成本支撑较强，多单可继续持有 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量小幅反弹，但绝对值仍处于同期低位水平，宁夏部分产区临时停电导致部分产量损失，下 期统计数据或再度下降。需求方面，钢材库存开始季节性累积，钢材产量也在春节前季节性下降，但铁水产量相对平稳，原料端需 求暂有支撑。成本端方面，1月电价逐步结算，产区铁合金电价总体平稳，部分产区有所上调。近期受贵金属、有色等龙头商品暴跌 冲击情绪，但自身成本端支撑较强，此前报告中建议的多单可继续持有。 锰硅方面，供应端开工 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Some PDH units are expected to restart, and downstream demand is following up moderately. The main drivers for propylene in the later stage lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side, the maintenance status of major PDH units, and the follow - up of downstream demand under cost pressure. [1][2] - It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading due to high short - term geopolitical uncertainties and increased cost - side fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's main contract closing price is 6205 yuan/ton (-148), the East China spot price is 6490 yuan/ton (+0), and the North China spot price is 6440 yuan/ton (+10). The East China basis is 285 yuan/ton (+148), and the Shandong basis is 235 yuan/ton (+158) [1]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene's operating rate is 72% (+1%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 237 US dollars/ton (-15), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 98 US dollars/ton (-12), and the import profit is - 437 yuan/ton (+5) [1]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder's operating rate is 31% (-0.61%), and the production profit is - 240 yuan/ton (-10); epoxy propane's operating rate is 70% (-3%), and the production profit is - 783 yuan/ton (-328); n - butanol's operating rate is 85% (-2%), and the production profit is 845 yuan/ton (-106); octanol's operating rate is 91% (+0%), and the production profit is 941 yuan/ton (-107); acrylic acid's operating rate is 82% (-2%), and the production profit is 192 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile's operating rate is 69% (+0%), and the production profit is - 917 yuan/ton (-60); phenol - acetone's operating rate is 86% (-2%), and the production profit is - 766 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 40,470 tons (-2,320) [1].

期货研究报告 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 | 焦煤延续低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空僵持，焦炭低位整理 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1200.0 元/吨，周 ...

黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：2026 年 2 月 5 日（周四）贵金属夜盘全线下挫，白银波动与跌幅显著大于黄金，内外盘共振下杀。 | | | | 金 | 沪金主力收 1096.14 元/克，跌幅 1.48%。 | | | | 属 | 基本面：美国就业数据疲软叠加 AI 恐慌，美股下挫，加密货币和白银暴跌，投资者涌入美债避险；避险情绪 | | | | | 推动美债收益率显著下行；英国央行按兵不动，维持利率在 3.75%，5 比 4 投票结果释放强烈降息信号。国 | | | | | 内黄金 ETF 流入 1.2 吨，COMEX 黄金库存为 1112 吨，+4 吨；上期所黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR | | | | | 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1083.4 吨，-3.7 吨；COMEX 白银库存为 12560 吨；上期所白银库存为 | 吨，-57.2 | 423.24 | | | 吨，-26 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 16438 吨，-109 吨；金交所白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨；伦敦 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [6][11] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level The market sentiment is cooling down, and there may be range fluctuations before the festival [6] Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber starts to increase, the spot is strong, domestic inventory starts to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level The market sentiment cools down, and there may be range fluctuations before the festival [6] Fundamental Data Supply - Related - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year The exchange inventory has changed little recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has rebounded The import volume has increased [6][16][19][22] Demand - Related - Automobile production and sales have declined, tire production has increased year - on - year, and tire industry exports have rebounded [25][28][31][34] Price - Related - On February 5, the spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) declined, and the basis strengthened [10][37] Multi - Empty Factors Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is high, spot prices are resistant to decline, and there is anti - involution in the domestic market [8] Bearish Factors - Domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions [8]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, there may be a phased rebound, but the overall upward space is limited. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range [3][4] - For other commodities: A shares adjusted downward with low trading volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to recover tomorrow; gold is expected to continue fluctuating, so participation should be cautious; iron ore is seeking a bottom with weak domestic demand support and a bearish outlook; glass has a bullish tendency with minor daily adjustments; methanol may fluctuate slightly and is expected to stabilize as demand recovers; pulp is in a range - bound trend due to slow domestic consumption recovery [7][10][11][14][17][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **External Events**: Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports due to a government production - cut plan, with some 2026 output quotas potentially cut by 40% - 70% compared to 2025. This has led to a rise in export quotes, a limit - up in the A - share coal sector, and a stronger coking coal futures market [3] - **Domestic Situation**: As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mines are on holiday, reducing supply. However, Mongolian coal imports at the Ganqimaodu Port remain high. In February, coking coal supply decreases while demand remains stable, with fundamental improvements [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Coking coal futures are oscillating between 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton, with 1300 yuan being a strong resistance level. Trading volume did not increase during recent rallies, and market activity is low due to the approaching Spring Festival [3] A Shares - The overall A - share market adjusted downward with low trading volume today. Technically, the short - term adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index is nearing the end, and it is expected to recover tomorrow [7] Gold - Gold prices have continued to decline significantly, and fluctuations are expected to continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus has intensified. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still weak. Technically, it has broken through the support platform, and the outlook is bearish [11][12] Glass - Daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has slightly decreased. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side optimization. Technically, it adjusted today, but the bullish view remains [14][15] Methanol - Methanol at ports may fluctuate slightly due to expected import reduction. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption progress, port inventory changes, and coal price trends. Prices are expected to stabilize as demand recovers [17] Pulp - Since the end of last year, the supply - demand pattern of pulp has improved, driving prices to bottom out. However, the slow recovery of domestic terminal consumption restricts price increases, and the futures market is in a range - bound trend [21]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 5 日星期四 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 重要事项: 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 工 | 瓶片 | 震 荡 偏 多 | 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力价格下 ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 淡季基本面走弱，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 螺纹钢供需格局弱势运行，库存增幅扩大，螺纹供应持续回升并至相对高位，但春节临近短流 程钢厂逐步减产，供应将再度收缩，关注降幅情况。与此同时，螺纹钢需求弱势下行，高频需求指 标环比下降，并位于近年来农历同期低位，同时下游行业未改善，需求弱势格局未变，继续拖累钢 价。总之，螺纹钢供应回升，而需求表现偏弱，供增需弱局面下基本面延续季节性弱 ...

欢迎关注微信公众号 【每日精选观点】 品种 合约 观点 铜 CU2603 農荡偏强 烧碱 短期偏弱 SH2603 热卷 价格中枢在区间下沿向上修复 HC2605 豆糖 農荡偏弱 M2605 【全品种日评】 品种 主力合约 操作建议 点评 IF2603 风险集中释放后,商品及权益资产均有所回暖,但 IH2603 市场情绪回暖,股指集体反弹 股指 持仓未见回升,处于修复性反弹阶段。建议做好组 IC2603 合风险控制,等待企稳,可持有双边买权仓位。 IM2603 昨日权益市场反弹略压制长债情绪,不过央行公告 一是1月买债1000亿元,二是3个月买断式逆回购 净投放1000亿元,资金面宽松预期支撑短端相对 T2603 走强,关注周四周五政府债供给压力。仍预期 TF2603 国债 权益市场反弹,长债情绪略回落 TS2603 T2603合约波动区间或在108-108.3。单边策略 上仍维持区间操作。曲线策略上建议关注做平。移 TL 2603 仓策略上,下月面临春节,建议投资者在节前提前 安排移仓,以防节后流动性不足。 AU2604 AG2604 白银ETF持仓大幅回升 市场情绪改善贵金属止跌反弹 黄金止跌反弹阶段底部有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), the rating is cautiously bullish [1] - For iron ore, the rating is cautiously bearish [1] - For coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon, the ratings are all cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel products: The supply-demand contradiction in the steel market is limited. The macro sentiment is temporarily strong, and the prices are expected to move within a range in the medium term [1][5] - Iron ore: The inventory of imported ore in steel mills has significantly increased, but the pace of restocking will slow down. The iron ore fundamentals are slightly weak, and prices may face pressure [1][7] - Coke: The first round of price increases has been implemented, and there is a divergence in the market regarding the second round. The production enthusiasm of coke enterprises is fair in the short term, and the price is expected to move within a range [1][10] - Coking coal: The domestic coal supply is decreasing, and the import volume has recovered to a high level. The supply will gradually tighten before the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to move within a range [1][13] - Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon: The supply of ferromanganese is basically stable, and the demand has improved marginally. The supply of ferrosilicon has increased slightly, and the demand has also improved. New steel tenders are underway, and the prices are expected to move within a range [1][16] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Demand has decreased slightly month-on-month, production has increased supported by profits, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The profit of steel mills is average, and high raw material prices suppress the enthusiasm for restocking [1][4] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory has slightly decreased but the absolute level is high. The pressure of winter stockpiling may be small, and the spot is relatively weak with the basis fluctuating around parity [1][4] Iron Ore - Steel mills' import ore inventory has increased significantly, restocking will continue but at a slower pace. Iron ore production has decreased slightly month-on-month, and the shipment of foreign ore has continued to increase. The fundamentals are slightly weak [1][7] Coke - The first round of price increases has been implemented, and there is a divergence in the market regarding the second round. The loss of coke enterprises has slightly decreased, production enthusiasm is fair in the short term, supply has decreased slightly month-on-month, and downstream demand remains stable [1][10] Coking Coal - Domestic coal supply has decreased month-on-month, and there are more shutdowns as the Spring Festival approaches. The import volume has recovered to a high level, and the price of raw coal at the port has slightly decreased. Downstream restocking is on an as-needed basis [1][13] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferromanganese**: Supply in the production area is basically stable, demand has improved marginally, and inventory has increased slightly. New steel tenders are underway, and the tender prices are mostly around 5,850 yuan/ton [1][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply in the main production area has increased slightly, demand has improved marginally, and inventory has changed little. The final tender price of a landmark steel mill is 5,760 yuan/ton, the same as in January [1][16]