| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 壬泽辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年11月26日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田和 | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌幅 | 狱跌 | | | | | | | | | 8510 | 8490 | 20 | 0.24% | 现价 | 江苏一级 | -0.29% | Y2601 | 8144 | 8168 | -24 | 期价 | | 墓差 | 13.66% | Y2601 | 366 | 322 | 44 | 01+280 | 01+270 | 10 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 | - | | 仓单 | 24625 | 24625 | 0.00% | 0 | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 8370 | 8430 | -0.71% | 广东 ...

【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属上涨。随着多位美联储官员表态主张12月降息，利率市场隐含降息概率升至80%。 俄乌 相关方围绕美方提出的和平计划展开讨论和博弈。市场不确定性依然较强,贵金属高位震荡等待方 向性突破。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【铜】 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 隔夜铜价震荡，伦铜尾盘随贵金属走高，另一联储官员表达侧重就业的降息态度，两市铜价暂时在 MA40日均线存在韧性支撑。国内铜精矿加工费长单谈判备受关注。交割换月后,沪粤延续升水,分 别在85、125元，倾向国内现货端有一定看涨情绪，货源较集中。SMM社库减少1.39万吨在18.06万 吨。前期少量高位空单被动止盈位置从8.7万下调到8.65万。 【铝】 (原油) 隔夜国际油价反弹,布伦特01合约涨1.41%。俄乌地缘风险再次陷入制裁现实与和谈预期的纠葛, 一方面上周五美国对俄两油制裁正式生效,印度炼厂进一步规避俄油采购的行为已经发生,另一方 面本周四最后期限前美鸟就和平计划的谈判仍有不确定性。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面 临更大的累库预期,油价下行驱动仍在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险的犹 动。 ...

证券研究报告 金工 黄金超买风险或得到一定的释放 2025 年 11 月 23 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 期限结构模拟组合创新高，近期持仓做多工业金属板块 商品融合策略近两周上涨 0.97%，今年以来上涨 3.16%。在三个子策略中， 商品期限结构模拟组合近期表现较好，近两周上涨 2.31%，今年以来上涨 7.46%，并于上周五（2025-11-24）创下回测以来的净值新高。期限结构模 拟组合中，近两周收益贡献靠前的品种是玻璃、甲醇、PVC，收益贡献分别 为 0.46%、0.25%、0.16%，近期玻璃跌幅较大，期限结构组合因做空玻璃 而获得较多正收益；近两周收益贡献靠后的品种是橡胶、白糖、乙二醇，收 益贡献分别为-0.08%、-0.09%、-0.17%。期限结构模拟组合最新持仓中， 主要做多工业金属板块，主要做空能源化工板块，和前期持仓相比，工业金 属的多头仓位和能源化工的空头仓位均有所上升。具体品种看，截面仓单模 拟组合在铁矿石、菜油、玉米、沪铜、沪铝上配置了较高比例的多头仓位， 而在橡胶、螺纹钢、PTA、塑料上配置了较高的空头仓位。 黄金周度 RSI 指标回落至 70 以下，超买风险或得到一定的释放 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王法框 | Z0019938 | 2025年11月18日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田和 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | 涨跌幅 | 狱跌 | | | | | | | | | 江苏一级 | 8590 | 8590 | 0 | 0.00% | 现价 | 8256 | 0.31% | Y2601 | 8282 | 26 | 期价 | | 墓差 | Y2601 | 308 | 334 | -26 | -7.78% | 现货墓差报价 | 01+270 | 01+270 | 0 | 江苏1月 | 5 | | 24993 | -216 | 仓单 | 24777 | -0.86% | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | 11月17日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | -0.23% | 广东24度 | 8570 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation, with different sectors having different trends and influencing factors. For example, the A - share market is affected by macro - data and shows an upward - then - downward trend; the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term; and the energy market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [10][12][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The 22nd issue of Qiushi magazine published President Xi Jinping's important article. The National Bureau of Statistics released October economic data, showing a slowdown in multiple indicators. The prices of commercial housing in 70 cities declined. The Chinese government reminded citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. The State Council studied "two - important" construction and consumption - promotion policies. The central bank will conduct a large - scale reverse - repurchase operation. The US will release multiple economic data. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will list platinum and palladium futures. The market supervision department issued an anti - monopoly compliance guide. The national child - rearing subsidy system has been implemented, and the lithium - battery industry chain has seen a price increase. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" [4][5][6][7][8]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market rose and then fell, affected by macro - data. The decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, anti - involution, and the real - estate downturn [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, but interest - rate cuts cannot be ruled out. Maintain the view of increased easing in Q4. The money market is affected by the approaching tax period, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakly effective [11]. Black - **Steel and Ore**: In the short - term, expect a volatile consolidation; in the medium - to - long - term, maintain a bearish view when prices are high. The supply - demand relationship is weak, with high inventory and low profit for steel mills. The price is affected by low - price transactions and may remain weak [12][13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may continue to decline in the short - term. In the medium - term, the mine's production is restricted by policies, and the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, but the strong thermal - coal price provides some support [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, so maintain a bearish view when prices are high. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices are fluctuating narrowly, and the cost of manganese - silicon is relatively stable [15]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. The soda - ash industry has production fluctuations and cost increases, while the glass industry's strong sales have not continued, and the market is concerned about demand and inventory [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term fundamentals are good, but the demand may weaken in Q1 next year, limiting price increases. After the demand weakens, the price may correct, and it is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, influenced by policy expectations and supply - demand relationships [19]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The price is undervalued compared to the spot, which limits the decline. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [23][24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. Before the large - scale arrival of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. In the long - term, there is still supply pressure [25][27]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price may oscillate. The in - production laying - hen inventory is high, but it is expected to decline. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [28]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. The inventory is low, and the price is high. The future consumption trend will be the focus [30]. - **Corn**: The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is necessary to pay attention to the new - grain sales progress and the release of policy wheat [31]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The weak spot market in the sales area has a negative impact on the new - date ordering price [32]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure continues, and the demand is average. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile, but the long - term downward trend of oversupply remains unchanged. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand forecasts [35]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak structure. The short - term focus is on supply concerns after the sanctions on Russia [36]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. The current price provides some support for producers [36][37]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread. The price may oscillate in the short - term, with supply in the peak season and support at the bottom [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - term contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - term contracts can be moderately long after the rebound drive appears. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait for long - position opportunities after a significant decline. Pay attention to the cost support. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is weak [40]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [41]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is expected to continue to be strong in the short - term, driven by improved supply - demand and market sentiment [42]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Although there are short - term positive factors, it is not advisable to chase the rise. Consider shorting at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot transactions [45]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season [46]. - **Urea**: Wait and see, subject to specific policies. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating [47]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term price will oscillate within a range. Be cautious when going long and consider selling call options after the rebound [48].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Agricultural products [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [1] - Research team: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] Group 2: Fats and Oils Core Viewpoint - The trends of the three major fats and oils are differentiated. Palm oil lacks driving forces and continues to fluctuate weakly. Rapeseed oil is policy - dominated, and in the short - term, with inventory depletion and tight spot supplies, it is mainly a long - position configuration. Soybean oil fluctuates in the range of 8000 - 8400, with a bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market review**: Palm oil is the weakest among the three major fats and oils, showing a fluctuating and weak pattern. Soybean oil futures rebounded slightly, and rapeseed oil is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [8][9] - **Operation suggestions**: For palm oil, wait for clearer guidance; for rapeseed oil, take a long - position configuration; for soybean oil, expect it to fluctuate in the 8000 - 8400 range [9] 2. Core Points - **Domestic spot changes**: As of November 14, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil all increased weekly, and their basis also increased [10] - **Domestic inventory of the three major fats and oils**: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils decreased weekly, with soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showing inventory declines [22] - **Domestic supply of fats and oils and oilseeds**: The soybean opening rate of major domestic soybean oil plants decreased compared to last week, and the rapeseed opening rate of major domestic oil plants was almost at a standstill. The import volume of soybeans and rapeseed in 2025 showed different trends [25][29] - **Palm oil dynamics**: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory increased, while imports decreased. From November 1 - 10, production decreased. India's palm oil imports in October decreased [32][33] - **CFTC positions**: Relevant position charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given [44] Group 3: Live Pigs Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may increase slightly until the first half of next year; in the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and terminal consumption may gradually improve. Overall, the spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: The average national live pig slaughter price fluctuated weakly this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.55%. The expected cost of pig fattening showed different trends, and the breeding profit decreased [48] - **Futures market**: As of Thursday this week, the main live pig futures contract LH2601 fluctuated and declined, with a closing price of 11860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67% [49] 2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - term supply: Breeding sow inventory**: The price of binary sows remained stable this week. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Different data sources have different estimations of future pig slaughter [54][58] - **Medium - term supply: Piglet inventory**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets increased this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and future pig slaughter is expected to increase [71] - **Short - term supply: Large - pig inventory, hoarding, and secondary fattening**: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales decreased. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens decreased [73][74] - **Current supply: Commercial pig slaughter volume and slaughter weight**: In October 2025, the actual pig sales volume exceeded the planned volume. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of pigs increased this week [81][82] - **Import supply: Pork imports**: In September 2025, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import volume decreased year - on - year [84] - **Demand**: Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the slaughter enterprise's opening rate increased slightly this week. The national large - scale live pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 increased year - on - year [90][91] 3. Future Outlook - **Viewpoint**: The spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] - **Strategy**: Futures investors should wait and see, and breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions [98] - **Important variables**: Swine fever epidemic, hoarding, and secondary fattening consensus expectations [99] Group 4: Corn Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and the supply is sufficient. Substitute products have reduced price advantages, and future imports may remain low. On the demand side, feed demand is good, but the inventory of feed enterprises is low, and the procurement of deep - processing enterprises is active, but inventory increase is difficult. Overall, the spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: This week, the corn price was strong. In the Northeast, North Port traders raised prices to stimulate arrivals; in North China, farmers were reluctant to sell, and deep - processing enterprises raised prices to purchase; in the sales area, prices increased due to cost factors [100] - **Futures market**: As of November 13, the main Dalian futures contract 2601 closed at 2186 yuan/ton, up 1.5% from last Thursday [101] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn supply**: This week, the grain sales progress slowed down, and the overall progress was faster than the same period last year. The inventory of northern and southern ports increased [105][108] - **Domestic substitutes**: This week, the wheat price fluctuated weakly. The corn price was 272 yuan/ton lower than the wheat price [109] - **Import substitute grains**: In September 2025, China's import volume of grains increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of different grains showed different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn was high, but imports may remain low in the future [110][120] - **Feed demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The proportion of corn in feed decreased. Pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly, and feed production is expected to continue to increase [121][129] - **Deep - processing demand**: Recently, the corn starch industry's production profit was good, and the opening rate increased. The processing profit of starch enterprises in different regions changed differently, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased [131][133] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, China's corn planting area, yield, and consumption are expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to increase [137] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors should hold long positions and set stop - losses [142] - **Important variables**: Policies on purchasing, selling, and storing, tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and weather [143] Group 5: Soybean Meal Core Viewpoint - The external market of soybean meal is close to a short - term high, and the domestic market is cautiously bullish in the short - term. The risk lies in the possibility that China may only purchase a small amount of US soybeans in the future [146][147] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: As of November 14, the coastal soybean meal price increased slightly [145] - **Futures market**: The external market of US soybeans was strong, and the domestic soybean meal rose due to cost - push factors. In the short - term, it should be treated with caution and bullishness [146][147] 2. Core Points - **Soybean planting**: In the USDA September report, the new - crop US soybean planting and harvest area decreased year - on - year, and the yield and inventory were adjusted. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean yields are expected to increase. The US soybean harvest is almost complete, and the Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress is different [148][150] - **US soybean exports**: As of September 25, the US soybean export volume decreased year - on - year. After the Sino - US agreement, there are uncertainties about future Chinese purchases [155] - **Domestic soybean imports and crushing**: As of November 13, the crushing profit of imported soybeans was negative. The soybean crushing volume and opening rate decreased. The soybean import volume in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The port soybean inventory will be high in the short - term and then decrease [166][168] - **Soybean meal trading and inventory**: As of November 7, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. The trading was not active in October, and the terminal demand is expected to be good [172] - **Basis and inter - month spreads**: As of November 13, the soybean meal 01 contract basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread was stable. The 01 contract is relatively strong, and the 1 - 5 spread may increase [175] - **Domestic registered warehouse receipts**: As of November 13, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were at a relatively high level in the same period of history [180] Group 6: Eggs Core Viewpoint - The spot market will adjust narrowly at a low level next week. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Long positions in the far - month contracts can be considered at low prices, and a reverse spread between the near - and far - month contracts is appropriate [183] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: The spot market weakened this week, and it is expected to adjust narrowly at a low level next week [183] - **Futures market**: The futures market declined this week, with the near - month contracts falling more. In the future, the far - month contracts may have opportunities [183] 2. Data Summary - **Inventory and replenishment**: As of the end of October 2025, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment momentum slowed down, and the inventory structure changed [184][186] - **Cost, income, and breeding profit**: As of November 13, the egg price decreased, the feed cost remained stable, the egg - chick price decreased, the breeding profit was at a historically low level but improved compared to last week [189]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil futures may weaken to 4000 ringgit due to potential negative impacts from MPOA production growth and a significant decline in exports in the first five days of November. After the release of the MPOB supply report, it may gradually stop falling and start to recover. In China, it may test the 8500 yuan support level. - CBOT soybean oil has limited upside and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, demand is weak, and the basis quote has limited fluctuation space [1]. Sugar Industry - The expected increase in the supply surplus, combined with weakening energy prices and favorable weather in major producing areas, has led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. Chinese sugar prices are also under pressure but are relatively resistant to decline. The spot market remains tepid, and prices will generally fluctuate at a low level [4]. Corn Industry - In the short - term, corn prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The supply in the Northeast is sufficient, and farmers are reluctant to sell. In the long - term, imports remain low, demand is resilient, and policy regulation will support prices [5]. Cotton Industry - The cost of new cotton provides strong support for cotton prices, but there is also hedging pressure. Downstream demand is weak, but finished - product inventory pressure is not large. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [8]. Egg Industry - In the short - term, the egg market has a supply - demand imbalance, and prices may be in a state of being difficult to rise or fall. With the slow recovery of demand, prices may gradually start to rise, and are expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [10]. Meal Industry - The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China is at a high level, but the cost - side support is strengthening. The downside space is limited, and the support for soybean meal is expected to increase [12]. Pig Industry - The pig market supply is relatively loose, and pig prices have weakened. However, the slowdown in the planned November slaughter volume may boost prices. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 inverse spread and operate with caution [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On November 5, the price of Jiangsu Grade - 1 soybean oil was 8420 yuan, down 0.48% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8108 yuan, up 0.37%. The basis was 312 yuan, down 22.44% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8616 yuan on November 5, down 0.30%. The futures price of P2601 was 8590 yuan, down 0.23%. The basis was - 46 yuan, up 13.04% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu Grade - 3 rapeseed oil was 9750 yuan on November 5, down 0.20%. The futures price of OI601 was 9407 yuan, down 0.38%. The basis was 343 yuan, up 4.89% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil was 188 yuan, up 10.59%; that of palm oil was - 106 yuan, down 32.50%; and that of rapeseed oil was 345 yuan, down 4.96% [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of sugar 2601 was 5441 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; sugar 2605 was 5393 yuan/ton, down 0.70%; ICE raw sugar was 14.12 cents/pound, down 0.63% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5700 yuan, down 0.18%; in Kunming was 5660 yuan, down 0.35%. The Nanning basis was 307 yuan, up 10.04%; the Kunming basis was 267 yuan, up 7.23% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%; sales were 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17%. The national industrial inventory was 68.21 million tons, down 41.20% [4]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On November 5, the price of corn 2601 was 2134 yuan, down 0.05%. The basis was 16 yuan, up 6.67%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 101 yuan, down 4.12% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2451 yuan, up 0.29%. The basis was 59 yuan, down 10.61%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 104 yuan, unchanged [5]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of cotton 2605 was 13620 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; cotton 2601 was 13612 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The ICE US cotton was 65.07 cents/pound, down 0.12% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14627 yuan, down 0.09%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14825 yuan, down 0.11% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, up 68.4%; the industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 4.3%. The import volume was 10.00 million tons, up 42.9% [8]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of the egg 12 - contract was 3217 yuan/500KG, up 2.32%; the 01 - contract was 3385 yuan/500KG, up 1.44% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 2.88 yuan/jin, up 0.22%. The basis was - 333 yuan/500KG, down 25.10% [10]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.80 yuan/feather, up 5.66%; the price of culled chickens was 4.11 yuan/jin, down 4.20% [10]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: On November 5, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3030 yuan, down 0.66%. The futures price of M2601 was 3073 yuan, up 1.92%. The basis was - 43 yuan, down 222.86% [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2550 yuan, up 0.79%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2537 yuan, up 1.60%. The basis was 13 yuan, down 60.61% [12]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans was 3920 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the soybean - 1 main contract was 4123 yuan, up 1.68%. The basis was - 203 yuan, down 50.37% [12]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of the pig 2605 contract was 12040 yuan/ton, up 1.52%; the 2601 contract was 11945 yuan/ton, up 2.23%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 95 yuan, up 45.71% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 11800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in Shandong was 12100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Sichuan was 11400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 159258, up 0.79%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.70 yuan/kg, up 1.25% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium - long term with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended for selling call options [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is advised to close long positions at high levels or engage in range short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to move sideways. Soda ash 01 contract follows a short - selling mindset [1][23][24][34] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to move sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples and jujubes are in weak oscillation [1][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs face pressure in rebounds; Corn is in a bottom - building oscillation; Soybean meal rebounds from a low level; Oils are in weak oscillation [1][41][48][49] 2. Core Views - The market is in a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies after the Sino - US trade negotiation, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, so it will oscillate to wait for new changes at the end of the year [6] - The main trading line of Treasury bonds is not over, but the market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, so it is expected to move sideways [6] - The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising steadily. The supply of coking coal may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the price of rebar is expected to have limited downside space due to low valuation [8] - The supply of glass is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor, so it is recommended to sell call options [10] - The short - term supply - demand situation of copper has limited support for prices, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply of aluminum may face adjustments, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [12][14] - The supply of nickel may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The supply of tin is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading [18][20] - Precious metals are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, but are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading [20][22] - The supply - demand of PVC is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of caustic soda is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [23][25] - The cost of benzene ethylene is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak, so it is expected to oscillate. The cost support of rubber is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate [26][28] - The supply of urea decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The supply of methanol is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high, so it is expected to oscillate [29][31] - The supply of polyolefins has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, so PE is expected to oscillate, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly [33] - The supply of soda ash is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] - The supply - demand of cotton and cotton yarn is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of PTA is in a state of inventory accumulation, and it is in low - level oscillation [37][38] - The quality of apples has declined, and consumption is weak, so the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is expected to decline [38][40] - The supply of pigs is large in the first half of next year, and prices face pressure. The supply of eggs is still large in the medium - long term, and prices face pressure [41][44] - The supply of corn is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak, so it is in a bottom - building oscillation. The price of soybean meal is supported by cost and is expected to rebound [47][48] - Oils are under pressure in the short term but have support factors, and are expected to oscillate widely [54] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: A - shares and Hong Kong stocks are generally down. The market lacks catalysts and is expected to oscillate. It is bullish in the medium - long term and recommended to buy on dips [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures have mixed performance. The market is observing the central bank's operations, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and expect sideways movement [6] 3.2 Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in coal mines [8] - **Rebar**: The price has fallen, but the low valuation limits the downside space. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract and focus on the range of 3000 - 3200 [8] - **Glass**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor. It is recommended to sell the 01 contract out - of - the - money call options and hold them until expiration [10] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high and then declined. The short - term supply - demand has limited support, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The recommended operating range of the main Shanghai copper contract is 85000 - 89000 [12][13] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is under pressure, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum may face adjustments. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [14] - **Nickel**: The supply may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of the Shanghai tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading. The reference range of the Shanghai silver 12 contract is 10700 - 11600, and that of the Shanghai gold 12 contract is 890 - 940 [20][22] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the range of 4600 - 4800 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the pressure at 2400 [24] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6300 - 6700 is concerned [26] - **Rubber**: The cost support is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate. The support at 15000 is concerned [28] - **Urea**: The supply decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The 01 contract range is 1600 - 1700 [29][30] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract range is 2230 - 2330 [31][32] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. PE is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the support at 6900, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly, paying attention to the support at 6600 [33] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] 3.5 Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The supply - demand is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate [37] - **PTA**: The price is in low - level oscillation, and the supply is in a state of inventory accumulation. The concerned range is 4400 - 4700 [38] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The quality of apples has declined, consumption is weak, and the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is also expected to decline [38][40] 3.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The 01 contract is under pressure due to postponed supply, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions gradually. The 03 and 05 contracts have large supply and weak demand in the first half of next year, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The 07 and 09 contracts should be carefully bottom - fishing [41] - **Eggs**: The 12 contract has a large premium over the spot, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly. The 01 contract oscillates in the range of 3250 - 3400 [43][44] - **Corn**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. It is in a bottom - building oscillation, and the 01 contract oscillates in the range of 2050 - 2170. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread [45][46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: It rebounds from a low level. The M2601 contract can take profit on a small scale at high levels and hold after a pullback. Spot enterprises can fix the basis from November to January at low points [48][49] - **Oils**: They are in a high - level adjustment, with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong. The 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 7900 - 8000, 8450 - 8500, and 9250 - 9350 respectively, and not chase short. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of the narrowing spread of rapeseed - soybean 01 and the widening spread of soybean - palm 01 [49][54]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific trading suggestions for different sectors and varieties: - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: Try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread for follow - up upside potential [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Go long on pullbacks for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the cash - futures strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, there is pressure for a further decline; for silver, it is in a volatile consolidation. Trading suggestions are based on price trends [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: Reduce long positions appropriately and hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Close long positions and observe, and consider the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Go long on pullbacks and hold the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Pay attention to the support around 87,000 [3]. - **Tin**: Adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Adopt different strategies such as reducing long positions, short - selling on rallies, and spread trading according to different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support at 8,800 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state around 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: It is in a range - bound and upward - trending state, paying attention to the pressure around 13,800 [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Look for short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a relatively strong state, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 87,000 [3]. 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: Key factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, and the clarification of bond - fund redemption fees have an impact on the market. Risk - preference - enhancing factors are gradually materializing, and uncertainties in the market are decreasing [3]. - **Sector - specific Views** - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations; treasury bond futures are on an upward trend as negative factors are gradually digested; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and trade factors [3]. - **Black Metals Sector**: Supply and demand factors such as production, transportation, and inventory levels affect the price trends of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector**: Prices are affected by factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and technical levels [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Supply - demand expectations, cost support, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Factors such as procurement, supply pressure, and seasonal characteristics affect the price trends of various agricultural products [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors**: Macro - events and fundamental factors affect the price trends of glass, rubber, and new - energy products [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, the market has a short - term pullback after reaching a high. It is recommended to try light - selling put options or constructing a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: As negative factors such as bond - fund redemption fees and central - bank bond - buying uncertainties are gradually digested, the bond market sentiment is improving. It is recommended to go long on pullbacks and consider the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under pressure to decline due to factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and geopolitical concerns; silver is in a volatile consolidation [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: The increase in apparent demand and the alleviation of inventory pressure lead to suggestions of reducing long positions and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline in shipping and arrivals, the increase in port inventory, and the sharp drop in molten - iron production lead to suggestions of closing long positions and considering arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The strength of coking - coal prices and the cost support provided by coking coal lead to suggestions of going long on pullbacks and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: After the realization of positive expectations, the price is in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to the support level [3]. - **Tin**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate outlook, it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Although the macro - sentiment has eased and inventory has decreased, the increase in OPEC production limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support, different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Supported by China's increased confidence in purchasing US soybeans, hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support level [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state due to abundant overseas supply [3]. - **Cotton**: With the solidification of new - cotton costs, it is in a range - bound and upward - trending state [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Affected by macro - events, pay attention to short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the upward shift of the price center and the realization of demand benefits, it is in a relatively strong state [3].