Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Copper [4] - **Bearish**: Carbonate Lithium, Thread Steel, Hot Rolled Coil, Soda Ash, Float Glass [4][6][8] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Coking Coal, Coke [6][8] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rubber [10] - **Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Aluminum, Nickel, Polysilicon, Iron Ore, Crude Oil, Methanol, Polyolefin, Zhengzhou Cotton [1][4][6][8][10] Core Views - The A - share market is in a stage of shock consolidation, but the upward trend remains unchanged due to abundant liquidity and high allocation value of Chinese equity assets [1] - The bond market is in a sideways pattern with cautious sentiment and limited directional drivers [1] - Precious metals are in a bullish pattern due to increased short - term risk - aversion sentiment and the Fed's likely shift to easing [4] - Some industrial metals have different trends. Copper is bullish due to supply tightness, while nickel is in a sideways pattern with supply - demand contradictions [4] - Energy and chemical products show various trends. Lithium carbonate is bearish due to supply pressure, and polyolefin may rebound with increased supply and demand [4][10] - Building materials like steel and glass are under pressure. Steel has supply - demand contradictions, and glass may face price pressure if demand is weak [6][8] Summary by Variety Stock Index - The two - margin balance has reached a record high of 2.91 trillion yuan. The stock index has entered a shock consolidation stage, but the upward trend remains due to abundant liquidity [1] Treasury Bonds - The bond market is in a sideways pattern. The stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened, and market sentiment is cautious [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in a bullish pattern. The Fed's shift to easing and risk - aversion sentiment have strengthened their financial and monetary attributes [4] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Bullish. Supply is tight, and the mid - term upward trend is clear [4] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is in a sideways pattern with limited downside. Aluminum has strong support, and long positions can be held [4] - **Nickel**: Sideways. Supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure from the long - term surplus [4] Carbonate Lithium - Bearish. Supply remains high, and short - term prices are under pressure [4][6] Polysilicon - Sideways. Supply pressure has increased significantly, and the price increase space is limited [6] Steel and Iron Ore - **Thread Steel**: Bearish. Inventory is increasing seasonally, and prices are expected to be weak [6] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Bearish. Supply - demand contradictions are accumulating, and prices may continue to be weak [6] - **Iron Ore**: Sideways. High iron - water production eases supply - demand contradictions, and prices will range between 760 - 820 [6] Coking Coal and Coke - Bearish. Demand is weak, and prices are under pressure, but the decline of coking coal may slow down [6][8] Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: Bearish. Supply is greater than demand, and prices are under downward pressure [8] - **Float Glass**: Bearish. Demand is hard to digest supply, and prices are under pressure [8] Crude Oil - Sideways. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price increases, but long - term supply pressure is large [8] Methanol - Sideways. High imports and expected production increases will keep prices under pressure [8] Polyolefin - Sideways. Supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are expected to stop falling and rebound [10] Cotton - Sideways. New cotton production is expected to increase, and the peak - season expectation is weak [10] Rubber - Bullish. Supply - demand structure is improving, and prices are supported [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of the stock and bond markets in 2025, highlighting a significant rise in A-shares while the bond market faces challenges due to changing economic fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds reflects a shift in market risk appetite, where funds flow into equities during bullish phases, leading to pressure on bond prices [4][5]. - Economic fundamentals, including macroeconomic conditions, inflation, and monetary policy, are the primary determinants of bond market trends, rather than stock market fluctuations [4][5]. - Recent economic indicators show signs of weakening, such as a decline in new loans and social financing, which typically would support the bond market; however, the bond market continues to decline due to strong stock performance and policy disruptions [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - In a bullish stock market, the bond market may not present high value, but there are opportunities for tactical trading, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high [7]. - Monitoring the yields of 10-year and 30-year government bonds is crucial, as bond prices and yields move inversely; rising yields indicate falling bond prices and vice versa [7][8]. - Historical trends show that while bond yields have generally declined over the past decade, the current yields are at historical lows, suggesting potential for further declines in the long term, despite short-term volatility [8][9]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Considerations - For long-term investments, key considerations include duration selection (short-term vs. long-term bonds), risk-return trade-offs (focusing on Sharpe ratios), and alignment with market conditions [10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a rational approach to investing, avoiding the temptation to follow stock market trends blindly, and recognizing the unique dynamics of the bond market [10].

Group 1: Reasons for Recent RMB Appreciation - Since August 2025, the RMB has entered a new appreciation cycle against the USD, with the spot exchange rate reaching a high of 7.12 and the midpoint touching the critical level of 7.10[2] - The contribution of the counter-cyclical factor to the RMB midpoint value since August is only 26%, indicating that the appreciation is primarily market-driven rather than policy-driven[9] - The "weak USD" backdrop has led to passive appreciation of the RMB, with the USD index declining by 9.9% since the beginning of the year, and the dollar sentiment index dropping to a historical low of around 35[10] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Capital Flows - The attractiveness of RMB assets has increased, leading to active appreciation, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3800 mark, reaching a nearly ten-year high[14] - Trade net settlement rates have risen from 23.9% in January to 54.8% in July 2025, reflecting strong demand for RMB[18] - Despite foreign capital selling approximately 420 billion RMB in bonds during June and July, the RMB did not depreciate, indicating a strategic shift by foreign investors to remain in the Chinese market[23] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The outflow of funds from the bond market is expected to slow down, as the recent wave of foreign capital reduction in RMB bonds has nearly exhausted the net inflow from the past twelve months[28] - Risks include geopolitical tensions that could accelerate capital outflows from China, and unexpected economic performance in the US that may weaken the RMB[29]

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The new trust registration regulations will impact 1.82 trillion yuan of non-standard financial products, effective from September 1, 2025, as the China Trust Registration Company will no longer accept pre-registration of trust plans with a single financing party [6][7] - The recent half-year reports from banks show a divergence in wealth management business performance, with some institutions experiencing a growth rate of up to 17% in their existing product scale [7][8] Yield Performance - For the week of August 25 to August 31, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.31%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, while money market funds saw a slight decline to 1.19% [4][8] - The overall bond market maintained a fluctuating pattern, with short-term rates supported by the central bank's liquidity measures, while long-term rates faced pressure due to expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [9][10] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products decreased to 2.11%, down 0.94 percentage points week-on-week, while credit spreads narrowed by 0.22 basis points [5][12] - The current credit spreads are at historical lows since September 2024, indicating limited value for investors, and any further expansion in credit spreads may put upward pressure on the net value ratio [12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The new trust registration regulations are expected to impact approximately 1.82 trillion yuan of non-standard financial products, as the new standards will restrict the pre-registration of trust plans with a single financing party [4][11]. - The recent half-year reports from banks reveal a divergence in performance within the wealth management sector, with some institutions experiencing a growth rate of up to 17% in their existing product scales [4][12]. - The cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.31%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, while money market funds saw a slight decline to 1.19% [5][13]. - The overall bond market remains in a fluctuating state, with short-term rates supported by the central bank's liquidity measures, while long-term rates face pressure from external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [5][16]. - The bank wealth management product's net loss rate decreased to 2.11%, down by 0.94 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in the market sentiment [6][21]. Summary by Sections Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The implementation of new trust registration standards is set to affect the structure of wealth management products, pushing banks to shift from a "one-to-one" non-standard channel model to a "composite investment" approach for better risk diversification [4][11]. - The performance of wealth management businesses is becoming increasingly polarized, with banks that have established wealth management subsidiaries showing positive growth, while those without are facing contraction [4][12]. Yield Performance - Cash management products maintained a 7-day annualized yield of 1.31%, while money market funds decreased slightly to 1.19%, resulting in a yield differential of 0.13% [5][13]. - Various fixed-income products have shown a rebound in annualized yields, reflecting the ongoing adjustments in the bond market [5][16]. Net Loss Rate Tracking - The net loss rate for bank wealth management products is currently at 2.11%, indicating a decrease and suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [6][21].

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in the bond market, particularly in long-term bond prices, have attracted significant market attention [1] - The adjustment in the bond market is believed to be relatively sufficient, with several supporting factors still in place [2] - The primary reasons for the current bond market adjustment include the "see-saw" effect between the stock and bond markets, high market congestion in the bond market, and short-term emotional disturbances due to new policies and trade negotiations [1][2] Group 2 - The investment logic in the bond market may be shifting, with a greater focus on the performance of the stock market impacting bond market dynamics [2] - If the stock market continues to reach new highs, the bond market may face ongoing pressure; conversely, if the stock market adjusts, the bond market may experience a rebound [2] - Current conditions suggest that the bond market's adjustment space is limited, and there is potential investment value, especially if further declines occur due to overreaction [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing the $3,500 per ounce mark and COMEX gold futures hitting a new high. Multiple institutions predict that after a four - month consolidation, precious metals may start a new upward trend. Morgan Stanley has set the year - end target price of gold at $3,800 per ounce [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increases, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue [3][9][10]. 3. Summaries by Catalog a. Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, and gold shows a convergent breakthrough. Trump's attempt to fire Fed governors and the USGS's proposal on silver import tariffs, along with dovish signals from the Fed and weak employment data, are positive for precious metals. However, inflation rebound, geopolitical risk reduction, and other factors limit the upside of gold. In the long - term, gold is still supported [2][18]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small and medium - cap stocks correcting significantly. The domestic market has a high probability of continued market trends, but one needs to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Different indexes have different characteristics in terms of risk and return [3][9][10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the copper price may fluctuate within a range [3][19]. b. Main News on the Day - **International News**: Trump's government will request the Supreme Court to expedite the ruling on the global tariff case to overturn the federal court's decision that multiple tariffs are illegal. Market analysts believe that corporate bond issuance and budget concerns in developed countries are the main reasons for the stock market decline [4]. - **Domestic News**: China will expand the scope of visa - free countries, implementing a visa - free policy for Russian ordinary passport holders from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [5]. - **Industry News**: In August 2025, there were 2.65 million new A - share accounts, a year - on - year and month - on - month significant increase [6]. c. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 1 and 2, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. [7] d. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined, and the domestic market has a high probability of continued trends, with different indexes having different risk - return characteristics [9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The market funds are loosening, and the equity market is volatile. The stock - bond seesaw effect continues, and one should pay attention to the impact of the equity market on the bond market [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. Geopolitical factors affect oil exports, and the OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. One should follow up on OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate and coal - to - olefin plant operating rate changed, and the coastal inventory is at a relatively high level. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Other Energy and Chemical Products**: Rubber may continue to correct in the short term; polyolefin prices are generally weak; glass and soda ash futures are weak, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and consumption in autumn [14][16][17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, with multiple factors influencing their trends, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night, with multiple factors affecting it, and it may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Other Metals**: Zinc may fluctuate weakly within a range; the short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by emotions, and one should be cautious about short - selling; iron ore is expected to be bullish in the medium - term; the steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand; double - coking products are in a high - level oscillation state; protein meal is expected to fluctuate narrowly; oils and fats are expected to continue to oscillate; sugar and cotton are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; the container shipping European line may oscillate in the short term [20][22][23].

Group 1 - The market experienced a significant increase in equity assets while bond market sentiment was suppressed, leading to a steepening yield curve with long-term yields rising sharply [1] - The 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields were recorded at 1.40%, 1.63%, 1.84%, and 2.14% respectively, with changes of -1.53, 6.12, 13.35, and 19.25 basis points compared to the end of July [1] - The "stock-bond" effect has shifted to a "double bull" market due to rising interest rate cut expectations and improved economic conditions, with the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.8% [1] Group 2 - The funding environment remained reasonably ample, with short-term performance expected to be relatively stable as the central bank continued to support liquidity [2] - The central bank conducted a 600 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation in August, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, and maintained flexible short-term liquidity tools [2] - Government bond issuance has progressed rapidly, with net issuance of 4.67 trillion yuan in national bonds and 5.7 trillion yuan in local bonds by the end of August, leading to a decrease in net financing impact on the funding environment [2] Group 3 - The stock market showed strong performance driven by low interest rates and a significant inflow of funds, with a notable increase in financing balances and daily trading volumes [3] - The "anti-involution" narrative has gained traction, with the PMI raw material purchase price index rising to 53.3% and the factory price index at 49.1%, indicating a positive shift in pricing dynamics [3] - The bond market's long-end is under pressure due to the steepening yield curve and improved trading sentiment, suggesting a return to a range-bound trend in the absence of significant changes in funding and economic fundamentals [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market is likely to maintain the current stock - bond performance, and the headwind period for the bond market is not over yet [3][25] - The relatively weak PMI data in August and the high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may lead to further loosening of the domestic aggregate policy in the fourth quarter [3][25] - After the two major macro - events in September (domestic military parade and whether the Fed cuts interest rates) are settled, the bond market may enter a favorable period at the end of September and in the fourth quarter [3][25] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Bond Last Week Data Review - **Funds Rate**: DR001 was basically at 1.32% from August 25th to 29th, down about 9BP from last week, and closed at 1.33% on August 29th; R001 first decreased and then increased, closing at a weekly high of 1.42% on August 29th. DR007 hovered around 1.51% from August 25th to 29th and closed at 1.52% on August 29th. FR007 dropped 4BP from 1.58% on August 25th to 1.54% on August 26th and returned to 1.52% on August 29th [8] - **Open - Market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase投放 volume reached 2.29 trillion yuan, with a total maturity volume of 2122 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of 166.1 billion yuan, the smallest net injection this month [8] - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread narrowed. The US 6 - month SOFR rate slightly rose from 4.04% on August 25th to 4.02% on August 29th; the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate remained stable at 1.61%. As of August 29th, the 6 - month interest rate spread was - 241BP, and the inversion narrowed slightly. The 2 - year/10 - year spreads were - 218BP and - 239BP respectively, with the long - and short - end spreads narrowing slightly [18] - **Term Spread**: The term spread of Chinese bonds slightly widened, while that of US bonds gradually narrowed. The 2 - year Chinese bond yield was 1.40%, and the 10 - year was 1.84%, with a 10 - 2 - year spread of 43BP. The US bond yield fell slightly, with the 2 - year yield down 14BP to 3.59% and the 10 - year down 5BP to 4.23%, and the 10 - 2 - year spread widened to 64BP [18] - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: The Chinese bond yield curve shifted upward, and the US bond yield curve shifted slightly downward. Except for the 10 - year Chinese bond yield rising 7BP, the overall change was small. The 3 - month and 2 - 3 - year yields decreased by 1 - 2BP, and the 1 - year and 5 - year yields rose 1BP. The US bond yield decreased by more than 5BP overall, with the 2 - year yield down 14BP (the largest decline) and the 3 - 5 - year yields down 10BP [19] 2. Real Estate High - Frequency Data Tracking - **First - Tier Cities**: The overall transaction volume of commercial housing in first - tier cities remained low and volatile. The average daily transaction area was 61,400 square meters, and the average daily transaction volume was 544 units. August 29th was the weekly high, with a transaction area of 73,200 square meters and 640 units, also the highest in the past two weeks; August 25th was the weekly low, with a transaction area of 56,400 square meters and 500 units [26][27] - **Ten Major Cities**: The transaction data of commercial housing in ten major cities rebounded compared with last week. The average daily transaction area was about 113,900 square meters, an increase of 19,000 square meters per day compared with last week. In 2021, the average daily transaction area was about 254,900 square meters [27] - **30 Large and Medium - Sized Cities**: The transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities remained at a historical low. The average daily transaction area was about 240,000 square meters, and the average daily transaction volume was about 2225 units. August 28th was the weekly peak [27]

Market Overview - In August, driven by a series of policies, market risk appetite increased, leading the Shanghai Composite Index to break a 10-year high, with a continued stock-bond seesaw effect [1][25] - Bond funds and deposits from residents and enterprises flowed into higher-yielding non-bank sectors, suppressing bond market sentiment, while the 10-year government bond yield exceeded 1.8% [1][25] - The average daily trading volume of government bond futures in August was 417,000 contracts, a month-on-month increase of 39.41% [5] Economic Indicators - Domestic real estate investment, sales, and price declines continued to expand, indicating weak demand [1][25] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain reasonable liquidity in the market, which will provide some support for the bond market, especially for short-term government bond futures [1][25] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is experiencing a shift as funds continue to flow into non-bank sectors, which may lead to further weakening of government bond futures prices [1][25] - The Ministry of Finance has resumed the collection of value-added tax on government bonds and financial bonds, which may increase the tax burden on new bonds and widen the price differences across varieties [1][25] Financing and Supply - As of the end of August, the bond market's outstanding scale exceeded 191.71 trillion yuan, with net financing of 17,571 billion yuan in August, maintaining a high level [18] - The government is expected to continue high levels of bond financing, with a cumulative increase of 10.2 trillion yuan in government and local government bonds by August [21] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds will continue, with bond market sentiment likely to remain suppressed as funds flow into higher-yielding sectors [1][25] - The central bank's monetary policy will play a crucial role in stabilizing the economy and supporting the bond market amid external uncertainties and domestic demand weaknesses [1][25]