1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions show marginal easing signals, but there is still uncertainty. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly bullish pattern, with the Au2606 contract oscillating between 980 yuan/gram and 1080 yuan/gram. The silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern, with the Ag2606 contract oscillating between 18,000 yuan/kilogram and 19,500 yuan/kilogram [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical tensions show easing signals. The US and Iran express willingness to end the war, but negotiations have not started yet [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 31, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1023.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1020.10 yuan/gram, a change of 0.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1040.82 yuan/gram, up 2.03% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 17,949.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,126.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 2.37% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 881,875 lots, and the open interest was 241,055 lots. The night session closed at 18,954 yuan/kilogram, up 4.57% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 31, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.309%, down 0.99 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.53%, a change of -0.45 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2606 contract, the long positions changed by 4,419 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by -695 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 432,534 lots, a change of -14.43% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2606 contract, the long positions changed by 4,883 lots, and the short positions changed by 6,775 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,341,387 lots, a change of -15.77% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 1,046.13 tons, down 3.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,274 tons, down 14 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On March 31, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 5.66 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 70.59 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 56.28, a change of -1.81% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 64.00, a change of -1.04% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 59,994 kilograms, a change of -34.18% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 345,804 kilograms, a change of 17.53% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the risks and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors in the second quarter of 2026, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that each sector faces different challenges and uncertainties, such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, high inventory, and weak demand. The report also provides corresponding investment strategies and risk management suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Precious Metals: Geopolitical Inflation Expectations Suppress Non-interest-bearing Assets - The Fed faces a dilemma between a weak employment market and inflation in 2Q, and any attempt to front-run the Fed's rate cuts will face high policy risk [4][5]. - The high-frequency switching of the Fed's monetary policy path has led to sharp fluctuations in the precious metals market, and the market's pricing of rate cuts has converged significantly [7]. - The geopolitical conflict has changed the transmission path of precious metals, and inflation expectations have led to a shift of funds from precious metals to high-yield assets, suppressing precious metal valuations [18]. - The repeated swings between negotiation and military confrontation between the US and Iran have made the driving effect of geopolitical events on precious metals turn into high-frequency and disordered two-way fluctuations [24]. Non-ferrous Metals: Macro Valuation Decline and Micro High Inventory - The overseas macro environment shows signs of stagflation, and interest rates and the US dollar put pressure on the valuation of non-ferrous metals [26][27]. - The high inventory situation in the non-ferrous metals market makes the market prone to narrow and violent fluctuations, and the supply side is vulnerable to non-economic factors [31][33][34]. Black Commodities: Negative Feedback under High Inventory and Weak Demand - The fundamentals of black commodities in 2Q have negative feedback risks, and the supply pressure of raw materials and the high inventory situation may lead to a negative feedback loop [36][39]. - The iron ore and coking coal markets face different risks, and the high valuation of ferroalloys lacks solid support [39]. Energy Chemicals: Geopolitical Premium - The energy chemicals market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, and the blind judgment of the geopolitical situation may lead to a sharp decline in prices [48]. - The logistics reconstruction and basis risk in the energy chemicals market require traders to have strong time window control ability [51]. Agricultural Products: Biodiesel Policy and El Niño - The cost pricing logic of agricultural products has changed, and the easing of the Middle East situation may lead to a collapse of cost support [59]. - The supply growth of agricultural products is expected to be realized in 2Q, but the demand is weak, and the prices of some products may face downward pressure [64]. - The climate pattern switch and policy tail risks may have a significant impact on the agricultural products market [67]. Summary and Response - Precious metals: Adopt risk control as the top priority, build long-term strategic positions, and use options for risk management [69]. - Non-ferrous metals: Construct bullish call spread combinations and seagull option strategies for different types of enterprises [69]. - Black commodities: Adopt defensive and short-selling strategies, use arbitrage strategies and options to manage risks, and closely monitor marginal changes [69]. - Energy chemicals: Do not recommend unilateral trading, and construct seagull option strategy systems for upstream and midstream enterprises [69]. - Agricultural products: Adopt a band trading strategy, use arbitrage strategies to hedge risks, and strictly control positions [69].

Core Insights - The report analyzes the commodity bull market of the 1970s and 1980s, attributing it to the collapse of the monetary credit system, geopolitical conflicts, and macroeconomic mismanagement, which collectively led to a systemic revaluation of assets [1][12] - Understanding this historical cycle is crucial for assessing current asset allocation strategies amid structural challenges in global monetary credit and escalating geopolitical tensions [1][12] Commodity Price Mechanism (1970-1980) - The commodity price surge during this period was driven by three main forces: the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, geopolitical conflicts, and macroeconomic governance failures [8][12] - The first phase (1970-1972) saw the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system, leading to significant price increases in gold and fertilizers due to supply shortages and increased usage [14][18] - The second phase (1973-1974) was marked by the first oil crisis, where oil prices surged from $2.7 to $13 per barrel, a 381% increase, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply cuts [24][28] - The third phase (1975-1977) experienced economic recession and high inflation, with mixed commodity performance; while many prices fell, oil and coal prices remained strong [31][33] - The fourth phase (1978-1980) was characterized by the second oil crisis, with oil prices reaching $40 per barrel, driven by geopolitical instability and inflation expectations [35][36] Market Reactions - The energy sector consistently outperformed during the commodity bull market, with significant excess returns noted in the energy index during periods of inflation [2][12] - The "Nifty Fifty" phenomenon emerged in the early 1970s, driven by fiscal and monetary expansion, but ultimately collapsed due to macroeconomic reversals and external shocks like the oil crises [12][14] Optimal Assets in Stagflation - Precious metals and oil were identified as optimal assets during stagflation periods, with gold being the most reliable core investment [2][12] - The report suggests that if geopolitical tensions ease, a return to a tech and cyclical market focus may occur, benefiting sectors like non-ferrous metals, construction materials, and semiconductors [12][14] - Conversely, prolonged geopolitical conflicts could lead to stagflation risks, making gold, oil, and chemical sectors critical areas for investment [12][14]

Market Overview - On March 31, the A-share market experienced a slight correction after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3948 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3891.86 points, down 0.80%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81% to 13478.06 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 20,061 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Strong performers included automotive services, precious metals, aerospace equipment, and banking sectors[3] - Weaker sectors were coal, wind power equipment, electronic chemicals, and batteries[3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext were 16.21 times and 46.09 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years[3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, influenced by overseas factors such as potential escalation in Middle East conflicts and U.S. inflation rates[3] - Domestic macroeconomic policies are becoming clearer, providing a solid support base for the market[3] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors like consumer electronics, precious metals, banking, and aerospace equipment for short-term opportunities[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected overseas recession impacting domestic recovery, slower-than-expected domestic policy implementation, and macroeconomic disturbances[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation and oil price shocks will continue to disrupt global risk appetite. A - share market is difficult to completely shake off external emotional suppression in the short term, and it is necessary to closely monitor the evolution of the Middle - East situation, international oil price trends, and the further transmission of external market fluctuations to A - share sentiment [8][15] - The inter - bank liquidity in the bond market is still relatively abundant. The central bank's open - market operations continue to send signals of care. Treasury bond futures are generally strong, with the long - end performing better, and the short - term bond market may maintain a strong and volatile pattern [11][15] - The core logic of the commodity market is the parallel evolution of geopolitical risk premium and domestic fundamental repair. Precious metals are strong due to the Middle - East situation and macro - expectation repricing, while industrial metals such as tin benefit from the marginal recovery of manufacturing prosperity. The commodity market may still have a structural market in the short term [9][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情Analysis Stock Market - A - share market indices were under pressure, and the trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3891.86 points, down 0.80%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13478.06 points, down 1.81%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3184.95 points, down 2.70%; the STAR 50 Index closed at 1256.33 points, down 2.59%. The total A - share trading volume was about 2.01 trillion yuan, up 4.1% from the previous trading day [7] - The market showed a pattern of more falling stocks than rising stocks, with 1008 rising stocks and 4372 falling stocks. The growth technology direction adjusted significantly, while sectors such as home appliances, banks, and food and beverages were relatively resistant to decline [6][7] Bond Market - The treasury bond futures market showed a pattern of strong long - end and stable short - end. The 30 - year treasury bond futures TL2606 rose 0.15%, closing at 111.69 yuan, with a trading volume of 852.75 billion yuan; the 10 - year treasury bond futures T2606 rose 0.04%, closing at 108.40 yuan, with a trading volume of 881.23 billion yuan; the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures were flat compared with the previous day [11] - The central bank carried out 325 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 150 billion yuan. Except for the 7 - day Shibor, other term Shibor rates declined, indicating that the liquidity was further relaxed [11] Commodity Market - The commodity index declined, but non - ferrous metals performed strongly. The Nanhua Commodity Index closed at 3074.6 points, down 0.91%. Leading gainers included Shanghai silver, soybean No.1, Shanghai gold, Shanghai aluminum, and double - gum paper, while leading losers included PVC, LPG, coking coal, container shipping index (European line), and lithium carbonate [9] Trading Hotspot Tracking Recent Hot - Product Review - Artificial intelligence: Global industrialization is accelerating, and new applications are emerging. Key points to follow include changes in capital expenditure of leading enterprises, transformation of application scenarios, and product technology upgrades [14] - Commercial space: With the establishment of commercial space companies and strong support for development, key points to follow include domestic recoverable rocket launches and technological breakthroughs of overseas leaders such as SPACEX [14] - Nuclear fusion: Industrialization is accelerating, and artificial intelligence drives the increase in power demand. Key points to follow include project progress and industry bidding [14] - Big consumption: Policy promotes consumption upgrading. Key points to follow include economic recovery and further stimulus policies [14] - Securities firms: A - share trading volume is running at a high level. Key points to follow include A - share trading volume and possible changes in trading systems [14] - Precious metals: Central banks continue to increase holdings, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates. Key points to follow include further interest - rate cut expectations of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [14] - Energy and chemicals: The Middle - East geopolitical situation affects supply. Key points to follow include the progress of the conflict and changes in crude oil prices [14] - Shanghai silver strengthened significantly. Due to the uncertainty in the Middle - East and the game of macro - expectations, precious metals recovered. Shanghai tin strengthened oscillatingly, supported by the recovery of manufacturing prosperity [14] Recent Core Idea Summary - In the equity market, focus on the impact of the Middle - East situation, oil prices, and external market fluctuations on A - share sentiment [15] - In the bond market, the short - term bond market may maintain a strong and volatile pattern, with the long - end of treasury bonds performing better [15] - In the commodity market, it may show a structural market in the short term. Pay attention to the evolution of the Middle - East situation, oil price trends, and the sustainability of domestic demand recovery [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company experienced a significant increase in gold production and prices, leading to a substantial growth in net profit by 293% in 2025. The total revenue for 2025 reached HKD 2.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49.8%, with net profit attributable to shareholders amounting to HKD 830 million [1][9] - The increase in revenue was primarily driven by a rise in the average selling price of gold from RMB 540 per gram in 2024 to RMB 747 per gram in 2025, alongside an increase in gold sales volume from approximately 2.22 tons in 2024 to about 2.96 tons in 2025 [2][10] - The company maintained a gross profit margin of 54.7% in 2025, up from 40.1% in 2024, attributed to effective cost control and the rise in gold prices [2][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company's cash costs slightly increased from RMB 283 per gram in 2024 to RMB 306 per gram in 2025, while the all-in sustaining costs rose from RMB 368 per gram to RMB 377 per gram [3][11] - The company’s total production costs for the Tongguan mining area decreased significantly from RMB 468 per gram to RMB 401 per gram due to scale efficiencies from acquisitions and increased production [11] - The projected net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are estimated to be HKD 1.78 billion, HKD 2.06 billion, and HKD 2.50 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 114%, 16%, and 21% [4][29] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to enhance its research on mineralization patterns in Gansu and Tongguan, actively pursue mergers and acquisitions for growth, and maintain strategic cooperation with Zijin Mining [4][29]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for precious metals in the short term, with potential for recovery in the medium to long term [1][3][8]. Core Insights - The precious metals sector is currently under pressure due to tightening liquidity expectations from the Federal Reserve, but concerns over "stagflation" may enhance gold's safe-haven appeal in the medium term [1][3][9]. - The energy and chemical sector is experiencing heightened volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, suggesting a cautious approach to asset allocation in this area [1][4][19]. - The black metal sector, represented by iron ore, is less sensitive to geopolitical issues and is more influenced by domestic macro policies, indicating a potential for a fluctuating market [1][16]. - Industrial metals are facing downward pressure from tightening liquidity and stagflation expectations, although aluminum prices may remain relatively strong due to supply disruptions [1][14]. - Agricultural products are expected to see increased shipping costs due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with certain commodities like soybean oil potentially offering better value compared to industrial metals [1][21]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The South China precious metals index has decreased by 13.73% over the past two weeks, with gold and silver prices also declining significantly [3][8]. - Historical data from the 1970s oil crises shows that while gold and silver may initially drop in value, they tend to rebound over longer periods [9][12]. Energy and Chemicals - The South China energy and chemical index has increased by 1.52% recently, but geopolitical factors remain a significant risk for oil prices [4][19]. - Brent crude oil prices have shown fluctuations, reflecting the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [19]. Black Metals - The South China black metal index has risen by 0.63%, with iron ore prices showing stability amidst mixed domestic demand signals [16]. Industrial Metals - The South China non-ferrous metal index has decreased by 2.05%, with copper and aluminum prices under pressure due to rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions [14][19]. Agricultural Products - The South China agricultural index has seen a decline of 3.03%, with soybean oil prices expected to remain strong due to their role as a substitute for fossil fuels [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2026, the evolution of the Middle East situation, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals will jointly determine the rhythm of the precious metals market. Geopolitical event - driven impacts may gradually weaken, and prices may return to being driven by monetary policy corrections and fundamentals [1][149]. - The prices of precious metals are expected to bottom out through oscillations in Q2 and gradually recover previous losses. Short - term adjustments do not change the long - term upward trend. However, more data such as the recovery of Fed rate - cut expectations or the acceleration of central bank gold purchases are needed to support the upward drive, and this time window may appear in the second half of Q2 or Q3 [2][150]. - Gold has strong support at $4100 - 4400 per ounce in Q2, with resistance at $5000; silver has strong support at $60 - 65 per ounce, with resistance at $100 [2][150]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Review 3.1.1 Market Review - In Q1 2026, precious metal prices fluctuated sharply, showing a pattern of rising and then falling. The SHFE Shanghai Gold Index reached a peak of 1260.15 yuan/gram on January 29, and as of March 20, it closed at 1042.5 yuan/gram, with a maximum quarterly amplitude of 253.53 yuan/gram and a quarterly increase of 6.4%. The SHFE Shanghai Silver Index reached a peak of 31573 yuan/kg on January 30, and as of March 20, it closed at 17626 yuan/kg, with a maximum quarterly amplitude of 15455 yuan/kg and a quarterly increase of 3.2% [6][7]. - The London gold - to - silver ratio widened slightly from around 60 at the end of last year to 63. In January, the domestic silver price had a significant premium over the London price, and the spot price had a significant premium over the futures price, but this situation reversed in February [7]. 3.1.2 Influence Factor Analysis - In Q1 2026, the precious metals market showed an extremely volatile pattern, with the core drivers centered around geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy expectations. In early Q1, multiple positive factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policy expectations, and supply - demand imbalances drove the rise of precious metal prices. In late January, the nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman and the tightening of market liquidity led to a peak - to - trough decline in prices. In February, geopolitical conflicts, policy expectation differentiation, and tariff policy uncertainties drove the prices to rise in oscillations. In March, the market was extremely volatile, first falling sharply due to negative factors and then rebounding rapidly [23][24][25]. 3.1.3 Rise - Fall Period Analysis - Since 2026, the rise of precious metal prices has mainly concentrated in the early Asian trading session, while the European and American trading sessions have shown a downward trend. The inflow and outflow of funds from US and Chinese gold ETFs are closely related to price trends. The decline in precious metal prices is mainly driven by the European and American markets, and the key to the price recovery lies in the return of investment demand in the European and American markets and the shift of monetary policy expectations from rate hikes to rate cuts [29][30]. 3.2 Analysis of the Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Precious Metal Prices 3.2.1 Core Events in the Middle East Geopolitical Situation in Q1 - In Q1, the Middle East geopolitical situation gradually escalated and was in a state of repeated tug - of - war. Key events included Iran's enhanced control of the Strait of Hormuz, the escalation of the US - Iran standoff, and the assassination of Iran's supreme leader. These events led to fluctuations in energy prices, changes in Fed policy expectations, and significant impacts on precious metal prices [38][39][40]. 3.2.2 Impact Analysis of the Middle East Geopolitical Situation on Precious Metals - **Disappearance of Safe - Haven Benefits**: The rise in the Middle East geopolitical situation in March did not lead to an increase in precious metal prices. This may be due to the fact that the safe - haven sentiment had been reflected in January, and in March, factors such as energy shocks, the dominance of the US dollar's safe - haven status, and liquidity management led to the suppression of precious metal prices [43][57][59]. - **Short - Term Hawkish Disturbance in Monetary Policy Does Not Change the Medium - Term Loose Tone**: Although the Fed's monetary policy expectations have shifted from rate cuts to rate hikes due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, considering the US economic situation, the dovish signal released by the Fed's March FOMC meeting, the short - term nature of geopolitical impacts, and the political factors, the Fed is more likely to cut rates in the medium term [76][82][91]. - **High Inflation Reality but Controllable Inflation Expectations**: Although the Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up inflation, the market's expectations for a full - blown stagflation are relatively low, and the inflation expectations are still under control, so the positive impact on gold prices has not been effectively transmitted [94][95][96]. - **Damage to the Long - Term Credit of the US Dollar**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is eroding the long - term credit foundation of the US dollar from multiple dimensions, promoting the diversification of the international monetary system and providing long - term strategic support for gold [100][101]. 3.2.3 Outlook for the Impact of the Middle East Geopolitical Situation on Precious Metals - In Q2 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation may evolve in three paths: a baseline scenario (65% probability) with limited US ground intervention and a "cold confrontation" pattern; a high - risk scenario (20% probability) with a full - scale conflict escalation; and a low - probability scenario (15% probability) with a rapid cooling of the conflict. Different scenarios will have different impacts on precious metal prices [102][103][105]. 3.3 Precious Metals Research Framework: Central Bank Gold Purchases are the Key to Support, and Investment Demand is the Core Driver 3.3.1 Gold Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis - Gold supply is relatively stable. In terms of demand, investment demand accounts for the largest proportion and has a large volatility, followed by central bank gold purchases. Gold ETF investment is the core driver of the medium - term trend of gold prices, while jewelry demand and central bank gold purchases play a role in constraining and buffering [109][110][111]. - Since 2026, global gold ETFs have flowed out after an inflow in January, and the central bank's gold - purchasing rhythm has slowed down. However, the long - term logic of central bank gold purchases has not changed, and the 4300 area may be an important support level for central bank gold purchases [117][121][125]. 3.3.2 Silver Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis - In 2026, silver prices showed characteristics of high volatility, internal and external differentiation, and a combination of supply - demand gaps and macro - cycles. The global silver supply - demand gap is expected to continue in 2026, providing long - term support for prices. However, the silver market may face delivery squeeze risks, especially in the CME market [128][129][138]. 3.4 Market Outlook 3.4.1 Q2 Precious Metals Market Outlook - In Q2 2026, the evolution of the Middle East situation, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals will jointly determine the precious metals market. Geopolitical impacts may weaken, and prices may return to being driven by monetary policy and fundamentals. The prices of precious metals are expected to bottom out through oscillations and then rise, but more data support is needed [149][150]. 3.4.2 Strategies and Risks - In the short term, interval trading or low - buying layout is recommended, with strict control of positions and stop - losses. In the long term, focus on central bank gold purchases, the de - dollarization trend, and monetary policy rate - cut expectations, and buy gold at low prices during oscillations, with silver as an elastic auxiliary configuration [3][151]. - Risks include a full - scale escalation of geopolitical conflicts leading to a liquidity crisis, a continuous shift back of Fed rate - cut expectations, a general decline in assets due to liquidity panic, a slowdown in central bank gold - purchasing rhythm, or weak industrial demand for silver [5][152].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical conflicts have disturbed the macro - mainline, putting pressure on gold and silver [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Second Part: Market Review and Prospect - The report presents the disk trends of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, with their units being US dollars per ounce, US dollars per ounce, yuan per gram, and yuan per kilogram respectively [12][14] 3.2 Third Part: Macroeconomic Factors - It shows the Turkish central bank's announcement and the US dollar/Turkish lira trend, along with data on official reserve assets in millions of US dollars [21] - The FedWatch data before and after the war (February 27th and March 27th, 2026) are presented, including the conditional meeting probabilities of different interest - rate ranges in various Fed meetings from 2026 to 2027 [26][27] - Information on the average number of new non - farm and ADP employment in the US in March, as well as the structure of new non - farm employment, is provided [31] - The report also shows the US CPI and PPI data [32] 3.3 Fourth Part: Fundamental Factors - Gold supply - demand balance data from 2014 to 2025 are presented, including supply components such as total supply, recycling, and industrial use, and demand components such as jewelry, investment, and central bank purchases. There are also data on the year - on - year changes in 2024 and 2025 [39] - The flow changes of gold ETFs in different regions and the global gold ETF holdings are shown [40] - The inventory data of silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London LBMA market, and US Comex market are presented, along with the total inventory of four exchanges and the domestic silver premium/discount (against silver T + D) [47][50][51] - The export and import situations of silver in China are shown, including the export and import volumes of unforged silver with a purity of ≥99.99% from 2023 to 2026 [54][56] - The total global silver ETF holdings, the holdings of leading silver ETFs, and the silver lease rate are presented [59][60]