除了个人投资者，不少上市公司也将黄金挂钩结构性存款纳入了资金配置范围。从近期披露的理财公告 来看，多家企业选择通过此类产品布局黄金，押注金价上行。 外资银行产品风险等级更高 在黄金市场波动，交易风险攀升的环境下，承诺保本的结构性存款仍具有相当的"吸金"优势。开年以 来，已有多家中资、外资银行推出了挂钩黄金的结构性存款。 1月1日，星展银行"星展丰盛理财"推出看涨黄金主题结构性存款，强调"持有到期100%保本"，并可"捕 捉挂钩标的市场收益实现收益增厚"。该产品挂钩黄金美元即期价格，期限12个月，潜在最高年化收益 4%，起投金额1万美元，风险等级为1级。 1月5日，汇丰中国推出的结构性存款则另辟蹊径，并非直接挂钩金价，而是跟踪紫金矿业、纽蒙黄金、 巴里克黄金等金矿企业表现。产品期限3年，票息年化4.5%，触发水平103%，最低年化回报0.1%，起投 金额2万美元，风险等级2级。 渣打银行推出的结构性存款产品，挂钩标的则为SPDR黄金信托。1月7日，该行发布的产品介绍显示， 该产品收益率范围为0%—5.0%（非年化收益），最低认购金额5万元，投资期限18个月。从产品特点 看，该产品是涨跌双赢结构，风险评级3级。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 | 2026-01-13 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 年度涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 殷指 | 炉深300用货 | 4758. 6 | -0. 53 | 0. 31 | 3. 45 | 3.45 | 3.45 | | | 上证50期货 | 3137. 6 | -0. 27 | 0.09 | 3.72 | 3.72 | 3.72 | | | 中证500期货 | 8131.2 | -1. 32 | 1.16 | 10. 44 | 10. 44 | 10. 44 | | | 中证1000期货 | 8160. 4 | -1. 87 | 1.39 | 9.74 | ...

原油价格于1月13日晚间大幅走高，此前美国加大对伊朗施压，同时 在俄罗斯黑海沿岸一个对于哈萨克斯坦原油至关重要的装运码头附近有油 轮遭到袭击。美国总统特朗普宣布，对与伊朗"做生意"的国家的商品加 征25%关税，并且不排除对这个波斯湾国家实施军事打击。期权市场也显 示出油价可能飙升的风险，交易员对看涨合约要求的溢价，已达到自以色 列和美国2025年对伊朗发动空袭以来的最高水平。伊朗和俄罗斯的地缘因 素是近期原油市场的主要关注点。 板块逻辑： 化工与原油的节奏略有不同，估值修复导致此轮化工反弹先于原油。 随着化工品利润的修复，后期需要关注装置开工率的提升情况，以PTA和 苯乙烯为例，当前产业中大部分装置都实现盈利。塑料期价持续反弹，本 周以来塑料的基差也由负转正，产业链的下游和终端都在积极补库；进口 套利窗口打开后，美金货源也报价走高，而当前美金低价货源有限。下游 需求淡季逐步来临，但并没有超越季节性的利空，塑料可能会延续震荡格 局。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 原油：地缘持续扰动，关注伊朗风险 沥青：沥青期价处于高估区间震荡 高硫燃油：委内瑞拉重油施压，燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价震 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol [2] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Ethylene glycol, natural gas [2][4] - **Bearish Rebound**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, asphalt [1][4] - **Bearish Consolidation**: PVC, glass, soda ash [1][4] - **Sideways Consolidation**: Urea [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances lead to a rebound in oil prices, but in the medium - to - long - term, supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure [1][7][9] - **LPG**: It rebounds following the cost - end oil price in the short - term, but in the medium - to - long - term, the price is expected to decline due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil [1][13][14] - **L**: The cost support improves, and the price continues to rebound. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market is expected to repair profits [1][18] - **PP**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase, and the cost end strengthens. The supply - demand is weak, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to PDH device dynamics [1][22] - **PVC**: The cancellation of export tax rebates poses a risk of weakening long - term exports. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Cost support strengthens, and there is an expectation of future maintenance [1][25] - **PX/PTA**: The valuation is not low, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be good. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05 [2][27][28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Take profit on short positions and pay attention to opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2][30][31] - **Methanol**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for MA05 [2][34][36] - **Urea**: The supply - side pressure increases. Although there are winter storage and spring fertilizer use expectations, be cautious about chasing up. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for UR05 [2][38][40] - **Natural Gas**: The supply side is abundant, and the gas price is under pressure. Although there is support in the demand season, the upward space is limited [4][44] - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical situation in South America leads to a shortage expectation of raw materials. The price center moves up, but there is still room for compression in the medium - to - long - term [4][48][49] - **Glass**: Short - term cold repairs support the price, but weak demand restricts the rebound space. The price fluctuates within a range [4][53] - **Soda Ash**: The demand for heavy soda weakens, and the supply is loose in the medium - to - long - term. The price fluctuates at the bottom [4][57] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On January 12, international oil prices rose. WTI increased by 2.35%, Brent by 2.18%, and SC by 1.87% [5][6] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to a rebound in oil prices. Core: In the off - season, crude oil supply exceeds demand, and global and US inventories are increasing [7][8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ production expansion puts pressure on prices. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but in the long - term, prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the range of SC [430 - 445] [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On January 12, the PG main contract closed at 4236 yuan/ton, up 0.33% month - on - month [12] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term: It rebounds following the oil price. Long - term: The oil price is under pressure, and the supply - demand is relatively stable. The inventory decreases [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price center is expected to move down. In the short - term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [14] L - **Market Review**: L05 closed at 6737 yuan/ton, up 0.9% month - on - month [16] - **Basic Logic**: The price of naphtha rises, strengthening cost support. The parking ratio increases, and production is expected to decline. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market is expected to continue to repair profits. Pay attention to the range of L [6600 - 6750] [18] PP - **Market Review**: PP05 closed at 6560 yuan/ton, up 0.7% month - on - month [20] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase the cost end. The supply - demand is weak in January, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. PDH profit compression increases the expectation of maintenance [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics. Pay attention to the range of PP [6400 - 6600] [22] PVC - **Market Review**: V05 closed at 4905 yuan/ton, down 1.3% month - on - month [23] - **Basic Logic**: The cancellation of export tax rebates poses a risk of weakening long - term exports. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Cost support strengthens [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it with a positive spread between months. Pay attention to the range of V [4800 - 4950] [25] PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 5108 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the past three months [26][27] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: The processing fee improves. Supply: The overall maintenance intensity is high. Demand: It is currently good but expected to weaken. Inventory: There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5080 - 5170] [28] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG05 closed at 3639 yuan/ton, at a low - level position in the past six months [29] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: It is relatively low. Supply: Domestic production capacity utilization increases, and the overseas maintenance is expected to be high. Demand: It is currently good but expected to weaken. Inventory: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and pay attention to opportunities for shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3790 - 3880] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract of methanol reduces positions and rises, and the port basis weakens [34] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: It is not low. Supply: Domestic and overseas production capacity utilization increases, and there is supply pressure in January. Demand: It improves slightly. Cost: The support is weakly stable [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for MA05. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2219 - 2269] [36] Urea - **Market Review**: UR05 closed at 1777 yuan/ton, at a high - level position this year [37][39] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: It is not low. Supply: The overall production capacity utilization increases, and the supply pressure exists. Demand: It weakens, and winter storage has limited positive effects. Inventory: It is at a relatively high level [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Winter storage has limited positive effects, and there is an export window and spring fertilizer use expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for UR05. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1750 - 1780] [40] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 9, the NG main contract closed at 3.169 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 6.99% month - on - month [43] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is abundant, and the recent demand is stable. The price is under pressure [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, there is demand support, but the supply is abundant, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG [3.131 - 3.576] [44] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 11, the BU main contract closed at 3142 yuan/ton, down 0.32% month - on - month [47] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in South America lead to a shortage expectation of raw materials. The cost profit decreases, the supply decreases, and the demand increases slightly. The inventory increases [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation returns to normal, but there is still room for compression. Pay attention to risks due to the uncertainty of raw material supply. Pay attention to the range of BU [3050 - 3150] [49] Glass - **Market Review**: FG05 closed at 1143 yuan/ton, down 0.1% month - on - month [51] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term cold repairs support the price, but weak demand restricts the rebound. The supply - demand is weak, and the profit of three processes turns negative [53] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price fluctuates within a range. Pay attention to the range of FG [1100 - 1150] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA05 closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 0.9% month - on - month [55] - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda weakens, the supply is loose in the medium - to - long - term, and the inventory decreases slightly [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price fluctuates at the bottom. Pay attention to the range of SA [1200 - 1250] [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern is expected to improve marginally next year. Despite short - term downside risks, due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is potential for bottom - fishing [2]. - The current situation of the internal - external price difference of urea has opened the import window. With the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [4]. - The geopolitical situation in Latin America does not provide sufficient bullish support for the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - grade oil products will be significantly raised. Therefore, the valuation of heavy - grade oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [6]. - The seasonal performance of rubber is weak. Currently, a neutral approach is recommended. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be adopted. It is also suggested to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [11]. - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, in the medium term, until there is a substantial reduction in production in the industry, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [13]. - The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively low level, with significant potential for upward valuation repair. By the end of the first quarter, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [16]. - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19]. - In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high. There are no prominent short - term contradictions, but the contract price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. - Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected that PX will maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX following the trend of crude oil on dips [24]. - In the short term, PTA is expected to continue to draw down inventory and then enter the Spring Festival inventory - building period. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PTA on dips and grasp the rhythm [26]. - The overall load of ethylene glycol remains relatively high, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of new device commissioning. If there is no further production reduction in China, the valuation is expected to be compressed [29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 9.90 yuan/barrel, a 2.27% increase, at 445.60 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.53% increase, at 2461.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 50.00 yuan/ton, a 1.66% increase, at 3066.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 5.70 million barrels to 210.81 million barrels, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.85 million barrels to 91.47 million barrels, a 2.06% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.00 million barrels to 93.56 million barrels, a 1.08% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.85 million barrels to 185.03 million barrels, a 1.57% increase [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The geopolitical situation in Latin America does not provide sufficient bullish support for the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - grade oil products will be significantly raised. Therefore, the valuation of heavy - grade oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil are expected to have upward momentum [6]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: No specific market quotes provided in the given text. - **Strategy Views**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern is expected to improve marginally next year. Despite short - term downside risks, due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is potential for bottom - fishing [2]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton, in Henan by 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, in Hubei remained unchanged, in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton, in Shanxi remained unchanged, and in the Northeast remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 44 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 9 yuan/ton, at 1774 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy Views**: The current situation of the internal - external price difference of urea has opened the import window. With the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [4]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. The long - side of natural rubber RU believed that rubber production in Southeast Asian rubber forests might be limited, rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand was expected to improve. The short - side believed that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, supply was increasing, and demand was in the seasonal off - season. As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from the previous week and down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory pressure of all - steel tire factories increased. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from the previous week and down 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 2.5% increase from the previous week. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.5 tons, a 3% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 41.7 tons, a 1.3% increase. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 54.43 (+2.49) tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15,000 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1900 (- 10) US dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1900 (- 10) US dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9250 (+50) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11450 (+50) yuan [8][9][10]. - **Strategy Views**: The seasonal performance of rubber is weak. Currently, a neutral approach is recommended. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be adopted. It is also suggested to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC05 contract decreased by 52 yuan, at 4888 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4670 (+50) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 218 (+102) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 121 (- 11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 730 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 674 (- 14) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.7%, a 1% increase from the previous week; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.7%, a 1.4% increase; the ethylene method was 79.6%, a 0.3% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 44%, a 0.1% increase. The in - factory inventory was 32.8 tons (+1.9), and the social inventory was 111.4 tons (+3.7) [12]. - **Strategy Views**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, in the medium term, until there is a substantial reduction in production in the industry, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [13]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Quotes**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of pure benzene in East China was 5440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 144 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7200 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton; the basis was 172 yuan/ton, an increase of 296 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 124 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 43.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.95 yuan/ton. The spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, an increase of 0.22%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.90%, an increase of 0.11%. The PS operating rate was 58.90%, a decrease of 1.50%; the EPS operating rate was 46.72%, an increase of 3.07%; the ABS operating rate was 69.80%, a decrease of 0.10% [15]. - **Strategy Views**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively low level, with significant potential for upward valuation repair. By the end of the first quarter, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6766 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 91 yuan/ton, a weakening of 29 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase from the previous week. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 39.54 tons, an increase of 2.47 tons from the previous week, and the inventory of traders was 2.93 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease from the previous week. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Views**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6430 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 115 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease from the previous week. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 46.77 tons, a decrease of 2.3 tons from the previous week; the inventory of traders was 20.47 tons, an increase of 2.75 tons from the previous week; the port inventory was 7.11 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons from the previous week. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease from the previous week. The LL - PP spread was 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Strategy Views**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high. There are no prominent short - term contradictions, but the contract price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX03 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 7282 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 2 US dollars, at 899 US dollars. Converted at the central parity of the RMB, the basis was - 18 yuan (+42), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan (- 12). The PX operating rate in China was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase from the previous week; the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. In terms of facilities, there were few changes in China, a 82 - ton facility in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week, and there were few changes in facilities this week. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 14.6 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of January, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.02 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 339 US dollars (- 2), the South Korean PX - MX was 144 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (- 2) [23]. - **Strategy Views**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected that PX will maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX following the trend of crude oil on dips [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 2 yuan, at 5140 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 40 yuan, at 5060 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan (- 11), and the 5 - 9 spread was 52 yuan (+4). The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase from the previous week, and there were few changes in facilities this week. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of facilities, 75 - ton bottle chips of Sanfangxiang, 12 - ton bottle chips of Yipu, and 10 - ton chemical fiber of Jindayu were under maintenance, and 50 - ton bottle chips of Sanfangxiang were restarted. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 2% to 72%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 3% to 56%. In terms of inventory, on January 9, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.005 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 50 yuan to 295 yuan, and the on - screen processing fee increased by 15 yuan to 363 yuan [25]. - **Strategy Views**: In the short term, PTA is expected to continue to draw down inventory and then enter the Spring Festival inventory - building period. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PTA on dips and grasp the rhythm [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG05 contract decreased by 65 yuan, at 3815 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 48 yuan, at 3686 yuan. The basis was - 147 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 118 yuan (- 14). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was

Stock Market - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback, with the Wind All A index dropping by 1.18% and a record trading volume of 3.7 trillion yuan [9] - The China Securities 1000 index fell by 1.84%, the China Securities 500 index by 1.28%, the CSI 300 index by 0.6%, and the SSE 50 index by 0.34% [9] - The rise in A-share indices at the beginning of 2026 was primarily driven by global technological advancements, highlighted by the CES event and Nvidia's new Rubin architecture announcement [9] - Geopolitical tensions have led to increased interest in rare metals, which are crucial for high-tech manufacturing and military industries, resulting in short-term price surges [9] - Historical trends suggest that after geopolitical clarity, related metals may see inventory releases and price corrections, indicating a potential for high volatility in the short term [9] Bond Market - On Tuesday, the 30-year bond futures rose by 0.28%, the 10-year by 0.06%, the 5-year by 0.04%, while the 2-year remained stable [10] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 358.6 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a stable interest rate of 1.4% [10] - The funding environment remains reasonably ample, supporting the bond market, but economic stability, rising inflation, and cautious interest rate cuts pose constraints [10] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound pattern in the short term, with upward pressure requiring significant inflation increases and downward pressure needing interest rate guidance [10] Precious Metals - Gold prices showed high volatility, while silver continued to perform strongly, and platinum and palladium adjusted [11] - The gold-silver ratio decreased to around 52.4, with the platinum-palladium price difference rising to approximately 501 USD/ounce [11] - The U.S. December CPI rose by 2.7%, aligning with expectations, while core CPI growth was slightly below expectations at 2.6% [11] - Geopolitical issues, including U.S. citizens being advised to evacuate Iran, have heightened investor concerns, keeping gold's appeal strong in the short term [11] - Changes in margin requirements for gold and silver contracts may impact trading dynamics, with gold margins adjusted to about 5% of nominal value and silver to about 9% [11]

Group 1: Core Insights - The article predicts that the market focus in 2026 will shift towards the "U.S. midterm election cycle + global demand recovery," which may lead to a temporary easing of geopolitical pressures [1][2][24] - The U.S. is entering a midterm election year, which is expected to elevate domestic political agendas and create conditions for the recovery of local manufacturing, supported by strong fiscal policy expectations [1][2][24] - Global market risk appetite is anticipated to remain high at least until expectations are fulfilled or exhausted, with emerging market fundamentals expected to remain resilient [1][2][24] Group 2: U.S.-China Relations - The U.S.-China relationship is expected to maintain a "fight but not break" phase, with the intensity of competition being manageable due to the midterm election dynamics and key issues like rare earths [3][26] - Three variables are likely to influence the pace of U.S.-China relations: the midterm election schedule, the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, and adjustments in the U.S. National Security Strategy [3][26] Group 3: U.S.-Europe Relations - The EU's "de-risking" stance is shifting from passive to active, with an increase in the probability of localized trade disruptions, although the overall impact on the EU's policies remains uncertain [15] - The EU has updated its economic security framework, introducing six high-risk priority areas and six "de-risking" policy tools, which may have direct implications for China [15][16] Group 4: Asia-Pacific Dynamics - The U.S. National Security Strategy emphasizes the role of allies in regional security, with Japan seeking to strengthen its alliance with the U.S. to enhance its geopolitical influence [15] - Relations between South Korea and China may remain balanced, with South Korea adopting a flexible stance towards China while cooperating in traditional trade areas [15] Group 5: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are expected to maintain demand vitality in 2026, with ASEAN and India showing strong demand for Chinese exports, while Africa is projected to experience a mild recovery [21] - The economic cooperation between China and Middle Eastern countries is anticipated to deepen, with a focus on both new and traditional energy sectors [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On January 13, equity index futures declined while CGB futures advanced. Most commodities moved lower, with metal futures seeing a divergent performance [2][10][12]. - The MIIT emphasized at its meeting to conscientiously resist internal competition and promote win - win outcomes [1][3][35]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 13, in equity index futures, IM dropped 1.8% and IC dropped 1.2%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.3% and T rose 0.1%. Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were Lithium Carbonate (up 7.4% with open interest decreasing 9.2% month - on - month), Silver (up 5.9% with open interest increasing 2.7% month - on - month), and Tin (up 4.1% with open interest falling 15.4% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 5.4% with open interest increasing 4.5% month - on - month), Palladium (down 5.2% with open interest decreasing 0.8% month - on - month), and Poly - Silicon (down 4.4% with open interest remaining unchanged) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Rose - **Benzene**: On January 13, it rose 0.9% to 5,584 yuan per ton. Recent price increases were driven by downstream styrene export deals, firm US - denominated prices and high US - South Korea price spread, geopolitical tensions, and improved macro sentiment. However, the market has weak fundamentals, high inventory, and oversupply, limiting valuation recovery [16][17][19]. - **Ethenylbenzene**: On January 13, it rose 0.3% to 7,028 yuan per ton. The recent strength was due to robust exports, port destocking and tight liquidity, and firm macro sentiment and crude prices. The 1 - month stockbuild expectation has reversed, but there could be corrections if there are unforeseen supply increases or liquidity easing [24][25][26]. 1.3 Daily Dropped - **Poly - Silicon**: On January 13, it fell 4.4% to 49,005 yuan per ton. On the supply side, northern furnace operations changed little, and southwest operations were at a low ebb. On the demand side, it was in the dry season. The revocation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products might marginally lift polysilicon operating rates in Q1. Overall, industrial silicon remains in a stock - build - up pattern [29][30][32]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The MIIT held a manufacturing enterprise symposium on January 13, emphasizing that entrepreneurs should focus on main businesses, resist cut - throat competition, and promote win - win outcomes. Also, the G7 finance ministers' plan to reduce rare - earth imports from China was responded to by China's Foreign Ministry, stating China's stance on maintaining global critical mineral supply chain stability [35][36][37]. 2.2 Industry News - CME Group notified on January 12 that it will adjust precious metals margin requirements after the close on January 13, based on a routine assessment of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage [38][39]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations with a slight opening increase, reaching a high of 4634/4635 before retreating, indicating a potential short-term correction while maintaining a long-term optimistic outlook due to factors like interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations: The US December CPI and core CPI data were lower than expected, reinforcing market bets on two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. However, the lower inflation also suggests economic cooling, which diminishes gold's appeal as an inflation hedge, leading to profit-taking [2]. - Geopolitical Support: Tensions from the Trump administration's investigation into the Federal Reserve's independence and threats of tariffs on Iran's trade partners have heightened demand for safe-haven assets, providing underlying support for gold prices despite the strength of the dollar [2]. Key Focus for Today - The US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, and several economic indicators, including retail sales and PPI data, will be released. These factors are expected to influence the dollar's movement and gold price volatility [3]. - Overall, while gold faces short-term correction pressure, long-term factors such as the interest rate cycle and geopolitical dynamics support its status as a safe-haven asset, with a positive outlook for 2026 [3]. Technical Analysis - Daily Level: Gold's price action on Tuesday ended with a bearish candle after a series of gains, indicating a potential pause in the upward trend. The 5-day moving average at 4550 is crucial for support; a drop below this level could signal further correction risks [4]. - Four-Hour Level: The price structure remains focused on the upward channel formed since 4274, with key support at 4570 and resistance between 4636-4640. A breakout above these levels could lead to further upward movement, while a drop below 4550 would necessitate caution regarding support levels [6]. Summary of Resistance and Support Levels - Resistance levels to watch: 4635/4640, 4662, and 4689/4690 [6]. - Support levels to monitor: 4570, 4550, 4521, and 4500/4494 [6].

Market Performance - The main contract BU 2603 opened high and maintained fluctuations, closing at 3140, down 0.66% from the previous settlement price, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 3.9% [31][32] - The next month contract 2606 decreased by 0.25% compared to the previous settlement price, with the near-month contract showing a larger decline than the far-month contract [31] Spot Market - The market price for Shandong heavy asphalt is 3080 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 4.4%. The Shandong basis is -60 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 12 CNY/ton [31][32] - The market price for East China heavy asphalt is 3200 CNY/ton, also unchanged. The East China basis is +60 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative decrease of 8 CNY/ton [31] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -144 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative decrease of 15 CNY/ton. The main BU contract closed down 0.5%, while Brent decreased by 0.1% [31][32] - The geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have led to stronger oil price increases compared to asphalt, indicating a risk point for the multi-crack spread [31] Fundamental Changes - According to Longzhong's spot price statistics, the reference price for Shandong independent refineries is between 3010-3140 CNY/ton, with the main reference price at 3220-3240 CNY/ton, and the market benchmark price at 3080 CNY/ton [32] - The tightening of available spot resources is noted, with East China heavy asphalt prices remaining stable [32] - Refineries are expected to gradually increase asphalt production due to acceptable profit margins, which may squeeze profit margins and require more raw materials [32][33] Short-term Outlook - The near-month contract is expected to focus on geopolitical premiums [33] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a fluctuating approach, focusing on near-month contracts while buying low on far-month contracts, with a temporary observation on the crack spread [34]