port inventories are continuously increasing and are at a historically high level, mainly due to increased imports and weak demand. Production enterprises tend to reduce inventories, but traders have insufficient willingness to replenish stocks. High inventories suppress prices, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased, indicating a loose supply - demand pattern [doc id='5'] c. Market Outlook - In the short term, there is a game between the geopolitical disturbance in Iran on the supply side and high domestic inventories, and a game between weak demand and cost support on the demand side. Market hot - discussion topics include changes in Iranian exports, expectations of a rebound in MTO operating rates, and the rhythm of inventory reduction [doc id='7']

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For the nickel market, the tightening expectation of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has led to a significant increase in nickel prices. However, due to high short - term inventories and increased production of wet - process nickel, the price may show a "volatile upward + repeated game" trend. For the stainless - steel market, prices are likely to continue wide - range volatility. After the digestion of policy expectations, weak fundamentals in demand and high inventory pressure may lead to a price correction [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 15, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 143,000 yuan/ton and closed at 146,750 yuan/ton, a 4.08% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,738,133 (+667,439) lots, and the open interest was 101,617 (-8,358) lots. The price showed a pattern of "rushing high and then falling back + wide - range shock", driven by the expectation of tightened nickel ore quotas in Indonesia. The People's Bank of China's policy of lowering interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools also supported the non - ferrous metal sector [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was generally stable. Indonesia's official benchmark price for the second half of January was raised as expected, supporting market sentiment. Mines maintained firm quotes, but there were no new public tenders or transactions. The market was in an adaptation period after the price change, and trading was light [2]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 153,300 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were stable or slightly down. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 41,972 (1,700) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 285,282 (624) tons [2]. Strategy - If Indonesia's quota policy is strictly implemented, it will gradually affect nickel ore supply and support prices. In the short term, due to high inventories and increased production of wet - process nickel, prices may show a "volatile upward + repeated game" trend. The recommended strategy is to mainly conduct range operations and go long on dips [1][3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 15, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 13,985 yuan/ton and closed at 14,415 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 489,832 (+275,816) lots, and the open interest was 145,444 (-4,171) lots. The price showed a "rushing high and then falling back + wide - range shock" pattern, driven by the expectation of reduced nickel ore quotas in Indonesia. There was a game between cost - side drivers and weak demand and inventory pressure, and capital games intensified [3][5]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, spot prices continued to rise, but downstream acceptance was low, and trading was light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,350 (+450) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 14,300 (+500) yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 30.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,012.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - Prices may continue wide - range volatility. After the digestion of policy expectations, weak demand fundamentals and high inventory pressure may lead to a price correction. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, avoid chasing high prices, and consider going long on dips. The unilateral strategy is neutral [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, while BR is rated cautiously bullish [12] Core Viewpoints - The decline in the operating rate of downstream tire factories led to a weakening of spot prices mainly for Thai mixed rubber. This week, spot prices are expected to stabilize slightly with the rebound of the tire factory operating rate. Due to the overseas seasonal peak season, the pressure on domestic arrivals remains high, suppressing spot prices. In the off - season of downstream demand, domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The raw material preparation of overseas upstream factories may support raw material prices, and the cost - side support for rubber is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream tire factories [12] - The upstream Maoming Petrochemical plans to restart on January 24. Recently, there have been no changes in upstream facilities, and the supply this week remains stable. With the rise in the price of upstream butadiene, the profit of butadiene rubber has been compressed close to the break - even point, which may limit the short - term increase in private production, slightly easing the supply - side pressure. The operating rate of downstream tires has rebounded, but factory orders are average, and there are no bright spots in demand. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber is not obvious, and it is expected to follow the upstream butadiene raw material price and remain strong [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,995 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 12,190 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,920 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,845 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 11,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - Import: In December 2025, China imported a total of 953,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 18.4%. In 2025, China imported 8.525 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 16.7% [2] - Automobile production and sales: In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2%. In the whole year of 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%, setting a new historical high and ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million vehicles for the first time, setting a historical high [2][4] - Global natural rubber: The ANRPC's November 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in November would decrease by 2.6% to 147,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; the consumption would decrease by 1.4% to 124,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2% to 1.3375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.7% to 1.3932 million tons [2] - Tire exports: From January to November, China's automobile tire exports were 751,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the export value was 126.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [3] - Tire factory operation: Last week, the production scheduling of most domestic tire factories did not run normally, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The shipment was slow, and the inventory reduction rhythm was lower than expected. This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to recover. With the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises, the overall output will increase. Some enterprises will continue to control production flexibly to control finished product inventory, which will limit the recent increase [3] - Natural rubber export: In 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were 198,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% [5] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On January 15, 2026, the RU basis was - 295 yuan/ton (+15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 995 yuan/ton (-15), the NR basis was 602 yuan/ton (+49); the whole latex was 15,700 yuan/ton (-150), the mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (-150), the 3L spot was 16,100 yuan/ton (-100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,920 US dollars/ton (-15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (-50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,900 yuan/ton (-150) [6] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheets were 60.88 Thai baht/kg (+0.23), Thai latex was 58.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), Thai cup lump was 52.30 Thai baht/kg (-0.50), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.90 Thai baht/kg (+0.70) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.02% (+7.52%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.53% (+8.75%) [8] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 568,173 tons (+19,829), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,256,792 tons (+24,259), the RU futures inventory was 104,490 tons (+3,900), and the NR futures inventory was 56,952 tons (-1,007) [8] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On January 15, 2026, the BR basis was - 340 yuan/ton (+60), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,550 yuan/ton (+0), the price of butadiene rubber BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 11,950 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,550 yuan/ton (-50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 684 yuan/ton (-43) [9] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 79.68% (+0.54%) [10] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 8,040 tons (+1,270), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,900 tons (+550) [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The price of lead is currently in a state of shock, and the downstream of the lead variety may experience a slight increase in starting operations after the New Year's Day. However, if subsequent orders remain sluggish, some enterprises may consider reducing their loads or arranging holidays again. Meanwhile, the supply of the ore end remains relatively tight, and the processing fee is still at a low level. Therefore, the current lead price may oscillate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,900 yuan/ton. Operations can carry out buy and sell hedging as needed within the above range [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On January 15, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.33/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,375 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -200 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, 10,175 yuan/ton, and 10,375 yuan/ton respectively [2] Futures Market - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,455 yuan/ton and closed at 17,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 88,441 lots, an increase of 40,261 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position for the whole trading day was 78,429 lots, an increase of 7,992 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,680 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,425 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,585 yuan/ton and closed at 17,710 yuan/ton, a 0.88% increase compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [3] Inventory Situation - On January 15, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 33,000 tons, an increase of 6,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 15, the LME lead inventory was 211,400 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons compared to the previous trading day [4] Market Transactions - According to SMM news, the SMM1 lead price increased by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Smelters in Henan Province quoted prices at par with SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and the discount of traders' quotations widened to a discount of 220 - 180 yuan/ton for the SHFE 2602 contract for ex-factory; smelters in Hunan Province quoted prices at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton for SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders quoted prices at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton for SMM1 lead or a discount of 240 - 200 yuan/ton for the SHFE 2602 contract for ex-factory; holders in Yunnan Province quoted prices at a discount of 300 yuan/ton for SMM1 lead for ex-factory. The inventory digestion of lead ingots in smelters was slow. Some holders actively widened the discount to sell goods, but the downstream's enthusiasm for taking delivery was poor. Some holders continued to transfer lead ingots to social warehouses, and the overall trading in the spot market was relatively light [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The short - term situation in Iran has eased, causing the PTA price to decline. The potential risk of the oil price has not been completely eliminated, and the poor performance on the demand side has also dragged down the oil price. PX, PTA, PF, and PR are neutral in the short - term, and it is advisable to buy on dips for hedging after a pullback in the medium - term [1][2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The TA main contract spot basis is - 64 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +6 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 412 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +62 yuan/ton). The main contract's on - the - board processing fee is 333 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +2 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN was 337 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month change of - 1.00 US dollars/ton) in the previous last trading day. Due to the improvement of PX profitability, there is an expectation of further supply increase. Under the weakening fundamentals, the PXN has retreated to below 350 US dollars/ton, but the medium - term expectation of PX is still good [2] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Not elaborated in the content Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The near - end PTA plants have gradually resumed operation. The polyester maintenance plan has been announced, but the short - term decline is limited, and the inventory build - up pressure in January is not significant [2] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Not elaborated in the content Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester operating rate is 90.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.9%). The weaving load continues to decline. After the end of November, domestic orders have started to weaken rapidly, and the inventory of grey fabrics has also started to accumulate rapidly. The polyester load has not changed significantly, but the maintenance plans around the Spring Festival have been announced one after another, and the average monthly load in January is expected to drop to around 88% [2] PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is - 60 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 35 yuan/ton). Recently, direct - spun polyester staple fibers have been fluctuating and consolidating following the raw materials, with weak demand. The processing margin is maintained in the range of 900 - 1000. Some direct - spun polyester staple fiber plants have announced Spring Festival maintenance, but the current maintenance intensity is limited [2] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of bottle chips is 497 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 66 yuan/ton). Recently, there have been both maintenance and restart of bottle chips, and the load has not changed significantly. The overall inventory reduction before the Spring Festival has been smooth, and the market spot supply has slightly decreased. However, due to the rapid price increase in the early stage and the price remaining firm near the phased high, most downstream customers are on the sidelines, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. The processing fee of polyester bottle chips is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, in the short - term, the domestic market faces downstream and price - difference pressures with a risk of high - level correction. In the long - term, the upward space depends on policy implementation. The global market has short - term supply pressure and weak consumption, while the US cotton is in a low - valuation range [2] - For sugar, the 2025/26 global sugar market is in surplus. In the short - term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long - term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. The domestic market has increasing supply and inventory pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][6] - For pulp, overseas supply is disrupted, and there is a pre - Spring Festival restocking expectation. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,675 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,727 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,972 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] - India's 2025/26 cotton production increased by 130,000 tons, domestic demand by 170,000 tons, and exports decreased by 50,000 tons compared to last month's assessment. Compared with the previous year, the ending inventory increased by 800,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is on the market, with high supply pressure and weak consumption. The US cotton export is slow, and it is under short - term pressure. Domestically, the 2025/26 cotton production increased, the commercial inventory rose seasonally, the downstream orders declined, and the inventory increased. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possible inventory shortage at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. Be vigilant against high - level correction in the short term, and the long - term upward space depends on policy implementation [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,280 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - As of January 12, 2026, Punjab, India had crushed over 18.647 million tons of sugarcane, producing 1.712 million tons of sugar [3] Market Analysis - The global 2025/26 sugar market is in surplus. In the short term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar production is increasing, the supply is growing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. The price may oscillate at the bottom in the short - to - medium term, with limited downward space [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,436 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,515 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price turned weak. The price of imported softwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and the price of imported hardwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills had shutdown and maintenance. Demand: European port inventory decreased, and domestic port inventory was high but decreased slightly in December. The expanding paper production capacity will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, and the upward height depends on demand and inventory [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, the upward trend of oil prices has slowed down, and the focus will return to the fundamentals of pure benzene and styrene [3]. - The fundamentals of pure benzene have improved, with downstream开工率 bottoming out and rebounding. However, the port inventory is still at a historical high, and the sustainability of the improvement in downstream开工率 needs to be monitored [3]. - For styrene, the port inventory is still being depleted, the recovery rate of styrene开工率 is slow, and the downstream开工率 has increased, with the inventory pressure of ABS gradually alleviating [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts; also styrene's main basis and main contract, EB main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts [8][12][17] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures cover naphtha processing fee, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profit, and various spreads and profits related to pure benzene and styrene in different regions [19][22][29] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory and operating rate, and styrene's East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rate [35][38][40] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures display the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][53] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products of pure benzene [59][61][70] 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long and hedge EB2602 and BZ2603 at low prices [4] - Basis and inter - period: No strategy [4] - Cross - variety: No strategy [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Unilateral trading: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core View - The suspension of KZ and YP zinc delivery by the LME has limited impact. The brand's inventory in LME is only 600 tons and it's mainly for direct downstream sales, and delivery rights will be restored after procedure updates. Downstream consumption is entering the off - season, social inventory accumulation is slow, smelter raw material availability days are low, short - term TC is hard to rise, smelting comprehensive profit is difficult to repair, January production may be lower than expected, supply pressure is expected to decrease, zinc price has limited downside even with emotional pullbacks [4] Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium: -$14.32/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price: changed by 840 yuan/ton to 25410 yuan/ton, spot premium: 35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price: changed by 860 yuan/ton to 25410 yuan/ton, spot premium: 35 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price: changed by 840 yuan/ton to 25350 yuan/ton, spot premium: -25 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On 2026 - 01 - 15, SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24740 yuan/ton, closed at 25090 yuan/ton (up 500 yuan/ton from previous trading day), with trading volume of 502358 lots and positions of 142972 lots, intraday high: 25650 yuan/ton, intraday low: 24475 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of 2026 - 01 - 15, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory: 11.84 tons (down 0.05 tons from previous period). As of the same date, LME zinc inventory: 106700 tons (down 25 tons from previous trading day) [3]