Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with a slight decline in late - May due to some steel mill maintenance. The weekly output of rebar decreased from 2.33 million tons to 2.2 million tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased from 3.19 million tons to 3.29 million tons. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions [3][14]. - Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand weakened, and plate demand was weak. Real estate investment was sluggish, and infrastructure was stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry was in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances weakened. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, with steel exports increasing by 8.2% year - on - year from January to April, but the new export order index in May shrank to 42% [3]. - In the next month, steel prices will face continuous pressure. Terminal real estate investment will continue to decline, and due to poor data on new housing starts and construction areas, combined with seasonal patterns, the apparent demand for construction materials will decline. The domestic manufacturing industry will continue to contract, the demand for automobiles and home appliances will slow down, and overseas tariff impacts will lead to weak demand for hot - rolled coils. Overall, steel demand will face both internal and external pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In May, the steel market was under pressure and declined. After the May Day holiday, steel prices rose and then fell, with weak supply and demand. The blast furnace operating rate remained high, and electric furnaces reduced production due to losses. The demand side was suppressed by the decline in real estate investment. On May 12, the Sino - US tariff negotiation reached an agreement, boosting market sentiment, but the steel price rebound was short - lived. In the second half of the month, steel prices broke through downward after narrow - range fluctuations. Weak reality (declining off - season demand) and weak expectations (weak real estate + export pressure), combined with high supply and cost loosening, drove steel prices down. In June, supply - demand contradictions may further accumulate [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel mills' production is stable, and supply pressure remains high - From January to April, China's pig iron, crude steel, and steel production were 288.85 million tons, 345.35 million tons, and 480.21 million tons respectively, with cumulative year - on - year increases of 0.8%, 0.4%, and 6%. In April, crude steel production decreased by 7.3% month - on - month due to blast furnace maintenance and weak demand. In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with blast furnace hot metal production remaining at around 2.44 million tons per day. The average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was about 2.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.08%; the weekly output of five major steel products was 8.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The production structure was differentiated, with long - process better than short - process. Electric furnace losses increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.2% to 33.8% [14]. 2.2 Steel inventory reduction slowed down, and factory inventory increased - In May, steel inventory continued to decline, but the decline narrowed. The absolute inventory was at a historical low, and the differentiation between varieties intensified. As of June 5, the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.64 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 million tons), the social inventory was 9.31 million tons (a decrease of 0.92 million tons), and the factory inventory was 4.33 million tons (an increase of 0.09 million tons). After the May delivery, the number of warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil will gradually enter the accumulation cycle [19]. 2.3 Demand enters the off - season, and pressure increases - Construction steel demand is weak and entering the off - season. Real estate investment is sluggish, and infrastructure is stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry is in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances are weak. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, and subsequent exports are under pressure [22]. 2.4 External risks still exist - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. Real estate investment continued to decline, and housing steel - using indicators continued to decline significantly. Infrastructure investment grew steadily, with the issuance of special bonds accelerating. In May, manufacturing steel - using showed internal differentiation and weakening external demand. Steel exports faced short - term pressure relief but were still blocked in the medium term. From January to April 2025, China's cumulative steel imports were 2.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%, and cumulative exports were 37.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [28][31][46]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply side: In May, steel production was stable at a high level. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions. - Demand side: Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand will weaken, and plate demand will be weak. Overall, steel demand will continue to face double pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [48][51].

证券研究报告 固收 半年末债市的三个关注点 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 08 日│中国内地 利率周报 报告核心观点 上周央行通过政策工具释放呵护信号，叠加大行积极增持短端利率债，市场 做多情绪回暖，终结了 5 月底的震荡下跌走势，短端利率下行带动长端利率 走低，曲线陡峭化。展望半年末时点，关税与基本面演绎、资金面及银行等 机构行为值得关注。预计短期中美关税谈判小幅抬升风险偏好，基本面对债 市仍有支撑；资金面冲击幅度有限，仍需提防资金分层与时点冲击；大行持 续买短债或助推曲线走陡，半年末银行兑现 OCI 浮盈券或无需过度担忧。 整体上，债市多空力量相对均衡，或难打破震荡格局，建议适度博弈曲线陡 峭化等。本周关注中美关税谈判、5 月通胀数据、贸易数据、金融数据。 关注点一：从关税谈判进展到基本面高频数据 特朗普就任以来，市场对中美关税预期波动剧烈。去年底与今年四月初，市 场情绪相对悲观，二月则过度乐观，当前市场情绪相对乐观，但整体已较为 钝化。展望未来，尽管特朗普关税政策充满不确定性，但其背后逻辑逐渐清 晰，市场反应将更趋钝化。上周两国领导人通话，关税谈判进入第二阶段， 期待本周关税谈判有积极进展，风险偏好略 ...

策略点评 证券研究报告 市场情绪回暖，重新关注科技方向 财信证券宏观策略周报（6.9-6.13） 2025 年 06 月 08 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -12% -2% 8% 18% 28% 2024-06 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 05-27 3 房地产市场高频数据周报（05.19-05.25）2025- 05-27 投资要点 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 房地产市场高频数据周报（06.02-06.08）2025- 06-04 2 房地产市场高频数据周报（05.26-06.01）2025- 上周（6.2-6.6)股指表现为，上证指数上涨 1.13%，收报 3385.36 点，深证成 指上涨 1.42%，收报 10183.7 点，中小 100 上涨 1.62%，创业板指上涨 2.32%； 行业板块方面，通信、有色金属、电子涨幅居前；沪深两市日均成交额为 11842.1 亿元，沪深两市成交额较前一周上升 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 06 月 08 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 研究助理：孙文婷 邮箱：sunwenting1@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】如何发展服务消费？中国服 务消费的特征事实、制约因素和提振路径》 2025-06-02 《【粤开宏观】"十五五"时期中国财政政 策展望：财政政策转型的必要性与可能路 径》2025-05-27 《【粤开宏观】化债成绩、挑战及建议—— 基于对 2025 年地方化债部署的分析》 2025-05-20 《【粤开宏观】关税冲击的宏观时滞与微观 分化——4 月经济数据解读》2025-05-19 《【粤开宏观】中美互降关税：为何要降？ 还有哪些没解决？未来会如何？》 2025-05-12 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】中美关税博弈下一步： 特朗普的底气与约束 摘要 6 月 5 日，中美元首开启特朗普本届任期执政以来 ...

美国新任驻华大使庞德伟今年5月上旬抵京履职，上任还不到一个月，就获得了王毅外长的会见。这一 速度有些出人意料，因为对比起来，前任大使伯恩斯2022年上任后，足足坐了7个多月的冷板凳才见到 王毅外长，对比实在悬殊。这一会见固然是程序安排，但在中美关税"休战"背景下，恐怕也有一定的深 意。 美财长贝森特提议中美高层会面 一边施加压力，一边威胁恐吓，这是谈判的姿态吗？有记者就此事询问外交部发言人，发言人林剑也不 想多费口舌，只用一句话就打发了：中方已多次阐明在关税问题上的立场，具体问题建议向中方的主管 部门询问。 正是基于美方的所作所为，王毅外长强调，当下中美关系正处于关键路口，对话合作是唯一正确选择， 而美方需为双边关系重回正确轨道创造必要条件。 什么是"必要条件"？停止对华威逼利诱，停止假话连篇，拿出对话诚意。王毅短短几句话，既包含对过 去中美合作的认可，更暗含对美方近期行为的不满，以及期望美方做出正确改变。 王毅外长会见美国新任驻华大使 会谈桌上，王毅外长的话语清晰而有力。他首先肯定了上个月中美在日内瓦达成的经贸共识，强调中方 始终认真、严格地在落实这些协议。这句话不只是客套，它点出了一个重要事实：在关税"休 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the fluctuating tariff policies between the US and China since February 2025, highlighting the impact on Chinese businesses and their operational adjustments in response to these changes [1][2][5] - A timeline of tariff increases is provided, showing a cumulative increase of tariffs on Chinese goods reaching 104% by April 8, 2025, with significant changes in tax policies for small packages [2][5] - The article emphasizes the complexity of the international trade chain, particularly the uncertainties in international shipping due to fluctuating freight rates and geopolitical risks [6][8] Group 2 - The article outlines the implications of tariffs on different trade models, particularly the FOB (Free on Board) model, where the burden of tariff costs primarily falls on the purchasing party, affecting pricing strategies for Chinese manufacturers [8][11] - It highlights the challenges faced by small cross-border sellers due to changes in policies regarding international small packages, which are crucial for their operations [11][12] - The article notes that despite the tariff pressures, China's overall trade performance remains strong, with a 5.6% increase in total trade value in April 2025, indicating resilience in other markets [17][18] Group 3 - The article discusses potential new markets for Chinese brands, particularly in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Arab region, emphasizing the need for localization and understanding of cultural nuances [19][24][30] - It highlights the importance of deep localization strategies in Southeast Asia, where local regulations and market conditions require significant adaptation from Chinese companies [24][25] - The article points out the emerging opportunities in the Latin American market, particularly in Mexico, due to favorable trade agreements, while also noting the cultural barriers that need to be addressed [26][29] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the shift from low-cost strategies to high-quality manufacturing for Chinese products, suggesting that companies should focus on building brand value and sustainable pricing models [36][37] - It discusses the growing global interest in Chinese manufacturing, particularly in the 3C electronics sector, and the potential for cultural products and trendy items to succeed in international markets [40][41] - The article concludes with a call for companies to focus on long-term strategies and building strong brand identities rather than seeking quick profits, highlighting the importance of cultural understanding and product value [45][46]

2025 年 6 月 6 日 商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：基本面疲弱，关注中美关税修复的可能性 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | 2507合约（收盘价） | | 60,100 | -980 | -280 | -1,000 | -5,860 | -16,380 | | 2507合约（成交量） | | 244,592 | -168,647 | -143,548 | -25,582 | 130,054 | 234,960 | | 2507合约（持仓量） | | 231,588 | -14,062 | -52,019 | ...

登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -15% -10% -4% 1% 6% 12% 17% 22% 2024.06 2024.10 2025.02 2025.06 上证指数 深证成指 分析师：张刚 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 06 月 06 日 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,384.10 | 0.23 | | 深证成指 | | 10,203.50 | 0.58 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,877.56 | 0.23 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,698.59 | 0.21 | | 中证 | 500 ...

姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年6月5日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 1.1 沙特OSP 沙特7月官价以及近期油价一览 资料来源：Bloomberg 远东（vs Oman/Dubai） 美国（vs ASCI） 地中海（vs Brent） 欧洲（vs Brent） -5 0 5 10 15 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 特轻 轻质 中质 重质 -10 -5 0 5 10 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 特轻 轻质 中质 重质 0 5 10 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 特轻 轻质 中质 重质 -10 -5 0 5 10 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 特轻 轻质 中质 重质 | 沙特OSP | | 7月 | 6月 | 变化值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 至亚洲(对阿曼/迪拜) | | | | | 超轻 | 1 . | 7 ...

Core Insights - The May 2023 China Commodity Price Index (CCPI) stands at 110.3 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.2% [1][3] - The index indicates a stabilization trend in commodity prices, with specific sectors showing varied performance, such as a slight increase in non-ferrous metal prices and a rebound in chemical prices [1][6] Price Index Summary - The non-ferrous price index rose to 127.7 points, up 0.9% month-on-month but down 5.2% year-on-year [3][4] - The agricultural product price index increased to 98.2 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][4] - The chemical price index rebounded to 102.8 points, up 0.5% month-on-month but down 13.7% year-on-year [3][4] - The black metal price index fell to 78.7 points, down 0.8% month-on-month and down 11.4% year-on-year [3][4] - The energy price index decreased to 96.3 points, down 2.1% month-on-month and down 14.9% year-on-year [3][4] - The mineral price index dropped to 75.6 points, down 2.2% month-on-month and down 8.3% year-on-year [3][4] Commodity Price Movements - Among 50 monitored commodities, 32 (64%) saw price declines while 17 (34%) experienced price increases [4][6] - The top three commodities with price increases were PTA (up 9.5%), ethylene glycol (up 4.6%), and corn (up 4.3%) [4][6] - The largest price declines were observed in industrial silicon (down 10.2%), lithium carbonate (down 10%), and soybean meal (down 9.9%) [4][6] Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the rise in non-ferrous prices to improved demand expectations due to easing US-China tariff policies [5][6] - The agricultural price index's increase is linked to stable downstream consumer demand, with corn prices rising due to increased market demand and short-term supply constraints [6][7] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to persistent external uncertainties and insufficient effective demand in certain sectors [1][7]