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信达国际控股港股晨报-20250723
Xin Da Guo Ji Kong Gu· 2025-07-23 02:52
Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 26,000 points due to a stable economic outlook in mainland China and active market trading, despite limited corporate profit improvements [2] - The market remains active with a positive risk appetite, as funds rotate across different sectors [2] Macro Focus - Sweden will host a new round of US-China trade negotiations, with the aim of extending the tariff suspension period [4][7] - The US has reached a trade agreement with Japan, reducing tariffs to 15% and involving a $550 billion investment from Japan [7] - China's foreign exchange bureau reported a net increase of $10.1 billion in foreign investment in A-shares and funds in the first half of the year, indicating a stable growth outlook for foreign capital [8] Company News - Chow Tai Fook (1929) reported a 1.9% year-on-year decline in retail value for the first fiscal quarter [4] - TCL Electronics (1070) expects a mid-term adjusted net profit increase of up to 65% year-on-year, driven by quality growth in core business and improved product and channel structure [9] - ASMPT (0522) reported a 32% decrease in mid-term profit, with a dividend of 0.26 HKD per share [9] - WuXi AppTec (2268) anticipates a mid-term net profit growth of over 50% [4] - The Fourth Paradigm (6682) has launched Phancy AI smart glasses, with shipments expected in early August [9] Industry Insights - The Chinese smartphone market saw a 2.4% year-on-year decline in shipments in Q2, influenced by early product launches due to subsidy policies [8] - The gaming industry in China continues to see regulatory stability, with 134 new game licenses issued in July, including notable titles like NetEase's "Diablo IV" [8]
美财长称美中第三轮磋商下周举行
news flash· 2025-07-23 00:39
Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of the third round of China-US trade negotiations scheduled for next week in Stockholm, Sweden [1] - The previous two rounds of talks were held in Geneva and London [1] - The latest round of negotiations aims to postpone the deadline for the suspension of tariff increases, which is set for August 12 [1]
大越期货棉花早报-20250723
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 23:31
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are neutral, with various institutions' reports showing different production, consumption, and inventory data. The base - point indicates that the spot price has a premium over the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is bearish. The market trend is affected by factors such as the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation's three - month relaxation period and the expiration of pre - export orders. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou Cotton's main 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,500 [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariff increases between China and the US and a 90 - day export order rush period. Bearish factors are the approaching end of the three - month trade relaxation period, the consumption off - season, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, and an increase in inventory [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ICAC's July report shows a 2025/26 cotton production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons. USDA's July report shows a 2025/26 production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons. In June, textile and clothing exports were $27.31 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in June were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%; cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 report shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Base - point**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,549, with a base - point of 1324 (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: China's Ministry of Agriculture estimates an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons for the 2025/26 period in July [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: The three - month relaxation period of Sino - US trade negotiations is about to end. Although some progress has been made in the negotiations, the final situation is uncertain. The front - running export orders have basically ended, increasing market concerns. The 09 contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is significantly stronger than the 01 contract, and it may fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,500 in the short term [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: USDA's July report shows global cotton production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons in 2025/26. ICAC's data shows different production, consumption, and inventory figures for different years. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 data shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4][10][13][15]. - **Price - related Data**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,549, and the base - point is 1324 (for the 09 contract). The domestic cotton 3128B average price is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton in 2025/26, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [4][15]. 5. Position Data - The main position of cotton is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4].
局势失控,美国扛不住了,财长公开喊话:中国有我们想要的东西
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-22 14:17
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and its allies, particularly focusing on the backlash against the U.S. tariff policies and the implications for U.S.-China negotiations [1] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. has implemented a blanket tariff policy, imposing a 30% tariff on the EU and varying rates on Canada, Japan, and South Korea, which has not been well received by these traditional allies [1] - The EU has announced countermeasures against the U.S. tariffs, while Japan and Canada are also prepared to retaliate, indicating a unified front against U.S. trade actions [1] Group 2: U.S.-Vietnam Trade Agreement - The U.S. unilaterally announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, which included zero tariffs on U.S. goods entering Vietnam, but imposed a minimum 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the U.S. [1] - Vietnam's negotiation team was reportedly caught off guard by the U.S. decision to increase the tariff rate from an expected 11% to nearly 20%, leading to a lack of cooperation from Vietnam [1] Group 3: U.S.-China Negotiations - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed optimism about U.S.-China negotiations, emphasizing the mutual economic benefits and the need for cooperation between the two countries [1] - The article highlights the complementary nature of the U.S. and Chinese economies, with the U.S. needing external support for supply and China seeking external markets for its industrial output [1]
棕榈油:基本面无有效利空,宏观情绪助推豆油:美豆天气良好,品种间偏弱运行豆粕:美豆基本面好转,豆粕期价重心上移
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 13:18
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the agricultural products industry. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil shows a bullish trend due to the digestion of inventory highs, a lack of new negative factors, and positive macro - sentiment. Soybean oil is relatively weak due to good weather for US soybeans and a high inventory build - up rate [4][5][7]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to rise. The fundamentals of US soybeans have improved, and domestic soybean meal is affected by positive market sentiment and the rebound of US soybean prices. The fundamentals of domestic soybean No.1 remain stable, and the futures price is affected by market sentiment [19][20][24]. - **Corn**: The corn market is expected to continue its rebound. The supply - demand pattern of corn remains tight, and factors such as the rebound of spot prices in North China, a slight reduction in imported corn supply, and accelerated warrant cancellation are expected to improve market sentiment [46][47][51]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar market is in a low - level consolidation phase with a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern. Domestically, it shows an intra - strong and inter - weak pattern, with prices moving towards the cost of out - of - quota imports [76][77][113]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton has rebounded due to improved market sentiment, while domestic cotton futures have risen significantly, mainly driven by concerns about tight old - crop inventories and strong market sentiment. Attention should be paid to downstream textile enterprises' operating conditions and policy trends [114][115][132]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs is in a weak oscillation. In the off - season, the influence of large - scale farms on price adjustment is significant. With the arrival of the peak season, the release of social stocks will increase. Policy support such as state reserve purchases provides a price floor [135][136]. 3. Summary by Product Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Performance**: Palm oil 09 contract rose 3.25%, and soybean oil 09 contract rose 2.18%. The price of palm oil was boosted by the digestion of inventory highs and positive macro - sentiment, while soybean oil was relatively weak due to good US soybean weather [4][10]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Palm oil is in a bullish pattern, but there is a risk of callback if inventory builds up in August - September. Soybean oil will follow the overall trend of the oil and fat sector and is expected to benefit from potential positive factors such as the shortage of soybean imports [5][7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Performance**: US soybean prices rebounded, with the 11 - month contract rising 2.73%. Domestic soybean meal and soybean No.1 prices also rose, with the soybean meal m2509 contract rising 2.69% and the soybean No.1 a2509 contract rising 2.15% [19][20]. - **This Week's Outlook**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to rise. The improvement of US soybean fundamentals and positive market sentiment will support the price of soybean meal, while the price of soybean No.1 is affected by market sentiment and technical factors [24]. Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices fell last week. In the futures market, the price rebounded, with the C2509 contract closing at 2314 yuan/ton. The basis weakened [46][47]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices rose due to concerns about high - temperature weather. Wheat prices fell, and the auction of imported corn cooled down. Corn starch inventory increased slightly. The corn market is expected to continue its rebound [48][49][51]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: Internationally, the New York raw sugar price rose 1.39%. Domestically, the Guangxi group's spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose 16 yuan/ton. The net long position of funds increased slightly [76][77][92]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Internationally, the sugar market will be in a low - level consolidation phase. Domestically, it will maintain an intra - strong and inter - weak pattern, with prices moving towards the cost of out - of - quota imports [78][113]. Cotton - **This Week's Review**: ICE cotton rebounded due to improved market sentiment, and domestic cotton futures rose significantly, with the 9 - 1 spread widening. The downstream yarn and grey fabric prices also followed the increase, and textile enterprises replenished raw materials [114][115]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: ICE cotton's upward momentum is limited by good growth conditions and weak consumption prospects. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline if market sentiment cools down [119][132]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: In the spot market, hog prices were weak. In the futures market, the LH2509 contract price was also weak, and the basis narrowed [135]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Hog prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure will increase in the future, and demand will be suppressed by high temperatures. The state reserve purchase policy provides a price floor [136].
A股已连涨四周 创业板指“偷偷”领跑 “慢牛”剧本接下来怎么写?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-20 04:09
当下,市场涨到了什么位置? 数据显示,周K线来看,沪指已运行至去年"9·24"行情以来的次高位;下一个目标,便是反包10月8日当周的大阴线,不过仍有约140点的上涨空间。 | 已反包 | 未反包 | 曾反包但回落 | | --- | --- | --- | | 中证2000 | 深证成指 | 科创50 | | 北证50 | 创业板指 | 中证1000 | | 万得微盘股指数 | 沪深300 | | | | 中证500 | | | | 红利指数 | | 刚过去的交易周(7月14日至7月18日),A股实现连续4周上涨,"慢牛"趋势进一步显露。个股方面,超3100家本周累计上涨。 万得全A指数,距离完成反包则仅有一步之遥。 其他主要股指,目前对10月8日当周阴线的反包进度如下↓ 可见在"慢牛"行情中,不同标的的上涨幅度也有高下之别;而这也可能成为后市"高低切"的依据。 比如,从近四周表现来看,中证2000指数代表的小盘股虽然累计涨幅领先,但其高光时刻出现在前期;最近两周,其实际涨幅均弱于创业板指。 而创业板指不仅本周涨幅最大,近四周整体表现也排在前列(+13.29%),这一定程度上体现了资金偏好的变化。 | 证券简 ...
中美外长首次会晤即将举行,美国想要声东击西,中国则目的明确
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-19 05:27
Group 1 - The core focus of the recent ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting is the upcoming meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on July 11, marking the first high-level direct dialogue between the U.S. and China since the Trump administration's cabinet reshuffle [1] - The main topics of discussion are expected to cover three key areas: ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, strategies regarding sanctions and technology transfer, and regional security issues including Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][5] - Rubio's significant roles within the Trump administration, including Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, position him as a key decision-maker in U.S.-China relations, making this meeting crucial for the future trajectory of bilateral relations [3] Group 2 - There are speculations that Rubio may raise concerns about China's military support for Russia during the meeting, although this is viewed as a potential negotiation tactic rather than a genuine agenda item [5] - Rubio's visit to Southeast Asia coincides with Trump's announcement of new tariffs on ASEAN countries, which has not been well received by these nations, highlighting the challenges of U.S. unilateralism in trade [7] - ASEAN countries are likely to resist U.S. pressure, drawing lessons from successful strategies employed by China and Vietnam in navigating complex international dynamics [7]
特朗普玩套路,美对华出售次等芯片,3国辜负中方,稀土偷运美国
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 10:04
Group 1 - Recent signals from Trump suggest a potential easing of export restrictions to China, coinciding with the U.S. government's push for new global tariff policies [1] - The U.S. has reportedly relaxed restrictions on high-end chip exports to China, allowing Nvidia to export H20 chips, which may be perceived as a gesture of goodwill [3] - The exported chips are not the most advanced, indicating that the U.S. aims to maintain its technological edge in semiconductors while creating a favorable negotiation atmosphere for upcoming talks with China [3][4] Group 2 - Trump's strategy appears to be aimed at keeping China dependent on U.S. technology, thereby delaying China's progress in semiconductor self-research [4] - The U.S. is facing anxiety over its rare earth reserves, which can only sustain military needs for a few months, prompting a need for strategic negotiations with China [4] - As China imposes an antimony export ban, the U.S. is increasing imports through third-party countries like Thailand and Mexico, which are acting as intermediaries [5] Group 3 - A recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam imposes a 40% tariff on goods routed through Vietnam, which is seen as a move against China [7] - The U.S. may leverage third-party countries to undermine China's interests, indicating a potential shift in international trade dynamics [9] - China has expressed its readiness to counter any actions that harm its interests, signaling a firm stance against external pressures [9]
国投期货软商品日报-20250717
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 14:45
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Natural Rubber, 20 - rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards short, with a driving force for price decline, but poor operability on the market [1] - Logs: Not explicitly rated in the provided content Core Views - The prices of various commodities in the soft commodities market show different trends, affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and weather. Overall, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations for most commodities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise sharply, with the spot sales basis of domestic cotton firm. The cotton industry chain showed stronger raw materials, and the price of pure cotton yarn increased. There may be a short - squeeze situation due to the post - point - pricing behavior of downstream enterprises. The operating rate of inland spinning enterprises decreased, while that of Xinjiang spinning enterprises remained high. As of the end of June, the commercial cotton inventory was 282.98 million tons, a decrease of 62.89 million tons compared with the end of May. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the rainfall in the main producing areas in the second half of June was still heavy, affecting the sugarcane harvesting progress, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi increased year - on - year, the sales rate increased, and the industrial inventory decreased. The upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated weakly. The spot price remained stable. New early - maturing apples were on the market, and cold - storage apple prices began to decline. The demand for apples was low due to the large number of seasonal fruits and hot weather. As of July 11, the national cold - storage apple inventory decreased year - on - year. The market's trading focus shifted to the new season. It is recommended to maintain a short - biased thinking [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber - RU&MR rose, BR fluctuated. The domestic natural rubber price increased slightly, and the synthetic rubber price generally rose. The global natural rubber supply was entering the high - yield period. In June, the synthetic rubber production increased year - on - year, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased last week. In June, the output of Chinese rubber tires decreased year - on - year. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded slightly, and that of semi - steel tires rebounded significantly. The inventory in Qingdao area increased. It is recommended to wait and see [5] Pulp - The pulp futures rose slightly. The spot prices remained stable. As of July 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China decreased compared with the previous period. The pulp import in June was still high year - on - year. The supply of pulp was relatively loose, the demand was weak, and it was in the traditional off - season. The pulp valuation was low, and domestic counter - subsidies boosted sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price rebounded sharply, and the spot price remained stable. The main reason for the rebound was that the spot price was at a historical low with limited downward space. The port arrival volume and inventory were low, and the spot price was expected to rise. The demand was in the off - season, and the inventory was low. The supply was expected to be favorable, but the price lacked the power to continue rebounding. It is recommended to wait and see [7]
中美免战三月期限将至,美财长访华:不必担心,美国有中国想要的
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-17 07:44
前言: 此前,中美在日内瓦会谈中定下了关于关税的90天期限。 现如今, "免战牌"仅剩一个多月。 时至今日,中美依旧未能在关税层面达成完全一致。 这也导致美国国内再次升腾起一阵不安。 对此美财长贝森特却表示: 不必担心,两国谈判正处于非常好的阶段,且美国有中国想要的东西。 可事 实真是如此嘛? 贝森特的话里又藏着什么玄机? 贝森特言外之意就是, 虽然期限将至,可不用多想。 因为中美会谈情况良好,且中国需要从美国得到某种东西。 可明眼人都明白,我国稀土管制早已压得美国喘不过气来。 至于贝森特所言, 很可能就是自我安慰。 不过随后贝森特就表示, 美国已经允许英特尔向中国出口H20芯片。 并表示,这是此前中美之间谈好的。 而芯片正是中国被美国卡脖子的项目之一。 这样说来,贝森特的话也不无道理。 只是,美国此次松口 绝对不是履行谈判承诺那么简单。 因为美国对于芯片的管制,我国加大芯片领域研究。 目前, 我国已经在芯片上取得突破。 所以贝森特口中的H20芯片对我国的意义已经不大。 换句话说,就是美国履不履行承诺,都无所谓了。 既然如此,贝森特的话又显得毫无意义。 那么他的 用意究竟是什么呢? 他深知,中国已经取得突破, ...