行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 08 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 8 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯 ...

2025年07月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：一轮提涨发酵，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 8 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 731.0 | -1.5 | -0. 20% | | | 12509 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for European routes increased by 6.3% to 2258.04 points as of July 7, 2025 [1] - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.949 million tons from June 30 to July 6, 2025, a decrease of 3.627 million tons compared to the previous period [1] - A coal mine in Linfen, Shanxi Province resumed production on July 5, with a certified capacity of 900,000 tons, after being offline for 15 days, affecting total coal output by over 40,000 tons [1] Group 2 - In June, domestic soybean crushing volume reached a historical high of 10.11 million tons, with expectations of maintaining high operating rates in July at around 9.5 million tons [1] - As of July 3, 2025, U.S. soybean export inspections amounted to 389,364 tons, corn at 1,491,062 tons, and wheat at 436,628 tons [2] - Brazil's first corn harvest rate reached 97.2% as of July 5, 2025, while the second corn harvest rate was at 27.7% [2] - The U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rating remained at 66%, while corn's good-to-excellent rating improved to 74% [2]

Core Insights - Tang Liuchian, known as the "Chinese Wall Street Wolf," has made significant impacts in capital, art, and charity, representing a 16-generation family legacy [1][28] - The Tang family has a rich history, with roots tracing back to Tang Jingchuan, a notable Ming dynasty official, and has evolved from cultural pursuits to industrial ventures [1][3] Group 1: Family Background and Early Life - Tang Liuchian was born into an industrial family, with his father, Tang Bingyuan, dominating the wool textile industry in Shanghai [3] - The family relocated to Hong Kong in 1948 due to political turmoil, where Tang Liuchian began his education in English and Cantonese [3][4] - At age 11, he was sent to the U.S. for elite education, attending Phillips Academy, a prestigious institution [4] Group 2: Education and Early Career - Tang excelled academically, leading in math competitions and participating in English debate, eventually gaining admission to Yale University [4][6] - He later attended Harvard Business School, where he developed a passion for investment theories and financial engineering [6] - In 1970, he founded an investment company in Manhattan, raising $1.2 billion in just two years, becoming the first publicly traded private equity fund in the U.S. [6][12] Group 3: Business Ventures and Innovations - In 1978, he acquired KOA, the largest camping chain in the U.S., which had over 500 campsites across 50 states [8][10] - He transformed the camping business by implementing digital innovations, catering to middle-class American families' needs [12] - Tang co-founded the "Hundred People’s Association" in 1990, a platform for cultural dialogue between China and the U.S. [12][14] Group 4: Philanthropy and Cultural Contributions - After the death of his first wife, he sold his company for $350 million and shifted focus to rebuilding social trust and engaging in philanthropy [16] - He made significant donations to the Metropolitan Museum of Art, including $125 million for a new modern art wing, which was named after him [16][19] - Tang has donated numerous Chinese artworks and artifacts, contributing to the reestablishment of cultural heritage [19][20] Group 5: Personal Life and Legacy - Tang Liuchian remarried to Xu Xinmei, an archaeologist, and they established a scholarship fund for Chinese-American youth in arts and archaeology [20][25] - The couple's foundation emphasizes cross-cultural exchange and the importance of heritage [25][27] - In 2024, the Metropolitan Museum announced the establishment of the "Tang Liuchian China Research Award" to promote the international circulation and academic study of Chinese art [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean meal futures market is influenced by the decline of the US soybean market, with the domestic spot market also showing signs of weakness. The rapeseed meal market has limited support, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is widening. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are falling. In the future, the US soybean may experience a phased decline, while the decline of the domestic market is expected to be limited. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand, and the monthly spread of rapeseed meal may face pressure [4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures market declined significantly due to favorable weather in the production area and lack of substantial positive factors in demand. The domestic soybean meal market followed the decline of the cost side, and the domestic spot market also weakened. The rapeseed meal market had limited support, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to decline [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The balance sheet of the new US soybean crop has improved, mainly due to the boost of biodiesel policy on soybean crushing. However, there is no substantial positive factor in production and export. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers has been slow, and the pressure on soybean prices is increasing. The soybean crushing volume in Brazil has decreased, and the profit is relatively low. The domestic soybean crushing volume in Argentina may improve, but soybean exports may increase. Overall, the supply pressure of the international soybean market is mainly concentrated in South America [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply is relatively loose, with the oil mill operating rate increasing, market supply abundant, and inventory gradually accumulating. The demand for rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, and the supply pressure still exists. Although the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is uncertain, the demand has also weakened, so the rapeseed meal market is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The negotiation between China and the United States in London has been completed, but the market has not received clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the international trade situation has many uncertain factors, the macro - disturbances are decreasing. In the short term, the price of Chinese soybeans is not likely to decline significantly because of the high demand for the US soybean market [7]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure due to the decline of the external market. The upcoming monthly supply - demand report may have a negative impact on the price, and the slow selling progress in Brazil and lack of demand support may lead to a phased decline of the US soybean price. The decline of the domestic market is expected to be limited. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal may face pressure, but the room for a sharp decline is limited. The rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by the soybean meal market, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to take a long - position strategy at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM09 spread [9]. - **Options**: Take a wait - and - see approach [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight and spot market data for commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, and soybeans, along with important fundamental information including weather forecasts, production estimates, and trade data. It also covers macro - economic news both internationally and domestically, as well as details on capital flows and potential arbitrage opportunities in the futures market [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 09 was 4062.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.76% and an overnight increase of 1%. Brent 09 (ICE) closed at 68.51, down 0.49% the previous day and up 0.26% overnight. NYMEX WTI 08 closed at 66.50, down 1.01% the previous day and up 0.09% overnight [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 8660, 8540, and 8460 respectively, with corresponding basis values of 220, 100, and 20, and no change in basis compared to the previous day. For DCE soybean oil 2509, spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8120, 8150, 8170, and 8090 respectively, with varying basis values and basis changes [2]. Important Fundamental Information 产区 Weather - US soybean - producing states will have temperatures near to above normal and mostly higher precipitation from July 9 - 13. The US Midwest will have local to scattered showers this week, with temperatures near to above normal [4][6]. International Supply and Demand - MPOA estimates a 4.69% reduction in Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 - 30. UOB predicts a 3% - 7% reduction in Malaysian palm oil production by June 30. As of July 1, 2025, the barge rate on the Mississippi River increased by 2%. Brazil has sold 69.8% of its 2024/25 soybeans and 16.4% of its 2025/26 soybeans. Brazil exported 13,420,303 tons of soybeans in June [8][9]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On July 4, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 75% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 6.34 tons, a decrease of 10.25 tons from the previous day. The oil - mill operation rate on July 4 was 66.16%, up 1.68% from the previous day [12]. Macro - economic News International News - US President Trump signed a tax and spending bill on July 4. He plans to impose tariffs ranging from 10% - 20% and 60% - 70% on different countries starting August 1. OPEC + will hold a virtual meeting on July 5 to decide on production policy, with an expected 411,000 - barrel - per - day increase in August [15][16]. Domestic News - On July 4, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1535, up 12 points. The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 491.9 billion yuan. China's futures market showed significant year - on - year growth in trading volume and turnover in June [17]. Capital Flows - On July 4, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 21.144 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 2.835 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net capital inflow of 23.979 billion yuan [21]. Arbitrage Tracking - The report shows potential arbitrage opportunities for oil and oil - seed related varieties, such as P 2509 - 2601, Y 2509 - 2601, etc [23].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | OPEC+8 月份继续加速增产，油价偏弱。7 月 6 日，沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉 | | 原油 | 偏空 | 克等 8 个 OPEC+国家计划于 8 月份增产 54.8 万桶/日；从供需基本面看， | | | | OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压 | | | | 力较大。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【480-500】 | | | | 成本端油价下行压力较大，液化气承压。OPEC+加速增产，成本端油价承 | | LPG | 偏空 | 压；下游化工需求有所下降，PDH 开工回落；库存端利好，厂内和港口库 | | | | 存均下降。策略：走势偏弱，可轻仓布局空单。PG【4100-4200】 | | | | 现货涨价，仓单增加，华北基差为-42（环比+22）。近期装置检修加强， | | L | | 新装置暂未释放，供给压力边际缓解，预计本周产量降至 60.5 万吨。需求 | | | 空头盘整 | 淡季，下游刚需拿货为主，关注后续库存去化力度。7-8 月仍有山东新时 | ...

| | | (苹果) 期价偏弱震荡。现货方面，主流报价持稳。需求进入淡季，虽然目前冷库苹果库存较低，但是时令水果上市量增加，天气也较 为炎热,苹果需求有所下降,现货价格走势转弱。早熟苹果方面,新季早熟苹果开始陆续供应市场。目前主要上市品种为光景 晨阳,运城地区65#黑上市价格同比上涨0.2-0.3元/斤,贸易商看涨意愿较强,关注后期早熟苹果价格走势。从交易逻辑来看, 市场的交易重心转向新季度的估产。今年西部产区受到案湖和花期大风的影响，但是低温对产量的影响不大，主要曾加了果锈 的风险。另一方面,今年产区整体花量较足,产量预估相对偏空,操作上维持偏空思路。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月07日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ...

Group 1: Industrial Silicon Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in the process of bottom - hunting oscillations, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [6][29] Summary by Directory 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Industrial silicon futures are in the process of bottom - hunting oscillations [6] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the spot market price of industrial silicon mainly increased slightly. As of July 3, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8450 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9900 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9600 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily line of industrial silicon price is in an upward channel [6] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: The price fluctuation range of industrial silicon 2509 futures is 7000 - 8600, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The industrial silicon price showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend, and it was advisable to consider buying call options [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The industrial silicon price is in a bottom - hunting oscillating operation, and it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [10] 3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [12] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [16] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in the process of bottom - hunting oscillations, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [6][29] Summary by Directory 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in the process of bottom - hunting oscillations [29] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate increased. As of July 3, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61,900 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,400 yuan/ton. The market has sufficient available supply, and downstream enterprises mainly have rigid replenishment demand. Technically, the AI variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily line of lithium carbonate futures is basically in an upward channel [30] - Mid - term strategy suggestion: The price fluctuation range of lithium carbonate 2509 futures is 57,000 - 67,000, and it is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The price of lithium carbonate showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend, and it was advisable to consider buying call options [33] - This week's strategy suggestion: The price of lithium carbonate is in a bottom - hunting oscillating operation, and it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [34] 3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [36] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [38]