Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company achieved the highest first-quarter lithium sales volumes in its history, with a 20% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle market in China and Europe [7] - Average realized prices for lithium in Q2 2025 are expected to be lower than in Q1 2025 due to recent price declines [8][57] - The iodine business experienced record average prices amid tight supply and steady demand, particularly for X-ray contrast media applications [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lithium sales volumes increased significantly, while the potassium business saw a reduction in volumes as part of a strategy to prioritize high lithium content brines [11] - Specialty Plant Nutrition (SPN) sales volumes grew at a healthy pace, with an upward trend in prices due to strong demand for potassium chloride [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company maintains a view that global lithium demand will grow by 17% in 2025, with SQM's sales expected to grow by 15% year-on-year [29][62] - The market is currently experiencing oversupply, but long-term demand is expected to remain strong, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [62][88] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding lithium production capacity to 240,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate and 100,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide [9] - Investment in operational efficiencies and capacity expansions is ongoing, with a commitment to sustainable growth [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the lithium market, despite current pricing pressures [12][88] - The company believes that the current low price environment is unsustainable and anticipates a recovery in prices in the near future [84][86] Other Important Information - The dividend policy established by the board is to distribute 30% of net income for 2025, with no interim dividends planned for the first quarter [48] - The Mt. Holland project is cash positive even at current prices, with ongoing ramp-up efforts [82] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for operating cash flow in Q2 - Management does not expect to be close to breakeven in Q2 and anticipates being significantly above that [15][16] Question: Impact of lower lithium prices on capital structure - The company has a strong balance sheet and does not foresee financial constraints affecting future projects [19] Question: Current political noise in Chile regarding Codelco JV - Management described the situation as "noise" and confirmed that the transaction is progressing as planned [22][26] Question: Lithium sales growth forecast - The company has not updated its annual volume forecast but expects similar or slightly lower volumes in Q2 compared to Q1 [30] Question: Pricing dynamics in China - The company has various pricing mechanisms with customers, and specific details cannot be disclosed [36] Question: CapEx requirements for growth plans - The CapEx plan will be reviewed and shared with the market in the upcoming months [53] Question: Production costs and expectations - The company expects to reduce operational costs and maintain cost leadership in the market [78] Question: Outlook for Mt. Holland project - The Mt. Holland operation is cash positive, and the project is on track despite higher costs during ramp-up [82][93]

5 月 28 日山东德州报价 2.9 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.2 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期随着端午临近，鸡蛋性价比尚可，终端消费预计增加，渠道及 下游采购需求或增加，叠加淘汰有所加速，缓解供应压力，预计对蛋价形成 支撑，不过 5 月新开产量较大，供应压力仍较大，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存 储，节后进入梅雨季节，渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体 端午节日有利好，但高供应叠加天气，蛋价走势承压。中期来看，25 年 2- 4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前 期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远 期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长期来看，经过上半年养殖利润 不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季度新开产或环比减少，关注三 季度换羽淘汰及鸡病情况。短期端午节提振，蛋价存支撑，不过供应较为充 足叠加需求转弱，蛋价走势承压，三季度供需双增，区间操作为主，四季度 供应压力或有所缓解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月 后限仓，谨慎追空，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 饲料养殖 ...

Group 1: Understanding Market Positions - The distinction between bulls and bears is essential, where bulls believe in rising stock indices and buy futures, while bears expect declines and sell futures [1] - An increase in short positions indicates that bears expect further declines, leading to more sold futures [1] Group 2: Indicators of Short Position Increase - Monitoring changes in open interest can signal short position increases; a rising open interest suggests bears are adding to their positions [2] - Price trends are crucial; if indices are falling while open interest rises, it likely indicates bears are increasing their positions [3] - Market sentiment influenced by news or policy changes can also indicate a higher likelihood of short position increases [4] Group 3: Indicators of Long Position Increase - Similar to short positions, an increase in open interest can suggest bulls are adding to their positions, which should be analyzed alongside price trends [6] - If indices are rising and open interest is increasing, it likely indicates bulls are increasing their positions [7] - Trading volume is a significant indicator; increased volume alongside rising prices suggests a higher probability of long position increases [8] - Market sentiment and technical indicators can also signal long position increases, such as bullish sentiment or technical signals like moving averages crossing [9] Group 4: Summary of Key Indicators - The primary indicators for assessing both long and short position increases are trading volume, open interest, and price trends [10] - Signals for long position increases include rising markets, increased trading volume, and rising open interest [11] - Conversely, signals for short position increases include falling markets, increased trading volume, and rising open interest [12]

行业 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 5 月 22 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On May 20, the commodity market showed mixed results with aluminum oxide leading the gains, up 1.42%, while industrial silicon and other chemicals experienced declines of over 1% [2][4] - The China Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1354.74 points, a slight increase of 0.03% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Aluminum Oxide Insights - The market is experiencing anxiety over supply due to the suspension of operations at the Axis mine in Guinea, which has led to a temporary price increase for aluminum oxide [2] - Despite the price increase, the overall supply of aluminum oxide remains relatively stable, with a significant increase in China's bauxite imports, which rose 25.62% month-on-month and 45.44% year-on-year in April 2025 [2] Group 3: Oil and Fats Market Analysis - Palm oil futures rose by 1.25%, with expectations of continued expansion in biodiesel production capacity in the U.S. driving demand [3] - Domestic soybean oil faces pressure from an influx of soybeans expected to arrive in the May-July period, which may weaken the basis [3] Group 4: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Trends - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure as demand from downstream sectors like organic silicon and polysilicon declines, despite a recovery in production due to favorable electricity costs [4] - Lithium carbonate prices are nearing 60,000 yuan, with supply pressures persisting and a slow destocking process affecting the market [4]

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 20 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.5-15.1 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳 定；广东 14.7-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。5 月规模企业出栏计划增加， 且生猪体重高位，供应压力累积中，前期二育强势进场，随着部分养殖户加 快出栏节奏，短期供应压力释放。需求端，虽然端午节备货临近，但天气转 热，猪肉消费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求难有明显增量，不 过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关 注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况、体重变化。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，5-9 月供应呈增 加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出 栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价仍有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格 波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the peanut market in China for the 2024/2025 production season, highlighting the reasons for the prolonged stalemate in supply and demand, the impact of natural disasters on production, and the cautious mindset of farmers regarding planting decisions [1][2][4][12]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic demand for peanuts is weak, particularly in the food-grade segment, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude among various market participants. The total sales volume in key distribution areas has decreased by approximately 20% in the 80 days following the 2025 Spring Festival [1]. - The production cost has increased due to lower-than-expected yields, with the average cost of peanut production reaching around 3.0 CNY per jin, while the market price is hovering around 4.1 CNY per jin, providing a psychological support level for prices [2][4]. Market Sentiment and Inventory Pressure - Despite predictions of a peak in farmer sales, there has been no significant selling pressure observed in the market. Current inventory levels are manageable, with approximately 100,000 tons of peanuts in stock across Liaoning province, which is expected to last until August [4]. - The sentiment among farmers is cautious, with many holding back on selling due to the need to maintain prices above their production costs [4][12]. Planting Area and Cost Trends - The planting area for peanuts in traditional regions is expected to stabilize between 80% and 90%, while some peripheral areas may see a slight decrease from 70% to 60-65% [8]. - The average production cost for peanuts in Liaoning province has decreased by approximately 100 CNY per mu compared to the previous year, with seed prices dropping from 5.7-5.8 CNY per jin to around 5.1 CNY per jin [10][8]. Future Outlook - The planting pace for the upcoming season may be slower due to the cautious attitude of farmers, with potential delays in the new crop's market entry. The market may experience tight inventory levels during August and September, which could lead to a price increase above 4.5 CNY per jin [12][13]. - The impact of natural disasters on production is expected to limit the likelihood of significant selling pressure in the Liaoning market, with the focus shifting to the consumption rate of existing inventory and weather conditions affecting the upcoming crop [14].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 15 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.6-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.4-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15.1- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，部分养殖户预计节后出 栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升，二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增 加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏 损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧， 猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁 母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增 加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强 需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库 以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去 化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上限，四季度供应压力仍 大，远 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 2025年5月14日 | | | 王浅辉 | Z0019938 | | | 员拥 | | | | | | 5月13日 | | | 5月12日 | 张庆 | 涨跌幅 | | 8320 | 现价 江苏一级 | | 8270 | 50 | 0.60% | | Y2509 | 期价 | 7952 | 7970 | -18 | -0.23% | | Y2509 | 墓差 | 368 | 300 | ୧୫ | 22.67% | | 09+400 | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 | | 09+390 | 10 | - | | 6370 | 仓車 | | 6370 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | 5月13日 | | | 5月12日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 8670 | 现价 广东24度 | | 8600 | 70 | 0.81% | | P2509 | 期价 | 8324 | 8450 | -126 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market supply and demand is generally loose, and the new US soybean crop is expected to face pressure. The South American market is in the peak supply period, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. In the domestic market, the arrival volume of soybeans is expected to increase, and the supply situation is expected to improve, but there is still some pressure [2][3]. - The raw sugar is affected by the expected high - yield in Brazil and shows a weak trend, but is expected to fluctuate due to the support of buying orders below. The domestic sugar market has a higher sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, driving Zhengzhou sugar to be stronger than raw sugar. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][11]. - The macro - factors will still have a significant impact on the oil market. In the short term, the Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory significantly in April and continue to increase production and accumulate inventory later. The domestic soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate, and the basis may weaken. The domestic rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, and the decline space may be limited [17][20]. - The US corn is sowing faster and is in a bottom - shock state. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot price is still strong, but the increase space may be limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [28][29]. - The recent enthusiasm for hog slaughter is average, but the supply pressure is still reflected due to the increase in slaughter weight. The futures market is expected to face pressure [35]. - The peanut spot trading volume is still small, and the downstream consumption is weak. However, the large - scale oil mills' increased purchases boost the market, and the new - season peanuts in October still have room for rebound [39][43]. - The overall supply of eggs is expected to be sufficient, and the egg price has shown signs of stability recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [49][51]. - The apple cold - storage inventory is at a low level this year, and the supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The demand is okay, and the spot price is strong. The apple price is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger [54][58]. - The short - term supply of cotton is sufficient, and the demand is average. The market has entered the off - season. Considering the uncertainty of global trade policies, especially the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, it is recommended to wait and see [63][66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**：CBOT大豆指数持平于1043.75美分/蒲式耳，CBOT豆粕指数下跌0.67%至297.4美元/短吨[2] - **相关资讯**：预计美国2025/26年度大豆期末库存为3.62亿蒲式耳，产量料为43.38亿蒲式耳；中国4月大豆进口608.1万吨；国际豆粕出口主要供应国出口量转降；截至5月9日当周，油厂大豆实际压榨量184.6万吨，开机率51.89%，大豆库存较上周增加3.3%，同比增加13.28%，豆粕库存较上周增加9.76%，同比减少84.36%[2] - **逻辑分析**：国际市场供需偏宽松，美豆新作有压力，南美处于供应高峰期价格承压；国内大豆到港量增加，油厂开机率恢复，供应好转但仍有压力[3] - **交易策略**：单边偏空思路为主；套利观望；期权卖出宽跨式策略[6] Sugar - **外盘情况**：昨日ICE美糖主力合约上涨0.32（1.83%）至17.82美分/磅[7] - **重要资讯**：截至2025年4月底，本制糖期全国产糖1110.72万吨，同比增加11.59%，销售食糖724.46万吨，同比增加26.07%，销糖率65.22%；印度2025 - 26年度糖产量预计达3500万吨，增长26%；现货方面，部分制糖集团和加工厂报价有调整，后半段成交尚可[8][9][10] - **逻辑分析**：原糖受巴西丰产预期影响偏弱，预计震荡运行；国内产销比高、库存低带动郑糖强于原糖，预计短期震荡运行，关注广西天气[11] - **交易策略**：单边震荡运行，波段操作；套利观望；期权卖出宽跨式期权[12][13][14] Oilseeds and Oils - **外盘情况**：隔夜CBOT美豆油主力价格变动0.25%至48.64美分/磅；BMD马棕油主力价格变动0.37%至3815林吉特/吨，周一马盘休市[16] - **相关资讯**：巴西2024/25年度大豆作物商业化销售达预期产量的57%，较去年同期和历史均值延迟；阿根廷2024/25年度大豆收割率为45%，落后去年同期；加拿大油菜籽出口量增加，库存为120.1万吨；5月9日，油脂总成交环比增加63%[17][18][19] - **逻辑分析**：中美谈判达成共识，宏观因素影响盘面；4月马棕累库明显，后期继续增产累库，中国和印度买船积极性增加；巴西大豆到港，国内油厂压榨量增加，豆油库存累库，基差或走弱；国内菜油供大于求，盘面受国际关系影响反复，下跌空间有限[20] - **交易策略**：单边预计短期油脂震荡运行，豆油和菜油有利多支撑，棕榈油基本面转弱，可轻仓试多博反弹或反弹后逢高空；套利YP 09可部分止盈部分持有；期权观望[21][22][23] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**：CBOT玉米期货外盘反弹，主力合约反弹0.2%，收盘为450.5美分/蒲[27] - **重要资讯**：截至5月9日当周，CBOT玉米期货延续下跌，美国玉米播种顺利，巴西二季玉米丰产预期压制价格；美国玉米主产州未来6 - 10日部分地区气温低于正常、降水高于正常；全国饲料企业平均库存增加；5月12日北港收购价稳定，华北产区周末回调[28] - **逻辑分析**：美玉米播种加快，底部震荡；国内玉米供应少，东北玉米上涨，港口价格稳定，抛储和糙米拍卖传闻影响下，华北玉米现货回落，小麦价格上涨，玉米现货仍偏强，中长期上涨空间有限，07玉米高位震荡，期现价差缩小[29] - **持仓建议**：单边外盘07玉米450美分/蒲附近有支撑，07玉米等待回调，观望为主；套利玉米和淀粉套利震荡操作，逢低做扩；期权有现货的可考虑逢高累沽策略[32][33] Hogs - **相关资讯**：生猪价格整体震荡，部分地区持平或有小幅度涨跌；仔猪价格下跌，母猪价格持平；农产品批发价格指数和猪肉平均价格下降[35] - **逻辑分析**：近期生猪出栏积极性一般，但出栏体重增加使供应压力体现，大小猪价差回落或使出栏增加，关注现货跌价情况，期货预计有压力[35] - **交易策略**：单边偏空思路为主；套利LH79反套；期权卖出宽跨式策略[38] Peanuts - **重要资讯**：各地花生通货米有报价区间；部分油厂到货及成交价格情况；花生油报价偏强，有议价空间；花生粕走货少；国内花生油样本企业花生库存减少，花生油库存增加[39][40] - **逻辑分析**：花生现货成交少，新季花生价格稳定，进口花生价格稳定、进口量大幅减少，花生油厂收购价格稳定，下游消费弱；豆粕现货回落，花生粕价格稳定，油厂有利润，大型油厂收购量增加；市场预计新季种植面积增加，河南等地干旱易炒作天气，10花生有反弹空间[41][43] - **持仓建议**：单边10花生轻仓逢低短多；套利观望；期权观望[44][45][46] Eggs - **重要资讯**：主产区和主销区均价下跌后全国主流价格多数上涨；4月份全国在产蛋鸡存栏量增加，样本企业蛋鸡苗月度出苗量增加；5月9日一周全国主产区蛋鸡淘鸡出栏量增加；5月1日当周全国代表销区鸡蛋销量减少，生产和流通环节库存增加；鸡蛋盈利减少，蛋鸡养殖预期利润上涨[48][49][50] - **交易逻辑**：鸡蛋整体供应充足，在产存栏量高，蛋价跌至当前位置后有稳定迹象，建议前期空单获利平仓观望[51] - **交易策略**：单边空单可考虑获利平仓；套利多08空09；期权观望[52] Apples - **重要资讯**：截至2025年4月16日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量减少，去库同比加快；2024 - 2025年苹果进出口量有变化；冷库苹果剩余量低于往年同期，山东产地冷库惜售，出货速度后期放缓，陕西产区价格稳定，出货情况尚可但可供交易货量不大；山东和陕西产区现货价格有变动，栖霞存储商利润增加[54][55][56] - **交易逻辑**：今年苹果冷库库存处于低位，新果上市前供应大概率偏紧，需求端走货尚可，现货价格偏强，4月份西部产区天气影响部分产区坐果，预计苹果走势震荡略偏强[58] - **交易策略**：单边AP10短期逢低建仓多单；套利建议先观望；期权建议先观望[59][60][61] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**：昨日ICE美棉主力合约下跌0.01（0.01%）至66.72美分/磅[62] - **重要资讯**：中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，将建立磋商机制；美棉主产区和德州干旱指数下行；CFTC发布ICE棉花期货合约ON - CALL数据，卖方未点价合约有变动[63][64][65] - **交易逻辑**：基本面棉花短期供应充足，需求一般，进入需求淡季，纱线和坯布库存有累库迹象；全球经济和贸易政策不确定性大，关注中美关税谈判后续动态，建议观望[66] - **交易策略**：单边预计未来美棉走势大概率震荡略偏强，郑棉近期宏观不确定性大，建议观望；套利空09多01；期权观望[67][68][69]