Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative potential of AI in the real estate industry, highlighting the launch of the "AI-Ready" strategy by Deep Intelligence, which aims to integrate AI deeply into the real estate sector, marking a shift from efficiency tools to comprehensive system restructuring [1][4]. Group 1: Growth Path - The real estate industry in China is entering a "stock era," focusing on operational efficiency, with Deep Intelligence positioning itself as a leader in AI innovation for this sector [2]. - Deep Intelligence builds on a solid foundation from its parent companies, leveraging 30 years of industry experience and 20 years of big data expertise to establish a clear development path towards "AI + Real Estate" [2]. - The company has developed core products that match the capabilities of mid to senior-level employees, demonstrating a strong understanding of the real estate domain compared to other AI platforms [2]. Group 2: AI-Ready Framework - Deep Intelligence's "AI-Ready" framework signifies readiness across data, knowledge, technology, business, and organization, encapsulated in a structured intelligent architecture [3]. - This framework acts as a vertical "intelligent operating system," ensuring consistency and professionalism from strategy to execution, delivering value in efficiency, cost, and quality [3]. Group 3: Building a Strong Moat - Deep Intelligence constructs a robust moat through four core capabilities: data, knowledge, industry expertise, and technology, creating a dedicated AI space for real estate [7][8]. - The data moat involves upgrading extensive datasets into a structured database for AI model accessibility, while the knowledge moat transforms unstructured knowledge into verifiable and retrievable formats [7]. - The industry moat incorporates expert "thinking coding" into AI, enabling it to replicate expert-level business understanding, while the technology moat ensures the integration of cutting-edge AI capabilities into products [8]. Group 4: Application Scenarios - Deep Intelligence has launched a series of eight products covering three major real estate scenarios, marking a significant step in making AI a reliable productivity tool in the industry [9]. - The company has restructured decision-making workflows in real estate, allowing users to obtain comprehensive analysis reports in a fraction of the time previously required [10]. - The introduction of "digital employees" signifies a new organizational model where AI collaborates with human workers, enhancing efficiency in various real estate tasks [11]. Group 5: Future Collaboration - Looking ahead to 2026, Deep Intelligence aims to strengthen its core advantages, iterate on products based on industry feedback, and open its capabilities and data interfaces to foster more AI applications in real estate [14]. - The "AI-Ready" initiative is not just about technology readiness but also invites collaboration across the industry to co-create an intelligent future [14].

Core Viewpoint - Vanke A's liquidity issues have led to a downgrade in its credit rating, with significant portions of its equity frozen due to legal actions, raising concerns about its financial stability and ability to meet short-term debt obligations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Health and Credit Rating - Vanke A's credit rating was downgraded to "CCC-" by S&P due to unsustainable financial commitments and risks of default or restructuring [1]. - The company has seen its equity in over 12 enterprises frozen, with the highest value being 570 million yuan related to Shenzhen Vanke Development Co., indicating severe liquidity issues [3][4]. - As of Q3 2025, Vanke A reported cash holdings of 65.7 billion yuan, while its interest-bearing liabilities totaled 362.9 billion yuan, leading to a significant short-term debt gap [4][5]. Group 2: Comparison with Peers - In comparison to peers like Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou, Vanke A has faced more severe liquidity challenges, with its stock price dropping significantly over the past two years [7][8]. - Other companies in the sector, such as China Merchants Shekou, reported a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.3, indicating better financial health [7]. Group 3: Market Reaction and Stock Performance - Following the news of equity freezes, Vanke A's stock price has experienced multiple declines, with a 15% drop in five trading days after the announcement of the 570 million yuan freeze [8][9]. - The stock has seen a 50% decline from early 2024 to December 11, 2025, making it the worst performer in the real estate sector during this period [8]. Group 4: Potential Solutions and Actions - Vanke A has options to resolve its liquidity issues, including settling debts, negotiating with creditors, or liquidating frozen assets to meet obligations [9]. - The company received a loan of up to 1.666 billion yuan from its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, to alleviate short-term financial pressures [9].

Economic Overview - In November, the national economy continued to operate smoothly, with a focus on high-quality development and stable production supply [1][3] - The total grain output for the year reached 14.298 trillion jin, an increase of 167.5 billion jin or 1.2% year-on-year [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial production showed stable growth, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 4.8% year-on-year in November and 6.0% from January to November [1] - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 59,503 billion yuan from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [1] Service Sector - The service sector maintained steady growth, with the service production index rising by 4.2% year-on-year in November and 5.6% from January to November [1] - The revenue of large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.6% year-on-year from January to October [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [2] - Rural retail sales grew by 2.8%, while urban retail sales increased by 1.0% [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, while manufacturing investment grew by 1.9% [2] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 15.9% [2] Trade Performance - The total import and export value in November was 38,987 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [2] - Exports increased by 5.7% to 23,456 billion yuan, while imports rose by 1.7% to 15,531 billion yuan [2] Employment and Prices - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]

合景泰富集团(01813)发布公告，2025年11月，本集团及其合营企业及联营公司的预售额为人民币5.11亿 元，与去年同期相比减少21.4%。本集团及其合营企业及联营公司的预售建筑面积约为2.87万平方米， 与去年同期相比减少12.8%。 ...

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Economic Overview - The economic data for November indicates a significant lack of effective demand, with industrial added value year-on-year at 4.8%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, primarily due to base effects [1][5][21] - The demand side shows a clear divergence, with export growth rebounding while domestic demand remains weak: fixed asset investment year-on-year is approximately flat at -11%, real estate sales area decline has slightly narrowed, but sales revenue decline has widened, and retail sales growth has significantly slowed to 1.3% year-on-year [1][5][21] Industrial Performance - The seasonally adjusted industrial added value month-on-month is 0.44%, higher than October and roughly in line with the average for the previous ten months, indicating little change in the real intensity of industrial production [17][24] - High-tech industries saw a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, leading the growth, with significant production increases in integrated circuits and industrial robots; however, production of smartphones and solar cells experienced negative year-on-year growth [8][25][23] Retail Sales - The seasonally adjusted retail sales month-on-month decreased by 0.42%, marking the lowest point of the year; the highest absolute growth was in communication equipment at 20.6% year-on-year, while durable goods like home appliances and automobiles showed the lowest growth due to high base effects and reduced promotional efforts [2][11][26] Fixed Asset Investment - The seasonally adjusted fixed asset investment month-on-month decreased by 1.03%, slightly better than the previous value of -1.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 11.1%, consistent with the previous value [3][12][27] - Manufacturing investment saw a narrowing decline, while real estate investment's decline widened; infrastructure investment remained relatively unchanged [3][12][27] Real Estate Sector - Real estate-related indicators remain at low levels, with a slight narrowing in the decline of sales area, but an expansion in the decline of sales revenue; new construction area also saw a slight narrowing in decline, while construction area decline expanded [4][14][29] - The price index for new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, slightly better than October's 0.5% decline, but still at a high point for the year [4][14][29] GDP and Economic Policy - The actual GDP index simulated from industrial added value and service production index year-on-year was 4.31%, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.02% for the first eleven months [15][30] - The latest central economic work conference highlighted the need to address the prominent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing investment and boosting consumption [20][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and social consumer goods retail总额 were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate exceeded expectations [4][23]. - The year - on - year decline of real estate sales volume and price continued in November, and the data in early December also showed the same trend [4][23]. - As of the end of October, 5000 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments had been fully invested, but the investment data in October and November did not show obvious improvement [4][23]. - The relatively stable international environment after the China - US summit at the end of October is beneficial to China's exports, and stable export confidence is conducive to the growth of private investment [4][23]. - The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy next year to promote investment to stop falling and rebound and boost consumption [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 2.2% decline [1][5]. - From January to November, the broad infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 0.1% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 1.5% [1][5]. - From January to November, the manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 0.6% [1][5]. - From January to November, the national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 15.4% decline [1][5]. - From January to November, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 5.3% year - on - year [5]. - In November, manufacturing investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year, and narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 9.7% year - on - year [5]. - In November, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.03% month - on - month, showing a continuous decline for ten consecutive months [5]. 3.2 Real Estate - From January to November, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 11.1% year - on - year [2][9]. - In the fourth quarter, the daily average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly year - on - year, and the national real estate sales were still at the bottom [10]. - In November, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, with the decline expanding [2][10]. - In November, the real estate development enterprise's available funds decreased by 32.6% year - on - year [11]. - In November, the new housing start - up area decreased by 28% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 25% year - on - year [11]. 3.3 Industrial Added Value - In November, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.0% [2][12]. - In November, the value - added of high - tech manufacturing increased by 8.4% year - on - year, maintaining rapid growth [2][12]. 3.4 Foreign Trade - In November, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year, exceeding expectations, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year [2][14]. - From January to November, China's cumulative export amount increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative import amount decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [14]. 3.5 Consumption - In November, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.9% [3][18]. - In November, among the retail sales of consumer goods by units above the quota, categories with relatively fast year - on - year growth included communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, etc. Categories with relatively fast year - on - year decline included household appliances and audio - visual equipment, building and decoration materials, etc. [19]. 3.6 Service Industry and Employment - In November, the national service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, hitting a new low for the year [3][21]. - In November, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, remaining the same as the previous month and 0.1 percentage point higher than the same month of the previous year [3][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the number and scale of credit bond defaults decreased significantly, and the credit environment improved. The number of defaulted bonds was 16, with a total default amount of 15.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54 bonds and 77.145 billion yuan respectively [1][11]. - All first - time defaulting entities in 2025 were non - state - owned enterprises, and the number of defaults in the real estate industry decreased. Looking ahead to 2026, real estate may still be the main risk point in the credit bond market, and local risks of some weak - qualified small and medium - sized financial institutions should be vigilant, but the probability of a systemic impact on the market is low [1][13]. - The default rate dropped to a historically low level. In 2025, the marginal default rate was 0.22%, the second - lowest since 2014 [1][22]. - Last week, after an important meeting released a signal of monetary easing, credit bond yields turned downward in the second half of the week but the repair momentum was weak. Looking forward, due to the impact of wealth management funds returning to the balance sheet at the end of the quarter, incremental funds may be limited, and there is insufficient impetus to compress credit spreads. It is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Credit Bond Market Default Feature Summary - **Default Quantity and Scale Decreased Significantly, Credit Environment Improved**: In 2025, the number and amount of defaulted credit bonds continued the downward trend of the previous year. There were 16 defaulted bonds with a total amount of 15.084 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 54 bonds and 77.145 billion yuan respectively. From 2014 - 2025, substantial defaults were the main type in the credit bond market (73.4%), and in 2025, there were 11 substantial defaults and 5 extensions [11]. - **First - time Defaulting Entities were All Non - state - owned Enterprises, Real Estate Industry Default Quantity Decreased**: The 16 first - time defaulted bonds in 2025 came from 12 non - state - owned enterprise issuers, covering 6 industries such as real estate and non - bank finance. Historically, non - state - owned enterprises had significantly more defaults than state - owned enterprises. The real estate industry was still the main risk point in 2026, and local risks of some small and medium - sized financial institutions should be watched out for [13][17]. - **Default Rate Dropped to a Historically Low Level**: In 2025, the marginal default rate was 0.22%, the second - lowest since 2014. The overall recovery rate from 2014 to 2025 was 13.76%, with state - owned enterprises having a higher recovery rate of 27.12% than non - state - owned enterprises at 10.28% [22]. 3.2 Credit Bond Yield Overview - Last week, after an important meeting released a signal of monetary easing, credit bond yields turned downward in the second half of the week but the repair momentum was weak. Overall, credit bond yields showed mixed trends, with financial bonds performing better than non - financial credit bonds, and the 3 - year non - financial credit bonds performing better [27]. - Wealth management scale and the proportion of broken - net products decreased. The average yield of wealth management products had been declining for 6 consecutive weeks since early November. Looking forward, due to the impact of wealth management funds returning to the balance sheet at the end of the quarter, incremental funds may be limited, and there is insufficient impetus to compress credit spreads. It is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy. Institutions with stable liability ends can moderately participate in 3 - year medium - and high - grade bank secondary and perpetual bonds and securities firm subordinated bonds with relatively high spreads [29][36]. 3.3 Primary Market - **Issuance Volume**: Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the net financing scale decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The net financing scale of urban investment bonds and financial bonds decreased month - on - month, while that of industrial bonds increased [37]. - **Issuance Cost**: The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds increased slightly. The average issuance interest rate of urban investment bonds increased month - on - month, while that of industrial and financial bonds decreased [45]. - **Issuance Term**: The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The issuance terms of industrial and financial bonds decreased, while that of urban investment bonds increased [47]. - **Cancellation of Issuance**: The number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances decreased last week [53]. 3.4 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Except for the trading volume of securities firm subordinated bonds, the trading volume of other types of credit bonds rebounded last week, with the trading volume of bank secondary capital bonds increasing by over 13 billion yuan. The trading terms of different types of bonds showed different trends in terms of remaining maturity and implied rating [57][58]. - **Trading Liquidity**: The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased last week. The turnover rates of different terms of each type of bond also showed different trends [59]. - **Spread Tracking**: Last week, most urban investment bond spreads widened, with the 10 - year AA + grade urban investment bond spreads widening the most. Most industrial bond spreads also widened, with the real estate industry having the largest spread widening for both AAA and AA grades. Most bank secondary and perpetual bond spreads narrowed, while the spreads of securities firm subordinated bonds widened across the board, and most insurance subordinated bond spreads narrowed [65][73][76]. 3.5 Weekly Hot Bonds Overview Based on qeubee's bond liquidity scoring, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores were selected for investors' reference [80]. 3.6 Credit Rating Adjustment Review Last week, 3 bonds had their debt ratings downgraded, and there were no upgrades [84].

2025 年 12 月 15 日 总量研究 主要指标进一步回落 要点 事件： 2025 年 12 月 15 日，国家统计局公布 2025 年 11 月经济数据：1）11 月规模以 上工业增加值同比增长 4.8%，前值为增长 4.9%；2）1-11 月固定资产投资累计 同比下降 2.6%，前值为下降 1.7%；3）11 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 1.3%， 前值为增长 2.9%。 点评： 规模以上工业生产同比增速下降但环比增速上升。11 月规模以上工业增加值同 比增长 4.8%，涨幅较 10 月下降 0.1 个百分点。从环比看，2025 年 11 月份规 模以上工业增加值环比增速为+0.44%，较 10 月有所上升。从结构来看，三大门 类中，相对于上月，2025 年 11 月采矿业增加值同比增速上升，但制造业，电力、 热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增加值同比增速则下降。 1-11 月固定资产投资累计同比降幅扩大，但 11 月环比降幅收窄。2025 年 1-11 月固定资产投资累计同比增速为-2.6%，降幅扩大。从环比增速来观察，11 月固 定资产投资环比增速为-1.03%，环比降幅收窄。从结构上来说，11 月房 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 50 期 外贸高频维持高位 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 1、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位。截至 12 月 7 日，我国港口集装箱 吞吐量环比-1.8%，上周环比为-0.3%，四周同比 9.5%，上周为 9.6%。 2、价格：铜价、金价上涨。COMEX 黄金收于 4302.7 美金/盎司，上涨 2.5%； LME 三个月铜价收于 11795 美元/吨，上涨 1.5%。 （二）景气向下 1、华创宏观 WEI 指数有所回落。截至 12 月 7 日，该指数为 4.12%，11 月 30 日的 5.09%下行 0.97%。 2、乘用车零售增速明显回落。12 月第一周，乘用车零售同比增速-32%，前值 +2%。11 月全月同比为-8.1%。 3、地产销售：商品房住宅销售降幅再度扩大。我们统计的 67 个城市，12 月 前 12 日，商品房成交面积同比为-31%。11 月同比为-34%。 4、煤价继续走弱，地产系价格下跌。山西产动力末煤(Q5500)秦皇岛港平仓价 收于 745 元/吨，下跌 5.1%；螺纹钢上海现货价收于 3250 元/吨，下跌 0.6%； ...