Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant price increases in cyclical commodities such as crude oil, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, alongside a stronger-than-expected recovery in the construction industry post-holiday, supported by improved real estate sales and rapid fiscal fund deployment [1]. Group 1: Macro Environment - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, leading to heightened expectations of disruptions in crude oil supply, which has driven up prices in the oil, chemical, and non-ferrous metal sectors [2]. - The construction industry has shown stronger recovery post-holiday compared to the same period last year, with indicators such as high furnace operation rates and cement dispatch significantly exceeding those of the previous lunar year [1][3]. Group 2: Commodity Prices - Crude oil prices surged by 12.3% as of March 3, with the domestic chemical price index rising by 4.8%. The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) and refined oil transportation index (BCTI) increased by 43.9% and 54.0%, respectively [2]. - Coal prices increased by 4.0% due to uncertainties surrounding Indonesian coal supply, while prices for precious and industrial metals rose due to the geopolitical situation and increased demand from AI investments [2]. Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing - The technology hardware sector is experiencing an upward trend, with South Korea's January exports of memory chips growing by 44.1%. The average spot prices for DRAM memory (DDR4/DDR5) increased by 1.9% and 3.8%, respectively [3]. - The construction materials sector showed mixed price movements, but key indicators such as high furnace operation rates and cement dispatch rates were significantly higher than the previous lunar year [3]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities increased by 53.3% compared to the previous lunar year, with second-hand housing transactions in ten key cities rising by 14.5% [4]. - The high-end liquor market saw a price recovery, while the air conditioning sector faced a decline in domestic sales and exports [4]. Group 5: Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport in ten major cities increased by 77.0%, indicating a recovery in urban travel post-holiday. Freight logistics demand also showed significant recovery compared to the previous lunar year, with national road freight volume increasing by 26.0% [5]. - Maritime shipping prices rose notably due to the geopolitical situation, and domestic port throughput showed a recovery [5].

消，霍尔木兹海峡一度暂停通行。海湾地区的紧张氛围，在短时间内明显上升。 这场冲突表面上发生在美国、以色列与伊朗之间，但由于美国在中东长期部署大量军事设施，波及范围很 快扩展到整个海湾地区。阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、沙特等国相继受到不同程度影响，同时也纷纷 对局势作出公开表态。 这期节目，我们连线了正身处迪拜的「声东击西」后期制作人赛德，他回忆了自己在城市里亲历的导弹拦 截瞬间，还有不断响起的警报和起火的港口……我们也试图通过这些碎片，拼凑出海湾国家在「外包式安 全」与「多边平衡」之间的尴尬困境，以及在突如其来的战争阴影下，这片土地正在经历的震荡与抉择。 本文整理自播客「声东击西」第 356 期 对话者： 声东击西 赛德，「声东击西」后期负责人，此刻正身处迪拜 2 月 28 日，美国和以色列对伊朗发动军事打击。随后几天，伊朗方面展开回应，中东局势迅速升温。伊朗 伊斯兰革命卫队宣布对地区内的相关军事设施发动袭击，多国发布安全提醒，部分空域关闭，航班大量取 声东击西 2 月 28 日，美国和以色列对伊朗发动军事打击，那天你正在哪里？ 赛德 我当时在从迪拜去阿布扎比的路上。下午两点左右，手机突然弹出阿联酋内政部的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-03-03 美伊军事冲突增添供应扰动担忧，基本 金属震荡回升 有⾊观点：美伊军事冲突增添供应扰动担忧，基本⾦属震荡回升 交易逻辑：据汇通财经网数据，近期公布的经济数据表现分化，美联储降 息预期继续改善；美以联合打击伊朗，地缘冲突升级，整体来看，宏观面 有扰动但整体稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，美伊军 事冲突引发供应扰动担忧，伊朗和中东供应优势金属铜铅锌铝存在供应中 断风险，整体供应端支撑较强。终端偏弱，现实供需偏宽松，但消费逐步 往传统旺季切换，中期供需收紧预期仍在。整体来看，短期供应端炒作风 险上升，基本金属有望阶段性重回震荡偏强，关注铜铝锡镍短多机会，中 期美联储独立性风险和供应扰动担忧仍在，铜铝锡镍等品种有望维持震荡 偏强走势。 铜观点：地缘冲突加剧，铜价⾼位运⾏ 氧化铝观点：减产预期博弈过剩现实，氧化铝价震荡运⾏ 铝观点：地缘冲突加⼤供应担忧，铝价震荡上⾏ 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑延续，价格震荡上⾏ 锌观点：中东地缘冲突，锌价⾼位震荡 铅观点：地缘冲突扰动，铅价震荡运⾏ 镍观点：库存⾼位压制，盘⾯震荡运 ...

Tabl e_Title 2026 年 3 月 2 日 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | | 2.77% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | | 0.04% | | 全球债券指数 | | 0.50% | | 全球国债指数 | | 0.51% | | 全球信用债指数 | | 0.33% | | 姓名 | | 分析师 | | 美元指数 | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | -0.10% | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn | 0.53% | | | | 021-68767839 | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20251117 -20251121)- AI 泡沫担忧升温 权益资 产价格回落 大类资产运行周报（20251124 -20251 ...

| 7 Elittre | 度策略参考 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2026 | | | | | | | | | 行业板块 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品種 | 短期内,关注中东战事的演变,若战事快速了结,对标2025年6月 | 13日,以色列袭击伊朗核设施。6月24日伊以签订停火协议,伊以 | | | | 冲突结束，股指经历了震荡调整后,市场情绪快速恢复,向上突 | 破打开上行趋势。因此,若本次中东局势未进一步恶化,则股指 | 宏观金融 | 短期的调整将带来较好的多头布局机会。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行示利率风险,近期关注日 | 国 债 | 本央行利率决策。 | 近期宏观利多推升铜价,但全球铜库存持续累库压制价格,预计 | | | | | | 短期铜价震荡偏强运行。 | 近期宏观利好提振有色板块,但国内铝库存大幅累库或拖累铝 | 价,短期铝价震荡偏强运行。 | | | | | | | 国内氧化铝运行产能下降,但库存进一步累库,短期震荡运行。 | ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济|定期报告 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 怎么看所谓 2028 年"全球智能危机"的观点 宏观周度述评系列（2026.02.24-03.01） [报告摘要 Table_Summary：] 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1注：未特别说明，报告数据来自 wind，彭博 | [Table_Author] 分析师： | 郭磊 | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | | SFC CE No. BNY419 | | | 021-38003572 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈礼清 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523080003 | | | 021-38003809 | | | chenliqing@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | 021-38003674 | | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 钟林楠 | ...

第一，怎么看所谓2028年"全球智能危机"的观点？ 美国研究机构Citrini Research发布了一篇《2028年全球智能危机》报告[1]，在海外金融市场带来了较大反 响。报告的一个核心逻辑是AI在提升效率的同时，会带来对就业的替代；就业减少导致消费收缩，企业利润下降。企业为维持利润率，需要被动进一步减少对人力 的投入、增加对人工智能的投入，从而形成一个"没有刹车机制"的人类智能替代循环。 怎么样看待这样一种观点？ 需要指出的是，"技术替代就业"的观点几乎在每一轮技术变革时都会出现，《2028年全球智能危机》这篇报告几乎是30年前互联网革命时候流行观点的翻版。 1995年杰里米·里夫金在《工作的终结》（The End of Work）一书中就曾认为，随着计算机技术的广泛渗透，人类正步入一个"近乎无工人的世界"。社会就业 将两极分化为少部分科研与信息精英，以及大量永久失业者，白领、蓝领、管理人员都将被取代[2]。当时也有部分观点比里夫金这种极端认识更温和，认为互联网 会很快带来"去中介化（Disintermediation）"的就业替代，比如线下零售、房产中介、证券经纪、银行柜员、导游、传媒记者、公司文秘、 ...

Group 1: Domestic Economic Trends - The extended Spring Festival holiday is expected to boost travel, tourism, and consumption significantly, with a projected increase in passenger volume during the Spring Festival travel rush[2] - In 2026, the Spring Festival is anticipated to set five new records for travel intensity, with a notable increase in self-driving trips and strong demand for tourism[9] - The sales of commercial housing during the Spring Festival are expected to show a positive year-on-year growth of 5.2%[4] Group 2: AI and Technological Advancements - The year 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the widespread adoption of AI consumer terminals, marking the beginning of competitive AI applications[2] - The introduction of AI technologies during the Spring Festival gala has enhanced public awareness of embodied intelligence, further supporting the notion of 2026 as a key year for AI application competition[34] Group 3: International Trade and Currency - The repeal of Trump-era tariffs is expected to lead to a moderate appreciation of the RMB, with the current tariff rate on Chinese goods at 28.93%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from late 2025[4] - The global trade tensions are easing, which is likely to support a resilient growth rate in China's export sector[4] Group 4: Inflation and Economic Data - Inflation rates in the US and Japan are lower than expected, indicating a downward trend, with the US CPI at 2.4% and Japan's at 1.5%[6] - The US GDP growth for Q4 2025 was below expectations, primarily due to temporary impacts from government shutdowns, reflecting a growth rate of 1.4%[6]

Group 1 - The oil sector in Hong Kong showed overall strength on February 16, with major stocks like CNOOC (00883.HK), CNOOC Services (02883.HK), and PetroChina (00857.HK) recording varying degrees of increase [1] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. President Trump's support for Israel against Iran, have become significant catalysts for the oil and gas sector [1] - According to a report from Everbright Securities, the long-term supply-demand dynamics for crude oil remain favorable, maintaining a positive outlook on the "Big Three" oil companies and the oil service sector [1] Group 2 - CNOOC Services has recently submitted multiple patent applications to the National Intellectual Property Administration, focusing on core technologies in oil and gas development, which strengthens its technical reserves in the oilfield service sector [2]

燃料油日报 | 2026-01-28 地缘局势尚不明朗，情绪溢价有所回落 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.57%，报2692元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.35%，报3165 元/吨。 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近日中东局势升温，原油地缘溢价攀升，并带动下游能化商品上涨。但截至周二尚未发生大规模断供事件，昨日 油价回落，带动FU、LU盘面回调。 高硫燃料油是伊朗出口的主要油品，因此FU对于伊朗局势的发展相对敏感，短期波动较大。站在自身基本面的角 度来看，近期市场结构边际改善，现货贴水、月差与裂解价差明显走强，下游需求表现相对良好，俄罗斯与伊朗 供应则面临地缘冲突的潜在威胁。但如果伊朗局势缓和，市场不具备持续走强的动力。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场矛盾有限，主要跟随原油端被动上涨。站在供需层面，近期随着Dangote与阿祖尔炼厂 装置动态变动，尼日利亚与科威特供应出现较大回升。此外，东西价差走阔后2月份套利船货量可能回升，市 ...