Report Information - Report Title: "Accumulation of Inventory Continues, Macroeconomic Factors Affect Prices" - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Jundong - Company: Zhongtai Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The LME zinc price has risen due to the weakening of the US dollar and the warming of China's macro - economy, and the domestic zinc inventory is increasing [6][47] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The LME zinc price has increased under the influence of a weaker US dollar and positive trends in China's macro - economy [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Multiple charts show the historical data of LME and SHFE zinc inventory and warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [9] 2. Raw Material End - **Processing Fees**: The supply of zinc concentrate in the market is becoming looser, and the domestic concentrate processing fee (TC) remains stable at 3900 yuan/metal ton [14] - **Zinc Concentrate开工率**: Charts present the historical data of zinc concentrate new sample开工率, large - scale, small - scale and medium - scale mine开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [17] - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: Charts show the historical data of global zinc concentrate monthly output, SMM zinc concentrate new sample output, zinc concentrate monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [19] - **Refined Zinc Monthly Output**: Charts display the historical data of SMM zinc ingot monthly output and its predicted value from 2020 - 2025 [22] - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for raw material procurement [23] 3. Smelting End - **Refined Zinc Import**: Charts show the historical data of refined zinc monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [28] - **Refined Zinc开工**: The profit margin of smelters is continuously expanding, benefiting from the increase in TC and the increase in by - product sulfuric acid revenue, and the smelting profit has improved significantly compared with the previous period [29] - **Refined Zinc Output**: Some enterprises have resumed production after maintenance, and the overall开工率 has increased due to the improved processing economy of imported ores [32] 4. Demand End - **Refined Zinc Export**: Charts show the historical data of China's refined zinc monthly export volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [37] - **Downstream Inventory**: Charts present the historical data of SMM downstream zinc processing material enterprise monthly raw material inventory, smelter zinc alloy monthly finished product inventory, smelter zinc ingot monthly finished product inventory, smelter monthly finished product inventory days and SMM refined zinc smelter monthly finished product inventory from 2020 - 2025 [39] - **Downstream Output and开工率**: July - August is the traditional consumption off - season, and terminal orders are weak. Charts show the historical data of SMM galvanized weekly output, SMM galvanized weekly开工率, SMM die - casting weekly output, SMM die - casting weekly开工率, SMM zinc oxide weekly output and SMM zinc oxide weekly开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [41][42] - **Product Prices**: Charts show the historical data of Zamak5 zinc alloy average price, Zamak3 zinc alloy average price, zinc oxide ≥99.7% average price and hot - dip galvanized national average price from 2020 - 2025 [43] 5. Zinc Inventory - As of August 7, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 113,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared with July 31 and an increase of 5,900 tons compared with August 4, indicating an increase in domestic inventory [47] - Charts show the historical data of SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin three - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM zinc ingot bonded area weekly inventory, SMM refined zinc smelter sample enterprise weekly finished product inventory (factory warehouse inventory and in - transit inventory) from 2020 - 2025 [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In July 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) was flat year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 1.6%, non - food prices increased by 0.3%, consumer goods prices decreased by 0.4%, and service prices increased by 0.5%. From January to July, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [5][51]. - In July 2025, the producer price index for industrial products (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 4.5%. From January to July, the average PPI decreased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [5][58]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's gold reserves were 73.96 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the end of June 2025, increasing for 9 consecutive months. It is expected that the central bank will continue to increase its gold holdings [6]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were $3.2922 trillion, a decrease of $25.2 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, remaining above $3.2 trillion for 20 consecutive months [6]. - In the first 7 months of this year, China's goods trade showed an upward trend. The total value of imports and exports was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year [6]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing industry's prosperity level declined seasonally and generally remained in a downward trend [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 are presented. Different industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, and services have their respective growth rate trends [8]. - The contribution rates of different industries to GDP growth from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, and various service - related industries [13]. Industry Industrial Growth Rate - The year - on - year growth rates of added value of major industries from May to June in the past two years are provided, including coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing industries [22]. Major Industrial Output - The output data of major industrial products from June 2024 to June 2025 are listed, including energy products, industrial raw materials, and finished products [24]. Industry Electricity Consumption - The year - on - year growth rates of electricity consumption of major industries from March 2024 to May 2025 are given, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and manufacturing [33]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to June 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The main industry profit situations vary, with some industries showing growth and others decline [36]. - From January to June 2025, the mining industry's profit was 429.41 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30.3%; the manufacturing industry's profit was 2.59006 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry's profit was 417.04 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [41]. Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of May 2025, the finished product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 6.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The overall inventory is in a stage from passive replenishment to passive destocking [46]. Price Index CPI - In July 2025, the CPI was flat year - on - year. Food prices decreased, while non - food prices increased. The average CPI from January to July decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [51]. - The year - on - year and month - on - month data of CPI sub - items from July 2024 to July 2025 are presented, including food, clothing, housing, and other categories [52]. PPI - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 4.5%. The average PPI from January to July decreased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year [58]. - The year - on - year data of PPI for major industries from July 2024 to July 2025 are provided, including production materials, living materials, and various mining and manufacturing industries [58][61]. - The year - on - year data of industrial producer purchasing prices from July 2024 to July 2025 are given, including fuel power, black metal materials, and other categories [62]. Main City Newly - Built Residential Prices - The year - on - year and month - on - month data of the price index of newly - built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities from June 2015 to June 2025 are shown, including data for first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities [63][64][66].

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B shows a seasonal decline of 0.43, indicating a slowdown in domestic economic growth momentum[1] - Investment sector sentiment has improved, while consumption and real estate sectors have seen a decline in sentiment[1] - Fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is at 2.80%, retail sales year-on-year growth is at 4.80%, and exports year-on-year growth is at 7.20%[3] Price Trends - Food prices have increased by approximately 1.0% month-on-month, while non-food prices have decreased by about -0.1%, leading to an overall CPI increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year CPI drop to -0.3%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, with a significant year-on-year recovery to -2.6%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of August 15, 2025[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 15, 2025, is 2.42%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,196.51[20]

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, becoming the main driving force [1] Policy Signals - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the need to expand high-level opening-up and acknowledged the complex changes in the development environment [3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of "sustained efforts and timely increases" in economic policies, indicating that previous policies have been effective [3] Economic Challenges - Uncertainties in US-China tariff negotiations and adjustments in the real estate market were identified as key challenges for the second half of the year [4] - The need for a shift from previous policies to new development models and urban renewal was emphasized [4] Market Competition - The concept of "anti-involution" was discussed, focusing on the need for a governance framework to eliminate low-price disorderly competition and promote product quality [4][6] - The government should facilitate market-driven solutions for eliminating outdated production capacities while maintaining regulatory oversight [6] Real Estate and Stock Market - Experts believe the real estate sector has passed its most dangerous phase, with a need for deep adjustments and a new development model [6] - The stability of the stock market is closely linked to economic growth, with recent innovations in technology and industry upgrades providing a foundation for investor confidence [6]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Performance - July CPI year-on-year growth remained at 0%, against expectations of -0.1% and a previous value of +0.1%[3] - July PPI year-on-year remained at -3.6%, matching the previous value and slightly worse than the expected -3.4%[3] - Core CPI in July increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month above seasonal levels[6] Group 2: Price Trends - Food CPI month-on-month decline narrowed, with a 0.2% increase to -0.2%[5] - Prices of fresh vegetables and pork rebounded, with fresh vegetable CPI increasing by 0.6% month-on-month to +1.3%[16] - Physical consumption prices outperformed service consumption prices, with non-food CPI rising by 0.5% month-on-month[6] Group 3: Future Inflation Predictions - August CPI is expected to decline year-on-year to around -0.3%, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.1%[30] - PPI is anticipated to rise in August, with projections indicating a year-on-year increase due to base effects and expectations of price recovery[31] - The overall average CPI for 2025 is projected to be around 0% year-on-year, while PPI is expected to average between -2% and -3%[33] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes and significant fluctuations in commodity prices[36]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - US non-farm employment data for July fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions for May and June, indicating a weakening job market[2] - The unemployment rate is rising, influenced by immigration policies that lower labor participation rates[2] - Forward-looking indicators such as manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employment components have reached recent lows, reflecting overall economic weakness[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The divergence in interest rate expectations between the US and Europe is notable, with US officials expressing concerns about the labor market while maintaining a neutral stance overall[5] - European inflation data shows July CPI growth near central bank targets, reinforcing confidence in keeping policy rates unchanged[5] Group 3: China's Economic Performance - China's export growth has exceeded expectations, supported by low base effects and stable demand from non-US countries, while exports to the US have weakened due to diminishing tariff relief effects[5] - Domestic demand remains uncertain, with imports primarily driven by integrated circuits and high-tech products, while the improvement in bulk commodity imports is largely price-driven[5] Group 4: Policy Developments - Recent government policies, such as the implementation of childcare subsidies and the promotion of free preschool education, aim to alleviate financial pressures on low- and middle-income families and support long-term population development[5] Group 5: Commodity Price Movements - Prices for non-ferrous metals have generally increased, while oil prices have declined, reflecting broader market dynamics[4]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/08/08 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China's exports grew by 7.2% in July, and the PBOC increased its gold rese ...

Economic Performance - In May, China's economy demonstrated resilience, with key indicators such as industrial added value and service production index showing stable growth [1][3] - The total value of goods imports and exports increased by 2.7% year-on-year in May, with exports rising by 6.3% [4][1] - From January to May, the industrial added value and service production index grew by 6.3% and 5.9% respectively, indicating overall stability compared to the first quarter [3] Consumer Market - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by holiday effects and policies promoting consumption [5][6] - The online retail sales of physical goods grew by 6.3% from January to May, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [6][5] - The average urban unemployment rate was 5.2% from January to May, with a slight decrease to 5.0% in May [4] Industrial Sector - The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.6% in May, while the equipment manufacturing sector saw a growth of 9% [9][8] - The production of industrial robots surged by 32% year-on-year, and the output of new energy vehicles rose by 40.8% [3][9] - Despite external pressures, the manufacturing sector remains a key driver of industrial growth, with significant contributions from high-tech and equipment manufacturing [9][8] Policy Impact - The implementation of financial policies, including interest rate cuts, has provided crucial support for stable economic performance [2] - Consumption policies, such as the "old for new" program, have effectively stimulated consumer spending [6][7] - The government is expected to continue enhancing consumption policies to further boost consumer confidence [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Analyze the lead - zinc market from a global macro perspective, exploring the relationship between macro factors and lead - zinc, and the impact of "anti - involution" and fiscal policies on lead - zinc prices [1][6] - There are signs of endogenous kinetic energy repair, including the possible start of an active inventory replenishment cycle and improvement in PMI [36][39] - The central price of lead - zinc is related to GDP growth and industrial added - value [42][44] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Macro and Lead - Zinc Relationship - In terms of macro - attributes, the order is gold > copper > aluminum > zinc > lead, and lead has a very weak macro - attribute [4] - Analyze the relationship between lead - zinc and coal, copper, and use coal to understand "anti - involution" and copper to understand global fiscal policies [6] 3.2 "Anti - Involution" and Lead - Zinc Price Performance - Historically, during "supply - side reforms", lead - zinc often rose together with stocks and commodities. It is necessary to analyze the intensity of the current "anti - involution" [9] - From 2010 to 2025, lead and zinc prices showed different percentage changes during different "anti - involution" periods. For example, from 2016 - 2017, lead rose 141.6% and zinc rose 212.9%, while since July 2025, lead decreased 3.1% and zinc increased 2.2% [11] 3.3 Reasons for "Anti - Involution" - "Involution" refers to a vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources without overall revenue growth, and production factor prices deviate from value [15] - The purpose of "anti - involution" is to reverse the situation of "quantity increase and price decrease". In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, and the PPI - CPI gap continued to widen [18] 3.4 Fiscal Policies and Lead - Zinc Market - Fiscal policies are crucial as high resident and enterprise leverage ratios make fiscal policies determine the economic performance differences among countries. For example, China's exports are related to fiscal policies [30] - China's fiscal policy is continuously strengthening, and the US is also implementing fiscal expansion. Global major countries are all conducting fiscal expansion [33][34] 3.5 Endogenous Kinetic Energy Repair - There are signs of an active inventory replenishment cycle (profit increase and inventory increase), and PPI and industrial enterprise profits have basically bottomed out [38] - From the perspective of the difference between enterprise and resident deposits, PMI is expected to improve after the third quarter [41] 3.6 Determinants of Lead - Zinc Central Price - The IMF has raised this year's GDP growth forecast to 3% and predicts a slight recovery of global economic growth in 2025, which is related to the central price of lead - zinc [42] - Industrial added - value provides a more accurate perspective for determining the central price of lead - zinc [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Crude Oil - The macro - economic data in Europe and the US are positive, and tariff negotiations have made progress, boosting market sentiment. However, high - interest - rate pressure persists, and there are differences in expectations for a September rate cut. Attention should be paid to actions related to tariffs next week [9]. - OPEC supply is generally stable. The EU's sanctions on Russian refined oil will affect India and Turkey's purchase of Russian oil and intensify competition for Middle - Eastern oil. The US may relax sanctions on Venezuela due to heavy - oil shortages [9]. - Global refinery maintenance will decrease by 640,000 barrels per day next week, and the current peak - season demand supports oil prices. But the room for further increase is limited [9]. - US and ARA crude inventories are decreasing, and US refinery operations are at a high level. Gasoline and diesel inventories are at relatively low levels, and the demand for crude oil processing is expected to be strong [9]. - Brent and WTI spreads are falling, and Dubai spreads are slightly rebounding. Overall, the spreads' support for oil prices is weakening [9][16]. - Diesel cracking remains high, but there are signs of weakening in both gasoline and diesel cracking, and the support for oil prices will weaken in the future [9][18]. - In the short term, although macro - sentiment is positive, supply concerns and limited demand growth space put pressure on oil prices. In the long term, OPEC's potential production increase and insufficient demand growth will lead to a downward trend in oil prices [9]. Gasoline and Diesel - Diesel cracking has rebounded, but the upside space is limited in the off - season. The retail price adjustment of gasoline has led to a decrease in the wholesale - retail price difference [140][141]. - The operating rate of major refineries is expected to continue to rise in August, while the operating rate of independent refineries in the East China region has declined, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries has increased [140]. - The export quota of refined oil has increased by 900,000 tons, and the export expectation still has room to rise [140]. - Typhoons have led to a short - term decline in gasoline demand, but the summer season still provides support. Diesel demand in East China has improved [140]. - Gasoline inventories are increasing, and diesel inventories of major refineries are also rising. The supply pressure of diesel will be the main factor affecting future trading [140]. Fuel Oil - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the near - term supply pressure remains, and the spreads continue to decline. Although demand has improved, supply is still abundant. The cracking spreads have rebounded, but the rebound in Singapore is relatively small [201]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the near - term supply is sufficient, and the spreads are also falling. However, the Danagote plant upgrade may lead to a supply shortage in the medium term, and the low - sulfur cracking spreads may rebound [201]. - The demand for marine fuel is expected to continue to improve, and the demand for power generation has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil. The feedstock demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in the US and China has increased [201]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Macro - European and US economic data are good, and tariff negotiations have advanced, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. Market expectations for the Fed to keep rates unchanged next week are high, but there are differences in expectations for a September rate cut [9][10][15]. Supply - OPEC supply is stable, and Russia's production increase may be slow. The US may relax sanctions on Venezuela. Non - OPEC supply shows different trends, with Mexico's exports decreasing and Brazil and Guyana's exports increasing [9][44]. - The EU's sanctions on Russian refined oil will affect the purchase of Russian oil by India and Turkey [50]. Demand - Global refinery maintenance will decrease next week, and the peak - season demand supports oil prices. The demand for light, medium, and heavy crude oil is increasing, and the demand for medium - quality oil has increased significantly [67][70]. - The improvement in international and domestic aviation coal demand is positive for oil demand [79][82]. Inventory - US refinery operations are at a high level, and gasoline and diesel inventories are at relatively low levels. ARA, Middle - East, Singapore, and Japanese inventories show different trends [9][108][114]. Freight - Crude - oil tanker freight rates are generally falling, while refined - oil tanker freight rates are slightly rising [117][120]. Position - The net long positions of Brent and WTI managed funds have significantly decreased, indicating a pessimistic market sentiment [123]. Gasoline and Diesel Price Structure - Diesel cracking has rebounded, but the upside is limited. The wholesale - retail price difference of gasoline and diesel has decreased [140][141]. Supply - The operating rate of major refineries is expected to rise in August, while the operating rate of independent refineries in East China has declined and that in Shandong has increased. The export quota of refined oil has increased [140]. Demand - Typhoons have affected short - term gasoline demand, but the summer season provides support. Diesel demand in East China has improved [140]. Inventory - Gasoline inventories are increasing, and diesel inventories of major refineries are rising [140]. Transaction - The crackdown on illegal diesel sales has improved the production - sales situation of independent refineries' truck - loaded diesel [194]. Fuel Oil Price Structure - High - sulfur spreads are falling, and cracking spreads have rebounded. Low - sulfur spreads are also falling, and there is a potential for a rebound in cracking spreads due to the Danagote plant upgrade [201]. Supply - High - sulfur supply is abundant in the near term, with high Russian and Iranian exports expected. Low - sulfur supply may be tight in the medium term due to the Danagote plant upgrade [201]. Demand - Marine - fuel demand is improving, and the demand for power generation and feedstock shows different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [201]. Inventory - Inventories in Singapore, Fujeirah, and the US are increasing, while those in ARA and Japan are slightly decreasing [201].