1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, as reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect, the game between economies has intensified, and market concerns have resurfaced. Trump's efforts to pressure Powell continue, which on one hand intensifies market unease and on the other hand loosens the expectation that the Fed will maintain high - interest rates. Under factors such as safe - haven demand and improved liquidity expectations, precious metals have risen strongly. In the future, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and precious metals are expected to remain in an upward - biased pattern [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: During the day, precious metals consolidated horizontally and gave back some of yesterday's gains. London gold is trading around $3389, and London silver is around $38.9. Driven by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.64% at 784.84 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.56% at 9393 yuan/kg [3] - Dollar index: The dollar index fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading around 97.865 [4] - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly and is currently trading around 4.39% [5] - RMB exchange rate: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate continued to consolidate at a high level and is currently trading around 7.175 [6] Important Information - Tariff trends: The EU is exploring broader potential counter - measures against US tariffs, with negotiation as the priority; US Treasury Secretary is more concerned about high - quality transactions; 19% of US tariffs on Indonesia may take effect before August 1st [7] - Fed turmoil: US Republican Congressman Luna sent a letter to the Department of Justice accusing Powell of perjury; the Fed added a video tour of the headquarters renovation project on its website [7] - Fed observation: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2% [7] Logic Analysis - With the approaching of reciprocal tariff implementation, market concerns have increased. Trump's pressure on the Fed has made the expectation of continuous high - interest rates waver. Precious metals have risen strongly due to safe - haven and liquidity expectations. In the future, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may cause inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and precious metals are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [8][9][10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider continuing to hold long positions [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Data Reference - Dollar index and precious metals trends: Presented the trends of the dollar index against London gold and London silver [15][16] - Real yields and precious metals trends: Showed the trends of real yields against London gold and London silver [17][18][21] - Domestic and foreign futures trends: Displayed the trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures [20][22] - Futures - spot trends: Presented the trends of gold and silver futures - spot differences [24][25] - Domestic - foreign price differences: Showed the domestic - foreign price differences of gold and silver [28][30] - Gold - silver ratio: Presented the gold - silver ratios of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex [36][37] - ETF holdings: Displayed the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF [39][40] - Futures positions: Showed the futures positions of gold and silver [41][42] - Futures inventories: Presented the futures inventories of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver [43][45] - Trading volumes: Showed the trading volumes of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver [46][47] - TD data: Included gold and silver TD deferred fees, and the delivery volumes of gold and silver TD [50][51][57] - Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates: Presented the relationships among nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, real interest rates, and US Treasury yields [55]

Group 1: Gold Futures Market Performance - As of July 21, the main gold futures in Shanghai reported a price of 784.74 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.63% [1] - The opening price for the main gold futures was 784.70 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 787.80 CNY and a low of 784.20 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - EU diplomats are exploring broader potential countermeasures against U.S. tariffs but prioritize negotiations with the U.S. [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed a focus on high-quality deals rather than completing transactions by August 1, indicating a desire to avoid conflict with Europe [1] - Indonesia's 19% U.S. tariff may take effect before August 1, depending on a joint statement [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's website indicates a 97.4% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] - For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 41.4%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57.2% [3] Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - The imminent implementation of reciprocal tariffs is intensifying economic negotiations, leading to renewed market anxiety [4] - Ongoing pressure from Trump on Powell is contributing to market unease and may soften expectations for sustained high interest rates from the Federal Reserve [4] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and policies is expected to lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, with precious metals likely to maintain an upward trend amid this uncertainty [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, with the new Fed Chair nominee affecting interest - rate cut expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of tariff implementation in early August. The long - term weak - dollar pattern continues, and non - dollar assets are worth focusing on [6]. - China's Q2 economic data shows resilience, with export performance better than market expectations. The current pro - growth policies mainly focus on using existing resources, and the probability of incremental policies is higher in Q4. Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities [6]. - The logic of policy - driven investment is strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policies in Q4 is higher. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales. The potential Fed Chair nominees generally advocate interest - rate cuts, and the nomination is expected between October and December 2025. US tariff policies on other countries and China may be implemented before August 1st and 12th [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, and June's export value increased by 5.8% year - on - year, better than expected. High - frequency data shows an increase in infrastructure work, and investment fundamentals have improved. As the Politburo meeting approaches, the market anticipates domestic - demand boosting policies. Currently, pro - growth policies focus on using existing resources, and incremental policies are more likely in Q4 [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to the details of "anti - involution" policies. Overseas, factors such as tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. A long - term weak - dollar pattern is expected, and strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is recommended [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Positive expectations for "anti - involution" policies are hard to disprove, but there is a lack of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and selling options dominate, with deteriorating option liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond yield curve continues to steepen, and attention should be paid to unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [7]. Shipping - For container shipping to Europe, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, as well as tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The market is affected by macro factors and fluctuates at high levels. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot - metal production slightly rebounds, and the market fluctuates strongly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases is about to be implemented, and there are strong expectations for a second - round increase. Attention should be paid to steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Mongolian coal resumes customs clearance, and the market fluctuates. Attention should be paid to steel production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment cools, and prices decline weakly. Attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: Policy falls short of expectations, and the market fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment declines, and short - term fundamental contradictions are limited. Attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and spot prices keep falling. Attention should be paid to soda - ash inventory [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The possible early implementation of US tariffs on copper pressures copper prices. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, Fed's hawkish stance, and domestic demand recovery [7]. - **Alumina**: The scale of warehouse - receipt registration needs to be observed, and the market declines. Attention should be paid to unexpected ore production resumption, excessive electrolytic - aluminum production resumption, and extreme market trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory - accumulation rhythm fluctuates, and prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The rebound of the black - metal sector boosts zinc prices, and short - selling opportunities should be watched. Attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Cost support is stable, and inventory accumulates. Prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: With the opening of the LME's Hong Kong delivery warehouse, nickel prices are expected to decline in the long term. Attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and insufficient supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weak, and the market fluctuates. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and unexpected demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and prices are strongly supported at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement expectations [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Silicon prices rise under the "anti - involution" sentiment, and attention should be paid to warehouse - receipt changes. Attention should be paid to unexpected supply - side production cuts and excessive photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply disruptions are hyped, and prices fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to insufficient demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The market is expected to decline [9]. - **LPG**: The market returns to trading a loose fundamental situation and may decline [9]. - **Asphalt**: "Anti - involution" trading keeps the asphalt - fuel oil price spread high, and the market is expected to decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High supply and "anti - involution" factors lead to a weakening market, which is expected to decline [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rotterdam's low - sulfur marine fuel is largely replaced by high - sulfur fuel, and the market is expected to decline [9]. - **Methanol**: Low domestic production counters increasing imports, and the market fluctuates [9]. - **Urea**: The domestic supply - demand imbalance persists, and exports are needed. The market may fluctuate [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The basis is stable, and plants are restarting. The market is expected to rise [9]. - **PX**: Crude - oil prices are stable, and PX fluctuates strongly [9]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand weakens, but the cost of PX is strong. The market fluctuates [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The basis declines, and processing fees increase. The market is expected to rise [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Maintenance begins, and processing fees reach the bottom. The market fluctuates [9]. - **PP**: News of petrochemical growth boosts the market, which fluctuates [9]. - **Plastic**: Production is expected to increase next week, and the market fluctuates [9]. - **Styrene**: There is no clear market driver, and the market is expected to decline [9]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment warms up again, and the market fluctuates [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expectations for growth are strong, and the market is cautiously optimistic [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil leads the rise in oils and fats, but attention should be paid to inventory - accumulation pressure in producing areas. The market is expected to rise [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Concerns about China's counter - measures against Canada drive up rapeseed meal prices. The market is expected to rise [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Spot supply is locally tight, and prices fluctuate weakly. The market is expected to decline [9]. - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure. The market fluctuates [9]. Agriculture - **Rubber**: Positive sentiment drives up prices, and the market fluctuates [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market rebounds after a decline and fluctuates [9]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by macro factors and fluctuates. Attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices rise with increasing positions and reach new highs. Attention should be paid to demand and production [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices rise slightly and fluctuate [9]. - **Logs**: Delivery continues, and prices rise with increasing positions. Attention should be paid to shipment and delivery volumes. The market is expected to decline [9].

Core Viewpoint - China is prepared for a prolonged trade conflict with the U.S. and has implemented new export control measures to strengthen its strategic position in the ongoing trade war [1][3][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Export Control Measures - The Ministry of Commerce of China has released a new version of the export control technology catalog, which includes a list of technologies that are prohibited from export and those that require licensing for export [1] - Key changes in the catalog focus on building environment control technology, battery technology, and non-ferrous metal metallurgy technology [1] Strategic Preparedness - China recognizes that the trade conflict with the U.S. is unavoidable and is taking steps to prepare for potential escalations, including the possibility of a second round of tariff wars initiated by the U.S. [6] - The recent changes in trade rules and diplomatic efforts are aimed at transforming China's position from passive to proactive in the face of external pressures [6][8] Diplomatic Efforts - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been actively engaging with various countries, including visits to Europe and Malaysia, to strengthen alliances and prepare for upcoming international meetings [6] - There is an acknowledgment that the European Union is not entirely unified and that China can adopt a strategy of "picking off" individual EU countries for cooperation [8] Importance of Strategic Assets - The export control measures are viewed as a "trump card" that can help China maintain a strong position in the face of Western pressures [8][9] - The ability to control core technologies and resources is seen as essential for China to remain competitive and resilient against U.S. attempts to impose tariffs and other trade barriers [3][9]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Wanjiarongli Quantitative Stock Selection Mixed Initiation A (019987) reported a profit of 59,900 yuan in Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0119 yuan, and a net value growth rate of 1.26% during the period [3][4]. Fund Performance - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 0.978 yuan, with a three-month net value growth rate of 4.63%, ranking 539 out of 615 in its category [4]. - The fund's six-month net value growth rate was 4.02%, ranking 512 out of 615, and the one-year growth rate was 9.63%, ranking 450 out of 584 [4]. - Since inception, the fund has maintained a high average stock position of 92.4%, compared to the category average of 83.13% [14]. Fund Management Insights - The fund manager, Yin Hang, oversees seven funds and anticipates that market sentiment will focus on the performance of A-share companies as they disclose their semi-annual reports [3]. - The manager believes that sectors with better-than-expected performance or sustained growth will attract short-term attention [3]. - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception was 20.86%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q1 2024 at 16.34% [11]. Fund Holdings - As of Q2 2025, the top ten holdings of the fund included Erdos, New China Life Insurance, Gree Electric Appliances, China Shenhua Energy, Huayang Co., China Merchants Highway, Shangu Power, Chengdu Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Qilu Bank [19].

Group 1 - President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, indicating he is "unlikely" to fire Chairman Powell but does not rule out any options [1] - Following Trump's comments about potentially firing Powell, the dollar rebounded successfully, and technology stocks generally rose [1] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow down 0.11%, S&P 500 up 0.01%, and Nasdaq up 0.15% [2] Group 2 - TSMC's second-quarter net profit surged by 61%, exceeding expectations, with a projected sales growth of approximately 30% for the year [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 1.0%, reaching 7664.8 points [3] Group 3 - Trump expressed intentions to impose tariffs on over 150 minor trade partners, potentially setting rates between 10% to 15% [4] - A notification will be sent to these countries regarding the new tariff rates, which are expected to be uniform across all targeted nations [4] - The U.S. is currently negotiating tariffs with major trade partners including the EU, Japan, Canada, and Mexico [5]

Group 1: Tariff Impact and Revenue - In Q2 2023, the U.S. collected approximately $64.4 billion in tariffs, annualizing to nearly $260 billion[2] - The current tariff rate is 10%, with some products facing a higher increase of 25%[4] - The U.S. import price index remained stable, with an average monthly growth rate of about 0% from February to May 2023[3] Group 2: Cost Burden Distribution - Historically, consumers and importers bear the brunt of tariffs due to their weaker bargaining power[3] - Japanese automobile exports to the U.S. saw a significant price drop of 18% from April to June 2023[6] - U.S. manufacturers and wholesalers are currently absorbing tariff costs, with retail prices remaining relatively stable[7] Group 3: Future Price Adjustments - Over 50% of surveyed companies plan to pass at least 50%-75% of tariff costs onto consumers[9] - Retailers, facing thin profit margins, are increasingly pressured to raise prices, with Walmart leading the charge[8] - The anticipated price increases may further strain U.S. household budgets and consumer spending, potentially leading to stagflation[9]

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the financial policies in China and the implications for the A-share market, as well as the performance of various ETFs, particularly the Huazhong Fund's ETFs. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Recent Financial Policies**: A series of financial policies were released in China to address economic concerns, particularly in light of the ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. [1][2][3] 2. **Impact of Tariffs**: The escalating tariffs between China and the U.S. have created significant economic uncertainty, prompting the need for a comprehensive financial policy response to mitigate negative effects on exports and the economy [3][4][5] 3. **Monetary Policy Measures**: The recent monetary policy includes a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, which is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [5][6] 4. **Interest Rate Adjustments**: The central bank has lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to influence longer-term lending rates [5][6] 5. **Economic Stimulus**: The measures aim to stimulate economic activity by enhancing liquidity and supporting corporate profitability, especially in the context of a slowing economy [6][7] 6. **Market Reactions**: The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with a reported 3.5% year-on-year increase in net profits for the first quarter, alleviating some market concerns [17][19] 7. **Sector Performance**: Sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing have performed well, while others like coal, real estate, and banking have underperformed [18][19] 8. **Investment Opportunities**: The discussion highlights the potential for investment in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly through ETFs, as they offer a convenient way to access these markets [16][24] 9. **Gold as an Investment**: The conversation also touches on gold investments, emphasizing its role as a hedge against economic uncertainty and currency risks, with recommendations for allocation in investment portfolios [29][32] 10. **Global Economic Context**: The U.S. Federal Reserve's stance remains cautious, with potential implications for global economic conditions and trade policies, which could affect investment strategies [8][10][11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: Despite short-term challenges, there is optimism regarding the resilience of the Chinese economy and the effectiveness of government policies in stabilizing the market [13][22] 2. **Strategic Reserve Policies**: The role of state-owned funds in supporting the market is highlighted, indicating a strong backing for A-shares amidst volatility [14][22] 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: The potential for geopolitical tensions to impact market dynamics and investment strategies is acknowledged, particularly in relation to U.S.-China relations [10][11][30] 4. **Investor Sentiment**: The importance of managing market expectations and investor sentiment through proactive policy measures is emphasized [9][34] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current financial landscape and investment opportunities.

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.16 2025-07-16 特朗普关税博弈再起，全球资产短期扰动 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 特朗普关税博弈再起，扰动全球资产价格，本周全球大宗商品价格基本都上涨，全 球股市分化，新兴市场优于发达市场。美国经济依然具有韧性，特朗普不断督促鲍 威尔降息，但是新一轮关税对通胀的压力下，美联储降息仍有掣肘，同时关税冲击 经济，欧央行保留进一步降息稳经济的选项，日本央行加息可能延迟至 2026 年。 投资要点： 0755-23976659 wanghao8@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880521120002 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 梁中华(分析师) 021-23219820 liangzhonghua@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525040019 | 1. | 美国：特朗普关税博弈再起，大宗商品价格推升通胀预期 3 | | --- | --- | | 2. | 欧洲：生产端走强，需求端偏弱 5 | | 3. | 政策：特朗普施 ...

Group 1: Market Review - London gold is currently trading around $3360, and London silver around $38.25. Shanghai gold futures rose 0.25% to 780.4 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 0.52% to 9225 yuan/kg [3] - The US dollar index opened higher and then weakened, currently trading around 97.97 [4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated slightly, currently around 4.415% [5] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar oscillated at a high level, currently around 7.173 [6] Group 2: Important Information - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia, and the EU is preparing to impose counter - tariff on $72 billion of US goods [7] - Fed's Harker said there is no urgent need to cut interest rates, and Powell asked the Fed inspector general to review the renovation cost of the Fed building [7] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 94.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5.2%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60.0% [7] Group 3: Logical Analysis - As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, the tariff game has tightened. Due to tariff uncertainty, the Fed is taking a wait - and - see approach. The market is waiting for the US CPI data tonight. Silver is in short supply due to tax - increase expectations, and precious metals are expected to continue a strong trend [8][10] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, consider holding long positions based on the 5 - day moving average [11] - For arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [12][13] Group 5: Data Reference - There are multiple data charts including actual yield and precious metal trends, US dollar index and precious metal trends, internal and external futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, gold - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures positions, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [14][16][21]