1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, the rubber futures prices showed a volatile trend. As of October 31, the main contract of Shanghai rubber closed at 15,090 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative increase of 5 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 0.03%. The INE 20 - rubber contract closed at 12,160 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative decrease of 70 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.57% [2] - In October, the rubber price fluctuated. Macro - policies were intensively introduced, and market sentiment expectations were repeated, increasing rubber price fluctuations. Globally, it was still in the high - yield period, with sufficient rubber supply and less weather disturbance. In the Chinese market, natural rubber supply was abundant, with a 4.4% year - on - year increase in supply from January to August. Downstream, domestic tire enterprises maintained a high operating rate, but high inventory limited their restocking enthusiasm. Bonded area inventory remained high without a turning point, and imports were at a relatively high level. In September, tire production and exports continued to grow year - on - year, automobile consumption was stable, and heavy - truck consumption increased significantly year - on - year for five consecutive months. Sino - US trade relations improved. Looking forward, from December, natural rubber tapping in China will gradually slow down, supply pressure will ease, consumption will be tepid, and policies will still have a supporting effect, so rubber prices may have upward momentum [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In August, rubber futures prices fluctuated upward. As of August 29, the main contract of Shanghai rubber closed at 15,860 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative increase of 480 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 3.12%. The INE 20 - rubber contract closed at 12,725 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative increase of 375 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 3.04% [8] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. ANRPC Slight Increase in Production from January to August, Abundant Domestic Supply - In August, Thailand's natural rubber production was 458,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%; Indonesia's production was 189,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.90%; Malaysia's production was 35,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.51%; Vietnam's production was 140,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.19%. In August, ANRPC's total production was 1.0787 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.25%. From January to August, ANRPC's total production was 6.8555 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.76% [12] 3.2.2. Tire Operating Rate at a High Level, Stable Growth in Tire Exports - In October, tire enterprises' operating rates were high. As of October 30, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.41%, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.34%. In September, tire exports grew steadily. The export volume of automobile tires in China was 56.3 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 10.65% and a year - on - year increase of 3.74%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of new pneumatic tires was 365.48 million pieces, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.64% [14] 3.2.3. Stable Growth in Automobile Production and Sales, Six Consecutive Months of Year - on - Year Growth in Heavy - Trucks - In September, China's automobile sales were 3.2264 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.86%. Among them, passenger car sales were 2.8585 million vehicles, and heavy - truck sales were 105,600 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 82.95%. Heavy - trucks had six consecutive months of year - on - year growth, with the growth rate expanding month by month [18] 3.3. Outlook for the Future - In October, rubber prices fluctuated. Macro - policies and market sentiment affected prices. Globally, supply was abundant, and in China, natural rubber supply was sufficient. Downstream, tire enterprises had high inventory. In September, tire production and exports increased, automobile consumption was stable, and heavy - truck consumption grew significantly. Sino - US trade relations improved. From December, rubber tapping in China will slow down, supply pressure will ease, and rubber prices may have upward momentum [23]

安如泰山 信守承诺 关于中国对美国大豆进口关税下调的点评 国投期货研究院 10月30日，中美两国元首在韩国釜山举行会谈，这是习近平主席同特朗普总统时隔6年再度见 面,也是特朗普总统新任期内中美元首首次会晤。继中美马来西亚经贸磋商形成初步共识后、本次 会面成果显著,双方均表示将相应调整关税措施。 今日（11月5日）国务院关税税则委员会宣布，自2025年11月10日13时01分起，停止实施今年 税委会公告2025年第2号规定的加征关税措施。并调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国 的进口商品加征关税的公告》规定的加征关税措施，在一年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税 率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率。此公告利多，连柏期货继续上涨，截至收盘涨幅为1.49%、3周 时间从底部上涨200余点，多头趋势明显。 根据公告我们可以计算出，自2025年11月10日13时01分起，我国进口美豆的税率改为13%，但 商业进口美豆依然没有价格优势。金十数据显示，截至11月4日，目前美湾、美西与巴西的ONF到岸 价格相差不大,但关税相差10%。在关税制约下美国大豆依然没有进口价格优势,预计大豆商业买 船难以发生。 | | | 中 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal (★★☆), Rapeseed Meal (★★☆) [1] - **Slightly Bullish**: Soybean Oil (★☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (★☆☆), Corn (★☆☆) [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean (☆☆☆), Palm Oil (☆☆☆), Egg (☆☆☆) [1] - **No Rating Information**: Live Pig [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, and provides short - term investment strategies and key points to watch [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean - Soybean prices rebounded from the low after a few days of decline, and the spot purchase price was stable. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans narrowed. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback strength of domestic soybeans [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Affected by the adjustment of China's import soybean tariff policy, the soybean meal futures continued to rise by 1.49%. After the tax cut, the import tax rate of US soybeans was changed to 13%, but there was still no price advantage. The increase in US soybean prices would raise the cost of imported soybeans and soybean meal. Some USDA reports will resume in November. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips after the Sino - US trade eases [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans were consolidating after a rebound. Domestic soybean crushing was at a loss, and both oil and meal were strong, with meal slightly stronger than oil. The domestic soybean oil main contract was stronger than palm oil. Palm oil faced the risk of a short - term callback due to high inventory in Malaysia, higher - than - expected production in Indonesia, and weak export demand. Future attention should be paid to the supply from the origin and the performance of the soybean market [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The positions of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil main contracts increased, with the trend of strong meal and weak oil continuing. The supply of rapeseed meal was expected to be tight due to the low inventory of rapeseed in coastal oil mills. The market focused on Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian economic and trade relations. A short - term strategy of being bullish on rapeseed meal and bearish on rapeseed oil was maintained [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures were oscillating weakly. The supply of new corn in Northeast China was stable, and the logistics was tight. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. After the tax cut, the import tax rate of US corn was changed to 11% within the quota. The signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement needed to be continuously monitored [7] Live Pig - Live pig futures rebounded sharply from the low, with a reduction of 10,000 lots in positions. The spot price continued to fall. Due to the continuous recovery of production capacity and the pressure of second - fattening, the pig price was expected to have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Egg - Egg futures increased their positions by 40,000 lots strongly, with multiple contracts hitting new highs. The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The increase in vegetable prices provided support for egg prices. The in - production inventory was still at a high level, and the chicken - chick replenishment in October was low. The short - term trend of the futures was strong, and opportunities to short on highs in the fourth quarter could be waited for [9]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic performance. Although the easing of Sino - US trade relations boosts the US soybean futures price to a 16 - month high and raises domestic import costs, the soybean meal futures price lacks the impetus to follow the increase. With some short - term funds taking profits and leaving the market, the soybean meal futures price turns into wide - range fluctuations. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at the highest level in 7 years, and the continuous losses in the breeding sector lead to weak demand, putting pressure on the spot price and keeping the soybean meal basis negative. Short - term sentiment and cost - driven market face industrial chain pressure, and there is a risk of high - level correction [5] - The palm oil performs the weakest in the oil market, with the market expecting the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of October to climb to a two - year high of 2.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 30%, which exerts pressure on Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, although the weekly inventory of the three major edible oils has decreased slightly, the total inventory remains at a relatively high level, indicating that the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Currently, the market is dominated by pessimistic sentiment, and the pattern of strong meal and weak oil continues. The palm oil futures price will remain weak in the short term [7] 3. Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: The short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is also "oscillation with a weak bias" [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The soybean market has an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The rise in US soybean prices due to Sino - US trade relations and import costs fails to drive up domestic soybean meal prices effectively. High inventory, weak demand from the breeding sector, and negative basis all contribute to the weak performance. There is a risk of high - level correction [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: The short - term view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "oscillation with a weak bias" [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil is the weakest in the oil market. High expected Malaysian inventory and relatively high domestic inventory, along with a pessimistic market sentiment and a strong - meal - weak - oil pattern, lead to its weak short - term performance [7]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has voted to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, with a vote of 51 in favor and 47 against, signaling a potential shift in U.S. trade policy [3] - Despite the Senate's decision, the House of Representatives, controlled by Republicans, is likely to block the resolution, making it difficult to overturn Trump's policies [5] - U.S. Trade Representative Tai has stated that investigations into China's compliance with the Phase One trade agreement will continue, indicating ongoing scrutiny of China's trade practices [5][7] - The U.S. is using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to investigate China's adherence to commitments regarding intellectual property and agricultural purchases, suggesting a continuation of aggressive trade tactics [7] - The recent developments reflect a complex U.S. trade strategy that combines conciliatory gestures with continued pressure on China, indicating that the trade relationship remains contentious [9] Summary by Sections U.S. Senate Actions - The Senate passed a resolution to end Trump's global tariff policy, aiming to alleviate economic pressures caused by trade wars [3] - Previous resolutions to remove tariffs on Canada and Brazil were also passed, indicating a broader shift in trade policy [3] House of Representatives Dynamics - The Republican-controlled House is expected to block the Senate's resolution, making it unlikely for the tariff termination to proceed [5] - Overturning a potential presidential veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers, which poses significant challenges [5] Ongoing Investigations - U.S. Trade Representative Tai confirmed that investigations into China's compliance with the Phase One trade agreement are ongoing, initiated under the previous administration [5][7] - The investigations focus on China's commitments related to intellectual property and agricultural purchases, suggesting a strategy to maintain leverage in negotiations [7] Trade Policy Implications - The U.S. is employing a dual strategy of offering conciliatory measures while simultaneously investigating and pressuring China, reflecting a complex trade relationship [9] - The approach indicates that the U.S. is attempting to manage its trade narrative while maintaining a hardline stance on compliance issues [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the export demand of US soybeans under the context of Sino-US negotiations. With the expectation of 12 million tons of exports to China being gradually priced in, the ending stocks are expected to remain around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. However, there is limited upward momentum due to the expected smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans. The domestic soybean meal is constrained by high near-term inventories, so the rebound space is limited. If the purchase of US soybeans is effectively initiated, it will bring a downward drive for the far-term, but the downward range is also limited due to the cost support from the rebound of the external market. For rapeseed meal, due to the ongoing Sino-Canadian negotiations affecting market expectations, the near-term futures performance is slightly stronger, but it is not advisable to chase the long side [1]. - The far-month soybean import profit has slightly recovered but remains at a low level, indicating limited far-term soybean purchases. With the easing of Sino-US trade relations, the market expects the resumption of US soybean purchases, alleviating the far-term supply gap. For rapeseed meal, there is a near-term supply gap due to Sino-Canadian tariffs, but demand is expected to weaken simultaneously. With the supply of rapeseed from other sources, the inventory is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter and slightly recover in the first quarter of next year. The "anti-involution" policy for downstream pigs is unlikely to effectively reduce demand, so the demand reduction is expected to be limited. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans has returned to normal, laying a foundation for a smooth harvest, while the soil moisture in Argentina is still slightly dry. The subsequent pressure of a bumper harvest will be transmitted to the domestic meal market in the form of basis [15]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on US soybean exports to China, with limited upward momentum. The domestic market is constrained by high near-term inventories, and the far-term may face downward pressure if US soybean purchases resume [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Affected by Sino-Canadian negotiations, the near-term performance is slightly stronger, but chasing the long side is not recommended. The domestic rapeseed import has decreased significantly this year, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expected resumption of Sino-Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the subsequent demand increase is limited, and supply is expected to recover [1][2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to oscillate within a range. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through this range [23]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced; consider a covered call strategy with options, selling 3300 call options for the M2601 contract; sell 2600 call options for the rapeseed meal 2601 contract [23]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: Use accumulating option purchases to reduce basis pricing risks, and view the basis as likely to return to positive and strengthen. Hold the positive spread positions for M3 - 5 and M1 - 3. Short the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 contracts when the spread is between 650 - 700 [24]. 1.3 Industry Client Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The soybean meal price is expected to range between 2800 - 3300, and the rapeseed meal price between 2250 - 2750 [26]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high protein inventories can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits [26]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts showed different changes, with some rising and some falling. The CBOT yellow soybean price remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [27]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed various trends, and the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed. The import costs and压榨 profits of US and Brazilian soybeans and Canadian rapeseed were also provided [28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US Department of Agriculture will release the production report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on November 14 (originally scheduled for November 10, but the release is uncertain due to the government shutdown). As of October 30, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 47%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year. The soybean planting area in Mato Grosso state has reached 76.13% of the expected area [31]. - **Negative Information**: Chinese importers have booked Brazilian soybeans due to price advantages. If China purchases 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year, it can meet the USDA's export target for the 2024/25 season, but it may not drive a continuous price increase. The short-term price increase sustainability needs to be observed, and if the agreement implementation falls short of expectations, there may be technical profit-taking pressure [32]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream buyers continue to purchase on a just-in-time basis [33]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monitor whether the USDA releases the supply and demand report on November 10. Also, pay attention to various reports such as the USDA export inspection report, Brazilian Secex weekly and monthly reports, USDA crop growth report, and CFTC agricultural product position report [37][40]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures rebounded due to short covering and the increase in external market costs. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal, with a stronger rebound due to reduced warehouse receipt pressure and Sino-Canadian trade relationship uncertainties. The capital flow shows that foreign institutional short positions were closed, and institutional long positions were reduced in the second half of the week, indicating limited upward space. The put-call ratio (PCR) of soybean meal options shows a return of bearish sentiment [38]. - **Month Spread Structure**: The futures month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal generally show a B structure in the first half of the year and a C structure in the second half, related to their seasonal supply patterns. This week, the 1 - 5 month spread of soybean meal first rose and then fell, and the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal strengthened due to the unilateral increase in the 01 contract [43]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined this week due to the faster increase in futures prices than spot prices. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly decreased [47]. - **External Market**: The external and domestic markets showed a more consistent trend this week. After the expectation of Sino-US trade talks and the news of soybean purchases, US soybeans rebounded significantly, and the domestic market followed suit. The net long positions of CBOT soybean management funds have returned above the zero line, indicating a short-term return of long funds [52][56]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The crushing profit in the US soybean production area has weakened due to the decline in soybean product prices, but the monthly crushing volume remains at a high level for the year. The crushing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) have also weakened, while the domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has increased due to the decline in rapeseed prices [58]. 4.2 Import and Export Crushing Profit Tracking - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has declined recently due to the increase in import costs after the rebound of the US market, but it is still better than the current US soybean crushing profit under a 13% tariff. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans in the future is limited, and the domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline seasonally around holidays. Although the import of rapeseed shows a crushing profit, due to the import margin requirement, future purchases are expected to remain cautious [63]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections 5.1 International Supply and Demand Balance Sheet Projections - For the new crop balance sheet in September, the planting area is expected to marginally increase after a significant downward revision in August, and the yield per acre is expected to marginally decrease after being adjusted to the highest level in history. The total production is expected to remain between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. On the demand side, the crushing volume is expected to continue to grow due to domestic biodiesel policies, while exports will remain weak due to Sino-US trade relations. If Sino-US trade resumes, exports are expected to recover to above-normal levels. The ending stocks are expected to remain moderately tight [68]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projections - Considering the potential import of US soybeans, the domestic soybean imports are expected to decline in the fourth quarter and then recover in the first quarter of next year. The import of rapeseed will continue to remain at a low level [70]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projections - The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to remain high due to the carry-over inventory from the third quarter and the arrival of soybeans in the fourth quarter. After the previous high-level stocking, the subsequent consumption growth of domestic soybean meal is expected to be limited [74]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projections - The domestic soybean inventory is currently at a seasonal high but is expected to decline in the fourth quarter as imports decrease and then stabilize and recover in the first quarter of next year. The domestic soybean meal inventory will also remain high despite the decline in raw material inventory and crushing volume [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to enter an adjustment phase. The price spread between COMEX and LME copper may narrow, and it is recommended to watch the opportunity of shorting COMEX copper and going long on LME copper [5][78]. - For zinc, the pressure of squeezing on LME zinc will ease, and it is suggested to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [5][38]. - The soybean market is still dominated by Sino - US trade relations. It is expected that the external market will be stronger than the domestic market, and it is recommended to go long on CBOT soybeans and short DCE soybeans [5]. - The Fed is expected to maintain its rate - cut policy in the first half of 2026. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index is limited and does not constitute a trend reversal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of gold fluctuated, and the valuation was at a neutral level. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [12]. - **Silver**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of silver fluctuated, and the overseas spread recovered to a neutral position. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [18]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, domestic copper inventories continued to accumulate, and the import window remained in a loss state. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [22]. - **Aluminum**: The traditional peak season has passed. Domestic aluminum ingots have started to accumulate slightly, and LME aluminum inventories have also increased. The short - term internal - external ratio remains range - bound. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [28]. - **Zinc**: Currently, the window for exporting Chinese zinc ingots to Southeast Asia and delivering to warehouses has opened, and domestic social inventories have started to decline. LME plans to introduce permanent rules to limit large near - month positions. It is recommended to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [38]. - **Lead**: The increase in domestic social inventories is limited, and smelter inventories are not high. LME lead inventories have decreased, and the ratio of cancelled warrants is relatively high. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [39]. - **Nickel**: The import window is closed, and the extreme price difference situation has improved significantly. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [46]. - **Tin**: Last week, the internal - external ratio of tin decreased, the spot import window remained closed, and the import loss was 15,516 yuan/ton. The driving force for the price spread is not obvious. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [50]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of iron ore remained in a narrow range with no obvious drivers. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [56]. 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent price spread fluctuated. Due to factors such as intensified freight fluctuations and uncertainty in Russian crude oil supply, it is recommended to wait and see this week [59]. 3.5 Agricultures - **Soybean**: Last week, the crushing profit was at the bottom and fluctuated. With the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the crushing profit is expected to gradually recover. It is recommended to go long on the external market and short the domestic market [65]. - **Sugar**: Last week, the import crushing profit increased. In the medium - to - long - term, the domestic market is likely to outperform ICE. This week, it is recommended to mainly wait and see [69]. - **20 -号胶**: Last week, there was little change, and the price spread was in a non - arbitrage range. With the start of the tapping season globally, supply is expected to increase, but demand shows no improvement. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [72]. 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the price spread between COMEX and LME copper widened mainly due to the strong performance of COMEX gold and silver. In the short term, the spread may narrow, and it is recommended to watch the opportunity of shorting COMEX copper and going long on LME copper [5][78]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent - Dubai EFS fluctuated lower. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production, and the monthly spread fluctuates more. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [83]. - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent price spread fluctuated. The refinery operating rate in the US weakened in October, the pressure on refined oil inventories eased, and crude oil imports were low. The driving force for the price spread is limited. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [89]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: Last week, the price spread weakened. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium term, as the winter in Northwest Europe is expected to be colder than in the US and European inventory replenishment is less sufficient than in the US, the winter price spread is expected to rise [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex and diversified trend with different products having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, the prices of some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, trade policies, and weather conditions [1][6][7]. - Different agricultural products are expected to have different trends in the future, such as some products are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to have upward potential [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. 油脂 - **观点**：走势分化，棕油情绪偏弱。美豆上涨但美豆油下跌，国内油脂走势分化，菜油反弹、豆油抗跌、棕油偏弱。宏观环境复杂，产业端美豆数据暂停更新，巴西大豆种植顺利，国内进口大豆到港量或处同期较高水平，马棕10月继续累库概率大，印尼棕油库存低位，印度植物油进口或季节性下降，国内菜油供应预期回升 [6]. - **展望**：棕油震荡偏弱，菜油震荡偏弱，豆油震荡。主要驱动因素包括马棕累库预期、印度植物油进口季节性下降、巴西豆种植顺利、国内菜油供应预期回升、进口大豆成本抬升 [6]. 3.1.2. 蛋白粕 - **观点**：中加关系扰动，菜粕大幅上涨。国际上，美豆出口预期受提振，巴西豆旧作10月出口量下调，新作播种进度同比偏快，阿根廷豆播种开启；国内短期油厂开机率回落，库存回升，中期采购、天气和消费旺季决定上涨高度，长期预计2025年四季度和2026年一季度大豆供需无缺口，中加关系或缓和。中加关税预期变化引发资金做多菜粕 [7]. - **展望**：美豆震荡、连粕震荡。豆粕价格受成本等因素驱动上涨，榨利修复抑制盘面，期价回调风险加大。建议豆粕1 - 5反套持有，看涨买权止盈，看跌卖权持有 [7]. 3.1.3. 玉米及淀粉 - **观点**：港口支撑盘面上行。国内玉米价格涨跌不一，港口受期货上涨影响价格上调，近期东北玉米集中上市，运输运力瓶颈对价格有支撑，但后续现货价格仍存在压力 [9][10]. - **展望**：震荡。短期观望为主 [10]. 3.1.4. 生猪 - **观点**：猪源充裕，价格走弱。短期二育栏舍利用率增加但猪价反弹抑制二育情绪，集团场出栏节奏偏快；中期预计四季度生猪出栏量继续增加；长期能繁母猪产能开始去化，供应压力将在2026年下半年逐步减轻 [10][11]. - **展望**：震荡偏弱。近月端生猪处在高位产能兑现期，价格弱势运行；远月端受去产能预期支撑，关注反套策略机会 [11]. 3.1.5. 天然橡胶 - **观点**：反弹告一段落，等待新的指引。天胶先跌后涨，维持底部横盘震荡调整格局，RU仓单持续注销，新胶注册进度慢，估值低，11月进口压力或对NR上方形成压力，短期RU - NR价差或修复，近期涨跌受宏观影响大 [12][13]. - **展望**：胶价维持底部震荡高弹性走势，单边难有趋势性行情，短期关注做扩RU - NR价差 [13]. 3.1.6. 合成橡胶 - **观点**：原料持续走弱，盘面创上市新低。主要因原料丁二烯价格快速探底，市场供需矛盾激化，下游买盘谨慎，市场供应面持续承压，年底前两个月丁二烯供需依旧偏过剩 [15][16]. - **展望**：基本面与原料端压力均较大，在丁二烯出现明显供需矛盾之前，盘面建议逢高布空 [16]. 3.1.7. 棉花 - **观点**：可预期利多多已消化，棉价短期继续上行动力减弱。宏观面贸易关系转好，盘面逻辑回归基本面，国内供给端新棉集中上市，需求端棉纺需求边际减弱，估值端对01合约有支撑但主力合约上行受限 [16][17]. - **展望**：短期01合约区间震荡；长期25/26年度中国棉花年度平衡表可能去库，带动棉价上行，震荡偏强 [17]. 3.1.8. 白糖 - **观点**：糖价反弹，但高度有限。国际市场巴西双周产量高峰期已过，但北半球进入开榨高峰期，国际糖价下行压力不改；国内市场近期反弹因进口管控趋严，但基本面无其它利多，南方糖开榨后供应量增多，内盘也有下行压力 [17][18]. - **展望**：中长期震荡偏弱，操作上维持反弹空思路，糖价运行区间参考5400 - 5500元/吨 [18]. 3.1.9. 纸浆 - **观点**：下游涨价预期驱动盘面上涨，上涨空间仍需谨慎。期货上涨，现货成交好转，针叶价格普涨，但纸浆此前交易的利空未完全结束，下游需求利多带来的上涨空间预计不高，同时也存在一些利多因素 [19][20]. - **展望**：震荡。仓单及弱供需主导市场，但废纸浆变化或带来异动，纸浆期货偏向观望 [20]. 3.1.10. 双胶纸 - **观点**：双胶纸跟随纸浆走强。新增装置生产逐步趋稳，纸张供应过剩，需求端出版招标开始但社会面订单未见明显提振，部分工厂产销压力较大，纸企发布涨价计划但市场观望情绪浓厚 [21][22]. - **展望**：单边策略维持观望。关注新驱动对资金情绪的影响 [22]. 3.1.11. 原木 - **观点**：上下两难，底部震荡。市场对利空交易充分，信息面海运费用升水挤出，基本面转弱，港口到货集中，集成材销售成交下降，新西兰原木外盘报价有调整，后期到船蓝变材压力大，但原木估值不高，江苏市场库存相对偏低 [24]. - **展望**：原木基本面转弱，现货存下跌，信息面博弈反复，近期底部区间震荡 [25]. 3.2. 品种数据监测 The report only lists the categories such as "油脂油料", "玉米、淀粉", "棉花、棉纱", "白糖", "纸浆及双胶纸", "原木", but no specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3. 中信期货商品指数 - **综合 Index**：The commodity 20 index is 2546.82, up 0.02%; the industrial products index is 2237.50, up 0.09%; the PPI commodity index is 1352.44, up 0.15% [182]. - **板块指数 - 农产品指数**：On November 3, 2025, it was 927.07, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a decrease of 0.40% in the past 5 days, a decrease of 2.07% in the past month, and a decrease of 2.90% since the beginning of the year [183].

Report Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Douyi [1] - **Bullish (★★☆)**: Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Slightly Bullish (★☆☆)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Douyi [1] - **Not Rated**: Live Hogs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are mainly affected by factors such as Sino-US and Sino-Canadian economic and trade relations, supply and demand, and cost [2][3][4][6] - Different agricultural products show different trends and investment opportunities, and attention should be paid to policy adjustments and market supply and demand changes [3][4][7] Summary by Category Soybean and Related Products - **Soybean**: The price of Douyi is approaching the previous platform high and shows a high-level consolidation state. The purchase price of domestic soybeans is stable, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed. The cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the crushing profit of the domestic soybean market is still in a loss state [2] - **Soybean Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal has risen, and the inventory has increased slightly. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the policy adjustment of China's soybean imports from the United States and look for opportunities to buy on dips [3] - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybean futures has rebounded, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has increased. The crushing profit of the domestic soybean market is still in a loss state. The price of soybean oil is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the supply of the origin and the performance of the soybean market [4] Palm Oil - The palm oil market in Malaysia still faces high inventory pressure, and the production in Indonesia is higher than expected. The export demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term callback [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures price of rapeseed meal has risen significantly, mainly due to market trading on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. It is recommended to maintain a short - term long - position thinking [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, and it benefits from the listing of imported rapeseed oil from Russia [6] Corn - The futures price of Dalian corn is running strongly, but the supply of new corn in the Northeast is increasing, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the import situation of corn, and the price may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs has fallen, and the futures price has hit a new low. Due to the continuous recovery of production capacity and the pressure of subsequent slaughter, it is expected that the price of live hogs may have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The futures price of eggs is strong, and the far - month contract has hit a new high. The price of vegetables provides support for the price of eggs. The inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling in the fourth quarter [9]

Report Information - Report Title: [Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report] US Soybeans and US Soybean Meal Prices Rise, with External Market Performance Stronger than Domestic Market [1] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The prices of US soybeans and US soybean meal increased, with the external market outperforming the domestic market. The price of CBOT soybeans was mainly influenced by the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The price of CBOT soybean meal was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and its low - level price advantage. The price of CBOT soybean oil declined due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation. The domestic soybean and soybean product markets were also affected by international market trends, as well as factors such as domestic supply and demand, inventory, and import and export conditions [9][13][20] Summary by Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean 11 - contract closed at 1100.00 cents per bushel, up 5.59% from the previous week, and the 01 - contract closed at 1115.00 cents per bushel, up 5.14%. The price increase was due to the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas was beneficial for harvesting, but the cumulative export inspection volume was still lower than the same period last year [9] 2. Soybean Meal - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean meal 12 - contract closed at 321.4 dollars per short - ton, up 9.36% from the previous week. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and the low - level price advantage [13] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean meal 01 - contract closed at 3021 yuan per ton, up 3.00%. The price increase was driven by the rise in CBOT soybean prices, but was restricted by the decline in Brazilian soybean premium quotes and high domestic soybean meal inventories [16] 3. Soybean Oil - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean oil 12 - contract closed at 48.62 cents per pound, down 3.32%. The price decline was due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation [20] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean oil 01 - contract closed at 8128 yuan per ton, down 0.81%. The price decline was affected by the fall in domestic competing vegetable oil prices and high domestic soybean oil inventories [23] II. Production Area Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Rainfall was mainly concentrated in the southern region, with slightly lower rainfall in the central - western region than normal, and the overall temperature was lower than normal [24][25] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to mainly occur in the southern region, and the temperature in the central part of the production area will be higher than normal [27] 2. Argentine Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Local rainfall in the main production areas was higher than normal, and the temperature was lower than normal [31] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to be slightly higher than normal, and the temperature will be slightly lower than normal [33] III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - USDA drought monitoring report: As of the week of October 28, about 34% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 39% the previous week and 73% in the same period last year [38] - Export inspection: The weekly export inspection volume met expectations, but the cumulative year - on - year decline continued to widen. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the export inspection volume was 1,061,375 tons. As of the week of October 24, 2024, it was 2,630,651 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 6,715,111 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.91% [40] - D4 RINs price: As of October 31, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 100 cents, unchanged from October 24 [43] - Other important news: The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on issues such as tariff cancellation, export control suspension, and expansion of agricultural product trade through consultations in Kuala Lumpur [45] 2. Brazilian Soybeans - Soybean production forecast: Different institutions' forecasts for the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production range from 1.75 billion to 1.8 billion tons [47] - Soybean sowing: As of the week of October 25, 2025, the soybean planting rate was 34.4%. The sowing progress in some states such as Mato Grosso and Parana was also reported [47][48] - Export sales: Anec lowered the October export forecast to 7 million tons. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the cumulative export volume was 99.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.26% [50][52] - Soybean premium: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium declined [55] - Brazilian soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 28.16 dollars per ton, down from 28.87 dollars per ton on October 24 [58] 3. Argentine Soybeans - Farmer sales: As of the week of October 22, 2025, the pre - sale of 2025/26 soybeans by Argentine farmers increased compared to the previous week [60] - Argentine soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 9.08 dollars per ton, down from 18.88 dollars per ton on October 24 [65] IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - China's imported soybean procurement progress: The procurement progress data for the week of October 28, 2025, was provided [68] - Port and oil - mill soybean inventories: As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.731 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from the previous week, and the oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.5129 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons [70] - Imported soybean arrivals and crushing: In the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the arrival volume was about 2.145 million tons, and in the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the actual crushing volume was 2.2534 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.99% [72] - Soybean oil trading volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the weekly trading volume was 80,700 tons, an increase from the previous week [74] - Soybean oil production and apparent consumption: In the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the production was 416,900 tons, and in the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the apparent consumption was 411,700 tons [76] - Soybean oil inventory: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.2503 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons from the previous week [80] 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - Soybean meal production and apparent consumption: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the production was 1.7802 million tons, a decrease of 90,100 tons from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, 2025, the apparent consumption was 1.7918 million tons, a decrease of 22,400 tons from the previous week [82] - Oil - mill soybean meal inventory and feed - mill physical inventory days: As of October 24, 2025, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, an increase of 78,400 tons from the previous week. As of October 31, 2025, the physical inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.02 days, an increase of 0.06 days from October 24 [85] - Soybean meal trading volume and pick - up volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the trading volume was 558,900 tons, an increase of 3.16% from the previous week, and the pick - up volume was 981,800 tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week [88] - Downstream demand: The losses in pig - breeding and piglet - purchasing breeding profits continued to narrow. The live - pig ex - factory price and the pig - grain ratio increased [91] - Soybean meal warehouse receipt quantity: As of October 31, 2025, the registered quantity of Dalian Commodity Exchange soybean meal warehouse receipts was 42,332 lots [93] V. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Product Spread Situations - Soybean oil basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of first - grade soybean oil in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [97][98] - Soybean meal basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of 43% soybean meal in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [100][102] - Product spread: Data on the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the ratios of soybean oil to soybean meal and corn to soybean meal were presented [104][105] 2. FOB Quotes - Quotes and spreads of soybean oil, Brazilian soybean meal, US soybean meal, and Argentine soybean meal FOB were presented [108][110][112] 3. CFTC Positioning - The net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil managed funds were presented [114][115]