供需与逻辑：供应端，成材产量小幅提升；库存端，成材库存下降节奏略有放缓，板材库存仍处高位状态。需求 端，当前成材消费表现平稳，但持续性存疑，后续板材工业属性支撑下，消费预期优于成材。短期基本面矛盾尚 不突出，宏观政策偏多氛围持续提振市场预期，投机情绪有所升温，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变 化对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储行情启动情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-03 宏观预期继续发力，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：宏观预期继续发力，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3133元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3325元/吨。现货方面，今日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，环比昨日转弱明显，盘面持稳，无期现承接，终端对涨价后现货接受意愿较弱，部分地区有对昨日的补涨。 今日全国建材成交9.82万吨。 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：宏观氛围回暖，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格小幅上涨，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘800.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅上涨、 成交氛围略显平淡 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - expectation continues to exert influence, and steel prices fluctuate within a range. Glass and soda ash markets are characterized by strong wait - and - see sentiment and fluctuate. The supply - demand contradictions in glass and soda ash still exist, with high inventory pressure in glass and high - level inventory in soda ash. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron alloys are expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures declined yesterday, and the spot market's trading center moved down. Soda ash futures rose, supported by rising costs. The downstream of both mainly purchases on a rigid - demand basis [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For glass, although the increase in cold - repair of production lines has slightly improved demand, the supply contraction is insufficient, and high - inventory pressure remains. For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction has been slightly alleviated, but the inventory is still high, and the expected increase in cold - repair of float glass may challenge the demand for heavy soda ash [1] - **Strategy**: Both glass and soda ash are expected to fluctuate, with no strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Silicon manganese futures continued to fluctuate, and the spot market was stable. The 6517 silicon manganese price in the northern market was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5520 - 5570 yuan/ton. Silicon iron futures fluctuated with the black - metal sector, and the spot market was weakly stable. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade silicon iron was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Silicon manganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates declining, but the inventory is at a record high. The slight increase in port manganese ore inventory provides cost support. Silicon iron maintains high production and inventory, with weakening demand. Although the inventory has decreased due to reduced operating rates, high inventory still suppresses prices [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to fluctuate [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be on the sidelines and not chased higher [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions at high levels; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to trade strongly sideways [1][10][13][15] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][17][25] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade strongly sideways; PTA is expected to rise in a sideways trend; apples are expected to trade strongly sideways; red dates are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][26][29] - Agricultural and livestock: For live pigs, near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and be cautious about chasing rallies in far - term contracts; egg prices are limited in their upward movement; corn suggests hedging on rallies; soybean meal is mainly for range operations; oils are expected to rebound from lows, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][30][35][41] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market outlooks for various futures products across different industries. It analyzes the fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors affecting each product, and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock indices: The external environment has improved, but the market rotation is fast. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: After entering December, institutional behavior may be the core variable affecting the bond market. They are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. It is recommended for range trading [7] - Rebar: It is in a policy vacuum period. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is expected to trade sideways at low levels, mainly for short - term trading [7] - Glass: Although there are rumors of production line shutdowns causing a rebound in the futures market, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the year - end demand is weak. It is not advisable to chase higher in the near - term contracts [9] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The safety situation in Congo (Kinshasa) is complex. The long - term demand is optimistic, but the short - term high prices may suppress consumption. It is recommended for range short - term trading [10] - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment has improved, and it may continue to rebound in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels [11] - Nickel: The supply is expected to be loose in the long term. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [13] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply recovery and downstream demand improvement, and for range trading [13] - Gold and silver: Supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and safe - haven demand, gold is for range trading, and silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions [15] - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected to trade strongly sideways. Pay attention to the progress of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of Ningde Jiaxiawo lithium mine [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading, and pay attention to policies and cost - side disturbances [17] - Caustic soda: The valuation is suppressed by the expectation of alumina production cuts. It is recommended to wait and watch [19] - Styrene: The overseas blending logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade sideways, and pay attention to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [19] - Rubber: The market is bearish, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended for range trading [21] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade sideways [22] - Methanol: The supply in the inland has recovered, and the port inventory has decreased. It is recommended for range trading [24] - Polyolefins: The inventory is decreasing, but the demand is insufficient after the peak season. PE is expected to trade sideways in the range, and PP is expected to trade weakly sideways [25] - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and watch [25] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Although the global supply - demand data is loose, the recent domestic cotton sales are fast, and the yarn price is firm, so they are expected to trade strongly sideways [26] - PTA: Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to rise in a sideways trend, with a focus on the range of 4600 - 4900 [27] - Apples: The inventory is mainly sold as needed, and the price is expected to trade strongly sideways [28] - Red dates: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%, and the price is expected to trade weakly sideways [29] Agricultural and Livestock - Live pigs: In the short term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the long term, the capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. The near - term contracts are for short - selling on rallies, and be cautious about chasing rallies in the far - term contracts [30][31] - Eggs: In the short term, the supply - demand is marginally improved, and the price has support. In the long term, the capacity reduction takes time. The 01 contract has a large premium over the spot, and the price increase is limited [31][32] - Corn: In the short term, there is still selling pressure, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies. In the long term, the cost support is strong, but the supply - demand is relatively loose, and the upward space is limited [33][34] - Soybean meal: It is mainly for range operations, and spot enterprises can fix the basis for December - January [35][36] - Oils: In the short term, the trends of different oils are differentiated. In the long term, they are expected to trade in a wide range. Be cautious about chasing rallies in soybean and palm oils, and pay attention to Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data and the December MPOB report [37][41]

【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 12 月 03 日 甲醇：震荡运行，上方空间收窄 | 黄天圆 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 | Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 甲醇主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,132 | 2,136 | - 4 171266 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,145 | 2,121 | 2 4 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 1,198,322 | 1,027,056 | | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 978,569 | 1,003,722 | -25153 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 3,800 | 3,800 | 0 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 作者： 邝志鹏市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下行。现货方面，市场成交重心有所下移，下游按需采购为主。供需 与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加，带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍显不足，供需矛盾依 旧较大，高库存压力仍存。后续玻璃厂仍需通过长期亏损完成产能出清，持续关注玻璃冷修及宏观政策 情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡上行，成本上行有所支撑。现货方面，下游以刚需采购为主。供需与 逻辑：纯碱产销存数据均有所回落，供需矛盾得到小幅缓解，但库存仍处于高位。且考虑到后续浮法玻 璃冷修仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，压制纯碱价格高度，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影 响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 免责声明： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保 证。本报 告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, etc., and gives trend judgments and market analysis for each variety [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rubber - **Trend**: Oscillating [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the rubber main contract fluctuated, trading volume decreased, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased. The prices of some overseas rubber varieties increased slightly, while the prices of some domestic import varieties decreased. The orders of tire sample enterprises weakened [5][6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [5] Synthetic Rubber - **Trend**: Short - term event - driven upward with narrowing upside space [2][10] - **Fundamentals**: The price of the main contract of synthetic rubber increased, trading volume increased, and the opening rate of cis - butadiene rubber increased. The price of butadiene increased, and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber increased [10][11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [12] LLDPE - **Trend**: Basis turns positive, supply remains loose [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of LLDPE increased slightly, the basis strengthened slightly, and the inventory of upstream factories accumulated passively. The supply in the near - term is stable, but there is supply - demand pressure in the medium - term [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [15] PP - **Trend**: Short - term rebound, medium - term trend still under pressure [2][16] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of PP fluctuated slightly, the basis weakened slightly, and the overall market trading volume decreased. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed [16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [18] Caustic Soda - **Trend**: Still under pressure [2][20] - **Fundamentals**: The price of caustic soda futures decreased, the basis increased, and the spot market was weak. High production and high inventory continue, and the demand is weak [20][21][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [23] Pulp - **Trend**: Oscillating [2][25] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of pulp increased, trading volume increased, and the net long position of the top 20 members increased. The basis decreased, and the spot market showed a slight improvement [26][27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [26] Glass - **Trend**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][29] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of glass decreased slightly, the basis increased, and the spot price increased in some areas. The reduction in production capacity has improved market confidence, but overall trading is average [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [30] Methanol - **Trend**: Oscillating with narrowing upside space [2][32] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of methanol decreased slightly, the basis increased slightly, and the spot price increased in most areas. The port inventory decreased significantly, and there is high supply pressure in the short - term [33][35][36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [37] Urea - **Trend**: The price center moves up, pay attention to inventory during the day [2][39] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of urea increased, the basis decreased, and the factory price increased in some areas. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased, and the market is supported by fundamentals [40][41][42]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [42] Styrene - **Trend**: Short - term oscillation [2][43] - **Fundamentals**: The price of styrene futures increased, the profit of non - integrated and integrated production increased, and the inventory pressure of downstream products was high. The short - term pure benzene market oscillates at the bottom [43][44]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [43] Soda Ash - **Trend**: Little change in the spot market [2][46] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of soda ash increased, the basis decreased, and the spot price was stable. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general [46]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [46] LPG - **Trend**: Under pressure [2][48] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of LPG decreased, trading volume decreased, and the opening rates of some related industries were stable. The price of CP paper goods decreased [49][54]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [53] Propylene - **Trend**: The pattern remains loose [2][49] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of propylene fluctuated slightly, trading volume and positions changed, and the basis of some regions increased. The opening rate of PDH was stable [49]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [53] PVC - **Trend**: Oscillating at a low level [2][59] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of PVC was at a low level, the basis was negative, and the spot price was stable. The supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and there is a production reduction expectation [57]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [58] Fuel Oil - **Trend**: Declined at night, weakness reappeared [2][60] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of fuel oil decreased, trading volume decreased, and the inventory of the whole market decreased. The spot price of fuel oil decreased [61]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [61] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Trend**: Weakened in the short - term, the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market oscillated narrowly [2][61] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased, trading volume decreased, and the inventory decreased. The spot price of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased [61]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish (-1) [61] Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Trend**: Short - term valuation repair continues, medium - term oscillating market [2][63] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of the container freight index (European line) fluctuated, the trading volume of the main contract increased, and the spot market freight rate of some shipping companies increased. The overall shipping capacity is not low [63][73][74]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [75] Short - Fiber - **Trend**: Supported by cost, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][76] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of short - fiber fluctuated, the basis decreased, and the spot price was stable. The factory's trading volume decreased, and the sales rate decreased [76]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [77] Bottle Chip - **Trend**: Supported by cost, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][76] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of bottle chip decreased, the basis increased, and the spot price was stable. The market trading atmosphere was light [76][77]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [77] Offset Printing Paper - **Trend**: Oscillating at a low level [2][79] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of offset printing paper increased, the basis decreased, and the spot price was stable. The demand in the social end has not improved significantly [79][80][82]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [79] Pure Benzene - **Trend**: Short - term oscillation [2][83] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of pure benzene fluctuated slightly, the inventory of the East China port increased, and the price decreased slightly. The demand is weak in December and may improve after January [83][84]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [84]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 矿钢煤焦类 螺纹钢： 昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹2601合约收盘价格为3133元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格下跌1元/ 吨，跌幅为0.03%，持仓减少10.2万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格持平 于2990元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于3230元/吨，全国建材成交量9.82万吨。近期部分地区工程 赶工，螺纹需求仍维持一定韧性，在产量下降的情况下螺纹库存已连续七周下降，库存总量矛盾得到明 显缓解，部分地区出现规格短缺的现象，对价格走势形成一定支撑。而年末市场对稳地产政策预期也有 所升温，对市场情绪有一定提振。不过当前市场已处于消费淡季，后期需求将面临2个月左右的下降周 期，需求对价格的驱动依然不足。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 新浪合作平台光大期货开户 安全快捷有保障 铁矿石： 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2601价格冲高回落，收于800.5元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌0.5元/吨， 跌幅为0.06%，成交14万手，减仓1.8万手。港口现货主流品种市场价格，现青岛港PB粉797持平，超特 粉690持平。供应 ...

Group 1: General Market Conditions - On December 2, 2025, A-share's three major indexes collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% to 3897.71 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.68% to 13056.70 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.69% to 3071.15 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1593.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 280.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index adjusted on December 2, closing at 4554.34, down 22.15 [2] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On December 2, the coke weighted index continued to rebound, closing at 1677.7, up 35.6; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1139.3 yuan, up 19.6 [2][3] - Coke supply is increasing, with significant inventory accumulation. Mine clean coal inventory increased by 20.44% in a single week, and coke plant inventory increased by 9.91% [4] - As of the end of October 2025, China's imported coking coal reached 98.869 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%. In October, the total import volume was 10.5932 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.02% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%. From January to October, China's coke export volume was 6.2189 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.05%. In October, coke exports were 727,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 34% and a year-on-year increase of 49.92% [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the supply outlook and weak technical indicators, US sugar tumbled on Monday. Under the influence of the decline in US sugar, the short sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to decline on Tuesday and in the night session [4] - Brazil's central-southern region produced 983,000 tons of sugar in the first half of November, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. The sugarcane crushing volume reached 18.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. The proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production dropped to 38.6% [4] Group 4: Rubber - Due to the large decline in the previous trading day, the rubber futures prices rebounded due to bargain hunting. The short sellers pressured the Shanghai Rubber futures to decline slightly in the night session [5] - ANRPC predicted that global natural rubber production in October would increase by 2.7% to 1.496 million tons, and consumption would decrease by 4.2% to 1.26 million tons. In the first 10 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.6% to 11.9 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.8% to 12.684 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons [5] Group 5: Soybean Meal - On December 2, CBOT soybean futures prices slightly declined. The large expected production of South American soybeans suppressed the speculation of US soybean demand [5] - As of last Thursday, the sown area of Brazilian soybeans reached 89% of the expected area, compared with 91% in the same period last year. StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production would be 177.2 million tons. Argentina's soybean sowing was progressing smoothly, with a planting rate of over 20% [5] - On December 1, the M2601 contract closed at 3039 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. Currently, soybean supply is sufficient, crushing volume has increased, and soybean meal inventory is at a high level. The domestic soybean meal futures market is in a situation of cost support and supply pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 6: Live Pigs - On December 2, the LH2601 contract closed at 11455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35%. In the short term, as the end of the year approaches, most large-scale pig enterprises are more willing to sell pigs to meet their annual targets, and the number of pigs for sale has increased, putting pressure on prices [5] - The demand for pork has increased marginally due to the drop in temperature, and the traditional bacon-making season has started in the southwest region, but the overall progress is slow, and the demand recovery is gentle. The live pig market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [5] Group 7: Palm Oil - On December 2, the main palm oil contract continued to move positions and rebound. The price briefly opened lower and then quickly rose, closing at 8720, up 0.79%. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 30 was 779,392 tons, a decrease of 39.21% compared with the same period last month [5] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai Copper 2601 contract showed a weak pattern of opening high and closing low. The linkage between futures and spot and between domestic and foreign markets weakened, and the trading activity decreased. The contract opened at 89410 yuan/ton, reached a high of 89920 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 88920 yuan/ton [6] - The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve supported the US dollar, suppressing global copper demand and causing funds to flow out of the non-ferrous metal sector. Traditional demand is weak, and the copper consumption in the real estate sector is under pressure. The supply-side positive factors cannot offset these two pressures [6] Group 9: Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 13720 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 96 lots compared with the previous trading day. Xinjiang's cotton purchase is basically over, and it is in the peak processing period. The commercial inventory is growing rapidly and is significantly higher than the same period last year [6] Group 10: Iron Ore - On December 2, the main iron ore 2601 contract fluctuated and closed up 0.5% at 800.5 yuan. The shipping volume increased month-on-month, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased again. In the off-season, as the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline, the molten iron output continued to decline, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [6] Group 11: Asphalt - On December 2, the main asphalt 2601 contract fluctuated and declined 2.41% to close at 2916 yuan. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan decreased month-on-month, the inventory decreased, the demand entered the off-season, and the downstream procurement was cautious. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate [6] Group 12: Logs - On December 2, the log 2601 contract opened at 767.5, with a minimum of 767.5, a maximum of 774.5, and closed at 769.5, with a decrease of 1151 lots in positions. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, down 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, and the price in Jiangsu was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [6][7] Group 13: Steel - On December 2, the rb2601 contract closed at 3169 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3325 yuan/ton. The total new house sales area in ten major cities was 2.1112 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 38%. The real estate market is still at a low level. Due to the rush to complete infrastructure projects in some areas, demand has remained resilient, and steel inventory is expected to continue to decline. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [7] Group 14: Alumina - On December 2, the ao2601 contract closed at 2670 yuan/ton. The trading logic of alumina supply exceeding demand continues, and the upward pressure remains. Domestic alumina production capacity is high, the import window is open, and the arrival of imported alumina will further exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand. Demand is weak, and the spot market trading is cold [7][8] Group 15: Shanghai Aluminum - On December 2, the al2601 contract closed at 21910 yuan/ton. The inhibitory effect of high aluminum prices on consumption has gradually eased, and some postponed demand has begun to be released. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, and primary and secondary aluminum alloy sectors have all improved to varying degrees. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8]

每经AI快讯，12月3日，纽约期银日内涨1%，现报59.36美元/盎司。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping to $4,180 per ounce on December 2, with a daily decline of 1.36% and further falling to $4,170 per ounce, resulting in a total daily drop of 1.52% [1][2] - Concurrently, New York futures gold also declined, falling below $4,210 per ounce with a daily drop of 1.55%, and further decreasing to below $4,200 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 1.76% [3][4] - However, on the morning of December 3, spot gold rebounded, surpassing $4,210 per ounce with a daily increase of 0.13% [5] - Silver's main contract showed strong performance, rising by 1% to 13,627.00 yuan on December 2, and further increasing by 2%, currently reported at 13,762.00 yuan [6][7] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - U.S. crude oil inventories saw an increase, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting a rise of 2.48 million barrels last week, compared to a decrease of 1.859 million barrels the previous week [8] Group 3: Macro and Market Impact - The European Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves saw a slight adjustment, increasing by 300 million euros to 328.4 billion euros [9] - The U.S. dollar index fluctuated due to policy expectations, with a 0.1% decline to 99.33 following comments from Trump regarding potential Federal Reserve chair candidates [10]