中美贸易谈判
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液化石油气日报:现货涨跌互现,盘面窄幅震荡-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 05:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] Core View - The rebound of the crude oil end faces resistance, and the LPG market has insufficient upward drive, with the market entering a narrow - range oscillation state. The domestic civil gas prices showed a mixed trend of rises and falls yesterday. The LPG supply - demand pattern remains loose, especially with continuous growth in overseas supply. Considering the macro uncertainties, short - term caution is advised, and waiting for the results of Sino - US trade negotiations is recommended [1] Market Analysis - On October 28, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4150 - 4270; Northeast market, 3630 - 4030; North China market, 4100 - 4350; East China market, 4150 - 4310; Yangtze River market, 4550 - 4790; Northwest market, 4150 - 4200; South China market, 4250 - 4480 [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 541 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton, and butane was 542 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4220 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, and butane was 4228 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 535 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton, and butane was 536 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4173 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, and butane was 4181 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [1] - The mainstream transaction prices of civil gas and ether - post carbon four in Shandong decreased, but the downstream purchasing willingness increased after the price decline, the market sentiment stabilized, and the trading atmosphere improved [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and observing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]
沪指再冲4000点 中证A500ETF(159338)净流入超1.6亿份 关注同类中更多人选择的中证A500ETF
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-29 04:59
Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has once again surpassed the 4000-point mark, with the CSI A500 ETF (159338) seeing a net inflow of 165 million units, indicating a more balanced capital influx into broad-based indices [1] - The recent "14th Five-Year Plan" report has positively set the tone to boost confidence, emphasizing the focus on economic development and accelerating the construction of a unified national market, which provides solid support for the medium to long-term outlook of the A-share market [1] - As US-China trade negotiations progress and expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts strengthen, overseas disruptive factors are gradually diminishing, allowing the A-share market to refocus on domestic narratives [1] Group 2 - In terms of customer numbers, the Guotai CSI A500 ETF ranks first in its category, with total accounts being more than three times that of the second-ranked competitor, indicating a growing preference among investors for the CSI A500 ETF (159338) [1]
国新国证期货早报-20251029
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 02:18
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On October 28, 2025, the A-share market and various futures markets showed different trends. The A-share market had a slight decline, while different futures varieties were affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policy, and international market trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On October 28, A-share major indices declined slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 0.22% to 3988.22, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.44% to 13430.10, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.15% to 3229.58. The trading volume of the two markets was 2147.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 192.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index encountered resistance and fluctuated on October 28, closing at 4691.97, a decrease of 24.05 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 28, the weighted index of coke fluctuated weakly, closing at 1772.0, a decrease of 16.2 [3]. - On October 28, the weighted index of coking coal was weak, closing at 1256.1 yuan, a decrease of 8.5 [4]. - The second round of coke price increase was fully implemented, but the weakening steel demand and potential negative feedback risk will restrict the short - term rebound of coal and coke prices. The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, and the spot market shows a tight supply pattern [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The expectation of increased global sugar supply put pressure on the futures price. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated and rose on October 28 due to short - covering, and oscillated and sorted at night [5]. Rubber - Due to the expected decrease in US auto sales in October, the Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on October 28, and fluctuated slightly at night. The total inventory in Qingdao Port decreased last week [6]. Soybean Meal - On October 28, CBOT soybean futures oscillated strongly. Sino - US soybean trade is expected to resume. The US soybean harvest progress is normal, and the Brazilian soybean planting starts well. The domestic soybean meal inventory increased, and there is still inventory pressure [7]. Live Pigs - On October 28, live pig futures oscillated strongly. The widening price difference between standard and fat pigs attracted second - round fattening, and the terminal demand improved marginally, but the supply - exceeding - demand pattern remained unchanged, and the price rebound space was limited [8]. Palm Oil - On October 28, palm oil prices continued to decline, breaking through the 9000 mark. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly in August, and its production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025 [9]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract 2512 first rose and then declined on October 28. The downstream demand was weak, but the supply disturbances and low inventory provided long - term support. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13575 yuan/ton at night on October 28, and the inventory decreased by 17 lots [10]. Logs - The 2601 log contract on October 28 had an opening price of 789, a lowest price of 785, a highest price of 791.5, and a closing price of 786, with an increase of 28 lots in positions. The market has good expectations for Sino - US trade negotiations, and shipping prices have fallen. The spot market prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [10][12]. Iron Ore - On October 28, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and rose, with a gain of 1.93% and a closing price of 792.5 yuan. The iron ore shipping volume rebounded slightly, the domestic arrival volume decreased significantly, and the iron ore price will oscillate in the short term [12]. Asphalt - On October 28, the asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.79% and a closing price of 3279 yuan. The asphalt supply decreased, the inventory continued to decline, and the price will oscillate in the short term following the cost of crude oil [12].
时隔十年,上证指数再上4000点
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-10-28 09:07
Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 4000 points before retreating, closing at 4005 points with a gain of 0.21% [1] - The three major A-share indices experienced a decline in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Index down 0.22%, Shenzhen Component down 0.44%, and ChiNext down 0.15% [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion, a decrease of 192.3 billion compared to the previous trading day, with over 2900 stocks declining [4] Sector Performance - The Fujian sector continued to perform strongly, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, including Haixia Innovation and Fujian Cement [3] - The military industry stocks surged, with companies like Jianglong Shipbuilding and Great Wall Military Industry seeing significant gains [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector faced widespread declines, particularly in gold, rare earths, and cobalt mining [3] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the biopharmaceutical, cultural media, and software development sectors, while outflows were noted in semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and communication equipment [6] - Specific stocks such as N He Yuan-U and N Yi Cai-U saw net inflows of 1.775 billion and 1.291 billion respectively, while Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt experienced significant outflows [6] Market Outlook - Industry insiders predict a likely continuation of a slow bull market until the end of the year, supported by progress in US-China trade negotiations and favorable regulatory policies [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system to attract foreign investment, enhancing transparency and efficiency [8] - Analysts suggest that the breakthrough of 4000 points reflects improved market sentiment and investor confidence, with a potential for further capital inflow if the index stabilizes above this level [9] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to remain rational and focus on companies with strong fundamentals, avoiding blind chasing of high prices [9] - The technology sector is expected to continue its momentum, while pharmaceuticals and consumer goods are seen as key areas for long-term investment [10]
液化石油气日报:现货端表现乏力,市场驱动有限-20251028
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:36
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] Group 2: Core View - The spot market of LPG is weak and has limited market drivers. Although the LPG market has been somewhat boosted by the sharp rebound in crude oil prices, the elasticity is limited and the spot reaction is relatively flat. The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, with continuous growth in overseas supply, high exports from the Middle East and North America, and ample imported resources, which suppress the domestic market. However, the shrinking price difference between LPG and naphtha will stimulate the switching of raw materials from naphtha to LPG in cracking units. There are many short - term macro uncertainties, and the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations is awaited [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - On October 27, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4200 - 4270 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3780 - 4060 yuan/ton; North China market 4150 - 4350 yuan/ton; East China market 4150 - 4260 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4520 - 4760 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4100 - 4180 yuan/ton; South China market 4250 - 4480 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 540 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 540 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4214 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4214 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 534 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 534 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4167 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4167 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton [1] - Recently, domestic civil gas prices have been stable with a slight decline, and downstream customers purchase as needed [1]
原木数据日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 06:58
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Log Data Daily Report" and is from the Guomao Futures Research Institute, dated October 28, 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The log fundamentals are weakening due to ample supply and the demand entering the off - season. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu have been lowered, and the expected increase in the outer market has been weakened by Sino - US trade negotiations, leading to a sharp decline in the futures market. It is not recommended to continue short - selling on the 01 contract in the short term as the current 01 contract price is lower than the spot delivery cost. Short - selling after a rebound can be considered later [5] Group 4: Price Information Spot and Futures Prices - In Shandong, for radiation pine, 3.9m medium A has a spot price of 760 yuan and a futures price of 820 yuan; 5.9m medium A has a spot price of 800 yuan and a futures price of 860 yuan; 3.9m small A has a spot price of 720 yuan and a futures price of 790 yuan; 5.9m small A has a spot price of 760 yuan and a futures price of 830 yuan. In Jiangsu, for radiation pine, 4m medium A has a spot price of 770 yuan and a futures price of 830 yuan; 6m medium A has a spot price of 800 yuan and a futures price of 860 yuan; 4m small A has a spot price of 720 yuan and a futures price of 790 yuan; 6m small A has a spot price of 750 yuan and a futures price of 810 yuan [5] Outer - Market and Futures Price Changes - The outer - market quotation for 4m medium A radiation pine changed from 113 - 115 dollars/JAS cubic meter in September to 115 - 117 dollars/JAS cubic meter in October, an increase of 2. The LG2511 futures price dropped from 796.5 yuan/cubic meter to 763 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 33.5. The LG2601 futures price dropped from 829.5 yuan/cubic meter to 796.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 33 [5] Downstream Wood Square Prices - In Shandong and Jiangsu, the price of wood squares (4000*50*100) remained unchanged at 1270 yuan [5] Group 5: Supply Information Import Volume - In September 2025, the import volume of New Zealand logs was 149.93 million cubic meters (compared to 130.6 million cubic meters in August), North American logs was 10.6 million cubic meters (compared to 10.1 million cubic meters in August), and European logs was 16.61 million cubic meters (compared to 14.8 million cubic meters in August). From October 11 - 17 to October 18 - 24, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China increased from 26 million JAS cubic meters to 31 million JAS cubic meters [5] Group 6: Inventory Information Total Inventory - The total inventory on October 17 was 292 million cubic meters, down from 299 million cubic meters on October 10. Shandong's inventory on October 17 was 184 million cubic meters, down from 189 million cubic meters on October 10. Jiangsu's inventory on October 17 was 88.7 million cubic meters, up slightly from 88 million cubic meters on October 10 [5] Daily Average Out - Bound Volume - The daily average out - bound volume on October 17 was 6.32 million cubic meters, up from 5.73 million cubic meters on October 10. Shandong's out - bound volume on October 17 was 3.42 million cubic meters, down slightly from 3.44 million cubic meters on October 10. Jiangsu's out - bound volume on October 17 was 2.42 million cubic meters, up from 1.79 million cubic meters on October 10 [5]
沪指盘中突破4000点,中证A500ETF(159338)净流入近6000万份,关注同类中更多人选择的中证A500ETF
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-28 06:52
Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 4000-point mark, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by various factors [1] - The China Securities A500 ETF (159338) has seen a net inflow of 57 million units, reflecting a balanced capital influx into broader market indices [1] - With the ongoing US-China trade negotiations and strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, external market disturbances are diminishing, allowing A-shares to refocus on domestic narratives [1] Market Dynamics - The recent "14th Five-Year Plan" report has positively set the tone for market confidence, emphasizing the importance of economic development and accelerating the construction of a unified national market [1] - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to validate market performance, potentially leading to a dual-driven market rally from both policy and earnings [1] Investment Trends - According to the 2025 mid-year report, the total number of accounts for the Guotai China Securities A500 ETF is three times that of the second-ranked product in its category, indicating a strong preference among investors [1] - Investors interested in the China Securities A500 ETF (159338) may find it a compelling option given its leading position in the market [1]
大越期货豆粕早报-20251028
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 05:15
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2960 - 3020. The US soybean market is affected by trade negotiations and weather, while the domestic soybean meal market is influenced by factors such as imported soybean arrivals and spot - price discounts [9]. - The soybean A2601 is predicted to fluctuate between 4040 - 4140. The domestic soybean market is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, but is also pressured by factors like Brazilian soybean production and domestic soybean yield expectations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2601 is in a neutral position in terms of fundamentals, with a bearish sentiment in basis, a bullish sentiment in inventory, a neutral sentiment in the market trend, and a bearish sentiment in the main - position and expected trends [9]. - The soybean A2601 is neutral in fundamentals, neutral in basis, bearish in inventory, bullish in the market trend, bearish in the main - position, and has a complex expected trend affected by multiple factors [11]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The domestic imported soybean arrivals in October remain high, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened, but the market is still in an oscillating pattern due to uncertainties [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal** - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high - yield of US soybeans [14]. - Current main logic: focus on US soybean harvest weather and Sino - US trade tariff game [14]. - **Soybeans** - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement, and the expected increase in domestic soybean yield [15]. - Current main logic: focus on US soybean weather and Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread** - The soybean meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, while the spot price is relatively stable, with a small - fluctuating spot discount [23]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level [29]. - **Inventory and Production** - The inventory of oil - mill soybeans remains high, and the soybean meal inventory has declined from the high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal production in August increased year - on - year [47][51]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from the high level, and the demand for off - season stockpiling has decreased [49]. - **Supply and Demand Balance** - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance tables show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory over the years [32][33]. - **Sowing and Harvest Progress** - The sowing and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different years are presented, including the sowing rate, harvest rate, and other data [34][35][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Reports** - The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months show the changes in planting area, yield, production, and other data of soybeans [43]. 5. Position Data - There is no specific content in the given text related to summarizing position data, so this part is skipped.
期货市场交易指引:2025年10月28日-20251028
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 02:57
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Bullish on the medium - to - long - term for stock indices, hold a neutral stance on treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral for coking coal, coke, and rebar; bearish on glass [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Bullish on copper in the medium - to - long - term with a neutral short - term view; neutral on aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver [1][10][12][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; bearish on soda ash; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins [1][20][22][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral and slightly bullish for cotton, cotton yarn, and apples; neutral for PTA and jujubes [1][35][36][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on live pigs and eggs; neutral and slightly bearish on corn; bullish on soybean meal rebound; neutral and slightly bullish on oils and fats with a differentiation in variety trends [1][39][44][46] Core Views - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities [1][5][7] Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term and is bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Investors are advised to buy on dips. The market is affected by factors like policy optimization, international trade talks, and Fed rate - cut expectations [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to oscillate slightly upwards. Influenced by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations, regulatory policies, and central bank operations [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: The market is bullish with a significant upward price trend, mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream coking coal prices and short - term supply shortages [7] - **Rebar**: The price is expected to oscillate. With low static valuation and factors like the "15th Five - Year Plan" and improved demand, it is advisable to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The market is expected to be weak with a tendency to fall. It is recommended to sell call options for the 01 contract due to factors such as policy expectations cooling, supply - demand imbalance, and cost - profit changes [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the short - term. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips due to supply shortages, positive trade expectations, and weakening of the US dollar [10] - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized, and pay attention to tariff progress and market sentiment [12] - **Nickel**: The market is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies due to potential changes in supply and demand [16] - **Tin**: The market is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the operating range of the Shanghai tin 12 - contract at 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Silver and Gold**: The prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the operating ranges of the Shanghai silver 12 - contract at 10,900 - 11,700 and the Shanghai gold 12 - contract at 920 - 970 respectively [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is temporarily focused on the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain exports [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily focused on the pressure at the 2,450 - yuan/ton level. Influenced by supply - demand relationships and macro - policies [22][23] - **Styrene**: The market is expected to oscillate. It is temporarily focused on the range of 6,300 - 6,700 yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory [24][25] - **Rubber**: The market is expected to oscillate. It is temporarily focused on the support at the 15,000 - yuan/ton level. Supported by raw material prices and inventory reduction, but downstream procurement is cautious [25] - **Urea**: The market is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is referred to the range of 1,600 - 1,700 yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, agricultural demand, and inventory changes [26][27] - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is referred to the operating range of 2,230 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and downstream demand [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. The PE and PP main contracts are recommended to pay attention to the support at 7,000 and 6,600 yuan/ton respectively, and it is advisable to go short on rallies [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: A bearish strategy is recommended for the 01 contract due to supply surplus and inventory accumulation [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards, influenced by factors such as global supply - demand forecasts and Sino - US trade negotiations [35] - **PTA**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory accumulation [35][36] - **Apples**: The market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards. The price of high - quality goods remains stable, and the overall price is affected by factors such as quality and expected delivery costs [36] - **Jujubes**: The market is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to price changes after the new - season harvest is concentrated on the market [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The price rebound is under pressure. A bearish strategy is recommended for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts in the medium - term. Be cautious when bottom - fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [39][40] - **Eggs**: The price rebound is under pressure. For the 12 - contract, short on rallies if the spot price increase is limited; wait and see for the 01 contract [41][42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended for the main 11 - contract. Pay attention to the 2,120 - 2,150 pressure level and the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is expected to rebound from a low level. For the M2601 contract, take partial profit on rallies and hold on to positions on dips. Spot enterprises can set prices on dips for the 11 - 1 month basis and sell on rallies [45][46] - **Oils and Fats**: The market shows a differentiation with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the spread rebound strategy between soybean and palm oils [46][50][51]
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251028
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 01:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is influenced by Sino - US trade negotiations. The market trading sentiment has returned to rationality. The short - term cost - push logic has replaced the supply logic, and the soybean meal futures price shows an oscillatingly strong trend. There is no clear trend direction in the short - term, and it will run oscillatingly [5][6]. - The palm oil market is affected by the weak international oil market. The core contradiction lies in the significant inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil and the weak domestic demand. The short - term futures price is oscillatingly weak and is testing the support of the previous low [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term (within a week): oscillating; Medium - term (two weeks to one month): oscillating; Intraday: oscillatingly strong; Reference view: oscillatingly strong [5]. - **Core Logic**: With the initial consensus of Sino - US trade negotiations, the market focuses on China's soybean purchase quantity and schedule from the US. The domestic near - end market is under supply pressure and cautious downstream procurement. The far - end market focuses on soybean purchase progress and South American weather. The market expects trade policy adjustment and the boost of the fourth - quarter demand season. The cost - push logic has replaced the supply logic in the short - term [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillatingly weak; Reference view: oscillatingly weak [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The weak international oil market has intensified the bearish sentiment in the domestic palm oil market. Although the rebound of CBOT soybean oil and the rise of crude oil prices provide some support, they cannot offset the negative impact of supply pressure. The core contradiction is the significant inventory pressure in Malaysia and weak domestic demand [7].