农产品日报 | 2025-11-28 苹果库存压力仍存，红枣货源质量下滑 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约9529元/吨，较前一日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.02%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-2029，较前一日变动+2；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.15元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1229，较前一日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，晚富士库存富士交易氛围平淡，客商调货及库内包装均不多。西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果农 两级货源为主，成交有限；部分客商包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区零星出库，多以外贸渠道小果走货为主， 地面交易基本结束。栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤，栖霞80#一二级半主流参考价3.0-3.3元/斤，65#、70#出 库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。甘肃产区静宁果农好货出库价格4.5-5.5元/斤不等。庆阳出库价格3.6-4.5元/斤不等；陕西 洛川产区果农货半商品出库价格3.8-4.3元/斤。库内成交氛围一般，进入短暂的季节性淡季，终端市场消 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices will fluctuate due to the combined impact of supply increases and weak demand. OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable oil production policies in Q1 2026 and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms [1]. - Fuel oil prices will oscillate. The immediate supply is relatively sufficient, but high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by downstream demand [3]. - Asphalt prices will experience low - level oscillations. The supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, but the price has shown relative stability around 3000 yuan/ton recently [3]. - PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate. PX has a strong fundamental expectation but a weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level [4]. - Rubber prices have support. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price is expected to be supported after the concentrated cancellation of natural rubber warehouse receipts [7]. - Methanol prices will oscillate with a short - term upward bias. The supply from Iran will decline, leading to a reduction in port inventory and a price rebound, but there is an upper limit to the price [7][9]. - Polyolefin prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply will remain high, and demand will weaken, but the low valuation may prompt downstream buying [9]. - PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but the export situation improves, and the basis is repaired [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, Brent January contract closed up $0.21 to $63.34/barrel, a 0.33% increase; SC2601 closed at 451.6 yuan/barrel, up 6.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.46% increase. OPEC+ meetings are planned on Sunday, with expectations of stable Q1 2026 production policies and an agreement on evaluating maximum production capacity mechanisms. Russia's oil revenue is under pressure, and the price will oscillate due to supply and demand factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 rose 0.82% to 2471 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 1% to 3033 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujeirah inventories increased. November's western - sourced low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals in Singapore are expected to be higher, but high freight rates may affect December arrivals. The price will oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 fell 1.41% to 3007 yuan/ton. This week's domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises declined. Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price will oscillate at a low level [3]. - **PTA, EG, PX**: TA601 closed down 1.11% at 4632 yuan/ton; EG2601 closed down 0.59% at 3873 yuan/ton; PX01 closed down 0.83% at 6718 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expectation but weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 85 yuan/ton to 15280 yuan/ton, NR rose 40 yuan/ton to 12205 yuan/ton, and BR rose 40 yuan/ton to 10400 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price has support [7]. - **Methanol**: The domestic supply is stable, but Iranian plants are shutting down due to gas restrictions. Port inventory is expected to decline from mid - December to early January, driving the price to rebound, but there is an upper limit [7][9]. - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the price of polyolefin products was low, and production was in a loss - making state. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price in the East China market was adjusted upwards. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but export obstacles are basically eliminated, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on November 27, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable Q1 2026 oil production policies and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms. Eight OPEC+ countries that increased production in 2025 are expected to keep their production suspension policies unchanged in Q1 2026 [16]. - Russia's Ural crude oil discount has widened, and the US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, increasing pressure on Russia's oil revenue [16]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [18][20][24] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [47][53] - **Inter - product Spreads**: Charts cover spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of LLDPE and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experience [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2. Core View - The methanol futures price showed an upward trend on Thursday night, with the spot price in the East China mainstream area also rising. The market is influenced by factors such as supply, inventory, demand, and overseas news. With the news of overseas Iranian device shutdowns and port destocking, the methanol market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2070 - 2160. A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose by 6 yuan to 2123 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China mainstream area rose by 17 yuan to 2105 yuan/ton. The long - position holdings decreased by 23,122 lots to 652,000 lots, and the short - position holdings increased by 39,773 lots to 784,400 lots [1] Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate was 89.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%. The overseas methanol operating rate was 73.2%, remaining flat month - on - month [1] - **Inventory**: The total methanol port inventory in China was 1363,500 tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 80,300 tons, and that in South China decreased by 35,500 tons. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China was 373,700 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.19% [1] - **Demand**: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises were 86,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1900 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 230,700 tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.34%. The olefin operating rate was 91%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%; the methyl chloride operating rate was 80%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%; the acetic acid operating rate was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 3.4%; the formaldehyde operating rate was 42.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the MTBE operating rate was 69.9%, remaining flat month - on - month [1] - **External Factors**: The end of the US government shutdown, the hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve officials, and the uncertainty of the December FOMC meeting suppressed the temporarily warming market sentiment [1] Market Logic - According to market news, there were reports of continued shutdowns of Iranian devices overseas, with a total of 6 production lines with a capacity of 9.9 million tons shut down. This week, the ports destocked, while the production areas had a slight inventory build - up. The import volume in October was 1.612 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13%. It is expected that 3 MTO devices will be shut down for maintenance from November to December. The methanol market will be bullishly oscillating under the influence of overseas news. Future focus should be on the port inventory destocking amplitude and the start - stop of Iranian devices [1] Trading Strategy - A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal: Sideways with a Downward Bias [6] - Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No Rating Provided 2. Core Views - The market sentiment is stable, and the market is oscillating within a range. After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly alleviated, but the high inventory of plates still suppresses prices. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is intensifying, and the steel mills' profitability is declining. The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke has eased, but the market sentiment is weak. The supply of thermal coal is tightening at the end of the month, and the price is oscillating [1][2][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3093 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3293 yuan/ton. Rebar's production, sales, and inventory all declined, and destocking was in line with the season. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, while inventory and demand decreased, and high inventory still suppressed the market [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of destocking, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved month - on - month, and the inventory pressure has been well alleviated. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has narrowed significantly. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory suppresses prices. Building material demand may weaken later, which may drag down plates [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The price of iron ore futures rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 119.1 million tons, a 15.30% increase from the previous day. The total transaction volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 143.0 million tons, a 7.26% decrease from the previous day. The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.60 million tons from the previous week [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly this week, port inventories continued to rise, and the average daily hot - metal output decreased slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore has intensified. The profitability of steel mills has been declining, and downstream steel mills have started to cut production. Some iron ore inventories are locked due to non - market factors, and if these factors are removed, the iron ore price will face great pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coke market was stable, and there was a strong expectation of price cuts. For coking coal, supply disturbances were frequent, and the online auction failure rate was high. The import of Mongolian coal resumed normal traffic, and the market sentiment was weak, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal weakly stable at around 1000 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, the supply remained tight, the market was pessimistic about future prices, speculative purchases were insufficient, and inventories accumulated at mines, ports, and steel mills. With the weakening of terminal demand in the off - season, coal prices were still under pressure in the short term. For coke, the production of steel mills and independent coking plants increased rapidly this week, inventories in each link except ports increased slightly, and the overall coke inventory increased slightly. The fundamental contradiction has eased, and the coke price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [5]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for coking coal; sideways for coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, coal prices oscillated. Near the end of the month, the supply of some coal mines tightened, which supported prices. The shipments of large terminal operators and power plants were stable, and the procurement of metallurgical and chemical industries was active. However, affected by port price cuts, the sales of some coal mines were not smooth, and the wait - and - see sentiment spread. At ports, the market sentiment weakened, and downstream procurement demand was cold. Northern port inventories accumulated rapidly, and the pressure on traders to sell increased. The import bid price of coal decreased, and the market expectation was not good [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and coal prices have oscillated. In the long - term, the supply is still loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Oils and Fats - Palm oil: As the end of the month approaches, the market focuses on export and production data, with potential downside risks. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise and could break through the 8,600 yuan resistance [1]. - Soybean oil: Chinese purchases of US soybeans boost CBOT soybeans, but domestic supply is ample and demand is weak, with inventory likely to increase and prices unable to rise in the short term [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply is accelerating, and although southwest curing has started, demand support is limited. Pig prices are expected to remain weak and volatile, and the strategy of inter - month reverse spreads can be continued [3]. Meal Products - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. With the one - price rising with the market and the basis slightly falling, the market is unlikely to see a continuous upward trend, and there is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the market remains firm due to farmers' reluctance to sell, but there is still a large amount of grain to be sold, limiting price increases. Attention should be paid to the pace of corn supply and market sentiment [7]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to consolidate around 14 cents per pound. With new sugar from Guangxi on the market, the market is expected to remain weak and bottom - oscillating this week [11]. Cotton - ICE US cotton futures were closed for the US Thanksgiving holiday. Domestically, the high output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season creates hedging pressure, but the firm basis and resilient demand support prices, so short - term prices may oscillate within a range [13]. Eggs - Egg prices have fallen below the feed cost line, and with reduced inventory at all levels and recovering demand, futures prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. Key Points by Product Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On November 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,560 yuan, up 1.18% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,224 yuan, up 0.91%; the basis of Y2601 was 336 yuan, up 8.39%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 34.03% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8,390 yuan, up 1.21%; the futures price of P2601 was 8,558 yuan, up 1.04%; the basis of P2601 was - 138 yuan, up 8.00%; the import profit in Guangzhou Port in January increased by 14.08% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10,110 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of OI601 was 9,772 yuan, down 0.48%; the basis of OI601 was 338 yuan, up 16.15% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The basis of the main contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 60.71%; the price of LH2605 was 11,990 yuan, down 0.58%; the price of LH2601 was 11,585 yuan, up 0.39% [3]. - **Spot**: Prices in various regions showed mixed trends, with slaughter volume increasing by 0.47% daily, and most breeding profits decreasing [3]. Meal Products - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,030 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 3,055 yuan, up 1.33%; the basis of M2601 was - 25 yuan, down 266.67% [6]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,470 yuan, up 1.23%; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,469 yuan, up 1.23%; the basis of RM2601 was unchanged [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 was 2,243 yuan, up 0.36%; the basis decreased by 14.55%; the import profit increased by 0.93%; the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased by 32.43% [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2,572 yuan, up 0.82%; the basis decreased by 53.85%; the starch - corn 01 spread increased by 4.11% [7]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of SR2601 was 5,403 yuan, up 0.45%; the price of SR2605 was 5,322 yuan, up 0.30%; ICE raw sugar rose 1.48% [11]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 5,450 yuan, unchanged; the basis decreased; the import volume increased by 37.50% [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of CF2605 was 13,605 yuan, up 0.15%; the price of CF2601 was 13,640 yuan, up 0.11%; ICE US cotton rose 0.59% [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B grade cotton rose 0.69%; the commercial inventory increased by 24.2% [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of JD12 was 2,947 yuan/500KG, up 0.96%; the price of JD01 was 3,282 yuan/500KG, up 1.77% [15]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price rose 1.20%; the egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 3.33%; the breeding profit decreased by 18.60% [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Tin - Consider the strong fundamentals and maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [1][2] Polysilicon - Expect a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation in each link. However, strong spot support will keep prices oscillating in a high - level range. The reverse market structure may continue. Advise cautious trading [4] Industrial Silicon - Anticipate that industrial silicon prices will oscillate at a low level. There will be a decline in both supply and demand in November, with a relatively large supply decline, but there is still pressure for inventory accumulation. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [6] Zinc - The price is boosted by interest - rate cut expectations. The supply - side pressure is limited, and the demand side shows a structural improvement. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and attention should be paid to structural risks. The price is expected to oscillate, with the main reference range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton [7] Copper - The probability of a December interest - rate cut is increasing, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro - level drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 86000 - 88000 yuan/ton [8] Lithium Carbonate - The market maintains a situation of both strong supply and demand. The downstream demand is optimistic, and social inventory is decreasing. However, there may be pressure from high hidden inventory of traders. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [11] Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the main reference range of 21300 - 21800 yuan/ton [13] Nickel - The macro - level is stable, and the fundamentals are weak. The short - term upward drive is limited, and the medium - term supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton [14] Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern under cost support and demand resilience. The main contract reference range is 20500 - 21000 yuan/ton [15] Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, the cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The price is expected to oscillate, with the main reference range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton [16] Summaries by Related Catalogs Tin - **Price Changes**: The spot price of SMM 1 tin increased by 2.24% to 301800 yuan/ton, and the price of长江 1 tin increased by 2.23% to 302300 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11632 tons, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16090 tons, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% to 526 tons [1] - **Inventory Changes**: The SHEF weekly inventory decreased by 0.46% to 6229 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.83% to 7654 tons [2] Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock increased by 0.10% to 52300 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50500 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 11.44% to 2.40 million tons, and the monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.69% to 28.10 million tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 4.17% to 19.50 million tons [4] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon increased by 0.53% to 9550 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 233.33% to - 50 yuan/ton [6] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.95% to 12.04 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.36% to 55.00 million tons [6] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.22% to 22450 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [7] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and refined zinc imports decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons [7] - **Inventory Changes**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 3.01% to 14.81 million tons, and the LME inventory increased by 1.75% to 5.1 million tons [7] Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.50% to 87085 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton [8] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and electrolytic copper imports decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [8] - **Inventory Changes**: The domestic social inventory decreased by 10.80% to 17.35 million tons, and the LME inventory increased by 0.43% to 15.72 million tons [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.54% to 93300 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [11] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92260 tons, and lithium carbonate demand increased by 8.70% to 126961 tons [11] - **Inventory Changes**: In October, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84234 tons, and the downstream inventory decreased by 13.50% to 53291 tons [11] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.28% to 21460 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [13] - **Inventory Changes**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 4.03% to 59.60 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.12% to 54.1 million tons [13] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.71% to 119000 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased by 15.74% to - 220 dollars/ton [14] - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP - based electrolytic nickel production decreased by 4.84% to 110810 yuan/ton, and the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte - based electrolytic nickel production increased by 3.75% to 129484 yuan/ton [14] - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35900 tons, and refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% to 9741 tons. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92% to 39795 tons [14] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21350 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 55 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [15] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06% to 28.60 million tons [15] - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.59% to 5.56 million tons [15] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [16] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and the production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [16] - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.92% to 50.24 million tons, and the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.77% to 30.25 million tons [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon market is expected to mainly experience range - bound fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the positions of the 2512 contract of polysilicon [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - For industrial silicon Si2601, the closing price is 9,115 yuan/ton, with changes of - 95 yuan compared to T - 1, - 40 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 160 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 323,524 lots, down 45,701 lots from T - 1, down 250,821 lots from T - 5, and up 62,437 lots from T - 22. The open interest is 237,648 lots, down 22,881 lots from T - 1, down 36,330 lots from T - 5, and up 25,978 lots from T - 22 [2]. - For polysilicon PS2601, the closing price is 55,235 yuan/ton, down 660 yuan from T - 1 and up 2,785 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume is 324,070 lots, down 6,246 lots from T - 1 and up 19,235 lots from T - 5. The open interest is 141,586 lots, down 1,457 lots from T - 1 and up 7,294 lots from T - 5 [2]. - **Price and Basis**: - Industrial silicon spot prices vary by region. For example, Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,900 yuan/ton, and Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock is 52,300 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of industrial silicon and polysilicon also shows different trends. For example, the industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is + 435 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit**: - Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang (new standard 553) are - 2,154.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) are - 3,401 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits are 7.7 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 550,000 tons, with an increase of 2,000 tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 8,000 tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory of industrial silicon (sample enterprises) is 180,000 tons, with an increase of 1,800 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 12,000 tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory (social + enterprise inventory) is 730,000 tons, with an increase of 3,800 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 3,900 tons compared to T - 22. The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipt inventory is 198,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from T - 1, down 14,000 tons from T - 5, and down 42,000 tons from T - 22. The polysilicon factory inventory is 281,000 tons, with an increase of 10,000 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 20,000 tons compared to T - 22 [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: - The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions are provided. For example, the price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 290 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On November 22, 2025, the list of winning bidders for the 2025 photovoltaic module centralized procurement project of China Energy Engineering Group Co., Ltd. was publicly announced. The total scale of the tender is estimated to be 17GW, divided into 8 bid packages, covering 182mm TOPCon modules, 210mm TOPCon modules, HJT modules, and BC modules [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity of polysilicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX, PTA, PP,烧碱,苯乙烯: Trend Weak [2][31][35][59] - MEG: Hold Long MEG and Short PX [2] - 橡胶: Oscillating with an Upward Bias [2] - 合成橡胶: Oscillating, with Fundamental Pressure but Valuation Support [2] - 沥青: Rising Production, Accelerated Inventory Reduction in the North [2] - LLDPE: Positive Basis, Ample Supply [2] - 纸浆: Oscillating [2] - 玻璃: Stable Raw Sheet Prices [2] - 甲醇: Short - term Rebound Continues [2] - 尿素: Trading in a Range, Following Spot Sentiment Intraday [2] - 纯碱: Little Change in the Spot Market [2] - LPG: Strong External Market, Decent Demand [2] - 丙烯: Weakening Demand Support, Limited Upside Drivers [2] - PVC: Oscillating at a Low Level [2] - 燃料油: Oscillating, Reduced Short - term Fluctuations [2] - 低硫燃料油: Continuing the Adjustment Trend, Slight Rebound in the High - Low Sulfur Spread of External Spot [2] - 集运指数（欧线）: Oscillating at a Low Level [2] - 短纤, 瓶片: Short - term Oscillation, Medium - term Pressure [2] - 胶版印刷纸: Oscillating at a Low Level [2] - 纯苯: Short - term Oscillation [2] 2. Core Views - For PX, PTA, the trend is weak, suggest exiting long positions and holding long MEG and short PTA/PX hedges [4][7][9] - For MEG, the price is at a low level, with improved supply - demand balance in December, suggest closing short positions and anti - arbitrage, and holding long MEG and short PX hedges [7][9] - For 橡胶, it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias due to supply tightening expectations and raw material price support [10][13] - For 合成橡胶, it will oscillate as it faces fundamental pressure from inventory but has valuation support from international prices and natural rubber events [14][16][17] - For 沥青, production is rising and inventory in the north is being reduced rapidly, with a downward trend in future production [18][27] - For LLDPE, the basis is positive but supply remains ample, with mid - term supply - demand pressure from high capacity and weakening demand [28][29] - For PP, short - term short - chasing is not advisable, but mid - term trend pressure persists due to high supply and weak demand [31][32] - For 烧碱, the high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, with limited cost support and downward pressure [35][37] - For 纸浆, it will oscillate as the market is in a stalemate with high inventory and weak demand [41][45] - For 玻璃, raw sheet prices are stable, with cost support but weak downstream orders [48][49] - For 甲醇, the short - term rebound continues, but mid - term fundamentals still face pressure [51][54] - For 尿素, it will trade in a range, with high domestic supply pressure but weakened downward drive by policies, and clear support and resistance levels [56][58] - For 苯乙烯, it will oscillate in the short term, with a slightly stronger pattern than pure benzene but limited rebound height [59][60] - For 纯碱, the spot market changes little, with stable production and demand, and is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [62] - For LPG, the external market is strong and demand is decent, while for 丙烯, demand support is weakening [65][66] - For PVC, it is at a low level, short - term short - chasing is not advisable, but the high - production and high - inventory pattern is hard to change in the short term [74] - For 燃料油, it oscillates with reduced short - term fluctuations, and 低硫燃料油 continues the adjustment trend [77] - For 集运指数（欧线）, it oscillates at a low level [79] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: PX主力昨日收盘价6718元/吨，跌0.83%；PTA主力4632元/吨，跌1.11%；MEG主力3873元/吨，跌0.59% [5] - **Market Dynamics**: PX价格下跌，PTA装置负荷调整至73.7%，MEG部分装置有重启和检修计划 [6] - **Trend Strength**: PX和PTA趋势强度为 - 1，MEG为0 [7] - **Suggestions**: Exit long positions in PX and PTA, hold long MEG and short PX/PTA hedges, close short positions and anti - arbitrage in MEG [7][9] 橡胶 - **Fundamental Data**: 橡胶主力日盘收盘价15,280元/吨，夜盘15,465元/吨，成交量减少，持仓量减少 [11] - **Industry News**: The natural rubber market had large long - short divergence this week, with prices oscillating downward. Supply tightening expectations supported prices, but inventory and export data dragged them down [12][13] - **Trend Strength**: 1 [11] 合成橡胶 - **Fundamental Data**: 顺丁橡胶主力日盘收盘价10,400元/吨，成交量和持仓量 decreased [14] - **Industry News**: Butadiene inventory increased significantly this period, and domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber inventory also rose. The market oscillates with pressure and support [14][16][17] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [16] 沥青 - **Fundamental Data**: BU2601昨日收盘价3,007元/吨，跌1.18%；炼厂开工率34.11%， up 4.26%；炼厂库存率25.89%， down 0.04% [18] - **Market News**: As of November 27, factory and social inventories decreased, and December production is expected to decline [27] - **Trend Strength**: - 1 [26] LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: L2601昨日收盘价6699元/吨，跌0.12%，基差转正 [28] - **Spot News**: The futures market opened low and oscillated, with the basis in North China gradually repaired. Middle - East and US offers declined, and arrivals in Q1 2026 may increase [28] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is ample, with mid - term supply - demand pressure from high capacity and weakening demand [29] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [30] PP - **Fundamental Data**: PP2601昨日收盘价6295元/吨，跌0.03% [31] - **Spot News**: The domestic PP market weakened this week, with the price center slightly moving down [32] - **Market Analysis**: Supply pressure is high, but short - term short - chasing is not advisable due to improved short - term trading. Mid - term pressure persists [32] - **Trend Strength**: - 1 [33] 烧碱 - **Fundamental Data**: 01合约期货价格2238元/吨，山东最便宜可交割现货32碱价格760元/吨 [35] - **Spot News**: Factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda enterprises increased, and the storage ratio rose in all regions [36] - **Market Analysis**: High production and inventory continue, with limited cost support and downward pressure [37] - **Trend Strength**: - 1 [38] 纸浆 - **Fundamental Data**: 纸浆主力日盘收盘价5,184元/吨，成交量和持仓量 decreased [43] - **Industry News**: The imported pulp market shows a "weak softwood, strong hardwood" pattern, with high inventory and weak demand [44][45] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [43] 玻璃 - **Fundamental Data**: FG601昨日收盘价1041元/吨，涨1.46% [49] - **Spot News**: Float glass prices were stable with a weakening trend, with cost support but weak downstream orders [49] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [49] 甲醇 - **Fundamental Data**: 甲醇主力收盘价2,114元/吨，成交量 increased,持仓量 decreased [51] - **Spot News**: The port methanol market rebounded, and inventory decreased significantly. The inland market also rose [53] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term rebound continues, but mid - term fundamentals face pressure [54] - **Trend Strength**: 1 [55] 尿素 - **Fundamental Data**: 尿素主力收盘价1,668元/吨，成交量 decreased,持仓量 increased [56] - **Industry News**: Enterprise inventory decreased in most regions this period, and trading volume increased recently. High supply pressure exists but is mitigated by policies [57][58] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [58] 苯乙烯 - **Fundamental Data**: 苯乙烯2512收盘价6,487元/吨， down 86 [59] - **Spot News**: The pure benzene market oscillates, with weak domestic chemical drive and strong overseas blending drive. The styrene pattern is slightly stronger than pure benzene but with limited rebound [60] - **Trend Strength**: - 1 [59] 纯碱 - **Fundamental Data**: SA2601昨日收盘价1,176元/吨，涨0.26% [62] - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market oscillated, with stable production and demand, and is expected to be stable and oscillate in the short term [62] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [63] LPG, 丙烯 - **Fundamental Data**: PG2512昨日收盘价4,363元/吨，跌0.46%；PL2601收盘价5,871元/吨，涨0.31% [66] - **Market News**: CP paper prices rose on November 27. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [71][72] - **Trend Strength**: Both are 0 [70] PVC - **Fundamental Data**: 01合约期货价格4517元/吨，华东现货价格4450元/吨 [74] - **Spot News**: The domestic PVC spot market is in a stalemate, with some devices having production - cut expectations [74] - **Market Analysis**: It oscillates at a low level, with a high - production and high - inventory pattern hard to change in the short term [74] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [75] 燃料油, 低硫燃料油 - **Fundamental Data**: FU2601昨日收盘价2,471元/吨，涨0.16%；LU2601收盘价3,023元/吨， unchanged [77] - **Trend Strength**: Both are 0 [77] 集运指数（欧线） - **Fundamental Data**: EC2512昨日收盘价1,779.7，涨0.69% [79] - **Trend Strength**: No specific strength mentioned, but it oscillates at a low level [79]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 6707 yuan/ton, closed at 6699 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-0.61%), with a trading volume of 270,000 lots and an open interest of 495,726 lots, a decrease of 1,873 lots [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 6768 yuan/ton, closed at 6763 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.46%), with an open interest of 232,562 lots, an increase of 10,864 lots [5] - Plastic 2609: Opened at 6809 yuan/ton, closed at 6804 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.41%), with an open interest of 4,234 lots, an increase of 376 lots [5] - PP2601: Opened at 6261 yuan/ton, closed at 6295 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.03%), with an open interest of 557,253 lots, a decrease of 29,319 lots [5] - PP2605: Opened at 6360 yuan/ton, closed at 6393 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.11%), with an open interest of 263,547 lots, an increase of 19,590 lots [5] - PP2609: Opened at 6431 yuan/ton, closed at 6435 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.29%), with an open interest of 12,254 lots, an increase of 661 lots [5] Spot Market Quotes - PE Market: Prices continued to be weak. LLDPE prices in North China were 6720 - 7000 yuan/ton, in East China were 6850 - 7300 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6980 - 7350 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market: The mainstream price in Shandong was 6050 - 6050 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The cost of polypropylene was under pressure, and the demand support for propylene weakened [7] - PP Market: Prices were stable to weak, with a decline of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6130 - 6300 yuan/ton, in East China was 6220 - 6400 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [7] Market Analysis Market Review and Outlook - Linear futures opened lower and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere changed little. Traders sold at discounted prices, and most spot prices declined slightly. Downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines [6] - The load of previously restarted plants increased slowly, and the weekly supply decreased. There were no new maintenance plans this week, so the weekly supply might increase month-on-month [6] - The peak demand season was ending, follow-up orders were slow, and most factories had already stocked up. Downstream sentiment was bearish, and purchasing enthusiasm weakened [6] - Crude oil prices fell again due to the easing of geopolitical risks. There was pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, which put pressure on prices. The cost support for plastics and chemicals was hard to find, and combined with the weak fundamentals, the price center declined weakly [6] Industry News - On November 27, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 650,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons (-0.76%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 605,000 tons [7] Data Overview - The report includes charts such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate [9][12][16]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash shows a downward trend, and the demand and inventory are marginally decreasing. The pattern of weak supply - demand imbalance continues. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate at the bottom, and in the medium - to - long - term, a strategy of shorting on rebounds can be considered [8] - The spot performance of glass is below market expectations. The supply is stable, the inventory is high, and the demand recovery is hard to sustain. However, the cold - repair of production lines may help achieve a new supply - demand balance. The glass price is at a low level and has limited room for further decline [9] Summary by Directory 1. Review and Operation Suggestions of Soda Ash and Glass Market - **Soda Ash Market** - On November 27, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash fluctuated strongly. The closing price was 1,176 yuan/ton, up 0.25%, with a daily reduction of 27,403 lots [7] - The supply decreased, with this week's output falling below 700,000 tons and the capacity utilization rate down 2.60% week - on - week. The demand showed a marginal decline, with the total shipment volume down 3.65% week - on - week. The inventory decreased 1.75% week - on - week [8] - The imbalance between supply and demand continued. Although the output and operating rate decreased, the absolute output was still high. The cost provided support, but high inventory restricted price increases [8] - **Glass Market** - The spot performance was below expectations, and the impact of the concentrated shutdown of production lines in Shahe was also less than expected. The supply was stable, the inventory was high, and the demand recovery was hard to sustain [9] - The decline in industry profits accelerated cold - repair. About 5,000 tons of production lines were planned for cold - repair by the end of the year, which could help reduce inventory and achieve a new supply - demand balance. The glass price was at a low level and had limited room for further decline [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, as well as data on soda ash's weekly output and enterprise inventory, but no specific numerical summaries are given in the text [11][15]