策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需求 豆油 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美国关税政策，美豆油库 存，生柴需求，国内原料供 应节奏，油厂库存 棕榈 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 马棕产量和出口，印尼出口， 主产国关税政策，国内到港、 库存，替代需求 策略参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品 ...

Key Points Summary of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Methanol, Coking Coal, Soda Ash, Crude Oil, Polyolefins, Rubber [1][8][10] - **Bullish**: Cotton [10] - **Range - bound**: Stock Index Futures, Treasury Bonds, Precious Metals, Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper, Nickel), Industrial Silicon, Iron Ore, Coke, PTA [2][4][5][6][8][10] - **Weakly Bearish**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Carbonate Lithium, Glass, Methanol [6][8][10] - **Weakly Bullish**: Non - Ferrous Metals (Aluminum and Alumina), Polyester [4][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The domestic economic data in April was stable, but there was a lack of significant positive factors in the fundamental and policy aspects. The A - share market will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the downward risk is controllable. The long - term downward trend of bond yields is certain, but there are large uncertainties in the macro and capital aspects [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Different commodities have different market trends due to various factors such as supply and demand, cost, and geopolitical situation. For example, some commodities are affected by supply increases, cost decreases, or geopolitical easing, showing a downward or weakening trend; while others are supported by supply constraints or demand improvements, showing a bullish or range - bound trend. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: In April, the domestic economic data was stable. The A - share market continued to fluctuate, with the trading volume remaining at a low level. The influence of dividends on the basis of index futures contracts gradually increased. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the A - share market will continue to fluctuate. Considering the role of Central Huijin and policy promotion, the downward risk is controllable. Attention should be paid to low - level long - buying opportunities [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Situation**: The bond market rose slightly, and the four major contracts closed up. There were still uncertainties in Sino - US tariffs, and the domestic economic data was mixed. - **Outlook**: The long - term downward trend of bond yields is certain, but there are large uncertainties in the macro and capital aspects. The market is greatly affected by capital expectations, and overall caution is still needed. Attention should be paid to the LPR interest rate [2]. Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: The demand for hedging decreased, and the price of gold fluctuated at a high level. The ratio of gold to silver was high, and silver had strong support. - **Outlook**: Precious metals will maintain a high - level range - bound trend for the time being, waiting for the enhancement of the upward driving force in the large cycle [2][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation was still uncertain, and the supply was in a tight pattern. The domestic consumption peak season was coming to an end, and the demand was affected by the macro aspect. The copper price will continue to fluctuate [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The short - term supply of alumina was tight, and the price was strong, but the medium - term over - supply pattern remained unchanged, and the price game intensified. The supply of aluminum was rigidly restricted, and the price continued to fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals of nickel lacked directional driving force. The price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the near term, and the odds of unilateral strategies were limited [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: The supply in the north decreased due to equipment maintenance and cost inversion, while the southwest increased production. The demand from the polysilicon industry did not increase, and the industry continued to accumulate inventory. - **Outlook**: The resistance to price increases was still large, and the price will fluctuate [6]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The steel market showed a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. The real - estate investment weakened, and the supply pressure might increase in the off - season. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter, and the short - term price range was [3000, 3150]. It was recommended to continue to hold the sold out - of - the - money call options [6]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The direct and indirect exports of steel were strong, but the long - term external demand was uncertain. The supply pressure might increase in the off - season. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter, and the short - term price range was [3150, 3300]. It was recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand structure of iron ore was relatively healthy, but the long - term over - supply pattern was clear. It was recommended to continue to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and wait for the opportunity to short the far - month contract at high prices [6]. Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal was loose, and the downstream demand was weak. The price was bearish, and the short - selling strategy should be continued [6]. - **Coke**: The demand for coke was supported in the short term, but the market was not optimistic about the long - term demand. The first round of price cuts was successful, and the price trend remained weak [6]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity of soda ash was over - supplied, and the inventory was high. There was no clear signal of a stop - fall. It was recommended to hold the short position of the 09 contract and short on rebounds [8]. - **Glass**: The speculative demand for glass was good, but the real - estate market continued to decline, and the inventory risk was high. It was recommended to hold the short position of the FG509 contract [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: There were still uncertainties in the macro and geopolitical aspects. The possibility of OPEC+ increasing production was high. - **Outlook**: Without obvious positive factors, the oil price might continue to decline. It was recommended to continue to hold the short - selling strategy [8]. Polyester - **Market Situation**: The supply of PTA was tightened due to large - scale maintenance, and the demand from the polyester industry was at a high level. - **Outlook**: The price was strongly supported and showed a weakly bullish trend [8]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: The planned restart of some maintenance devices and the increase in expected supply, combined with the decline in coal prices, led to a weak methanol trend. - **Outlook**: The price was bearish, and attention should be paid to the increase in the arrival volume [10]. Polyolefins - **Market Situation**: Multiple economic data were poor, and the PE operating rate decreased to the lowest level of the year, while the PP operating rate increased. The L - PP spread widened. - **Outlook**: The downward trend will continue [10]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The growth of cotton seedlings was good, and the relaxation of Sino - US tariff policies was expected to increase export orders. - **Outlook**: The price was bullish, and attention should be paid to weather and macro changes [10]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: The inventory removal in ports was slow, and the raw materials entered the seasonal production - increasing season. The supply increased while the demand decreased. - **Outlook**: The price was weakly bearish, and the strategy of selling call options should be held [10].

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.09） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 黑色及建材板块 品 种 ： 铝 日内观点：窄幅波动，运行区间：19400-19700 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19200-21000 参考策略：卖出 AL2507-P-19300 持有 核心逻辑： ①社会库存方面，截至 5 月 6 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 63.7 万吨，较上周增加 2.40 万吨。去年同期库存为 77.6 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期 最低位。库存持续持续处于低位，利好铝价。 ②1—3 月，汽车产销分别完成 756.1 万辆和 747 万辆，同比分别增长 14.5% 和 11.2%。汽车市场表现向好，利好铝价。 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 日内观点：钢价渐进式下跌 中期观点：钢价承压运行 参考策略： 1、持有卖出螺纹钢看涨期权 RB2510-C-3450 2、持有买入螺纹钢实值看跌期权 RB2510-P-3150 核心逻辑： 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略早餐 1、钢材原料库存整体压力仍较大，预计炉料价格和钢材生产成本中期将承压。铁矿方 面，本周 45 座港口进口铁矿库存 1 ...

| ITG 国贸期货 | ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 日度策略参考 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 | | | | ITG 国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 | ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ITG 国贸期货 | 发布日期：2025/05/07 研究院：李泽钜 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 投资咨询号：Z0000116 从业资格号：F0251925 ITG 国贸期货 行业板块 品种 趋势研判 ITG 国贸期货 股指 震荡 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 国债 震荡 宏观金融 | | ITG 国贸期货 | | ITG 国贸期货 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 节后开盘避免追高，关注中小盘弹性释放机会，多头品种上主要考虑中证 1 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：随着国内供应预期改善，现货华北、东北现货价格延续大幅下跌趋势。豆类期价整体跌幅明显 扩大。后期进口大豆到港量迎来峰值，油厂采购前置化解供应短缺风险，下游集中备货过后，后续备货心 态回归谨慎。随着市场预期转向，豆类期价累积的风险溢价持续回吐风险，价格明显偏弱。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解 ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.04.28 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：玻璃空头格局明确，工业硅承压，沪镍成本支撑坚挺。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： | 1.地产政策持稳，玻璃厂旺季累库，玻璃 FG509 前空持有； | | --- | | 2.库存继续累积，工业硅 SI2506-C-9000 卖看涨期权持有； | | 3.矿端紧张延续，沪镍卖出看跌期权 NI2506P120000 头寸持有。 | 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 政策预期降温，震荡格局延续 上周 A 股延续横盘整理，科技与红利主题反复轮动，沪深两市 | | | | | | 成交额维持在 1.2 万亿元左右。从行业来看，上周综合金融、汽车、 | | | | | | 电力及新能源板块涨幅居前，食品饮料、消费者服务、房地产跌幅 | | | | | | 居前。 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 期货市场随现货指数震荡调整，上周五 IF、IH、IC 和 IM 涨跌 | | 张舒绮 | 联 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price reached a high of 3393 in April, with a monthly increase of 437 points and a year-to-date increase of 779 points, indicating a significant upward trend compared to the previous two years' range of 1100-1375 [1] - Current resistance levels for gold are noted at 3407 for the 1-hour upper band and 3415 for the 4-hour Bollinger band, with further resistance at 3438 on the 12-hour chart [1] - Support levels are identified at 3368, 3355, and 3345, with a potential change in the upward structure if these levels are broken [1] Group 2 - For aggressive traders, a light short position is suggested at 3400, with additional shorts at 3407 and 3414, targeting 3383-3367 [2] - A long position is recommended if the price retraces to 3378, with a stop loss at 3367 and a target of 3390-3400 [4] Group 3 - The oil price has shown two consecutive weeks of gains but has not broken the resistance at 65.2, indicating a potential downward correction [4] - Key resistance levels for oil are at 64.5 and 65.2, while support is seen at 62.9 and 62.5, with a further reference point at 61.7 [4] - A strategy for oil includes shorting at 64-64.5, with a target of 63.2-62.5, and a long position at 62-61.7 [5][6]

2025年04月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期趋势偏弱，多PX空PTA | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多SC空PTA | 2 | | MEG：中期趋势偏弱，多PTA空MEG止盈 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：震荡承压 | 7 | | 沥青：油价暂稳，区间震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：低位震荡 | 11 | | PP：价格震荡，成交偏弱 | 13 | | 烧碱：反弹难持续 | 14 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 18 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 20 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 22 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 24 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 26 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 27 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 30 | | 燃料油：夜盘震荡上行，下方仍有支撑 | 32 | | 低硫燃料油：暂时弱于高硫，外盘高低硫价差小幅收窄 | 32 | | 集运指数（欧线）：低位震荡，10-12反套轻仓持有 | 33 | | 短纤：短期震荡市，中期仍有压力 | 37 | | 瓶 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手）,未点价，想接货， 到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双方会平 仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷，利润 越来少，限制棉花涨幅。由于特朗惠普 2.0 时代，中美博弈才开始，面 对出口严峻的形势以及国内稳定经济的组合拳，上半年胜负为明还相安 无事，主要区间震荡，但是到了下半年，我们要面对几个变数，一是新 疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉花，其他种 植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新年度棉花丰 产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已 经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 ...