| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美豆地区未来十五天降雨低于正常水平。本周豆粕库存继续累库，周二美豆优良率 | | 豆粕 | | 虽有环比下降，但低于市场预期。周六 USDA 公布 9 月供需报告，美豆产量及期末 | | | 短线整理趋弱 | 库存环比调增。但全球大豆期末库存环比调降。报告对美豆略偏空。隔夜美豆受报 | | ★ | | 告影响波动较大，最终收涨。由于美豆收获临近，叠加国内短期供应充足，市场看 | | | | 多追多谨慎对待，注意仓位控制及风控管理。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。上周中加会晤后，尚未 | | 菜粕 | | 有新的进展出现。中方延期对加籽的反倾调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日， | | ★ | 短线整理 | 但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关 | | | | 注中加近期会议结果。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且中印存在采买需求。基本面展 | | 棕榈油 | | 望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。美国议员提交法案反对将小型 ...

2025 年 9 月 15 日 沥青：出货平平向稳，价格南降北升 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,393 | -2.19% | 3,404 | 0.32% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,368 | -2.74% | 3,387 | 0.56% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 43,199 | 10,098 | 25,946 | (9,141) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 238,778 | 52,341 | 252,640 | (140) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 68260 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 ...

供需略有改善 底部震荡运行 银河期货大宗商品研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 9 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面方面，供应端表现分化，本周硅铁产量小幅下降，锰硅产量小幅回升，总体来看，此前的持续复产趋势转为高位平稳 运行。需求方面，247家钢厂铁水产量在阅兵结束后大幅回升，原料需求也维持高位。不过，进入9月第2周，钢材需求回升 的情况仍不明显，本周样本钢材库存仍然有所累积，叠加钢材利润处于低位，减产冲击原料需求的风险仍然存在。成本端近 期主产区电价小幅上行，锰矿港口库存整体平稳，且明显低于往年同期，成本端对锰硅有所支撑。总体来看， ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：震荡思路 | | 截至20250911，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计296条(20万吨/日），其中在产225条，冷修停产71条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为16.02 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 万吨，比4日+0.38%。 周内无点火，放水浮法产线。凯里市凯荣玻璃有限公司设计产能600吨/日原产绿玻，周内转产欧洲灰；株洲醴陵旗滨玻璃有限公司三线500 | | | 吨/日海洋蓝周内正色；河南省中联玻璃有限责任公司一线600吨/日原产殴灰，周内改产黑玻。 | | | 截至20250901，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值10.4天，环比+7.8%，同比+8.3%。8月下旬至今，全国各大区多数深加工订单反馈环比未有 | | 需求 | 明显变化，多数排单3-10天居多，部分区域原片价格上移情况下，本地钢化中空产品价格持续稳定，行业整 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the situation is volatile with alternating bullish and bearish factors. In the short - term, the market is mainly priced by the industry. Coke is facing a second round of price cuts, and the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend. The coke main contract should be treated as a volatile operation [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly launched a special rectification campaign for network chaos in the automotive industry. China's August PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [8]. - **Overseas Aspect**: Traders fully priced in three interest rate cuts by the Fed before the end of 2025. The US may pressure the G7 to raise tariffs on India and China for buying Russian oil. The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case in early November [8]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron - water output is 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The coke main contract should be treated as a volatile operation [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 12, the position of coke futures contracts was 53,200 lots, a net increase of 983 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 137.0, a net increase of 28.0 points. The registered warehouse receipt volume was 1,520 lots, a net increase of 310 lots. The screw - coke ratio of the futures main contract was 1.92, a net increase of 0.01 points [12][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 11, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of coking coal at the Ganqimao Port in Mongolia was 1,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. As of September 12, the coke basis was - 150.0 yuan, a decrease of 98.5 points [26]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Coking Plant**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 35 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.58%, an increase of 2.97%. The daily coke output was 53.30 tons, an increase of 2.09 tons. The coke inventory was 43.91 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 752.00 tons, a decrease of 28.95 tons. The available days of coking coal were 10.6 days, a decrease of 0.86 days [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons compared to last week. As of September 5, 2025, the total coke inventory was 860.55 tons, an increase of 6.40 tons [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The inventory at 18 ports decreased by 2.45 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 9.58 tons [40]. - **Export Situation**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 15.58%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.9%. In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. From January to August, the cumulative steel export was 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0% [44]. - **Real Estate Data**: In July 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of September 7, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - medium cities was 1.346 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 27.19% [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol price is currently in a low - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and focus on subsequent long - buying opportunities. Although the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventories and insufficient restocking motivation of MTO enterprises, the low current spot price in East China and the approaching peak season of traditional downstream industries may help relieve the inventory pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, MA01 closed at 2387 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.83%); MA05 closed at 2390 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.79%); MA09 closed at 2213 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton (-2.30%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Among different regions, prices in Shaanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.47%), while prices in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged. Prices in other regions such as Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Inner Mongolia decreased to varying degrees [1] - **Price Difference**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 12.50 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Cost and Profit Situation - **Cost**: Coal spot prices in Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing also remained unchanged. The cost of coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged [1] - **Profit**: Methanol profits, including coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol, remained unchanged. However, the profits of Northwest MTO decreased by 82.80 yuan/ton (-636.92%), and the profits of East China MTO decreased by 34.50 yuan/ton (-6.54%). Among downstream products, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 2.75 yuan/ton (-0.60%), the profit of MTBE remained unchanged, and the profit of a certain product (possibly mis - written as "開發") increased by 10 yuan/ton (3.49%) [1] 3.3 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 oscillated weakly, opening at 2404 yuan/ton, closing at 2387 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 493,157 lots and an open interest of 775,400, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and increasing positions [1] - **Foreign Information**: For non - Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - future, the reference negotiation range is +0.6 - 1%, and a few people are offering at +1%, but there is still a lack of transaction dynamics. For other Middle - East regions' methanol shipments arriving in the near - far future, the reference negotiation is at +0 - 0.5%, and recent transactions are at +0.2 - 0.5% [1] 3.4 Long - Short Logic - **Downward Pressure**: High port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland area suppress the upward space of methanol prices, and the short - term upward drive is limited [1] - **Upward Potential**: The current low spot price in East China and the approaching peak season of traditional downstream industries may help relieve the inventory pressure [1] 3.5 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, and the view score is 0 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European Line) is under pressure. The 2510 contract is currently pricing in the downward trend of freight rates in the first half of October and the potential upward risk in the second half, and is short - term weak. The 2512 contract should not be over - estimated due to potential negative factors. The 2602 contract may not show a discount to the 12 contract in years with a late Spring Festival [10][13] - This week, consider taking profits on the 2510 contract at low prices. In the medium - to - long - term, consider going long on the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads [14] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main 2510 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) closed at 1,203.8 points, down 5.28%, with an increase of 2,187 lots in positions; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1,609.1 points, down 4.07%, with an increase of 1,417 lots in positions [1][10] Freight Rates - The 38 - week freight rate center has further declined to around $1,650/FEU. Conservatively estimated, the cumulative decline in the 39th and 40th weeks is $100/FEU, and the center may fall to around $1,550/FEU. Different alliances have different pricing and adjustment situations [11] Supply - Side Fundamentals - In October, the weekly average capacity has been slightly revised down from 276,000 TEU/week to 267,000 TEU/week. The year - on - year growth rate of capacity in October is 1.1%, a significant decline compared to July - September. The suspension of sailings by shipping companies during the National Day holiday is relatively strong. In November, there are 6 pending voyages, 3 blank sailings, and 1 additional sailing. Without considering the pending voyages, the current weekly average capacity is 302,000 TEU/week [12] Contract Analysis - The 2510 contract may mainly reflect the freight rate quotes from the 40th to 42nd weeks. The current price may have priced in the downward trend of freight rates in the first half of October and the potential upward risk in the second half, and is short - term weak. The 2512 contract should not be over - estimated due to potential negative factors such as the late Spring Festival in 2026 and increasing over - capacity pressure. The 2602 contract may not show a discount to the 12 contract in years with a late Spring Festival [13] Strategy - This week, consider taking profits on the 2510 contract at low prices. In the medium - to - long - term, consider going long on the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads [14] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed performance. Bean meal, jujube, and some oils are rising, while cotton and pigs are facing downward pressure or limited rebounds. The market is mainly influenced by factors such as supply - demand expectations, USDA reports, and seasonal consumption patterns [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Bean Meal - The main 2601 contract of bean meal rose and recovered the losses of the previous two days, driven by the rebound of US soybean futures. The market expects the USDA to lower the US soybean yield forecast. Although domestic bean meal inventory increased in September, the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the tightening of soybean supply in the fourth quarter support the price. Before the USDA report, short - term trading is recommended, with support at 3065 and resistance at 3100 [2]. (2) Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil first declined and then rose. After the release of the MPOB's bearish monthly report, the price digested the negative pressure. The rise of crude oil, the expected moderate bullishness of the USDA report, and the decline in Malaysian palm oil production in early September supported the price. Before the USDA report, close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 9250 and resistance at 9394 [3]. (3) Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil rebounded. Before the USDA report, short - covering boosted the price. Domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but the start of double - festival stocking supports the price. Close short positions and wait for opportunities, with support at 8250 and resistance at 8366 [5]. (4) Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs fluctuated slightly higher at a low level. The double - festival stocking demand supported the price in the near term, but the high egg - laying hen inventory and the approaching peak egg - laying season may increase supply pressure. Hold short positions, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3069 [7]. (5) Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples continued to rise. The procurement of early - maturing apples in the western region was active, and the reduction of seasonal fruits and double - festival stocking demand supported the price. Close short positions and hold light long positions, with support at 8150 and resistance at 8300 [10]. (6) Jujubes - The main 2601 contract of jujubes rose strongly. There is a strong expectation of new jujube production reduction this year, and the market has high expectations for the opening price in October. The start of double - festival stocking and the approaching sugar - increasing stage support the price. Hold light long positions, with support at 11110 and resistance at 11315 [11][13]. (7) Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to rebound, driven by the rise of overseas raw sugar futures. The adjustment expectation of the sugar - making ratio in Brazil and the domestic mid - autumn stocking supported the price. Close short positions, with support at 5531 and resistance at 5580 [14]. (8) Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn rebounded slightly after two - day decline. The new corn is starting to be listed, with high opening prices and active downstream procurement. Close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2184 and resistance at 2210 [17]. (9) Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton continued to decline. There is a strong expectation of new cotton production increase in China, and the consumption recovery is slow. Hold light short positions, with support at 13780 and resistance at 13900 [20]. (10) Pigs - The main 2511 contract of pigs fluctuated lower, with limited rebound. The supply is in excess in September, but there is an expectation of increased demand during the double - festivals. Hold short positions, with support at 13200 and resistance at 13400 [21][23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Sina Finance APP stands out as the preferred choice for professional futures investors due to its comprehensive and powerful features [1] Group 2 - In terms of market data comprehensiveness and real-time performance, the Sina Finance APP provides real-time quotes from the four major domestic futures exchanges and international mainstream futures markets, with fast data refresh rates and low latency [2] - The WH6/WH7 from Wenhua Finance is favored by experienced investors for its comprehensive market data, especially in depth order book and historical data, although some advanced features require payment [2] - The Tonghuashun Futures APP is user-friendly for beginners but lacks the speed of real-time updates and depth of international market integration compared to Sina Finance [2] Group 3 - Regarding the speed and depth of news and research reports, the Sina Finance APP excels with 24/7 news updates and a wide range of exclusive research reports and market analyses from various futures companies and investment institutions [3] - Dongfang Caifang offers rich content and strong user interaction but is slightly less efficient in professional futures news compared to Sina Finance [3] - Jinshi Data specializes in global macro and financial market news but lacks in-depth analysis of the domestic futures market and community interaction, making its functionality relatively narrow [3] Group 4 - Overall, Wenhua Finance is professional but somewhat cumbersome, Tonghuashun is easy to use but lacks distinctive features, and Jinshi Data is focused but has a narrow coverage [4] - The Sina Finance APP finds the best balance between the comprehensiveness and real-time nature of market data and the breadth and speed of news, meeting the stringent requirements of professional investors [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The current methanol price is oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum in the short - term due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland areas. However, considering the low spot price in East China and the approaching peak season for traditional downstream industries, it is recommended to wait and focus on subsequent long - position opportunities [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: MA01 rose from 2398 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, a change of 9 yuan/ton (0.38%); MA05 rose from 2391 yuan/ton to 2409 yuan/ton, a change of 18 yuan/ton (0.75%); MA09 rose from 2247 yuan/ton to 2265 yuan/ton, a change of 18 yuan/ton (0.80%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average)**: Prices in most regions increased slightly, such as in Shandong (from 2360 yuan/ton to 2390 yuan/ton, 1.27%), Guangdong (from 2275 yuan/ton to 2292.50 yuan/ton, 0.77%), etc. Some regions remained unchanged, like Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei [1] - **Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 6 yuan/ton [1] b) Cost and Profit Situation - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Most coal and industrial natural gas prices remained stable, with only the price of Yulin Q6000 coal rising from 557.50 yuan/ton to 567.50 yuan/ton (1.79%) [1] - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 455.20 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 382 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits**: Profits of some downstream products changed, such as acetic acid rising from 441.65 yuan/ton to 456.15 yuan/ton (3.28%), formaldehyde rising from - 296.40 yuan/ton to - 286.40 yuan/ton (3.37%), while MTBE and diethylene glycol remained unchanged. The profits of Northwest MTO and East China MTO decreased, with Northwest MTO changing from 2 yuan/ton to - 13 yuan/ton (- 750.00%) and East China MTO changing from - 497.07 yuan/ton to - 527.57 yuan/ton (- 6.14%) [1] c) Trading Information - The domestic methanol futures main contract MA2601 oscillated upwards, opening at 2398 yuan/ton, closing at 2407 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 540,390 lots, and the open interest was 755,966 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] d) Foreign Information - For far - month non - Iranian methanol shipments, the reference negotiation price is 253 - 264 US dollars/ton. For far - month methanol shipments from other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation price is +0 - 0.6%, and recent transactions are at +0.2 - 0.5%. Some individuals are offering at +1%, but there is still a lack of active offers at fixed prices [1] e) Trading Strategy - Focus on opportunities to go long at low prices [1]