华安期货：8月20日国债期货连续震荡偏弱 重要信息： 1、股市走弱叠加央行逆回购放量安抚市场情绪，现券期货震荡暂企稳。银行间主要利率债收益率多数下行，1年以内的短券表现较弱；国债期 货全线收涨，30年期主力合约涨0.23%。央行开展5803亿元逆回购操作，净投放4657亿元，银行间资金面整体仍维持小幅收敛态势。 2、央行新增支农支小再贷款额度1000亿元，引导和鼓励金融机构加大对北京、河北、吉林、山东、甘肃等受灾地区的经营主体特别是小微企 业、个体工商户，以及农业、养殖企业和农户的信贷支持力度。 核心逻辑： 近期金融市场风险偏好回升，股债跷跷板效应明显，压制债市情绪，国债期货连续震荡偏弱。总体，随着政府债券发行规模逐步达到及度过高 峰，债市供给压力有望缓和。同时，地缘因素及贸易政策变化仍有很大变数，对全球经济格局及金融环境有潜在冲击，避险情绪利好债市。 市场展望： 建议可逢低布局多单。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On August 19, treasury bond futures prices generally rose, with the T2509 contract up 0.04% and a decrease in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally increased, and key - term treasury bond yields showed mixed changes. The 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 1.82bp to 1.77%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 33.3bp. The central bank's open - market operation had a net injection of 46.57 billion yuan, and there were various macro and industry news. Treasury bond futures prices may continue to weaken, and the cross - variety spread may widen [2][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the TS2509 contract rose 0.028 (0.03%), the TF2509 contract rose 0.085 (0.08%), and the T2509 contract rose 0.040 (0.04%) [2] - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of some contracts decreased (e.g., TS2509 decreased by 8399), while others increased (e.g., TS2512 increased by 4068). Trading volumes varied across different contracts [2] - **Cross - period Spreads**: Cross - period spreads changed. For example, the cross - period spread of TS contracts changed from - 0.022 to - 0.012 [2] - **IRR Analysis**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Short - term Market Interest Rates - **Rate Changes**: On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally increased. SHIBOR7 - day rate rose 3.4bp, DR007 rate rose 5.51bp, and GC007 rate rose 5.6bp [2] 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term treasury bond yields showed mixed changes. The 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 1.82bp to 1.77%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 33.3bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: U.S. 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 4bp, German 10Y treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield rose 1.9bp [2] 3.4 Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On August 19, the central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan after 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] - **Fiscal Revenue**: In July, national general public budget revenue increased 2.6% year - on - year, with central and local revenues up 2.2% and 3.1% respectively. Tax revenue in July increased 5%, the highest this year [3] - **Special Bond Issues**: Some provincial audit reports pointed out problems in the use and management of special bond funds, including data inaccuracies, project delays, and misappropriation [3] - **Central Bank Support**: The People's Bank of China added 100 billion yuan of re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses to aid disaster - affected areas [3] - **Personal Pension Policy**: Starting from September 1, three new conditions for withdrawing personal pension were added [3] - **International News**: Trump stated that the U.S. would help Ukraine defend but not send ground troops, and that Ukraine would not join NATO. The U.S. White House was planning a trilateral meeting [3] - **U.S. Housing Data**: In July, U.S. new home starts increased 5.2% month - on - month to 1.428 million units, reaching a five - month high [3] 3.5 Industry Information - **Money Market Interest Rates**: On August 19, most money market interest rates increased. For example, the 1 - day and 7 - day silver inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted average interest rates increased [3] - **U.S. Treasury Bond Yields**: U.S. treasury bond yields fell across the board. For example, the 2 - year yield dropped 1.69bp to 3.738% [3] 3.6 Market Comment and Strategy - **Market Situation**: Treasury bond futures prices slightly rose, with the 10Y treasury bond active bond yield down to 1.771%. The central bank's net injection was 46.57 billion yuan, and Shibor short - end varieties mostly increased. The U.S. 9 - month interest rate cut expectation decreased, and the Chinese real estate market was still adjusting [3] - **Future Outlook**: Treasury bond futures prices may continue to weaken, and the cross - variety spread may widen due to factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect and the resumption of VAT collection on government and financial bonds [3]

展望后市，华创证券固收首席分析师周冠南称，短期尽管'股债跷跷板'效应对当下债市的指引作用较强，但就中期维度考虑，由于基本面和货币 条件尚未逆转，因此债市仍处于调整逻辑而非反转逻辑中，目前无需过于悲观。 鹏扬30年国债ETF(511090)是目前市场上首只跟踪中债30年期国债指数的ETF，具备T+0交易属性，既可使得投资者日内低买高卖博取收益，也可 帮助投资者快速拉长组合久期或用作对冲权益仓位。该产品可以作为客户的高弹性现金管理工具和组合久期调节工具，短期在市场利率波动放大 时，具备较强的交易属性，长期在低利率的背景下，具备较强的配置属性，值得投资者积极关注。 风险提示：本处所列示信息仅用于沟通交流之目的，仅供参考，不构成对任何个股的投资建议。"基金有风险，投资需谨慎" 8月20日讯，国债市场早盘持续拉升。截至上午10:00，30年国债ETF(511090)涨0.28%。债市方面，30年期国债期货合约(TL2512)最新价为116.26 元，涨0.28%，成交量为19515手，总持仓量为89205手。其余国债期货合约10年期国债(T2512)涨0.03%；5年期国债(TF2512)涨0.04%；2年期国债 (T ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant pressure and adjustments, contrasting with the strong performance of the equity market, leading to concerns among bond fund managers about redemption pressures and declining net asset values [1][3][6]. Market Performance - On August 18, the bond market faced its worst day in August, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 5 basis points and 6 basis points respectively, closing at 1.79% and 2.06% [1]. - The average performance of pure bond funds was negative, with mid-to-long-term pure bond funds averaging -0.19% and short-term bond funds averaging -0.03% for the week [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The bond market is under pressure due to increased risk appetite in the equity market, leading to a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, where funds are being diverted from bonds to equities [3][4]. - The current bond market adjustment is driven more by expectations rather than changes in the funding environment, with a potential shift from deflation to mild inflation anticipated [3][4]. Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers are adopting strategies such as shortening duration and adjusting portfolio structures to cope with the steepening yield curve [8][9]. - There is a consensus among fund managers that the bond market does not have the foundation for a long-term decline, with continued demand from institutional clients and a stable funding environment [2][8]. Investor Sentiment - Personal investors are expressing mixed feelings, with some feeling pessimistic about the bond market while others see potential buying opportunities [8][10]. - Fund managers suggest that investors consider extending their holding periods and maintaining a balanced approach to their portfolios, especially during market adjustments [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, with fund managers expressing concerns about pressure and actively shortening duration and adjusting structures to cope with future steepening of the yield curve [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market faced its worst day in August on August 18, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 5 basis points (BP) and 6 BP respectively, closing at 1.79% and 2.06% [1]. - The bond market's sentiment has been negatively impacted despite the equity market reaching new highs, leading to discussions among investors about significant losses [1][4]. - The adjustment in the bond market is attributed to multiple factors, including a shift in market risk appetite and the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, as the equity market continues to rise [4][5]. Group 2: Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers are adopting strategies to shorten duration and adjust their portfolios in response to market changes, indicating a proactive approach to managing risks [2][8]. - The average performance of pure bond funds has been poor, with mid-to-long-term pure bond funds showing an average return of -0.19% and short-term bond funds at -0.03% [5][6]. - Fund managers are optimistic that the bond market does not have the foundation for a long-term decline, citing ongoing demand from institutional clients and stable funding conditions [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound operation, with fund managers suggesting a "short long, long short" strategy to navigate the current environment [8][9]. - There is a consensus that the bond market lacks significant positive catalysts in the short term, and it may continue to exhibit volatility [9]. - Fund managers recommend that investors consider credit bond funds for potential returns above 2% over the next year, while also suggesting a balanced approach to portfolio allocation between stocks and bonds [11][12].

Group 1 - The A-share market reached a historic moment on August 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3728.03 points, hitting a nearly ten-year high since August 2015, and the total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan for the first time [1] - The bond market experienced a significant decline, with the 30-year main contract dropping 1.33% to 116.09 yuan, marking the largest drop since March 2025, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts also fell [3][4] - Analysts expect the bond market to remain weak in the short term, but may gradually become "desensitized" to stock market fluctuations, returning to fundamentals in the long term [5][6] Group 2 - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect has been evident since July, with the stock market's strong performance leading to rising bond yields, particularly the 10-year government bond yield increasing from 1.641% to around 1.78% [4] - Factors contributing to the rise in bond yields include changes in market risk appetite, fund flows, and institutional redemptions, alongside tax payment periods affecting liquidity [4][6] - The central bank has been conducting large-scale reverse repurchase operations to stabilize the funding environment, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan on August 19 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant changes in the bond market, particularly the decline in government bond prices and the rise in yields, which are critical signals for the future direction of the capital market [1][2][9]. Group 1: Bond Market Changes - Recently, government bonds have seen a widespread decline, especially in medium to long-term bonds [1][2]. - The 30-year government bond futures experienced a notable drop of 1.33%, marking the largest decline since March 17, with closing prices hitting new lows since March 24 [3][4]. - The yields on government bonds are rising, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 6.10 basis points to 2.055%, returning above 2% for the first time in four months [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in bond prices and the simultaneous rise in yields indicate a weakening demand for bonds, suggesting that the attractiveness of bonds is diminishing [12][13]. - The article discusses the traditional inverse relationship between the stock and bond markets, where a strong stock market typically correlates with a weak bond market [15][16]. - However, the article argues that the current weakness in the bond market is not solely due to this stock-bond dynamic, as both short-term and long-term bonds are experiencing price and yield changes [19][24]. Group 3: Economic Expectations - The shift from a deflationary trading environment to an inflationary one is highlighted as a key factor influencing the bond market's performance [31][32]. - Recent economic indicators, such as rising CPI and increasing commodity prices, suggest a warming inflation outlook [36][37]. - The article notes that external factors, including increased foreign investment and potential policy changes, are contributing to a positive shift in market expectations [42][43]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the worst phase for the capital market has likely passed, and a prolonged recovery period is anticipated, with trading dynamics shifting towards inflation-driven strategies [48][49]. - The current market conditions indicate that the bond market may continue to weaken while the stock market remains strong, suggesting a new normal for capital market behavior [50].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a historic moment with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3728.03 points, marking the highest level since August 2015, and the total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan for the first time in history [1][3] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index hit a peak of 3745.94 points during trading, reflecting strong bullish sentiment in the market [1] - The index has maintained an upward trend since breaking through 3500 points in early July, reaching 3600 points on July 23 [4] Group 2: Bond Market Reaction - The bond market has experienced significant declines, with the 30-year main contract dropping 1.33%, marking the largest decline since March 2025 [3] - Major interest rate bond yields have risen sharply by 4-6 basis points, with the 30-year government bond yield exceeding 2% for the first time in five months [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect has been evident since July, with rising stock market risk appetite suppressing bond market performance [4] - Analysts suggest that the strong stock market performance, along with factors like fund flows and institutional redemptions, have contributed to rising interest rates in the bond market [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts maintain an optimistic view on the bond market, suggesting that the relationship between bond yields and stock indices will eventually return to fundamentals [5][6] - Despite the current weakness in the bond market, it does not indicate a long-term upward trend in interest rates, as monetary policy remains accommodative [6][7]

8月18日，A股市场迎来历史性时刻：上证指数收于3728.03点，盘中一度涨至3745.94点，创下2015年8 月以来近十年的高点。A股市值总和历史上首次突破100万亿元大关。而在"股债跷跷板"效应之下，债 券市场加速下跌。分析人士预计，债市短期仍将偏弱运行，但长期来看，债市对于股市涨跌或渐"脱 敏"，更多回归基本面。 股债跷跷板效应压制债市 8月18日，股市与债市"冰火两重天"。国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌1.33%，收于116.090 元，创2025年3月17日以来最大跌幅，同时创2025年3月24日以来收盘新低；10年期主力合约跌0.29%， 收于108.015元，5年期主力合约跌0.21%，收于105.455元。银行间主要利率债收益率大幅上行4-6bp，30 年期国债收益率创5个月来新高，来到2%上方。 8月19日，银行间主要利率债收益率盘初延续上行。日中，债市有所回暖。国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨0.23%，10年期主力合约涨0.03%，5年期主力合约涨0.07%，2年期主力合约涨0.03%。 截至18时，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率下行1.6bp报1.8740% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, bond yields may fluctuate downward. Although government bond issuance brings certain net - increase pressure, the certainty of the downward trend of capital prices is relatively high due to the marginal decline of the central bank's open - market maturity scale and the gradual subsidence of tax - period disturbances. In the long term, the bond yield is still in a downward trend under the background of weak fundamentals [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Performance Last Week - Bond yields generally increased, the term spread widened, and the curve became steeper. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 6BP to 1.7465%, the short - term interest rate rose slightly, and the term spread increased by 4BP. Bank - to - bank pledged repo rates and financial institution pledged repo rates both increased. The liquidity of the banking system remained reasonably abundant, and the R007 - DR007 spread narrowed, but the stratification between non - bank institutions and banks still existed [3]. Factors Driving Bond Yield Increases - The increase in market risk preference, tax - period disturbances, and the substantial increase in government bond supply jointly pushed up bond yields. The stock - bond seesaw effect, with the steady rise of the equity index, suppressed the bond market. The tax - period on the 15th led to a convergence of the money market and a significant increase in capital prices. The net increase in government bond issuance also contributed to the rise in bond yields [4]. Policy - related Influences - Policies on preventing capital idling and fiscal discount loans indicate that the pace of comprehensive interest rate cuts may slow down. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report emphasizes preventing capital idling, suggesting a possible delay in the pace of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The fiscal discount policy for personal consumption and business loans strengthens the signal of a slowdown in the pace of comprehensive interest rate cuts [5]. Fundamental Situation - Economic data generally declined, and loans in the real - sector weakened, reflecting the weak economic operation. In July, economic and financial data showed that the contradiction of "weak demand + resilient supply + low prices" continued. Industrial added - value growth slightly decreased, overall investment growth was dragged down by real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing, consumption momentum slightly slowed down, and financing in the resident and enterprise sectors was weak [6][7]. Capital - related Situation - This week, liquidity continued to be relatively loose. The maturity scale of the central bank's reverse repurchase decreased significantly, which will relieve capital pressure. The tax - period disturbances are gradually subsiding, and capital prices may decline [7]. Supply - side Situation - This week, local government bond issuance increased, and government bond issuance maintained a net - increase trend. It is expected that the central bank will adjust capital injection to maintain liquidity. The net increase in local government bond issuance this week was 2366 billion yuan compared with last week, and the net increase in Treasury bond issuance also increased by about 1000 billion yuan compared with last week. The scale of government bond payments decreased marginally compared with last week [8].