1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The implementation of the trade - in policy will continue to boost the terminal demand for chemicals. The prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The OPEC+ will hold a monthly video conference on January 4th to plan the organization's future production, and the market generally expects it to maintain the decision of "suspending the production increase in the first quarter". Geopolitical situations in Venezuela, Russia, and Ukraine are short - term supports for oil prices. The Chinese government has advanced the issuance of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade - in, which will significantly boost styrene [2]. - The supply and demand of the chemical industry have been flat recently, with no major contradictions, and the overall trend will be volatile. The PTA spot processing fee has increased, and the operating enthusiasm of PTA enterprises will rise. The processing fee of downstream polyester filament has dropped to a three - year low, and the industrial chain profit has shifted. The spot liquidity of polyolefin has tightened, and the futures price will move sideways. The rebound of styrene is not optimistic due to the drag of raw material pure benzene and high inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. API data shows that US crude oil and refined product inventories continued to accumulate in the week of December 26th, and the total inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products is rising against the seasonal trend. The geopolitical prospects in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are the core factors affecting crude oil supply expectations. The decline in Venezuela's shipments is not obvious for now, but its crude oil exports are expected to decline later. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the balance of oversupply and frequent geopolitical disruptions [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rises following the increase in crude oil prices. The increase in crude oil prices drives up the asphalt futures price. If there is a substantial supply disruption in the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt price will be strong; otherwise, it may rise and then fall. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory is starting to accumulate [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Be vigilant about the positive support for fuel oil from Iran's suspension of natural gas supply to Iraq. Although there are factors that support the high - sulfur fuel oil price, such as the potential resumption of fuel oil power generation in Iran and Iraq, the demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and there are medium - and long - term double negatives [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates [4]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions have emerged again, and combined with capital rotation, the upward trend in the pre - holiday market may continue [4]. - **Urea**: There is concentrated pre - holiday procurement, and urea is expected to be in a consolidation state [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force for ethylene glycol is average [4]. - **PX**: The expected supply - demand pattern of PX has weakened, and the price has回调 after rising. International oil prices are strong, providing cost support. However, due to the market's focus on supply increase expectations, the price has回调 after rising, and the terminal has slowed down its procurement rhythm [12]. - **PTA**: The maintenance of polyester plants is gradually being implemented. The supply - demand of PTA has weakened marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost in the short term [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The callback is limited, the processing fee is under pressure, and the willingness to reduce production is increasing. The cost support is strong, but the downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the processing fee is under pressure [24]. - **Bottle Chip**: It fluctuates following the upstream cost. The price of polyester bottle chips fluctuates following the raw materials, and the short - term driving force is limited [26]. - **Propylene**: The CP price in January has been raised, and the PDH is expected to reduce its operating rate, so the PL has strengthened slightly [4]. - **PP**: The CP price has been raised, and PP has strengthened slightly [4]. - **Plastic**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the holiday, and plastic is expected to fluctuate. Oil prices are fluctuating, and the fundamental support for plastic has increased slightly, but the driving force for both long and short positions is relatively weak [31]. - **Styrene**: The short - term market is dominated by sentiment, and the sustainability of export transactions should be monitored. The cost support from pure benzene is weak, but there are positive factors such as export orders and market sentiment stimulation. However, the supply and demand situation is not optimistic, and the upside is restricted [18]. - **PVC**: Short - sellers take profits before the holiday, and PVC is mainly in a fluctuating state. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand expectation has improved, but the high - inventory pressure still exists [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply in the short term [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given, along with their latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists different varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index is 2271.47, up 0.56% [284]. - **Energy Index**: On December 30, 2025, the energy index was 1093.97, with a daily increase of 0.49%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.18%, and a year - to - date decrease of 10.91% [286].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of multilateral cooperation and global governance initiatives, as highlighted by Xi Jinping's diplomatic engagements and proposals [1][3][10] - The U.S. tariff war has significantly impacted the multilateral trade system, with the highest actual tariff rates in nearly a century, prompting international criticism and countermeasures from various countries [2] - The rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies necessitates enhanced governance, with global dialogues initiated by the United Nations to address associated risks [4] Group 2 - The global financial market is experiencing increased volatility, with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce, reflecting rising structural risks in the global economy [5] - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have resulted in severe humanitarian crises, highlighting the need for international cooperation to achieve peace [6] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposed by China aims to expand institutional openness and promote multilateral trade, signaling a commitment to shared opportunities and development [8] Group 3 - Japan's recent political statements regarding Taiwan have raised concerns about international law and the post-war order, prompting warnings from the international community [9] - The G20 summit held in Johannesburg marks a significant moment for global governance, emphasizing the role of the Global South in addressing global challenges [10] - Political instability in various countries, including South Korea and Japan, reflects a broader trend of upheaval that intertwines with economic and social development challenges [11]

Group 1: Construction and Industrial Production - Recent construction starts have shown a seasonal recovery, with residential construction performing better than infrastructure projects[2] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, although some sectors, such as high furnace and coking, have weakened[2] - Cement supply for infrastructure projects has decreased month-on-month, with a larger year-on-year decline, while residential cement usage has seen a smaller month-on-month change and a narrowing year-on-year decline[2] Group 2: Demand and Sales Trends - Overall demand in construction remains weak, with rebar, wire rod, and building materials at historical lows[3] - Passenger vehicle sales continue to show negative growth year-on-year, while online sales of major home appliances have weakened further[3] - The average transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities increased by 44% compared to the previous two weeks, but still reflects a year-on-year decline of 18% and 27% compared to 2023 and 2024, respectively[6] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Copper, aluminum, and gold prices have reached new historical highs, driven by the expansion of dollar liquidity and industrial activity related to AI investments[4] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the South China industrial product index showing resilience[5] - Recent fluctuations in commodity prices indicate a potential risk of volatility exceeding expectations[77] Group 4: Export and Economic Indicators - Export growth for the period leading up to December 28 is projected to be between 2% and 4%, with a model indicating a 4.2% year-on-year increase[68] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 119.3 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a tightening of liquidity[70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term crude oil fluctuates driven by geopolitics, with high trading difficulty and few participation opportunities. The PX - PTA, a leading chemical variety, may peak and start to correct, and the chemical industry will face a structurally differentiated market in the medium term after the correction [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: Geopolitics is the main short - term driver. Recent events such as the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers, the受阻 of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the possibility of Israel attacking Iran increase geopolitical uncertainties, making trading difficult [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillatory structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Chemicals (1) Asphalt - Logic: The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. With the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation, there is a risk of raw material supply disruption. It can be pre - arranged before the technical structure's upward trend is broken [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a short - term high today but failed to break through due to lack of volume. The short - term support below has moved up to 2965. The strategy is to take half - profit on long positions before the holiday, and set the remaining half - position's stop - profit at 2965 [8]. (2) Styrene - Logic: The port inventory is accumulating, reaching the highest in five years, and the total industrial chain inventory is at a historical high. The demand is weak in the off - season, and there is still pressure of over - inventory in January and February [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a short - term high today with an unobvious breakthrough and insufficient volume. The short - term support is at 6700. The strategy is to take profit on the remaining half of long positions [10][12]. (3) Rubber - Logic: The spot price of Thai cup lump rubber is firm, and some funds flow into low - priced products due to a warm macro - sentiment, driving the price up. However, the downstream tire inventory is over - stocked, and the domestic rubber inventory is accumulating seasonally, reaching a year - on - year high. It still faces great pressure after the short - term rise [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure but should be treated as oscillatory. It oscillated today, and the short - term support is at 15520. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The short - term price of the raw material butadiene is firm due to inventory reduction, and some funds flow into low - priced products due to a warm macro - sentiment, driving the price up. However, high - level production of butadiene will lead to high supply pressure later [16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today without changing the short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 11200. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 11200 [16]. (5) PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. Funds have flowed in since last week. However, the short - term increase is too large, the basis has widened rapidly, and the downstream polyester's acceptance of high prices is low. It faces a corrective market [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today. After a large reduction in positions yesterday, it may have reached a short - term peak, but confirmation is needed. The hourly - level support is at 7260. The strategy is to hold the remaining half - position of long positions with the stop - profit at 7260, and exit if the hourly - line closes below this level [20][23]. (6) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. Funds have flowed in since last week. However, the short - term increase is too large, the basis has widened rapidly, and the downstream polyester's acceptance of high prices is low. It faces a corrective market [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today. After a large reduction in positions, it may have reached a short - term peak, but confirmation is needed. The hourly - level support is at 5070. The strategy is to hold the remaining half - position of long positions with the stop - profit at 5070, and exit if the hourly - line closes below this level [24]. (7) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastics belong are still weak, with new production capacity pressure and the off - season of demand. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [26]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and broke through the short - term pressure at 6315 today, turning the hourly - level structure to long. The short - term support below is at 6255. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [26]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The port inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream MTO is under maintenance. The inventory pressure is improved, but the demand expectation is weak. The overall fundamental driving force is not strong. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and broke through today, making the short - term structure upward again. The short - term support is at 2120. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [29]. (9) PVC - Logic: Although the total PVC inventory is still at a historical high year - on - year, due to large profit losses and low chlor - alkali profits, the PVC production and output have declined for three consecutive weeks. After entering the pattern of both weak supply and demand, the total inventory has also decreased for three consecutive weeks, reducing the supply pressure in the short term. The expectation of spring maintenance in the first quarter and the anti - involution sentiment may drive the market up in the short term [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, but the volume was insufficient, and it cannot be confirmed as the end of the correction. The short - term support is at 4670 - 4680. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 4670 - 4680 [33]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The losses of ethylene glycol plants are expanding, and the number of maintenance plans is increasing, which is expected to reduce the domestic supply pressure. However, the port inventory is still accumulating, exceeding the median of the past five years. Two 720,000 - ton production capacity plants in Taiwan stopped production last week, and there is an expectation of improvement in port inventory accumulation [34]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today. The hourly - line closed at a new high, but the breakthrough was not obvious and the volume was insufficient. The short - term support is temporarily at 3775. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastics belong are still weak, with new production capacity pressure and the off - season of demand. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [38]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, and the hourly - level structure has not reversed. The short - term pressure above is at 6545. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [38]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory remains unchanged, and the inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing. The medium - term pressure of oversupply still exists, but the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions is reduced. It is only suitable for short - position allocation [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, maintaining the short - term upward structure. The short - term support below has moved up to 1170. The strategy is to wait and see after taking profit on long positions yesterday [41]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand remains unchanged. The supply - demand driving force is still downward without a reversal, but there is little space for chasing short positions. After the main contract change, the impact of fundamental reality on the market weakens. Pay attention to expected trading and the possibility of anti - involution policies [44]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in price with a reduction in positions today, continuing the short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 2190. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle and set the stop - profit at 2190 [44].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [26]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Defense Military Index rising by 6% last week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [1][5]. - The report suggests that the military sector is entering a recovery phase, driven by accelerated order deliveries and improved performance expectations for the fourth quarter [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to enhance the quality and quantity of military capabilities, indicating a new growth cycle for the industry [4]. - There is a significant investment opportunity in the military sector due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties and rising demand for consumable military equipment [4]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on new combat equipment, consumable weapons, military trade, and military intelligence as key investment areas [4]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense Military Index outperformed the market, with a 6% increase, ranking second among 31 major industry sectors [5]. - The average increase for the civilian-military integration index was 8.45%, indicating strong performance in this segment [5]. - Top-performing stocks in the defense sector included Shenjian Co. (61.2%), Aerospace Engineering (43.39%), and China Satellite (36.24%) [12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Defense Military Index is 88.65, indicating it is in the upper range historically, suggesting potential for further growth [13][19]. - The report notes a divergence in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [13][19].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月30日 (原油) 周一原油有所反弹，因周末美乌会晤关键问题未解决。乌克兰28日深夜至29日凌晨袭击俄总统普京 位于俄西北部诺夫哥罗德州的官邸,俄方称将予以还击。市场预期短期难以停火,冲突持续将制约 俄原油生产与出口能力。沙特在也门的空袭让供应受干扰的消息持续发酵。她缘冲突消息不断，为 油价带来阶段性地缘溢价。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属大幅回落。近期美联储宽松前景以及地缘风险支撑责金属强势，但资金推动下涨幅过大 风险不断积累，国内外交易所陆续调整保证金和交易限制，短期市场波动率高，谨慎参与。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜减仓跌至9.6万，整体持仓仍高。跨年时段单边交易以加速度兑现2026年尤其一季度铜精 矿供应紧俏等利多因素。国内沪粤现货贴水幅度扩至330、235元/吨，SMM社库增至21.48万吨。持 有执行价10.4万卖看涨与9.8万买看跌期权组合。 (铝) 原生铅交割品牌炼厂检修延续，SMM铝社库不足2万吨，支撑盘面上行，但电池企业年底盘库，暂停 现货采购3-7天，沪铝于1.75万元/吨附近感受到明显压力。铝价内强外弱，现货进口利润48 ...

Group 1 - Oil stocks experienced a general increase, with CNOOC (00883) rising by 3.88%, PetroChina (00857) increasing by 1.94%, CNOOC Services (02883) up by 1.15%, and Sinopec (00386) gaining 0.65% [1][1][1] - Geopolitical factors, particularly Saudi Arabia's airstrikes in Yemen, have heightened risks in the Middle East, contributing to rising oil prices [1][1][1] - New York crude oil prices reached $58.08 per barrel, marking an increase of nearly 2.4%, while London Brent crude oil prices rose to $61.94 per barrel, up by 2.1% [1][1][1]

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘不确定性 VS 供给过剩，油价区间震荡。地缘：南美、中东地缘不确 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 定性上升，油价反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+ | | ★ | | 仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存 | | | | 均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化， | | | | 俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 油价受中东地缘扰动，短线反弹，中长期承压。成本端原油，短线有所反 | | LPG | 空头反弹 | 弹，大趋势仍向下，成本端偏弱；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升， | | ★ | | PDH 开工率升至 75%，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环 | | | | 比下降。 | | | | 短期跟随市场情绪波动为主。基本面供需双弱，检修降负不足，LL 加权毛 | | L | | 利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期检修难度 | | | 空头反弹 | 相对 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports about industry investment ratings. Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts such as the US - Ukraine meeting and Saudi's air - strikes in Yemen bring geopolitical premiums to oil prices, while the short - term cease - fire is difficult, which restricts Russia's oil production and export [1]. - Precious metals have a significant decline recently. Although supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, the large increase driven by funds has accumulated risks, and exchanges have adjusted margins and trading restrictions [2]. - Different metals and energy products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper shows tight supply in 2026 Q1, while aluminum's follow - up rise lacks fundamental drive [3][4]. - Agricultural products' prices are affected by factors like weather, supply, and demand. For instance, South American weather impacts soybean prices, and domestic policies and procurement affect domestic soybean prices [34][37]. - Building materials and chemical products' prices are also influenced by supply - demand relationships and policies. For example, PVC has a high - supply and low - demand pattern, and polypropylene's demand is weak [27][26]. Summary by Categories Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper decreased in position to 96,000. It has priced in the tight supply of copper concentrates in 2026, especially Q1. The domestic spot discount has widened, and the SMM social inventory has increased to 214,800 tons. Hold an option combination of selling a call option with a strike price of 104,000 and buying a put option with a strike price of 98,000 [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, precious metals' sharp decline led to a fall in non - ferrous metals. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the rise, with weak fundamental drive, poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Long positions should be held with the 40 - day line as support, and the trend may adjust if it breaks [4]. - **Zinc**: TC continues to decline, refineries' production cuts continue, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased by 13,000 tons to 111,900 tons. The supply - side pressure has weakened, but consumption is in the off - season. The price of Shanghai zinc may fluctuate between 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [6]. - **Nickel**: The price of Shanghai nickel has adjusted. The quota of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026 will be reduced to 2.5 billion tons, and the mineral benchmark price formula will be modified. The short - term market is dominated by policy sentiment, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Tin**: Overnight, the weighted position of Shanghai tin decreased, and it may continue to fall towards the long - term moving average. It is recommended to hold a call option with a strike price of 350,000 and observe the adjustment range [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It has a limit - down. The futures price is in a strong - side shock, but above 120,000 yuan, it deviates from the fundamentals, and it is short - term bearish [10]. Energy - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors support prices in the short term, but do not change the supply - surplus situation. Low - sulfur supply is affected by overseas refinery operations, and the demand for ship fuel is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak - side operation [20]. - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment has been below 400,000 tons. The geopolitical conflict may bring a phased rebound, but it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern due to supply - demand looseness [21]. Building Materials - **Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil)**: The night - session steel prices fluctuated. Rebar's apparent demand decreased in the off - season, while hot - rolled coil's demand recovered. The supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the price may fluctuate in a range [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment has increased, and the domestic arrival volume may increase in the future. With the iron - making water production likely at the bottom, there is support for the short - term price, but it is expected to fluctuate [14]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The prices of both fluctuated downward. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience, but the pressure on raw material prices remains. The price may face fundamental pressure after correcting the premium or discount [15][16]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol market is strong. The port inventory increased last week, but it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle in the medium - term. It is advisable to pay attention to the 5 - 9 spread positive arbitrage [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - session oil price rebounded, and the pure benzene price slightly declined. The port inventory is high, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. It is advisable to consider the spread positive arbitrage in the medium - term [24]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The demand support for the market is weak. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand for polypropylene is also weak [26]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: South American weather improves, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate at the bottom [34]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn in Northeast China and North Ports is strong. The cold weather makes farmers reluctant to sell. The price of Dalian corn futures may oscillate strongly in the short - term [38]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs increased over the weekend. The short - term price may remain strong, but there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [39]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is in a low - level oscillation. The 2 - month contract may be weak, while the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be relatively strong [40]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton decreased yesterday. Although the new cotton production increased this year, the commercial inventory is low, and the sales progress is fast. The price shows an oscillating and strong trend [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the US sugar faces pressure. The production progress in Guangxi is slow, and the Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded, but the rebound may be limited [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillates. The cold - storage trading is scarce, and the market demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to maintain a bearish view [43]. Others - **Shipping (Container Freight Index - Europe Line)**: The current spot freight rate is around $2900/FEU. Before the Spring Festival, the freight rate may first rise and then fall. The market will become clearer after the release of the opening - cabin price in mid - January [19]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp price dropped significantly yesterday. The short - term rise is limited by weak downstream demand. The port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [45]. - **Stock Index**: A - share indices were mixed yesterday, and stock index futures closed down. In a loose liquidity and strong - RMB environment, A - shares are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to track the rotation opportunities of different sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures generally closed down on December 29, 2025. The short - end has strong certainty, and it is advisable to participate in the curve - steepening strategy in the short - term [47].