Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, showing a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Silicomanganese: The rating is not clearly given in the provided content Core Views - The steel market has weak market sentiment, but there is cost support below, and the overall market continues the range - bound pattern. The iron ore market is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a range - bound state after the price corrects the discount. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are recommended to try long positions at low prices [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined and then rebounded today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased this week, while production increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and the de - stocking accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the steel mill profits are marginally improving. The decline in blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron has stabilized. The overall domestic demand in the downstream industry is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The market sentiment is still weak, and the market continues the range - bound pattern [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was strongly range - bound today. The global shipment is strong, and it is expected to remain at a high level. The domestic arrival volume is also strong, and the port inventory has continued to increase significantly. The terminal demand in the off - season is at a low level, but molten iron has stabilized at a low level this week. The steel mill inventory is at a low level, and there is a certain restocking expectation. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the short - term market trend is expected to be range - bound [2] Coke - The coke price was range - bound during the day. There is still an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, which is expected to be implemented after New Year's Day. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has slightly increased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price was mainly range - bound during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand for raw materials still has resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices. The coking coal futures price is at a discount, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The price is likely to be range - bound [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price was strongly range - bound during the day. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. There is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory. The demand for iron and steel has decreased seasonally. The weekly production and inventory of silicomanganese have slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price was strongly range - bound during the day. There is an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee, and there is an expectation of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The demand for iron and steel has rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand has decreased, but the overall demand still has resilience. The ferrosilicon supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment ratings is provided in the reports [1][3][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - Current steel production continues to decline and inventory is being reduced. Production cuts support steel prices, and with the stabilization of coking coal prices, steel prices are recovering from the low level. However, due to weak demand, the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate in a range, with rebar fluctuating between 3000 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3150 - 3350. The rebar production has stopped falling, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The 1 - 5 positive spread can gradually exit the market. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the 5 - month rebar - iron ore ratio expansion [1] Iron Ore - In the short term, it is difficult for the iron ore supply - demand contradiction to form a trend - based decline. The price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to mainly operate within the short - term range of 760 - 810 for the 05 contract. Future attention should be paid to the BHP negotiation situation, molten iron trend, and steel mill restocking rhythm [3] Coke and Coking Coal - The supply and demand of coke have weakened. After three rounds of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the rebound driven by expectations is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to take profit on the long positions of the coke 2605 contract and switch to short - selling on rallies. For coking coal, the rebound expectation has been overdrawn in advance, and it is also recommended to take profit on long positions and switch to short - selling on rallies [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - For ferrosilicon, although the supply - demand contradiction needs to be alleviated, the production cut expectation has been priced in, and the improvement expectation on the demand side in the follow - up is insufficient. The price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5700 in the short term. For ferromanganese, the current supply - demand has been priced in, and there is no clear trend - based rebound signal. It is recommended to consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia and mainly conduct short - term operations [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3310, 3170, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3280, 3180, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2950 yuan/ton with no change, and the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton with no change. The profits of East China and North China hot - rolled coils are - 3 and - 99 yuan/ton respectively, both decreasing by 3 yuan/ton [1] Supply - The daily average molten iron output is 226.6 tons with no change. The output of five major steel products is 796.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or - 0.1%. Rebar output is 184.4 tons, an increase of 2.7 tons or 1.5% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1258.0 tons, a decrease of 36.8 tons or - 2.8%. Rebar inventory is 452.5 tons, a decrease of 18.3 tons or - 4.0% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.3 tons, a decrease of 1.3 tons or - 13.9%. The apparent consumption of five major steel products is 835.3 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons or - 0.2% [1] Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc. have increased slightly, with increases of 0.1% - 0.3%. The 05 - contract basis of various iron ore powders has also increased, with increases of 3.0% - 5.0% [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 76.7 tons or - 2.8%. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3464.5 tons, a decrease of 128.0 tons or - 3.6% [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 226.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons or - 1.2%. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) is 313.5 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons or - 1.8% [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 15682.46 tons, an increase of 169.8 tons or 1.1%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8724.0 tons, a decrease of 110.3 tons or - 1.2% [3] Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remain unchanged. The coke 01 contract price is 1589 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or - 0.8%, and the 05 contract price is 1739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan or - 0.4% [5] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 62.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or - 0.5%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons or 0.7% [5] Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 226.6 tons, with no change [5] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 912.6 tons, an increase of 12.2 tons or 1.4%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 92.2 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons or 1.3% [5] Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remains unchanged, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan or - 0.5%. The coking coal 01 contract price is 1047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan or - 0.7%, and the 05 contract price is 1132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan or - 0.74% [5] Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 853.4 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons or - 0.3%, and the clean coal output is 438.2 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or - 0.1% [5] Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines is 126.5 tons, an increase of 6.6 tons or 5.2%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1036.3 tons, an increase of 3.4 tons or 0.3% [5] Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract is 5692.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.0 yuan. The spot prices of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, etc. have different changes, with the Inner Mongolia price remaining unchanged and the Qinghai price increasing by 1.0% [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of Inner Mongolia is 5772.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.7 yuan or - 0.1%. The production profit of Inner Mongolia is - 202.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.2% [6] Supply - The ferrosilicon production (weekly) is 100 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or - 1.3%. The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises (weekly) is 29.5%, a decrease of 0.8% or - 2.6% [6] Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (weekly) is 18 tons, with no change. The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output (weekly) is 226.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons or - 1.2% [6] Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises (weekly) is 6.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or - 2.4% [6] Ferromanganese Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract is 5846.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan or 0.24%. The spot prices of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, etc. remain unchanged [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of Inner Mongolia is 5492.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.0 yuan or - 0.9%. The production profit of Inner Mongolia has a certain change [6] Supply - The ferromanganese production (weekly) is 193 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons or 2.3% [6] Demand - The ferromanganese demand (calculated by Steel Union) is 113 tons, an increase of 0.0 tons or 0.24% [6] Inventory Changes - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises (weekly) is 38.6 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.4% [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the tightening of customs clearance has led to a continued increase in soybean meal prices in the domestic market [1][3]. - The Dalian soybean meal futures market has shown an upward trend, with the main contract 2605 opening higher and closing at 2760 yuan, an increase of 32 yuan [2]. - Domestic soybean meal spot prices have risen by 20-40 yuan per ton, driven by favorable weather conditions for soybean growth in Brazil and strong expectations for soybean production [3]. Group 2 - The Dalian corn futures market has also experienced a rise, with the main contract 2603 opening at 2191 yuan and closing at 2222 yuan, an increase of 33 yuan [4]. - Domestic corn prices have shown slight adjustments, with procurement prices remaining stable in Shandong, while the selling progress in North China is nearing 40% [5]. - The market sentiment for corn is bullish, with recent high demand for imported corn and expectations of breaking the current stalemate in the market [5].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月26日，沪铜期货主力合约日内大涨4%，现报99110元/吨。 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for rapeseed meal futures experienced a rebound, reaching a peak of 2403.00 yuan, with a current price of 2396.00 yuan, reflecting a 2.70% increase [1] - Market sentiment for rapeseed meal is cautious, with participants adopting a wait-and-see approach, primarily following the trends of soybean meal [2] - The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to be tight in the first quarter, alleviating inventory pressure and showing some resilience compared to soybean meal [2] Group 2 - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a phase of range-bound fluctuations, influenced by the movements of soybean meal and awaiting the outcome of anti-dumping rulings on Canadian canola imports [2] - Current demand for rapeseed meal is entering a seasonal lull, with low inventory levels providing support for prices, while ongoing trade negotiations between China and Canada introduce uncertainty [2]

Report Overview - The report is a commodity options daily report dated December 25, 2025, covering agricultural products, energy chemicals, black metals, and metals [1]. 1. Agricultural Products Futures Market - Corn (c2603) closed at 2189, down 7, with a trading volume of 261,112 (down 91,811) and an open interest of 997,444 (up 10,708) [1]. - Other products like bean meal, rapeseed meal, etc., also had their respective price movements, trading volumes, and open interest changes [1]. Option Market - Corn's option volume was 54,315 (down 3,441) for the main contract, with a PCR of 0.3358 (down 0.0305) [3]. - Similar data was provided for other agricultural products' options [3]. Option Quantification Indicators - Corn's main contract (c2603) had a remaining trading days of 38, a flat - volatility of 9.66% (up 0.39%), and a 60 - day quantile of 46.67% [4]. - Other products also had their specific option quantification data [4]. 2. Energy Chemicals Futures Market - PTA (ta2605) closed at 5152, up 58, with a trading volume of 1,612,553 (down 120,477) and an open interest of 1,409,564 (up 88,099) [5]. - Other energy chemical products had different price, volume, and open - interest changes [5]. Option Market - PTA's option volume for the main contract was 514,719 (down 30,260), with a PCR of 0.4282 (down 0.075) [6]. - Other products' option data was also presented [6][7]. Option Quantification Indicators - PTA's main contract (ta2602) had 11 remaining trading days, a flat - volatility of 27.55% (up 1.54%), and a 60 - day quantile of 98.33% [8]. - Other energy chemical products had their own option quantification indicators [8]. 3. Black Metals Futures Market - Iron ore (i2605) closed at 778.5, down 1.0, with a trading volume of 145,809 (down 70,468) and an open interest of 567,104 (up 13,387) [9]. - Other black metal products had their price, volume, and open - interest changes [9]. Option Market - Iron ore's option volume for the main contract was 40,033 (down 20,001), with a PCR of 1.517 (up 0.0749) [9]. - Other products' option data was provided [9]. Option Quantification Indicators - Iron ore's main contract (i2602) had 16 remaining trading days, a flat - volatility of 14.9% (up 0.2%), and a 60 - day quantile of 5.0% [10]. - Other black metal products had their option quantification data [10]. 4. Metals Futures Market - Gold (au2602) closed at 1008.76, down 5.92, with a trading volume of 220,136 (down 131,165) and an open interest of 182,179 (down 4,619) [11]. - Other metal products had different price, volume, and open - interest changes [11]. Option Market - Gold's option volume for the main contract was 56,343 (down 71,581), with a PCR of 0.3379 (down 0.3789) [12]. - Other products' option data was also included [12]. Option Quantification Indicators - Gold's main contract (au2602) had 20 remaining trading days, a flat - volatility of 22.53% (down 2.78%), and a 60 - day quantile of 63.33% [13]. - Other metal products had their specific option quantification indicators [13].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance with platinum rising over 8% [1] - Lithium carbonate and Shanghai silver both increased by over 6% [1] - Aluminum oxide rose by over 4%, while international copper and Shanghai copper both increased by over 3% [1] - Soybean meal saw an increase of nearly 3% [1] Group 2 - On the downside, coking coal and coking coke both fell by over 2% [1] - Methanol and rebar experienced declines of over 1% [1]

油料日报 | 2025-12-26 花生出货压力依存，盘面震荡运行 策略 中性 风险 无 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4125.00元/吨，较前日变化+19.00元/吨，幅度+0.46%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05+115，较前日变化-19，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场昨日大豆出现上涨，普调40元/吨，主因产区农户余粮不足惜售，贸易商当前也是持货待 涨。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白 39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.08元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.08元/斤； 黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.25元/斤；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白 41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.26元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.28元/斤。南 方产区大豆大稳小动，主因高品质豆稀缺。今日南方产区杂花豆，蛋白42-43%，安徽淮北百善报价2.65元/斤；河 南周口报价2.60元/斤。销区市场目前以随用随采为主，目前库存 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-26 EG供应回升下仍承压 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3818元/吨（较前一交易日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%），EG华东市场现货价 3635元/吨（较前一交易日变动+37元/吨，幅度+1.03%），EG华东现货基差-8元/吨（环比+5元/吨）. 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-94美元/吨（环比+16美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-949 元/吨（环比+97元/吨）。 风险 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副 港到港量3万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.8万吨，副港到港量2.7万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡略 累。 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，EG装置变动超预期 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着合成气制装置重启，国内乙二醇负荷再度回升至7成以上，1~2月高供应和需 求转弱下累库压力仍大，合计在50万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve but still maintain an inventory accumulation pattern. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news, and there may be upside potential if there are relevant policies. For polysilicon, manufacturers' production cuts and positive policies support prices, and the consumer end is boosted, with the price expected to fluctuate upwards [3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8820 yuan/ton and closed at 8835 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.28%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 216554 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 24, 2025, was 9259 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Supply**: The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat. As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.3 tons, down 1.43% from the previous week [1] - **Consumption**: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton. The weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable, and the expected output in December was around 11.4 tons, with limited change in demand for industrial silicon. The weekly production schedule of silicone fluctuated slightly, with a possible reduction of about 5000 tons in December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable, and the demand in the aluminum alloy downstream weakened marginally [2] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 57780 yuan/ton and closing at 60760 yuan/ton, up 4.80% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 132126 lots, and the trading volume was 124231 lots [4] - **Spot**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory decreased. The weekly output of polysilicon was 25000.00 tons, up 1.20% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer output was 10.67GW, down 12.18% week - on - week [4] - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component**: The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were basically stable, with only slight changes in some products [4][5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range - bound operation [3] - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options operations [3][4] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range - bound operation, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [6] - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options operations [6]