Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, closing higher at the end of the session. PP fluctuated within a range. The spot market had a cautious trading atmosphere, with some factory prices adjusted and low terminal restocking willingness. The supply - side pressure will increase due to the decline in planned maintenance after June and new capacity expansion plans, while demand is pressured by seasonal weakness and tariff transmission. Although the cost side is supported by the US fuel consumption peak season, the rebound space of polyolefins is limited due to existing supply - demand contradictions [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Linear futures (L09) closed at 7078 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.08%), with a trading volume of 25 lots and an increase in open interest by 1429 to 545370 lots. PP closed at 6932 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.09%), with open interest decreasing by 1541 to 516,300 lots. The spot market was cautious, with some factory prices adjusted and low terminal restocking enthusiasm. The supply - side pressure will increase after June due to reduced planned maintenance and new capacity expansion, and demand is affected by seasonality and tariffs. The cost side has some support, but the rebound space of polyolefins is limited [5][6] 3.2 Industry News - On June 9, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 870,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase (4.82%) from the previous working day, compared with 855,000 tons in the same period last year. PP market prices were generally stable with minor fluctuations, and PE market prices showed mixed trends in different regions [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][14][16]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that ethylene glycol will continue its low - level oscillation pattern. While cost support limits the downside price movement, high inventory and weak demand suppress price rebounds. Attention should be paid to the realization of coal - chemical production cuts and polyester restocking trends [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price and Trading Volume**: The main futures price of ethylene glycol has declined for three consecutive days to 4,240 yuan/ton on June 6, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. Trading volume shrank significantly by 34.6% to 233,000 lots, and positions decreased slightly by 0.1%. The East China spot price also weakened to 4,385 yuan/ton, with the basis widening by 12 yuan to 150 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread rebounded by 60.9% to - 9 yuan/ton, but the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 spreads were still under pressure [2]. - **Cost**: Oil - based production profit remained at a loss of 86.3 dollars/ton, coal - based production profit stayed at a deep loss of - 250 yuan/ton for five consecutive weeks, and methanol - based production profit deteriorated to a historical low of - 1,144 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 54.4%, with the oil - based operating rate rising by 1.35 percentage points to 56.4% and the coal - based operating rate remaining unchanged at 50.5%. Polyester factory load was stuck at 89.4%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.4%. East China main port inventory increased by 3.7% to 598,000 tons, reaching a four - week high, while Zhangjiagang inventory decreased slightly by 5.2% to 218,000 tons due to improved shipments [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main contract of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.28% to 4,240 yuan/ton, and trading volume decreased by 34.58%. Positions decreased by 0.13%. The East China spot price decreased by 0.57% to 4,385 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 8.7% [5]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of ethylene glycol increased by 60.87% to - 9 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 50% to - 12 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 32.26% to 21 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profits**: Oil - based production profit was at a loss of 86 dollars/ton, ethylene - based production profit was at a loss of 577 yuan/ton, methanol - based production profit was at a loss of 1,144 yuan/ton, and coal - based production profit remained unchanged at - 250 yuan/ton [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.83% to 54.4%, the oil - based operating rate increased by 1.35% to 56.4%, and the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged at 50.5%. Polyester factory load and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged at 89.4% and 63.4% respectively [5]. - **Inventory and Arrivals**: East China main port inventory increased by 3.69% to 598,000 tons, Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 5.22% to 218,000 tons, and arrivals increased by 19.13% to 137,000 tons [5]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is mainly driven by raw materials, and although it is boosted by the short - term rebound of coking coal, there is limited room for a substantial increase in coking coal due to the overall supply - demand imbalance in the raw material market and the approaching traditional off - season [3]. - The iron ore price is expected to rebound along with industrial products, but the rebound amplitude is smaller than that of coking coal, and the trend may not be strong, with decreasing volatility [21]. - Coking coal has a short - term rebound demand, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Coke has limited short - term supply - demand contradictions, but lacks the conditions for bottom - fishing [3][36]. - The negative impact of high inventory on ferroalloys is weakening, but the cost side is bearish. It is not recommended to bottom - fish before coal prices stabilize [54]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The further decline of the disc price requires price cuts by alkali plants or rapid inventory accumulation [69][70]. - The glass market has weak short - term fundamentals and cost support. Although the valuation is relatively low, it is necessary to wait for the realization of spot price cut expectations [94]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Influencing Factors**: The price of steel is mainly affected by raw materials. The short - term rebound of coking coal boosts steel prices, but in the traditional off - season with a tendency of decreasing hot metal and an overall oversupply of raw materials, coking coal lacks a substantial upward driving force [3]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 2951, 2952, and 2959 respectively, showing different changes compared with the previous day. The closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3075, 3072, and 3077 respectively [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Market sentiment has slightly recovered. The fundamentals of iron ore have weakened month - on - month, with increased shipments and a possible shift from de - stocking to slight inventory accumulation. The iron ore price is expected to rebound with industrial products, but the amplitude is smaller than that of coking coal [21]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: On June 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 665, 646.5, and 701 respectively. The daily average hot metal output in the week of May 30, 2025, was 241.91, showing a week - on - week decrease [22][30]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: Some mines have reduced production, but large - scale production cuts have not occurred. The downstream coking profit is damaged, and the raw material replenishment willingness is poor. The import window is expected to be difficult to open, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has been frequently declining [36]. - **Coke**: Steel mills in Tangshan have initiated a third - round price cut. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant, but the cost support is loose, and it is not suitable for bottom - fishing [36]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 813, and the coking coal main contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 56. The coke warehouse receipt cost (Rizhao Port) was 1315, and the coke main contract basis (Rizhao Port) was - 27 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The negative impact of high inventory on ferroalloys is gradually weakening, and the supply pressure on the supply side is small. However, the cost side is bearish, and it is not recommended to bottom - fish before coal prices stabilize [54]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 284, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 268 [58][59]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The soda ash production has recovered, and the overall maintenance volume from May to June is lower than expected. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The demand is stable, and the photovoltaic sector tends to return to an oversupply pattern [69][70]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1236, 1203, and 1196 respectively, showing different degrees of decline compared with the previous day [71]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The spot market of glass remains weak, and there is still an expectation of price cuts. The daily melting volume fluctuates slightly. The cumulative apparent demand has declined by nearly 10%. The disc price is approaching the level of full - industry chain losses, and it is necessary to wait for the realization of spot price cut expectations [94]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1075, 963, and 1018 respectively, showing different degrees of decline compared with the previous day [95].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Vegetable Oils and Grains** - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may oscillate within a platform range in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal may oscillate weakly in the short - term [1] - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term, with attention on new wheat listings and weather changes [1] - **Metals** - Copper prices will continue to fluctuate around the moving average system, with overall changes being minor, and the defense line set at the upper edge of the moving average system [2] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach on dips is recommended [5] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold lows due to news disturbances [6] - Iron ore 2509 will oscillate in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [7] - **Energy and Chemicals** - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [8] - Rubber will be weak overall, with attention on downstream rubber processing plant operating rates [9] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [10] - Soda ash futures will continue to oscillate within the bottom - range in the short - term [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Vegetable Oils and Grains - **Rapeseed Oil** - **Spot Price**: The price of imported Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Qinzhou is 9300 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Market Analysis**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic rapeseed will be listed soon. Near - term imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while long - term supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and short - to - medium - term inventory may remain high [1] - **Soybean Meal** - **Spot Price**: Spot prices in various regions have declined, such as 2770 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang (-30) [1] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. US soybean sowing is going smoothly, and Brazil is in the peak export season. Domestic soybean supply is recovering, and the pressure on soybean meal supply is emerging. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulation is slow [1] - **Corn** - **Spot Price**: Different regions have different prices, such as 2204 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia [1] - **Market Analysis**: US corn growing conditions are good, and there are concerns about long - term imports. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the transition period between old and new grains. Wheat may replace corn in the feed sector, and weather will affect prices. Downstream demand is weak [1] Metals - **Copper** - **Spot Price**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78350 - 78620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2] - **Market Analysis**: US employment data and political factors affect the possible end of the interest - rate cut cycle. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material supply issues persist, and copper inventory is declining, making the market more complex [2] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Spot Price**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventory is high. Supply is still above average, and demand is divided. Overall, prices are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [3] - **Steel** - **Spot Price**: Shanghai rebar is 3090 yuan, with a Tangshan开工率 of 83.56%, social inventory of 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory of 200.4 million tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry. Demand is down year - on - year, raw material prices are weak, and inventory is low. The market is driven by policy expectations and fundamentals [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Spot Price**: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton [6] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts, inventory is slowly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [6] - **Iron Ore** - **Spot Price**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, and the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 735 yuan [7] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are down, Brazilian shipments are up, and port inventory is decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is divided [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Analysis**: Tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions have led to supply concerns. OPEC has lowered future demand growth forecasts, and there are concerns about global demand [8] - **Rubber** - **Spot Price**: Different types of rubber have different prices, such as 13350 yuan/ton for domestic whole - latex [9] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas orders and domestic demand should be monitored. The trade war and oversupply are dragging down prices. Supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season [9] - **PVC** - **Spot Price**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [10] - **Market Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has increased, demand is still mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased. The fundamentals are still weak, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels [10] - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Price**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1371.88 yuan/ton, down 6.25 yuan/ton [11] - **Market Analysis**: Production has increased due to new capacity. Inventory has decreased, and demand is average. The market lacks new drivers and may oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Oscillating [6] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [6] - Scrap Steel: Oscillating [7] - Coke: Oscillating Weakly [7] - Coking Coal: Oscillating Weakly [10] - Glass: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Soda Ash: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [13] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [14] Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the macro - sentiment was weak, and the US further imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing the prices of black building materials to decline. However, the actual impact of tariffs was limited, and there were rumors of Mongolia increasing resource taxes, leading to a price rebound at night. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the manufacturing's rush for exports is less than expected. Although some electric furnaces and blast furnaces are in the red, the overall profitability provides cost support. Low valuations drive price rebounds, but the upside is limited [1][2]. - In terms of iron elements, the overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. The new projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2]. - For carbon elements, the coking coal production remains high, and the Mongolian coal port clearance is also at a high level, resulting in a loose supply. The coke production is at a high level, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The coking coal inventory pressure upstream is increasing, and it's difficult to find price support [2]. - Regarding alloys, the arrival of South32 Australian ore at the port increases the pressure on oxidized ore spot. The ban on manganese ore exports by Gabon has no obvious impact on the domestic market. With the recovery of manganese ore shipments, the port inventory is rising, and the cost drag persists. The ferrosilicon supply increases slightly, and the downstream is eager to reduce inventory. The glass demand decline in the off - season is not obvious, and the supply - side news can cause market fluctuations. The soda ash supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Core Logic: The overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. New projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high, so the annual molten iron output is expected to be higher than last year. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The black sector rebounded last night, and iron ore also rose slightly [2][6]. - Outlook: The US tariff policy has limited actual negative impact on iron ore, but may cause pessimistic sentiment. Considering the uncertain policies, the tight supply - demand balance, and the fact that the price has factored in many negative factors, the room for further significant decline is limited [6]. Steel - Core Logic: The domestic policy is in a vacuum, and there are still tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand outlook is weak. The molten iron output is high, and the steel production has increased. Although the supply - demand fundamentals improved this week and the inventory decreased, the falling raw material prices and pessimistic demand expectations suppress the price [6]. - Outlook: The fundamentals improved this week, but the outlook is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The post - holiday scrap steel arrival was low, and the loss during off - peak electricity hours increased. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The supply was tight after the holiday, and the demand from electric furnaces and blast furnaces was affected. The inventory increased slightly [7]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace loss is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Coke - Core Logic: The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the market is pessimistic. The supply is stable, but the demand is weakening as the molten iron output declines and the off - season approaches [7][9]. - Outlook: The falling coking coal price weakens the cost support, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [9]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The market trading atmosphere is weak, and coal mines face shipment pressure. The supply is still loose as the production remains high and the Mongolian coal port clearance is high. The coke production is high, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The upstream inventory pressure is increasing [10]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic, the supply - demand is loose, and the high inventory suppresses the price. The price is expected to remain weak [10]. Glass - Core Logic: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, and the deep - processing demand improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. There was cold - repair and复产, and the supply pressure remains. The inventory decreased slightly, and the market is sensitive to supply - side news [3][11]. - Outlook: The real - world demand faces pressure in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price cuts in Hubei [11]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The supply pressure persists as some enterprises' production has recovered. The demand for heavy alkali is for rigid needs, and the increase in float glass daily melting is uncertain. The short - term inventory decreased due to maintenance, but the long - term surplus remains [11]. - Outlook: The supply surplus remains, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [11]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon manganese price was weak. The cost pressure is high as the market is bearish on raw materials, and the South32 Australian ore is arriving at the port. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak as the black market enters the off - season [13]. - Outlook: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to continue to decline as the manganese ore inventory rises and the coke price is falling [13]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon price was weak. The supply increased slightly as some furnaces were restarted. The demand is weak as the steel market enters the off - season and the metal magnesium market is sluggish [14]. - Outlook: The supply and demand are both weak, and the demand may weaken further. The price is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the recovery is weak. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is strengthening in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3455 - 3509 [8][9]. - The bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In May 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 28.6433%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.06 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 478,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.64%. The estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises was 764,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79%. Refineries have reduced production to ease supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.047%, a month - on - month increase of 1.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 26%, a month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.80 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 437.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 701.2414 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.49%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The rising crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [8]. - **Basis**: On June 3, the Shandong spot price was 3670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 214 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%; the in - plant inventory was 814,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.76%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral trend [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the prices, price changes, and inventory changes of different asphalt contracts, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as information on weekly inventory, weekly output, weekly maintenance volume, weekly shipment volume, and downstream demand开工率 [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - It shows the historical average price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025 [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volumes of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 - 2025 [46][47]. - **Output**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly output trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [53][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: It shows the historical output trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - **开工率**: It shows the historical weekly开工率 trends of asphalt from 2023 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical exchange warehouse receipt trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [65][66][67]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventory**: It shows the historical social and in - plant inventory trends of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [70][71]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [73][74]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [76][77][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: It shows the historical output trends of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][90]. - It shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [100][101]. - **Downstream开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [103][104][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to May 2025, including data on monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [108][109].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - International crude oil futures prices have been rising, supported by a weakening US dollar and geopolitical risks. The supply - side OPEC+ production increase has alleviated concerns, but trade frictions suppress demand. After the holiday, the short - term trend depends on the US dollar, geopolitical situation, and supply - demand re - balancing. Unilateral trading can be in a slightly bullish direction, with WTI in the range of [59, 69], Brent [61, 71], and SC [440, 500]. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of INE spreads and consider buying a straddle option to capture post - holiday volatility [8]. Styrene - In June, the supply - demand of styrene is expected to gradually become looser, and the price remains under pressure. However, due to tight spot circulation, the near - end price may fluctuate. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [2]. Chlor - Alkali - For caustic soda, short - term spot prices remain strong. Before the fundamentals significantly weaken or warehouse receipts flow out, consider expanding the spread between the near - month and September contracts. For PVC, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions are prominent. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach, with an operating range of 4500 - 5000, while also paying attention to macro - level disturbances [30][40]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in high supply and weak demand expectations. Currently, supply is abundant, and demand is in a seasonal off - peak. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market will test whether agricultural fertilizer procurement can start effectively. If not, it may further pressure the market [44]. Polyolefin - For plastics, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports. For PP, supply pressure will increase as maintenance ends. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of replenishment. Unilateral trading for PP can be short - biased at high prices, and the LP spread is expected to widen [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In June, PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, but may weaken after mid - June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels, gradually exit the PX9 - 1 positive spread, and look for opportunities to narrow the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: In June, PTA supply - demand remains tight but may weaken in late June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels and exit the TA9 - 1 positive spread at high prices [50]. - **MEG**: In June, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 at around 4200 and taking a positive spread for EG9 - 1 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: In June, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost. Consider expanding the PF July processing fee around 800 [50]. - **Bottle chips**: In June, bottle chip supply - demand is expected to improve, and processing fees will be supported. Consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [50]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread Data**: On June 3, Brent was at $65.12/barrel, WTI at $63.05/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased, while SC M1 - M3 increased. Refined oil prices generally rose, and some cracking spreads decreased [8]. Styrene - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, most upstream prices decreased, and some styrene - related prices and spreads also changed. For example, styrene - pure benzene spread decreased by 2.5%. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to loosen in June [2]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Data**: On May 30, most PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices were stable or changed slightly. Caustic soda exports had a small profit change, and PVC exports' profit increased significantly. In June, caustic soda maintenance is high, and PVC supply pressure is expected to increase [30][40]. Urea - **Futures and Related Data**: On May 30, most urea futures prices decreased slightly. Supply is high, with daily production increasing, and demand is weak, in a seasonal off - peak [44]. Polyolefin - **PE and PP Data**: On May 30, PE and PP futures prices decreased. Some spreads and basis values changed. In early June, plastics may see inventory reduction, while PP supply pressure will increase later [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, upstream and downstream prices in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, PX prices decreased, and some polyester product prices and cash - flows also changed. Different products in the polyester chain have different supply - demand and price trends in June [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, the psychological price of nickel ore has decreased, and the cost support for refined nickel has slightly weakened. In the medium term, the supply remains loose, which restricts the upside potential. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the news from the ore end still affects short - term market trends. The nickel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is affected by the weak operation of nickel. The spot market trading atmosphere is weak, and the terminal purchases mainly for rigid demand. The overall supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the demand is slowly recovering. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure has eased. The market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is bearish. The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is difficult to boost. The raw material cost support is weakening, and the fundamental supply - demand contradiction is clear. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract price ranging from 56,000 to 60,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The zinc supply side shows a long - term loosening trend, but the short - term TC increase is weak. The demand side is stable, but there is a weakening expectation after the peak season. The inventory decline supports the price. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy can be considered. The main contract price is expected to range from 21,500 to 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. Aluminum - For alumina, the current inventory reduction and tight spot supply support the price, with a short - term support level of 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the low inventory supports the price, but the lack of macro - positive factors and the pressure on the demand side limit the upside. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate between 19,500 and 21,000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The strong fundamentals limit the downside, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price focusing on the range of 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - The tin supply is expected to be restored, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the supply - side raw material recovery rhythm [14]. Summary by Directory Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.40% to 121,525 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1.31% to 122,625 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 13.64% to 2,500 yuan/ton [1]. Cost - The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel decreased by 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production of electrowinning nickel increased by 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 6.08% to 36,300 tons, and imports decreased by 68.84% to 8,164 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.24% to 27,742 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.14% to 44,151 tons [1]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesia's production decreased by 6.67% to 42 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 3.80% to 51.08 million tons [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.98% to 60,900 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.00% to 59,300 yuan/ton [5]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65% to 73,810 tons, and demand increased by 3.02% to 89,627 tons. The total inventory increased by 6.81% to 96,202 tons [5]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,830 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, refined zinc production increased by 1.55% to 55.54 million tons, and exports increased by 75.76% to 0.25 million tons. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 6.72% to 7.50 million tons [8]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.15% to 20,380 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [11]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% to 360.60 million tons. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 8.26% to 51.10 million tons [11]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.03% to 78,485 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 150 yuan/ton [12]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32% to 112.57 million tons, and imports decreased by 19.06% to 25 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 4.81% to 78.03 million tons [12]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.23% to 259,000 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.52% to 15,200 tons. SHEF inventory increased by 0.33% to 8,445 tons [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to weakened cost support, expected increase in supply, lackluster consumption, high industry inventory, and a large number of warehouse receipts, the short - term market has no bullish drivers, and the futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and seek a bottom. For polysilicon, as the first delivery approaches, the long - short game intensifies. With limited warehouse receipt registration and high 06 - contract positions, closing positions may trigger market movements. The short - term supply pressure eases slightly, but downstream demand is sluggish, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 27, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to decline. The main contract 2507 opened at 7625 yuan/ton and closed at 7440 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton (-3.63%) from the previous settlement. The 2505 main - contract positions were 227,207 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 64,626 lots, a decrease of 287 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon dropped, and the basis strengthened recently. The organic silicon DMC quoted price remained stable, and the industry's operating rate is expected to decline further [1]. Supply and Demand - With the decline in raw material prices such as silicon coal and southwest electricity prices during the wet season, cost support has weakened. The supply side has significant over - capacity, with复产 expectations in the southwest and production restart plans for leading northwest enterprises. The consumer side is average, and the fundamentals are weak [2]. Strategy - In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly and seek a bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises should sell and hedge at high prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 27, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 fluctuated. It opened at 34,500 yuan/ton and closed at 35,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% from the previous day. The main - contract positions reached 80,800 lots, and the trading volume was 191,734 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [4][5][6]. Strategy - As the first delivery approaches, the long - short game in the market intensifies. With limited warehouse receipt registration and high 06 - contract positions, closing positions may trigger market movements. In the short term, due to lack of demand drivers, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to operate within a range, and be short - term cautiously bullish on single - side trading [7].