Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and demand, with stable demand, loose spot supply, and a possible slight accumulation of inventory. The recommended operation is to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a situation of relatively stable supply and temporarily weak demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory and a decline in the proportion of molten aluminum. The option market sentiment is slightly bullish, and the recommended operation is to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The cast - aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of reduced supply and weakening demand during the off - season, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. The recommended operation is to go long on dips with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,535 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 70 yuan, up 25 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 6,671 hands to 228,028 hands. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,567.50 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, up 1,105 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.00, up 0.06 [2]. - **Alumina Contracts**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,147 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 1 yuan, unchanged. The main contract position of alumina decreased by 15,924 hands to 176,803 hands [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Contracts**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,075 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 20 yuan, down 20 yuan. The main contract position of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 23 hands to 7,889 hands [2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 20,520 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 15 yuan, down 60 yuan; the Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium was 10 yuan, up 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was - 3.59 US dollars/ton, down 3.54 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was 58 yuan, down 32 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 275 yuan, down 435 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production**: The alumina production in the current month was 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 15,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 160,494.61 tons, up 4,900.05 tons; the export volume was 79.39 tons, up 15.06 tons [2]. - **Alumina Trade**: The export volume of alumina in the current month was 23 million tons, up 6 million tons; the import volume was 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - **Aluminum Supply and Demand**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons. The import volume of primary aluminum was 248,198.71 tons; the export volume was 40,987.71 tons, up 21,416.99 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 54.70 million tons, up 55,884.22 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.78%, up 0.10 percentage points [2]. - **Aluminum Product Production**: The output of aluminum products was 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 54 million tons, up 5 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.49 million tons, down 0.09 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - **Aluminum - related Product Production**: The total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; the output of aluminum alloy was 153.60 million tons, down 13.30 million tons; the output of automobiles was 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate Index**: The national real estate prosperity index was 93.34, down 0.25 [2]. Option Situation - **Volatility and Ratio**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 5.61%, down 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.30%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 8.86%, down 0.0053 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.10, down 0.0489 [2]. Industry News - **Tax Revenue**: From January to July, the tax revenue of equipment manufacturing, modern service industries, etc. performed well. The tax revenue of equipment manufacturing industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, computer and communication equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment increased by 33%, 10.1%, and 8% respectively. The tax revenue of scientific research and technology service industries increased by 12.7%, and that of culture, sports and entertainment industries increased by 4.1% [2]. - **Consumption Policy**: The national consumer goods trade - in work promotion video conference was held in Beijing, emphasizing the need to optimize policies steadily and implement consumption - promotion incremental policies [2]. - **Sovereign Rating**: S&P confirmed the US "AA+/A - 1+" sovereign rating with a stable outlook [2]. - **Subsidy Policy**: Heilongjiang adjusted the consumer goods trade - in subsidy policy. From August 23, car replacement will be subsidized in three levels [2]. - **Budget Revenue and Expenditure**: In July, the national general public budget revenue was 202.73 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. From January to July, the cumulative increase turned positive for the first time. The national general public budget expenditure was 1,607.37 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [2]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology called on the photovoltaic industry to regulate competition order and promote healthy development [2]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US Department of Commerce included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate [2].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a decline, particularly in lithium carbonate, which hit the limit down, while short-selling investors profited significantly [1] - The importance of an excellent futures information and market analysis software is emphasized for investors to make informed decisions and strategies [1] Group 2 - Recommended futures information and market analysis software includes: - Sina Finance APP, which provides real-time data, technical analysis tools, and community features for investor insights [3] - Tonghuashun Futures, offering real-time data, trading, and analysis tools, suitable for both novice and experienced investors [4] - Wenhua Finance, known for its stable system and accurate data, providing advanced technical analysis tools and strategy development features [6] - Boyi Master, supporting real-time data for various markets and enabling comprehensive market monitoring [7] - Dongfang Caifu Futures, integrating community features with trading capabilities, providing a user-friendly interface [8] - Kuaiqi APP, offering a convenient and stable trading experience with 24/7 access [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish trend continues [1] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish trend continues [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease, supply surplus pressure rises, and oil prices trend downward. Buy put options [1][3][4] - LPG: Cost-side drags, upward momentum is insufficient. Take profit on long positions [1][7][8] - L: Market sentiment weakens, oscillates weakly. Wait for dips to go long [1][11][15] - PP: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, industry expectations are weak. Follow the cost to oscillate weakly and wait and see [1][18][22] - PVC: Market sentiment turns weak, inventory accumulates. Hold short positions [1][25][28] - PX: Supply-demand tight balance eases, oil prices oscillate weakly. Hold short positions at high levels and sell call options [1][31][33] - PTA: Supply-demand tight balance, oil prices oscillate weakly. Gradually take profit on short positions, buy put options, and look for opportunities to go long at lows [1][35][37] - MEG: Supply-demand is slightly loose, inventory is low. Hold short positions cautiously and look for low-buying opportunities [2][39][41] - Methanol: Negative factors may be exhausted. Take profit on 09 short positions, look for 01 low-buying opportunities, sell 10 put options, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [2][43][45] - Urea: Fundamentals are weak, but the fertilizer export window to India opens. Hold 01 long positions and sell put options [2][47][49] - Asphalt: Cost-side drags and demand declines. Lightly short [2][52][54] - Propylene: Cost support weakens, oscillates weakly. Wait and see in the short term [2][56][57] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined, WTI dropped 1.48%, Brent dropped 1.22%, and SC dropped 0.02% [3] - **Basic Logic**: After the US-Russia talks, geopolitical conflicts tend to ease. The support of the peak season for oil prices gradually decreases, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices gradually rises. Oil prices still have room to compress, and there is a probability of being pressed to around $60 in the medium and long term [4] - **Fundamentals**: From January to July this year, Azerbaijan's oil exports through the BTC pipeline decreased by 5.9% year-on-year. In July, India's crude oil imports dropped to the lowest level since September 2023. As of the week of August 8, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break-even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of [470 - 490] for SC [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 19, the PG main contract closed at 4314 yuan/ton, up 0.14% month-on-month [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: The cost-side oil price is weak, and the fundamentals are okay. The basis is at a high level, and the supply and demand have improved. The cost side is the main drag, and the upward momentum is weak [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. The ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, with a neutral valuation. The trend mainly follows the oil price. Take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of [4200 - 4300] for PG [9] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7307 yuan/ton, down 0.4% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 379 lots [11][12][13] - **Industry News**: In the short term, the cost support of PE weakens, the supply pressure eases, and the demand is expected to be strong. It is expected that the polyethylene price will run strongly, with an increase of 10 - 50 yuan/ton [14] - **Basic Logic**: Demand recovers slowly, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The parking ratio increases, the LL import profit margin decreases, and the production is expected to decline. The peak season for shed films is coming, and the demand support is strengthening. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Wait for dips to go long. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7400] for L [1][15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and wait for dips to go long [16] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 7016 yuan/ton, down 0.3% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 1180 lots [18][19][20] - **Industry News**: The downstream demand is weak, and the market is affected by bearish sentiment. However, the cost side still has support, and the macro - policy is favorable. It is expected that the market will oscillate bearishly around 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton in the short term [21] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, industry expectations are weak, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The upstream maintenance intensity declines, the export profit margin remains negative, and the demand starts slowly. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm in the peak season. Follow the cost to oscillate weakly and wait and see. Pay attention to the range of [6900 - 7100] for PP [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and go long on dips [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 5001 yuan/ton, down 1.0% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 134 lots [25][26][27] - **Industry News**: Some enterprises' devices are shut down, and India issued an anti - dumping tax on PVC imports. The domestic supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and the market will continue to run weakly. It is expected that the spot price of calcium carbide - type five in East China will be in the range of 4700 - 4850 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment turns weak, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. Social inventories have accumulated for 8 consecutive weeks. Multiple sets of devices are planned to be overhauled this week, and the weekly output is expected to decline. In August, new production capacity will be released, and the internal and external demand is in the off - season. The export is disturbed by policies, and the pressure of inventory accumulation in the industrial chain still exists. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory in August [29] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton [31][32] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing their loads. The demand side is weak but expected to improve. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the PX inventory is still high. The PXN is not low. The oil price oscillates weakly. Cautiously bearish [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions at high levels and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6680 - 6790] for PX511 [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PTA spot price in East China was 4659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [35][36] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, the supply - side device maintenance intensity increases, and the start - up load decreases. The demand side is stable, and the start - up load of downstream polyester and terminal weaving stops falling and rebounds. The supply - demand tight balance in August is expected to ease. The TA processing fee is low, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at lows [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profit on short positions, buy put options, and look for opportunities to go long on TA at lows. Pay attention to the range of [4700 - 4750] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [39][40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices are slightly increasing their loads, and the expected arrival volume increases, with the total supply increasing. The start - up load of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is expected to rebound. The supply and demand in August are slightly loose, and the oil price trend is downward. However, the ethylene glycol inventory is low, supporting the price. In the short term, it oscillates weakly, but the downward space may be limited [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of [4380 - 4430] for EG01 [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2355 yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton [43][44] - **Basic Logic**: The previously overhauled domestic devices have recovered, and the overseas methanol device load is at a high level, increasing the supply - side pressure. The demand is weak, and the social inventory is accumulating. The negative factors may be exhausted [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, look for 01 low - buying opportunities, sell 10 put options, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads. Pay attention to the range of [2385 - 2415] for MA01 [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: The urea device maintenance is low this week, and the start - up load is expected to rise, increasing the supply - side pressure. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the fertilizer export is good. The cost side has support. In the short term, the domestic urea fundamentals are still loose, but the price fluctuates within a range under the export quota system and the "peak - shaving and summer - ensuring" policy. The market speculates on the expectation of fertilizer/urea exports to India [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of [1790 - 1835] for UR01 [51] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 19, the BU main contract closed at 3453 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month [52][53] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase and trends weakly. The asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The asphalt profit is okay, and the cracking spread is at a high level. The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the long - term asphalt price is under pressure due to the typhoon in the south [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The cracking spread and the BU - FU spread are at high levels, with a high valuation. As OPEC gradually increases production, the raw material side is relatively sufficient. The asphalt is bearish in the medium and long term. Lightly short. Pay attention to the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [55] Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL01 closing price was 6404 yuan/ton, down 0.7% day - on - day. The warehouse receipts increased by 197 lots [56][57] - **Industry News**: The PDH device has restarted, and the regional circulation has increased, but the enterprise inventory is low. The downstream restocking is okay. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to increase after the restart of some PDH devices, but the demand is also expected to increase due to the recovery of some PP devices. The price may oscillate within a range [59] - **Basic Logic**: Both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The upstream supply is abundant, and the PDH cost support weakens. The downstream is gradually entering the seasonal peak season. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm. The short - term market sentiment is weak. Wait and see [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 20, 2025 [1] - Main topic: Pig market analysis, waiting for the end - of - month spot verification [1] Group 2: Analysts - Zhou Xiaoqiu, investment consulting qualification number: Z0001891, email: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com [2] - Wu Hao, investment consulting qualification number: Z0018592, email: wuhao8@gtht.com [2] Group 3: Pig Fundamental Data Spot prices - Henan spot price: 13,880 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton [3] - Sichuan spot price: 13,550 yuan/ton, year - on - year unchanged [3] - Guangdong spot price: 14,990 yuan/ton, year - on - year unchanged [3] Futures prices - Pig 2509: 13,780 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 140 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2511: 13,900 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 80 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2601: 14,200 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [3] Trading volume and open interest - Pig 2509: trading volume 3,384 lots, down 4,450 lots from the previous day; open interest 13,091 lots, down 1,000 lots from the previous day [3] - Pig 2511: trading volume 20,770 lots, down 14,938 lots from the previous day; open interest 67,934 lots, down 3,259 lots from the previous day [3] - Pig 2601: trading volume 7,300 lots, down 5,823 lots from the previous day; open interest 47,359 lots, down 424 lots from the previous day [3] Price spreads - Pig 2509 basis: 100 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2511 basis: - 20 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2601 basis: - 320 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 9 - 11 spread: - 120 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 11 - 1 spread: - 300 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - Trend intensity: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 5: Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increased, small - scale farmers had passive pressure on inventory, demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. Recent daily transactions were poor, and it was difficult to absorb market supply. Weekend spot performance was again below expectations, and there was a sentiment of panic selling [5] - The September contract was still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, which increased the industry's willingness to deliver, and the premium - narrowing market continued [5] - The sentiment of purchasing piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March. Attention should be paid to the risk of a downward shift in the far - end price center, and profit - taking and stop - loss should be noted [5] - The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level was 14,500 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but there are still some pressure points. The domestic soybean market has a significant inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. In the oil sector, palm oil may continue to increase production and inventory, while domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable. For corn, the external market shows a rebound trend. The pig price remains stable, and the peanut market is in a new - old alternation period. The egg market has supply pressure and general demand, and the apple market has low inventory and is in a off - season. The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][11][19][22][30][34][43][50][57]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.31% to 1053 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.03% to 292.5 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: As of August 17, the soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, unchanged from the previous week. The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending August 14 was 473,605 tons. Oil World indicated that the US soybean production decline reduced market safety. As of August 15, the oil mill's actual soybean crushing volume was 2.339 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.75%. Soybean inventory decreased by 4.24% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory increased by 1.12% week - on - week [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but the Brazilian and Argentine soybean markets have their own characteristics. The domestic soybean market has inventory accumulation pressure [4][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, a long - position thinking is recommended for soybean and rapeseed meal; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, buy call options [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price dropped 1.4% to 16.24 cents/pound, and London white sugar price dropped 0.96% to 476.9 dollars/ton [8]. - **Important Information**: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase. The US announced the sugar import tariff quota implementation rules for the 2025/26 fiscal year. Pakistan decided to import 85,000 tons of sugar [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is expected to increase. Domestically, the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend [11]. - **Position Suggestion**: For single - side trading, expect the Zhengzhou sugar price to be volatile in the short term, and consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [12][13][14]. Oil Sector - **External Market**: Not provided. - **Related Information**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month. As of August 17, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 68%. Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 864.4% in the week ending August 10. China's palm oil imports in July decreased by 46.8% year - on - year, while soybean oil imports increased by 263% year - on - year. As of August 15, palm oil and soybean oil commercial inventories increased [17][18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysia's palm oil is in the production season, and Indonesia's price provides support. Domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect a short - term correction in oil prices and consider long - positions after the correction; for arbitrage, consider a positive spread for P1 - 5 after the correction; for options, consider selling put options or buying call options after the correction [19][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rebounded, with the December contract rising 0.6% to 406.5 cents/bushel [22]. - **Important Information**: The US corn main - producing areas are expected to have lower - than - normal temperatures. The US corn good - excellent rate is 71%. Brazil's corn shipment volume in August 2025 was lower than last year. The North Port's corn purchase price was stable, and the North China corn market was strong [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Not provided. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider a long - position for the external December corn contract and short - selling at high prices for the January contract; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [26][27][28]. Pig - **Related Information**: Pig prices remained stable across regions. Piglet and sow prices changed slightly. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, and the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased by 0.7% [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Not provided. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, consider long - positions for far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct an LH91 reverse spread; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [31]. Peanut - **Important Information**: During the new - old peanut alternation period, the price of old peanuts decreased, and the price of new peanuts increased. Peanut oil prices were strong, and peanut meal sales were weak. As of August 14, peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The peanut market is in a new - old alternation period, the import volume has decreased, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - month peanut is expected to be strong in the short term but may face supply pressure due to the expected increase in planting area [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling the 10 - month peanut at high prices and currently take a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8600 option [35][36][37]. Egg - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas increased slightly, and then remained stable. In July, the national laying - hen inventory increased year - on - year. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 1% in the week ending August 14. The production and circulation inventories decreased. The egg - farming profit was - 0.26 yuan/jin, and the egg - hen farming expected profit decreased [39][41][42]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply pressure is obvious, the demand is general, and the cold - storage eggs' release impacts the price. For the September contract, although it is a peak - season contract, the spot price increase is less than expected [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [43][45]. Apple - **Important Information**: As of August 13, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease. In June 2025, the fresh apple import volume increased year - on - year, and the export volume decreased year - on - year. The apple price was stable, and the early - maturing apple price was high [47]. - **Trading Logic**: The current inventory is low, the market is in an off - season, the new - season apple production is expected to be similar to this season, and the early - maturing apple price decline impacts the market [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect the new - season apple price to be widely volatile; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE US cotton price rose 0.53% to 67.84 cents/pound [53]. - **Important Information**: As of August 16, 2025, the Indian cotton planting area decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. As of August 8, the ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production was expected to be 3.935 million tons, a slight decrease [54][56]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term tariff impact may weaken, and the supply is relatively tight. The demand is expected to improve in August. The short - term market has more positive factors [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect the US cotton price to be slightly stronger and the Zhengzhou cotton price to be slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [58][60].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The current rubber market lacks a clear directional guide, with both long and short factors intertwined. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The 01 contract price range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 150 yuan/ton to 14,900 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.02%. The whole latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 235 yuan/ton to - 920 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 20.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.34% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 1035 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.36%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 18.75% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 120,400 tons to 392,600 tons, with a growth rate of 44.23%. Indonesia's production decreased by 24,100 tons to 176,200 tons, with a decline rate of 12.03%. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.28 percentage points to 72.07%, while that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 percentage points to 63.09% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of August 15, the bonded area inventory decreased by 11,918 tons to 619,852 tons, with a decline rate of 1.89%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 4,234 tons to 46,469 tons, with a growth rate of 10.02% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Last week, the price of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, which will push up the cost of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider going long. The main contract has shifted to SI2511 [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) increased by 200 yuan/ton to 795 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 33.61% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 33.33%. The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 50.00% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In the month, the national industrial silicon production increased by 10,600 tons to 338,300 tons, with a growth rate of 3.23%. The production in Xinjiang decreased by 27,000 tons to 150,300 tons, with a decline rate of 15.21%. The production in Yunnan increased by 24,900 tons to 41,200 tons, with a growth rate of 153.86% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: As of the weekly data, Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 10 tons to 11,700 tons, with a growth rate of 0.09%. Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 80 tons to 3,140 tons, with a growth rate of 2.61% [3]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Last week, the polysilicon price fluctuated strongly, mainly driven by two factors: concerns about inventory accumulation and an increase in warehouse receipts, and expectations of policy benefits. In August, both supply and demand increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, and there was still pressure on inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton, and the upper limit expected to be between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider going long at low prices and buying put options to try shorting at high prices when volatility is low [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feed polysilicon remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) increased by 460 yuan/ton to - 5,280 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 8.01% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 460 yuan/ton to 52,280 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.87%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 50 yuan/ton to - 135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 27.03% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In the month, polysilicon production increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The import volume decreased by 200 tons to 800 tons, with a decline rate of 16.90%. The export volume increased by 800 tons to 2,100 tons, with a growth rate of 66.17% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 9,000 tons to 242,000 tons, with a growth rate of 3.86%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 690 tons to 19,800 tons, with a growth rate of 3.61% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - **Soda Ash**: The previous news caused fluctuations in the futures market, but it has no impact on the soda ash supply for now. The weekly production has increased significantly, and the inventory has returned to the accumulation pattern. The overall fundamentals are in obvious surplus. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices [5]. - **Glass**: The near - month 09 contract has been weak, and the spot trading has weakened significantly. The market negative feedback continues. The far - month 01 contract shows a volatile pattern. The glass demand side has certain pressure, and in the long run, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Track the implementation of regional policies and the inventory preparation of downstream enterprises [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: The North China glass price remained unchanged at 1,150 yuan/ton. The East China price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,190 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 2.46%. The 2505 contract price decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1,309 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.53% [5]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: The North China soda ash price remained unchanged at 1,350 yuan/ton. The 2505 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1,450 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.14% [5]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate increased by 2.24 percentage points to 87.32%. The weekly soda ash production increased by 17,000 tons to 761,300 tons, with a growth rate of 2.23% [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased by 157,900 tons to 6,342,600 tons, with a growth rate of 2.55%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 29,000 tons to 1,893,800 tons, with a growth rate of 1.54% [5]. Group 5: Log Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Last week, the log futures price declined weakly, mainly because the recent increase in the number of seller - registered warehouse receipts suppressed the market, and the willingness of buyers to take delivery needs further observation. The current spot market is relatively strong in the short term. The demand side remains firm, and the inventory has decreased significantly. It is recommended to go long at low prices, paying attention to the support level around 800 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The 2509 log contract price decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 811 yuan/ton. The price of 3.9A small - radiation pine at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 720 yuan/cubic meter. The new round of FOB price remained unchanged at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [6]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.182. The import theoretical cost decreased by 0.04 yuan to 818.62 yuan [6]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The port shipping volume decreased by 27,000 cubic meters to 1.733 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1.51%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6 to 47, with a decline rate of 11.32%. As of August 15, the national coniferous log inventory decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 3.06 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 0.65% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Partially take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish consolidation [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease, supply surplus pressure rises, and oil prices tend to decline, but the downside space is narrowing. Focus on the break - even point of new US shale oil wells around $60. [1][3][4] - LPG: Low valuation and improved demand lead to a short - term rebound. However, due to the weak oil price at the cost end, partial profit - taking on long positions is recommended. [1][7][9] - L: Cost support is weak, but with the approaching peak season for shed films, demand support strengthens. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm and consider buying on dips or holding long LP spreads. [1][12][16] - PP: Cost support weakens, and the market continues to be bearish. Follow the cost for short - term weak oscillations and consider buying on dips. [1][19][22] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices fall, cost support weakens, and inventory accumulates. Hold short positions. [1][25][29] - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and crude oil prices are oscillating weakly. Take profit on short positions and look for high - short opportunities or sell call options. [1][31][33] - PTA: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there are still macro - policy positives. Take profit on short positions step - by - step, buy put options, and look for opportunities to buy on dips. [1][35][37] - Ethylene glycol: Supply - demand is slightly loose, but inventory is at a low level. Look for high - short opportunities and sell call options. [2][39][41] - Methanol: Supply - demand is loose, and port inventory accumulates. Take profit on 09 short positions step - by - step, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 after the decline of 09 slows down. [2][43][45] - Urea: Fundamentals are weak, but winter fertilizer use and exports are relatively good. Take profit on 09 short positions and look for low - buying opportunities for 01. [2][47][49] - Asphalt: Oil prices have room to compress, raw material supply is sufficient, and supply increases while demand decreases. Try short positions with a light position. [2] - Propylene: The absolute price is low. Buy on dips as the downstream is entering the seasonal peak season. [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.16%, Brent rising 1.14%, and SC falling 0.76%. [3] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts tend to ease, the support of the peak season for oil prices declines, and OPEC+ production increases, putting pressure on oil prices. [4] - **Fundamentals**: Azerbaijan's oil exports decreased in January - July. Global oil demand is expected to grow, and US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week ending August 8. [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC. [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 18, the PG main contract closed at 3,849 yuan/ton, down 0.67% month - on - month. [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are weak, but the fundamentals are good, with high basis, improved supply - demand, and a short - term rebound. [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions due to the possible drag of weak oil prices at the cost end. Focus on the range of [3830 - 3930] for PG. [10] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,334 yuan/ton (down 17 day - on - day). [13][14] - **Industry News**: PE prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand. [15] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weak, but demand support strengthens with the approaching peak season. Consider buying on dips or holding long LP spreads. [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7,048 yuan/ton (down 36 day - on - day). [20][21] - **Industry News**: The market is expected to oscillate bearishly in the short term due to factors such as demand and supply. [21] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the market continues to be bearish. Follow the cost for short - term weak oscillations and consider buying on dips. [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5,054 yuan/ton (down 43 day - on - day). [26][27] - **Industry News**: The domestic PVC market continues to be weak due to factors such as supply, demand, and policies. [28] - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices fall, cost support weakens, and inventory accumulates. Hold short positions. [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern is conducive to inventory accumulation in August. [30] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PX spot price in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,688 yuan/ton. [31][32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and crude oil prices are oscillating weakly. Cautiously bearish. [33][34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and look for high - short opportunities or sell call options. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6810] for PX511. [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4,716 yuan/ton. [35][36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there are still macro - policy positives. Cautiously bullish. [37][38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions step - by - step, buy put options, and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the range of [4720 - 4770] for TA01. [38] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,369 yuan/ton. [39][40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is slightly loose, but inventory is at a low level. Cautiously bearish. [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for high - short opportunities and sell call options. Focus on the range of [4370 - 4410] for EG01. [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,355 yuan/ton, and the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2,412 yuan/ton. [44] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas methanol supply increases, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. Bearish. [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions step - by - step, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 after the decline of 09 slows down. Focus on the range of [2368 - 2397] for MA01. [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the urea main contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton. [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases, domestic demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. Cautiously bullish. [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 due to the possible autumn fertilizer peak and export speculation. Focus on the range of [1735 - 1760] for UR01. [51]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, the supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and the strategy is to go long at low levels; for soybean oil, the bullish factors have been fully traded, and it will fluctuate at a high level [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract during the day session was 9,534 yuan/ton, up 1.49%, and 9,620 yuan/ton at night, up 0.90%; the soybean oil main contract was 8,548 yuan/ton during the day, down 0.16%, and remained the same at night; the rapeseed oil main contract was 9,852 yuan/ton during the day, up 0.46%, and 9,886 yuan/ton at night, up 0.35%. The Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,523 ringgit/ton during the day, up 1.00%, and 4,566 ringgit/ton at night, up 0.15%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was 53.29 cents/pound during the day, up 0.11% [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the palm oil main contract was 232,837 lots, with an increase of 114,971 lots, and the open interest was 148,929 lots, a decrease of 23,676 lots; the soybean oil main contract had a trading volume of 146,569 lots, an increase of 84,495 lots, and an open interest of 191,498 lots, a decrease of 30,549 lots; the rapeseed oil main contract had a trading volume of 44,996 lots, a decrease of 21,431 lots, and an open interest of 46,810 lots, a decrease of 11,102 lots [3] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,570 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan; the first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,960 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,110 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [3] - **Basis**: The spot basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 36 yuan/ton; that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 262 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 108 yuan/ton [3] - **Price Spreads**: The futures price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil main contracts was 242 yuan/ton; that between soybean oil and palm oil main contracts was - 1,068 yuan/ton; the palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan/ton; the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 32 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 26 yuan/ton [3] 2. Macro and Industry News - According to the data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the output increased by 0.88% month - on - month [4] - SGS data showed that the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15 was 537,183 tons, a 34.5% increase compared to the same period last month [6] - The weekly crop growth report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday morning showed that as of the week ending August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, the same as the previous week and the same period last year. The flowering rate of soybeans was 95%, up from 91% the previous week, higher than 94% in the same period last year and equal to the five - year average. The pod - setting rate of soybeans was 82%, up from 71% the previous week, higher than 80% in the same period last year and equal to the five - year average [6] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with different levels of strength classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [7]

Report Overview - Date: August 19, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The origin has a prosperous supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2][6] - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish factors have been fully traded, and it will fluctuate at a high level [2][7] - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight US soybeans slightly declined, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2][12] - **Soybean One**: It will fluctuate [2][12] - **Corn**: It will run in a fluctuating manner [2][17] - **Sugar**: It will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][20] - **Cotton**: New drivers are needed for further price increases [2][25] - **Eggs**: The long - term outlook is weak [2][30] - **Pigs**: The spot market remains weak [2][32] - **Peanuts**: The near - term is strong, and the long - term is weak [2][38] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 9,534 yuan/ton with a 1.49% increase and a night - closing price of 9,620 yuan/ton with a 0.90% increase. Soybean oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 8,548 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% change and a night - closing price of 8,548 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions also had corresponding changes [7] - **News**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month, and the expected export volume increased by 34.5% month - on - month [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil is 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean One - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean one 2511 had a daily - closing price of 4044 yuan/ton with no change, and DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - closing price of 3155 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase. The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had different quotes [12] - **News**: On August 18, CBOT soybean futures mostly declined. As of August 17, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, the same as last week [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean one have a trend intensity of 0 [14] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The important spot prices such as the Northeast acquisition average price, Jinzhou closing price, etc. remained unchanged. The futures contracts C2509 and C2511 had different price changes and trading volume and position changes [15] - **News**: The northern corn collection port price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.24 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5990 yuan/ton, and the futures main price was 5672 yuan/ton [20] - **News**: Brazil's production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased. China's sugar import and production data in different periods were also provided [20][21][22] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [23] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 had a daily - closing price of 14,125 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. The spot prices of different cotton types in different regions had small increases [25] - **News**: The domestic cotton spot trading improved slightly, and the cotton yarn market trading also improved slightly. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season [26] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [27] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of eggs 2509 and eggs 2601 decreased. The spot prices of eggs in different regions had different changes [30] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [30] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong spot prices were 13780 yuan/ton, 13550 yuan/ton, and 14990 yuan/ton respectively. The futures prices of different contracts also decreased [34] - **Market Logic**: In August, the group's planned slaughter volume increased, demand growth was limited, and the market pressure was high. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract were given [36] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1 [35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The important spot prices of peanuts in different regions remained unchanged. The futures contracts PK510 and PK511 had small price decreases [38] - **Spot Market**: The new peanut trading in different regions had different situations, and the new peanuts were expected to be listed in late September [39] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lead market has no obvious contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment in China is unstable. The supply of zinc ore and ingots is increasing, while demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. However, the continuous decline of overseas LME zinc inventory provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range [1]. Summary by Relevant Information Lead Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: On August 19, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,675 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the futures main contract closing price was 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.45%; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) was 1,971 dollars/ton, down 0.50% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME lead inventory was 260,475 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 62,225 tons, up 0.71% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 30,595 lots, down 6.15%; the position was 49,496 lots, down 3.34% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Pre - maintenance smelters are gradually resuming production. For secondary lead, scrap lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and some smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion. Terminal demand has not improved significantly [1]. - **Industry News**: An East - China large secondary lead smelter plans to stop production for 1 month, expected to affect August secondary refined lead output. Dongying Xinsanyuan's 200,000 - ton lead - acid battery environmental utilization project has determined the winning bidder [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: On August 19, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the futures main contract closing price was 22,340 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) was 2,777 dollars/ton, down 0.70% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory was 75,850 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 32,538 tons, up 62.53% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 80,217 lots, down 3.61%; the position was 69,630 lots, down 8.80% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. In August, zinc concentrate processing fees are expected to continue rising. Downstream demand is mainly consuming existing inventories, but some terminal demand has increased due to concerns about zinc price increases [1]. - **Industry News**: Indian Zinc (HZL) plans to build a zinc tailings re - processing plant in Rajasthan and expand its metal (zinc + lead) production capacity [1].