1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The copper market shows a strengthening upward trend due to factors such as reduced global copper mine supply, decreased domestic inventories, and industry opposition to "involution" competition [3][4][7]. - The alumina market has limited downward space as prices are below the theoretical full - cost, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [11][12][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, with consumption showing resilience as indicated by the reduction in social inventories [18][21]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong, with market expectations being positive [23][25]. - The zinc market may see a small surplus in September, and the overseas market's inventory reduction may support zinc prices, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [30][31]. - The lead market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as multiple factors are intertwined [36][37]. - The nickel market is affected by positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines, and prices are oscillating strongly [40][42]. - The stainless steel market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, with cost support and slow inventory reduction [47][50]. - The tin market has limited supply improvement, weak demand, and prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [54][56]. - The industrial silicon market's price is affected by polysilicon production and market sentiment, and it is recommended to participate with long positions [61][63][64]. - The polysilicon market is expected to see a small increase in inventory, and it is recommended to trade with low - long band operations [66][67][69]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, with supply and demand factors both having an impact [71][72][74]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,710 yuan/ton, up 3.4%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 89,053 lots to 552,800 lots [2]. - Spot: The Shanghai copper spot reported a premium of 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Guangdong market reported a premium of 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the North China market reported a discount of 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Important Information** - As of September 25, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 1.401 million tons compared to Monday, and it was the first weekly decline after four consecutive weeks of increase [3]. - Goldman Sachs lowered its global copper mine supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with a total reduction of 525,000 tons in copper mine supply [4]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Grasberg incident has changed the long - term supply - demand structure, intensifying the tightness of copper mines. The industry's opposition to "involution" competition has increased market bullish sentiment [7]. - Consumption shows a weak peak season, and downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient [7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is rising rapidly, and the bullish trend is strengthening [8]. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10] 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The alumina 2601 contract increased by 48 yuan to 2,942 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot: The alumina spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [11]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the national alumina inventory was 3.797 million tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from last week [12]. - The strike at the Guinean bauxite mine and the reduction in the price of mainstream mines in Guinea and Australia have affected the market [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis** - The price is below the theoretical full - cost, with limited downward space, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price rebounds slightly, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 3,000 yuan [16]. - Arbitrage: Reverse calendar spread arbitrage [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract increased by 80 yuan to 20,765 yuan/ton [18]. - Spot: The aluminum ingot spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China all increased [18]. - **Related Information** - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [18]. - On September 25, the domestic aluminum ingot spot inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [18]. - The 500,000 - ton first - phase electrolytic aluminum project of Indonesia's Adaro - Liqin is expected to be put into production in stages at the end of 2025 [18]. - **Trading Logic** - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market is cautious about further cuts. The rise in copper prices has driven the rebound of LME aluminum, and the reduction in social inventories shows consumption resilience [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Aluminum prices rebound with the sector [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27] 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 20,365 yuan/ton [23]. - Spot: The ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot spot prices in some regions increased, while others remained flat [23]. - **Related Information** - The "Notice on Implementing Policies for Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" has an impact on the recycled aluminum industry [23]. - On September 24, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased [23]. - **Trading Logic** - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday, and the demand for die - casting plants is increasing, with alloy ingot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The alloy futures price rebounds with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [28] 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2511 increased by 0.59% to 22,045 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index's positions decreased by 14,900 lots to 238,500 lots [29]. - Spot: The spot trading in the Shanghai market was average, with downstream enterprises having low enthusiasm for purchasing [29]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the domestic seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.80 million tons compared to September 18 [30]. - A smelter in South China resumed production on September 25, with a total impact of 4,000 tons during the maintenance period [30]. - The winning bid price of a zinc mine in North China decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton [30]. - **Logic Analysis** - The refined zinc supply in September may have a small reduction, but the monthly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream's low - price purchasing has led to a small reduction in social inventories [31]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Affected by the external market, the Shanghai zinc price may oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the LME inventory change [31]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33]. - Options: Wait and see [33] 3.6 Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2511 increased by 0.09% to 17,090 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index's positions decreased by 1,713 lots to 93,600 lots [32]. - Spot: The SMM1 lead average price remained unchanged, and the trading was average [35]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory decreased by 2.13 million tons compared to September 18 [36]. - Some large - scale recycled lead smelters in Anhui and Inner Mongolia have no plans to resume production in the short term [36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The increase in lead prices has repaired the losses of recycled lead smelters, and some enterprises plan to resume production. The downstream may stock up before the National Day [37]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The lead price may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [38]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38] 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 increased by 1,310 to 122,990 yuan/ton, and the index's positions increased by 13,909 lots [40]. - Spot: The premiums of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel changed [40]. - **Related Information** - The Chicago Fed President warned against continuous interest rate cuts [41]. - The Indonesian government sanctioned 25 nickel mining companies [41]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has business cooperation with solid - state battery customers and has shipped nearly 50 tons of solid - state battery materials [42]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Indonesian copper mine accident and the suspension of some nickel mines in Indonesia have boosted nickel prices, but the impact on supply is limited. The net import of refined nickel in August decreased, and LME inventory is expected to increase [42]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly [43]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [44]. - Options: Wait and see [45] 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2511 contract increased by 25 to 12,930 yuan/ton, and the index's positions decreased by 7,520 lots [47]. - Spot: The cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel prices are within a certain range [47]. - **Related Information** - On September 25, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive week, mainly with the digestion of 400 - series resources [48]. - The US import tariff has a serious impact on the stainless steel market [48]. - **Logic Analysis** - The stainless steel production in September has increased significantly, but the demand has not shown seasonal peak characteristics. The slow reduction in inventory and cost support lead to an oscillatory trend [50]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [51]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [52] 3.9 Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,140 yuan/ton or 0.79%, and the positions increased by 2,908 lots to 53,950 lots [54]. - Spot: The spot tin ingot price increased, but the trading was poor, and the downstream demand was weak [54]. - **Related Information** - By 2035, the global 6G user penetration rate will be 22.3% [55]. - The Indonesian government suspended the mining activities of 190 mining enterprises, including about 14 tin - mining enterprises [55]. - **Logic Analysis** - The strong US dollar index restricts price increases. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [56]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation [59]. - Options: Wait and see [60] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [61]. - Spot: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable [62]. - **Related Information** - In August, the export volume of industrial silicon products in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month [63]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production and market sentiment of polysilicon in October have a greater impact on prices [64]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate with long positions [65]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [65]. - Arbitrage: None [65] 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The polysilicon futures main contract oscillated, closing at 51,365 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [66]. - Spot: The polysilicon spot price remained stable, and different types of polysilicon have different price ranges [66]. - **Related Information** - On September 24, Xinjiang Dongfang Hope's first - phase polysilicon production line started annual maintenance, and the third - phase project is ready for maintenance [67]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the 11 - contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt cancellation. The demand in October is expected to weaken, but production will also decrease, and a small inventory increase is expected [69]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Trade with low - long band operations [70]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts [70]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [70] 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2511 contract increased by 680 to 74,040 yuan/ton, the index's positions decreased by 1,551 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 560 to 40,309 tons [71]. - Spot: The SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased [71]. - **Important Information** - The US government is seeking to acquire up to 10% of the equity of American Lithium Corp [72]. - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [72]. - **Logic Analysis** - On the supply side, the lack of processing profit and limited increase in lithium ore imports in September may affect production. On the demand side, although orders are full, the increase in the customer - supplied ratio may reduce downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Lithium prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [74]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [75]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [75]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination [75]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆ (Two empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market shows different trends, with some metals being affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external events [1][2][5]. - Some metals are expected to continue their current trends, while others are facing uncertainties and may enter a period of adjustment or consolidation. Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper significantly increased its positions and continued its upward trend, actively digesting the force majeure of the Grasberg copper mine and domestic smelters' "anti - involution" statements [1]. - Global mine - end supply is tightening, and the environment for processing fee negotiations is difficult. The spot copper price has risen to 82,505 yuan, with a premium of 30 yuan in Shanghai and a refined - scrap price difference exceeding 4,500 yuan [1]. - LME copper is expected to reach $10,500, and the Shanghai copper index may break through the previous high this year and continue to rise to 84,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the East China spot at par. The apparent demand in September was lower than expected, and the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons compared to Monday, with pre - National Day destocking less than in previous years [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price increasing by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is approaching 98 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory is continuously rising. Supply is significantly in excess, and prices are falling. The current price still allows for profit in the production capacity of Shanxi and Henan, making it difficult to trigger production cuts, and alumina is weakly running towards the June low of 2,800 yuan [2]. Zinc - Driven by the sharp rise in copper prices, the non - ferrous metal sector was generally strong, and Shanghai zinc rebounded to recover the previous day's decline. LME zinc rebounded after returning to the 40 - day moving average due to low overseas inventories [2]. - Fundamentally, the domestic market is weak while the overseas market is strong, and the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestic consumption during the peak season is weak, and due to tariff impacts, galvanized sheet exports weakened in August. Affected by the super typhoon "Saola", consumption in the Pearl River Delta region shrank temporarily, and the expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation strengthened [2]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around the 22,000 - yuan mark [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and market trading was dull. The sharp rise in external copper prices drove up nickel prices, but the improvement in its own fundamentals was limited [5]. - The upward trend of stainless steel spot prices is difficult to sustain, but the pre - National Day stocking demand is gradually emerging. Stainless steel mills are still in a state of cost inversion, and cost - side support is emerging [5]. - Nickel inventory increased by 430 tons to 41,500 tons, nickel - iron inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 897,000 tons. Shanghai nickel has exhausted its bullish themes, and nickel prices are weakly running and about to start a downward trend [5]. Tin - Shanghai tin closed up, and the spot tin price increased by 2,300 yuan to 273,700 yuan. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 at night, and LME tin inventory rose to 2,740 tons. Wait for the social inventory data tomorrow and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are in a short - term strong - side oscillation, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,500 tons [6]. - The low - price support for lithium prices is emerging, but the selling actions in the industrial chain are basically completed. After the interest rate cut and the ebb of the "anti - involution" trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [6]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up at 9,055 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang continued to increase slightly, while Sichuan and Yunnan maintained their high operating rates during the wet season. However, the incremental release of demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was insufficient, and the social inventory of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [6]. - Driven by market sentiment and the expected increase in costs, the futures price is short - term strong, but the support for continuous rise is insufficient, and it will mainly continue to oscillate [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly up. On the spot side, the quoted price range of N - type re - feeding materials was basically stable at 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton (SMM) [6]. - In September, the polysilicon industry's production plan was about 130,000 tons (SMM), with limited month - on - month change. In October, due to industry self - discipline, the production plans of silicon wafers and polysilicon are expected to be synchronously reduced, and polysilicon still faces a slight inventory accumulation pressure [6]. - On the policy side, the capacity clearance continues to be gradually promoted, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating at the lower end of the range [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including finance, commodities, and shipping, providing insights into market trends, news events, and investment suggestions for different assets [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, significantly above expectations. The US and EU finalized a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a gold price correction of over 1% and a strong rise in the US dollar index [12][13] - Short - term gold prices face a correction risk due to profit - taking, and investors are advised to reduce positions before the holiday [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Intel is seeking investment and cooperation from Apple, and the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars. Fed official Daly's remarks indicate uncertainty in future interest rate cuts [15][16][17] - While there may be short - term disturbances due to valuation concerns, an overall bullish approach is recommended [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's president met with the US Treasury Secretary, and the UK central bank has internal policy differences. The US has reduced tariffs on EU cars to 15%, and the US dollar is expected to trade in a short - term range [20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Eight departments jointly issued a document to promote digital consumption, and Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure. The STAR Market has strengthened, driving the broader market up. The current market is rising on low volume, and investors are advised to take partial profits [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation and a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market has declined due to tightened liquidity and rising stock markets. A strategy of holding a steepening curve is recommended [25][26][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 60 - 160 tons in US soybean exports. China is rumored to continue purchasing Argentine soybeans, and ANEC has lowered Brazil's September soybean export forecast [29] - The bearish impact of Argentina's export tax exemption may be fully reflected in the price, and the price is expected to trade in a range. Continued attention should be paid to policy changes [29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's July palm oil exports decreased, and production and inventory increased. The oil market rebounded slightly, but the short - term rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see or take small long positions [30][31] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Global crude steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year. Steel prices have rebounded, but the upward space is restricted by fundamentals. A range - bound approach is recommended before the holiday, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand [32][33][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch production rate has increased, and inventory has decreased. The current inventory pressure is manageable, and the price difference between rice and flour may be undervalued. Buying to widen the spread may have a safety margin [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn inventory at the four northern ports has decreased. The price of the 11 - contract has rebounded, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. The 11 - contract is expected to decline more than the 01 - contract after the holiday [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports has remained stable. After the pre - holiday restocking, the coal price is expected to trade in a range around the long - term agreement price [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Some jujubes in Xinjiang are starting to wrinkle, and there are still some green fruits. The futures price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the development of jujubes in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [40][41] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - SNIM plans to increase iron ore production by 2031 and has discovered new resources. The terminal finished product inventory has some pressure, but the raw material side is strong. The iron ore price is expected to be well - supported, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory [43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Orient Hope is conducting maintenance on its polysilicon production line. The polysilicon price is expected to be stable in October. The short - term futures price is expected to trade in a wide range between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [44][48] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's August import and export data of primary polysiloxane showed mixed trends. The price of industrial silicon is expected to trade between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but chasing the price up should be done with caution [49][50] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global copper market had a supply surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. Grasberg copper mine's accident will lead to a significant production loss, and the copper price is expected to rise in the short term. A short - term long strategy is recommended [51][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Trump administration is seeking to acquire up to 10% of Lithium Americas. The short - term price may be supported by pre - holiday restocking, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. A short - term cautious approach and a medium - term short - selling strategy are recommended [56][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has suspended 190 mining enterprises, including 39 nickel mines. The nickel price lacks upward momentum, but it has long - term investment value. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is recommended [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is in a deep contango. The domestic lead market is expected to trade in a bullish range. A strategy of buying on dips and a positive spread arbitrage strategy are recommended [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market has a high cash concentration, and the domestic zinc market is under pressure from the exchange rate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China has declined. The price is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term [63][66][67] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased, and a Russian refinery was attacked. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [68][69][70] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The terminal demand for PX has improved structurally, but the PX market is expected to trade in a weak range in the short term [71][73][74] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA market has seen a partial increase in sales, but the short - term outlook is weak. The price is expected to trade in a weak range [75][76][77] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea inventory has increased. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the export situation and the price range of the 2601 contract [78][79] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined locally. The market is expected to be stable, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [80][81][82] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is stable. The market is expected to trade in a weak range due to poor fundamentals [83][84][85] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price is oscillating in a narrow range. The fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits the downward space. Attention should be paid to domestic policy support [86] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price has increased slightly. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and attention should be paid to production cuts and new capacity [90][91] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market price is stable. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [92][93] 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass market price in Shandong is stable. The futures price has risen due to policy expectations, but the fundamental pressure may limit the upward space. A long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy is recommended [94] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The China - Europe Railway Express has resumed operation. The container freight rate futures market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see or short - selling strategy for the October contract is recommended [95][96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Fed's internal divergence increases policy uncertainty, weakening the US dollar's credit. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and political unrest in Europe boost safe - haven buying. Central bank gold purchases offer long - term support, and the decline of the US dollar index is beneficial for gold prices. Domestic gold prices are relatively stronger than international ones [3]. - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the short - term impact of macro factors on copper prices will decrease. Copper shows certain resilience and may continue to fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton. Supply is tight in the short term, and demand remains stable [17]. - **Aluminum**: The core factors for aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest - rate cut, the macro - drive pauses, and the focus of Shanghai aluminum trading may shift to fundamentals. After a short - term price correction, Shanghai aluminum may fluctuate strongly [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply is in an oversupply state. The market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average. The inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [65]. - **Nickel**: For nickel ore, there are concerns about supply stability. The prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to be strong. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate [80]. - **Tin**: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the impact of macro factors on tin prices decreases. In the short - term supply - tight situation, tin prices may mainly fluctuate [95]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate and consolidate [107]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: Near the National Day holiday, both long and short sides in the technical aspect are closing positions. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and market sentiment is average [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, etc. [4][9][12] - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME copper are provided. The main contract of Shanghai copper is 79,960 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.05% [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various copper spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 80,045 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.04% [23]. - **Import and Processing**: The copper import profit and loss is - 108.53 yuan per ton, with a daily change of - 29.82 yuan and a daily change rate of 37.89%. The copper concentrate TC is - 40.65 US dollars per ton [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 27,419 tons, a daily decrease of 308 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.11%. LME copper inventory is 144,975 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.28% [33][35]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures (main contract, continuous contracts), LME aluminum, and alumina futures are provided. For example, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 20,705 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.1% [40]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various aluminum spot prices are given. For example, the price of East China aluminum is 20,680 yuan per ton, with no daily change [52]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts total 67,736 tons, a daily decrease of 1,224 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.77%. LME aluminum inventory is 517,150 tons, a daily increase of 3,300 tons and a daily increase rate of 0.64% [61]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME zinc are provided. The main contract of Shanghai zinc is 21,860 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.07% [66]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM 0 zinc is 21,820 yuan per ton, a daily decrease of 60 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.27% [71]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts total 57,357 tons, a daily increase of 744 tons and a daily increase rate of 1.31%. LME zinc inventory is 44,400 tons, a daily decrease of 1,375 tons and a daily decrease rate of 3% [76]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest values,环比 differences, and环比 of Shanghai nickel futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME nickel are provided. The main contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,450 yuan per ton, with a环比 increase of 720 yuan and a环比 increase rate of 1% [81]. - **Downstream Situation**: Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate. The market is in a wait - and - see state before the holiday [80]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME tin are provided. The main contract of Shanghai tin is 271,650 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 1,770 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.66% [96]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 271,400 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 700 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.26% [101]. - **Inventory**: The total tin warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,342 tons, a daily decrease of 76 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.18%. LME tin inventory is 2,575 tons, a daily decrease of 5 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.19% [103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are provided. The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closes at 72,880 yuan per ton, with a daily decrease of 780 yuan and a weekly increase of 200 yuan [108]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,850 yuan per ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 700 yuan [110]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipts of Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 39,749, with a daily increase of 300 and a daily increase rate of 0.76% [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot prices are provided. For example, the price of East China 553 industrial silicon is 9,500 yuan per ton, with no daily change [117]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are given. The main contract of industrial silicon is 9,020 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan and a daily increase rate of 1.06% [118].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market remains strong due to expectations of future US liquidity easing, but there are still risks of stagflation in the US and geopolitical conflicts. In the long - term, there is a tendency for global asset allocation to shift towards gold, and short - term fluctuations can be dealt with by a low - buying strategy [2][3]. - The copper market is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and domestic production has declined. The consumption is weak in the peak season, and short - term copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation [5][9][11]. - The alumina market shows a weakening trend. The domestic and overseas spot prices are falling, and the import window is slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea has an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals are weak [13][16]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a stable and slightly strong alloy ingot spot price. The enterprises in some regions are preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday, and the downstream demand is picking up [18]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves significantly [22][25]. - The zinc market may maintain a slight surplus in September. The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the downstream has a replenishment expectation, but the amplitude is limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [27][30]. - The lead market has mixed long and short factors. The supply may increase, and the downstream may stock up before the holiday. The lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level [32][34]. - The nickel market is slightly boosted by the Indonesian policy, but the impact on the supply is limited. The net import is expected to decline, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [36][37]. - The stainless steel market has a supply pressure as the production has increased significantly in September, but the inventory is slowly decreasing, and the cost support is strong. It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [39][41]. - The industrial silicon market has a "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle" inventory structure. The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on the price. It is recommended to participate in long positions [43]. - The polysilicon market has a short - term negative impact on the futures due to the rumor of production resumption. The best strategy is to participate in long positions after the price correction [45][46][47]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a stalemate. The supply increment is limited in the short term, and the demand is strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [48][51][52]. - The tin market has a high - level oscillation. The supply is still tight, and the demand is sluggish. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold hit a new high above $3790 and then fell back, closing up 0.46% at $3764.02 per ounce. London silver first rose and then fell, closing down 0.07% at $44.02 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also had corresponding price changes [2]. - The US dollar index oscillated above 97, closing down 0.08% at 97.22. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.11%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was in a high - level consolidation, closing at 7.1119 [2]. Important资讯 - The Fed officials had different views on interest rates. Powell thought the policy rate was still slightly restrictive, and the market expected further interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October and December was high [2]. - The US September PMI data showed that the economy had some resilience. Geopolitical conflicts also had an impact on the market [2]. Logic Analysis - The market expected future US liquidity easing, but there were still stagflation risks and geopolitical conflicts. The precious metals maintained a strong trend, but there were profit - taking signs at high levels [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a low - buying strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Use collar call options [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 79,970 yuan per ton, up 0.04%. The LME copper closed at $9,993.5 per ton, down 0.08% [5]. - The LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 144,900 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,511 tons to 318,200 tons [5]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission and implied that interest rates were still restrictive [5]. - There were differences within the Fed on future monetary policies. Southern Copper expected stable copper production in Peru this year and had some project plans [5][7][8]. Logic Analysis - Macro factors indicated that interest rates were still restrictive, and the market followed the Fed's statements. Fundamentally, the supply of copper concentrates was tight, and domestic production declined. The consumption was weak in the peak season [9]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term copper prices will be in a high - level consolidation. - Arbitrage: Hold long - short cross - market arbitrage positions. - Options: Wait and see [11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session alumina 2601 contract decreased by 18 yuan to 2,881 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [13]. Important资讯 - There were some spot transactions in different regions, and the prices decreased. The national alumina production capacity operation increased slightly, and the Australian alumina price decreased. The import and export volume of alumina in August had corresponding changes [13][14]. Logic Analysis - The domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina were falling, and the import window was slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea had an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals were weak [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The alumina price will run weakly. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse calendar spread arbitrage. - Options: Wait and see [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 40 yuan to 20,270 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable [18]. Important资讯 - A policy on standardizing investment promotion affected the recycled aluminum industry. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots changed, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched the standard warehouse receipt generation business for casting aluminum alloy [18]. Trading Logic - Some enterprises in Henan, Jiangxi, and Anhui were preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday. The downstream demand was picking up, and the alloy ingot spot price was stable and slightly strong [18]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy futures price will oscillate weakly following the aluminum price. - Arbitrage: Long AD and short AL. - Options: Wait and see [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 20,670 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [22]. Important资讯 - The euro - zone September manufacturing PMI fell into the contraction range, and the US manufacturing PMI was still in the growth range. The electrolytic aluminum inventory in the main markets decreased. An electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia was expected to be put into production in stages. The import and export volume of aluminum ingots in August had corresponding changes [22][23]. Trading Logic - The Fed was cautious about further interest rate cuts. The European manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range. Domestically, attention should be paid to the downstream's inventory - building sentiment and holiday plans [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum price will be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [25]. Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market decreased by 0.36% to $2,889.5 per ton. The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract decreased by 0.09% to 21,935 yuan per ton [27]. - The spot price in Shanghai was in a certain range, and the trading was not active [27]. Important资讯 - The domestic zinc inventory decreased in some regions and increased in others. Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong was expected to decline [27][28]. Logic Analysis - The domestic refined zinc supply in September may decrease slightly, but the monthly output was still at a relatively high level. The downstream enterprises bought at low prices, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downstream had a replenishment expectation before the National Day, but the amplitude was limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [28][30]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term zinc price will oscillate in a range. Pay attention to the LME inventory change. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [30]. Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market decreased by 0.03% to $1,999 per ton. The Shanghai lead 2511 contract decreased by 0.2% to 17,090 yuan per ton [32]. - The SMM1 lead average price decreased, and the price difference between different regions and types of lead existed. The transaction of recycled refined lead was under pressure [32]. Important资讯 - The SMM lead ingot social inventory decreased. The import volume of lead concentrates in August increased, and the import and export volume of lead - acid batteries decreased [32][33][34]. Logic Analysis - The lead price strengthened, and the loss of domestic recycled lead smelting was repaired. Some enterprises planned to resume production. The downstream lead - storage enterprises may stock up before the holiday. The lead price was expected to oscillate at a high level [34]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term lead price will oscillate at a high level. Try short positions at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price increased to $15,340 per ton, and the inventory increased. The Shanghai nickel main contract increased to 121,740 yuan per ton [36]. - The spot premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [36]. Important资讯 - Indonesia punished some mining companies, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo was considering extending the cobalt export ban [36]. Logic Analysis - The nickel price was slightly boosted by Indonesia's policy, but the impact on the supply was limited. The net import of refined nickel decreased, and the LME inventory was expected to increase. The positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines supported the nickel ore price, but the upward momentum was insufficient. The nickel price will oscillate in a wide range [37]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main stainless steel SS2511 contract increased to 12,940 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [39]. Important资讯 - Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", Foshan implemented "five - stop" measures [39]. Logic Analysis - The stainless steel production in September increased significantly, but the demand did not show seasonal peak - season characteristics. The supply pressure existed, but the inventory was slowly decreasing, and the cost support was strong. The price was expected to oscillate [41]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The Tuesday industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated narrowly, closing down 2.3% at 8,925 yuan per ton. The spot price was stable [43]. Important资讯 - The export volume of industrial silicon products in August increased year - on - year and month - on - month [43]. Comprehensive Analysis - The industrial silicon inventory structure was "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle". The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment had a greater impact on the price. It was recommended to participate in long positions [43]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options. - Arbitrage: None [43]. Polysilicon Market Review - The Tuesday polysilicon futures main contract decreased and then rebounded, closing at 50,260 yuan per ton, down 2.745. The spot price was stable [45][46]. Important资讯 - The August全社会用电量 data was released, showing an increase year - on - year [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - The rumor of polysilicon production resumption in October was a short - term negative factor. The spot price was rising, and the best strategy was to participate in long positions after the price correction [46][47]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions after sufficient price correction [47]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract decreased to 73,660 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased. The GQEX warehouse receipt increased. The spot prices of electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate were stable [48]. Important资讯 - India had requirements for the procurement of components, battery cells, and silicon wafers in the ALMM project. Chile submitted the lease agreement for lithium production [49][51]. Logic Analysis - The lithium price was in a stalemate. The short - term supply increment was limited, and the demand was strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [51]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. - Options: Sell wide - straddle options [49][52]. Tin Market Review - The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 271,090 yuan per ton, up 0.31%. The LME tin inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory decreased significantly [54][57]. - The Shanghai metal network spot tin ingot average price decreased. The spot trading atmosphere improved, but the downstream demand was still limited [54]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission, and the Fed officials had different views on interest rates [56]. - An Indonesian tin ore producer planned to increase production next year, and a US tin smelter started construction [57]. Logic Analysis - The Fed had differences on future monetary policies. The tin ore supply was still tight, but there were short - term improvement signs. The demand was sluggish, and the consumption electronics and home appliance industries only slightly recovered. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation. - Options: Wait and see [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].

Copper - Copper prices experienced narrow fluctuations overnight, with macroeconomic factors influencing the market. Fed Chairman Powell indicated risks of inflation and employment, reiterating that tariffs are expected to have a one-time impact on prices, without suggesting support for rate cuts next month. He also warned about high valuations in the US stock market, signaling potential risks [1] - Domestic monetary policy remains supportive, with the central bank's governor stating no adjustments to short-term policies are planned. The current stance is to implement moderately loose monetary policy [1] - Inventory levels showed a decrease in LME copper by 400 tons to 144,975 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 91 tons to 288,837 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts fell by 2,166 tons to 27,727 tons, and BC copper decreased by 25 tons to 6,445 tons [1] - Demand from downstream sectors is weak due to high copper prices and macroeconomic uncertainties, with concerns over pre-holiday inventory replenishment [1] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.92% to $15,340 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 0.47% to 121,740 yuan per ton. LME inventory rose by 1,554 tons to 230,454 tons, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 72 tons to 25,464 tons [2] - Nickel ore prices remained stable, and stainless steel weekly inventory showed a significant decrease. Nickel iron prices strengthened, providing cost support, although supply increased [2] - In the new energy sector, demand for ternary materials slightly weakened in September, but cobalt policies may lead to tight MHP supply. The overall nickel price may see slight upward movement due to macroeconomic factors and rising nickel iron and MHP prices, although inventory remains a significant resistance [2] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy - Alumina prices showed a weak trend, with AO2601 settling at 2,881 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a slight decline, with AL2510 at 20,670 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [3] - Aluminum alloy prices remained strong, with AD2511 at 20,305 yuan per ton, up 0.22%. SMM alumina prices fell to 3,032 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingot prices showed a slight decrease [3] - The recovery of alumina plants has increased social inventory pressure, while domestic mines have not resumed production, leading to a decline in ore inventory. Overall, alumina remains bearish but may have reached a bottom [3] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a weak trend, with the main contract at 8,925 yuan per ton, down 2.3%. The reference price for industrial silicon was 9,604 yuan per ton, up 121 yuan from the previous trading day [4] - Polysilicon prices also declined, with the main contract at 50,260 yuan per ton, down 2.74%. The N-type polysilicon price rose to 52,500 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in the minimum delivery price [4] - The energy consumption policy draft for polysilicon has slightly raised standards, but the overall impact remains moderate. There is a strong sentiment for production and export in the polysilicon market, leading to a divergence between policy and actual supply-demand dynamics [4] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2511 contract fell by 0.16% to 73,660 yuan per ton. The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,850 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade was at 71,600 yuan per ton [5] - Import data showed that in August 2025, China imported 61.92 million tons of lithium spodumene, a decrease of 17.5% month-on-month. Carbonate imports increased by 57.8% month-on-month and 23.5% year-on-year [5] - Weekly production increased by 400 tons to 20,363 tons, with significant contributions from various lithium extraction methods. Inventory levels decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons, primarily driven by downstream replenishment [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Short - term copper prices are under slight pressure due to macro factors, supply tightness, and weak terminal consumption. The cross - market long - position arbitrage should be continued, and options should be on hold [4][11]. - Alumina: Alumina prices are expected to run weakly. The domestic and international spot prices are falling in resonance, and the fundamentals are in a weak trend [13][14]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices are expected to remain weak in the short term until there is a significant improvement in consumption. Arbitrage and options should be on hold for now [19][22]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures is expected to run weakly following the aluminum price. Arbitrage and options should be on hold [26][29]. - Zinc: Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Overseas de - stocking may support zinc prices, but there is a risk of further decline if LME stocks increase significantly [32]. - Lead: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply may increase, and downstream enterprises may stock up before the holiday, resulting in a combination of long and short factors [37]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock. Although demand is in the peak season, supply is growing faster, and the net import in September is expected to decline [42]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Production has increased in September, but demand has not shown seasonal strength, and there is both supply pressure and cost support [49][51]. - Tin: Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and demand is sluggish, but there are signs of short - term supply improvement [55]. - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices may continue to correct in the short term. The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on prices [63]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices are expected to rise after a sufficient correction. Although there is a risk of demand decline in October, the spot price is firm under the restricted sales background [67]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range shock. The supply and demand are both strong, but there is hedging pressure and a slight increase in the customer - supplied ratio next month [70][72]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 79,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.25%, and the Shanghai Copper index reduced its position by 10,887 lots to 466,700 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract of alumina decreased by 57 yuan to 2,877 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions also declined [8]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 85 yuan to 20,685 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased by 70 yuan/ton [16]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The 2511 contract of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 60 yuan to 20,255 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained flat [25]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 decreased by 0.68% to 21,845 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc index increased its position by 10,195 lots to 250,300 lots. The spot market trading was not as good as the previous day [28][30]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 decreased by 0.44% to 17,085 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead index reduced its position by 1,965 lots to 99,000 lots. The spot price of SMM1 lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton [33]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 decreased by 720 to 120,910 yuan/ton, and the index increased its position by 4,391 lots. The premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract SS2511 of stainless steel decreased by 20 to 12,890 yuan/ton, and the index reduced its position by 4,758 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [47]. - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2510 closed at 269,880 yuan/ton, a decline of 1,480 yuan/ton or 0.55%, and the position decreased by 1,058 lots to 52,059 lots. The spot price of tin decreased, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 8,925 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%. The spot price remained stable [60][61]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures increased its position and then decreased, and finally rebounded, closing at 50,260 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.745. The spot price remained stable [64]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate decreased by 120 to 73,660 yuan/ton, and the index reduced its position by 19,991 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 540 to 39,449 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [68]. Important Information - **Copper**: In August, China's copper concentrate imports increased, and the export of copper cables showed different performances in different regions. The copper mine supply was tight, and the production in some regions decreased [3][4]. - **Alumina**: There were transactions in the spot market, and the import and export volumes in August changed. The freight policy in Henan affected the inventory of downstream factories [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: There were diplomatic meetings, inventory changes, and information about the start - up of an overseas project. The import and export volumes of aluminum ingots in August also changed [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: A policy affected the recycled aluminum industry, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots changed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange started the standard warehouse receipt generation business for cast aluminum alloy [25]. - **Zinc**: The domestic refined zinc inventory changed, and the start - up rate of压铸 zinc alloy enterprises was affected by the typhoon [31]. - **Lead**: The import of lead concentrate increased, and the import and export of lead - acid batteries decreased [36]. - **Nickel**: There were some news about the mining company in Indonesia and the cobalt export policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [41]. - **Stainless Steel**: The import tariff affected the stainless steel market, and the import volume from Vietnam decreased. The apparent consumption of stainless steel in China increased [48]. - **Tin**: China's tin ore imports in August changed, and an Indonesian mining company planned to increase production. An American tin smelter started construction [54]. - **Industrial Silicon**: China's industrial silicon exports in August increased [62]. - **Polysilicon**: The national energy consumption data in August was released [65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There were news about the carbon emission trading market and the lithium production cooperation in Chile [69]. Logic Analysis - **Copper**: Macro factors, supply tightness, and weak terminal consumption led to short - term pressure on copper prices [4]. - **Alumina**: The domestic and international spot prices were falling in resonance, and the supply of bauxite was expected to increase, resulting in a weak fundamental trend [13]. - **Aluminum**: The Fed's attitude towards further interest rate cuts was cautious, and the domestic market needed to pay attention to downstream stocking before the holiday [19]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Enterprises stocked up in advance, and the start - up rate of die - casting factories increased, so the alloy ingot price was expected to be stable and slightly strong [26]. - **Zinc**: The supply of refined zinc in September might decrease slightly, but it was still at a relatively high level. The downstream replenishment was expected to be limited, and the overseas de - stocking might support zinc prices [32]. - **Lead**: The supply of lead ingots might increase, and downstream enterprises might stock up before the holiday, resulting in a combination of long and short factors [37]. - **Nickel**: Although demand was in the peak season, supply was growing faster, and the net import in September was expected to decline [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: Production increased in September, but demand did not show seasonal strength, and there was both supply pressure and cost support [49][51]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore was still tight, and demand was sluggish, but there were signs of short - term supply improvement [55]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inventory structure was "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment had a greater impact on prices [63]. - **Polysilicon**: There was a short - term negative impact on the futures price, but the spot price was rising steadily, and it was recommended to buy after a sufficient correction [67]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply increase was limited in the short term, and demand was strong, but there was hedging pressure and a slight increase in the customer - supplied ratio next month [70][72]. Trading Strategies - **Copper**: Short - term short - selling for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market long - position arbitrage, and hold options [11]. - **Alumina**: Single - side trading, expect prices to run weakly [14]. - **Aluminum**: Single - side trading, expect prices to remain weak in the short term; hold for arbitrage and options [22][23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Single - side trading, expect prices to run weakly following the aluminum price; hold for arbitrage and options [29]. - **Zinc**: Single - side trading, expect prices to fluctuate within a range; hold for arbitrage and options [32]. - **Lead**: Single - side trading, expect prices to fluctuate at a high level, and try short - selling at high prices; hold for arbitrage and options [38]. - **Nickel**: Single - side trading, expect wide - range shocks; hold for arbitrage and options [43][44][45]. - **Stainless Steel**: No specific trading strategy was mentioned in the report. - **Tin**: Single - side trading, expect high - level shocks [56]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Single - side trading, buy after the correction stabilizes; sell out - of - the - money put options; no arbitrage strategy [63]. - **Polysilicon**: Single - side trading, buy after a sufficient correction; conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; no option strategy [67]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Single - side trading, expect wide - range shocks; hold for arbitrage; sell wide - straddle option combinations [73].

Report Summary 1. Overall Information - Report Title: Galaxies Non - ferrous Metals R & D Report - Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Daily Morning Observation - Date: September 23, 2025 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core Views - The precious metals market shows strong upward momentum, with gold hitting a new high and silver reaching its highest level since May 2011. The market is influenced by factors such as Fed interest rate expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation concerns [2]. - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals. Although there is potential for further interest rate cuts, there are differences among policymakers. Supply is tight, and consumption shows a "peak season is not prosperous" situation [6][8]. - The alumina market has a weak fundamental trend, with domestic and foreign spot prices falling in resonance, and the import window opening slightly [11][13]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a positive market expectation, with alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [16][18]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by Fed interest rate policies and domestic downstream demand. After the price correction, attention should be paid to the downstream stocking sentiment before the holidays [21][23]. - The zinc market has support at the bottom in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, mainly due to the potential reduction in domestic supply and the downstream pre - holiday stocking demand [25][26]. - The lead market has a situation where long and short factors are intertwined, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [29][31]. - The nickel market maintains a wide - range oscillatory trend, with supply increasing faster than demand, and the price is affected by factors such as news from Indonesia and the Philippines [33][36]. - The stainless steel market is expected to remain oscillatory, with supply pressure above and support below due to factors such as production scheduling, inventory, and cost [39][42]. - The industrial silicon market may continue to correct in the short term, and the impact of polysilicon production scheduling and market sentiment on the price is greater [44][46]. - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward trend in spot prices, and the best strategy is to wait for the price to correct sufficiently before going long [48][50]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong in the short term, with supply and demand both being strong [52][55]. - The tin market is expected to remain oscillatory at a high level, with tight supply at the mine end and weak demand [57][60]. 4. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review** - Gold: London gold rose by over $60 during the day, hitting a new high of over $3740, and finally closed up 1.67% at $3746.63 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 1.46% to 850.98 yuan per gram [2]. - Silver: London silver reached its highest level since May 2011, closing up 2.38% at $44.02 per ounce. Shanghai silver futures rose 1.77% to 10348 yuan per kilogram [2]. - Dollar Index: It first rose and then fell, ending a three - day winning streak, closing down 0.38% at 97.30 [2]. - US Treasury Yield: The 10 - year US Treasury yield continued to rebound, closing at 4.151% [2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: It fluctuated within a narrow range, closing down 0.07% at 7.1138 [2]. - **Important Information** - Fed officials' views are divided on further interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. In December, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 75.3% [2]. - **Logic Analysis** - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps last week, the expectation of two more cuts this year remains high. The risk of stagflation in the US still exists, and geopolitical conflicts occasionally emerge, driving gold prices higher. Silver shows greater upward elasticity [2]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Continue the low - buying idea. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 80100 yuan per ton, down 0.02%. The Shanghai copper index decreased by 6971 lots to 470,600 lots. LME copper closed at $10002 per ton, up 0.06% [6]. - Spot: LME inventory decreased by 2275 tons to 145,300 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1511 tons to 318,200 tons [6]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US leaders' phone call improved market sentiment. Fed officials have different views on further interest rate cuts. Argentina plans to develop copper resources [6][8]. - **Logic Analysis** - Macro - factors are positive, but there are differences among policymakers on interest rate cuts. Supply is tight due to production accidents and other reasons, and consumption is weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The copper price may consolidate at a high level in the short term. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage positions. - Options: Wait and see [9]. Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2906 yuan per ton [11]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased, with the national weighted index down 1.2 yuan to 3009 yuan [11]. - **Important Information** - Xinjiang's alumina spot tender price decreased. The operating capacity increased slightly. Australian alumina prices decreased, and China's alumina import and export data changed [11][13]. - **Logic Analysis** - Domestic and foreign spot prices are falling, the import window is slightly open, and the fundamentals are weak [13]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The alumina price is expected to be weak. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [14]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 20265 yuan per ton [16]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased by 100 yuan per ton [16]. - **Important Information** - Policies affect the recycled aluminum industry. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in some regions changed, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched the standard warehouse receipt generation business for casting aluminum alloy [18]. - **Logic Analysis** - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday. The downstream production rate is rising, and the market expectation is positive [18]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: After the aluminum alloy futures price pulls back from a high level, pay attention to the rebound opportunity supported by fundamentals. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 55 yuan to 20715 yuan per ton [21]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased [21]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US leaders' phone call. The inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project is progressing as planned, and China's aluminum export data changed [21][23]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Fed is cautious about further interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking sentiment before the holidays [23]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: After the aluminum price pulls back, pay attention to the opportunity of stabilizing and rebounding. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [23]. Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: LME zinc rose 0.05% to $2900 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2511 rose 0.18% to 22035 yuan per ton. The Shanghai zinc index decreased by 1558 lots to 238,500 lots [25]. - Spot: The spot price in Shanghai increased slightly, and the downstream buying sentiment was strong [25]. - **Important Information** - The domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the import data of zinc concentrate and refined zinc changed [25][26]. - **Logic Analysis** - Domestic supply may decrease slightly, and downstream pre - holiday stocking demand exists. The LME zinc price is supported by inventory reduction [26]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The zinc price may fluctuate within a range in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: LME lead fell 0.17% to $1999.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2511 rose 0.03% to 17165 yuan per ton. The Shanghai lead index increased by 862 lots to 101,800 lots [29]. - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead was flat. The trading volume was limited due to limited supply and high prices of recycled refined lead [29]. - **Important Information** - The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, and the import data of lead concentrate and lead - acid batteries changed [29][31]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply may increase as some smelters plan to resume production, and downstream enterprises may stock up before the holiday. The price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [31]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The lead price may remain volatile at a high level in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [34][32]. Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: LME nickel fell $70 to $15200 per ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2511 fell 220 yuan to 121410 yuan per ton. The index position increased by 1326 lots [33]. - Spot: The premiums of different nickel products were flat [33]. - **Important Information** - Rumors about an Indonesian mining company were refuted. The Democratic Republic of the Congo may extend the cobalt export ban [33][36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The nickel price pulled back with the weak commodity market. Supply is increasing faster than demand, and the price is affected by news from Indonesia and the Philippines [36]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [37]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2511 contract rose 25 yuan to 12935 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased by 1804 lots [39]. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [41]. - **Important Information** - US import tariffs affect the stainless steel market. Taiwan's imports from Vietnam decreased. China's stainless steel consumption increased [41]. - **Logic Analysis** - Production scheduling has increased, but demand has not shown seasonal strength. The price is expected to remain oscillatory [42]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [42]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main industrial silicon futures contract decreased by 0.83% to 8950 yuan per ton, with significant position reduction [44]. - Spot: The spot price increased by 100 - 150 yuan per ton [44]. - **Important Information** - Yunnan silicon plants plan to reduce production due to electricity price increases. The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle" [46]. - **Logic Analysis** - The inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The impact of polysilicon production scheduling and market sentiment on the price is greater [46]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate after the price stabilizes from the correction. - Options: Look for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money put options. - Arbitrage: None [46]. Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main polysilicon futures contract decreased by 3.63% to 50990 yuan per ton, with position increase [48]. - Spot: The spot price was stable [48]. - **Important Information** - Spain's self - use photovoltaic installation capacity has declined for three consecutive years [48]. - **Logic Analysis** - The spot price is likely to rise in the long term. There are short - term negative factors for futures, and the best strategy is to go long after the price correction [50]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Go long after the price corrects sufficiently. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. - Options: None [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2511 contract decreased by 140 yuan to 73480 yuan per ton. The position and warehouse receipts decreased [52]. - Spot: The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased [52]. - **Important Information** - Canada's renewable energy market has great potential, and China's lithium - ion battery export data increased [52][55]. - **Logic Analysis** - The price pulled back due to the weak commodity market. Supply growth is limited, and demand is strong. The price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong [55]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Oscillatory and slightly strong. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract decreased by 0.28% to 270610 yuan per ton, and the position increased by 263 lots [57]. - Spot: The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased [57]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US relations and Fed officials' views. An Indonesian tin company expects to achieve its production target [57][59]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply at the mine end is tight, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's复产 and electronic consumption recovery [60]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Remain oscillatory at a high level. - Options: Wait and see [61].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 73,660.00 | +240.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -161,820.00 | -9174.00↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 255,907.00 | -15717.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -160.00 | +120.00↑ | 期货市场 | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 39,449.00 | +540.00↑ | | | | | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 73,850.00 | 0.00 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 71,600.00 | 0.00 | 现货市场 | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 190.00 | -240.00↓ | | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 876.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝石平均价（日， ...