【现货消息】 短纤：直纺涤短期货跟随原料震荡盘整，现货方面，工厂报价维稳，成交优惠商谈。期现. 基差报价多 维持，成交刚需为主。半光 1.4D 主流在 6400~6700 区间，较低 6300~6350 区间。今日直纺涤短销售一般，截 止下午 3:00 附近，工厂平均产销 69%，部分工厂产销：100%、70%、80%、100%、100%、35%、30%、30%、 40%、70%。 瓶片：聚酯原料期货震荡收跌，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多稳, 局部下调 20-40 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场成 交气氛一般。6-8 月订单多成交在 5820-5950 元/吨出厂不等，局部少量略高 5980-5990 元/吨出厂不等，品牌 不同价格略有差异。 2025 年 06 月 12 日 短纤：成本抬升，跟随上涨 瓶片：成本抬升，跟随上涨 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | -- ...

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月11日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | 女女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，目前中美谈判传出来信息比较积极，关注具体情况。棉花现货成交一般,贸易商采购比较积极,甚差稳中 偏强。纯棉纱纺企顺价走货,市场信心不足,近期下游开机缓慢走低,成品库存有所增加，压力有所增加,反观棉花现货价格 坚挺，优质资源逐渐减少，基差持续偏强，市场对于后期库存有偏紧的预期，截至5月底棉花商业库存为 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250611：沪铅下方支撑较强；沪锌偏弱整理 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/11 指标 单位 | | | 今值 | | 变动 近期趋势 | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 16,625.00 | | 0.61% | | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 沪铅期现价格 | 元/吨 | 16,880.00 | | 0.69% | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 | | | -255.00 | -15.00 | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | | | -25.00 | - | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | | 美元/吨 | -27.55 | | 0.40 | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 价差 | 美元/吨 | -68.10 | -0.70 | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 | | | -40.00 | | 5.00 | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 铅 | | | 5.00 | 10.00 | | | 沪铅连 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated June 11, 2025, covering precious metals and base metals such as gold, silver, copper, aluminum, etc. [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Non - farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations [2]. - Silver: Achieved a technical breakthrough [2]. - Copper: Inventory reduction supports prices [2]. - Aluminum: Trades in a range [2]. - Alumina: Experiences a slight decline [2]. - Zinc: Remains weak in the medium - term [2]. - Lead: With weak supply and demand, trades in a range [2]. - Tin: Stops falling and rebounds [2]. - Nickel: The reality support and weak expectations are in a game, and nickel prices fluctuate [2]. - Stainless steel: Due to increased production cuts from negative feedback, steel prices trade in a range [2]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of various gold contracts showed different changes, with Comex gold 2508 down 0.06% and London gold spot down 0.20%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed. The inventory of Shanghai gold decreased by 30 kilograms, and Comex gold decreased by 18,915 ounces. The trend strength is 0 [5]. - **News**: Reports indicate that the US is close to reaching an agreement to partially exempt Mexican steel tariffs, and Trump called the Los Angeles riots a "foreign invasion" [5][8]. Silver - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of silver contracts had fluctuations, with Comex silver 2508 down 0.68%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 401,157 ounces. The trend strength is 0 [5]. - **News**: Similar to gold, including US - Mexico steel tariff news and Trump's remarks on the Los Angeles riots [5][8]. Base Metals Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.04%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.45%. The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 496 tons, and LME copper decreased by 2,000 tons. The trend strength is 0 [9]. - **News**: The US is close to reaching an agreement to partially exempt Mexican steel tariffs, and Teck Resources' Chilean copper mine will be suspended for about a month due to mechanical failure [9][11]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum** - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 19,980, and the LME aluminum 3M was 2,494. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.21 tons. The trend strength is 0 [12]. - **News**: The US Treasury Secretary Bessent is considered a candidate for the next Fed Chairman [12][14]. - **Alumina** - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,886, down 6. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed. The trend strength is 0 [12]. - **News**: Similar to aluminum news [12][14]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 0.30%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.32%. The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased by 997 tons, and LME zinc decreased by 1,050 tons. The trend strength is - 1 [15]. - **News**: The situation in Los Angeles escalated, and California sued the Trump administration for deploying troops [16]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 0.69%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.71%. The inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 399 tons, and LME lead decreased by 1,950 tons. The trend strength is 0 [18]. - **News**: Similar to zinc news [18][19]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 0.12%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.06%. The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 38 tons, and LME tin decreased by 25 tons. The trend strength is 1 [21][22]. - **News**: Similar to other metals, including US - Mexico steel tariff news and Trump's remarks on the Los Angeles riots [22][23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel** - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,390, down 1,320. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed. The trend strength is 0 [25]. - **News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US, an Indonesian nickel project entered the trial - production stage, a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production, the Philippines is discussing a nickel export ban, and an Indonesian cold - rolling mill may continue maintenance [25][26][28]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,460, down 180. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed. The trend strength is 0 [25]. - **News**: Similar to nickel news [25][26][28].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 11 日 对二甲苯：中期趋势偏弱 PTA：需求转淡，中期趋势偏弱 MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-10 | 6502 | 4612 | 4269 | 6358 | 3559 | | 2025-06-09 | 6494 | 4602 | 4256 | 6388 | 3514 | | 2025-06-06 | 6556 | 4652 | 4261 | 6394 | 3525 | | 2025-06-05 | 6540 | 4644 | 4283 | 6352 | 3489 | | 2025-06-04 | 6578 | 4670 | 4292 | 6408 | 3511 | | 日度变化 | 0.1% | 0. ...

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月11日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3110 | 3110 | O | 140 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | 230 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3220 | 3220 | 0 | 250 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2973 | 2980 | -7 | 137 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2974 | 2981 | -7 | 136 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2970 | 2979 | -d | 140 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | 105 | アロ/『屯 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3120 | 3120 | 0 | 35 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

2025 年 06 月 11 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：中美会谈希望美豆微涨，连粕偏强震荡 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 豆一：移仓换月、周边市场偏强，盘面反弹 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4168 +69 （+1.68%） 4185 | +34（+0.82%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3031 +20（+0.66%） 3034 | +15（+0.50%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1057.75 +2.0（+0.19%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 295.7 +0.5（+0.17%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2870～2930， 较昨持平； 现货基差M2509-130/-120/-100/-9 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term rebound for soybean meal**: With South American soybean production mostly determined, US soybean planting progressing well and future rainfall sufficient, and domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories increasing, the overall fundamental situation is bearish. However, there was a technical rebound, with potential short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Resistance is strong in the 3030 - 3070 yuan range in the next one to two weeks [1][3]. - **Short - term oscillation for rapeseed meal**: Current rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories at oil mills are not under pressure, but high commercial rapeseed meal inventories are bearish for the July contract. Import volume is expected to decrease in the long - term, but Sino - Canadian dialogue may affect market sentiment. The short - term adjustment space is limited [1][7]. - **Short - term rebound and consolidation for palm oil**: Domestic palm oil commercial inventory is low, and imports have improved. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory accumulation cycle has started. India's import increase and tariff reduction, as well as Malaysia's B20 policy, are positive factors. However, due to the inventory accumulation cycle, the strategy is to sell at high prices [1][9]. - **Short - term strength for cotton**: The US main cotton - growing areas have a moderate excellent - good rate, and future weather is favorable for production. In China, there is an increasing production expectation but the risk of high - temperature disturbances in June. Inventory reduction is faster than expected, but downstream orders are weak, and clothing export prospects have not significantly improved [1][13]. - **Rebound under pressure for red dates**: New - season jujube trees are growing well, but old - crop high inventory remains a problem. Downstream consumption is weak, and the upward driving force for the price is limited [1][15]. - **Weak operation for live pigs**: The long - term supply pressure guided by the number of breeding sows has not improved significantly. In the near - term, both group farms and farmers are increasing the slaughter volume, and the demand is weak. The strategy is to sell on rebounds or conduct inter - month reverse spreads [1][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International situation**: South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started with a progress much higher than last year and the five - year average. Future rainfall is sufficient, and the CPC's June rainfall outlook is favorable [1][3]. - **Domestic situation**: Ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are continuously increasing. As the operation rate rises, soybean meal supply will gradually ease and enter an inventory accumulation cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish. The average monthly import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons. As of June 6, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.462 million tons, and 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons, with a 4.70% increase from the previous week [3]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3019 yuan/ton, up 0.30%. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but there was a technical rebound. Short - selling opportunities after the rebound can be considered, with resistance in the 3030 - 3070 yuan range in the next one to two weeks [1][2][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory situation**: As of June 6, coastal areas' main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 202,000 tons, down 30,000 tons from the previous week; rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; and unexecuted contracts were 51,000 tons, down 11,000 tons [7]. - **Supply and demand**: Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed has been harvested in May. From May to July, rapeseed imports are expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term import volume is expected to be low. Sino - Canadian dialogue may affect market sentiment, and the short - term adjustment space is limited [1][7]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2614 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. Attention should be paid to the risk of subsequent tariff policies [1][4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory situation**: As of June 6, 2025 (Week 23), the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 372,600 tons, up 2.36% from the previous week and down 0.67% from last year [9]. - **International factors**: India's palm oil imports in May are expected to increase by 87% to 600,000 tons, and it has reduced the import tariff on edible oils. Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 30 days of May were strong, and the B20 policy is being promoted [9]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8182 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. It is expected to be bullish at the beginning of this week, but attention should be paid to the adjustment risk after the release of Malaysia's May inventory data. The strategy is to sell at high prices due to the inventory accumulation cycle [1][8][9]. Cotton - **International situation**: The US cotton planting rate is 66%, and about 7% of the cotton - growing areas are affected by drought, which has decreased by 1%. The excellent - good rate is 49%, lower than the same - period level by 12%. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is estimated to be 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% increase year - on - year. India's southwest monsoon has stalled, and Pakistan's sown area has reached 95% of last year's, with a slight risk of production decline [11]. - **Domestic situation**: Xinjiang's cotton seedlings are mostly budding and some are blooming. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage in southern Xinjiang. The cost is expected to decrease slightly. The inventory reduction is fast, but downstream orders are weak, and clothing exports have not significantly improved [12][13]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 13495 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. ICE cotton is expected to oscillate weakly below 70 cents. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 13700 yuan [1][10][13]. Red Dates - **Production situation**: Southern Xinjiang's jujube trees are in the full - bloom stage, and the growth is good. The 36 - sample physical inventory is 106,753 tons, 85 tons higher than the previous week and 4445 tons higher than the same period [15]. - **Market situation**: The supply in the sales area is continuous, and the demand is weak. With the increase in temperature, the demand for dried fruits is expected to decline seasonally [15]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 8910 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to weather - related price fluctuations [1][14][15]. Live Pigs - **Supply situation**: In the short - term, the planned slaughter in June is expected to decrease slightly, but the supply pressure has not significantly improved. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets in May increased, which will bring pressure in Q4. In the long - term, the reduction of breeding sows in April is not significant enough to indicate a turning point in production capacity [18]. - **Demand situation**: Terminal demand is cooling with the rise in temperature, and the support from secondary fattening is weakening [18][19]. - **Price and strategy**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13475 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The strategy is to sell on rebounds or conduct inter - month reverse spreads [17][18][19].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 10 日 对二甲苯：中期趋势偏弱 PTA：需求转淡，中期趋势偏弱 MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-09 | 6494 | 4602 | 4256 | 6388 | 3514 | | 2025-06-06 | 6556 | 4652 | 4261 | 6394 | 3525 | | 2025-06-05 | 6540 | 4644 | 4283 | 6352 | 3489 | | 2025-06-04 | 6578 | 4670 | 4292 | 6408 | 3511 | | 2025-06-03 | 6524 | 4628 | 4306 | 6338 | 3466 | | 日度变化 | -0.9% | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are fluctuating in a range due to the game between real - world support and weak expectations, and stainless - steel prices are also oscillating within a certain range as negative feedback leads to increased production cuts [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 122,710, with changes of 510 compared to T - 1, 1,610 compared to T - 5, - 70 compared to T - 10, - 920 compared to T - 22, and - 6,840 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 115,890, with changes of 17,270 compared to T - 1, - 29,664 compared to T - 5, 37,143 compared to T - 10, - 28,588 compared to T - 22, and - 218,077 compared to T - 66 [1] - The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,640, with changes of - 40 compared to T - 1, - 45 compared to T - 5, - 235 compared to T - 10, - 65 compared to T - 22, and - 745 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 76,193, with changes of 645 compared to T - 1, - 48,330 compared to T - 5, - 63,919 compared to T - 10, - 47,658 compared to T - 22, and - 125,868 compared to T - 66 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data** - The price of 1 imported nickel is 122,700, with changes of 400 compared to T - 1, 1,525 compared to T - 5, - 500 compared to T - 10, - 1,150 compared to T - 22, and - 6,875 compared to T - 66. The Russian nickel premium is 700, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, 250 compared to T - 5, 350 compared to T - 10, 450 compared to T - 22, and 800 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 949, with changes of - 2 compared to T - 1, - 5 compared to T - 5, - 2 compared to T - 10, 1 compared to T - 22, and - 46 compared to T - 66. The price difference between nickel plates and high - nickel iron is 278, with changes of 6 compared to T - 1, 20 compared to T - 5, - 3 compared to T - 10, - 12 compared to T - 22, and - 23 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,050, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, - 50 compared to T - 5, - 100 compared to T - 10, 0 compared to T - 22, and - 250 compared to T - 66. The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,750, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, 0 compared to T - 5, 0 compared to T - 10, 50 compared to T - 22, and 0 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,815, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, - 100 compared to T - 5, - 200 compared to T - 10, - 300 compared to T - 22, and 415 compared to T - 66. The nickel sulfate premium is 821, with changes of - 88 compared to T - 1, - 436 compared to T - 5, - 90 compared to T - 10, - 47 compared to T - 22, and 1,928 compared to T - 66 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [1] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron, with an annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [2] - An overseas nickel smelter in an important metal - processing park in Indonesia has resumed production. The plant's production almost stopped in March due to a fatal landslide in the tailings area. Currently, the production capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [3][4] - In February, Philippine media reported that the parliament was discussing a bill to ban nickel - ore exports, which is in the review stage of the two - house committee. Once signed into law, it will take effect in 5 years. On May 9, there was news that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel - ore export ban starting from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [4] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance and halt production from June to July, with an expected impact of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly affecting the output of 300 - series products. The mill cut production by 40% - 50% in May due to the sluggish market [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]