投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 2025/7/25 | 指标 | | 7月24日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 15 | 40 | 2500 2000 | -----19/20 ----- 20/21 ----- 21/22 ------ 22/23 -- 23/24 | · 24/25 | | | 天津 | -85 | -30 | 1500 1000 | | | | | 日照 | -165 | 10 | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -165 | 10 | -900 | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08/27 | | | | 东莞 | -145 | 50 | | M9-M1 | | | | | | | | ----- 2019/20 == == ===== 2022/23 | | | | 湛江 ...

Group 1: Report Core Information - Report title: "LPG: Supported by Strong External Market, Domestic Market Still Has Room for Repair" [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] - Investment consulting qualification number: Z0020238 [1] - Email: chenxinchao@gtht.com [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Futures - PG2509 yesterday's closing price was 4,023 with a daily increase of 1.41%, and night - session closing price was 4,037 with a night - session increase of 0.35%. Its yesterday's trading volume was 100,180 (a decrease of 1,582 from the previous day), and positions were 88,522 (a decrease of 3,742 from the previous day) [1] - PG2510 yesterday's closing price was 4,456 with a daily increase of 1.48%, and night - session closing price was 4,461 with a night - session increase of 0.11%. Its yesterday's trading volume was 23,707 (an increase of 3,001 from the previous day), and positions were 54,714 (an increase of 160 from the previous day) [1] Spreads - Yesterday, the spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 09 contract was 507, compared with 583 the day before [1] - Yesterday, the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 09 contract was 527, compared with 633 the day before [1] Industrial Chain Important Price Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 73.1%, up from 71.8% last week [1] - This week, the MTBE operating rate was 69.0%, up from 67.6% last week [1] - This week, the alkylation operating rate was 47.5%, up from 45.9% last week [1] Group 3: Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [-2, 2] interval for integers. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, strong, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [6] Group 4: Market Information Saudi CP Expectations - On July 23, 2025, the August Saudi CP expectation for propane was 530 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 510 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [8] - The September Saudi CP expectation for propane was 535 dollars/ton, up 19 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 515 dollars/ton, up 19 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [8] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple PDH device maintenance plans from various companies are listed, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with different start times and some with undetermined end times [7] Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans are listed, including those from Shandong - based companies like Shengli Heavy Oil Plant, Haike Ruilin, etc., with details of normal production volume, loss volume, start time, end time, and maintenance duration [9]

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面弱稳运行，钢价高位震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，螺纹周产量小幅回升，考虑到品种吨钢利润较好，后续仍有增量空 间，低供应格局难续。与此同时，螺纹需求同样改善，高频需求指标均回升，多因投机需求放量所 致，但仍是近年来同期低位，且下游未见好转，淡季需求特征尚存。目前来看，供需双增局面下螺 纹钢基本面并无 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pressure of live pigs remains, showing a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. For eggs, the short - term price has a rising drive but the supply pressure is large, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease. Oils are expected to be in a relatively strong trend after a correction. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it may strengthen in the medium - to - long term. The short - term supply - demand of corn is in a game, and the price may rise in the medium - to - long term with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9] Summary by Variety Live Pigs - On July 24, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong all declined. In the short term, supply exceeds demand, and the pig price adjusts slightly. In the medium - to - long term, the supply will gradually increase. Under the expectation of capacity reduction, it shows weak reality and strong expectation. The 09 contract has pressure at 14700 - 15000, the 11 contract at 14400 - 14600, and the 01 contract has support. Consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and going long on 01 [1] Eggs - On July 24, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short term, high - temperature weather reduces the laying rate, and demand is expected to turn seasonally strong, but supply factors limit the increase. In the medium term, the supply in August - October 2025 may increase. In the long term, the subsequent new production may decrease. The 09 contract waits for spot guidance, and consider shorting on rallies. The 12 and 01 contracts can be considered for long positions on dips [2] Oils Palm Oil - On July 23, the Malaysian palm oil futures rose. The MPOB June report was neutral - bearish, but the market focused on the increased import demand. In July, the export decline and production increase were bearish, but the GAPKI May report and other factors were bullish. The short - term trend is relatively strong, and the 10 contract focuses on the 4300 - 4400 pressure level. In China, the supply in August is relatively loose [4][5] Soybean Oil - As of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans is good. The US soybean futures are in a short - term range - bound. The short - term inventory accumulation in China is expected to be strong, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The soybean oil is moderately strong [6] Rapeseed Oil - The growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there are potential weather threats. The international demand may be affected. In China, the supply is tightening, but the potential import of Australian rapeseed may improve the supply. It is relatively weak [7] Soybean Meal - On July 23, the US soybean futures declined. The short - term US soybean is range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal is strong in the short term but the upside of the spot is limited. In the medium - to - long term, there may be a supply gap. Short - term, consider going long on the M2509 contract on dips; medium - to - long term, pay attention to the M2511 and M2601 contracts [8] Corn - On July 23, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao increased. The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is range - bound. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand tightens, and the price may rise but the upside is limited. Short - term, be cautious about going long on the 09 contract; consider the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [8][9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PX: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the disk [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the disk [1] - Glass: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The market is gradually returning to rationality after being stimulated by macro news, and each chemical product is affected by factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends [2][3][4] - Different chemical products have different investment opportunities and trends, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and policy trends [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly lower. The market lacks fundamental support for upward movement, and the spot market supply - demand support is weak [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts closed lower. Polyethylene demand is weak, and polypropylene price has a small upward shift, but the price increase space is limited due to weak demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene followed the external market sentiment and oscillated lower. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures main contract faced technical pressure and oscillated lower. The macro - positive support weakened, and the spot trading was poor [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rose and then fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and the demand for upstream PX was dragged down. The processing margin of PTA has room to repair [4] - Ethylene glycol oscillated lower. The downstream demand was weak, and the supply increased. The supply advantage will weaken [4] - Short fiber followed the raw materials to rise and then fall. The demand is expected to pick up in the medium - term. Bottle chip inventory is stable after production reduction, but the profit repair drive is limited [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures main contract oscillated and corrected. The port unexpectedly destocked, and the domestic main - producing area enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance [5] - Urea futures opened high and went low. The domestic downstream demand is weak, but the export is advancing, and the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fell from a high. The spot trading volume was mediocre, the demand was in the off - season, and the supply increased. The short - term price may follow the overall sentiment [6] - Caustic soda fell from a high. The spot performance was average, the high - price goods sales slowed down, and the impact of macro factors is large in the short - term [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell. The inventory decreased, the spot price rose, and the supply was high. The short - term is more affected by macro - sentiment [7] - Glass fell from a high. The industry continued to destock, the profit slightly recovered, and the short - term is expected to follow the macro - sentiment [7]

Report Core View - The transportation of lychees in ancient Chang'an and modern futures markets share similarities in aspects such as supply - demand game, time value, risk management, human nature, and information warfare, and true investment wisdom lies in building a sustainable trading system [2][3][5] Similarities between Lychee Transportation and Futures Market Supply - Demand Game - Just as the supply and demand of lychees in Chang'an led to price fluctuations, the supply and demand of commodities in the futures market also determine price changes. Smart investors and ancient merchants both use methods to avoid risks [3] Time Value - The time - related decay of lychee value during transportation is similar to the "time decay" principle of futures contracts. Both ancient and modern people take measures to combat the loss of value [3] Risk Management - In both the lychee business and the futures market, extreme situations can cause price fluctuations. Investors need to use methods like diversifying positions and setting stop - loss points to manage risks [3] Human Nature - Greed and fear in the futures market are similar to the power games in Chang'an. Overcoming human weaknesses is crucial for successful investment [4] Information Warfare - Information about lychees and court dynamics in ancient times is similar to market information in modern futures trading. Investors need to build their own analysis frameworks to avoid being misled by information [4]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 23 日 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2507 | 7,387 | 7,300 | 87 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2508 | 7,505 | 7,492 | 13 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,481 | 7,423 | 58 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB07-EB08 | -118 | -192 | 74 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB08-EB09 | 24 | 69 | -45 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 苯乙烯：强情绪之下的空配 期 ...

Market Overview - PX price remained strong today, with the end - of - day physical goods for September at 843/848 in negotiation and for October at 834/841 in negotiation. The 9/10 swap had a buy - side at par, but no deals were made. The PX valuation today was 843 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar from yesterday. The end - of - day naphtha price continued to weaken, and the current estimated price of August MOPJ is 569 dollars/ton CFR. The trading activity in the Asian PX spot market on July 22 was light, with sellers and buyers mostly on the sidelines. The discussion about China's phased elimination of aging petrochemical production capacity dampened market sentiment [3] - For MEG, from July 21 - 27, the arrival quantity in Zhangjiagang was about 4300 tons, in Taicang about 7700 tons, in Ningbo about 3700 tons, and in Shanghai about 0 tons. The total planned arrival at major ports was about 15700 tons. A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia is currently being restarted and is expected to produce at the end of July. A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi has recently restarted and produced [5] - The overall sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were fair today. By around 3:30 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was estimated to be around even. The sales - to - production ratios of several factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 25%, 150%, 200%, etc. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average today. By around 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 55% [6] Price and Spread Data Futures | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6886 | 4794 | 4447 | 6470 | 504.3 | | Change | 6862 | 14 | 37 | 38 | - 8 | | Change Rate | 24 | 0.29% | 0.84% | 0.59% | - 1.56% | | Month Spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF8 - 9 | SC8 - 9 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 96 | 10 | - 6 | 8 | 10.4 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 92 | 16 | 3 | 16 | 25.8 | | Change | 4 | - 6 | - 9 | - 8 | - 15.4 | [2] Spot | Spot | PX CFR China (USD/ton) | PTA East China (CNY/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent (USD/barrel) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Price | 843.33 | 4772 | 4490 | 566.38 | 69.79 | | Previous Day's Price | 842.33 | 4782 | 4467 | 572.88 | 70.53 | | Change | 1 | - 10 | 23 | - 6.5 | - 0.73 | [2] Spot Processing Margin | Spot Processing Margin | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Margin | Short - Fiber Processing Margin | Bottle - Chip Processing Margin | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Price | 261.95 | 256.61 | 138.04 | - 483.95 | - 6.01 | | Previous Day's Price | 258.08 | 234.63 | 204.46 | - 465.55 | - 6.01 | | Change | 3.88 | 21.98 | - 66.41 | - 18.41 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 1 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2 (integers). The strength levels are classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [7] Views and Suggestions - PX: The single - side is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and the month - spread should be rolled for long positions. Keep an eye on the long PX short EB/EG positions. The PX supply - demand remains tight. On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic plants has decreased, and some plants (Shenghong, Hengli) have unplanned load - reduction. In the second half of the month, pay attention to the possible maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical. On the PTA side, the operating rate has rebounded, and the 1.5 - million - ton plant of Sanfangxiang is in trial operation, increasing the overall supply. In terms of valuation, Shandong Yulong is about to start production, the valuation of MX has decreased, the PX - MX spread has widened. Although MX in East China is slightly tight due to low inventory, it does not affect PX processing profitability [7] - PTA: The single - side trend is upward. Regarding the spread between varieties, consider long PTA short PF. Affected by the overall commodity market rally, the enthusiasm of polyester downstream buyers has significantly increased, with the sales - to - production ratio of some polyester factories reaching up to 1000%, which is expected to drive a positive feedback in advance. Adopt a long - side strategy [7] - MEG: Reverse the 9 - 1 month - spread. The single - side trend turns strong. The continuous rise in coal prices has an impact on coal - chemical products [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Paper pulp: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Apple: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Sugar: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Logs: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - 20 - rubber: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Natural rubber: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Butadiene rubber: Bullish and the trend is emerging (Two stars represent a clear rising trend and the market is fermenting) [1] Core Views - The overall commodity market is strong. The domestic anti - involution policy promotes commodity price increases. Different soft commodities show different trends and investment suggestions are mainly temporary observation or short - term operations [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Category Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today due to the strong commodity market and domestic policies. The 9 - 1 spread decreased. Cotton inventory depletion slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. Downstream cotton procurement is still cautious, and there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new season. The pure - cotton yarn market has average trading volume and strong prices. Macroscopically, pay attention to the details of Sino - US trade agreements. Suggest temporary observation or intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices declined. In Brazil, heavy rainfall in the second half of June affected the sugar - cane harvest, and the sugar - cane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. As the overall harvest progress is slow this year, the sugar - cane crushing volume and sugar production have decreased significantly year - on - year. In July, rainfall in the main production areas decreased. In China, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year; imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 103,500 tons year - on - year. Although Guangxi has increased production this year, due to the fast sales rhythm, inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. However, the US sugar trend is downward, and the upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term. Suggest temporary observation [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Early - maturing apples are on the market, cold - storage merchants are more willing to sell, and cold - storage apple prices are falling. There are many seasonal fruits with low prices, and the hot weather has led to low apple demand. However, the remaining inventory is not large, and the inventory pressure is not significant. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. Last week, the cold - storage apple destocking volume was 90,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.8%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western production areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on production is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the production estimate. Suggest temporary observation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, MR, and BR all rose. The futures market sentiment is optimistic, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continue to rise. The Asian price of the butadiene tower outlet is stable, while the European price is stable with a slight decline. The price of the Thai raw material market continues to rise. Globally, natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. Typhoon "Weipa" has entered northern Vietnam, bringing heavy rain to some areas in Southeast Asia. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded. Jinzhou Petrochemical, Heze Kexin, and Yanshan Petrochemical restarted, and Yihua Rubber and Plastics plans to restart this week. Dushanzi Petrochemical reduced its load, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to decline. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tire plants continued to rise slightly, and the operating rate of semi - steel tire plants continued to rise significantly. Tire manufacturers that had stopped production for maintenance have fully resumed normal production, and tire inventory has increased. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, as counted by Longzhong, dropped to 634,600 tons, and both bonded - area and general - trade inventories decreased. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber, as counted by Zhuochuang, dropped to 12,600 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene dropped significantly to 20,000 tons. Overall, downstream demand has improved, rubber supply has increased, rubber inventory has decreased, market sentiment is positive, and there are potential policy benefits. The strategy is to expect a rebound [6] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5,900 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price of Russian softwood pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Star was 4,100 yuan/ton, remaining stable. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China was 2.181 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period. In June, China's pulp imports were still relatively high year - on - year. In June, China imported 3.031 million tons of pulp, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 18.578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, pulp demand is still weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and demand is in the traditional off - season. Pulp valuation is low. Last Friday, China introduced more anti - involution policies, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, focusing on adjusting the structure, optimizing supply, and eliminating backward production capacity. Suggest temporary observation or light - position buying on dips [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of logs from 13 national ports was 62,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 cubic meters, an increase of 6.12%. Last week, the average daily outbound volume of ports rebounded to 60,000 cubic meters. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume of ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound volume is good. As of July 18, the total national port log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous period. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.64 million cubic meters. The overall national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs will remain low, and there is some positive news on the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the power for price rebound is insufficient. Suggest temporary observation [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash remains abundant, and demand is hovering at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying put options for the soda ash main contract. For glass, it is advisable to temporarily observe the market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1,375 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1,249 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main contract position: 1,074,637 lots, down 177,945 lots; glass main contract position: 1,044,115 lots, down 182,849 lots [2]. - Soda ash 9 - January contract spread: -59 yuan, unchanged; glass 9 - January contract spread: -93 yuan, down 12 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis: -95 yuan/ton, unchanged; glass basis: -113 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1,280 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1,150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Central China light soda ash: 1,195 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass sheets: 1,136 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1,130 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production line number: 223, down 1 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 1.8842 million tons, down 21,400 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 64.939 million weight boxes, down 2.163 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area: 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area: 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Multiple events are reported, including potential Sino - US summit, release of housing rental regulations, EU - China leaders' meeting, and various policy announcements in different fields [2]. Macro - level and Market Analysis - The coal price is affected by the coal production verification notice. The domestic soda ash operating rate has increased, but the subsequent production is expected to decline. The glass production line has one cold - repair, with overall production unchanged. The photovoltaic glass continues to decline [2]. - The soda ash inventory is expected to continue to accumulate due to insufficient demand. The glass market is mainly trading on expectations, and the basis remains in a normal range [2].