Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff policies on consumer spending and inflation in the U.S., highlighting that while consumer confidence has shown signs of recovery, the long-term effects of tariffs are likely to lead to increased inflation pressure as pre-tariff inventories are depleted [1][8]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Spending - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index rose to 61.8 in July, marking a 5-month high, but remains 16% lower than before the Trump administration [1]. - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, exceeding market expectations, while consumer spending on debit and credit cards grew by 7% and 4% respectively in Q2 compared to the previous year [4][5]. - Despite these positive indicators, Wells Fargo warns that consumer spending is not as robust as previously thought, with households reducing discretionary service spending [4][5]. Group 2: Discretionary Spending Trends - Discretionary service spending has shown a concerning decline, with a 0.3% drop noted in May, and a contribution of only 0.3 percentage points to GDP in the first quarter, the lowest since Q2 2020 [5][7]. - Consumers are increasingly opting for essential goods over discretionary items, as evidenced by shopping behavior during Amazon's Prime Day, where essential items were prioritized [6][7]. Group 3: Tariff Policy Effects - The effective tariff rate currently stands at 20.6%, the highest since 1910, yet inflation data does not reflect significant price increases due to tariffs [8][9]. - Key factors mitigating the impact of tariffs include declining energy prices and the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy, which has kept inflation in a downward trend [8][10]. - Import behavior has shifted, with a significant increase in imports prior to tariff implementation, leading to a stockpiling effect that has buffered immediate price impacts [8][9]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The overall economic growth in the U.S. is expected to slow, with various economic indicators showing mixed performance and a general contraction trend [2][10]. - Low-income households are particularly vulnerable, as they are quickly exhausting pandemic savings and facing rising debt levels, which could lead to a significant impact on overall consumer spending [7][10].

Group 1 - The recent rebound of the US dollar is influenced by two key factors: Trump's tariff threats and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance [1][2] - Trump's renewed threats of tariffs have been a direct catalyst for the dollar's recent rise, with market attention focused on the August 1 deadline for potential tariff implementation [1] - The Federal Reserve's dovish comments have limited the potential gains of the dollar, suggesting that without such interventions, the dollar could have surged significantly [1][2] Group 2 - Despite facing resistance from the Federal Reserve, the dollar has found a stronger footing during the recent short squeeze, with technical analysis indicating support for the euro/dollar pair [2] - The current sentiment around the dollar is not entirely stable, as any further dovish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers could lead to a reversal in market sentiment [2] - The future trajectory of the dollar will depend on the complex interplay between Trump's tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights supply disruptions in TDI, spandex, and organic silicon, with the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River project expected to boost demand for civil explosives in Tibet. The elimination of outdated production capacity may improve the industry landscape [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the anticipated increase in global oil supply led by non-OPEC producers, while demand remains stable with a projected global GDP growth of 2.8%. However, the impact of tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties may affect oil demand growth [3][4]. - The report suggests that the recent fire at Covestro's German facility has led to a significant drop in TDI supply in Europe, causing prices to surge from €1900/ton to €2500/ton, with domestic prices rising from ¥12000/ton to ¥14913/ton [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry, noting a significant increase in oil supply and stable demand, while also highlighting the potential impact of geopolitical tensions and tariff policies on oil prices [3][4]. - It mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors, and that the U.S. may accelerate natural gas export facility construction, potentially lowering import costs [3]. Supply Chain Disruptions - The report details the supply chain disruptions in TDI, spandex, and organic silicon, with specific companies recommended for investment, including Wanhua Chemical, Cangzhou Dahua, and Hualu Hengsheng [3]. - The report notes that the recent fire at Dongyue Silicon Material's factory may tighten supply in the organic silicon market, suggesting investment in Xingfa Group, Xin'an Chemical, and Luxi Chemical [3]. Policy and Capacity Elimination - The report highlights the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plans to promote structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity in key industries, which may lead to an improved industry landscape [3][6]. - It provides statistics on the proportion of outdated capacity in various chemical products, indicating potential benefits from policy changes [6][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on traditional cyclical stocks and specific companies within the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and various agricultural chemical firms [3]. - It also identifies growth stocks with recovery potential in sectors such as semiconductor materials and panel materials, suggesting companies like Yake Technology and Dinglong Co [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend due to political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and ongoing global geo - economic risks [3]. - Copper prices may continue to be strong in the coming week, influenced by positive US retail data, tariff expectations, and favorable tariff policies between the US, Indonesia, and Japan [14]. - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, supported by positive macro factors and low inventories [30]. - Alumina is expected to show a strong trend in the short term, driven by a significant decline in warrants and macro policies [31]. - Zinc prices will be mainly influenced by macro data and market sentiment in the short term, with supply - side disruptions also being a point of concern [60]. - The nickel industry chain may face some disturbances. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - Tin prices will likely continue to fluctuate, with the view that the upward pressure is greater than the downward support in the short term [91]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate will be strong in the market, and the operating rate is expected to increase in the long term [106]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while the polysilicon market needs to be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fundamentals are dominated by Fed policy expectations. Political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and global geo - economic risks support the upward trend of gold prices [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily - view analysis provided, but various price - related data such as SHFE and SGX silver futures and spot price differences are presented [6]. Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a downward - breaking trend before July 17 but were boosted by positive US retail data and tariff expectations. They are expected to be slightly stronger in the coming week [14]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on copper futures and spot prices, import and export profits, and inventory changes [15][19][23]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macro data is positive, and low inventories support prices. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [30]. - **Alumina**: The current production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is tight. Warrants have decreased significantly, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is supported by high scrap - aluminum prices, but demand is weak in the off - season [31]. Zinc - **Price and Market**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term prices are mainly affected by macro data and market sentiment [60]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on zinc futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [61][66][69]. Nickel - **Industry Chain Situation**: The nickel industry chain is affected by factors such as export restrictions, tariffs, and rainfall in the Philippines. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volumes, and inventories [74][76]. Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices are in a volatile trend. In the short term, the upward pressure is greater than the downward support due to the expected inflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand [91]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [92][96][99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: In the short term, the market is strong due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. In the long term, the operating rate is expected to increase as prices rise [106]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on lithium carbonate futures prices, spreads, and inventory changes [107][113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: With positive macro - sentiment, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [115]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations have led to market speculation. Attention should be paid to the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on industrial silicon spot and futures prices, as well as prices of related products in the silicon industry chain [116][119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. The increase in tariffs by Trump has raised corporate costs, and if the tariff scope expands or negotiations fail, it will accelerate inflation and strengthen the inflation - hedging property of gold. Although the market focuses on the September interest rate cut expectation, the core inflation has not continuously heated up, and the real interest rate is difficult to decline, so the gold price may be trapped in a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, the transmission of tariffs to the end - user will increase inflation stickiness, and the recovery of easing expectations will be beneficial to the gold price. The expansion of the US fiscal and trade double deficits and the protracted frictions will weaken the US dollar's credit and support the central bank's gold - buying demand. It is recommended to buy gold on dips and be cautious about the correction risk of silver [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.7 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month increase of 4.68; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9271 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 2. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 211,239 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 8952; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 467,534 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,142. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 147,538 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 4931; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract are 135,033 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8235. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kg, with no change; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,204,466 kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 6610 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 775.7 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month increase of 4; the spot price of silver is 9200 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 31. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 6 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.68; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 71 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 33 [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 948.5 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.29; the silver ETF holdings are 14,694.95 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 124.34. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 202,968 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 988; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 58,521 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 4879. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, with a decrease of 21.4. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.83; the global total annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, with a decrease of 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.14; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.21%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.28 [2] 3.5 Industry News - An informed source said that US Treasury Secretary Bessent privately advised President Trump not to try to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Bessent believes that apart from the overall economic factors, Fed officials have signaled that they may cut interest rates twice by the end of the year. The US House of Representatives passed the 2026 fiscal year defense appropriation bill with 221 votes in favor and 209 against, with a total amount of about $832 billion. President Trump posted on social media that three Iranian nuclear facilities had been "completely destroyed". US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who is visiting Japan, said that the two countries could reach a "good" trade agreement, but hinted that the process might take more time. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 39.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 58%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7% [2]

Economic Overview - In July, economic prices increased while volumes decreased, indicating a search for rebalancing in supply and demand, with marginal economic growth expected to slow down[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase, with the year-on-year decline in growth narrowing, primarily driven by the "anti-involution" policy expectations[1][45] Real Estate Market - The sales sentiment in the real estate market weakened, with both month-on-month and year-on-year growth turning negative; the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 15.85% compared to June[2][11] - It is anticipated that first-tier city housing prices may stabilize by the end of the year, while second-tier cities may see stabilization by June next year[2][48] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand showed a mild recovery, with the rebar production rate increasing to 43.06%, up 0.87 percentage points from June, while prices slightly decreased by 0.16%[15] - The average operating rate for asphalt plants rose to 32.4%, indicating a recovery in demand, with asphalt inventory decreasing by 7.31%[18] Consumer Behavior - July consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, supported by a surge in tourism during the summer, with domestic tourism projected to exceed 2.5 billion trips, recovering to over 115% of 2019 levels[26] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased, reflecting a rebound in travel demand during the summer[23] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected intensification of global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[3]

宏 观 研 究 美国：居民消费仍具韧性 [Table_Authors] ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 本周高频数据显示美欧经济仍具有一定韧性，美国市场调查层面和交易层面通胀预 期出现分化，关税对美国通胀的影响或逐渐体现，美联储对后续降息仍有耐心。 投资要点： 风险提示：海外货币政策调整超预期，关税政策的不确定性。 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.20 [Table_Report] 2025-07-21 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。本周（2025.7.11-2025.7.18），大宗商品价格涨 跌互现。其中，COMEX 铜下跌 1.2%，伦敦金现下跌 0.15%，标普-高 盛商品指数上涨 0.35%。 主要经济体股市普遍上涨，其中恒生指数 上涨 2.8%，日经 225 上涨 0.6%，标普 500 上涨 0.6%。债市方面， 10 年期美债收益率较前一周回升 1BP 至 4.44%，国内 10Y 国债期货 价格下跌 0.04%。外汇市场方面，美元指数较前一周回升，报收 98.5， 日元和人 ...

新华社纽约7月20日电 美国彭博社网站日前刊登文章说，特朗普关税政策给美国夏威夷咖啡农户带 来麻烦。文章摘要如下： 科纳咖啡农户协会副会长兼狮门农场总裁苏珊娜·施里纳表示，虽然围绕贸易和特朗普"购买美国 货"要求的叙事可以把注意力吸引到夏威夷商品上，但该州农户面临的结局是"关税对我们的伤害将很可 能像对美国本土咖啡烘焙商的伤害一样大"。 施里纳说，当成本上涨导致消费需求减少时，如果人们离开咖啡市场转而消费能量饮料，"这将会 对我们构成伤害"。 道明证券高宏公司分析师安德鲁·查尔斯表示，如果美国对巴西咖啡的进口关税从目前的10%提高 到50%，美国咖啡连锁品牌星巴克公司的盈利将下降约1.4%。 夏威夷咖啡农户有个讯息要告诉美国总统特朗普，即美国对巴西等主要咖啡出口国征收高关税最终 也将对美国农户构成伤害。 夏威夷是美国唯一的咖啡豆种植州，而绝大部分美国人消费的咖啡进口自巴西等南美国家和越南。 特朗普此前威胁对来自这两国的咖啡征收50%和20%的关税。 乍看夏威夷种植者应是咖啡关税的明显受益者，但实际正相反，咖啡价格整体上涨将会打击已经疲 于应对通胀的消费者，抑制包括高端夏威夷科纳咖啡在内的咖啡消费。 美国全国咖 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector is experiencing a narrow fluctuation in gold prices while silver continues to rise. Over the past two weeks, London spot gold increased by 0.70% to $3355.10 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price slightly decreased by 0.01% to 777.02 yuan per gram. In contrast, London spot silver rose by 3.75% to $38.27 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price increased by 3.97% to 9273 yuan per kilogram [6][12] - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to the volatility in tariff policies and interest rate cut expectations. Key factors include potential tariffs on imports announced by President Trump, the possibility of changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, and the opening of the $9 trillion U.S. pension market to alternative investments such as cryptocurrencies and precious metals [6][7] - In the medium term, the combination of "interest rate cut trading" and "Trump 2.0" will provide strong momentum for gold price increases, supported by the recent economic data from the U.S. and the ongoing tariff negotiations [6][7] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - Over the last two weeks, London spot gold rose by 0.70% to $3355.10 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price fell by 0.01% to 777.02 yuan per gram. London spot silver increased by 3.75% to $38.27 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price rose by 3.97% to 9273 yuan per kilogram [11][12] 2. U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The U.S. job market and economic performance show resilience, with the current interest rate cut cycle potentially extended due to employment strength and inflation concerns. The Federal Reserve has significant policy space, which increases the window for bullish gold positions [7][23] 3. Positions and Trading Volume - The report indicates changes in trading volumes and positions, with specific data on COMEX and Shanghai gold and silver holdings, reflecting market dynamics [41][45] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The report notes that the domestic gold price difference is 5.69 yuan per gram, a decrease of 4.13 yuan from two weeks ago, while the silver price difference is 440.20 yuan per kilogram, down by 40.03 yuan [59] 5. Futures Basis Situation - As of the last week, the international gold basis (spot-futures) was -0.40 USD per ounce, an increase of 3.70 USD from two weeks prior, while the domestic gold basis was -3.65 yuan per gram, up by 1.84 yuan [67]

Group 1: Eurozone Focus - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged, with current earnings reflecting a 10-15% impact from tariffs [8][15][10] - The European telecom sector shows potential for dividend growth, with an average expected increase of 4.3% over the next two years [22][19] - The Stoxx 600 index's earnings have been adjusted downwards by 3-4.5% due to tariff impacts, with a potential further decline of 2.5-5% under a 25% tariff scenario [16][18] Group 2: Japanese Market Focus - Japan's inflation is projected to further slow to around 2.5%, with the Tokyo CPI showing a decrease from 3.6% to 3.1% [34][36] - The machine tool orders in Japan remained stable, with June orders reaching 133 billion yen, indicating a 3% month-on-month growth [33][31] - Companies like JR East and Fujitsu are highlighted for their growth opportunities, with JR East's target price set at 4,100 yen and Fujitsu at 4,200 yen [42][40] Group 3: Taiwan Market Focus - Taiwan's exports surged by 33.7% year-on-year in June, driven by strong demand for technology products, particularly computers and servers [52][49] - AI demand remains robust, but corporate earnings growth may slow, with potential risks to performance in the second half of the year [53][55] - Companies such as Jentech and Jiadeng Precision are positioned to benefit from strong ASIC demand and advanced process requirements, respectively [57][56]