中美关税联合声明公布！黄金日内跌幅100美元！欧美盘应看到哪些位置？交易学院正在直播，点击立 即观看>>> 相关链接 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate within a wide range, with the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract likely to remain around the 20,000 level in the short term. The market anticipates that the US may choose to ease policies and tariff confrontation with China before the US debt matures in June, which will limit the downside of aluminum prices. However, the transmission of domestic favorable policies takes time, and the market has strong expectations of weakening demand due to the change of seasons, the end of PV rush installation, and the decline in export orders, which will reduce the upward momentum of aluminum prices [5][13]. - The supply of bauxite is expected to increase in May, and the market may achieve a re - balance of supply and demand after July, with the price center expected to stabilize in the range of $70 - 75 per dry ton. The alumina market has a shortage due to maintenance, and the spot supply is tight, with a possible increase in spot prices in the future. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9%, and the import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss, but the export volume is expected to gradually recover [10]. - The operating rates of different downstream aluminum processing sectors show a differentiated pattern. The overall operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is expected to rise slightly next week. The inventory of aluminum ingots may continue to rise in May, while the destocking speed of aluminum rods has significantly narrowed [12][25][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 19,000 - 21,000. The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract may have a slight rebound next week and generally remain around the 20,000 level [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: It was expected that Shanghai Aluminum would remain around the 20,000 level, and it was recommended to wait and see [7]. - This week's strategy: It is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level. The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract is temporarily seen in the range of 19,500 - 20,000, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. - Hedging suggestions for spot enterprises: It is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [9]. Overall Viewpoint Bauxite Market - The supply of domestic bauxite has slightly improved compared with the previous period, and the overall supply of imported bauxite can basically meet the downstream demand. The bauxite supply is expected to continue to increase in May, and the market may achieve supply - demand re - balance after July, with the price center stabilizing at $70 - 75 per dry ton [10]. Alumina Market - As of May 8, the built - in alumina production capacity in China was 110.6 million tons, the operating capacity was 86.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.25%. Due to maintenance and production cuts of alumina enterprises, the market spot supply is tight, and there may be a rise in spot prices [10]. Production of Electrolytic Aluminum - The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 43.835 million tons, remaining stable compared with last week. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [10]. Import and Export - The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,500 yuan per ton, showing a slight expansion in the past two weeks. The export volume in May is expected to decline month - on - month, but it is expected to gradually recover through supply chain reconstruction and tariff cost sharing mechanisms [10]. Demand - The operating rates of different downstream sectors show a differentiated pattern. The operating rate of profiles decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%; the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased; the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points to 55.2%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum increased by 2.5 percentage points to 55.0% [12]. Inventory - The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 619,000 tons, an increase of about 1% compared with last week and about 20% lower than the same period last year. The inventory may continue to rise in May. The inventory of aluminum rods is 150,100 tons, a decrease of about 2% compared with last week and about 27% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been falling slightly since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990, but there may be an inflection point [12]. Profit and Market Expectation - The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan per ton, and the profit is about 300 yuan per ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,100 yuan per ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,500 yuan per ton. The aluminum price is expected to rise slightly next week, with an average price of about 19,700 [13]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of most aluminum - related products have changed. For example, the price of bauxite has generally declined, the price of alumina in Henan has increased slightly, and the price of electrolytic aluminum has decreased [14]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for the fourth consecutive week, the alumina inventory has slightly decreased, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased, the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly [16][18]. Supply - Demand Situation - The profits of domestic alumina and electrolytic aluminum industries this week are about 300 yuan per ton and 2,500 yuan per ton respectively. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,500 yuan per ton [20]. - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%, showing a differentiated pattern. The operating rate is expected to rise slightly next week [25][26]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum futures is neutral. The market is bearish on the demand in the second and third quarters but expects a rebound in demand at the end of the year [32]. Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a discount of $9.4 per ton. The A00 aluminum ingot spot is at a discount of 0 yuan per ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 3,190 yuan per ton [34][36]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of LME aluminum has slightly rebounded, and the short - term overseas aluminum price is under pressure. The net long position of Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum has also slightly increased, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile [40][43].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美互加大额关税。3月纺织业景气指数回升至52.47%荣枯线上方。 USDA:4月消费调低，库存增加，略偏空。ICAC:4月报预测环比上月增加产量，消费不 变，期末库存略增，略偏空。海关：3月纺织品服装出口同比增12.4%。3月份我国棉花 进口7万吨，同比减少81.4%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比减少31%。农村部4月24/25年度： 产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14183，基差1433（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存 ...

Group 1 - Company bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.06% to a latest price of 105.57 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.15% over the past six months as of April 29, 2025 [3] - The liquidity of the company bond ETF showed a turnover of 0.85% with a transaction volume of 113 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past month was 1.802 billion yuan [3] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 13.258 billion yuan, with the latest share count at 12.6 million, marking a new high in the past month [3] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI data from Huaxi Securities on April 30 and the central bank's announcement of a buyout repurchase scale may act as catalysts for market volatility [4] - High-frequency data suggests that enterprises may be transitioning from "grabbing exports" to "grabbing trans-exports," indicating a potential for manufacturing sentiment to exceed market expectations [4] Group 3 - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) showed a mixed market with a latest quote of 117.39 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.04% over the past month as of April 29, 2025 [7] - The liquidity of the national debt ETF indicated a turnover of 3.77% with a transaction volume of approximately 55.33 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past week was 470 million yuan [7] - The latest scale of the national debt ETF reached 1.47 billion yuan, marking a new high in the past three months [7] Group 4 - The national development bond ETF (159651) increased by 0.03% to a latest price of 105.91 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 2.36% over the past year as of April 29, 2025 [10] - The liquidity of the national development bond ETF showed a turnover of 3.98% with a transaction volume of approximately 54.41 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past year was 617 million yuan [10] - The national development bond ETF experienced a significant growth in scale by 388 million yuan over the past six months, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [10] Group 5 - The three main members of the Ping An Fund bond ETF include the company bond ETF (511030), national development bond ETF (159651), and national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020), covering various types of bonds to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate has been on a downward trend. In May, demand remains stable as the slight increase in power demand is offset by the decline in energy storage demand. Supply is expected to increase slightly as some smelters resume production, leading to an expansion of the surplus and a potential new high in inventory. The price is likely to test the support level of 65,000 yuan, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [4][77]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: After reaching a high of 81,000 yuan before the Spring Festival, the price of lithium carbonate has dropped by 15%, with the lowest point below 68,000 yuan. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival in April, it gapped down and then fluctuated weakly, reaching a minimum of 67,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Demand Side**: Sino - US tariffs have affected the US new - energy vehicle market and supply chain, potentially damaging the orders of ternary cathode factories with high export ratios in China. The procurement of lithium carbonate for energy storage due to the "531" rush has ended in March, and energy storage orders are weakening. In April, cathode factories' production increased slightly month - on - month, but their purchasing was restrained [3]. - **Supply Side**: In April, production first increased and then decreased. Some smelters conducted annual maintenance, and some reduced production due to a lack of (low - price) ores or losses. The price of Australian ores has fallen below $800/ton, and the market expects it to drop to $750/ton. Although domestic supply in April may be lower than the previous production plan, it still increased by thousands of tons compared to March [3]. - **Inventory and Market Conditions**: SMM social inventory increased slightly despite production cuts, indicating weak demand. The price volatility has decreased, reducing the arbitrage opportunities. The spot basis has strengthened, and holders are more inclined to sell spot goods [4]. - **Outlook for May**: Demand remains stable as the slight increase in power demand is offset by the decline in energy storage demand. Supply will increase as some smelters resume production, and the surplus will expand, with inventory expected to first decrease and then increase, reaching a new high [4]. 2. Market Tracking - **Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread Changes**: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival in April, the price gapped down and fluctuated weakly. The volatility has decreased, reducing the arbitrage opportunities for cross - period and spot - futures traders. The spot basis has strengthened, and holders are less willing to register warehouse receipts [10]. - **Upstream Lithium Ore Price and Import Profit and Loss Trends**: The price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by $20/ton (3.2%), and the price of mica ore decreased by 180 yuan/ton (10.2%). Smelter production cuts have forced upstream mines to lower prices, leading to a spiral decline in lithium salt and lithium ore prices [19]. - **Downstream Cathode Material Price Trends**: Tariffs have little impact on China's new - energy vehicle exports but affect the export of energy storage systems and lithium batteries. Some ternary cathode material enterprises in China have suspended raw material procurement to deal with potential risks [22]. 3. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **April: Weak Seasonal Features with Slight Growth** - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 478,000, a 20% year - on - year increase but an 11% month - on - month decrease. The global new - energy vehicle market in 2025 (January - February) showed a slowdown in growth in Europe and the US. China's new - energy vehicle exports increased significantly from January - March, and the news of the EU potentially replacing tariffs with a minimum price may boost exports to Europe [34][35]. - **Energy Storage**: The "531" rush for energy storage procurement has ended, and the demand for lithium carbonate has weakened. After the Sino - US tariff increase in April, some enterprises suspended exports and renegotiated prices. The market has different views on future demand [45]. - **Cathode Factories**: The production of power and energy storage cells in China from January - March increased significantly year - on - year. In May, the production of ternary cathode materials is expected to increase by about 1,000 tons, while the demand for lithium iron phosphate may decline as the increase in power demand is offset by the decrease in energy storage demand [50][51]. - **May: Slight Increase in Lithium Carbonate Supply** - **Lithium Ore Price and Cost**: Third - party institutions predict that the ore price will fall to below $750/ton. The cost of large integrated mines is decreasing, and African mines are the most profitable source of outsourced ores. The logistics cost of African mines is expected to decline [58]. - **Domestic Smelters**: In April, at least 6 smelters planned or carried out maintenance and production cuts, affecting a production volume of over 5,000 tons. In May, more than half of the enterprises undergoing annual maintenance will resume production, and some small and medium - sized enterprises are waiting for the ore price to fall. The import volume of lithium carbonate in May is expected to increase, and the total domestic supply will increase slightly [63][64]. - **Excess Re - Expands, Price Fluctuates Weakly**: In April, the weekly inventory increased, indicating weak demand. As of April 24, the SMM social inventory of lithium carbonate was 131,800 tons, and it is expected to reach a new high in May. The supply pressure will become more apparent from May, and the price of the main contract 2507 may test the support level of 65,000 yuan. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [77].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉下跌 1.8%，报收 67.56 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 0.46%，报收 12950 元 | 震荡 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 1706 手至 56.93 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13988 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日持平，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14244 元/吨，较前一日上涨 | | | | 10 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍有扰动，特朗普消息不断且变向较快， | | | | 美元指数重心先升后降，美棉价格承压下行，持续关注宏观层面变化。国内市场方 | | | | 面，郑棉期价整体仍维持震荡走势。展望未来，我们认为短期郑棉下方有一定支 | | | | 撑，原因有以下几点：一是中美关税税率较此前再度恶化空间不大，二是新棉种植 | | | | 期，国内棉花种植面积较此前预估或小幅下降，未来天气若有扰动则是利多，三是 | | | | 对未来国内宏观政策的预期。综上，我们认为短期郑棉 ...

央行官员表示，将按照中央政治局会议精神，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足适度宽松的 货币政策，根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降息。 人社部官员表示，将加快推出增量政策，对企业加大扩岗支持，对个人加大就业补贴支持，对受关税影 响较大的企业提高失业保险稳岗返还比例等。 商务部官员表示，将聚焦广大企业需求，及时解决困难问题，以钉钉子精神抓好已经出台的稳外贸政策 落地见效。 每经记者 郑步春 每经编辑 彭水萍 周一A股表现稍弱，各大股指普跌，全市场超4100个股下跌。截至收盘，上证综指跌0.2%至3288.41 点；深综指跌0.93%，创业板综指跌1.01%，科创50指数跌0.17%，北证50指数跌1.78%。全A总成交额 为10768亿元，较上周五的11370亿元略有萎缩。 银行、钢铁、电力等红利股表现较好，PEEK材料、游戏、珠宝首饰、培育钻石等板块表现也相对较 好。旅游酒店、食品饮料、乳业等消费类个股表现较弱，房地产板块也普跌。 周一上午国新办举行新闻发布会，发改委官员表示，更好发挥内需主动力作用，具体思路和方法也非常 明确，就是增加中低收入群体收入、大力提振消费，扩大有效投资，做强国内 ...

观点：聚酯开工仍有韧性，驱动不足 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 戴一帆（Z0015428） 周燕勤（F03129302） 周嘉伟（F03133676） 聚酯周报观点 MEG 核心观点：驱动不足，区间震荡 南华聚酯周报20250427 【库存】华东港口库至77.5万吨，环比上期增加0.4万吨。 【装置】中石化武汉28w近期停车，预计持续半个月；内蒙古建元26w近期重启；内蒙古兖矿40w近期重启； 【观点】 本周EG价格在需求悲观与关税豁免消息扰动下低位震荡。基本面方面，供应端油降煤升，总负荷小幅上调至68.47%（+3.15%）；其中 ，乙烯制方面茂名石化、天沙停车；煤制兖矿、榆林化学、中昆提负，煤制负荷大幅上调至63.85%（+14%）。效益方面，受绝对价格 小幅反弹影响，各路线利润小幅修复。库存方面，本周到港集中，港口发货表现不佳，维持刚需，下周一港口显性库存预计大幅累库8 万吨左右。需求端，长丝开工下调，短纤瓶片提负，聚酯总负荷维持高位93.6%（-0.2%）。长丝节前存在促销行为，终端部分刚需采 购低位补货，长丝库存小幅去化，但FDY和DTY环节库存压力仍然明显。终端受关税事件影响， ...

期货研究报告|PX&PTA&PF&PR 周报 2025-04-27 5-9 月差走强，关注五一织造放假情况 策略摘要 基本面方面，特朗普对中国关税态度有所缓和，但问题依旧没有有效解决，直接出口 美国的纺服订单依然处于暂停状态，聚酯减产预期压制市场心态，关注后续中美谈判 情况，PX 和 PTA 依然维持低估值和去库状态，但在汽油弱势和需求预期偏弱的情况下 反弹幅度也有限，近期关注原油和宏观变动。短纤方面，当前美国关税逐步向好发 展，市场心态走稳，但追高意愿不足，五一期间部分纱厂有放假计划，原料囤货意愿 一般，行情维持震荡盘整。PR 方面，关税政策对瓶片自身需求影响较小，但瓶片负荷 回归高位，瓶片工厂加工区间有限，市场价格预计仍跟随原料成本波动。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 成本端，原油价格先涨后跌。当前供需面多空消息交织，一方面宏观影响油价走势。 美伊及俄乌地缘政治风险降温。同时多个 OPEC+成员国计划在 6 月会议上提议加快增 产速度，原油供应压力持续；不过下半周特朗普表示不会解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，市 场恐慌指数回落，同时也表示将对中国关税大幅下降，宏观情绪改善推动油价反弹。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解偏弱运行， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, highlighting recent statements from Trump and other officials that suggest a shift in policy direction towards more constructive negotiations [1]. Group 1: Trade Relations - Trump expressed a desire for the U.S.-China trade war to be unsustainable, indicating that both sides do not view the current situation as viable [3]. - Bessent stated at a private investor summit that the trade war is not sustainable and that negotiations with China may be a "hard battle" but are necessary [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - Trump called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and expressed no intention to dismiss Fed Chairman Powell, urging for more proactive measures regarding interest rates [2]. - The White House Press Secretary Levitt mentioned that Trump wants the U.S. dollar to maintain its status as the world's reserve currency [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following these statements, the U.S. dollar and stock market experienced a rebound, with futures continuing to rise post-market [1]. - The article suggests that with the current high tariffs and effective embargoes, the situation may only improve from here, hinting at potential investment opportunities [1].