| *业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月11日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | 122800 | 123900 | -1100 | -0.89% | 7C/HT | | 1#金川镇 | 123900 | 125000 | -1100 | -0.88% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2400 | 2400 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 121600 | 122700 | -1100 | -0.90% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镍升贴水 | 100 | 100 | 0 | - | 元/肥 | | LME 0-3 | -189 | -180 | -a | 4.96% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -3024 | -3476 | 452 | -13.00% | 元/吨 | | ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 11 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oil and Fat Industry - The overall trend of the oil and fat market is complex. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil have shown different degrees of changes. The basis of palm oil has increased significantly, and the import profit of palm oil has also improved. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, import costs, and cross - period spreads [1]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is supported by supply tightening and the wheat purchase policy, and the futures market is running strongly. In the long term, the supply is tight, imports and substitutes are decreasing, and the breeding consumption is increasing, which supports the upward movement of corn prices. However, the downstream deep - processing industry is in a continuous loss state, which restricts the replenishment enthusiasm [4]. Sugar Industry - The global sugar supply is tending to be loose, which puts pressure on raw sugar. The domestic sugar market follows the foreign market to weaken, but the high sales rate and low inventory in the domestic market support the price. Considering the future pressure of imported sugar arrival, the sugar price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern [7]. Meal Industry - The Sino - US economic and trade talks have increased the support for US soybeans, but the overall planting progress of new crops is relatively fast, and there is still uncertainty about whether the expected reduction in production can be realized. The domestic soybean arrival volume, inventory, and soybean meal inventory are increasing rapidly, and the basis is continuously weak. However, the increase in US soybeans and the rebound in Brazilian premiums support the domestic soybean meal trend. It is expected that the soybean meal will continue to be volatile and strong, but investors should be cautious about chasing up [9]. Pig Industry - The spot price of live pigs maintains a volatile structure. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the demand is still weak due to the hot weather. Although there is still a certain profit in the breeding industry, the market capacity expansion is cautious, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile structure [11]. Cotton Industry - The downstream of the cotton industry is weak, with the finished product inventory gradually rising and the start - up rate stable but decreasing. The cotton spot is better than the downstream, and there are still concerns about the tight inventory in the near - term spot period. However, the new cotton supply is expected to be good, and the output is expected to increase steadily. The Zhengzhou cotton futures still face some pressure, and the domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [13]. Egg Industry - In June, the inventory of laying hens will reach the highest level in the past five years, increasing the egg supply pressure. The super - strong plum rain season this year further weakens the off - season demand. The contradiction between supply and demand in the egg market is expected to reach a peak in the past five years, and the egg price is expected to have weak rebound or continue to decline [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8140 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 2 yuan to 7434 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 2 yuan to 706 yuan/ton [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong remained at 8600 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2509 decreased by 38 yuan to 7998 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 38 yuan to 602 yuan/ton, the import cost decreased by 73.7 yuan to 8568.4 yuan/ton, and the import profit increased by 36 yuan to - 570 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 30 yuan to 9400 yuan/ton, the futures price of O1509 decreased by 8 yuan to 8932 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 38 yuan to 468 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil cross - period spread (09 - 01) decreased by 6 yuan to 60 yuan, the palm oil cross - period spread (09 - 01) decreased by 18 yuan to 36 yuan, and the rapeseed oil cross - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 1 yuan to 142 yuan [1]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2507 increased by 22 yuan to 2379 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 8 yuan to 1, the 7 - 9 spread increased by 3 yuan to - 25 yuan, the import profit increased by 22 yuan to 524 yuan, and the position increased by 14834 lots to 1901515 lots [4]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2507 increased by 24 yuan to 2711 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 6 yuan to 9, the 7 - 9 spread increased by 7 yuan to - 64 yuan, and the spread between starch and corn increased by 2 yuan to 332 yuan [4]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 decreased by 10 yuan to 5580 yuan/ton, the futures price of sugar 2509 decreased by 17 yuan to 5734 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 9 spread increased by 7 yuan to - 137 yuan [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, the basis in Nanning increased by 17 yuan to 363 yuan, and the basis in Kunming increased by 17 yuan to 183 yuan [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production in the country increased by 11.63% to 1110.72 million tons, the cumulative sales volume increased by 26.07% to 574.65 million tons, and the industrial inventory decreased by 8.20% to 420.74 million tons [7]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan to 2880 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2509 increased by 12 yuan to 3031 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 32 yuan to - 151 yuan, and the cross - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 4 yuan to - 37 yuan [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2530 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2509 increased by 15 yuan to 2629 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 15 yuan to - 99 yuan, and the cross - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 10 yuan to 273 yuan [9]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of domestic soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged at 3960 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean contract increased by 61 yuan to 4199 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 61 yuan to - 239 yuan; the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3640 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean contract increased by 10 yuan to 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 10 yuan to 0 [9]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of the main live pig contract increased by 50 yuan to 455 yuan/ton, the futures price of live pig 2507 increased by 155 yuan to 13225 yuan/ton, the futures price of live pig 2509 increased by 120 yuan to 13595 yuan/ton, and the 7 - 9 spread decreased by 35 yuan to 370 yuan [11]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan increased to varying degrees, the daily slaughter volume decreased by 1388 heads to 141441 heads, the self - breeding profit decreased by 1.8 yuan to 34 yuan/head, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 36.4 yuan to - 121 yuan/head [11]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2509 increased by 25 yuan to 13520 yuan/ton, the futures price of cotton 2601 increased by 5 yuan to 13490 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 20 yuan to 30 yuan, and the position increased by 96 lots to 538557 lots [13]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B increased by 159 yuan to 14644 yuan/ton, the CC Index 3128B increased by 123 yuan to 14743 yuan/ton, and the basis between 3128B and the 01 contract increased by 134 yuan to 1124 yuan [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 31.86 million tons to 383.40 million tons, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.52 million tons to 92.90 million tons, and the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 9.86 million tons to 53.46 million tons [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of egg 09 contract decreased by 19 yuan to 3655 yuan/500KG, the futures price of egg 07 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 2837 yuan/500KG, and the 9 - 7 spread decreased by 15 yuan to 837 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price decreased by 0.01 yuan to 2.77 yuan/jin, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.06 to 2.33, and the breeding profit decreased by 3.59 yuan to - 27.88 yuan/feather [14].

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply-demand pattern in the feed and aquaculture industry is complex, with different products facing various short - term, medium - term, and long - term supply and demand situations, resulting in different price trends and investment strategies [1][2][4][8][9]. Summary by Product 1. Pig - **Price Situation**: On June 11, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 13.9 - 14.2 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14.4 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14 yuan/kg, and 15 - 15.4 yuan/kg respectively, with prices in Liaoning rising and those in other regions remaining stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. There is still significant pressure on pig slaughter in June, and the seasonal demand off - season is emerging. In the long term, the supply from June to September is expected to increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures market is in a state of discount. In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. It is advisable to short at the resistance level after a rebound [1]. 2. Egg - **Price Situation**: On June 11, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were 2.5 yuan/jin and 2.78 yuan/jin respectively, both showing a decline [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the supply is still relatively sufficient. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase in the future. In the long term, the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily observe the 07 contract. For the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and short at high levels after a rebound. Look for long opportunities for the 10 contract at low levels [2]. 3. Oil - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the US soybean oil main contract rose, the Malaysian palm oil main contract fell, and domestic palm oil and soybean oil prices mostly declined while rapeseed oil prices rose [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all mixed. Palm oil has limited upside potential due to seasonal production increases. Soybean oil is under supply pressure but has some support. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply pressure but may see inventory reduction in the long term [5][6][7]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil will fluctuate in the short term. Consider the oil - meal ratio shrinking strategy [8]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the US soybean 07 contract rose, and the domestic soybean meal futures price also increased [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the US soybean price is strong due to weather factors, while the domestic supply is increasing. In the long term, the cost increase and weather factors will drive the price to rise steadily [8]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and hold existing long positions [8]. 5. Corn - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port rose, and the price in Shandong Weifang remained stable [9]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and the price has support. In the long term, the supply - demand situation tightens, but the price increase is limited by substitutes [9]. - **Strategy**: Take a bullish view overall. For the 07 contract, go long at the lower end of the range. Consider the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. from the previous trading day [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.07%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and steel prices remain under pressure. However, the low inventory level limits the real - world contradictions. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The main contract price fluctuated with a daily decline of 0%, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil have weakened, inventory has started to increase, and prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the easing of Sino - US trade risks. It is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.85%, showing an increase in both volume and open interest. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of iron ore have weakened, and ore prices are under pressure. The relative positive factor is the large discount of the futures price, which provides resistance to the downward movement. It is expected that the ore price will oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate Debt Restructuring**: Leading real - estate developers are in the process of debt reduction. Sunac has obtained support from 74% of its overseas creditors for its debt restructuring, and Country Garden has reached a 70% consensus with its creditors on high - interest debts. The debt restructuring progress of troubled real - estate enterprises is accelerating [6]. - **Excavator Sales**: From January to May 2025, the domestic sales of excavators were 57,501 units, a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. In May 2025, 18,202 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. Domestic sales were 8,392 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.48%, and exports were 9,810 units, a year - on - year increase of 5.42% [7]. - **Industry Initiative**: The China Iron and Steel Association called on the steel and automobile industries to resist "involution - style" competition, strengthen self - discipline, and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industrial chain through technological innovation [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) decreased by 5 yuan, and the national average price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) decreased by 1 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet (Q235) was 2,900 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,080 yuan. The volume - to - rebar price difference was 120 yuan, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference was 1,000 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 718 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 728 yuan, unchanged. The Australian sea freight was 10.22 yuan, a decrease of 0.17 yuan; the Brazilian sea freight was 24.21 yuan, an increase of 0.07 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 95.56 yuan, a decrease of 0.70 yuan; the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 95.20 yuan, a decrease of 0.90 yuan [9]. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract was 2,974 yuan, a decrease of 0.07%. The trading volume was 1,456,363 lots, an increase of 23,001 lots, and the open interest was 2,165,234 lots, a decrease of 31,488 lots [13]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,089 yuan, unchanged. The trading volume was 507,470 lots, a decrease of 4,710 lots, and the open interest was 1,592,616 lots, an increase of 7,398 lots [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 698.5 yuan, a decrease of 0.85%. The trading volume was 353,841 lots, an increase of 49,661 lots, and the open interest was 721,095 lots, an increase of 1,354 lots [13]. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including inventory data from different years [15][16][18]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including seasonal inventory and inventory changes [20][21][26]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate and profitability of independent electric furnaces [29][30][32]. 后市研判 - **Rebar**: The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The weekly output decreased by 70,500 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 196,500 tons. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are under pressure. Due to the low inventory, the real - world contradictions are limited. It is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened. The weekly output increased by 92,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 60,100 tons. The fundamentals have weakened, inventory has increased, and prices are under pressure. With the easing of Sino - US trade risks, it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. The terminal consumption of ore is weakly stable, but the demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. The supply pressure is large, and the price is under pressure. Due to the large discount of the futures price, the downward movement has resistance. It is expected to oscillate weakly [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On June 10, for the coking coal 2509 contract, it closed at 786.5, up 0.70%. The supply shows marginal improvement signs, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 10, for the coke 2509 contract, it closed at 1349.0, up 0.48%. The raw - material supply has marginal improvement, and iron - water production has fallen from a high level. It should also be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - JM main - contract closing price was 785.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; J main - contract closing price was 1349.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures - contract holdings were 696,552.00 lots, up 14,601.00 lots; J futures - contract holdings were 58,010.00 lots, up 305.00 lots [2]. - Coking coal's top 20 contract net - holdings were - 11,422.00 lots, up 23,135.00 lots; coke's top 20 contract net - holdings were 1,245.00 lots, up 465.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 6.50 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread was 15.50 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 100.00 pieces, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts were 80.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 708.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1445.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 116.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal was 1140.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal was 1000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price was 1000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - JM main - contract basis was 215.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; J main - contract basis was 96.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - 110 coal - washing plants' raw - coal inventory was 327.41 million tons, up 16.43 million tons; 110 coal - washing plants' clean - coal inventory was 245.06 million tons, up 22.99 million tons [2]. - 110 coal - washing plants' operating rate was 60.59%, down 0.96 percentage points; raw - coal production was 38,930.60 million tons, down 5,127.60 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports were 3,604.00 million tons, down 179.00 million tons; 523 coking coal mines' daily average raw - coal output was 189.90 million tons, down 1.90 million tons [2]. - 16 ports' imported coking coal inventory was 545.73 million tons, down 8.03 million tons; 18 ports' coke inventory was 266.85 million tons, down 4.93 million tons [2]. - Independent coking enterprises' full - sample coking coal total inventory was 818.92 million tons, down 27.41 million tons; independent coking enterprises' full - sample coke inventory was 127.01 million tons, up 15.63 million tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory was 770.91 million tons, down 15.88 million tons; 247 steel mills' coke inventory was 645.80 million tons, down 9.13 million tons [2]. - Independent coking enterprises' full - sample coking coal available days were 12.26 days, down 0.24 days; 247 steel mills' coke available days were 11.58 days, down 0.13 days [2]. National Industry Situation - Coking coal imports were 889.34 million tons, up 25.97 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports were 55.00 million tons, down 21.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal production was 3,926.16 million tons, down 235.31 million tons; independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 75.36%, down 0.30 percentage points [2]. - Independent coking plants' per - ton coke profit was - 19.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton; coke production was 4,160.00 million tons, up 30.60 million tons [2]. National Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast - furnace operating rate was 83.54%, down 0.35 percentage points; 247 steel mills' blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.63%, down 0.04 percentage points [2]. - Crude - steel production was 8,601.90 million tons, down 682.24 million tons [2]. Industry News - My Steel Network: In June, terminal demand is expected to weaken, and building - material consumption is expected to decline by about 3% month - on - month [2]. - Morgan Stanley: International investors' willingness to increase holdings of Chinese stocks, confidence in the "new consumption" and technology sectors have increased [2]. - China Index Academy: Current land - acquisition enterprises are still mainly state - owned enterprises. Real - estate enterprises' sales are still in a downward channel, and private real - estate enterprises' confidence needs sales recovery [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - Short - term market sentiment eases, and the futures market stabilizes temporarily. However, there is a lack of actual positive news, and the short - term fundamentals still face pressure. The raw material ore end is gradually loosening, and the support at the bottom is weakening. It is expected that the short - term futures market will run in a weak range, with the main contract operating between 560,000 - 620,000 yuan. [1] Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is stable, the cost support of refined nickel has slightly weakened, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upward space. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan. [4] Stainless Steel - The futures market returns to the fundamental trading logic. The ore end provides some support for prices, and the raw material nickel - iron price is weakly stable. The stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan. [7] Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the ore - end growth rate is lower than expected and the downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern. Otherwise, the zinc price may decline. It is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,000 - 23,000 yuan. [10] Alumina - In the short - term, the alumina fundamentals may turn to a relatively loose pattern, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the lower reference cash cost at around 2,700 yuan. [13] Aluminum - In the short - term, the low inventory and low warehouse receipts support the aluminum price, and the short - term rebound of coal - related prices also supports the cost. However, the increase in aluminum market tariffs and the pre - emptive exports have overdrawn some future demand. It is expected that the domestic aluminum price will face pressure in the future, with the lower reference at around 19,000 yuan. [13] Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", there is no clear trend for the copper price. The strong fundamentals limit the downward space, and the weak macro - expectations limit the upward space. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan. [14] Tin - In the short - term, the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the slow supply - side recovery and the rebound driven by macro - sentiment. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, it is recommended to short after the sentiment stabilizes. [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,250 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 58,600 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 61,700 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 55,700 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. [1] Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month. Battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 51,573 tons, up 2.33%. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,507 tons, down 12.41%. Lithium carbonate demand was 93,938 tons, up 4.81%. In April, lithium carbonate imports were 28,336 tons, up 56.33%, and exports were 734 tons, up 233.72%. [1] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price is 123,900 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,400 yuan/ton, down 2.04%. 1 imported nickel average price is 122,700 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. [4] Fundamental Data - In May, China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. In April, refined nickel imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18%. SHFE inventory was 27,075 tons, up 0.45% week - on - week. Social inventory was 41,553 tons, down 1.97%. [4] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. [7] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 36.00 million tons, unchanged. Stainless - steel imports were 14.21 million tons, up 10.26%, and exports were 44.78 million tons, down 4.85%. [7] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,590 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The premium is 300 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. [10] Fundamental Data - In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. In April, refined zinc imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%, and exports were 0.25 million tons, up 75.76%. [10] Alumina Price and Basis - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Henan) average price is 3,302 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,280 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. [13] Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,210 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. SMM A00 aluminum premium is 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic aluminum imports were 2.8 million tons, and exports were 1.37 million tons. [13] Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 78,875 yuan/ton, unchanged. SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 85 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic copper imports were 25.00 million tons, down 19.06%. [14] Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin average price is 263,900 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. SMM 1 tin premium is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 4.35%. [16] Fundamental Data - In April, tin ore imports were 9,861 tons, up 18.48%. In May, SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37%. [16]

自糖产业期现日报 反期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月10日 刘珂 Z0016336 | 指标 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 白糖2601 | રકેતી ર | રકેવા | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 白糖2509 | 5734 | 5735 | -1 | -0.02% | | | ICE原糖主力 | 16.70 | 16.51 | 0.19 | 1.15% | 美分/磅 | | 白糖1-9价差 | -144 | -145 | 1 | 0.69% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约持仓量 | 341231 | 342408 | -1177 | -0.34% | 글 | | 仓单数量 | 29443 | 29443 | O | 0.00% | ड़ॉर्स | | 有效预报 | 0 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | | | 现货市场价格 | | | | | | | 指标 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 南宁 | 6080 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price center continued to move up on Monday, but the increase in OPEC production and the slowdown in China's import growth may put pressure on high oil prices, and the sustainability of the rebound should be monitored [1] - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market structure is relatively stable, but the spread and spot premium have declined. The absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to oscillate strongly, and long spreads can be considered [2] - The supply of asphalt in North China is low, and there is an expectation of supply reduction in Shandong, which provides bottom support. However, rainfall in the South restricts demand, and the upward space is limited [2] - The fundamentals of TA are weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure. The EG price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to port shipments and polyester production cuts [3] - Short - term weather disrupts rubber production, and downstream tire demand declines slightly, so the rubber rebound space is limited [4] - The MTO device operation rate remains high, but the port and inland inventories are rising, and the methanol price is expected to oscillate [6] - The short - term fundamentals of polyolefins have few contradictions, but high inventory and supply put pressure on valuation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - The PVC downstream is entering the off - season, and the fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 7 - month contract closed up $0.71 to $65.29/barrel, Brent 8 - month contract closed up $0.57 to $67.04/barrel, and SC2507 closed up 5.5 yuan to 479.3 yuan/barrel. OPEC production increased, China's imports decreased in May, and the overall macro - atmosphere is optimistic, but the refinery profit may be under pressure [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of FU2507 and LU2507 fell on Monday. The low - sulfur market structure strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market was relatively stable. The short - term cost rebound may lead to an oscillating - upward trend of absolute prices [2] - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2507 rose on Monday. The supply in North China is low, and there is a supply reduction expectation in Shandong. However, rainfall in the South restricts demand, and the upward space is limited [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 and EG2509 closed down, and PX also fell. The production and operation of some devices changed, and the overall fundamentals of TA are weak, while EG is expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: The main contracts of RU2509 and NR rose, and BR fell. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, and Myanmar has an export target. Short - term weather and demand factors limit the rebound space [4] - **Methanol**: The spot and international prices are given. The MTO device operation rate is high, but inventory is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are presented. The short - term fundamentals have few contradictions, but high inventory and supply put pressure on valuation [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The prices in different regions are stable or adjusted. The real - estate construction is stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Provides the basis data (including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, etc.) of various energy - chemical products on June 10, 2025, and also gives the basis change and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, aiming to implement the strategic communication between the two heads of state and promote the healthy development of bilateral economic and trade relations [10] - In May, OPEC's crude oil production increase was lower than the target, with some countries under - producing [10] - In May 2025, China imported 46.6 million tons of crude oil, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 229.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15][17][20][22][24][25][27] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [28][33][34][37][40][42] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Shows the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Displays the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][61][63][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Presents the cash - flow and profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][69][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director and director of energy - chemical research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [73] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has in - depth industry research experience and has won multiple awards [74] - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [75] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and has passed the CFA Level III exam [76]