gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月01日 (原油) 周日OPEC+8个主要产油国决定，维持11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年Q1暂停增产。委内瑞拉抗议 美方企图以武力控制其石油。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队在波斯湾水域扣押了一艘载走私燃料的外籍油 轮。短期消息面对油价有所提振，外盘油价周一盘初走高1%。中长期基本面库存宽松压力仍存，油 价反弹空间及持续性或有限。 (责金属) 周五市场并未有显著的利多消息,但国际银价大涨超过6%带动贵金属整体强势,体现其在美联储降 息预期增强背景下金融属性和现货偏紧的双重支撑及高波动特点。 铂肥上市伊始国内投资者对铂的 青睐度更高，相对走势上铂强于叙,倾向多铂空肥。本周继续关注俄乌和平谈判进展。 【铜】 上周五伦铜再创高，沪铜盘中增仓跟涨，短线贵金属提供溢价情绪，中长线市场持续看涨来年铜均 价上涨，流动性、绿碳与智算相结合的需求以及矿端低加工费博弈向冶炼环节传导，且美伦价差可 能继续吸引去美库存,共同支撑涨势。短线多单持有,关注资金变动。 (铝) 周五贵金属和铜太幅上行,沪铝跟涨。近期铝锭有所去库,总体李节性表现偏中性,现货维持贴 水， ...

据了解，安徽联通坚持"技术引领、协同赋能"理念，以"成为江淮制造业智能化升级的首选伙伴"为愿 景，致力于通过5G等前沿技术为工业企业创造可持续价值。 从芜湖美智空调的5G-A全柔性工厂，到黄山世达家纺的纺织业智能升级；从淮南中安联合煤化 的"5G+平台+云边端"智慧工厂，到铜陵金隆铜业全国首个5G LAN大规模商用案例……安徽联通以统一 技术底座支撑多行业、多地域实现智能制造转型，形成了"一地创新、全域推广"的产业联盟发展模式。 近日，工业和信息化部发布《2025年5G工厂名录》，安徽联通携手打造的9家5G工厂成功跻身国家级名 录，这些项目分布在芜湖、宿州、黄山等多个地市，形成多点开花、区域协同的智能制造新格局。 制造业数字化转型是制造业适应数字经济时代发展要求的必然选择。近年来，安徽省以制造业数字化转 型为引领加快推进新型工业化，有力支撑高质量发展。安徽联通作为区域数字化转型的推动者，持续 以"5G+工业互联网"核心能力，助力全省智能制造实现跨越式升级。 依托中国联通在5G领域的技术突破优势，围绕5G专网、移动边缘计算、人工智能、数字孪生等关键技 术，安徽联通推动全省智能制造实现跨越式升级，填补多项智能制造 ...

公司主营精密电子零部件产品和集成方案,主要应用在智能手机摄( 头中的音圈马达VCM和摄像头模组CCM。马达相关电子零部件主.. 贝 (金) = % 11.8亿 55.63 +20.00% O sz 301567 公司从事精密结构件的研发、生产和销售,公司产品主要为运用于 能手机、可穿戴设备、智慧安居及汽车电子等行业的精密结构件, 消息面上，12月1日，中兴通讯表示，目前，搭载豆包手机助手技术预览版的工程样机努比亚M153少量发售，供开发者和感兴趣的朋友体验豆包手机助手。 其中，字节主导豆包大模型的植入与AI交互功能定义，中兴则主导硬件定义、产品设计和生产制造。 有色金属板块同样走强，白银有色、闽发铝业、亚太科技、罗平锌电涨停，天华新能、江西铜业、湖南白银、云南铜业等个股涨幅居前, 有色金属 +1.76% | + 自选 产业链 股票池 未上市公司 领涨次数 / 简称 涨跌幅↓ 流涌市值 现价 = 亚太科技 7.22 +10.06% O 62.9 Z sz 002540 公司是全球汽车行业铝材重要供应商及航空航天、轨道交通、海洋. 业等其他工业领域铝材优质供应商。主营高性能铝挤压材的研发、. 罗智能电 9.02 ...

正信期货分析称，宏观层面方面降息预期博弈相对钝化，不过目前更加偏向12月仍有一次降息。国内方面地 产端加速下行，不过年底政策预期存在支撑。产业端来看，铜的长单谈判周，中国有色工业协会再次强调严 控冶炼产能，杜绝零值甚至负值加工费，CSPT小组倡导铜精矿冶炼产能降低10%，以调节原料供需，谈判博 弈艰难，对铜价则存在一些利好；四季度消费同比不及预期，旺季未兑现，海外方面COMEX铜库存仍在累 增，导致LME库存难以累库。从盘面来看，上周盘面增仓约一万手水平，增仓幅度不大，不过价格重回区间 高位，关注基本面的阶段性博弈点，预计低加工费仍将导致明年供给偏紧预期，短期价格重心抬高，但仍需 关注高位压力反馈。 下载APP添加自选 重要行情优先看 APP LME铜 11225.00 36.00 0.32% ① 交易中 2025-12-01 11:14:52 今开：11220.00 最高: 11294.50 昨结: 11189.00 最低: 11201.50 均价:0.00 涨停: 0.00 跌停: 0.00 今结: -- 昨收:11189.00 日增仓: 0.00 成交量:0.00 持仓:0.00 01 打开曲合APP ...

今日早盘，A股震荡拉升， 深成指、创业板指盘中均涨超1%，沪指重返3900点上方。沪深两市半日成交额1.23万亿，较上个交易日放量 2504亿。盘面上热点快速轮动，全市场超3600只个股上涨。 准确 快速 权威 专业 7x24h电报 头条新闻 VIP资讯 实时盯盘 从板块来看， 消费电子方向集体大涨， 中兴通讯、天音控股、道明光学等10余股涨停。有色金属板块表现活跃，白银有色、闽发铝业涨 停。商业航天概念延续强势，航天发展12天8板。 下跌方面， 风电板块走势较弱， 三一重能跌超6%板块方面，消费电子、有色金属等板块涨幅居前，保险、中船系、风电设备等板块跌幅 居前。截至收盘，沪指涨0.42%，深成指涨0.95%，创业板指涨0.9%。 下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 ...

中金此前指出，力勤资源目前已覆盖镍矿贸易、冶炼生产、设备制造和销售等完整产业链环节。公司在 上游与菲律宾、印尼等矿企签订长期贸易和供货协议，中游印尼OBI岛形成共计40万金属吨镍产能，下 游延伸拓展硫酸镍钴等，已形成全面镍产品服务体系。该行认为，公司印尼的湿法产能有望受益，且未 来存在扩张印尼镍产业链布局的潜力，驱动公司业绩和估值抬升。 智通财经APP获悉，力勤资源(02245)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.85%，报18.36港元，成交额3065.67万港 元。 消息面上，近日，据市场知情人士透露，印尼核心镍产区一座中资控股的大型冶炼厂正因其尾矿库即将 满容而削减产量，这一事件凸显出镍行业日益严峻的废料管理难题。根据印尼镍冶炼协会(FINI)主席 Arif Perdanakusumah的说明，当前印尼镍行业正面临日益加大的压力，因印尼镍矿供应已难以跟上冶炼 产能的迅速扩张，多家冶炼厂甚至警告可能被迫停产。 ...

消息面上，据华尔街见闻文章，供应危机与降息预期夹击，白银和伦铜双双创历史新高。 债市开盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.01%，10年期主力合约持平，5年期主力合约涨0.01%，2年期主力合约跌0.01%。 9:30 贵金属板块开盘大涨，白银有色涨停，湖南白银、豫光金铅、盛达资源、江西铜业、山金国际等涨超6%，消息上，现货白银史上首次突破57美 元/盎司，创历史新高。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601212 | 白银有色 | 5.41 | 9.96% | | 600362 | 江西铜业 | 40.24 | 7.51% | | 000878 | 云南铜业 | 17.69 | 6.44% | | 000630 | 铜陵有色 | 5.42 | 6.27% | | 000923 | 河钢资源 | 18.88 | 5.18% | | 601899 | 紫金矿业 | 30.10 | 5.32% | 9:29 A股高开，沪指涨0.14%，创业板指涨0.26%。有色金属、军工板块领涨，两岸融合、锂矿、深海科技、黄金题材活跃；电商概念股走弱。 港股高开 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议反弹至高位多单减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | ...

12月1日，港股集体高开，恒生指数涨0.34%报25945.87点，恒生科技指数涨0.21%报5611.02点，国企指 数涨0.31%报9158.34点，红筹指数涨0.1%报4197.73点。 盘面上，大型科技股多数走高，阿里巴巴涨0.99%，腾讯控股涨0.33%，京东集团跌0.69%，小米集团涨 0.54%，网易涨1.31%，美团跌2.34%，快手涨0.66%，哔哩哔哩涨0.58%；有色金属板块多股高开，江西 铜业股份涨4.82%，中国铝业涨2.76%；创新药概念活跃，华昊中天医药涨超13%；黄金股普涨，中国白 银集团涨超14%；汽车股部分高开，赛力斯涨超4%。 企业新闻 华新手袋国际控股(02683.HK)：发布截至2025年9月30日止六个月业绩，收入4.32亿港元，同比增加 22.55%；利润4826.2万港元，同比增加78.88。 湾区发展(00737.HK)：10月，广深高速公路、广珠西线高速公路及沿江高速公路(深圳段)月总路费收入 分别为约2.08亿元、7978万元及5531.2万元，同比分别减少0.5%、6%及11%。 光荣控股(09998.HK)：获授一份约5650万新加坡元的建筑合约。 海 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the rainy season, shipments are gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to decline oscillating. The overcapacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production cuts is strengthening. The cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on November 28, the alumina index rose 0.07% to 2739 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 35,000 lots to 608,000 lots. The alumina futures price was in a low - level sideways oscillation this week. The Shandong spot price was 2770 yuan/ton, with a premium of 148 yuan/ton over the December contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 112 yuan/ton, and the weakness of the spot led to the relative weakness of the near - month contracts [11][24] - **Spot Price**: This week, the decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [11][21] - **Inventory**: During the week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 59,000 tons to 4.942 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 59,000 tons, 52,000 tons, decreased by 20,000 tons, increased by 26,000 tons, and increased by 1,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE increased by 7,500 tons to 258,400 tons; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 260,900 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from last week. The market of tradable spot was loose, and the registration volume of warehouse receipts further rebounded [11][70][72] - **Summary**: After the rainy season, shipments are gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to decline oscillating. The overcapacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production cuts is strengthening. The cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13] - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [14] 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: This week, the decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [21] - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 pm on November 28, the alumina index rose 0.07% to 2739 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 35,000 lots to 608,000 lots. The alumina futures price was in a low - level sideways oscillation this week. The Shandong spot price was 2770 yuan/ton, with a premium of 148 yuan/ton over the December contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 112 yuan/ton, and the weakness of the spot led to the relative weakness of the near - month contracts [24] - **Bauxite Price**: This week, bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged. For imported ores, the CIF price in Guinea decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 71 dollars/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at 68 dollars/ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment volume increased. The profit contraction led to an increase in the price - pressing意愿 of alumina enterprises. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline oscillating [27] 3. Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. The total production in the first ten months of 2025 was 50.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. Affected by the rainy season and environmental protection policies, the domestic bauxite production decreased month by month [31] - **Bauxite Import**: In October 2025, bauxite imports were 13.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.32%. The total imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 171.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11% [33] - **Bauxite Import by Country**: In October 2025, China imported 900,000 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 18.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.25%. The cumulative imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.37%. Affected by the rainy season, the imports declined, and it is expected to gradually recover. In October 2025, China imported 3.82 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year increase of 3.48% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The cumulative imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 31.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.23% [35][37] - **Bauxite Inventory**: In October, China's bauxite inventory increased by 240,000 tons, with a total inventory of 52.5 million tons, still at a near - five - year high, and enterprises had sufficient ore inventory. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 280,000 tons in October, and the inventory in Henan decreased by 360,000 tons. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [40] - **Alumina Production**: In October 2025, alumina production was 7.967 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.88% and a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The cumulative production in the first ten months of 2025 was 74.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.03%. As of November 28, 2025, the weekly alumina production was 1.858 million tons, a slight increase of 13,000 tons from last week [42][45] - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The alumina spot price declined, and the profit of alumina factories was under pressure. According to the alumina spot price on November 28, Guangxi, with its relatively low local domestic ore price, had a current production profit of up to 150 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian and Guinean ores in Shandong were 10 yuan/ton and 90 yuan/ton respectively, approaching the loss situation. The cost of transporting imported ores from ports for inland alumina factories was about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, the use of overseas ores in Shanxi and Henan had turned slightly loss - making [48] - **Alumina Import and Export**: In October 2025, the net import of alumina was 13,600 tons. The opening of the import window earlier drove the first monthly change from net export to net import this year. The import volume increased from 60,000 tons last month to 189,300 tons, and the export volume decreased from 246,400 tons to 175,700 tons. The total net export in the first ten months of 2025 was 1.4375 million tons. As of November 28, the weekly FOB price in Australia decreased by 7 dollars/ton to 312 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 26 yuan/ton. The overseas alumina price further declined, and the import window opened slightly [50][52] - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In October 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.84% and a month - on - month increase of 3.36%. The cumulative production in the first ten months of 2025 was 51.91 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.24% [54] 4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% and a month - on - month increase of 2.74%. The total production in the first ten months of 2025 was 36.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [59] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in October remained at 97.47% [62] 5. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (estimated for November and December), showing data on alumina supply, demand, and net exports for each month [65] 6. Inventory - **Social Inventory**: During the week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 59,000 tons to 4.942 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 59,000 tons, 52,000 tons, decreased by 20,000 tons, increased by 26,000 tons, and increased by 1,000 tons respectively [70] - **SHFE Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE increased by 7,500 tons to 258,400 tons during the week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 260,900 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from last week. The market of tradable spot was loose, and the registration volume of warehouse receipts further rebounded [72]