Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from April, returning to the expansion zone after briefly falling below 50%[3] - The new orders index recorded 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from April, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months[1] - Equipment manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in this sector[1] - The coal-fired power generation's cumulative output in May increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cumulative output for the year decreased by 6.8%[6] Group 3: External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index for May is 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points from April, reflecting cautious optimism in external demand[15] - The government plans to increase support for consumer goods replacement, raising the special bonds for this initiative from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan[12] - The automotive market saw a retail scale of approximately 1.85 million vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%[13]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI in May rose to 49.5%, remaining below the expansion threshold but showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month[4] - The production index increased to 50.7%, indicating a return to expansion after a period of contraction[7] - New export orders index rose by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting a slight improvement in external demand[7] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply and demand improvements are likely to be short-lived due to uncertainties in tariff policies, leading to a potential decline in production after the current export surge[2] - Companies are actively reducing inventory, as indicated by the finished goods inventory index dropping to 46.5%[7] - The purchasing price index for raw materials fell to 46.9%, while the factory price index decreased to 44.7%, indicating increasing downward pressure on prices[7] Group 3: Sector Performance - The construction PMI fell to 51%, primarily due to reduced intensity in residential construction, while infrastructure construction remains strong[7] - The service sector PMI increased to 50.2%, driven by holiday-related activities, but still lags behind historical averages since 2013[7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To prevent a downward spiral in quantity and price, early policy intervention is necessary to support domestic demand and clarify anti-competitive regulations[2] - There is a need for measures to stimulate demand to avoid a rapid decline in production once the current export surge subsides[2]

Core Viewpoint - The national manufacturing PMI for May recorded at 49.5%, showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a near median level for the same period over the past five years [1][3][4]. Demand and Supply - Both demand and supply sides have improved, with external demand rebounding more strongly than internal demand. The new order index rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export order index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5% [6][12]. - The production index rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing production [6][10]. Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant growth in new orders, with indices above 52%. Consumer goods manufacturing also saw a stable increase, with new export orders rising over 6 percentage points into the expansion zone [1][8]. - However, some industries, such as textiles and non-ferrous metal processing, reported new order and production indices below the critical point, indicating insufficient release of production and demand [6][8]. Price Trends - The decline in price indices has narrowed significantly, with raw material prices and factory gate prices both decreasing by only 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. This indicates that the ability of companies to pass on costs has not yet recovered [10][12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index recorded at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point. The construction sector showed a business activity index of 51%, indicating ongoing expansion [12][13]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery driven by holiday consumption demand [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro sentiment is generally bullish, and with the entry of long - position funds, the market pulled up rapidly in the afternoon with significant volatility. Risk - preferring investors can consider short - selling on rallies [2][3]. - It's necessary to focus on the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies, and the final result of the court ruling [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary Based on Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On May 26, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1247.05 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1719.79 points, up 18.9%. On May 23, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02%; for the European route, it was 783.58 points, up 4.35%; for the US - West route, it was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On May 23, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1586.12 points, up 106.73 points. The SCFI European route price was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12%; the US - West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2%; for the European route, it was 1392.61 points, down 2.6%; for the US - West route, it was 908.14 points, up 3.6% [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - Eurozone: In May, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); the service PMI preliminary value was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [2]. - US: In May, the Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2); the service PMI preliminary value was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8); the composite PMI preliminary value was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [3]. 3.3 Market Conditions - On May 29, the main contract 2508 closed at 2131.0, with a 6.34% increase, a trading volume of 131,600 lots, and an open interest of 46,600 lots, an increase of 2813 lots from the previous day [3]. - Spot freight rates are gradually stabilizing, which supports the market to some extent. However, due to the unclear peak - season momentum, there was intense competition between long and short positions in the morning. In the afternoon, the market price was quickly pulled up and then fluctuated slightly, possibly due to the generally bullish macro situation and the entry of some long - position funds [3]. 3.4 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short - sell when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where near - term freight rates are stronger than long - term ones. It is necessary to pay attention to the result of the court ruling. Currently, the market is volatile, and it is advisable to mainly use positive - spread arbitrage [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies. Wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [4]. 3.5 Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin of the company for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4].

Key Points - The focus for financial data and events on May 30, 2025, includes various economic indicators from the US, Japan, Switzerland, and Canada [1][3] - Key US economic data to be released includes the Core PCE Price Index year-on-year and month-on-month, personal spending month-on-month, and the Chicago PMI for May [1] - Japan's unemployment rate for April and Switzerland's KOF Economic Leading Indicator for May are also significant data points to monitor [1]

Core Insights - The macroeconomic policies in China are being intensified to address insufficient domestic demand and increased external shocks, with a focus on enhancing corporate financing needs and investment willingness [2][4][6] CPI - In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from -0.7% to -0.1%, aligning with market expectations, primarily due to the impact of tariff policies and falling international oil prices [4] - The core CPI remained low at 0.5%, indicating a weak domestic price level, prompting continued monetary and fiscal policy efforts to stimulate consumption and investment [4] PPI - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to -2.7% in April, marking a decline for two consecutive months, influenced by international factors and insufficient domestic demand [6] - The central government has proposed more proactive macro policies to counteract these challenges, including a package of financial policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [6] PMI - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with declines in production and new orders [8] - The non-manufacturing PMI also decreased to 50.4%, reflecting a slowdown in the service and construction sectors [8] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in the first four months of 2025 grew by 4.0% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment contributing significantly to overall growth [12] - Real estate investment showed a larger decline, while infrastructure investment remained stable due to government policy support [12] Credit - New RMB loans in April totaled 280 billion, a decrease of 450 billion year-on-year, with corporate loans being the main drag on credit growth [15] - The decline in consumer loans indicates weak consumer sentiment, while medium to long-term loans are affected by real estate market conditions [15] M2 - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.0% in April, reflecting an expansion in monetary supply supported by policy measures [19] - The growth rate of M2 outpaced that of narrow money (M1), indicating limited improvement in corporate liquidity and cautious investment sentiment [19]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures experienced an overall increase, with the main Shanghai gold contract priced at 777.30 CNY per gram, up by 0.29%, and the main Shanghai silver contract at 8280.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.49% [1] - International precious metal prices showed mixed results, with COMEX gold priced at 3332.10 USD per ounce, down by 0.76%, and COMEX silver at 33.57 USD per ounce, down by 0.21% [1] Group 2 - As of May 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 227,000, slightly below the market expectation of 230,000, indicating a healthy job market despite trade policy uncertainties [3] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.3, while the services PMI initial value also reached 52.3, marking a two-month high [3] - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a 94.4% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, with a 5.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4]

Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now indicates a 2.4% actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025, with a -0.1% adjustment excluding gold impacts[1] - The actual personal consumption Nowcast rose to 3.7% last week, indicating strong consumer spending[1] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 227,000, below expectations, while continuing claims increased to 1.903 million, exceeding forecasts[1] Manufacturing and PMI Data - The US May PMI rose to 52.5, with both manufacturing and services PMIs at 52.3, surpassing expectations and previous values[2] - Eurozone and Japan's manufacturing PMIs also exceeded expectations, at 49.4 and 49 respectively, although service sectors showed weakness[2] Policy Developments - The US House passed the "Beautiful Act," which includes tax cuts, defense spending, and an increase in the debt ceiling, with fiscal expansion slightly exceeding expectations[3] - Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, while Japan softened its stance on tariffs[3] Financial Market Trends - US stock markets experienced a pullback, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones down 2.6%, 2.5%, and 2.5% respectively[4] - The yield on 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year US Treasuries rose by 2bp, 8bp, and 15bp to 4.0%, 4.51%, and 5.04% respectively[4] - The US dollar index fell by 1.8% to 99.1, while the euro and yen appreciated by 0.9% to 1.13 and 1.3% to 143.3 respectively[4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures increased by 5.6% to $3365.8 per ounce, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.7% to $65.6 per barrel[4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index are primarily driven by the reassessment of US fiscal and credit risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating and the anticipated increase in federal debt due to large-scale tax cuts and expansionary fiscal policies [1] Group 1: US Economic Indicators - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.1% due to rising fiscal risks [1] - In April, the foreign exchange settlement deficit slightly widened, with increased corporate foreign exchange transactions indicating heightened trading activity [1] - The US PMI preliminary reading for May exceeded expectations, although Moody's downgrade has weakened confidence in the dollar [1] Group 2: China Economic Indicators - China's cross-border capital inflow remains strong, with a stable goods trade surplus [1] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - The volume of foreign capital in Chinese bond custody has rebounded, indicating improved foreign investment sentiment [1] Group 3: European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for April was reported at 2.2% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [1] - The preliminary composite PMI for May was recorded at 49.5, with the services PMI at 48.9, indicating a contraction in the services sector [1] - The European Commission has revised down its growth forecasts for the next two years [1] Group 4: Japanese Economic Indicators - Japan's manufacturing sector remains in contraction, with the May PMI data showing a slight recovery but still below the neutral line [1] - The services and composite PMIs in Japan have declined [1] - Japan's April exports grew by 2% year-on-year, while the CPI for April was reported at 3.6% year-on-year [1] Group 5: Currency Outlook - The US dollar is expected to maintain a weak position in the short term, with potential short-selling opportunities following a period of range-bound trading [1] - The Japanese yen shows short-term momentum [1] - The decline in US credit is unexpectedly strengthening the euro, with attention on the progress of US-EU tariff negotiations [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.23」 铝类市场周报 供给稳定需求略降，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铝震荡走势，周涨跌幅+0.12%，报20155元/吨。氧化铝震荡偏强，周涨跌+9.65%，报3169元/吨。 行情展望：国际方面，标普全球公布数据显示，美国5月制造业PMI升至三个月高点52.3。服务业PMI初值52.3，创下两个月 新高。新订单增速达到一年多来最快，价格指标升至近三年最高，制造业出口订单连续第二个月收缩，就业指标亦下降。国 内方面，国务院副总理何立峰会见美国摩根大通集团董事长兼首席执行官杰米·戴蒙时指出，中国欢迎美资企业深化对华互利 合作，推动中美经贸关系健康稳定持续发展。基本面上，原料端，国内铝土矿进口大幅提升，由于澳大利亚逐渐走出雨季影 响发运量稳步恢复，加之几内亚矿在雨季前的集中发运，预 ...