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今天是元宵节，首先祝各位好朋友元宵安康，生活圆满顺遂！ 佳节祈愿圆满，但在世界的另一端，却是战火硝烟处。上周末中东战火再燃，相应的，地缘局势也因此占据了 近期研究报告的C位。 某种角度看，市场的"应激反应"几乎是肌肉记忆，金、油与部分资源品就会应声而起，权益市场的风险偏好受 到压制。 中泰证券的报告中提到，对资源类板块而言，地缘动荡强化中期上涨逻辑，包括能源、贵金属、有色金属、稀 土、军工、电力设备等方向的风险溢价提升。伊朗局势动荡提升了原油等能源大宗商品供应链的不确定性，运 输安全、保险成本与潜在制裁风险所带来的风险溢价推升相关企业的盈利预期。冲突环境下全球不确定性上 升，避险需求抬升支撑贵金属价格，同时若油价带动通胀预期回升、实际利率预期回落，也会进一步强化黄金 等资产的配置价值。 华泰证券的报告中提到，目前伊朗占全球能源产量的比例有限，但受波及的中东与北非地区占比较高。截至 2024年，伊朗分别仅占全球原油、天然气产量的4.5%、6.4%，而中东与北非地区的占比分别高达33.6%、 21.3%。伊朗工业以石油石化为主，是全球甲醇、尿素、丙烷的重要出口国，分别约占全球对应产能的9%、 5%、6-7%。如果 ...

全球股市大跌。 当地时间3月3日，欧洲主要市场开盘大跌。截至发稿，英国富时100指数跌近3%，下跌逾300点；法国CAC40指数跌超2.8%，下跌238.1点；德国 DAX指数跌超3.6%，下跌近900点；意大利富时MIB指数跌超4%，下跌超2000点。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英国富时100 | 10462.31 | -317.80 | -2.95% | | 法国CAC40 | 8156.22 d | -238.10 | -2.84% | | 德国DAX | 23745.01 | -892.99 | -3.62% | | 意大利富时MIB | 44237.95 | -2042.45 | -4.41% | | 欧元区STOXX50(欧元) | 5765.52 d | -221.72 | -3.70% | 此外，美股主要指数期货全线走低，道指期货、标普500指数期货均跌超1.5%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌超2%。 | 名称 ▼ | 月 ▼ | | 最新 | - - - - 最低 - - 涨跌额 ▼ | | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- ...

①【三大期指齐跌超1%】截至发稿，道指期货跌1.14%、标普500指数期货跌1.50%、纳指期货跌 1.96%。 ⑥【明星科技股普跌】明星科技股盘前普跌。截至发稿，英伟达下跌3%，谷歌下跌2.68%，AMD下跌 3.71%，微软下跌1.70%。 ⑦【联合创始人计划出售2.8亿美元股票，Palantir跌超3%】当地时间3月2日，最新监管文件显示， Palantir联合创始人彼得·蒂尔计划于3月3日通过美林证券出售至多200万股A类股票，价值2.8亿美元。根 据美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件，蒂尔上一次减持Palantir的股份是在2024年10月。 自公司2003 年成立以来，蒂尔一直是公司最大的个人股东之一，并且担任董事长。截至发稿，Palantir下跌3.46%。 ⑧【贵金属股普跌】美股贵金属盘前普跌。截至发稿，赫克拉矿业下跌6.21%，纽蒙特黄金公司下跌 3.53%，泛美白银下跌4.6%。现货黄金价格下跌1.11%，报5260美元/盎司；现货白银价格下跌6.04%， 报83.96美元/盎司。 ⑨【派拉蒙天舞收购华纳兄弟后，其债务评级被下调至垃圾级】当地时间3月2日，据媒体报道，在派拉 蒙天舞收购华纳 ...

①【三大期指齐跌超1%】截至发稿，道指期货跌1.14%、标普500指数期货跌1.50%、纳指期货跌 1.96%。 ②【石油股盘前多数上涨，美国能源涨超18%】石油股盘前多数上涨。截至发稿，埃克森美孚上涨 2.00%，雪佛龙上涨1.56%，康菲石油公司上涨2.49%，美国能源上涨18.26%。WTI原油期货上涨 5.19%，报74.97美元/桶。 ③【军工股集体走强】军工股盘前集体走强。截至发稿，洛克希德马丁上涨1.56%，雷神技术公司上涨 0.82%。 ⑨【派拉蒙天舞收购华纳兄弟后，其债务评级被下调至垃圾级】当地时间3月2日，据媒体报道，在派拉 蒙天舞收购华纳兄弟之后，惠誉评级将派拉蒙天舞的企业评级和长期借款人评级下调至BB+垃圾级。因 为这笔交易将使合并后的公司背负790亿美元的净债务。截至发稿，派拉蒙天舞下跌5.55%。 ④【航空股普跌】美股航空盘前普跌。截至发稿，美国航空下跌3.12%，达美航空下跌3.05%，美国联 合航空下跌2.91%。 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前核实。据此操作，风险自担。 ⑦【联合创始人计划出售2.8亿美元股票，Palantir跌超3%】当地时间3月2 ...

记者丨曾静娇 编辑丨黎雨桐 受中东局势紧张加剧影响， 3月3日，国际油价震荡走高，傍晚突然强势拉升，截至北京时间 17:35，WTI原油期货向上触及75美元/桶，日内上涨5.53%，创2025年6月以来新高；ICE布油 逼近82美元/桶，日内上涨5.36%。 | | | NYMEX WTI原油 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | CL.NYM 延时行情 | | | | | 75.17 | 昨结 | 71.23 | 总手 | 13.90万 | | | +394 | +5.53% 开盘 | 71.23 | 现手 | | 5 | | 最高价 75.21 | 持 仓 | 31.34万 | Ar 물 | | 7.05万 | | 最低价 70.41 | 博 ਦੇ | -9608 | 内 | | 6.85万 | | 分时 五日 | 日K | 園K | 月K | 更多 | | | 叠加 | | | 均价:73.06 | | | | 75.21 | | | 5.59% 卖五 | 75.22 | 10 | | | | | 25 hr | 75.21 | 12 | ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese A-share market, highlighting the performance of various sectors in February 2026, particularly in the context of rising AI capital expenditures and expectations of increased fiscal support from the government [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index and other indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite up by 0.1%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 2.8%. The cyclical sectors, particularly energy, industrials, and materials, led the gains with a 5% increase each [4][6]. - **Investor Sentiment**: Despite robust travel and consumption data during the Spring Festival, investor skepticism remains regarding the sustainability of domestic consumption recovery. Travel numbers reached 596 million, with spending of 803 billion yuan, both up 19% year-on-year [4][6]. - **Liquidity Trends**: A-share liquidity slightly decreased due to profit-taking before the Spring Festival. The turnover rate dropped from approximately 6% in January to about 4% in February, although margin trading balances remained stable [4][20]. - **Sector Performance**: - **Top Performers**: Energy, industrials, and materials sectors performed well, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of fiscal policy support ahead of the National People's Congress [6][12]. - **Underperformers**: Communication services, financials, and healthcare sectors lagged, with declines of 4%, 2%, and 0% respectively, attributed to profit-taking and weak demand [7][12]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Economic Indicators**: The report notes that most economic activity data for January will be released in March to avoid distortions caused by the Spring Festival. The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4, the lowest in 37 months [4][40]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI growth slowed to 0.2% year-on-year, while PPI increased by 0.25%, marking the largest rise in 20 months, primarily due to rising commodity prices [4][42]. - **Funding Flows**: From January 26 to February 20, A-shares saw a net inflow of $392 million, mainly into materials, information technology, and financial sectors, while healthcare and real estate lagged [12][20]. Conclusion - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the Chinese A-share market's performance in February 2026, emphasizing the impact of fiscal policy expectations and geopolitical factors on sector performance. It highlights the mixed sentiment among investors regarding consumption recovery and the overall economic outlook, supported by key economic indicators and funding trends.

Market Performance - On March 2, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.20% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.49%[3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 539.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[1] Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which escalated with an attack on February 28, has increased geopolitical instability, potentially boosting military procurement in related regions[1] - Despite global tensions, the A-share market showed resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining above its 5-day moving average[1] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as oil and gas extraction, precious metals, and port shipping performed well amid rising risk aversion, while the technology sector exhibited significant divergence[1] - The top three sectors for net capital inflow on March 2 were communication equipment, refining and trading, and oil service engineering, while the semiconductor, IT services, and software development sectors saw the largest outflows[4] Economic Indicators - China's GDP for 2025 was reported at 140,187.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% growth rate, with final consumption contributing 2.6 percentage points to this growth[7] - A proposal to distribute 500 yuan in universal consumption vouchers could potentially stimulate consumption by nearly 2 trillion yuan[8] Renewable Energy Development - By the end of 2025, China's renewable energy capacity reached 2.34 billion kilowatts, with renewable energy accounting for approximately 60% of total installed capacity[12]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/3/3 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价全线上涨，美油主力合约涨 5.98%，报 71.03 美元/桶。布油主力合 约涨 6.82%，报 77.85 美元/桶。美以联合空袭伊朗引发中东局势急剧升温，市 场担忧霍尔木兹海峡航运安全及伊朗报复性减产。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，CO ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out [2] - Silver: In a volatile pattern [2] - Copper: Inventory increase restricts the upside space of prices [2] - Zinc: Range-bound fluctuations [2] - Lead: Lacks driving forces, prices are volatile [2] - Tin: Volatile adjustment [2] - Aluminum: Bullish operation [2] - Alumina: Range-bound fluctuations [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: The market trend is rather entangled [2] - Palladium: Expected to consolidate [2] - Nickel: The reality of the Indonesian ore end is catching up, be wary of speculative attributes in March [2] - Stainless steel: The contradiction at the ore end increases marginally, and the cost support center moves up [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,147.90, with a daily increase of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 1,159.98, with a night - session increase of 1.31%. The trading volume was 194,710, an increase of 25,303 from the previous day, and the open interest was 150,146, a decrease of 1,496 from the previous day. The spot gold in London rose 1.88% [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump stated that he would not stop the war until the goal was achieved, and did not rule out sending US ground troops to Iran "if necessary". The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months, and the price index soared to a nearly four - year high. Iran stated that it would not negotiate with the US, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed [4][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1 [7] Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 23,019, with a daily increase of 1.94%, and the night - session closing price was 23,927.00, with a night - session increase of 6.95%. The trading volume was 389,182, an increase of 31,572 from the previous day, and the open interest was 171,170, a decrease of 2,359 from the previous day. The spot silver in London rose 6.30% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 1 [7] Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,850, with a daily decrease of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price was 102,280, with a night - session decrease of 1.51%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 326,580, an increase of 20,754 from the previous day, and the open interest was 574,994, a decrease of 3,504 from the previous day. The LME copper inventory increased by 3,975 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's statement on the Iran war. The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months. Hudbay Minerals obtained approval to expand the Copper Mountain mine. Japan's January copper and copper alloy imports increased by 13.51% year - on - year. Chile's January copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [10] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,850, with a daily increase of 0.57%. The LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 3,308, with a daily decrease of 1.74%. The Shanghai Zinc main contract trading volume was 186,884, an increase of 82,336 from the previous day, and the open interest was 95,630, an increase of 756 from the previous day. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 575 tons [11]. - **News**: Iran refused to negotiate with the US, and the Qatar LNG export plant was attacked, causing the European natural gas futures to soar [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 1 [13] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,895, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1,960, with a daily decrease of 0.96%. The Shanghai Lead main contract trading volume was 60,587, an increase of 11,518 from the previous day, and the open interest was 63,962, an increase of 118 from the previous day. The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 1,888 tons [14]. - **News**: Trump's statement on the Iran war. The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15] Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 444,010, with a daily increase of 2.96%, and the night - session closing price was 416,600, with a night - session decrease of 7.16%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 462,899, an increase of 71,766 from the previous day, and the open interest was 49,947, a decrease of 5,845 from the previous day. The LME tin inventory decreased by 80 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Qatar energy was attacked and stopped LNG production, causing the European gas price to soar. Iran was prepared for a long - term war [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [19] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,465, an increase of 630 from the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,773, an increase of 29 from the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23,180, an increase of 450 from the previous day. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 124.60 million tons, an increase of 7.10 million tons from the previous day [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US federal appellate court rejected the Trump administration's request for tariff refund extension. Morgan Stanley warned that if the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, the Middle East crude oil would face a full - scale shutdown [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [22] Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the platinum futures 2606 was 626.50, with a daily increase of 0.44%. The closing price of the palladium futures 2606 was 463.65, with a daily decrease of 0.26%. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 29,411, and the open interest was 35,729. The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 802, and the open interest was 14,360 [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Uzbekistan stopped gold exports. The US appellate court rejected the Trump administration's request to postpone tariff refunds [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum trend intensity is 0, and palladium trend intensity is 0 [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 140,890, a decrease of 670 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,385, an increase of 180 from the previous day. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,088, an increase of 3 from the previous day [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula. Solway Investment Group planned to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia was between 260 million and 270 million tons [30][31][33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [36]