Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] 2) Core View The peak - season demand for lead is not obvious, and the supply - demand pattern has been generally weak. This pattern may not change significantly in September. Under the background of the Fed's interest rate cut, lead prices may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. It is recommended to sell high and buy low between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On September 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$48.13/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price dropped by 75 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. Lead prices in different regions and prices of related products like lead scrap also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Futures**: On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,895 yuan/ton and closed at 16,795 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 45,315 lots, an increase of 14,839 lots. The position was 50,467 lots, an increase of 766 lots. During the night session, it closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close. The lead market had weak supply and demand, with weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm and light trading [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 10, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from last week. As of September 11, the LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, a decrease of 2,325 tons from the previous trading day [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Maintain a neutral view. Due to the unclear peak - season demand and the supply - demand pattern that is difficult to change in September, but with the Fed's interest rate cut, the lead price may be volatile and slightly stronger. It is recommended to trade within the range of 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Suspend operations [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report - Report Date: September 10, 2025 - Report Industry: Steel and Iron Ore 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price is weakly oscillating with a daily decline of 0.73%. In the current supply-demand weakness, the fundamentals are weak, and industrial contradictions are accumulating. With the relatively favorable peak-season expectation and rising costs, the steel price is expected to continue the low-level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The main contract price is oscillating with a daily decline of 0.39%. In the current supply-demand weakness, industrial contradictions are accumulating limitedly, and the fundamentals are relatively good. With less delivery pressure, the short-term trend of hot-rolled coil is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the demand change [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price is oscillating at a high level with a daily increase of 0.25%. In the current supply-demand weakness, the fundamentals of iron ore are running smoothly. The holiday restocking expectation and supply disruptions support the ore price to continue the strong trend. However, the relatively negative factor is the high valuation, and the upside space is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **CPI and PPI**: In August 2025, the core CPI continued to rise, and the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed. The CPI was flat month-on-month and decreased by 0.4% year-on-year. The core CPI increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI was flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month [6]. - **Real Estate Sales**: According to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 16 key real estate enterprises from January to August 2025 were 868.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. The sales in August were 106.451 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% and a month-on-month increase of 20.2%. Only China Jinmao had a year-on-year increase in sales from January to August, with a growth rate of 25.7%. Other 15 enterprises had year-on-year decreases, and the largest decline was from Seazen Holdings, with a decrease of 54.1% [7]. - **Project Commencement**: In August 2025, 397 projects started across the country. The top three provinces in terms of commencement investment were Jilin, Guangxi, and Zhejiang, with total investments of 64.73 billion yuan, 30.37 billion yuan, and 27.7 billion yuan respectively [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The national average prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot-rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) were 3,283 yuan and 3,438 yuan respectively, with decreases of 4 yuan and 6 yuan compared with the previous day. The price of Tangshan billet (Q235) was 3,000 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,080 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The coil-rebar price difference was 180 yuan, and the rebar-scrap price difference was 1,120 yuan, with a decrease of 10 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 798 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan compared with the previous day. The price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 800 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan compared with the previous day. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 10.53 yuan and 23.91 yuan respectively, with increases of 0.44 yuan and 0.16 yuan compared with the previous day. The SGX swap (current month) was 106.75 yuan, an increase of 1.50 yuan compared with the previous day. The Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 107.65 yuan, an increase of 1.95 yuan compared with the previous day [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,109 | -0.73 | 3,126 | 3,092 | 1,264,549 | -64,810 | 1,867,674 | 88,845 | | Hot-rolled Coil | 3,342 | -0.39 | 3,355 | 3,316 | 446,058 | -68,834 | 1,313,659 | 6,895 | | Iron Ore | 805.0 | 0.25 | 809.0 | 796.0 | 334,534 | -159,592 | 544,566 | 3,366 | [11] 3.4 Related Charts The report provides charts on steel inventory (rebar, hot-rolled coil), iron ore inventory (national 45-port, 247 steel mills, domestic mines), and steel mill production (247 sample steel mills' blast furnace开工率 and capacity utilization, 87 independent electric furnace开工率, 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit and loss situation) [13][18][27]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply-demand pattern has little change. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and the weekly output of rebar has decreased by 1.88 tons. The demand is weak, and the peak-season demand is in doubt. The steel price is expected to continue the low-level oscillating trend [34]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. The production of steel mills is restricted during the military parade, and the weekly output has decreased by 10.50 tons. The demand is also weakening, and the demand toughness is weakening. The short-term trend is relatively strong [34]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply-demand pattern has changed. The terminal consumption of ore has decreased significantly due to production restrictions. The supply is expected to increase steadily. The ore price is supported by restocking expectations and supply disruptions, but the upside space is cautiously optimistic [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal market showed mixed trends, with improved trading volume and market sentiment. The market presented a situation of weak supply and demand due to environmental policies affecting downstream demand and safety inspections limiting supply. The eighth round of coke price increase was not accepted by downstream steel mills, resulting in a short - term stable market under the game between coke and steel producers [2][5]. - In the short term, the futures market has support as both supply and demand are contracting. Attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mine supply after the parade [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal market had mixed price movements this week, with better trading volume and improved market sentiment. Environmental policies led to production restriction expectations in downstream steel mills and coking plants, affecting coking coal demand. Mine safety inspections and "over - production checks" limited supply, creating a situation of weak supply and demand. The eighth round of coke price increase was rejected by steel mills, and the market remained stable in the short term [2][5]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, with measures to support the construction of world - class city clusters and enhance urban development [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports [7]. - From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 3.3159 trillion yuan, including 538.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 2.7776 trillion yuan of special bonds [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [7]. - In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.115 million tons (a 2.0% daily increase). Estimated national daily crude steel output was 2.68 million tons (a 0.1% increase) [8]. - As of the week ending August 27, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.0%, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week [8]. - Recently, many small and medium - sized banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates by 10 - 20 basis points [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the production side, some coal mines had production stoppages or reductions due to internal reasons, while most maintained normal production. The market pricing logic is gradually returning to fundamental factors. Due to weakened downstream demand and slower procurement, the trading activity of coal washing plants and traders has declined [2]. - On the demand side, the seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce due to profit support, showing a structure of "high production, weak inventory reduction, and strong expectations." However, the pressure of steel inventory accumulation and potential production restriction policies will limit the upward space of coke prices [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Some coal mines have limited production due to accidents and other factors. With continuous safety inspections before the parade and some spontaneous production stoppages, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [30]. - Demand: Coke production has slightly declined in some areas under production restrictions. Coke enterprises maintain a demand - based procurement strategy, and overall coal mine transactions are average, but most coal mines do not have obvious inventory pressure [30]. - Investment Strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; and for coking profit, also wait and see [2][30].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows a mixed performance, with asphalt futures experiencing a slight increase amid various supply and demand factors affecting the market [1] Supply Side - Hebei Xinhai plans to increase asphalt production by the end of the month, but Zhenhai Refining may temporarily halt asphalt production, and some local refineries in Shandong, such as Shengxing Petrochemical, may switch to producing residual oil, leading to a decrease in asphalt plant operating rates [1] Demand Side - In North China, terminal demand is weak due to rainfall, while demand in East China and southern regions has improved due to road construction by Shandong Expressway, resulting in price declines in North and East China, while South China sees a slight increase [1] Market Outlook - According to Guantong Futures, southern main refineries are operating at low capacity this week, with reduced rainfall in East China but more rainfall in northern regions. Additionally, market caution due to funding constraints is impacting asphalt demand. The recent rise and fall of crude oil prices have weakened cost support for asphalt, leading to a weak supply and demand scenario, resulting in fluctuating asphalt futures [1]

Report Summary - The report is an asphalt weekly report from AVIC Futures dated August 22, 2025 [2] - The main view is that this week, the asphalt fundamentals continued the characteristics of weak supply and demand. The supply - side weekly output and operating rate decreased, and the demand - side shipment volume decreased slightly. The refinery inventory still showed a slight accumulation, while the social inventory decreased. The crude oil price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the asphalt price is dominated by crude oil fluctuations. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes [6][62] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the range of 3450 - 3600 yuan/ton for the BU2510 contract [6] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt include low refinery inventory and marginal macro - improvement [9] - Bearish factors include lower - than - expected demand and insufficient upward drive on the cost side [9] Macroeconomic Analysis - The results of the meetings between the US and Russia, and the US and European countries basically met market expectations, and geopolitical risks weakened. However, the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations still needs to be tracked [10] - The risk of "secondary tariffs" has subsided. Trump said he would not impose secondary tariffs on China for the time being, and India decided to continue buying Russian oil [11] Data Analysis Supply - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 548,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from last week. Some refineries in Shandong switched to producing residual oil, and some refineries in East China had intermittent shutdowns [12] - As of August 20, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 30.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The operating rates in East China and Shandong decreased significantly [22] Demand - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 391,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week. The demand weakened due to rainfall [23] - As of August 22, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 16.99%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from last week. Except for Southwest and South China, the capacity utilization rates in other regions remained stable [26] Import and Export - In July, domestic asphalt imports were 380,500 tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 16.53%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 2.1055 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.5% [31] - In July, domestic asphalt exports were 55,700 tons, an increase of 26,200 tons from the previous month. The cumulative exports from January to July were 334,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 46.45% [36] Inventory - As of August 22, the refinery inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 716,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week. The refinery shipments were poor due to the impact of rainfall on demand [46] - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.292 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous week. The decrease was due to weak downstream demand and reduced refinery output [53] Spread - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt processing diluted weekly profit was - 474.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.3 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 20, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 54.97, and as of August 21, the asphalt basis was 255 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread remained stable [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View Copper - In the short - term, copper prices are expected to range - bound between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Macro factors like US economic data and tariff policies, along with fundamental supply - demand and inventory conditions, will influence the price. The market is in a state of short - term supply - demand weakness during the off - season, but "tight mining end + demand resilience" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton this week. The market will experience a game between short - term supply disturbances and over - capacity. Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors include supply and demand fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,400 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as tight scrap aluminum supply and weak terminal demand [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Upward rebound requires continuous inventory reduction and improved interest - rate cut expectations without overseas economic recession. Downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and refined zinc inventory accumulation. The current supply - demand situation provides limited support for continuous price increase, but low inventory provides price support [9]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate. Supply is currently tight, and demand is expected to be weak [12]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward price space [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract operating range of 13,000 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Cost support is strengthening, but the weak spot demand restricts the fundamentals [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely in a relatively strong range, around 85,000 yuan/ton. The market is affected by short - term news, and the fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider light - position long - entry at low prices [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 79,435 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.05%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 53.62 yuan/ton to 65TT yuan/ton, a decline of 4.54%. The import profit and loss increased by 119.85 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamentals - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74% [1]. - The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 9.80 million tons to 61.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.79% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 20,710 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.24%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamentals - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.4 million tons to 58.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.26% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamentals - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.22%. The import profit and loss increased by 80.61 yuan/ton to - 1,813 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamentals - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97% [9]. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 1.60 million tons to 12.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.13% [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 269,500 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.26%. The import profit and loss decreased by 717.98 yuan/ton to - 16,507.39 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamentals - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94% [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.36%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamentals - China's refined nickel production in the reference period decreased by 3,220 tons to 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume increased by 10,325 tons to 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.38%. The 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamentals - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) decreased by 6.83 million tons to 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83% [16]. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.50 million tons to 49.65 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.23%. The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamentals - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62% [19]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory in July decreased by 2,012 tons to 97,846 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar weakened again, with a daily decline of 0.92% and an increase in volume and open interest. Supply disturbances support the strong upward movement of raw materials, driving up steel prices due to increased costs. However, in the context of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and the upward driving force is also not strong. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.66% and a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, in the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil continue to weaken, inventory increases and the increase expands. Under the weak reality, the hot-rolled coil price continues to be under pressure, but the strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level, with a daily decline of 0%, a decrease in volume, and an increase in open interest. At present, the demand for iron ore is weakening, and the supply recovery is also lower than expected. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are operating stably. However, the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the demand resilience is acceptable, which continues to support the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high-level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The focus of fiscal and financial policies will be shifted more towards benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption. The personal consumer loan fiscal discount policy and the service industry business entity loan discount policy will respectively focus on the demand and supply sides of consumption, aiming to achieve a virtuous cycle at both ends of supply and demand [6]. - In July this year, global new ship orders were "halved", but Chinese shipbuilding enterprises still ranked first in the industry. Although affected by factors such as US policies and market fluctuations, the order volume of Chinese shipbuilding enterprises decreased year-on-year, but their market share and leading position in the global shipbuilding industry are still significant [7]. - Australia postponed the release of the basic facts report and final ruling recommendations for the sunset review of anti-dumping on steel bars imported from China. The Australian Anti-Dumping Commission is expected to complete the basic facts report of this investigation no later than December 10, 2025, and submit the final ruling report to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science no later than February 9, 2026 [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and other products in different regions and the national average prices are provided, along with their price changes. For example, the Shanghai price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) is 3,330 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Shanghai price of hot-rolled coil (4.75mm) is 3,470 yuan, down 40 yuan [9]. - The prices of iron ore-related products such as 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, and the freight rates from Australia and Brazil are also given, along with their price changes [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore futures are presented. For example, the closing price of rebar futures is 3,222 yuan, with a decline of 0.92%, a trading volume of 1,236,428 lots, and an open interest of 1,652,593 lots [11]. Relevant Charts - The charts show the inventory changes of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, including weekly changes, total inventory (steel mill + social inventory), and the inventory of 45 ports in China. They also display the production situation of steel mills, such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and the operating rate of independent electric furnaces [13][18][28]. Future Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply and demand pattern continues to weaken, and the inventory increase expands. Although the production reduction of hot-rolled coil due to plate mill maintenance has a certain positive effect, the sustainability of production reduction needs to be tracked. The demand for rebar has improved, but the sustainability of the off-season demand improvement is questionable. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Hot-rolled coil: Both supply and demand have increased. The production of rebar has increased, and the demand has also improved, but the downstream industry has not improved, and the sustainability of the demand improvement is uncertain. The fundamentals of hot-rolled coil continue to weaken, and the price is under pressure, but there is also resistance to decline. It is expected that the trend will continue to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - Iron ore: The supply and demand pattern has not changed much. The production of steel mills is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously falling, but the profit situation of steel mills is still good, which supports the ore price. The arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has declined again, and the supply is weak. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high-level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, with prices fluctuating due to macroeconomic sentiments. The main contract rose by 0.84% to 270,200 yuan/ton, but the overall market remains subdued due to low demand and tight supply conditions [1][2]. - Tin ore supply has not yet recovered, maintaining a tight domestic supply situation. Although there are expectations for supply recovery as Myanmar's tin mines resume production, actual output is delayed until the fourth quarter due to various factors [1][2]. - The downstream consumption is entering a low season, leading to weak demand performance. Orders in the home appliance sector are insufficient, and there is a significant decline in photovoltaic orders compared to the previous month, contributing to the overall weak demand [1][2]. Group 2 - The commentary from Jinrui Futures highlights that the raw material supply at domestic smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi is tight, with low operating rates. The demand side remains sluggish, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, and the overall terminal demand is weak [2]. - The current fundamental changes are limited, with a slight surplus in supply-demand balance observed in August. However, the magnitude is small, and uncertainties in the supply side, along with strong overseas demand, provide some support, suggesting a continuation of the oscillating market pattern in the short term [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The PX and PTA markets are under pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory build - up, and are expected to continue their weak trend. The polyester industry chain is in a weak supply - demand pattern and may maintain a weak and volatile short - term performance [2][5]. - Future prices of PX and PTA may continue to face downward pressure, with supply - side开工率 remaining stable or high, cost support weakening due to falling crude oil prices, demand being dragged down by the possible weakening of polyester demand, and inventory likely to accumulate [37]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On August 8, the PX main contract closed at 6726.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 9.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4684.0 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6.0 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 66.41 US dollars/barrel, and the WTI was 63.82 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 479.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction volume was 486.27 million meters [3]. - In terms of supply, the short - term supply pressure of PX and PTA has increased marginally. The continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a significant collapse in PX cost support. Although the PX plant maintenance plan has not been implemented, PX enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain a high operating rate. For PTA, the restart plan of plants in August has increased, and the operating rate may remain high, with an increasing expectation of short - term supply relaxation [3]. - In terms of demand, polyester and terminal demand show seasonal weakness. The average transaction volume of the Light Textile City in the past 15 days is 486.27 million meters, and the recent transaction volume has further declined to 479 million meters, indicating that terminal textile orders have not improved substantially. The polyester operating rate may fluctuate narrowly between 84% - 86% and is difficult to drive PTA demand beyond expectations [4]. - In terms of inventory, PTA factory inventory has the risk of passive accumulation. The PTA supply - demand balance has changed from tight to loose in August, and the destocking cycle may end. If demand remains weak and new PTA plants are put into production as expected, social inventory may return to the inventory build - up channel, and the spot basis will continue to be at a discount, suppressing the elasticity of futures prices [4]. Polyester - On August 8, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6382.0 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6490.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 108.0 yuan/ton [5]. - The polyester industry chain shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream raw material supply is abundant or the cost support is weakening. The terminal textile demand has weakened marginally. The inventory days of polyester filament POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased and are higher than the five - year average, and the overall inventory pressure is large. In the short term, the polyester industry chain may maintain a weak and volatile operation [5]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.44% to 6.726 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 25.72% to 64,578 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.12% to 91,057 lots. The CFR price of the Chinese main port remained unchanged at 839.67 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 1.10% to 806 US dollars/ton. The PX basis increased by 142.86% to 9 yuan/ton [6]. - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.09% to 4,684 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 16.74% to 347,274 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.40% to 700,930 lots. The CFR price of the Chinese main port decreased by 0.96% to 622 US dollars/ton. The PTA basis increased by 200.00% to 6 yuan/ton [6]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.16% to 6,382 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 4.03% to 109,840 lots, and the open interest increased by 2.40% to 178,205 lots. The mainstream spot price in the East China market remained unchanged at 6,490 yuan/ton. The PF basis increased by 10.20% to 108 yuan/ton [6]. - Other prices: The Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 0.14% to 66.32 US dollars/barrel, the US crude oil main contract decreased by 0.74% to 63.35 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR price of naphtha in Japan decreased by 0.09% to 570.5 US dollars/ton [6]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 8, Trump nominated Stephen Milan as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, Waller became a hot candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, the US Treasury Secretary started the interview process for the Federal Reserve Chairman, and Bostic said that the July employment report changed the Federal Reserve's view on employment goals. The central bank increased its gold reserves for the 9th consecutive month, and the gold reserve at the end of July was 73.96 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces. The People's Bank of China carried out a 700 - billion - yuan repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [8]. - On August 7, Trump said that the new Federal Reserve Board member might be temporary and would announce the appointment within 2 - 3 days, and also said that if other countries imported Russian crude oil, they might be imposed a 25% tariff. Kashkari of the Federal Reserve said that it might be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term, and two interest rate cuts this year were reasonable [8]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On August 8, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 479.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.97%, with the long - fiber fabric transaction volume at 394.0 million meters and the short - fiber fabric transaction volume at 86.0 million meters [9]. 4. Appendix: Big Model Reasoning Process - Analyze from the supply, demand, and inventory perspectives. On the supply side, the operating rates of PX and PTA may remain stable or high, and the falling crude oil prices lead to weakened cost support. On the demand side, the slightly decreased transaction volume of the Light Textile City may indicate weakening polyester demand, which in turn drags down PTA demand. On the inventory side, inventory may accumulate due to the supply - demand relationship [35][36][37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The polyolefin market is gradually shifting to a pattern of strong supply and demand. New production capacities are being released, and maintenance devices are restarting, leading to a significant increase in production. Although social inventories are accumulating, they are still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The start - up rate of agricultural film has improved for three consecutive weeks. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm [4]. - The PP market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream operating rate has remained at around 77% for six consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season. The inventory structure of the upper and middle reaches continues to diverge, with enterprises and traders' inventories accumulating, while downstream maintains low inventories. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm during the peak season [8]. - The propylene market may show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing", and the price trend is more likely to be range - bound. In August, the weak pattern of the propylene market is difficult to change, and the monthly average price is expected to fluctuate around 6350 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic Market - **This Week's Review**: The L2509 contract fluctuated in the range of [7251, 7344], with an opening price of 7312 yuan/ton and a closing price of 7290 yuan/ton. The market followed cost and sentiment for range - bound fluctuations. The far - month L2601 contract was firm [3][16]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Production is expected to increase by 1.5 tons week - on - week. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the past five years. Social inventories are accumulating but are still at a relatively low level. The start - up rate of agricultural film has improved for three consecutive weeks [4]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks. The L2509 contract should focus on the range of [7200 - 7350]. Hold the long LP09 arbitrage. Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [6]. 3.2 PP Market - **This Week's Review**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated in the range of [7047, 7108], with an opening price of 7098 yuan/ton and a closing price of 7062 yuan/ton. The market followed macro - sentiment fluctuations, with significantly reduced volatility and a downward - shifting center of gravity. The fundamentals showed little supply - demand contradiction, with both supply and demand being weak [7][55]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream operating rate has remained at around 77% for six consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season. The inventory structure of the upper and middle reaches continues to diverge [8]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks. The PP2509 contract should focus on the range of [7000 - 7200]. Wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Propylene Market - **This Week's Review**: The PL2601 contract fluctuated in the range of [6416, 6555], with an opening price of 6480 yuan/ton and a closing price of 6451 yuan/ton [10][83]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: A new propylene plant in Ningbo has produced products and plans to export. A large number of propylene shipments may enter the market in the short term, suppressing the US dollar market price. The demand side has seen some improvement in production enthusiasm. The market may show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing", and the price is expected to be range - bound [11]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks at the current low price level. The PL2601 contract should focus on the range of [6300 - 6500]. Hold the long PP - PL01 spread arbitrage [12]. 3.4 Macro Review and Outlook - **This Week's Review**: The overall weekly increase was PVC > polyolefin = commodity > energy - chemical. Coking coal continued its upward trend, and PVC was more affected by the cost - side coal. WTI oil prices fell below the key support level, and the oil - chemical sector was weak [13]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Pay attention to tariff dynamics and domestic anti - involution policy changes [13].