Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Dragon Boat Festival, both supply and demand have slightly increased. Coupled with the overall price increase in the non - ferrous metals sector, the lead price has also rebounded. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,200 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$25.93/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead prices in different regions also had corresponding changes, and the lead scrap spread remained unchanged [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,915 yuan/ton, closed at 16,980 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 30,240 lots, down 2,474 lots, and the position was 42,057 lots, down 1,547 lots. The night - session price rose 0.35% compared with the afternoon closing [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory - The downstream maintained rigid - demand procurement. Due to the discounted recycled lead in some regions, the rigid - demand was diverted, and the trading was relatively light. On June 16, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from last week. As of June 16, the LME lead inventory was 263,475 tons, a decrease of 3,775 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Price Strategy**: Maintain a neutral view, and expect the lead price to fluctuate between 16,200 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] - **Option Strategy**: Sell a wide - straddle [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot premium of zinc is moderately weak, and the inventory remains stable. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market is poor, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$22.95/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 240 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 20 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price drops by 280 yuan/ton to 21,990 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 60 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 230 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 10 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On June 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 21,745 yuan/ton and closes at 21,840 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 163,962 lots, a decrease of 27,075 lots, and the open interest is 116,264 lots, a decrease of 6,896 lots. The highest price is 21,935 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 21,660 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory is 130,225 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream raw material reserves are relatively sufficient, and the procurement enthusiasm is poor. The spot premium shows a moderately weak trend. The domestic ore TC is temporarily stable, the zinc ore import window is closed, and the overseas Q3 import ore TC is rising. The smelter's raw material inventory is still sufficient, and the long - term upward trend of the ore end remains unchanged. The smelting profit is stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy start - up rate is increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory, possibly due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" phenomenon. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market weakens, and the spot premium continues to decline [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-17 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存15.30万吨（+0.40万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费162美元/吨（-4美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费146美元/吨（-3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差56.8美元/吨（-8.9美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-45元/吨（-5元/吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差331元/吨（-64元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润222元/吨（-104元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存66300吨（-13700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存45000吨（-13100吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯 乙烯开工率73.8%（+1.5%）。 周初港口库存再度下滑 市场分析 目前主要芳烃系品种主要驱动在最上游的原油端，伊朗地缘冲突加剧推升原油价格，推动纯苯及苯乙烯的成本抬 升，关注地缘冲突进展及油价后续波动。而纯苯方面，国产开工率进一步上升，下游CPL开工进一步下降，拖累纯 苯需求，纯苯到港压力仍存，纯苯港口库存再度延续上升，纯苯加工费偏弱。苯乙烯自身，到港节奏放缓，港口 库存再度小幅下降，港口库存绝对量仍有限，但中长期则在苯乙烯开工逐步回 ...

伊朗甲醇装置停车，甲醇价格再度冲高 甲醇日报 | 2025-06-17 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润698元/吨（+3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1993元/吨（+3），内蒙北线基差129元/吨（-73），内蒙南线1890元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2380元/吨（+115）， 鲁南基差116元/吨（+40）；河南2300元/吨（+175），河南基差36元/吨（+100）；河北2130元/吨（+25），河北基差-74 元/吨（-50）。隆众内地工厂库存379120吨（+8630），西北工厂库存237100吨（+2600）；隆众内地工厂待发订单302090 吨（+39910），西北工厂待发订单167000吨（+17000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2585元/吨（+95），太仓基差121元/吨（+20），CFR中国285美元/吨（+13），华东进口价差-15 元/吨（+0），常州甲醇2520元/吨；广东甲醇2480元/吨（+70），广东基差16元/吨（-5）。隆众港口总库存652200吨 （+71000），江苏港口库存312000吨（+3 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 | | | | 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存补库有所恢复，但仍有可补库空间，只是积极性预 | | | | 计有所下降。6 月美农报告中性。由于美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本 | | | | 面依然偏空。前日豆粕维持高位整理，市场观望情绪较重，3080 元以上继续追多谨 | | | | 慎，注意仓位及风控管理。主力【3010，3080】 | | 菜粕 | 短期震荡 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。5 月 | | | 至 | 7 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | 应展望压力减轻。端午后国内菜籽上市，豆菜粕现货价差跌破 400 元/吨 ...

2025年06月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：美国生柴政策及地缘风险均有利好 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：豆棕价差短期回归受阻 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：黑龙江省储抛储公告，盘面调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：开启反弹 | 8 | | 棉花：关注外部市场影响 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰逐步加速 | 11 | | 生猪：仍需等待现货印证 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 17 日 棕榈油：美国生柴政策及地缘风险均有利好 豆油：豆棕价差短期回归受阻 | | | | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 3.64% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.05% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8 ...

2025年06月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期价格承压 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：聚酯大规模检修，中期价格承压 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG减仓 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：地缘问题反复，震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随原油高位震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 11 | | PP：价格上涨，刚需成交 | 13 | | 烧碱：现货承压，期货补贴水 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 16 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 18 | | 甲醇：短期偏强运行 | 19 | | 尿素：地缘问题反复，偏强运行 | 21 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 23 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：地缘不确定性增加，盘面支撑走弱 | 25 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油：夜盘回撤，预计短期强势暂缓 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：短线转弱，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅收窄 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡走势，10空单持有 | ...

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 镍不锈钢早报 走势评级： 镍——滚动做空 不锈钢——观望 楼家豪 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 镍矿价格小幅反弹 底部支撑转强 报告内容摘要: [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 17 日 [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary] 【印尼 Harita Nickel 已投产 12 条生产线，全力生产镍 铁】Harita Nickel 公司位于北马鲁古省 Halmahera Selatan 省奥比岛 (PulauObi)的镍加工厂。目前，Trimegah Bangun Persada(Harita Nickel) 公司已拥有 12 条采用旋转窑炉(RKEF)技术的冶炼生产线。从 Harita Nickel 公司发布的信息记载，Harita Nickel 公司于 201 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 17 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report Geopolitical disturbances have driven up the prices of upstream crude oil and methanol, providing cost support for the upward oscillation of LLDPE and PP futures. The LLDPE and PP futures markets showed an upward trend, with the LLDPE 2509 contract closing at 7,338 yuan/ton, up 127 yuan/ton (1.76%), and the PP main contract closing at 7,133 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton (1.15%). The PP futures' upward movement boosted the spot market, with some upstream petrochemical manufacturers raising their factory prices, strengthening the cost support for the supply. However, the supply-demand pattern has changed little, with reduced maintenance efforts and new capacity coming on stream, increasing supply pressure. The downstream agricultural film industry's operating rate has dropped to a relatively low level this year, and the packaging industry has low willingness to stockpile raw materials and finished products in the short term. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry is significantly lower than the same period in previous years. The continuous fermentation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East supports oil prices, and the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants has pushed up the price of MA. Polyolefins are in a stage of strong cost and weak supply-demand game, and are expected to operate warmly in the short term driven by cost support [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Quotes**: The LLDPE and PP futures contracts showed an upward trend. For example, the LLDPE 2509 contract opened at 7,266 yuan/ton, closed at 7,338 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 7,341 yuan/ton and a minimum of 7,219 yuan/ton, up 127 yuan/ton (1.76%), and the trading volume was 455,000 lots, with the open interest decreasing by 16,526 lots to 477,702 lots. The PP main contract opened at 7,103 yuan/ton, closed at 7,133 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton (1.15%), and the open interest increased by 4,247 lots to 460,472 lots [3][4]. - **Cost and Supply-Demand Analysis**: Geopolitical disturbances have driven up the prices of upstream crude oil and methanol, providing cost support for polyolefins. However, the supply-demand pattern is weak, with reduced maintenance efforts and new capacity coming on stream, increasing supply pressure. The downstream demand is also weak, with the agricultural film industry's operating rate dropping to a relatively low level this year, and the packaging industry having low willingness to stockpile raw materials and finished products in the short term [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory Level**: On June 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, up 15,000 tons (1.85%) from the previous working day, compared with 820,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The domestic PP North China drawn wire mainstream price was in the range of 7,070 - 7,250 yuan/ton, the East China drawn wire mainstream price was in the range of 7,130 - 7,250 yuan/ton, and the South China drawn wire mainstream price was in the range of 7,090 - 7,300 yuan/ton. The PE market prices continued to rise, with prices increasing in different regions and product types. For example, in the North China region, some linear PE prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, some high-pressure PE prices increased by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 200 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview The report includes various data charts and graphs, such as the L-PP price difference, the settlement price of the crude oil futures main contract, the inventory of two major oil companies, and the L and PP basis, etc. These data are sourced from Wind and Zhuochuang Information, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][15].