【导读】国债等利息收入增值税恢复征收，券商首席最新解读 中国基金报记者 晨曦 事关债券利息征税，新政策来了！ 8 月 1 日，财政部、税务总局联合发布 《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公告》 。 公告显示，自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起，对在该日期之后（含当日）新发行的国债、地方政府债 券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。此次政策调整采用 " 新老划断 " 原则，对 8 月 8 日前已发行的相关债券利息收入，继续免征增值税直至债券到期。 本周五公告发出后， 10 年国债收益率短期上行后明显下行，收盘时 10 年国债和 30 年国债 均下行了 1 个 BP 。这意味着部分投资者考虑到后续新发债券面临的税收压力，更愿意持有 当前国债，市场买盘力量不弱。 恢复征税，将对债券市场及投资者将产生哪些影响？后续还有哪些要点值得关注？基金君整 理了多名券商首席观点解读如下 —— 税收优惠政策的使命已完成 可缓和财政收支压力 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园 认为，此次恢复征收国债、地方政府债券、金融债券利息收入增 值税，主要有两点原因：一是当前债券投资已颇具规模， " 资产荒 " 背景下，国债、地方债 等安全资产已经具 ...

如何理解国债恢复增值税？ 分析师：严伶怡 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn 联系人：苏鸿婷 Email：suht@zts.com.cn 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 1、《政治局会议后，债市或修复》 2025-07-30 2、《经济读数尚可，债市数据交易 进行中》2025-07-15 盘后修复》2025-07-15 证券研究报告/固收事件点评报告 2025 年 08 月 02 日 报告摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 昨日财政部、税务总局公布，自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起，对在该日期之后（含当日）新 发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。对在该日期之 前已发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券(包含在 2025 年 8 月 8 日之后续发行的部 分）的利息收入，继续免征增值税直至债券到期。 我们认为以最直接的思路去理解，对债券市场加征税收，本质上对市场并不算利好。 存量债券的收益没有增加，而新增债券的收益下降，那么最终大概率更多是以新券利 率补偿式上 ...

上周债市经历显著调整，本周则呈现双向宽幅波动特征。10年期国债活跃券收益率本周在1.712%至 1.750%震荡，30年期国债活跃券收益率在1.918%至1.965%震荡，日内波动幅度较6月有所加大。 关注点二是深化改革重要性提升，将现代化产业体系建设相关表述放在深化改革框架之下。新增"反内 卷"相关表述，但注重"无序竞争""产能治理""地方招商"，弱化"低价"问题。 会议强调政策连续性稳定性 关注点三是对资本市场的表述从此前的"稳定和活跃"改为"增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性"，有助 于风险偏好和市场活跃度继续稳步提升。 7月中共中央政治局会议强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性""宏观政策要持续发力、适时 加力""要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应"。在二季度GDP表 现维持韧性、6月经济基本面运行平稳且结构分化的背景下，会议定调下半年宏观政策取向保持积极， 延续一致性导向。 关注点四是扩内需继续放在首位，但取消"两新"表述。稳外贸措辞增加，保民生、促就业仍是重点，安 全工作部署进一步强化。整体表述基本延续去年年底中央经济工作会议精神。 关注点一是充分肯定了今年上 ...

第二件事，是在咱们抛美债的节骨眼儿，美国国务卿鲁比奥突然说，"中美之间要互相尊重"。尊重这个词儿，在中美关系中是咱们说得多，现在鲁比奥引用 咱们的观点，看似释放善意，但其实没安好心。因为他紧接着就表示，"美国立场不可动摇"。什么意思?这种软中带硬的表态，折射出美国深陷战略困境:财 政吃紧逼得美国不得不放低姿态，比如特朗普罕见称赞中国禁毒合作，商务部长计划访华。但他们打压中国的小动作却未停歇，对台军售、封锁围堵行径照 旧。鲁比奥的"尊重"更像是钱袋子紧张时，既想伸手向中国要钱又不愿放下架子的尴尬表演。 中国抛售美债，美国人到底有多慌？为了稳住自家经济，美国政客又想出了哪些招? 最近，三件大事接连发生，像三记重拳把美国金融霸权砸了个底朝天。 第一件大事，就是中国大幅抛售美债，根据最新数据显示，中国手里只剩下 7563亿美元美债，是2009年以来的最低点。要知道，在2022年初咱们手里还有 超万亿美债，这两年多就甩掉了近3000亿。说明这不是临时起意，而是深思熟虑的"止血"行动。为啥?美国人太不靠谱，通胀居高不下，银行利息也高得吓 人，结果就导致美债价格像过山车。再加上特朗普政府频频对华商品加税，所以在五 月份，中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Southbound Connect is an important exploration of China's financial market interconnection. Banks' proprietary trading is the most important investor under the current mechanism and is expected to expand. The annual quota for Southbound Connect is RMB 50 billion equivalent, and investors can choose either multi - level direct connection custody or domestic custody and clearing banks to hold their bond assets, with strict cross - border capital supervision. - As of the end of 2024, the total scale of the Hong Kong bond market exceeded USD 900 billion. It includes the offshore RMB bond market, the Hong Kong dollar bond market, and the Asian G3 currency bond market. G3 currency bonds, especially US dollar bonds issued by Chinese - funded institutions, are an important part of the Hong Kong market. - In the future, with the expansion of the scope of institutions, Southbound Connect will become an important starting point for domestic institutions' overseas bond investment. It is recommended to actively seize overseas opportunities and carefully manage exchange - rate risks [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Financial Market Opening and the Birth of Bond "Southbound Connect" - China's capital market opening process can be divided into three stages: "early opening attempts - expansion of cross - border investment channels - capital market interconnection". Bond "Southbound Connect" is an important exploration in the interconnection stage. - In 2016, the concept of Bond Connect was first proposed. In 2017, Northbound Connect was officially launched, and in 2021, Southbound Connect was launched. Since 2025, regulators have repeatedly mentioned Southbound Connect, clarifying that investors will be expanded to four types of non - bank institutions: securities firms, funds, insurance, and wealth management [4]. 3.2 Analysis of the Bond Southbound Connect System - Participants in Southbound Connect include market - makers and investors. Banks' proprietary trading is the most important investor under the current mechanism. The trading service variety is initially spot bond trading, and the investable bonds are all bond types issued overseas and traded in the Hong Kong bond market. - The annual quota for Southbound Connect is RMB 50 billion equivalent, and the daily quota is RMB 20 billion equivalent. Domestic investors participate in Southbound Connect transactions through the request - for - quote method. - Southbound Connect adopts the nominee holder system. Investors can choose to hold their bond assets through multi - level direct connection custody or domestic custody and clearing banks, with strict cross - border capital supervision. The expansion of Southbound Connect is beneficial for optimizing the investor structure [5]. 3.3 Introduction to the Hong Kong Bond Market - Classified by currency, the Hong Kong bond market includes the offshore RMB bond market, the Hong Kong dollar bond market, and the Asian G3 currency bond market. The Hong Kong dollar bond market has grown steadily in recent years; the offshore RMB bond market expanded significantly in 2024; the issuance scale of the G3 currency bond market rebounded in 2024, with Chinese - funded issuers being the main ones. - Classified by issuer, the Hong Kong bond market can be divided into (quasi -) sovereign bonds and corporate bonds. The former includes Hong Kong government bonds, bonds issued by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, bonds issued by mainland (quasi -) sovereign institutions, and bonds issued by overseas (quasi -) sovereign institutions. The latter includes bonds issued by recognized institutions, public institutions, and private institutions [6].

近日，亚洲基础设施投资银行在我国银行间债券市场首次发行2年期熊猫债，募集20亿元人民币。此次熊猫债发行有"两个创纪录"——发行认购倍数创 亚投行熊猫债发行纪录，并吸引了超30家机构参与，创下亚投行熊猫债发行参与机构数量纪录。什么是熊猫债？发行人有哪些？资金用途是什么？为 何受国际资本青睐？一起来看本期快问快答↓ Q：什么是熊猫债？ A: 按照国际惯例，国外机构在一国发行债券时，一般以该国特色为债券命名，例如美国的扬基债券、澳大利亚的袋鼠债券、西班牙的斗牛士债券等。 熊猫债这一名称就是国际债券命名规则和我国特色相结合的产物。 2005年，国际金融公司、亚洲开发银行获准在我国银行间债券市场发行人民币债券，熊猫债市场由此拉开帷幕。熊猫债市场随着中国资本市场对外开 放和人民币国际化进程日益发展壮大。中国人民银行按照市场化、法治化、国际化原则，推动熊猫债券市场实现长足发展，助力中国金融业高水平对 外开放。 Q：熊猫债市场发行人有哪些？ Q：熊猫债为何深受国际资本青睐？ A: 经过多年发展，我国金融高水平开放不断深化，熊猫债市场创新日益活跃，制度安排更加国际化，资金使用更为灵活。截至目前，熊猫债累计发行 规模突破1万亿元 ...

据了解，上证地方国企信用债指数系列从上海证券交易所上市的公司债和企业债中，选取由地方国有企 业发行的符合条件的债券作为指数样本，以反映相应地方国企信用债的整体表现。该指数以2016年12月 30日为基日，以100.0点为基点。 从债项评级分布来看，上证AAA地方国企信用债指数持仓100.00%为"AAA"级债券。 金融界7月29日消息，上证指数低开高走，上证AAA地方国企信用债指数 (沪AAA地企债，950268)报 141.60点。 数据统计显示，上证AAA地方国企信用债指数近一个月上涨0.08%，近三个月上涨0.84%，年至今上涨 1.20%。 资料显示，上证地方国企信用债指数系列样本每月调整一次，定期调整生效日为每月首个交易日，定期 调整数据截止日为生效日前一交易日。遇临时调整时，若样本发生摘牌等事件，视情况自事件生效之日 起剔除出指数；样本发生其他事件，参照计算与维护细则处理。 来源：金融界 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the first half of 2025, China's bond market continued to strengthen its direct financing function, focusing on "improving quality and efficiency, serving the real economy." It launched the "Technology Board" of the bond market, increased targeted support for key areas such as technological innovation and private enterprises, strengthened requirements for issuance, trading, and valuation, promoted market standardization, and further advanced opening - up to promote the interconnection of domestic and foreign bond markets [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Areas: The "Technology Board" of the Bond Market Sets Sail, and Policy "Combinations" Inject New Development Momentum - **Policy for Technological Innovation**: Policies in the technological innovation field were intensively introduced. The "Technology Board" of the bond market was officially launched, supporting three types of entities to issue technological innovation bonds. The issuance scale of technological innovation bonds reached about 1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 86%. The risk - sharing tools and ETFs for technological innovation bonds made positive progress [4][6][11]. - **Support for Consumption and Sports Industries**: The bond market increased support for the consumption and sports industries. In the sports industry, relevant departments issued a guiding opinion to support sports enterprises in issuing bonds. In the consumption field, policies were introduced to support enterprises in service consumption areas to issue bonds [12][14]. 2. Weak Links: Policies Intensify to Release Positive Signals, and the Financing Situation of Private Enterprises Remains to Be Continuously Observed - **Policy Attention**: The central government deployed efforts to solve the financing problems of private enterprises. The "Private Economy Promotion Law" was officially implemented, emphasizing support for private enterprises to obtain direct financing through bonds [15][16][18]. - **Financing Situation**: Although the bond financing of private enterprises improved marginally, overall, it still faced constraints such as insufficient demand and high costs. The improvement of private enterprise bond financing requires time [21][22]. 3. Basic Systems: Adhere to the Main Line of Standardized System Construction and Promote the High - Quality Development of the Bond Market - **System Rule Optimization**: The bond market optimized rules for issuance, trading, and valuation. For example, it reduced bond trading and settlement fees, revised company bond review guidelines, and optimized bond valuation guidelines [25][26][27]. - **Risk Management**: It standardized debt - restructuring bond replacement business and improved the institutional framework of credit risk mitigation tools to enhance the flexibility of product creation [28][29]. 4. Opening - up: The Bond Connect Has Made Positive Progress, and Upgraded Measures May Accelerate the Opening - up Process - **Free - Trade Offshore Bonds**: There are expectations for the restart of free - trade offshore bonds, emphasizing the "two - ends - abroad" principle to support domestic enterprises' overseas financing and attract foreign investment [33]. - **Bond Connect Optimization**: The Bond Connect reached its eighth anniversary. The scope of "South - bound Connect" investors was expanded to non - banking institutions, and relevant mechanisms were optimized to promote the interconnection of domestic and foreign markets [34][37]. - **Bond Allocation Value**: China's bonds have good allocation value. Against the backdrop of Sino - US tariff frictions, they may attract more long - term allocation funds, and the bond market's opening - up level is expected to continue to deepen [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of offshore sustainable dim sum bonds by Mengniu Dairy has reignited market interest in the offshore RMB bond market, highlighting its significance in expanding financing channels for domestic and foreign enterprises and enhancing the international status of the RMB [1][3]. Dim Sum Bond Market Overview - As of July 28, over 700 dim sum bonds have been issued this year, with a total issuance scale exceeding 500 billion RMB, although both the number and scale have decreased compared to the same period last year [1][2]. - The dim sum bond market has seen a significant increase in issuance volume and scale since 2022, with 2023 projected to reach 1,468 bonds and a scale of 925.11 billion RMB, and 2024 expected to further increase to 2,062 bonds and 1,205.52 billion RMB [5]. Factors Driving Growth - The rapid expansion of the dim sum bond market is attributed to several factors, including the rising costs of issuing US dollar bonds due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, leading domestic issuers to shift towards dim sum bonds for financing [7]. - The tightening of domestic city investment bond approvals has also created new financing channels through dim sum bonds, while the declining risk-free interest rates in China have made dim sum bonds more attractive compared to US dollar bonds [7][9]. Impact on RMB Internationalization - Dim sum bonds not only provide diversified financing options for domestic and Hong Kong enterprises but also significantly enhance the international status and influence of the RMB [9][10]. - The main issuers of dim sum bonds include city investment companies and financial institutions, with a notable increase in issuance from city investment companies in recent years [9]. Investment Demand and Market Dynamics - There is a growing demand from domestic investors for high-yield assets, alongside increased international interest in RMB-denominated assets, making offshore RMB bonds appealing to both domestic and foreign investors [12][13]. - The potential for further expansion in the dim sum bond market is supported by the expectation of a weakening US dollar and the continued attractiveness of RMB assets, which may lead to lower financing costs in the offshore market [13].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments due to multiple factors, leading to a continuous rise in yields, with the 10-year treasury yield reaching 1.7325% and the 30-year yield at 1.9475%, both at year-high levels [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A notable change in market risk appetite is the core driver putting pressure on the bond market, with the stock market breaking key levels and the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3600 points, showing a weekly increase of 1.67% [2][3] - Commodity prices have surged, with lithium carbonate futures rising over 7% and polysilicon prices hitting new highs, which diminishes the relative attractiveness of bond assets [2][3] Group 2: Liquidity and Institutional Behavior - The liquidity situation has worsened since mid-July, with significant fluctuations in funding rates and the central bank's operations showing a net withdrawal of funds, leading to a spike in the 10-year treasury yield [2][4] - Institutional investors are accelerating withdrawals from the bond market, with redemption pressures on bond funds increasing significantly, and the net subscription index for public bond funds remaining negative since July 21, reaching a record single-day redemption of 29.2 on July 24 [4][5] Group 3: Future Market Expectations - There is a divergence in expectations regarding the future trajectory of the bond market, with some institutions cautious about the potential for further rate increases, while others believe yields are still at historical lows and may rise due to stable economic growth and improving inflation [5] - The current adjustment in the bond market is viewed as manageable, with the 10-year treasury yield rising approximately 7 basis points, which is still within a controllable range compared to historical adjustments [5]