1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the opening of the domestic export window may alleviate the expectation of tight supply. The Shanghai zinc futures are likely to lack a trending market in the short term and will probably maintain a range-bound oscillation [10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market - On October 29, 2025, the price of Shanghai zinc futures rose slightly against the trend, closing at 22,430 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 114,143 lots, and the open interest was 118,849 lots [2] 3.2 Futures Market - Variety Price - There are 12 contracts of Shanghai zinc futures today, with a total open interest of 210,352 lots, an increase of 1,255 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract zn2512 decreased by 1,844 lots [5] - Specific data for each contract, including the latest price, opening price, trading volume, open interest, daily increase in open interest, increase rate, rise and fall, lowest price, highest price, previous settlement price, and settlement price, are provided in the table [6] 3.3 Fundamental Situation - The total supply remains at a high level. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the month-on-month increase in consumption is not obvious. However, the production of galvanized coils and die-cast alloys is at the second-highest level in the same period in history, indicating that the absolute level of terminal demand is not low. The limited seasonal increase has led to the "peak season not being prosperous" [9] 3.4 Conclusion and Outlook - From a fundamental perspective, the opening of the domestic export window in the fourth quarter may alleviate the expectation of tight supply. The Shanghai zinc futures are likely to lack a trending market in the short term and will probably maintain a range-bound oscillation [10]

Report Overview - Research Variety: Caustic Soda - Report Cycle: Daily - Date: October 29, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The caustic soda futures price oscillated and consolidated today, while the spot price remained weakly stable. Most chlor-alkali enterprises are operating at normal loads, and the demand side remains lukewarm. The enthusiasm of downstream operators and traders to enter the market is not high. It is expected that the caustic soda futures market may maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the purchasing situation of major downstream industries and macro sentiment in the future [14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On October 29, 2025, the main caustic soda contract, Caustic Soda 2601, maintained an oscillating trend. The closing price was 2,361 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume increased by 34,000 lots compared to the previous day, with a total trading volume of 302,000 lots. The open interest was 134,000 lots, an increase of 1,952 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - Today, 12 caustic soda futures contracts oscillated and consolidated. The total open interest of the variety was 212,800 lots, an increase of 8,561 lots from the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract, Caustic Soda 2601, increased by 1,952 lots, and the capital inflow was 34.8 million yuan [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - Today, the put options of the main caustic soda contract SH601 performed stronger than the call options, with overall limited fluctuations [8] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong Province remained weak today. Most enterprises' inventories increased at the end of the month, and the sales were poor. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in southwestern Shandong was 790 - 830 yuan/ton, 750 - 810 yuan/ton in central and eastern Shandong, and 790 - 860 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in central and eastern Shandong was 1,210 - 1,330 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - The prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong Province were stable today, and the chlor-alkali profit was 583 yuan/ton [12] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - Today, the main caustic soda futures contract closed with a small positive line, maintaining a low-level oscillation. The price was suppressed by the 10-day moving average [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that PX will fluctuate narrowly, PTA will fluctuate weakly, and PR will fluctuate weakly (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: -1, PR view score: -1) [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On October 30, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $60.57 per barrel, up 0.15% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $65.00 per barrel, up 0.12% [1] - **Upstream Products**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha: CFR Japan was $572.63 per ton on October 30, 2025, up 0.26%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade): FOB South Korea was $670.00 per ton, down 1.69%; the spot price of p - xylene PX: CFR China Main Port was $817.00 per ton, down 0.12% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot**: The closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4,570 yuan per ton on October 30, 2025, down 1.42%; the settlement price was 4,608 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA outer market on October 29, 2025, was $611.00 per ton, up 1.66% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot**: The closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6,588 yuan per ton on October 30, 2025, down 0.96%; the settlement price was 6,632 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The PXN spread was $244.38 per ton, down 1.01%; the PX - MX spread was $147.00 per ton, up 7.69% [1] - **PR Futures and Spot**: The closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5,666 yuan per ton on October 30, 2025, down 1.05%; the settlement price was 5,708 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,720 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester bottle - grade chips on October 30, 2025, was 5,720 yuan per ton, down 0.35%. Other downstream CCFEI price indices remained unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rates of the PX in the polyester industry chain, PTA factories, polyester factories, and bottle - chip factories remained unchanged at 86.21%, 80.09%, 89.28%, and 73.31% respectively on October 30, 2025. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, up 0.22% [1] Production and Sales - On October 30, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 42.67%, down 6.20%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 42.82%, down 0.75%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 45.79%, up 8.73% [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (designed capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the company will start the new one and shut down the old one [2] Important News and Logic - **PX**: Overnight, due to positive prospects of China - US meetings and EIA inventory reports, oil prices rebounded, but after the end of the China - US meetings, the cost support for PX weakened. Recently, some PX factories' reforming devices are under maintenance or will be under maintenance, but the PX supply remains stable. Overseas devices are also operating stably. The call for anti - involution in the industry has increased, but it has limited impact on PX supply and demand in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The industrial meeting has no unplanned impact on the operating rate. In the morning, the decline in oil prices weakened the cost support for PTA, but the market hoped for active production cuts on the supply side. In the afternoon, the expectation of production cuts on the supply side was not fulfilled, and the PTA spot price followed the futures price down [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,700 - 5,830 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The market atmosphere was weak, and the downstream purchasing willingness was low. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the demand side has limited support for prices [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 30, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,155 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.94%. The position increased by 7,102 lots to 228,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot by Baichuan was 9,554 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 285 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 54,950 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.15%. The position increased by 7,622 lots to 126,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount narrowing to 490 yuan/ton [2]. - Due to production cuts in the southwest and silicon factories holding back supplies and raising prices, along with rising costs of silicon coal and electricity, the operating center of industrial silicon has moved upward. Due to the quota arrangement of the industry association, production cuts in silicon wafers after November are basically certain. Although the weekly production schedule of silicon wafers has increased significantly, the current high output is more likely to be a stage of concentrated production rush before the enterprise quota, and cannot be confirmed as a signal of actual demand improvement. The last week of October may be the stage of a production rush in the industry [2]. - Recently, the industry announced that 17 enterprises have signed for the production capacity storage platform. Coupled with the fact that downstream procurement has exceeded upstream output for the first time, it supports polysilicon to continue to operate strongly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 9,155 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 9,185 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of some grades such as 421 silicon in some regions increased slightly, and the spot discount narrowed from - 330 yuan/ton to - 285 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 72 to 47,410, the factory inventory increased by 400 to 262,500 tons, and the social inventory increased by 400 to 445,500 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the near - month contract decreased by 370 yuan/ton to 52,490 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot discount narrowed from - 860 yuan/ton to - 490 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 210 to 9,330, and the inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 2.4 to 28.26 tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,000 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][13]. 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][17]. 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, social warehouses, DMC, and polysilicon [23][27]. 2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [31][33][38]. 3. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of commodity research experience; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum and silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium and nickel research [40][41].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Polyolefins follow the trend of crude oil. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited. After a short - term rebound in the market, it may start to fluctuate in the future [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6729, 6968, and 7030 respectively, with price drops of - 41, - 45, and - 39 compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 214616, 21528, and 268 respectively. The January - May, May - September, and September - January spreads were - 62, - 36, and 98 respectively, with changes from the previous values [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 7066, 6651, and 6721 respectively, with price drops of - 34, - 44, and - 33 compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 237497, 32465, and 619 respectively. The January - May, May - September, and September - January spreads were - 70, - 8, and 78 respectively, with changes from the previous values [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and (Semi -) Products**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2221, 5940, 550, 5600, 6460, and 8700 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 7000 - 7500, 6900 - 7150, and 7200 - 7500 respectively; for PP, they were 6550 - 6650, 6450 - 6550, and 6500 - 6650 respectively, remaining the same as the previous values [2]. Market News - On Thursday (October 30), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.57 per barrel, up $0.09 or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.00 per barrel, up $0.08 or 0.12% from the previous trading day [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Bearish allocation [1] - **Coke**: Reduce long positions [1] - **Coking Coal**: Reduce long positions [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: The supply and demand of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both weak in the off-season. The decline in hot metal production weakens the support for raw materials. The Sino-US meeting has led to the implementation of tariff easing measures, and the steel market has limited contradictions [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The hot metal production has decreased significantly this week due to environmental protection control in Tangshan and maintenance of some loss-making steel mills. The static fundamentals are moderately weak, and the short-term ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][7]. - **Coke**: The second round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, and the third round is on the way. Although the profits of coke enterprises have slightly improved, they are still mostly in a loss state. The price increase faces obvious pressure [1][11]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal mine production and operating rate have decreased slightly. The supply may tighten in November, and the demand has weakened marginally. The short-term price increase faces pressure [1][15]. - **Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon**: The supply in the production areas remains high, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have become looser [1][19]. 3. Summary by Variety Steel Products - **Rebar**: Weekly production and apparent demand increased month-on-month, inventory continued to decline, and it conforms to the off-season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The mid-term will maintain range-bound operation, and the current position may face short-term weakness [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The apparent demand and production have both recovered, and the inventory has decreased slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years. The mid-term is range-bound, and there may be a short-term correction [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The hot metal production has decreased significantly, steel mills have reduced inventories, and ports have accumulated inventories. The static fundamentals are moderately weak [1][7]. - **Price Trend**: The short-term ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the exhaustion of short-term macro-positive factors [1][7]. Coke - **Market Conditions**: The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the third round is on the way. Coke enterprises' profits have slightly improved but are still mostly in a loss state. Steel mills' inventory is moderately low [1][11]. - **Price Trend**: The price increase faces obvious pressure, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [1][11][12]. Coking Coal - **Market Conditions**: Coal mine production and operating rate have decreased slightly, and the supply may tighten in November. The demand has weakened marginally [1][15]. - **Price Trend**: The short-term price increase faces pressure, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [1][15][16]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Silicomanganese**: The supply in the production area remains high, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased. The manganese ore price has slightly increased, and the short-term cost provides some support [1][19][20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply in the production area remains high, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased significantly. The fundamentals have become looser, and it is recommended to be bearish [1][19][20].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report anticipates that Zhengzhou sugar futures will mainly fluctuate weakly. The large current import volume of raw sugar, increasing pressure of imported sugar arrivals, and an import cost of 5300 - 5400 are expected to suppress the futures market. With the recent start of sugar - cane crushing in Yunnan and the upcoming concentrated start in Guangxi, new selling pressure may emerge. However, as the current futures price is close to the domestic sugar - making cost, the market may show a resistive decline before the new domestic sugar is launched [3]. 3. Key Data Summaries Domestic Spot Prices - In Nanning, Guangxi, the warehouse price per ton of sugar is 5780 yuan, with no change; in Kunming, Yunnan, it's 5720 yuan, unchanged; in Dali, Yunnan, it's 5565 yuan, also unchanged; and in Rizhao, Shandong, it's 5850 yuan, with no change [3]. Futures Prices - SR01 is at 5472 yuan, down 22 yuan; SR05 is at 5407 yuan, down 23 yuan; SR01 - 05 data is not provided; the difference between SR01 and SR05 is not given [3]. Exchange Rates and International Futures - The RMB to USD exchange rate is 7.1183, up 0.0019; the Brazilian real to RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee to RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004. The ICE raw sugar main contract is at 14.43, unchanged; the London white sugar main contract is at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil main contract is at 64.3, unchanged [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, and pure benzene. Each commodity is expected to have different trends, such as high-level consolidation, short-term shock markets, or downward pressure [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high-level consolidation market. PXN should be shorted on rallies. The domestic PX plant operating rate is 85.9% (+1%), and the Asian overall load operating rate is 78.5% (+0.5%). Lock in profits when PXN is above $230 [8]. - **PTA**: With the decline in oil prices, the valuation has dropped. The unilateral upside is expected to be limited. The PTA processing fee is expected to expand in the short term [2][9]. - **MEG**: In a short-term shock market. The upside is expected to be limited. Domestic supply is expected to contract marginally, but port inventories are expected to be high [2][9]. Rubber - Expected to move in a range. The import rubber market reported higher prices this week, while the domestic natural rubber spot market was weak. Overseas and domestic production areas were affected by typhoons and heavy rains, and raw material prices were high. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies is expected to increase slightly next week [10][13][14]. Synthetic Rubber - Cost is moving down, but the macro environment is strong, and it is expected to move in a range. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber decreased this week, while the inventory of butadiene increased. The short-term market is expected to be volatile, and the medium-term price center is expected to move down [15][16][17]. Asphalt - Expected to follow crude oil and move in a range. This week, the domestic heavy-traffic asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, the asphalt device maintenance volume decreased, and the factory and social inventories decreased [18][30]. LLDPE - Expected to mainly move in a range. The domestic PE market price fluctuated narrowly this week. The upstream crude oil price fluctuated narrowly, and the overall maintenance loss increased. The demand for agricultural films and packaging films was weak, and the overall transaction volume was limited [32][33]. PP - Short-term decline has stopped, and medium-term is expected to be in a range. The domestic PP market price rose and then consolidated this week, and the price center moved up slightly. The short-term market rebounded reasonably, but the long-term downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally solve, so the market may be in a weak and volatile pattern in the medium term [36][37]. Caustic Soda - Valuation is suppressed. The Shandong liquid caustic soda market was weak this week, and most companies' inventories increased. The alumina industry has high production and high inventory, and the profit is continuously compressed. The caustic soda valuation is always suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation [40][41][42]. Pulp - Expected to move in a range. The domestic pulp market was flat this week, and the supply was loose. The downstream paper market tried to raise prices, but the actual implementation remained to be seen. The downstream overall operation was stable and weak, and the inventory problem was still prominent [46][48][50]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass market price was mainly stable today, and the market transaction was average. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. Float glass factories mainly reduce inventory and ship goods [51][52]. Methanol - Under shock pressure. The port methanol market weakened this period, and the inland methanol continued to decline. The methanol fundamentals are under great pressure, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term, with the medium-term price center moving down [54][57][58]. Urea - Under shock pressure. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased this week. The short-term fundamentals of urea are gradually weakening, but due to the macro-driven commodity index being strong and the coal price rising slightly, it is expected to present a volatile game pattern [59][60][62]. Styrene - Expected to mainly move in a range in the short term. The short positions should take profits. The crude oil price rebounded rapidly at a low level, driving the chemical valuation to repair upwards. The port inventory accumulation expectations of pure benzene and styrene in October have turned into destocking expectations. The short-term absolute price is mainly volatile [63][64]. Soda Ash - The spot market has changed little. The domestic soda ash market remained stable, and the price had no obvious fluctuation. The enterprise device fluctuation was small, the supply continued to hover at a high level, and there was no maintenance expectation. The downstream enterprise demand was lukewarm, and the market was weakly stable and volatile in the short term [67]. LPG - The official price of CP in November is slightly higher than market expectations. The PDH operating rate increased this week, and the MTBE and alkylation operating rates changed little [71][72]. Propylene - Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have changed to different degrees this week [72]. PVC - The trend remains weak. The PVC social inventory decreased slightly this week, but the year-on-year increase was 25.09%. The PVC market has a high production and high inventory structure, and the export growth rate may slow down [79]. Fuel Oil - Relatively weaker than low-sulfur fuel oil, and the volatility continues to increase. The low-sulfur fuel oil continues to be strong, and the price difference between high and low sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [81]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Expected to consolidate in a range. The freight rates of European and US West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI have increased to different degrees [83].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The macro - expected situation has been realized, and the market is under short - term pressure. The supply - demand contradictions in glass, soda ash, and double - silicon sectors continue to affect the prices of related products [1][3] 3. Market Analysis and Strategy by Product Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market dropped significantly yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for刚需. The开工 rate of float glass enterprises this week was 80.63%, unchanged from last week, and the factory inventory was 65.79 million heavy boxes, a 1.24% decrease from last week, showing obvious inventory reduction. However, the supply - demand contradiction is still large, the inventory pressure is still at a historically high level, and the futures - cash merchants are squeezing the market share of glass factories. With the end of the consumption peak season and the potential for some production lines to resume production, the glass price is expected to remain under pressure [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market showed a weak oscillating trend yesterday. Downstream procurement is mainly for刚需 replenishment. This week, the soda ash production was 757,600 tons, a 2.29% increase from last week, and the inventory was 1.702 million tons, a 0.01% decrease from last week. The supply - demand contradiction remains, with the supply expected to increase further, the刚需 showing resilience, and the speculative demand weakening. The inventory reduction pressure will persist throughout the year [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of silicomanganese futures first rose and then fell, closing at 5,842 yuan/ton yesterday. The spot market was stable, and the alloy cost support was fair. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5,600 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Although silicomanganese enterprises are facing increasing losses, the production remains high, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. Recently, coking coal has driven the upward movement of the black sector, strengthening the bottom support of silicomanganese. It is expected that the silicomanganese price will continue to fluctuate with the sector [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures tried to rise in the morning but faced pressure and then declined in the afternoon under the influence of the black sector. The spot market sentiment was flat, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. Currently, ferrosilicon enterprises have high production and high inventory, and the demand is expected to weaken. Although enterprises are continuously losing money, it has not effectively curbed production, and the weak fundamental situation is difficult to reverse. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon price will follow the sector [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - For L and PP, the rating is neutral [4]. 2. Core View - The downstream demand for polyolefins is still slowly increasing, and both PE and PP are under pressure. The short - term trends of PE and PP are mainly influenced by the cost side. The supply of both is under pressure, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PE is in short - term shock consolidation, and the price of PP continues to be weak [2][3]. 3. Section Summaries Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,968 yuan/ton (-41), PP main contract at 6,651 yuan/ton (-34). LL North China spot was 6,950 yuan/ton (-10), LL East China spot 7,060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6,580 yuan/ton (-30). LL North China basis was -18 yuan/ton (+31), LL East China basis 92 yuan/ton (+41), PP East China basis -71 yuan/ton (+4) [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 80.9% (-0.6%), PP开工率 was 77.1% (+1.1%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 343.2 yuan/ton (-39.1), PP oil - based production profit was -346.8 yuan/ton (-39.1), PDH - based PP production profit was 45.6 yuan/ton (-8.9) [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was 69.8 yuan/ton (+86.1), PP import profit was -294.7 yuan/ton (+0.7), PP export profit was -21.7 dollars/ton (-5.1) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 49.5% (+2.4%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 51.3% (-1.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.2% (-0.2%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.6% (+0.2%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, the supply surplus expectation is strengthened, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The cost support of PE is weakened. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is still limited. The PE price is in short - term shock consolidation, and the upside space may be limited [3]. - **PP**: The oil - based cost support is weakened, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The supply pressure continues, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PP continues to be weak [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [4].