1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Nickel and Stainless Steel - The expectation of the nickel ore end in the long - term is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices. Global refined nickel inventories are increasing marginally. Stainless steel supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [4][5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has a fast short - term warehouse receipt clearance, but the upside space is limited. Polysilicon should maintain a short - selling strategy. The fundamentals of both show an oversupply situation [30][34][35]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, showing a weak oscillation. Opportunities for short - selling at high prices and reverse spreads should be awaited [62][63][64]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production, and the strategy is mainly based on spread expressions. There are potential long - term bullish factors. Soybean oil is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, with potential upward space after the third quarter [88][89][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The logic of the ore end is dull, and the smelting end restricts the upside space. The global refined nickel inventory is increasing marginally, and the nickel - iron is in a state of surplus and inventory accumulation. The price of nickel is affected by factors such as the expected increase in Indonesian quotas and the possible removal of the Philippine raw ore export ban [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,437 tons to 36,471 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons. The mid - June nickel - iron inventory increased by 58% year - on - year and 10% month - on - month [6][7]. - **Market News**: There are various events such as the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, and the shutdown of a cold - rolling mill [10]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Production and imports are decreasing marginally, the inventory pressure remains, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. In the long term, the price center may be difficult to lift significantly [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total social inventory of stainless steel increased by 1.04% week - on - week, with increases in both cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [7]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: The industrial silicon futures rebounded slightly this week, and the spot price remained stable. The futures closed at 7,390 yuan/ton on Friday [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The industry inventory is de - stocking again. The supply is expected to increase as factories in Xinjiang and Sichuan continue to resume production. The demand from downstream industries has short - term increases in some aspects but is still mainly based on rigid demand [31][32]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The follow - up focus is on the warehouse receipt situation. The high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [34]. Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: The polysilicon futures declined significantly this week, and the spot price is also expected to decrease [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The upstream inventory is slightly de - stocking. The supply is expected to increase as some factories resume production, while the terminal demand is declining, and the silicon wafer production is expected to be adjusted downward [31][32][33]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The price is expected to continue to decline towards the real cost line [35]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The main contract of carbonate lithium oscillated downward. The 2507 contract closed at 59,820 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 60,400 yuan/ton [62]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing as the production and operating rate of the smelting end are growing. The demand is weakening as new energy vehicle sales show no significant increase, and the energy storage demand is expected to decline after reaching a peak in May. The inventory is accumulating [63]. - **Future Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - selling at high prices after the long - buying intention of the near - month contract is clear and reverse spreads after the end of June are recommended [64][65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.86% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: The production in Malaysia is expected to be flat or slightly decrease in June. The export is strong, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in June. It is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term strategy is based on spread expressions, and long - buying can be considered at low levels before the fourth quarter [89]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.75% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: Internationally, the US EPA's policy will lead to an increase in the demand for soybean oil. Domestically, the inventory is accumulating currently but may reach a peak in July. It is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, and long - buying opportunities can be observed in the fourth quarter [90][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Silicon Manganese - This week, the silicon manganese market performed moderately. The futures price fluctuated weakly at the beginning of the week and reached over 5,700 yuan/ton on Friday. The cost side is well - supported, with relatively firm manganese ore prices and no expected further decline in chemical coke prices in the short term. The manganese ore market in Tianjin Port has stopped falling and started to rise, while that in Qinzhou Port is consolidating. The supply side has minor output fluctuations, and the demand side is expected to weaken slightly as the market enters the off - season. The mainstream steel tender price is around 5,650 - 5,730 yuan/ton [5]. - The short - term unilateral strategy suggests operating within the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton, selling short when the price rebounds above 5,800 yuan/ton and buying long lightly when it falls below 5,500 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy is recommended. A 07 - 09 positive spread operation is suggested for bilateral trading, and a 1/3 position should be gradually established for hedging when the price rebounds to 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton [8]. 2.2 Silicon Ferroalloy - The spot market of silicon ferroalloy was weak this week. The futures price of the main 09 contract fluctuated weakly in the range of 5,150 - 5,280 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel tender price is expected to be 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, there is a possibility of increased supply as manufacturers' profits improve after price corrections, while the demand side faces risks such as a marginal decline in hot metal production and a rapid decline in coil demand [15][16]. - The short - term unilateral strategy is mainly range - bound operation, selling short at high prices. Attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production, cost support, and continuous decline in hot metal production and weakening cost side [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silicon Manganese Core Views and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Performance - Futures: The main contract price of silicon manganese fluctuated downward this week, ranging from 5,500 - 5,750 yuan/ton [5]. - Spot: The market was in a wait - and - see mood. The cost side was well - supported, and the manganese ore market in Tianjin Port stopped falling and rose, while that in Qinzhou Port was consolidating [5]. 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: Overall output had minor fluctuations. Some factories in Inner Mongolia increased production, while others reduced it due to losses. In Ningxia, the start - up was relatively stable, and in the southern region, the start - up rate remained low [5]. - Demand: As the market enters the off - season, demand is expected to weaken slightly. The current price and demand have basically bottomed out, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future [5]. 3.1.3 Influencing Factors - Macro: The 2025 Lujiazui Forum focused on key issues in the financial field, and the central bank governor put forward views on the evolution of the international monetary system, etc., with a downward impact on the market [11]. - Demand: The weekly demand for silicon manganese in five major steel types increased by 1.28% week - on - week, and the national silicon manganese output increased by 1.86% week - on - week. The blast furnace start - up rate and other indicators also increased [11]. - Supply: The start - up rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises increased by 1.09% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 460 tons [11]. - Inventory: The inventory of 63 independent silicon manganese enterprises increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week [11]. - Basis: The 09 basis was - 66 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60.61% [11]. - Cost and Profit: The northern profit was - 169.88 yuan, with a week - on - week decline of 5.57%, and the southern profit was - 490.94 yuan, with a week - on - week decline of 15.49% [11]. 3.1.4 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Short - term range operation (5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton), sell short when the price rebounds above 5,800 yuan/ton, and buy long lightly when it falls below 5,500 yuan/ton. Medium - to - long - term short - selling layout [8]. - Bilateral: 07 - 09 positive spread operation [8]. - Hedging: Gradually establish a 1/3 position when the price rebounds to 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Silicon Ferroalloy Core Views and Strategy Recommendations 3.2.1 Market Performance - Futures: The main 09 contract of silicon ferroalloy showed a weak oscillation pattern, fluctuating widely in the range of 5,150 - 5,280 yuan/ton [15]. - Spot: The spot market was weak. The mainstream steel tender price is expected to be 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: There is a possibility of increased supply as manufacturers' profits improve after price corrections, especially in Ningxia where there is a strong expectation of resuming production in June [16]. - Demand: Short - term high hot metal production in steel mills supports the demand for silicon ferroalloy, but there are risks of marginal decline in hot metal production and rapid decline in coil demand [16]. 3.2.3 Influencing Factors - Macro: The Fed's June meeting maintained the interest rate unchanged. Although policy uncertainty decreased, officials lowered growth forecasts and raised inflation expectations, with a downward impact on the market [18]. - Demand: The start - up rate of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises increased by 1.34% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 395 tons [18]. - Supply: The start - up rate of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises increased by 1.34% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 395 tons [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises decreased by 2.74% week - on - week [18]. - Basis: The 05 basis was - 100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8% [18]. - Cost and Profit: The cost in Ningxia decreased by 18 yuan, and the profit was - 309 yuan, with a week - on - week decline of 0.33%. The profit in Shaanxi was - 403 yuan, with a week - on - week decline of 23.62% [18]. 3.2.4 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, selling short at high prices. Pay attention to changes in hot metal production, cost support, and continuous decline in hot metal production and weakening cost side [16]. 3.3 Silicon Manganese Data Tracking and Analysis 3.3.1 Price Data - Futures: The closing price of the main Sm2509 contract increased by 2.56% week - on - week, the trading volume increased by 117.64%, and the open interest decreased by 10.69% [21]. - Spot: The southern spot price remained unchanged, while the northern price increased by 1.45% [21]. - Basis and Spread: The basis increased by 60.61% week - on - week, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 3.45% [21]. 3.3.2 Other Data - Output: The start - up increased slightly this week, and the output continued to rise [32]. - Demand: The steel mill start - up increased slightly, supporting the demand for silicon manganese [38]. - Inventory: The inventory of steel mills and alloy plants increased slightly, and the de - stocking was slow [41]. - Manganese Ore: The port inventory increased slightly, and the far - month supply is expected to be loose. The import volume increased significantly, the spot price of the forward contract was flat, and the domestic high - low grade price difference strengthened [45][52][61]. - Cost and Profit: The north - south cost was inverted, the cost decreased slightly this week, and the decline rate slowed down [74]. 3.4 Silicon Ferroalloy Data Tracking and Analysis 3.4.1 Price Data - Futures: The closing price of the main Sf2509 contract increased by 2.08% week - on - week, the trading volume decreased by 11.72%, and the open interest decreased by 0.82% [80]. - Spot: The market price in Ningxia increased by 1.92%, and the trading price in Hebei increased by 2.78% [80]. - Basis and Spread: The basis decreased by 8% week - on - week, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 250%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 25% [80]. 3.4.2 Other Data - Output: The start - up rate increased by 4.27% week - on - week, and the monthly output decreased by 5.76% [82]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory decreased by 2.74% week - on - week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 1.18% [82]. - Demand: The demand increased by 1.82% week - on - week [82]. - Cost and Profit: The cost in Ningxia decreased by 0.33%, and the profit increased by 5.50% [82]. - Others: The basis converged slightly, the trading volume was active this week, the open interest increased slightly, the supply decreased slightly, the demand declined, the inventory decreased slightly but was still under pressure, the electricity price in Ningxia decreased, the cost continued to decline this week, and the profit decline rate expanded [83][88][91]

下游需求表现一般 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 EB港口到港及提货：华东苯乙烯到港量2.29万吨（-0.50）；华东苯乙烯港口提货量3.66万吨（-0.04）。 EB供应：苯乙烯工厂开工率79.01%（+5.20%），其中：华东苯乙烯开工率82.44%（+6.84%），山东苯乙烯开工率76.50% （+0.34%），华南苯乙烯开工率81.59%（+0.00%）。 EB下游开工及成品库存：EPS开工率53.63%（-1.84%），PS开工率58.70%（+0.40%），ABS开工率63.97%（-0.11%）， UPR开工率30.00%（+0.00%），丁苯橡胶开工率74.09%（+3.44%）；EPS样本企业库存27700吨（-2400），PS样本企 业库存101740吨（+5560），ABS样本企业库存209000吨（-9000），丁苯橡胶样本企业库存22110吨（+910）。 苯乙烯周报 | 2025-06-22 EB及纯苯库存：苯乙烯华东港口库存66300吨（-13700），苯乙烯工厂库存188782吨（+4149），纯苯华东港口库存 15.30万吨（+0.40）。 纯苯供应：纯苯开工率80.36%（ ...

聚烯烃周报 | 2025-06-22 地缘冲突提振，聚烯烃高位整理 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7415元/吨（-47），PP主力合约收盘价为7242元/吨（-32），LL华北现货为7480 元/吨（+30），LL华东现货为7450元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7290元/吨（+10），LL华北基差为65元/吨（+77），LL 华东基差为35元/吨（+27）， PP华东基差为48元/吨（+42）。 以色列伊朗地缘局势紧张，原油与丙烷价格大幅走高，聚烯烃成本端支撑增强明显。短停检修装置较多，未来预 计陆续开车，短期供应压力不大，镇海炼化4线50万吨/PP装置预计近期投产，未来供应有增加趋势。农膜开工季 节性淡季，需求端持续低迷，预计开工持稳，整体运行负荷处于低位。包装膜开工率同比偏低，塑编开工走低， 终端备货意愿偏低，刚需采购为主。生产企业库存小幅累积，中游贸易商环节库存走低，聚烯烃维持供需两弱格 局，宏观面不确定性较强。 策略 单边：中性。 跨期：无。 风险 宏观政治经济、原油价格波动、下游需求恢复情况 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+ ...

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-06-22 消费端存在不确定性，碳酸锂盘面偏弱运行 核心观点 现货市场 价格方面：碳酸锂期货本周偏弱运行，主力合约2509本周五收于58900元/吨，本周跌幅为1.81%，持仓量为354347 手。根据SMM数据，周五电池级现货均价6.0万元/吨，较前一周下跌1.23%，工业级现货均价5.9万元/吨，较上周 下跌1.26%，目前期货贴水电碳1500元/吨。现货市场新货流通较少，主因盐厂捂盘惜售，价格难以达到出货预期。 截至本周五，主力合约2509持仓为354347手，较前一交易日减少8636手，所有合约总持仓647277手，较前一交易 日增加49129手。截至本周五，碳酸锂当日仓单27793手，较前日减少2164手。 供应端：据 SMM 统计，周度产量小幅增加，周度总产量 1.85 万吨，环比增加 335 吨，其中辉石产碳酸锂 8978 吨，环比增加 270 吨，云母产碳酸锂 4882 吨，环比增加 60 吨，盐湖产碳酸锂 3017 吨，环比增加 40 吨，回收 产碳酸锂 1585 吨。本周碳酸锂产量预计呈小幅上涨趋势，代工企业略有增量，青海地区产量增长，多数在产企业 维持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] Core Viewpoints - Energy crisis concerns are premature, and the spot price of alumina is rapidly declining [1] - Aluminum consumption shows marginal weakening, and inventory reduction is slowing down, but the absolute inventory is at a historical low. Alumina prices are in a downward trend, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is expanding [6] - The cost of alumina remains stable, while production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is falling rapidly, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, making the price more likely to fall than rise [6] - The supply of scrap aluminum for aluminum alloy is tight, and the smelting loss is at a historically high level. Cost support is emerging, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum price increased by 1.79% to $2,561.5/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract increased by 1.06% to 20,465 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$0.42/ton last week to $11.16/ton [1] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained basically stable and will maintain a steady and slight increase in the future. The built - in capacity is 45.2 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.15 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,000 tons, and the operating rate is 97.7% [1] - **Demand**: According to SMM data, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 52.5% compared with last week, the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 1.06% to 69.36%, the output of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 0.57 million tons to 372,470 tons, and the average operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged at 63.2% [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. As of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 342,900 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from the same period last week [1] - **Profit**: As of June 13, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 17,000 yuan/ton, the immediate production profit was about 3,750 yuan/ton, and the marginal maximum production cost was 18,500 yuan/ton [2] Alumina - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the main alumina contract price decreased by 0.17% to 2,890 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Guangxi decreased week - on - week, while the FOB price of imported alumina remained unchanged at $370/ton [3] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, according to阿拉丁 data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 112.92 million tons, the operating capacity was 93.05 million tons, a weekly increase of 400,000 tons, and the operating rate was 82.4% [3] - **Cost**: As of the week of June 20, the quoted price of bauxite on the website remained unchanged at $74.5/ton. The seaborne freight dropped from $27/ton to $22/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the national alumina inventory was 3.84 million tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 2.826 million tons, a weekly increase of 18,000 tons; the platform and port inventory was 906,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,000 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons [4] - **Profit**: As of June 20, 2025, based on imported ore at $75/ton, the full production cost of marginal high - cost enterprises was about 2,900 yuan/ton, and the production profit was about 350 yuan/ton. The production profit using domestic ore was about 300 yuan/ton. Alumina imports started to incur losses [4] Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: As of June 20, 2025, the Jiangxi Baotai quotation was 19,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [5] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 23,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons; the in - plant inventory was 82,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons; the total inventory was 106,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [5] Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Be neutral on aluminum and cautiously bearish on alumina [7] - **Arbitrage**: Conduct calendar spread arbitrage on aluminum, going long on AD11 and short on AL11 [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side has an increase, the consumption side is weak, and the total inventory continues to rise. Most manufacturers face significant cost pressure, but the short - term price has stabilized. The price may oscillate weakly at the bottom [1][2][4]. - For polysilicon, recent spot transactions are scarce, the fundamentals are weak, and after the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game has weakened. Polysilicon is still in the process of bottom - seeking [4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, downstream demand was mainly for essential needs, spot market transactions were average, and the futures market oscillated within a range. The spot price stabilized. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 441 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged week - on - week. The closing price of the main contract 2509 on the previous Friday was 7390 yuan/ton, a 1.5% increase from the last trading day of the previous week. The total open interest of industrial silicon futures was about 577,000 lots [1]. - **Supply**: This week, industrial silicon supply continued to increase. The number of open furnaces in Xinjiang increased significantly, decreased in the Northeast, and remained stable in the Southwest. The total number of open furnaces increased by 5. The weekly output of sample manufacturers reached 36,600 tons, a 1655 - ton increase from the previous week. It is expected that the output in June will increase to about 350,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: Overall market demand remained weak this week. The polysilicon production increased slightly to 24,500 tons, a 700 - ton increase week - on - week. The overall operating rate of the organic silicon industry remained at 70.29%, with little change, and the weekly DMC output was 49,000 tons, a slight increase of 1400 tons. The aluminum alloy industry's demand for industrial silicon was mainly based on needs, and the order volume decreased slightly. In May 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 55,700 tons, an 8% decrease month - on - month and a 22% decrease year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 272,400 tons, a 10% decrease year - on - year [2]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the statistical inventory of the silicon metal industry was 784,500 tons (including registered warehouse receipts), showing a slight decrease. The port inventory was 131,000 tons, the delivery inventory was 428,000 tons, and the factory inventory of sample enterprises was 225,500 tons. As of May 20, there were 54,623 registered warehouse receipts, equivalent to 273,115 tons of physical goods. The total supply - demand inventory may still increase, but the statistical inventory decreased slightly due to changes in the inventory structure [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: Electricity prices in some northwestern regions and the southwestern flood season decreased, and the prices of silica and silicon coal on the raw material side were unstable. The overall cost support was weak. Although the cost decreased due to the reduction in raw materials and southwestern electricity prices, most enterprises still faced significant cost pressure and were in a loss - making state, except for self - supplied power production enterprises [3]. Strategy - Overall, the supply side of industrial silicon has an increase, the consumption side is weak, and the total inventory continues to rise. Most manufacturers face significant cost pressure, but the short - term price has stabilized. The price may oscillate weakly at the bottom. It is recommended to focus on whether there are policy impacts at the price bottom. If the price rebounds, sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises can sell - hedge at high prices [4]. Polysilicon Spot Market - **Price**: According to SMM statistics, this week, the price index of N - type polysilicon was 34 yuan/kg. The price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 33 - 36 yuan/kg, the mainstream price of mixed feedstock dropped to about 33 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type granular silicon was 31.5 yuan/kg. The price of polysilicon continued to decline. The main contract 2507 of polysilicon dropped significantly during the week, and the closing price on Friday was 31,700 yuan/ton, a 5.92% decrease from the previous week. The total open interest was 181,500 lots [4]. - **Supply**: Currently, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads. After the resumption of production in some bases, the weekly output increased. This week, the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,500 tons, a 700 - ton increase week - on - week. In June, some southwestern bases resumed production, leading to an increase in supply. However, there may be some production cuts in the northwest in the future, and the total supply in July may not change much. Currently, the price is low, and manufacturers face significant cost pressure, so the supply is uncertain [4][5]. - **Demand**: This week, the silicon wafer output was 12.9 GW, a 1.50% decrease week - on - week. The price of N - type 18X silicon wafers was 0.88 - 0.92 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210RN silicon wafers was 1.07 - 1.3 yuan/piece. The price continued to decline, and the prices of second - and third - tier small factories were lowered. The market sentiment was still weak. The silicon wafer production plan in June did not change significantly, and some first - tier enterprises intended to cut production, but the amplitude was limited. The terminal demand was weak [5]. - **Inventory**: According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the silicon wafer inventory also decreased slightly. The latest polysilicon inventory was 262,000 tons, a 4.7% decrease month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.74 GW, a 3.1% decrease month - on - month. This week, the warehouse receipts changed little, with a total of 2600 lots, equivalent to 7800 tons. After the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game weakened [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon changed little. The estimated tax - free cash cost of granular silicon could be controlled at 25,000 yuan/ton. The tax - free cash cost of rod - shaped silicon varied among enterprises, ranging from 30,000 to 45,000 yuan/ton, and the cash cost at the supply - demand balance point was about 32,000 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Overall, recent spot transactions of polysilicon are scarce, the fundamentals are weak, and after the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game has weakened. Polysilicon is still in the process of bottom - seeking. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of joint production cuts and policy disturbances. The strategy is range - bound operation, and sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For caustic soda: Cautious short - selling hedging [3] - For PVC: Neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong has been continuously decreasing, and the market remains weak. Although the plant - level inventory has decreased, it is still at a high level. The futures are deeply in contango, and the spot price is falling. In the short term, it follows the basis repair logic, and there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profit in the later stage [1][2][3]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC has increased due to the rise in the price of upstream raw material ethylene driven by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. However, the supply - demand fundamentals have not significantly improved. The supply pressure is large, and the domestic demand is weak. Although the export is increasing in the short term, there are uncertainties in the Indian import anti - dumping policy [6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Caustic Soda Price & Spread - As of June 20, 2025, the SH main contract closing price of caustic soda futures was 2,256 yuan/ton (-32), the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 275 yuan/ton (-31). The spot price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 810 yuan/ton (-20), and that of 50% liquid caustic soda was 1,330 yuan/ton (-50) [1]. II. PVC Price & Spread - As of June 20, 2025, the main contract closing price of PVC futures was 4,903 yuan/ton (+3), the East China basis was - 113 yuan/ton (+17), and the South China basis was - 23 yuan/ton (+27). The spot price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 4,790 yuan/ton (+20), in South China was 4,880 yuan/ton (+30). The spot price of ethylene - based PVC in East China was 5,000 yuan/ton (+50), and in South China was 4,920 yuan/ton (+0) [5]. III. Cost - Profit - **Caustic Soda**: As of June 20, 2025, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 837.83 yuan/ton (-62.50), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 205.03 yuan/ton (-62.50), the single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,540.15 yuan/ton (-62.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **PVC**: As of June 20, 2025, the production gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 493.98 yuan/ton (+17.77), the production gross profit of ethylene - based PVC was - 640.42 yuan/ton (-79.88), and the export profit of PVC was - 10 US dollars/ton (-1) [5]. IV. Caustic Soda Supply - The caustic soda operating rate was 81.20% (+0.30%), and the weekly output was 79.28 tons (+0.23). Recently, there are both plant overhauls and restarts in Shandong, and the overall operating rate has increased slightly month - on - month. In the later stage, there are plans to put into production new capacities in Gansu Yaowang and Tianjin Bohua, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase [1][2]. V. Liquid Chlorine Price and Liquid Chlorine Downstream - As of June 20, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 1 yuan/ton (+0). The operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and dichloromethane have increased, and the weekly output of chloroform has also increased [2]. VI. PVC Supply - The upstream calcium carbide average operating load was 63.10% (+1.51%), the PVC operating rate was 78.62% (-0.63%), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 80.43% (-1.34%), and the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 73.81% (+1.22). The loss due to shutdown and overhaul was 12.57 tons (+0.37). Although the overall operating rate has decreased month - on - month, the output is still at a high level, and there are plans to put into production new capacities from June to July, so the supply pressure is still large [5][6]. VII. Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The operating rate of the main downstream product, alumina, was 80.74% (-0.13%), the weekly output was 171.50 tons (-0.30), and the port inventory was 6.80 tons (+1.80). The operating rates of non - aluminum downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, viscose staple fiber, white cardboard, and broad - leaf pulp have shown different degrees of decline or increase [1]. VIII. PVC Downstream Demand - The comprehensive operating rate of PVC downstream was 44.31% (-1.49%), among which the operating rates of PVC pipes, profiles, and films have all decreased. The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.79 tons (+0.96). The domestic demand is weak, but the export orders have increased month - on - month, and the Indian BIS standard policy has been postponed, which supports the short - term export demand [5][6]. IX. Caustic Soda & PVC Inventory Data - **Caustic Soda**: The domestic liquid caustic soda plant - level inventory was 36.65 tons (-3.88), and the flake caustic soda plant - level inventory was 2.85 tons (+0.00) [2]. - **PVC**: The PVC plant - level inventory was 40.16 tons (+0.51), and the social inventory was 35.51 tons (+0.03), including 31.23 tons in East China (+0.01) and 4.28 tons in South China (+0.02) [5].

| | 金口期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JIDGHI FILLINER | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | DCE豆粕: 01 | 6月20日 | 元/吨 | 3097 | 3104 | -7.00 | -0.23% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 6月20日 | 元/吨 | 2768 | 2769 | -1.00 | -0.04% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 6月20日 | 元/吨 | 3067 | 3077 | -10.00 | -0.32% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 6月20日 | 元/吨 | 2395 | 2428 | -33.00 | -1.36% | | 期票 | CZCE采用: 05 | 6月20日 | 元/吨 | 2389 | 2410 | -21.00 | -0.87% | | | CZCE # HB: 09 | 6月20日 | 元/吨 ...

聚乙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 添加客服 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：伊以冲突进一步激化，带动国际油价上涨。受此影响，本周聚乙烯期货拉涨明显。截至2025年6 月20日收盘，L2509合约报收于7415元/吨，较上周收盘上涨2.16%。 基本面：供应端，本周万华、浙石化、中天合创、鄂能化装置停车，榆林、恒力装置重启，产量环比- 0.60%至61.29万吨，产能利用率环比-0.48%至78.69%，较上周变化不大。需求端，本周下游制品平均 开工率环比-0.06%，持续季节性下降。库存方面，生产企业库存环比-1.83%至49.94万吨，社会库存环 比-4.56%至55.93万吨，总库存压力不大。成本利润方面，本周油制LLDPE成本上涨至7756元/吨，油 制工艺亏损加深；煤制LLDPE利润维稳在5848元/吨，煤制利润小幅走阔 ...