Group 1 - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized support for financing in key areas and weak links, establishing two special relending programs for technological innovation and inclusive elderly care, with the People's Bank of China providing 60% and 100% relending support for the principal loans respectively [1][4] - Relending is defined as loans from the central bank to financial institutions, with a focus on guiding loan funds to better serve key areas and weak links in the economy [1][3] - The need for technological innovation is highlighted as crucial for achieving high-quality economic development, addressing challenges such as the lack of mastery over core technologies [1][2] Group 2 - Population aging is identified as a significant issue, with over 260 million people aged 60 and above, necessitating financial support for elderly care services [2] - The overall profitability of the elderly care service sector is currently low, indicating a need for policy support to encourage financial institutions to invest in this area [2] - Both technological innovation and elderly care require substantial financial support, particularly in terms of financing, with a call for effective policies to guide financial institutions in these sectors [2][4] Group 3 - The role of relending in China has evolved from primarily injecting base currency to facilitating structural adjustments, effectively guiding credit funds to specific sectors [3] - The model of relending involves financial institutions issuing loans first and then applying for funds from the People's Bank of China, ensuring precise allocation of funds to the real economy [3] - The establishment of special relending programs for technological innovation and elderly care is expected to lower financing costs in these sectors, promoting their development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes that maintaining economic stability will be crucial for stabilizing the exchange rate, with macroeconomic policies focusing on growth as the primary factor for exchange rate stability [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Policy - The PBOC aims to keep the RMB exchange rate flexible and stable, reinforcing expectations and preventing excessive fluctuations [1]. - The current economic fundamentals in China are improving, providing a solid foundation for the RMB's stability despite uncertainties in the USD's performance [1][2]. - The PBOC's stance is clear: it will not seek to devalue the RMB for competitive advantages, maintaining the market's decisive role in exchange rate formation [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy for the second half of the year will focus on stabilizing growth through increased fiscal support, monetary easing, and efforts to stabilize the real estate market [1]. - This approach is expected to mitigate external volatility's impact on the domestic economy and provide crucial support for the RMB exchange rate [1]. Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flow Management - Experts suggest that China should enhance macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows and guide expectations to manage the complexities of international capital movements [3]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy in major economies may lead to increased capital inflows into China, supporting its capital markets [3]. - There is a need for close monitoring of cross-border capital flows to balance higher levels of foreign exchange openness with the support of the real economy and the prevention of external shocks [3].

Group 1 - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy, focusing on legal governance of low-price competition and enhancing market systems [1][2] - The People's Bank of China proposed to strengthen monetary policy adjustments, maintain liquidity, and support financial institutions in increasing credit supply to stabilize economic growth [4][5] - The State Council issued a plan to improve the credit repair system, aiming to create a better social credit environment and facilitate the normal operation of restructured enterprises [6][7] Group 2 - The State Council highlighted the importance of accelerating technological breakthroughs and integrating technological innovation with industrial innovation to enhance competitiveness [8][9] - The National People's Congress Finance and Economic Committee reviewed the 2024 central budget, identifying issues in budget management and suggesting reforms to enhance fiscal policy effectiveness [11][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the overall capital gap pressure may be seasonally large, with a liquidity gap of around 2.4 trillion yuan. The fiscal disturbances are likely to be concentrated in the second half of the month. After a slight easing at the beginning of July, the funds will converge upwards, and the room for further easing is limited [1][2][67]. - In June, the central bank actively supported the cross - quarter period. The overnight funds were generally stable, while the volatility range of 7D funds increased slightly. The over - reserve level may have recovered to a seasonally high level. The second - quarter monetary policy meeting did not mention "reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts" and emphasized "preventing capital idling" and "monitoring long - term yields", indicating limited room for significant capital easing in the future [3][6][46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 6 - Month Review of Capital and Liquidity: Active Support at Quarter - End, Brief Tightening of Capital Prices 3.1.1 Capital Review: Slightly Enlarged Fluctuation Range of 7D at Quarter - End - In June 2025, the central bank actively supported the cross - quarter period. Overnight funds were generally stable, and the 7D funds showed a larger fluctuation range. The 7D weighted price fluctuated more widely compared to the previous month, and the spread between 7D and overnight funds widened at the quarter - end without inversion [6]. - In the early part of June, the upfront operation of 3M term repurchase agreements (1 trillion yuan) made the capital expectation turn looser. In the middle, the 6M repurchase agreement (4000 billion yuan) offset the tax - period disturbances. In the late part, despite the central bank's support, the capital price tightened due to slow institutional cross - quarter operations and high bond market leverage [7]. - The capital stratification pressure in June was not significant, with the spreads at seasonally low levels. The volatility of overnight funds remained low, and the 7D funds were also at a seasonally low level. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly, and the net lending of state - owned banks recovered, while that of money market funds declined [13][18][19]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review: Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut Implemented, Bank Liquidity Level Increased - In terms of liquidity volume, the end - of - month over - reserve may have increased by 7061 billion yuan, and the over - reserve ratio was around 1.57%, at a seasonally high level. However, the narrow over - reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases was still relatively low at around 0.8% [31]. - In open - market operations, the central bank actively increased the reverse - repurchase investment in June, with a net investment of 5359 billion yuan. The MLF investment was 3000 billion yuan, and the net investment of the repurchase agreement was 2000 billion yuan. There was no treasury - deposit operation, and 1000 billion yuan of treasury deposits matured [34][40][42]. 3.2 6 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking: Lujiazui Forum Focused on Global Governance, Monetary Policy Meeting Concerned about Long - Term Interest Rates - In June 2025, the Lujiazui Forum focused on non - bank leverage, and the end - of - month meeting still concerned about capital idling and long - term interest rates. The upfront operation of the 3M repurchase agreement in June signaled the central bank's support for the capital market. The Lujiazui Forum discussed non - bank institution leverage and supervision [46][47]. - The second - quarter monetary policy meeting suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation, emphasizing long - term interest rate risks and preventing capital idling. The large - scale purchase of short - term treasury bonds by large banks and relevant media reports triggered market attention to the central bank's bond - buying operations [49][50]. 3.3 July Gap Prediction: Fiscal Disturbances May Concentrate in the Second Half of the Month 3.3.1 Rigid Gap: Slight Release of Reserves, Large - Scale Repurchase Agreement Maturity - In July, as it is the beginning of the quarter, the reserve release may supplement liquidity by around 1388 billion yuan. The MLF maturity is 3000 billion yuan, and the total maturity of the repurchase agreement is 1.2 trillion yuan (7000 billion yuan for 3M and 5000 billion yuan for 6M) [1][55]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks: Limited Impact of Cash Withdrawal and Non - Financial Institution Deposits on Over - Reserves - In July, cash withdrawal may slightly consume over - reserves by 705 billion yuan, while non - financial institution deposits may slightly supplement over - reserves by 215 billion yuan [1][59]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors: Large - Scale Government Bond Issuance, Fiscal Expenditure Concentrated at Quarter - End - The government bonds' net financing scale in July 2025 may rise to around 1.6 trillion yuan, and the government deposits may freeze around 9000 billion yuan of liquidity, putting pressure on the capital market [60]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment: Pay Attention to the Impact of Large - Scale Payments - The overall capital gap in July is estimated to be around 2.4 trillion yuan. After a slight easing at the beginning of July, the funds will converge upwards, and the room for further easing is limited. The capital disturbance in the middle of the month, especially due to tax payments and government bond payments, deserves attention [1][2][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy of promoting the construction of a unified national market and rectifying low - price and disorderly competition is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but the effect may take a long time to appear. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The 6 - month China Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. After the cross - half - year period, the decline in capital interest rates is beneficial to bond bulls. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.11%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [3] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 491.9 billion yuan [3] - **Funding Market**: On Friday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funding market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.42% (1.47% the previous day) [3] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.77 BP to 1.35%, the 5 - year fell 0.04 BP to 1.49%, the 10 - year rose 0.26 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year rose 0.30 BP to 1.85% [3] - **International Trade**: On July 3, the US government allowed General Electric Aerospace to resume supplying jet engines to Comac. The US also lifted export restrictions on Chinese companies by chip design software developers and ethane producers this week. The US President signed 12 trade letters and plans to send them on Monday. Talks with the EU on trade are progressing, and major news may be announced in the next two days [3] - **Domestic Policy**: Since July 5, 2025, anti - dumping duties have been imposed on imported brandy from the EU. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market and called on local governments to implement policies according to local conditions [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The policy of promoting the construction of a unified national market and rectifying low - price and disorderly competition is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but it may take a long time for the effects to show. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The 6 - month China Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. After the cross - half - year period, the decline in capital interest rates is beneficial to bond bulls. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [4] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band - trading operations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "oscillation" [1] Core View - The macro environment and monetary policy have no significant changes, and the treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - On Thursday, the opening of most main contracts of treasury bond futures rose slightly, with an overall trend of bottom - hunting and recovery, closing with long lower shadows. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.02%, the 10 - year T2509 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.01% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 5.72 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 50.93 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 45.21 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.32% (1.36% on the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.51% on the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.25 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year yield fell 0.42 BP to 1.49%, the 10 - year yield rose 0.11 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year yield rose 0.35 BP to 1.85% [1] - The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) in June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May. The expansion speed of China's service industry slowed down in June due to factors such as the fading effect of the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays [1] - The US unemployment rate in June was reported at 4.1% (market forecast: 4.3%, previous value: 4.2%). The number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 147,000 in June (forecast: an increase of 110,000, previous value: an increase of 139,000). The stronger - than - expected non - farm payroll report prompted traders to withdraw their bets on a Fed rate cut this month [1] Market Logic - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1st pointed out that the construction of a unified national market should be advanced in depth, and the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises should be regulated in accordance with laws and regulations to promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. The policy is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but the effect may take a long time to appear [1] - The regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in the second quarter of 2025 suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation, guiding financial institutions to increase the intensity of currency and credit investment, flexibly grasping the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation, and intensifying the implementation of incremental policies. It also called for observing and evaluating the bond market from a macro - prudential perspective and paying attention to changes in long - term yields [1] - The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous value: 49.5%). After the cross - half - year period, the capital interest rate has been declining continuously, which is beneficial to bond bulls [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [2]

Macroeconomy - The central bank plans to intensify monetary policy regulation, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to explore the normalization of "swap facilities and stock repurchase and increase re - loans" and support securities, funds, and insurance companies to participate in market stability. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7% (+0.2%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5% (+0.2%). However, the PMI of small enterprises dropped to 47.3% (-2.0%)[2] - The closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively compared to the previous day. The basis of IM/IC expanded significantly, while that of IH/IF changed moderately[2] - The four major indices show a pattern of multiple strengths and few weaknesses. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on small and medium - cap index futures on dips, and the opportunity of band trading for large - cap index futures[2] Crude Oil - The situation in the Middle East has eased. The market is speculating about the Fed's potential interest rate cut in July and the expected production increase at the OPEC+ meeting in July. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may seek to increase production to regain lost market share[3] - Trump tweeted that he would lower oil prices and encourage the US to invest heavily in new oil fields. The number of US oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since November 2021. After the cooling of the Iran - Israel conflict, the risk premium has declined significantly, leading to a large - scale decline in crude oil prices. Although the summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US crude oil and refined product inventories continue to decline while refining activities increase, providing some support to oil prices, in the long - term, the price center of crude oil will move downward[3] - Attention should be paid to the support level of around $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract[3] Gold - In May, the year - on - year core PCE was 2.7% (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.6%), and the month - on - month was 0.2% (previous value 0.1%); the year - on - year overall PCE was 2.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, both in line with expectations. The final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was 60.7 (previous value 60.3), and the long - term inflation expectation dropped to 4%. The progress of trade negotiations has weakened the demand for hedging[4] - Powell's congressional testimony released a dovish stance, indicating that if tariffs do not cause a sharp rise in inflation, there may be an interest rate cut in September. The market's pricing of the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 78% (CME data), but there are still differences in the stickiness of inflation[4] - Spot gold may test the resistance area of $3295 - $3306 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and PMI data in June and the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill[6] Silver - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the Senate on June 29. The CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by $2.77 trillion in the next decade. The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. The median interest rate expectation for 2025 is 3.9% (the same as in March), and the expectations for 2026 - 2027 have been raised to 3.6%/3.4%. Seven voting members support no interest rate cut in 2025, and Powell emphasized that "tariff inflation is not a one - time shock"[7] - There is a certain possibility that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. When the Fed's easing expectation increases, the international silver price will show a stronger trend. The key support level is around $35 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data and PMI in June and be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" that may suppress the easing expectation[7] Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 190 yuan/ton. In July, PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 78.61%, a decrease of 2.94% month - on - month. The spot processing fee is 427.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.674 yuan/ton month - on - month. In mid - to - late June, 1.8 million tons of equipment entered the maintenance cycle (accounting for 3.2% of the total capacity), supporting the short - term de - stocking process. However, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in July[8] - The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.63%, a decrease of 0.61% month - on - month, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is 59.01%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month, and the terminal order days are 9.06 days, a decrease of 0.36 days month - on - month. The textile and clothing industry is entering the off - season, the demand side is continuously sluggish, and some enterprises have the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being[8] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 57 yuan/ton. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 60.4%, an increase of 1.4% month - on - month, and the coal - based operating rate is 57.26%, an increase of 0.95% month - on - month. The weekly output is 36.97 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports in East China has decreased by 3.13 tons to 50.57 tons and has been de - stocking for three consecutive weeks[9] - Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, 3 sets of equipment with a total capacity of 1.35 million tons in Iran have stopped production, while the restart plans of Saudi and Malaysian devices have boosted the import expectation. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load have both decreased, and the textile market has entered the off - season with some terminal industries having the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and the price will mainly move in a range. Radical investors can go short on rallies, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports[9] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month[10] - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 78.09%, a decrease of 0.53% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. The domestic downstream products enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 26, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.03% to 57.52 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 38.06% year - on - year. The PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price will still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[10][11] PP - The mainstream prices of PP raffia in North China, East China, and South China are 7174 yuan/ton, 7176 yuan/ton, and 7298 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton[12] - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene last week was 79.30%, a decrease of 0.54% month - on - month. The domestic polypropylene production was 78.92 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with last week, a growth rate of 0.23%, and an increase of 14.52 tons compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 22.55%. The average start - up rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 58.50 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[12] Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 7354 yuan/ton, 7521 yuan/ton, and 7614 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 22 yuan/ton, 42 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton[14] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.48% compared with the previous period. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 44.82 tons, a decrease of 5.12 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%, and the inventory trend continued to decline. The current fundamentals of plastics have not improved significantly, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[14] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 82.21%, a decrease of 4.25% month - on - month, and the soda ash production was 71.68 tons, a decrease of 3.69 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.90%. There were device shutdowns for maintenance in Qinghai and Shaanxi, and the production of Inner Mongolia Boyuan was gradually stabilizing. The supply side still has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the summer maintenance situation[15] - Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 176.69 tons, an increase of 4.02 tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 2.33%. The social inventory is showing a downward trend, with the total amount approaching 280,000 tons, a decrease of more than 30,000 tons. The demand side performance is average. The middle and lower reaches replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. The soda ash market has limited new driving forces except for the reduction in supply. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, inventory changes, device maintenance, and unexpected disturbances[15] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1130 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The operating rate of float glass last week was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.26% month - on - month, and the weekly glass production was 109.09 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.24%. The glass production line has changed frequently recently, and the supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production line[16] - Last week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 69.216 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight - boxes month - on - month, a decline of 0.96%, and the inventory has decreased slightly but the amplitude is limited. The demand side is still weak, and there is no positive driving force. The glass market has limited driving forces, and it is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in enterprise inventory, production line changes, and market sentiment[16] Rubber - The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13,950 yuan/ton, 19,550 yuan/ton, 14,600 yuan/ton, and 13,600 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are 66.09 baht/kg for RSS3, 55.5 baht/kg for latex, 47.95 baht/kg for cup lump, and 61.77 baht/kg for raw rubber[17] - There is an expectation of a缓和 in the trade war, and the Fed has shown some signs of a possible interest rate cut in July. Rubber is in a rebound window with improved sentiment. The domestic whole - latex has started to be harvested, and the production areas in Yunnan have fully started harvesting, while the latex in Hainan has started to increase in volume. The Southeast Asian production areas have fully started harvesting, and the supply is generally loose. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The start - up rate of downstream tire enterprises has decreased for semi - steel tires and increased slightly for all - steel tires. The market is speculating on macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US tariff collection on automobiles and household appliances may seriously suppress the global demand for rubber. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of the rubber downstream[17] Methanol - The spot price in Zhejiang is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1625 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Anhui is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is 2384 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with the previous trading day[18] - The total port inventory has increased to 67.05 tons, an increase of 8.41 tons compared with the previous period. The domestic methanol industry operating rate has reached 91.31%. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the reconstruction work in Iran has started, and the shut - down devices are expected to gradually resume production. However, the problem of natural gas shortage in Iran may continue until winter, and there is still uncertainty in the far - month supply. The start - up rate of MTO devices has dropped to 87.41%, and the start - up rate of MTBE has rebounded to 64.40%. The demand for traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is still weak. The price of steam coal is stable and slightly strong, but it has limited support for the cost of methanol. The short - term futures price will mainly fluctuate. After the geopolitical conflict eases, attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's supply recovery and the accumulation of domestic inventory[18] Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June supply and demand report lowered the global and US ending inventories, but the overall support of the report is limited. The domestic corn market is in the window period of the alternation of old and new grains, and the remaining grain is being continuously consumed. The decreasing inventory in the main production areas has supported the reluctance of traders to sell. However, affected by the substitution effect of wheat and the news of policy grain auctions, the upward momentum of prices may be weakened. The downstream procurement of corn is cautious, and the consumption is weak. The low breeding profit has led to the on - demand procurement of breeding enterprises, and the low operating rate of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses has limited the boosting effect on downstream demand[19] - The main corn contract is in an upward channel, but it is under pressure from the resistance of the upward channel in the short term and has retraced. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2350 yuan/ton at the lower edge of the channel[20] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions vary. Currently, it is the peanut planting season, and the market expects that the domestic peanut planting area will increase year - on - year in 2025. If the weather is normal during this period, the peanut price in the far - month may be under pressure. In the short term, the peanut market has entered the inventory consumption period, and the import of peanuts has decreased, resulting in a low inventory level in each link of the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the low inventory may push the peanut price up due to the replenishment demand[21] -

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current real estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, with economic data in May slightly falling short of expectations and PMI data in June showing a slight improvement. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices may have fully reflected various negative factors. The iron ore market has a relatively high supply of global shipments, and the decline in port inventory has slowed down, putting pressure on futures prices. [2][5] - Technically, the steel futures price maintains a slightly stronger oscillating trend, with strong resistance expected near the 60 - day moving average. The iron ore futures price is in a large - range oscillating pattern, with a long - term downward trend and short - term weak oscillation. [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Thread Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Environment**: The central bank suggests strengthening monetary policy regulation, and the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year has intensified. From January to June, the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 11.8% year - on - year, and the decline was larger than last month. [2] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the production of thread steel increased, factory inventory rebounded, social inventory continued to decline, and total inventory decreased. Apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly. [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with an oscillating mindset. Short - term long positions can be taken after the price stabilizes during a correction, and do not chase the rise. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 1.19% from last week. [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The main basis of thread steel was 117 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the main basis of hot - rolled coil was 64 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The production of national building material steel mills' thread steel was 217.84 tons, up 2.67% from last week; the social inventory of thread steel was 363.4 tons, down 1.45% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Currently, the profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline further. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The decline in port inventory has slowed down, and the proportion of trading ore inventory is relatively high, putting pressure on futures prices. [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Short - term long positions can be taken after the price correction, and do not chase the rise or kill the fall. [5] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 708.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.98% from the previous day and up 0.78% from last week. [5] - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of DCE iron ore futures was 24 yuan/dry ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day. [5] - **Supply and Inventory**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1730.6 tons, down 8.14% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 776.7 tons, down 9.52% from last week. Port inventory totaled 13930.23 tons, up 0.26% from last week. [5] 3. Industry News - On July 1, Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14465.77 tons, a decrease of 28.74 tons from last Monday. Except for the southern and river - side regions, the inventory of imported iron ore at ports in other regions decreased compared with last Monday. [8] - Satellite data showed that from June 23 to June 29, 2024, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1238.4 tons, a decrease of 18.8 tons from the previous period, and the inventory was at a relatively low level since the second quarter. [8]

Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The central bank adjusted its open market operations on July 1, conducting a 131 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40%, and achieving a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1][2] - In the first week of July, the open market faced significant withdrawal pressure, with reverse repos maturing exceeding 2 trillion yuan, including a high of 525.9 billion yuan on July 4 [1][3] - The central bank is expected to flexibly adjust operations based on changes in the funding environment, potentially increasing liquidity or utilizing other monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable liquidity levels [1][4] Group 2: Market Expectations and Reactions - Market expectations suggest that liquidity will remain ample in July, with analysts predicting a minimal liquidity gap post-quarter-end [4][9] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a significant rise on June 30, with the overnight Shibor increasing by 5.10 basis points to 1.4220%, but subsequently dropped after the quarter-end [3][9] - The central bank's decision not to announce the bond trading operations on June 30 has led to speculation that the rules for announcing such operations may have changed to "as needed" rather than at the end of the month [5][6] Group 3: Government Bond Trading Operations - The discussion around the resumption of government bond trading operations has intensified, especially given the seasonal tightening of funds at the end of the quarter [6][8] - Analysts believe that the resumption of government bond trading is inevitable, but the timing will be carefully managed to minimize downward pressure on market yields [7][10] - The central bank's previous suspension of bond buying was attributed to factors such as limited government bond supply and the need to maintain yields at acceptable levels [10][11]

Policy and Economic Environment - The report highlights the focus on the 16th Summer Davos Forum, emphasizing the need for entrepreneurs to play a larger role in the current economic landscape, with discussions centered on global economic challenges and opportunities for collaboration [10][11] - The State Council meeting discussed accelerating the construction of a technology powerhouse, emphasizing the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation to drive economic growth [12][13] Equity Market Analysis - The A-share market saw significant rebounds in June, with the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 4.3% and 5.22% respectively, driven by positive developments in US-China negotiations and financial stability measures [4][27] - The report notes that the MSCI China A-share Index increased by 3.03% in June, reflecting improved market sentiment [27] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicated a shift towards increased monetary policy easing, with a net withdrawal of 553.9 billion yuan in June, highlighting the need for liquidity support amid seasonal funding pressures [4][28] - The report mentions that the PBOC's second-quarter monetary policy meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable financing environment to support economic recovery [28] Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates a general upward trend in non-ferrous metals and a significant rebound in crude oil prices, while precious metals experienced a pullback [4] - The impact of US tariff policies is noted as a contributing factor to market dynamics, particularly in the copper market [4][17] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The US dollar index fell by 2.68% in June, closing at 96.77, influenced by uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies and the approaching debt ceiling [5][28] - The report suggests that the foreign exchange market remains stable, with a balanced supply-demand situation and a stable RMB exchange rate [28] Industry Policy Insights - The report discusses the ongoing efforts to enhance the integration of technology and industry, with a focus on supporting innovation and addressing key technological challenges [12][13] - It highlights the importance of structural policies to support sectors such as real estate and technology, indicating a shift in focus towards stabilizing the real estate market [28][29]