Report Information - Report Name: Goldtrust Futures Daily - Date: April 21, 2025 Core Viewpoints - The glass futures price is struggling to rise due to a relatively loose supply - demand pattern, high inventory pressure, and a lack of strong upward - driving factors [2][3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index and other large - cap stocks support the index, while small - and medium - cap stocks represented by the CSI 1000 oscillate in the 5550 - 5750 range in the short term [7] - Macroeconomic uncertainties have a significant positive impact on gold and other precious metals [11] - The iron ore price may be supported by short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill's复产 cycle but is constrained by long - term capacity expansion. Trade friction may have an indirect negative impact [15] - The glass futures market turns to a short - term oscillating and bearish outlook due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [19] - Domestic soybeans used for food processing are in a long - term oversupply situation and are difficult to maintain high prices for a long time [23] Industry Analysis Glass Futures - Supply - demand: The overall supply has an increasing expectation, while downstream demand growth is slow. The weekend sales in Shahe weakened, and the shipment in East China slowed down, resulting in a loose market pattern [3] - Inventory: As of the week of April 17, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 65.078 million heavy boxes, with a week - on - week decrease of 125,000 heavy boxes (0.19%), but still at a high level [3] - Driving factors: There are no significant positive factors such as large - scale policy stimulus or concentrated demand outbreaks [4] Stock Index Futures - Market performance: Large - cap stocks support the index, and small - and medium - cap stocks oscillate in the 5550 - 5750 range in the short term [7] Gold - Macroeconomic impact: High uncertainty and randomness in policies, deterioration of global trade, and increased recession expectations are beneficial to gold [11] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: Short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill's复产 cycle may support the price, but long - term capacity expansion is a constraint. Trade friction may indirectly reduce exports and steel demand [15] - Market sentiment: Risk - aversion may lead to capital outflows. Domestic policies may have a supporting effect [15] Glass - Market situation: The daily melting volume is low, spot sales have improved slightly, but factory inventories are high, and downstream demand depends on real - estate stimulus or major policies [19] - Technical analysis: The futures price dropped significantly, breaking the previous consolidation platform, with a short - term bearish outlook [19] Soybean (Domestic) - Supply - demand: Domestic soybeans are mainly for food processing, in a long - term oversupply situation, and lack competitiveness in oil - pressing compared with imported soybeans [23] - Price trend: After the recent strong rebound of soybean futures, the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans has widened rapidly, and it is difficult to maintain high prices for a long time [23]

1.65%定价合理吗？ 过去一周，10 年国债利率在 1.65%附近窄幅区间震荡，等待海内外形势进一步明朗。市场选择在这一位置等待是否合 理？考虑到贸易摩擦传导路径、各国可能的政策响应，以及最终对产业链的影响均存在高度不确定性，本文不直接量 化事件冲击本身，而是尝试通过横向比较不同大类资产对该事件冲击的价格反应，间接衡量债市反应强度是否合理。 视角一：事件冲击后，各大类资产价格对应的利率中枢是多少？ 分析方法：选择与利率高度相关的资产价格（包括螺纹钢、煤焦钢矿指数、非金属建材指数等反映国内需求的商品价 格指标；伦敦金、铜金比等代表全球需求与风险情绪的定价锚；以及沪深 300、房地产指数、恒生科技、MSCI 全球等 一系列海内外核心股指，用于刻画市场风险偏好、基本面预期、流动性等变化），针对这些资产价格构建与 10 年期国 债利率的回归模型，并推导出利率中枢的合理范围。 结论： 视角二：外部冲击后，全球 10 年期国债利率下行了多少？ 外部冲击显著升温以来，全球主要经济体 10 年期国债收益率多数下行，反映出较为一致的避险情绪。中国 10 年期国 债收益率下行 13.94bp，在全球样本中位于中等偏低位置。若剔 ...

证券代码：300979 证券简称：华利集团 中山华利实业集团股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-008 | 投资者关系 | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | --- | --- | | 活动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他 | | 参与单位名称 及人员姓名 | 详见附件一 | | 时间 | 2025年4月17日、2025年4月18日 | | 地点 | 线上：腾讯会议 线下：深圳 | | 上市公司 接待人员姓名 | 董事长张聪渊、副董事长兼执行长张志邦、董事会秘书方玲玲 | | | 参加公司组织的调研活动（线下）的来访人员按深交所规定签署了《承诺书》。 | | | 投资者与公司的交流情况： | | | Q：公司对美国的销售占比有多少？特朗普加征关税对公司的影响？ | | | A：关于销售收入：公司年报披露的销售收入是按客户总部所在地进行的划分，比如公司 | | | 来自 Nike 的收入全部统计在美国地区，来自 Puma 的收入全部统计在欧洲地区。美国是 | | | 全球最大的运动鞋消费市场，我们预估美国市场约占公司销售收入的 4成左右。公司的产 ...

宏观方面，中美关税政策博弈进入关键阶段，美国对华汽车零部件关税豁免延期决 议悬而未决，市场对贸易摩擦升级的担忧抑制风险偏好。国务院总理李强同日强调"以 更大力度扩大内需"，政策托底预期与外部冲击形成多空拉锯。 撰写品种：沪锌 撰写时间：2025/4/16 回顾周期：当日 研究员:曹柏泉 咨询证号(Z0019820) 库存方面，国内锌锭社会库存 8.89 万吨（截至 4 月 14 日），LME 库存 11.20 万吨 （截至 4 月 15 日），低库存支撑效应边际减弱。 沪锌日度报告 期货盘面，沪锌主力合约收盘价报 21,920 元/吨，单日跌幅 1.95%，成交额 225.10 亿元，成交量 20.33 万手，持仓量 12.66 万手，资金流出迹象明显。 总体来看，基本面变化不大，短期主要受关税政策影响，锌价或延续弱势震荡格局。 图1：沪锌期货加权价格走势 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料，我公司保证已经审慎审核 ...

宏观深度报告 20250419 贸易摩擦如何影响我国就业？政策如何应 对？ [Table_Summary] ◼ 贸易摩擦或对我国就业市场造成扰动 ◼ 出口就业人数的两种定量测算 ◼ 对等关税对就业影响的估算 2025 年 04 月 19 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中国科技产业为全球资产注入稳定 性》 2025-04-14 《美债抛售潮的原因：去美元化、流 动性冲击与中期财政扩张》 2025-04-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数。关税冲击主要是制造业出口，制造业 有更多的资本和技术投入作为劳动要素的代替，因此每百万元增加值吸 纳的就业只有 4.7 人。相比之下，建筑业和部分服务业吸纳就业的能力 更强。每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数较多的行 ...

导读： 本文欲探讨关税对测序设备、试剂、耗材及服务的影响，分析主要参与者的策略，窥探市场引发的连锁反应，跨国公司正积极寻求对策，本土制造商则有 机会筑建新的长城。 特别提示 微信公众号机制调整，请点击顶部"仪器信息网" → 右上方"…" → 设为 ★ 星标，否则很可能无法看到我们的推送。 导 读： 从研发角度，基于成本、技术以及国际合作方面分析，试图探索中美贸易摩擦持续升级下测序行业的机遇。 最近中美贸易摩擦持续升级，双方都对彼此的商品实施大幅度的关税增长，这些举措给我们测序行业带来了显著干扰和不确定，高额的关税阻 碍了设备、试剂以及耗材的进出口贸易，增加了研发和运营开销。 但往往不确定中就蕴含着机会，毕竟《孙子兵法·形篇》里面开篇就说"昔之 善战者，先为不可胜，以待敌之可胜"，意思是会打仗的人都先保证自己不败，然后等待敌人犯错。 当下大环境骤变，竞争格局即将重塑。本 文欲探讨关税对测序设备、试剂、耗材及服务的影响，分析主要参与者的策略，窥探市场引发的连锁反应，跨国公司正积极寻求对策，本土制 造商则有机会筑建新的长城。 放眼全球，测序是一个充满活力的市场，目前该行业主要由NGS驱动，这些技术使大规模基因组分析 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market shows mixed trends, with the real - estate chain being active and some sectors affected by policies and international news [2][3]. - The bond market is in a state of waiting for direction, with potential for a rebound after short - term adjustments [7]. - The precious metals market has seen a decline due to factors such as the European Central Bank's interest rate cut, but gold still has upward potential in the long - term [8][9]. - The shipping index market is in a state of shock, with suggestions to consider widening the spread between different contracts [12][13]. - The non - ferrous metals market presents different trends for each metal, with factors such as supply, demand, and tariffs influencing prices [20][22][23]. - The black metals market shows that steel production has peaked, and the iron ore market is in a state of shock [36][38][40]. - The agricultural products market has different situations for each product, such as the pressure on soybean meal prices and the shock of corn prices [53][55][60]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, A - share major indices mostly rose, with the real - estate chain being active. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and all had basis discounts. The market is affected by domestic and overseas news, and it is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields generally rose. It is expected that the bond market will have the potential to stabilize and rebound after short - term adjustments, and it is recommended to go long on dips and participate in basis and curve strategies [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell due to the European Central Bank's interest rate cut and reduced risk aversion. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and it is recommended to use high - throw and low - suck strategies in the short - term and sell out - of - the - money put options for profit protection [8][9]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index is in a state of shock. Spot supply and demand are still cold, and it is recommended to widen the spread between the August and June contracts and pay attention to the rebound opportunities of the June and August contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The price is affected by tariffs and fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 76000 - 77000 pressure level [14][20]. - **Zinc**: There is still an expectation of loose supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 20500 - 21500 support level [20][22]. - **Tin**: With a weak macro - environment and gradually recovering supply, it is recommended to hold short positions and take a short - selling approach on rebounds [23][26]. - **Nickel**: After the implementation of the Indonesian policy, the market is in a state of shock. The cost has certain support, and the main contract is expected to operate between 120000 - 126000 [26][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is still macro - uncertainty, and the market is in a state of weak shock, with the main contract expected to operate between 12600 - 13000 [29][31]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market has digested the tariff news, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract referring to 6.8 - 7.2 million [32][35]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production has peaked, and the demand in the second quarter is expected to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the domestic loose policy and the spread between steel and ore [36][38]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron water output remains high, and the port inventory is decreasing. The market is expected to fluctuate, and the impact of terminal demand and exports needs to be observed [39][40]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal [41][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is stable, but there is still a risk of decline. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal [43][46]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the cost is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [47][48]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the mainstream steel procurement pricing, and the inventory pressure still exists. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [50][52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, and the US soybean lacks the driving force to rise. The operation should be cautious [53][55]. - **Pigs**: The secondary fattening transaction has declined, and the consumption support is insufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14000 - 14800 [56][57]. - **Corn**: The market trading is light, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term and strong in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [58][60]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock - weak pattern [61]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [63].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term steel market fluctuates around tariff policies. Although the current steel demand data is good and the inventory reduction speed is accelerating, the direct and indirect exports of steel will be affected by tariff policies. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - The iron ore market is affected by the escalation of tariff friction, with the contradiction between high iron - water production and low finished - product demand continuing to accumulate. It is expected to rebound slightly or remain volatile in the near term, and the 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. - The coking coal price may maintain a weak and stable trend, and attention should be paid to the profit repair rhythm of downstream steel enterprises, the recovery strength of terminal demand, and changes in import coal customs clearance policies [3]. - The coke market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in iron - water production and the impact of the realization of terminal steel demand on the price rebound height [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Steel - **Price and Basis**: On Thursday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 05 contract was 138 (+11) [1]. - **Demand and Export**: The current steel apparent demand data is good, and the inventory reduction speed is accelerating. In 2024, China's steel exports to the US were 890,000 tons, accounting for only 0.8% of the total export volume. However, the indirect exports were about 140 million tons last year, with over 10 million tons exported to the US, and some re - exports were also affected [1]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price and Basis**: On Thursday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated narrowly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 762 yuan/wet ton (-2). The Platts 62% index was 99.9 US dollars/ton (+0.95), and the monthly average was 99.84 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 100 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.349 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 417,000 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 234.1815 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2198 million tons. The daily output of molten iron of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4012 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons. With the peak of building material demand and the slowdown of plate demand growth due to tariffs, iron ore is expected to enter a stage of increasing supply and falling demand [1]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to rebound slightly or remain volatile in the near term, and the 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. 3.3 Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main domestic production areas are restricted by safety inspections, and the overall capacity release rhythm is slow. The Mongolian port clearance volume fluctuates and declines, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious [3]. - **Demand**: The coke enterprise start - up rate has rebounded, but it mainly consumes the previous inventory. Steel mills maintain a rigid procurement rhythm, and the market trading atmosphere is cold [3]. - **Policy**: Macroeconomic policies continue to suppress the black - series industry chain, and the long - term export demand is expected to weaken [3]. 3.4 Coke - **Supply**: After the first price increase, the loss pressure of coke enterprises has been alleviated, and the production rhythm has become stable [4]. - **Demand**: The high molten - iron production of steel mills supports rigid demand, but some steel mills start to control the arrival rhythm due to the uncertainty of terminal demand [4]. - **Policy**: The long - term export expectation is weakened by the intensification of foreign trade frictions, which suppresses market confidence [4]. 3.5 Industry News - **Production Data**: In March, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.298 million, a year - on - year increase of 40.6%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 3.159 million, a year - on - year increase of 45.4%. The production of air conditioners in March was 33.712 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 74.458 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. The production of washing machines in March was 11.002 million, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 29.564 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% [6]. - **Housing Policy**: Qingdao plans to acquire more than 1,200 second - hand personal housing units for affordable rental housing and long - term rental housing [6]. - **Business Policy**: Shanghai encourages private enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions for industrial upgrading and supports private listed companies in market - value management [6]. - **Corporate Investment**: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. plans to invest 9 billion yuan to acquire a 35.42% stake in Magang Co., Ltd. and increase capital, with the shareholding ratio reaching 49% after the transaction [6]. - **Trade Negotiation**: China's Ministry of Commerce maintains communication with the US and is open to trade consultations [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US soybean market showed a strong upward trend due to multiple factors including natural correction, macro - economic improvement, and positive USDA reports. The supply is expected to tighten in the medium - to - long - term, and the demand remains strong, providing support for soybean prices. [3][9] - The domestic soybean meal market is in wide - range fluctuations, affected by future supply tightening and cost factors. However, deep declines are limited due to the expected tightening of international soybean supply and Brazilian price support. [3] - Rapeseed meal has more short - term market disturbances and weak demand, but in the long - run, supply is relatively tight, and the space for deep price drops is limited. [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - US soybean: The US soybean price is supported by strong fundamentals. The supply pressure is limited in the short - term, and the demand is strong in export, processing, etc. The Brazilian soybean market also shows good prospects in demand and processing. [3][9] - Domestic soybean meal: It fluctuates widely. Future supply tightening and cost factors lead to an obvious inventory build - up, but deep declines are limited due to international supply and Brazilian price support. [3] - Rapeseed meal: Short - term price pressure increases due to market disturbances and weak demand, but long - term supply is tight, and deep price drops are limited. [4] Strategies - Single - side trading: Buy at the low point of the far - month contract. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy far - month call options. [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Strong demand for international soybeans and strong price support - US soybean price trend: It showed a continuous upward trend this week, driven by factors such as post - decline correction, macro - economic improvement, and positive USDA reports. [9] - Demand side: The USDA slightly increased the US soybean processing forecast, mainly due to strong demand for US soybean meal. Although US soybean sales are weakening, shipments remain strong. Brazilian demand is also improving. [9] 2. Supply pressure persists and macro - disturbances increase - Supply side: The current inventory and sales pressure of US soybeans are limited. The pressure on Brazilian soybeans may also be relatively small in the medium - to - long - term. The new US soybean crop may face a tight supply situation. [12] - Weather: The weather in South America is generally normal, with limited impact on soybean production. [12] - Macro - factors: This week, the focus was on tariff issues. Exchange rates showed significant fluctuations, with the Brazilian real depreciating and the US dollar index falling. [12] 3. Spot supply tightens, and future supply may improve - Domestic soybean meal price trend: It showed obvious fluctuations this week, affected by trade frictions, supply concerns, and Brazilian import costs. [15] - Fundamental aspects: The spot market trading volume has increased significantly. The market is tightening, and the inventory has decreased. However, the future soybean arrival pressure and macro - factors limit the reflection of the strong spot market on the futures price. [15] 4. Increased import of miscellaneous meals, and rapeseed meal continues to be weak - Rapeseed meal price trend: It follows the soybean meal market but is weaker. The increase in domestic miscellaneous meal imports eases concerns about rapeseed meal supply shortages. [18] - Fundamental aspects: The spot market trading volume has improved slightly, but overall trading is still inactive. The inventory remains at a relatively high level. In the long - run, the decline space is limited. [18] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Changes International Market - US soybean: Includes data on weekly sales, export inspections, monthly processing volume, and weekly processing profit. [21] - Brazil: Data on monthly export volume and monthly processing volume are presented. [25] - Argentina: Data on export volume and monthly processing volume are provided. [28] - Foreign premiums: Data on FOB prices of the US Gulf, Brazil, Argentina, and CNF prices of rapeseed are shown. [30] Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - Exchange rates: The exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso are involved. [37][42] - Shipping: The shipping costs from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China have decreased, with the decline rates of - 10.87%, - 12.07%, and - 8.97% respectively. [41] Supply - Data on soybean and rapeseed imports, weekly processing volume are presented. [47] Demand - Data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal pick - up volume are provided. [51] Inventory - Data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventory are shown. [53]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of zero-day options on market volatility, particularly in the context of recent market turmoil driven by trade policy concerns [1][2][4] - The VIX index surged to its highest level since 2020, indicating extreme market volatility, while the trading volume of zero-day options related to the S&P 500 reached 8.5 million contracts in April, a 23% increase since the beginning of the year [1][2] - Analysts express mixed opinions on the role of zero-day options in driving volatility, with some attributing the recent spikes primarily to external factors such as Trump's tariff policies, while others suggest that the popularity of these options has exacerbated market fluctuations [3][4] Group 2 - The intraday volatility of the S&P 500 reached 44%, surpassing levels seen during the pandemic and approaching those during the 2008 financial crisis, with zero-day options playing a significant role in this volatility [2] - Concerns have been raised by investors, including Bill Ackman, regarding the potential risks posed by zero-day options in an already volatile trading environment, suggesting that these instruments may threaten market stability [2] - Research indicates that since the introduction of zero-day options in 2022, intraday volatility has increased by 24.5%, highlighting the potential influence of these short-term, speculative financial products on market dynamics [4]