Core Viewpoint - Understanding the trading rules and timeframes in the A-share market is crucial for investors to avoid pitfalls and seize opportunities, especially during the critical closing moments of trading [1][9]. Trading Time Rules - A-share trading is divided into four phases: 1. Pre-opening auction (9:15-9:25) where orders can be placed but not canceled after 9:20 [6]. 2. Continuous trading (9:30-11:30, 13:00-14:57) where prices fluctuate in real-time and orders can be placed or canceled freely [6]. 3. Closing auction (14:57-15:00) where orders can be placed but not canceled, with the final price determined by the weighted average of all valid orders before 15:00 [6]. Importance of Closing Auction - The last three minutes of trading are critical for observing market movements, with approximately 20% of intraday volatility occurring in this timeframe, often influenced by major players [3]. Case Studies - **Case 1: Closing Surge Trap**: A consumer stock saw a sudden surge of 4% in the last three minutes, misleading investors into thinking it was a positive signal, resulting in a loss of 8% the next day due to a sell-off by short-term traders [4]. - **Case 2: Closing Plunge Opportunity**: A new energy stock experienced significant selling pressure before the close, which was interpreted as a selling opportunity, leading to a successful exit before a subsequent drop [5]. Cautionary Points - Investors should be wary of "false fund flows" where large orders may be split to mislead retail investors, and should analyze data from multiple sources, including the龙虎榜 (Dragon and Tiger List) and price levels [8]. - Avoid "point-in-time orders" as broker systems may have different cut-off times, leading to potential order failures [8]. - Use limit orders instead of market orders during volatile closing periods to avoid unfavorable price discrepancies [8]. Strategies for Short-term Investors - **Volume-Price Coordination**: Look for stocks with a significant increase in volume (over 50% compared to the previous hour) and that are above the 5-day moving average, indicating a higher probability of price increase the next day [10]. - **Sector Linkage Effect**: Monitor sectors with notable closing gains and select stocks within those sectors that have not yet surged significantly [10]. - **Avoid High-Position Closing Stocks**: Be cautious of stocks that have risen over 20% in three consecutive days and show signs of volume stagnation at the close, as this may indicate selling by major players [10].

Investment Insights - The overall economic growth rate in Q3 2025 is expected to slow down, with a rising possibility of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year [2][11] - August retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with notable growth in furniture and home appliances [12][13] - The fixed asset investment has weakened for five consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.5% from January to August 2025 [8][9] - The import and export growth rates have shown a temporary decline, with total trade value increasing by 3.5% year-on-year in the first eight months [9][10] Fixed Income Market - The bond market is expected to perform well in the second half of the year, with a projected yield for 10-year government bonds between 1.6% and 1.8% [11] - The current yield for 10-year government bonds is around 1.8%, presenting a favorable cost-benefit ratio [11] New Consumption Sector - The retail sales of essential goods have shown steady growth, while discretionary spending in categories like jewelry and communication devices has increased significantly [12][13] - Online retail sales have accelerated, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6% in the first eight months of 2025 [7][12] Company Analysis: Fujida (835640.BJ) - In H1 2025, Fujida reported a revenue of 408 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit of 37.18 million yuan, up 11% year-on-year [22][23] - The company has seen a significant recovery in defense orders and is actively expanding into medical and low-altitude applications [22][24] - The sales of RF coaxial connectors have steadily increased, supported by a recovery in defense orders [23][24] - The company is focusing on strategic emerging industries and has made breakthroughs in medical and maritime sectors [24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Technology is still the main force, with certain extreme characteristics in the trading structure, and the volatility of recently over - rising technology blue - chips has increased significantly; there is still room for the revaluation of Chinese assets, and the persistency requires the support of macro - policies. Futures on stock indices should be bought on dips [4]. - The current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, the bottom line of stock indices is clear, and new technologies and new consumption are promoting the stabilization and recovery of economic expectations [6]. - It is recommended to focus on allocating technology - growth sectors with profit certainty, such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance, securities, and consumption [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices rebounded, and the ChiNext and STAR Market continued to strengthen. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.52%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.10%, and the STAR 50 Index soared 5.48%. Most of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices rose, with sectors such as electronics, real estate, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery rising significantly [16][20]. - As of September 12, 2025, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.03%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.58%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 5.31% [20]. 3.2 Liquidity - The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate (DR007) of inter - bank deposit - type financial institutions remained low, and the net MLF injection in July was 40 billion yuan. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond dropped to around 1.7% [21]. - In August, the total social financing increased less year - on - year. The new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 483 billion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock dropped to 8.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of last month, the first year - on - year decrease in the past 8 months. The main reasons were the year - on - year decrease in RMB loans to the real economy and the large - scale issuance of government bonds in August last year [21]. - The "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. In August, the narrow - sense money M1 was 11.23 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%, the highest since May 2002 [21]. 3.3 Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets increased slightly, and stock indices regained their upward momentum. The average daily trading volume of the two markets (MA5) reached around 2.5 trillion yuan, and the new account opening numbers in different months showed fluctuations [29]. - The one - month new account opening number was 1.57 million, the two - month new account opening number was 2.88 million, the three - month new account opening number was 3.06 million, the four - month new account opening number dropped to 1.92 million, the five - month new account opening number continued to drop to 1.555 million, the six - month new account opening number slightly rose to 1.6464 million, the seven - month new account opening number was 1.9636 million, and the eight - month new account opening number was 2.6503 million [29]. 3.4 Index Valuation - As of September 12, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.58, with a percentile of 3.68, and the latest PE of the entire market was 22.24, with a percentile of 86.31. In terms of major stock indices, the valuation percentiles were in the order of CSI 1000 < CSI 500 < SSE 50 < SSE 300 [37]. - The absolute valuation of indices was at a low level [36]. 3.5 Index Industry Weights (as of June 30, 2025) - In the SSE 50, the weights of banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry [46][47]. - In the SSE 300, the weights were relatively dispersed, and the top three weighted industries were banking, non - banking finance, and electronics [47]. - In the CSI 500, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance [47]. - In the CSI 1000, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [47]. 3.6 Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - The United States is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle. As of September 10, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September was nearly 100%, and the expected interest - rate cut within the year was 50 - 75 BP [52]. - In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set the economic growth target at 5%, the CPI increase at about 2%, implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, and a more active fiscal policy, and planned to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [53]. - At the State Council Information Office press conference on May 7, 2025, the deposit reserve ratio was lowered by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, a 500 - billion - yuan service consumption and elderly care re - loan was established, and measures were taken to support the entry of various medium - and long - term funds into the market [53].

国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————如何理解 8 月经济数据 袁方1张端怡2 2025 年 09 月 16 日 内容提要 8 月经济延续了 7 月的表现，总需求不足是当前经济的主要特征。投资、消 费、出口的全面减速意味着经济下行的压力趋于增加，经济体自发企稳的难度在 上升，未来经济的走向主要取决于稳增长政策的力度。实际增速回落、价格触底 抬升或许是未来一段时间里经济的状态，而名义增速的回升面临诸多不确定性。 考虑到政府债的发行高峰已经过去，未来社融的增速可能更多与信贷投放 的情况相关，这意味着年内社融的高点也已经出现，未来存在逐步回落的风险。 在美国非农数据超预期走弱以及通胀数据温和回升的背景下，市场降息预 期维持高位。当前市场预期 2025 年美联储降息次数约为 3 次，9 月降息 25BP 的 概率较高。考虑到年内减税政策与降息的落地或对美国经济形成额外支撑，我们 认为美股有望延续偏强表现。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 1宏观分析师，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2宏观分析师，zhangdy2@essence.com.cn，S ...

Group 1 - The market has entered a rotation and diffusion phase, which is expected to continue in the near future [1][2] - Investment effectiveness is improving as the market shifts its focus towards economic conditions and industry trends [1][2] - The report suggests five key areas for investment: Hong Kong internet stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, breakthroughs in new energy technology, new consumption, and cyclical industries driven by multiple catalysts [1][2] Group 2 - The report indicates that the market is looking for signs of economic improvement as it approaches the earnings season [1][2] - The sentiment towards innovative pharmaceuticals has fully digested, leading to a revaluation driven by business development and commercialization [1][2] - New consumption is highlighted as having high odds, with seasonal catalysts expected to enhance success rates [1][2]

近期美股屡创新高，核心动能在于市场对联储局减息的强烈预期；随著就业数据放缓与通胀持续接近目标，投资者普遍押注周三会议将松绑货币政策，并在 政策声明中暗示未来多轮利率下调，这将进一步释放流动性，提振风险资产需求。此外，美中双方于2025年9月14-15日在西班牙马德里举行会谈，就TikTok 问题达成基本框架共识，于周五中美元首将通电话。中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表李成钢强调，中方绝不会以牺牲原则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代 价，寻求达成任何协议。中方将依法依规开展技术出口审批，同时充分尊重企业意愿。 港股通周一录得净流入144亿港元，其中阿里巴巴(09988.HK)净流入最多，达52.8亿港元，其次是盈富基金(02800.HK)。另一方面，小米集团(01810.HK)录得 最大净流出，达7.2亿，其次是泡泡玛特(09992.HK)。 美联储降息预期驱动美股创新高，港股通周一净流入144亿 来源：凯基证券 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Expectations - Global inflation and tightening monetary policy have led to increased concerns about liquidity, putting pressure on risk assets such as stocks and bonds, indirectly affecting fund performance [3] - Domestic CPI data for March fell below expectations, raising doubts about the strength of economic recovery and leading to downward adjustments in profit expectations for certain industries [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Conflicts - Recent tensions in the Middle East and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict have driven up prices of commodities like oil, increasing global supply chain uncertainties and heightening investor risk aversion [5] Group 3: Industry and Policy Adjustments - Regulatory changes have intensified scrutiny on certain sectors, such as real estate and platform economy, causing significant declines in related sectors like Chinese concept stocks and real estate bonds, which in turn drag down the net value of related thematic funds [6] - Rumors of a "fund fee reform" could further compress management fee income, raising concerns about the industry's profit model [6] - High-performing sectors in Q1, such as technology and new energy, have experienced profit-taking, leading to a shift of funds towards defensive assets like consumer goods and utilities, putting short-term pressure on growth-oriented funds [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - A wave of redemptions triggered by net value declines has forced fund managers to sell holdings, exacerbating market downturns, particularly in small-cap stocks and less liquid bonds [8] - Since March, foreign capital has continuously reduced holdings in A-shares, with a cumulative net outflow exceeding 20 billion, negatively impacting the performance of blue-chip stocks and the overall market index [8] Group 5: Short-term Technical Factors - The end of the quarter has led to portfolio adjustments by institutions, amplifying market volatility [8] - The derivatives market has seen a chain reaction with expanded index futures discounts and soaring options volatility, intensifying market panic [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends, emphasizing the performance of growth versus value styles in investment, and highlights the importance of timing and strategy in achieving investment returns. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market opened with a slight increase but closed with minimal fluctuations, maintaining a rating of 4.2 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks showed slight gains while small-cap stocks declined [2] - Growth styles, such as those represented by the ChiNext board, experienced an increase, whereas value styles remained relatively weak [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - As growth styles have risen this year, valuations have gradually increased, prompting some fund managers to reduce their growth allocations and increase value style allocations [4] - The current trend of strong growth and weak value styles may be influenced by various factors [5] - Long-term investment strategies will continue to favor lower valuation styles for portfolio allocation [6] - Historical trends indicate that during last year's growth style decline, portfolios increased their growth style allocations, which is beneficial for long-term returns [7] Group 3: Investor Behavior - There is a notable disparity in returns among investors in the same asset class, influenced by their entry timing and purchase costs [10] - Investors entering during bull markets tend to have higher initial costs compared to those entering at market lows [15] - A significant portion of A-share accounts were opened during the major bull markets of 2007 and 2015, indicating a tendency for investors to enter the market during rising phases [18] - Strategies such as dollar-cost averaging during market downturns can help lower investment costs and lead to profitability without needing the market to return to previous highs [20][21] Group 4: Learning and Experience - The first round of investing through bear and bull markets is primarily about gaining experience, and investors should not overly focus on initial returns [28] - Historical market cycles provide valuable lessons, and understanding these cycles can help investors make informed decisions in future investments [30][33] - The article suggests that over the next 30 years, investors will likely experience multiple cycles of bull and bear markets, providing ample opportunities for undervalued purchases and overvalued sell-offs [38] Group 5: Product Features - The company has introduced an "automatic profit-taking" feature for its actively selected and index-enhanced portfolios, which will trigger profit-taking signals as the market moves out of undervaluation [40] - A live session is scheduled to discuss the financial performance of listed companies in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, focusing on profit recovery in the first two quarters of the year [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In August, China's economic performance was below expectations, with fixed - asset investment, social consumption, industrial added value, export, and service production index all showing less - than - expected growth, and the real estate market continuing to decline. To maintain rapid economic growth, domestic demand needs to continue to play a key role. The government will introduce policies to expand service consumption, promote private investment, and launch new policy - based financial tools [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Content Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 1.3% and the 1.6% in January - July. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 5.4% year - on - year, narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 2.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.3%. In August, manufacturing investment decreased by 1.3% year - on - year, and narrow infrastructure investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year [1][4]. Real Estate Market - From January to August, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 7.3%. In August, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month - on - month for the fifth consecutive month, and those in second - and third - tier cities also continued to decline. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 12.5% year - on - year, and the newly - started and completed floor areas also showed year - on - year declines [2][5][7]. Industrial Added Value - In August, the value - added of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.8%. From January to August, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing maintained rapid growth, with an 8 - month growth of 9.5% year - on - year. The product sales rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 96.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 percentage points [9]. Exports - In August, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.4% year - on - year, lower than the expected 5.9%. From January to August, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased significantly. Due to the low base in September last year, export growth is expected to be rapid in September, but may decline in the fourth quarter [2][10][11]. Social Consumption - In August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.8%. From January to August, it increased by 4.6% year - on - year. The growth rate of consumer goods related to the trade - in policy decreased, while the growth of improved consumption accelerated. The retail sales of the automobile category increased by 0.8% year - on - year [14][15]. Service Industry - In August, the national service industry production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year, lower than the 5.8% in July. From January to August, it increased by 5.9% year - on - year. Information transmission, software and information technology services, finance, and leasing and business services had faster growth rates [16]. Unemployment Rate - In August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year. The unemployment rate of migrant workers decreased slightly [16]. Policy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. On September 12, the State Council executive meeting deployed measures to promote private investment. New policy - based financial tools will be launched to support emerging industries and infrastructure projects [3][18].

四季度宏观政策有可能推出新的增量措施，核心是财政加力、 央行降息，以及更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。这将在很 大程度上对冲外需放缓，遏制经济下行势头，确保顺利实现全 年"5.0%左右"的经济增长目标。 作者：田进 封图：图虫创意 8月出口同比增长4.8%，单月出口已连续6个月正增长；社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%，增速 连续三个月下跌；前8个月全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长0.5%，增速较前7个月下滑1.1 个百分点。 9月15日，国家统计局公布了上述前八个月中国经济增长"成绩单"。数据发布当天的新闻发布会 上，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，总的来看，8月份经济运行总体平稳，高质量发展扎实推 进。但也要看到，外部环境复杂严峻，不确定因素较多，国内市场供强需弱，部分企业经营困难。 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群表示，8月多项宏观经济数据显示，市场引导的 需求收缩力度在进一步加大。为进一步扩大消费，接下来相关政策需要在扩大就业、增加居民收入 方面取得显著成效。"居民越不容易挣到钱，越倾向于预防性储蓄。" 展望后续中国经济增长走势，付凌晖表示，中国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变， ...