2026 年 2 月 4 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，关注中东地缘谈判及 船司复航进度 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2602 | 1,737.8 | 1.15% | 612 | 1,883 | -456 | 0.33 | 0.13 | | | EC2604 | 1,237.9 | 5.22% | 29,296 | 34,229 | 423 | 0.86 | 0.97 | | | EC2606 | 1,533.7 | 2.57% | 3,147 | 13,458 | 860 | 0.23 | 0.47 | | | | 本 期 | | 2026/2/2 | | 单 位 | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 1,792.14 | | | 点 | -3.6% | | | 运 价 | 美西航线 SCFIS： | | 1,101.40 | ...

■亚期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年2月4日 Z0003135 张晓珍 | 甲醇价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月3日 | 2月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2247 | 2252 | -5 | -0.22% | | | MA2609 收盘价 | 2279 | 2278 | 1 | 0.04% | | | MA59价差 | -32 | -26 | -6 | 23.08% | | | 太仓基差 | -42 | -50 | 8 | -16.00% | | | MTO05盘面 | -107 | -120 | 13 | -10.83% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1780 | 1780 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2000 | 2008 | -8 | -0.37% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2200 | 2210 | -10 | -0.45% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 420 | 43 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation continues to disrupt oil prices, with the geopolitical premium of crude oil fluctuating due to factors related to Russia and Iran. The market should focus on the progress of US - Iran negotiations and India's purchase of Russian oil [2][8]. - Most energy - chemical products have phased support at the expectation level. For example, the cost of asphalt is expected to increase during the reconstruction of heavy - quality raw materials, and pure benzene and styrene are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction during the spring maintenance period [3]. - The overall outlook for the energy - chemical sector is to treat it with a volatile mindset, with the movement of US - Iran relations supporting crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm. The API crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 11.08 million barrels in the week ending January 30. Geopolitical tensions, such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone and the approach of Iranian armed vessels to a US - flagged oil tanker, have led to an increase in geopolitical concerns. The US reducing tariffs on India in exchange for India stopping the purchase of Russian oil poses a threat to Russian oil supply in the later period. The outlook is volatile [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price shows a weak - volatile trend. The asphalt futures price is affected by the weakening of crude oil and the expected increase in the supply of distal raw materials due to the partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela. The supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. The current asphalt futures price is over - valued compared with other products. The outlook is volatile, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: As the US - Iran negotiations progress, the fuel oil futures price shows a weak - volatile trend. Geopolitical cooling expectations have driven down the fuel oil futures price. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply from Venezuela will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The situation in Iran also has an impact on fuel oil exports and power - generation demand. The outlook is volatile, and the long - term growth of Venezuelan oil production will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weak - volatile trend of crude oil. It is affected by natural gas price fluctuations, and although it faces some negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by other fuels, its current valuation is low. The outlook is volatile, and it will follow the movement of crude oil [12]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: The price stops falling and stabilizes, and the negotiation atmosphere warms up. PX will have a short - term volatile adjustment. After the sharp decline in international oil prices, the impact of the cost side weakens. The fundamentals of PX have limited changes, and factors such as short - covering and the approach of the maintenance season support PX. The outlook is that the short - term price will fluctuate under the guidance of sentiment [14]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The price fluctuates at a low level, and attention should be paid to the commodity sentiment. After the sharp decline in upstream costs, the decline has slowed down. PTA mainly follows the movement of upstream costs. The spot basis has slightly recovered, and the polyester production reduction has increased, leading to an expected inventory accumulation in the near - term. The outlook is that it will maintain a volatile adjustment in the short term [14]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Although the current situation is weak, there is still an expectation of improvement, and it shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. Recent market changes include a sharp decline in international oil prices, some replenishment demand from downstream before the Spring Festival, and the widening price difference between styrene and pure benzene. The high - inventory situation may limit the increase, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the spring maintenance period [14][16]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Seasonal inventory accumulation may start, but the profit is not easy to compress. The price of styrene shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. The price is affected by the stabilization of crude oil prices and the expected weakening of supply - demand. However, due to export support, the height of seasonal inventory accumulation is expected to be reduced, and the profit compression is limited. The outlook is that it will be volatile and upward - biased, with inventory reduction expected to resume in March [18]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The near - term arrival volume is relatively large, and the price is under pressure. Due to the large near - term arrival volume, inventory has been accumulating. Although there is an expectation of a decrease in arrival volume from mid - February, and the polyester demand support is insufficient, the price is expected to remain weak in the short term. The outlook is that the price will maintain a range - bound adjustment [20][21]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Downstream factories are on holiday and shut down, and the demand is weak. The short - fiber price follows the movement of upstream polyester raw materials. As the market approaches the Spring Festival, downstream demand is weak, and the short - fiber price maintains a weak - volatile trend. The outlook is that the price will follow the upstream, and the support for processing fees will increase [24][25]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: It follows the cost fluctuations. Upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate, and polyester bottle chips follow the upstream adjustment. The trading atmosphere has declined slightly, and the market is in a situation of having prices but no transactions. The outlook is that the absolute price will follow the raw materials, and the support for processing fees will increase [26]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: Overseas disturbances have eased, and some Iranian devices have restarted. Methanol is stable with a downward - biased trend. The spot price in Taicang has increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The easing of the US - Iran situation and the restart of Iranian devices have increased the expected import volume, putting downward pressure on the futures price. The outlook is that it will be volatile, and although the Iranian situation has eased, there is still uncertainty [28]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: New orders are difficult to follow up, and urea shows a volatile adjustment. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment is not active, and the price is in a stalemate. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream purchasing performance and production enterprise order digestion [29]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **View**: The upstream production has increased slightly, and the price has fallen back and then fluctuated. The decline in oil prices, the weakening of the overall commodity sentiment, the limited follow - up of spot prices after the profit repair of various production methods, and the weak demand in the off - season have led to the decline of the plastic price. However, there is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [32]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: Some refinery maintenance has resumed, and PP has fallen back and then fluctuated. Similar to LLDPE, factors such as the decline in oil prices, the weakening of the commodity market sentiment, the profit repair of various production methods, and the weak demand in the off - season have led to the decline of the PP price. There is also an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [33]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: It follows the commodity sentiment and fluctuates. The PDH maintenance still provides some support. The supply increase is limited, and the downstream rigid demand has recovered. The short - term powder profit fluctuates slightly, and the demand support in the off - season is limited. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [34]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: There are strong expectations but low valuations, and the pre - holiday rebound should be cautious. Geopolitical disturbances may affect the commodity market sentiment. The "rush for exports" of PVC supports the demand, and inventory has been reduced. However, the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the price may rise first and then fall, showing an overall volatile trend [35]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The upstream losses have increased, and it is advisable to wait and see. Geopolitical disturbances may affect the market sentiment. The decline in the price of liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the losses of chlor - alkali enterprises. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream will reduce production to relieve the oversupply. The outlook is that it will be volatile, and the upstream production reduction risk has increased [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific and complete content for each variety is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, 20 - commodity index, and industrial product index on February 3, 2026, are 2374.28 (- 1.93%), 2707.14 (- 2.40%), and 2290.30 (- 0.97%) respectively [284]. - **Energy Index**: On February 3, 2026, the energy index was 1116.03, with a daily decline of 3.91%, a 5 - day decline of 4.36%, a 1 - month increase of 2.68%, and a year - to - date increase of 2.71% [286].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 3, 2026, equity index futures rose, CGB futures were mixed, and most commodities declined with non - ferrous metals leading the rises [10][12][13] - Short - term copper prices are volatile due to macro disturbances but have a favorable medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook [16][21][22] - Tin prices have strong downside support in the medium - to - long - term but face short - term volatility risks [26][28][30] - Crude oil prices dropped, and the market is in supply - surplus, with the future trend depending on the U.S. - Iran negotiation progress [33][34][36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Equity index futures: IC rose 3.8% and IM rose 2.9% [10][12] - CGB futures: TF rose 0.08% and TL dropped 0.10% [10] - Commodity futures: Top gainers were Palladium (8.6% rise, 4.3% month - on - month open - interest decrease), Poly - Silicon (6.6% rise, 4.6% month - on - month open - interest decrease), and SCFIS(Europe) (5.2% rise, 1.3% month - on - month open - interest increase); top decliners were Silver (16.7% decline, 10.4% month - on - month open - interest decrease), Tin (6.7% decline, 7.5% month - on - month open - interest decrease), and Crude Oil (4.9% decline, 12.6% month - on - month open - interest decrease) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Copper - On February 3, the front - month contract of copper rose 2.6% to 104,500 yuan/ton (SHFE) [16][21][23] - Macro: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair led to a stronger dollar and copper price correction [17][21] - Supply - demand: Supply disruptions increased, long - term processing fees were at a low, squeezing smelters' profits; demand is currently weak but expected to be tight in the long run [18][19][20] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Tin - On February 3, the front - month contract of tin dropped 6.7% to 383,340 yuan/ton (SHFE) [26][29][31] - Supply: Issues in Wa State, Indonesia, and DRC affect supply; mineral - end supply tightens and smelter capital pressure increases [27][29][30] - Demand: Semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors drive demand growth [27][30] - Risk: Short - term price volatility due to a strong dollar, stable supply, and weakened long - side momentum [28][30] 3.1.3.2 Crude Oil - On February 3, the front - month contract of crude oil dropped 4.9% to 449.4 yuan/barrel (INE) [33][36][38] - Geopolitical: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, reducing the geopolitical premium [33][36] - Fundamentals: Global inventories rose, Kazakhstan's supply recovered, and refined - oil inventories faced pressure [34][36] - Outlook: Supply is in surplus; future prices depend on U.S. - Iran negotiation progress [35][36] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Shanghai launched the acquisition of second - hand housing for affordable rental housing in Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui Districts to meet talents' "job - housing balance" needs [41] 3.2.2 Industry News - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the Ag(T + D) contract's margin from 26% to 23% and the price fluctuation limit from 25% to 22% starting February 3, 2026 [42]

Core Insights - The trade agreement between the US and India involves reducing US tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, while India commits to purchasing over $500 billion worth of US products, including energy, technology, and agricultural goods [1][6][10] - Analysts express skepticism regarding India's ability to fulfill its commitment, particularly the $500 billion purchase, given its current economic scale and the need for energy import diversification [2][4][7] Trade Agreement Details - The agreement aims to enhance geopolitical ties between India and the US, potentially benefiting India's manufacturing sector [1][6] - Indian textile, engineering, and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to be the primary beneficiaries of the tariff reduction [1][6] - The agreement is seen as a political signal rather than a concrete economic plan, with analysts suggesting that the $500 billion figure lacks a specific timeline for implementation [4][7] Energy Import Dynamics - India is expected to continue importing Russian oil despite the agreement, as it prioritizes energy import diversification [4][8] - The Indian government supports a diversified energy import strategy and will not interfere with corporate decisions regarding oil purchases [8][10] - Analysts predict that India's reliance on discounted Russian oil may decrease over time, with increased procurement from the US and the Middle East [4][8] Broader Economic Context - The recent free trade agreement between India and the EU may have influenced the US-India trade negotiations, highlighting India's push for trade diversification [2][7] - The US is India's largest market, accounting for approximately 18% of India's total exports last year [10] - Despite previous high tariffs imposed by the US, India's economy is projected to grow at a rate of 7.4% in the fiscal year 2025-26 [10]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that domestic fuel prices in China will increase starting from February 3, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively [1] - The average price increase for 92 octane gasoline, 95 octane gasoline, and 0 diesel is 0.16 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.17 yuan per liter [1] - The increase in fuel prices is attributed to fluctuations in international oil prices, which experienced a rise followed by a decline during the adjustment period from January 20 to February 2 [3] Group 2 - The international oil prices were influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. increasing pressure on Iran and adverse weather conditions affecting production [3] - Brent crude oil prices initially surged above $70 per barrel but later fell to around $66 per barrel as geopolitical tensions eased with the initiation of U.S.-Iran negotiations [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates continued volatility in international oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, despite an upward revision in global economic growth forecasts by the International Monetary Fund [5]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices have experienced consecutive increases in 2026, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton respectively, leading to higher consumer fuel costs [1][2]. Group 1: Price Changes - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that from February 3, 2026, gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 0.16 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.17 yuan per liter respectively [1]. - Consumers filling a 50-liter tank will incur an additional cost of approximately 8 yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions in the U.S. affecting production, with Brent crude oil prices initially exceeding $70 per barrel before dropping to around $66 [2]. - The International Monetary Fund has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, while the International Energy Agency has increased its oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that after the recent price adjustments, the price change rate may turn negative, with significant variability in future crude oil prices [3]. - Increased gasoline demand is expected due to the Spring Festival travel season, while diesel demand remains subdued due to reduced construction activities [3]. - Domestic supply of refined oil is expected to be relatively ample, with increased operational capacity in refineries, leading to potential downward pressure on gasoline and diesel prices in the short term [3].

一些金属凭借在数据中心和电网设施建设中的核心应用率先迎来牛市，合并各金属矿物对数据中心和电网设施分别 的价值贡献度来看，可对金属矿产的"AI含金量"排序，依次为钒、铜、锂、镓、铝等。金银等则依托金融属性成为 AI 泡沫的对冲工具，原油因抑制通胀的中选诉求暂时站在了AI叙事对立面。 本文来自格隆汇专栏：国金证券研究所，作者：宋雪涛 核心观点 大宗商品的涨价与AI叙事有千丝万缕的联系，并且不同的大宗商品对AI的敞口不同，如同光谱呈现鲜明的差异化。 风险提示：AI商业化节奏超预期；有色金属涨价对下游制造业需求形成挤出；AI领域对各金属矿物依赖度数据可得 性有限，文中采用世界经济论坛基于2035年的预测，但未来9-10年科技发展会有较多不确定性，对金属价格的影响 存在变数。 正文 一、大宗商品从周期性定价转向结构性定价 当AI发展所面临的实体资源瓶颈逐渐成为共识，这些瓶颈正在重塑各类大宗商品在新时代下的价格逻辑。AI算力指 数级增长所需要的电力、设备、传输介质等物理基础，都依赖于大宗商品。一部分商品的物理属性直接受益于能源 电力基础设施、电气基础设施、冷却与热管理系统、半导体及硬件投入、数据中心建筑材料相关的建设投入 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that domestic fuel prices in China will increase starting from February 3, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton respectively, translating to an increase of 0.16 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.17 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel [2][3] - The international oil prices experienced fluctuations during the adjustment period, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions in the U.S., but later declining as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran began to ease tensions [5][6] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) anticipates continued volatility in international oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, despite improvements in global economic growth forecasts and oil demand projections [6]

Group 1 - The international gold price has been rising since the beginning of the year, with the London spot gold price increasing from around $4,300 per ounce to over $4,960 per ounce, marking a nearly 15% increase within the month [3] - As a result of the rising international gold prices, the price of gold in China has also reached new highs, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange spot gold price and the main gold futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange both surpassing 1,110 yuan per gram on January 23 [3] - Factors contributing to the increase in gold prices include strong long-term support from central bank purchases and robust investment demand, as well as geopolitical factors that have led to more safe-haven funds entering the market [3] Group 2 - The price of gold jewelry in China has exceeded 1,500 yuan per gram, with some brands reaching 1,548 yuan per gram, reflecting a significant increase of over 50 yuan per gram from the previous day [1] - A consumer reported investing over 650,000 yuan in gold over nearly 15 years, with an estimated value of over 1.7 million yuan, resulting in a return of over 1 million yuan and a yield of 159.28% [1] - The rising gold prices have generated interest and envy among consumers, with many expressing regret for not investing in gold earlier [1]