1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The macro situation is improving, driving up risk appetite, but different varieties in various sectors show diverse trends and require corresponding investment strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Equity Index**: The hedging sector is strong, and the overall equity index is adjusting downward. The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center is moving up. Be cautious of chasing high [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: At the beginning of the month, the capital interest rate continued to decline, and the sentiment of treasury bond futures was strong, but the market temporarily lacked the impetus to break through the previous situation [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations again, suppressing the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut. The gold price fluctuates in the range of $3300 - 3400, and the silver price fluctuates in the range of $36 - 37 [3]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC disk shows a shock, and the EC08 main contract fluctuates in the range of 1800 - 2000 [3]. - **Steel and Black Metals**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. The black sentiment has improved, and the anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. The coal mine's resumption of production is expected to strengthen, and the spot is running strongly [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The copper price is difficult to weaken without the implementation of the 232 investigation. The high copper price restrains downstream procurement. The alumina has frequent ore - end disturbances, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Macroeconomic uncertainty and OPEC's production increase expectations drag down the disk center of gravity. Attention should be paid to the impact of summer demand changes on the market [3]. - **Chemicals**: The sentiment side is more dominant than the weak fundamentals. The supply - side optimization expectation drives the market, but there are also problems such as high valuation and weak demand expectations [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Grains and Oils**: The overall trend of oils and fats is a narrow - range shock adjustment. The overseas sugar supply outlook is relatively loose, and the downstream cotton market remains weak [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The entry of secondary fattening and the reduction of group supply make the spot sentiment strong [3]. Special Commodities Sector - **Glass and Rubber**: The market sentiment of glass has improved at the beginning of the month. The rubber price is boosted by the macro recovery and storage news, but the fundamental weakening is expected [3]. - **New Energy Materials**: The polycrystalline silicon has no further positive factors, and the lithium carbonate disk maintains a relatively strong trend under the influence of sentiment [3].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着美国农业部的种植面积报告和库存报告公布，数据喜忧参半，美豆期价近弱远强，美豆种 植面积低于预期兑远月美豆期价构成支撑。种植面积争议尘埃落地后，市场焦点转向 7-8 月天气扰动下单 产的调整，这也将成为影响美豆期价的核心。短期豆类期价下探空间受限，随着市场情绪逐渐回稳，豆粕 期价或转为震荡偏强运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：油脂市场窄幅波动，市场情绪逐渐回稳，资金变化不大 ...

2025年07月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：逢低正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG止盈 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行格局延续 | 6 | | 沥青：窄幅震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期震荡为主 | 10 | | PP：现货下跌，成交平淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：现货降价未结束，但需关注液氯的影响 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 25 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 28 | | 燃料油：夜盘偏弱震荡，短期波动下降 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅调整，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：降价拐点延后，08震荡整理；逢高布空10 | 31 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 35 | | 瓶片： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with good planting and growth conditions in the US, while domestic soybean meal has good demand but obvious inventory pressure [4][6]. - Raw sugar has declined due to the expected increase in global supply, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively in the short term [12]. - Palm oil is in the stage of production increase and inventory accumulation, domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory - building period, and rapeseed oil has a pattern of oversupply but strong bottom support [20]. - US corn has good growth conditions, and domestic corn supply is relatively scarce, with spot prices expected to be strong in the short term and futures to fluctuate narrowly [27][29]. - The pig market's supply - side pressure has eased, and the overall price is expected to be weak [35]. - Peanut spot trading is scarce, and the 10 - contract peanut is expected to be strong in the short term but may decline in the medium - to - long term [41]. - The profit of eggs per catty is in a loss or flat state, and the upward space of the 8 - 9 - month contracts depends on the amount of culled chickens [50]. - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples, and the apple futures price in July is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [54]. - The cotton market is affected by macro - trade policies and fundamentals. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [61]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**：CBOT大豆指数跌0.96%至1033.25美分/蒲，CBOT豆粕指数跌0.42%至286.5美金/短吨 [2]. - **相关资讯**：美豆新作种植面积8340万英亩，6月1日美国大豆结转库存10.1亿蒲；美国大豆优良率66%，出苗率94%，开花率17%，结荚率3%；6月27日当周油厂大豆压榨量248.78万吨，开机率69.93%，大豆库存665.87万吨，豆粕库存69.16万吨 [2][3]. - **逻辑分析**：国际大豆供需宽松，美豆种植生长好但出口一般，巴西产量高卖货慢，阿根廷豆粕压力大；国内豆粕需求好但库存压力明显 [4][6]. - **策略建议**：单边低点少量布局多单，套利MRM09价差扩大，期权观望 [7]. Sugar - **外盘情况**：ICE美糖主力合约跌0.52（3.11%）至16.19美分/磅 [7]. - **重要资讯**：巴西中南部6月上半月甘蔗压榨量预计3987万吨，糖产量252万吨；国内产区白糖报价稳中上升；埃及2026年将实现食糖自给自足，2024/25榨季食糖产量260万吨 [8][9][11]. - **逻辑分析**：原糖受供应增加预期拖累下跌，国内产销节奏快支撑现货，但原糖弱势使配额外进口利润走高，加工糖供应压力将兑现 [12]. - **策略建议**：单边预计短期震荡，套利9 - 1价差止盈，期权虚值比例价差期权 [13][14][15]. Oilseeds and Oils - **外盘情况**：CBOT美豆油主力价格变动 - 0.45%至52.75美分/磅，BMD马棕油主力价格变动 - 0.15%至3981林吉特/吨 [17]. - **相关资讯**：马来西亚6月1 - 30日棕榈油出口量1382460吨，印尼7月毛棕榈油参考价上调；印度取消65000吨毛棕榈油进口订单；美国2025年6月1日大豆库存总量10.1亿蒲式耳，预计种植面积8340万英亩；美国4月用于生物燃料的豆油使用量降至8.29亿磅 [18][19]. - **逻辑分析**：USDA报告后美豆盘面涨跌互现，棕榈油增产累库，国内豆油阶段性累库，菜油供大于求但底部支撑强 [20]. - **交易策略**：单边短期油脂或震荡，回调后适当做多，套利观望，期权观望 [21][22][23]. Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**：CBOT玉米期货外盘回落，12月主力合约回落0.3%，收盘425.0美分/蒲 [26]. - **重要资讯**：CBOT玉米期货收盘互有涨跌，反映美国玉米长势好且供应充足；巴西一茬玉米收割率95.4%，二茬玉米收割率17%；美国玉米优良率73%，吐丝率8%；7月1日北港收购价偏强，华北产区玉米稳定 [27][28]. - **逻辑分析**：美国季度报告持平，外盘玉米企稳，国内玉米供应少，现货相对偏强，09玉米企稳，期现价差缩小 [29]. - **交易策略**：单边外盘09玉米底部震荡，09玉米观望；套利玉米和淀粉套利震荡操作，逢低做扩；期权有现货的可谨慎考虑逢高累沽策略 [30][32][33]. Live Pigs - **相关资讯**：生猪价格震荡偏强，仔猪和母猪价格持平，6月30日全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格上升0.2% [35]. - **逻辑分析**：生猪市场前期规模企业出栏完成进度快，普通养殖户和二次育肥出栏积极性下降，大体重猪源供应减少 [35]. - **策略建议**：单边偏空思路为主，套利LH91正套，期权观望 [36][38]. Peanuts - **重要资讯**：各地花生报价稳定，油厂到货和成交情况一般，花生油报价偏强，花生粕走货少；6月26日国内花生油样本企业花生库存减少6510吨，6月27日花生油库存减少150吨 [39][40]. - **逻辑分析**：花生现货成交少，新季花生稳定，进口量减少，下游消费弱，预计新季种植面积增加，10花生短期偏强震荡，中长期有下跌空间 [41]. - **交易策略**：单边10花生逢高短空，套利观望，期权卖出pk510 - C - 8800期权 [43][44][45]. Eggs - **重要资讯**：全国主流鸡蛋价格多数稳定，部分地区有涨跌；5月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量13.34亿只，样本企业蛋鸡苗月度出苗量4698.5万羽；6月27日一周全国主产区蛋鸡淘鸡出栏量1841万只；6月26日当周全国代表销区鸡蛋销量上升5%；6月26日鸡蛋每斤周度平均盈利 - 0.41元/斤，6月27日蛋鸡养殖预期利润13.84元/羽 [47][48][49]. - **交易逻辑**：单斤鸡蛋利润亏损或持平，盘面期货价格向下空间受限，8、9月合约上涨空间取决于淘汰鸡量 [50]. - **交易策略**：单边梅雨季结束且安全边际高时在远月8、9月合约建仓多单，套利观望，期权卖出看跌期权 [51]. Apples - **重要资讯**：6月18日全国主产区苹果冷库库存量116.49万吨，走货速度环比持平同比减缓；5月鲜苹果进口量1.78万吨，出口量4.55万吨；产地主流成交价格稳定，冷库成交一般；山东烟台栖霞苹果主流价格平稳，2024 - 2025产季栖霞80一二级存储商利润0.9元/斤 [52][53]. - **交易逻辑**：本季苹果库存低支撑早熟苹果开称价格，陕西部分地区坐果略差，7月苹果期货价格大概率震荡略偏强 [54]. - **交易策略**：单边AP10短期逢低建仓多单，套利观望，期权卖出看跌期权 [55][56][57]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**：ICE美棉主力合约跌1.28（1.85%）至68.04美分/磅 [58]. - **重要资讯**：预计美国2025年棉花实际播种面积1012万英亩；截至6月20日，ON - CALL 2512合约上卖方未点价合约增持，24/25年度卖方未点价合约总量减持；棉花现货局部交投略好，基差平稳，2025/26年度新疆新棉预售报价增多 [59][60]. - **交易逻辑**：棉花受中美贸易关系和基本面影响，郑棉短期预计震荡略偏强 [61]. - **交易策略**：单边美棉大概率震荡，郑棉短期震荡偏强，套利观望，期权卖出看跌期权 [61][63].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance in the non-ferrous metals market, influenced by supply and demand factors [1] - Copper prices in Shanghai rose to 78,415 yuan, with a narrowing premium in both Shanghai and Guangdong [1] - The aluminum market showed a decline, with an increase in inventory by 15,000 tons, indicating early signs of seasonal demand weakness [1] Group 2 - The market is experiencing significant divergence, with concerns over supply disruptions easing following a ceasefire in Israel and Palestine [1] - The aluminum and casting aluminum alloy price gap remains large, while the price difference between AL_2511 and AD2511 is only around 400 yuan, suggesting potential trading opportunities [1] - Zinc supply continues to recover, but demand remains weak, leading to a bearish outlook for the zinc market despite recent price rebounds [1]

2025/06/16 -681.41 -1161.78 140 -25 130225 58075 2025/06/17 -797.78 -1366.18 140 -28 128875 58975 2025/06/18 -657.73 -1266.71 140 -30 128250 33150 2025/06/19 -583.20 -1068.47 140 -27 127475 33475 变化 74.53 198.24 0 3 -775 325 本周锌价震荡下跌，受累库预期及宏观扰动影响价格中枢下移。供应端，本周国内TC不变，进口TC小幅回升。6月相比 5月冶炼环比提升2.5万吨左右，矿端加工费月均预计提升150元/吨。需求端，内需边际走弱，华北和华南订单环比下 滑，但刚性仍存，绝对价格下跌过快时下游存在一定点价;海外，欧洲需求较弱，但部分炼厂因为加工费问题生产有一 定阻力，现货升贴水小幅提高。国内，社库震荡，绝对价格下跌升水有抬升，但价格企稳后升水又出现回落，累库加速 拐点预计在六月中旬出现。海外LME库存基本保持不变，5月后震荡去化，主要由于海外锌锭较多流入国内。策略方 面，锌空配思路不变，反弹逢高沽空; ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report covers different commodity futures and options, presenting diverse views for each variety. For example, for pork, it will likely rebound slightly in the short - term and remain weak in the medium - term; for sugar, it will stop falling and stabilize in the short - term and be weak in a volatile manner in the medium - term; for crude oil, it will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term; for PVC, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but lack strong driving forces for continuous increase in the medium - term [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Pork - **Intraday View**: Slight rebound [1] - **Medium - term View**: Remain weak after the rebound [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Short after the rebound [1] - **Core Logic**: Official measures such as state purchases, bans on secondary fattening, and stricter environmental policies have signaled market price stabilization. In the short - term, changes in the average slaughter weight should be monitored, and in the long - term, policy implementation and capacity reduction are key factors. Overall, the price will likely remain weak after a short - term rebound [1]. Sugar - **Intraday View**: Stop falling and stabilize [2] - **Medium - term View**: Weak in a volatile manner [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [2] - **Core Logic**: Internationally, the tense Middle - East situation and weather conditions in major producing countries affect supply. Domestically, although sales are fast and industrial inventory is down, imports are expected to increase, and the overall 25/26 sugar season is expected to be in surplus, leading to a short - term stabilization and medium - term weakening of sugar prices [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate at a high level [5] - **Medium - term View**: Face pressure [5] - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the profitable position of selling out - of - the - money put options on SC2508 [5] - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and OPEC+ policies affect supply. On the demand side, refinery operating rates are rising, but actual downstream demand is weak. In terms of inventory, commercial crude oil inventory is falling, while fuel inventory is rising. Overall, the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term [5][6][7]. PVC - **Intraday View**: Show a warm trend [8] - **Medium - term View**: Lack strong driving forces for continuous increase [8] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8] - **Core Logic**: Cost factors such as power rationing in Inner Mongolia affect supply. Supply has decreased due to plant maintenance. Demand from downstream enterprises has some changes, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but face pressure as demand seasons change [8][9][10].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-13 现货成交转淡，不锈钢横盘振荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-12日沪镍主力合约2507开于121200元/吨，收于120000元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-1.24%，当日成交量 为109748手，持仓量为85673手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘低开后快速下跌至12万附近后横盘振荡，日盘开盘后振荡反弹，午后破位下跌至12万，收大阴 线。成交量较上个交易日有所增加，持仓量较上个交易日有所增加。6月中国精炼镍预估产量37345吨，环比增加 3.75%。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日下调约925元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应下调，日内 镍价跌破12万大关，下游企业仍以按需采购，未出现采购热潮，华南现货相对充足，目前精炼镍供应过剩格局不 改。其中金川镍升水变化-25元/吨至2425元/吨，进口镍升水变化200元/吨至500元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前 一交易日沪镍仓单量为21041（-72.0）吨，LME镍库存为197634（126）吨。 策略 印尼镍矿供应紧缺现象难改，价格变化不大，成本支撑较强，但精炼镍应过剩格局不改。预计近期偏弱下探，中 长线仍 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.12） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：78700-81000 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，世行在报告中预计， 今年发达经济体经济将增长 1.2%，比此前预测低 0.5 个百分点。其中，将美国经济增速从此前的 2.3%大幅下调至 1.4%。欧元区和日本的经 济增速均被下调至 0.7%。 2、供给方面，2025 年 4 月份智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)铜产量同比增加 20.5%至 11.46 万吨，得益于部分矿山技改完成。必和必拓旗下的 Escondida 铜矿 4 月份铜产量同比 增长 31%至 12.84 万吨，这反映高品位矿石的开采效率提升。由嘉能可和英美资源集团联 合经营的另一座大型铜矿 Collahuasi4 月份铜产量同比下降 13.5%至 3.66 万吨，归因于矿石 品位下降或运营调整。全球铜精矿和废铜短期的格局持续。 3、需求方面，5 月，新能源汽车表现尤为突出，单月销量达 130.7 万辆，同比增长 36.9%。电解铜现货市场方面，重庆地区下游消费进入淡季，叠加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish rating for plastics in the unilateral strategy, and no rating for the inter - period strategy [3] Core View - In the traditional off - season of demand, the overall performance of the polyolefin demand side is weak, with weak downstream orders, reduced factory replenishment willingness, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation due to the expected start - up of multiple previously overhauled devices and the limited cost support from the significant decline in international crude oil prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7102 yuan/ton (-4), the PP main contract closed at 6960 yuan/ton (+19), the LL North China spot was 7130 yuan/ton (-10), the LL East China spot was 7180 yuan/ton (+60), the PP East China spot was 7100 yuan/ton (+20), the LL North China basis was 28 yuan/ton (-6), the LL East China basis was 78 yuan/ton (+64), and the PP East China basis was 140 yuan/ton (+1) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 77.4% (+0.6%), the PP operating rate was 77.0% (+1.6%), the PE oil - based production profit was 187.4 yuan/ton (+28.1), the PP oil - based production profit was - 92.6 yuan/ton (+28.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit was - 117.3 yuan/ton (+4.8) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit was - 302.5 yuan/ton (+13.2), the PP import profit was - 472.3 yuan/ton (+3.1), and the PP export profit was 16.1 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 12.9% (-0.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.9% (+0.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.7% (-0.5%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.4% (+0.7%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The petrochemical inventory increased, and the upstream factory inventory and trader inventory were slowly destocked [2]