Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a neutral fundamental situation with a range - bound trend. Supply - side blast furnace profits are stable, electric furnace profits are weakening, and short - term production may continue to increase. Demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is seasonally weakening, and inventory will continue to accumulate [3]. - The iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term, with seasonal inventory accumulation. However, due to the support from the steel market and the expected restocking by steel mills, the downside price space is limited [23]. - The coking coal market shows a pattern of "strong spot, weak futures", and the basis is at a high level. Short - term spot prices may face回调 pressure, and medium - to - long - term prices may face significant downward pressure under certain conditions [33]. - The ferroalloy market is in a range - bound pattern between the cost line and the previous pressure level. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are slightly better than those of silicomanganese [50]. - The soda ash market has an increasing excess supply expectation with new capacity coming on - stream. Although exports are high, the high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price [64]. - The glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is difficult to have a trend - based movement. The high inventory of the mid - stream needs to be digested, and the spot market is under pressure [87]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: - Rebar: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3200, 3123, and 3169 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3326, 3280, and 3301 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Spot prices: On January 28, 2026, the rebar summary price in China was 3313 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [9][12]. - **Spread Data**: - Rebar spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 spreads were 77, - 46, and - 31 respectively [4]. - Hot - rolled coil spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 spreads were 46, - 21, and - 25 respectively [4]. - Other spreads: The roll - rebar spread, basis, and other spreads also have corresponding values and changes [9][12][17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: - Futures prices: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 752.5, 783, and 764.5 yuan/ton respectively [24]. - Spot prices: On January 28, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 793 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: - On January 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 228.1 thousand tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 310.73 thousand tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 16766.53 thousand tons [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: - Coking coal spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads were - 178, - 80, and 258 respectively [36]. - Coke spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads were - 91.5, - 71, and 162.5 respectively [36]. - Other data: The basis, coking profit, and other indicators also have corresponding values and changes [36]. - **Spot Prices**: - On January 28, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1640 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton [39]. Ferroalloy - **Ferrosilicon Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the basis in Ningxia was - 32 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [51]. - **Silicomanganese Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 188 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton [52]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1198, 1259, and 1295 yuan/ton respectively [65]. - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 61, - 36, and 97 respectively [65]. - **Spot Prices**: - On January 28, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton [65]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1067, 1173, and 1227 yuan/ton respectively [88]. - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 106, - 54, and 160 respectively [88]. - **Sales and Production Data**: - On January 27, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 122%, and in Hubei was 138% [89].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and suspension of tapping, and overseas raw material prices are likely to rise, strengthening cost support. Demand is weak, with slow domestic sales and high inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are strong. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. PP's supply pressure is relieved due to maintenance, while PE's standard product pressure increases. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of marginal device maintenance [2]. LPG - The price is affected by factors such as inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates. The downstream PDH operating rate has decreased significantly, and the market situation needs to be further observed [3]. Urea - The supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term, with the main contract of urea focusing on the range of 1,760 - 1,800 [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and weak demand. PVC is expected to have a downward adjustment in the market, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Both glass and soda ash are expected to have a weakly volatile market. Soda ash is affected by inventory and demand, while glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the pre - holiday off - season [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - Pure benzene's price may be under pressure at high levels due to factors such as increased import expectations. Styrene's supply - demand is expected to weaken, and its price is also expected to be under pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply - side factors support the rise in oil prices. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area is being depleted, but high production restricts the rebound space. The port inventory is slightly increasing, and the demand for MTO is weak [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX, PTA, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand and seasonality. PX and PTA are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be bullish in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol has a pattern of weak near - term and strong far - term supply - demand [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned full - latex, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. have changed to varying degrees, and the basis has also fluctuated [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts have changed, such as the 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries' production in November has changed, and indicators such as tire production, export volume, and import volume in December have also changed [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of bonded areas and factory warehouses has changed, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in Qingdao have also changed [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, PP2605, etc. have decreased, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries have changed, and the inventory of enterprises and society has decreased [2]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, etc. have decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis have changed [3]. - **Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio has increased, port inventory has decreased, and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed [3]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The prices of urea futures contracts have fluctuated, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production has increased, inventory has decreased, and demand is weak [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda spot and futures have decreased to varying degrees [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries have changed, and inventory has increased [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash spot and futures have decreased, and the basis has changed [7]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed, and real - estate data has also changed [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, etc. have increased, and the spreads between different products have changed [8]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have decreased, and the spreads and cash flows have changed [8]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports has increased, and the operating rates of related industries have changed [8]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have changed, and the spreads between different products and contracts have also changed [10]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, etc. have increased, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil in different regions have changed [10]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MA2605, MA2609, etc. have decreased, and the spreads and basis have changed [14]. - **Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory have changed, and upstream - downstream operating rates have also changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. have changed [16]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of POY, FDY, etc. have changed [16]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [16]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [16]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and inventory and operating rates have also changed [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since December 2025, the prices of Chinese chemical products have bottomed out and rebounded, with a trend reversal. As of January 26, 2026, the Chinese chemical product price index rose to 4084, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The year - on - year decline in PPI of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing industries in December has narrowed, indicating that the industry's price pressure is continuously easing [1]. - The newly revised "Regulations for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China" was announced on the 27th and will come into effect on May 15. Encouraging innovation is a prominent feature of this revision [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Chemical**: The price of PTA continues to rise [1]. - **Energy**: The prices of international crude oil and liquefied natural gas have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Midstream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [2]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants continues at a low level [2]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [2]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [2]. 3.4 Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On January 27, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and pork increased year - on - year by 0.19%, 5.81%, 2.46%, 0.64%, and 0.92% respectively [36]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year by 0.85%, 1.76%, 0.76%, and 2.34% respectively, while the spot price of aluminum decreased by 0.18% [36]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot price of iron ore increased year - on - year by 1.13%, while the spot prices of rebar and wire decreased by 0.35% and 1.15% respectively [36]. - **Non - metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of glass and natural rubber increased year - on - year by 1.56% and 2.79% respectively, and the China Plastic City price index increased by 0.46% [36]. - **Energy**: On January 27, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas increased year - on - year by 2.17%, 1.58%, and 3.63% respectively, while the coal price decreased by 0.12% [36]. - **Chemical**: On January 27, the spot prices of PTA and polyethylene increased year - on - year by about 5.87% and 2.18% respectively, while the spot prices of urea and soda ash decreased by 0.43% and 0.12% respectively [36]. - **Real Estate**: On January 27, the national cement price index and building materials composite index decreased year - on - year by 0.75% and 0.46% respectively, and the national concrete price index remained unchanged [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has weakened, and prices are fluctuating downward. Glass and soda ash continue to fluctuate due to insufficient downstream demand, while ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are also in a state of oscillatory operation with no prominent supply - demand contradictions [1][3] - The strategies for glass and silicomanganese are to expect an oscillatory trend, and for soda ash, it is an oscillatory and weakening trend, while for silicon - iron, it is also an oscillatory trend [2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The glass 2605 contract showed a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday, and some manufacturers slightly raised prices with a fair trading atmosphere. The soda ash 2605 contract mainly oscillated, and downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Glass fundamentals are still weak. With the Spring Festival approaching, production line cold - repairs continue, and there are still expectations of production suspension. Recently, shipments have improved, and inventory pressure on the supply side has eased. Downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation during the holiday. For soda ash, 1719 warehouse receipts were recorded yesterday. As the delivery month approaches, a sharp increase in single - day warehouse receipts suppresses prices. The latest data shows an increase in inventory, weak demand, and deepening supply - demand contradictions. Considering the warehouse - receipt game in the delivery month, soda ash prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory operation [1] - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese main contract showed a weakening trend during the day with a large increase in positions. The alloy cost has fair support, with the 6517 northern market price ranging from 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton and the southern market price from 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton. An eastern steel mill set the silicomanganese tender price at 5830 yuan/ton today, with a tender quantity of 4000 tons. The ferrosilicon futures continued to oscillate weakly yesterday, the ferrosilicon market had a slight adjustment, and the market sentiment was rather flat. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 5750 - 5950 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities being put into operation, so the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. There is an expectation of an increase in pig iron production in the future, and combined with the expectation of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, the demand for silicomanganese is expected to improve. The recent South African tariff policy has caused disturbances, and it may increase the manganese ore cost in the future. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes. For ferrosilicon, the fundamental contradictions are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of steel mills' production and winter stockpiling, the demand for ferrosilicon is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected market sentiment, but considering that the domestic electricity price is expected to decline further next year and the overall ferrosilicon production capacity is in surplus, the price increase is restricted. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction of ferrosilicon and the electricity price policy in production areas [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [4]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周二油价大幅收涨，其中WTI 3月合约收盘上涨1.76美元至62.39美元/桶，涨幅2.90%。布伦特3月合约收 盘上涨1.98美元至67.57美元/桶，涨幅3.02%。SC2603以456元/桶收盘，上涨6.9元/桶，涨幅为1.54%。在 美国，严寒天气扰乱了墨西哥湾沿岸多家炼油厂以及少量国内产出，此前一场冬季风暴重创美国产油 区，导致上周末美国墨西哥湾沿岸原油出口一度降至零，令生产商措手不及。OPEC+计划在本周末开 会，评估对下个月产量政策的决定，预计将维持产量不变的计划。一位代表表示，目前尚无迹象显示需 要对成员国委内瑞拉和伊朗的相关事态作出回应。消息称，由雪佛龙公司主导的哈萨克斯坦Tengiz油田 预计到2月7日产量只能恢复到不到一半，产量进一步恢复仍存在不确定性。在期权市场，WTI期货的看 涨偏斜已维持近两周，持续时间为2024年10月份以来最长。在供应端收缩预期的背景下，油价表现为震 荡偏强。短期需持续关注美国寒潮对供应端形成的冲击，以及对油价的影 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current black building materials market is under real - world pressure, with the futures market running weakly. The slow resumption of steel mills, high iron ore shipments and inventories, and the weakening support of coal - coke restocking all contribute to the weak market. In the off - season, the steel inventory accumulation pressure is increasing, the cost support is loosening, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress prices. Although there is downward pressure on the short - term futures market, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Iron ore arrivals have decreased, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but inventory pressure is still increasing. There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side due to weather. Scrap steel supply has rebounded, and daily consumption is expected to decline [2] - **Demand**: Before the festival, restocking supports ore prices, but the actual supply - demand situation on both sides remains to be verified. Scrap steel consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and there are still expectations of steel mill复产 and winter restocking demand. The contradiction in the supply - demand structure is limited, and spot price increases are still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [2] - **Coking Coal**: The demand side is still in the process of winter restocking, and the supply side is expected to see a decline in coal mine production near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has priced in the winter restocking, the positive driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is under pressure, but the room for further decline is limited, and it is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions. The poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise [3] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support has shifted downwards, and the futures market is running weakly. The spot market trading is generally weak, the steel mill profitability rate is improving, the iron water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the demand is seasonally weak. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the short - term futures market still has downward pressure, but the downward space is limited [10] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and port trading has decreased month - on - month. Overseas mine shipments have increased, arrivals have weakened, and the supply side is affected by weather. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. Port and steel mill inventories are increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Scrap Steel**: This week's arrivals have decreased, and the spot price has risen slightly. Supply has declined slightly, demand is expected to decrease, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [12] - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the cost support is strong. The steel mills are resistant to price increases, and the environmental protection disturbances are frequent. The demand side has a slight increase in iron water output, and the inventory is increasing. Spot price increases are still expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12][14] - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is stable, and the supply is stable with high imports. The demand side is in the process of winter restocking, and the inventory is gradually reaching the target. After the futures market has priced in the restocking, the positive driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [15] - **Glass**: The spot price has risen month - on - month, and the futures market oscillates. The supply side has limited losses, and there is unlikely to be a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand side is weak, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, prices will be weakly oscillating; otherwise, prices will rise [16] - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased month - on - month, and the spot contradictions are limited. The supply side has a slight increase in daily output, the demand side has a weakening trend, and the supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is weakly sorted. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The trading atmosphere is poor, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is weak, and the trading activity suppresses the upward space. It is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The supply - side has stable blast furnace profits and rising disk profits, so steel mills may continue to increase production with a low probability of significant reduction. The demand - side is affected by winter cold, with seasonal weakening of rebar demand and inventory accumulation, and hot - rolled coil demand may slow down and turn to inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices will fluctuate within a range [3]. - Iron Ore: Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the downside is supported by the healthy fundamentals of steel, good profits of steel mills, and inventory replenishment expectations. Additionally, attention should be paid to the impact of rainy seasons in Australia and Brazil on shipments. It is expected that the price decline space is limited [23]. - Coal and Coke: Coking coal is in a pattern of "strong spot, weak disk" with a high basis. Without strong policy expectations to boost the disk, as winter storage enters the second half, the demand sustainability is limited, and the spot price of coking coal may face downward pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, if there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic supply recovery" and "weakening macro - sentiment", the prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [36]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. The upper limit of silicon - manganese is restricted by high inventory, and the fundamentals of silicon - iron are slightly better than those of silicon - manganese. In the short term, ferroalloys will fluctuate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [52]. - Soda Ash: The short - term commodity sentiment is warming up, which may drive some low - valued varieties. If the disk rises, there is some inventory replenishment space for middle and downstream players, but the demand is average with limited elasticity. In terms of fundamentals, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the oversupply expectation is intensifying. The export of soda ash remains high, which alleviates the domestic pressure to some extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [66]. - Glass: Although the daily melting of float glass has dropped to a certain low level, the demand reality and expectation are also weak. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines for cold - repair and ignition, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. Currently, the high inventory of the middle reaches of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists [90]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3199 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan from January 26), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3330 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The basis and month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4][10][12]. - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day. For example, 01 rebar/01 iron ore was 4, and 01 rebar/01 coke was 2 [20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 757 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan from January 26). The basis also increased, and the prices of various iron ore varieties such as Rizhao PB powder also rose [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the 45 - port desilting volume decreased, the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased, the 45 - port inventory and 247 - steel mill inventory increased, and the available days of 247 steel mills also increased [30]. Coal and Coke - **Price Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was - 178 (down 12.5 from January 26). The disk coking profit increased, and the ratios such as the main ore - coke ratio also changed [39]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions remained relatively stable on January 27, 2026, with some slight changes in the import profit of different types of coal [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - Iron**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the basis of silicon - iron in Ningxia increased, the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke and动力煤 decreased slightly, and the number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased [53]. - **Silicon - Manganese**: On January 27, 2026, the basis of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia increased, the month - spreads changed slightly, the spot prices in various regions remained stable, and the prices of some manganese ores decreased slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts increased slightly [54][56]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding changes [67]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the overall inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, restricting the price [66]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1066 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis changed [91]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the period from January 17 - 23, 2026 [92].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in building materials, driven by supply-demand improvements and cost reductions. Key areas of focus include electronic fabrics, waterproof materials, and the glass and cement sectors [4][6][7] - The "dual carbon" policy presents new opportunities for the building materials industry, particularly for companies with lower energy consumption and better carbon management [6][7] Summary by Sections Price Trends and Supply-Demand Dynamics - Cement shipments are experiencing seasonal declines, while glass inventories have decreased month-on-month. The report anticipates a recovery in profitability due to supply-demand improvements and cost reductions [2][4] - The report identifies three main lines for 2026: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain, focusing on optimizing demand and clearing supply [7] Sector-Specific Insights - **Glass**: The current daily melting capacity is approximately 150,000 tons, with expectations for a reduction to 145,000 tons to achieve supply-demand balance. Companies like Xinyi Glass and Pilkington are highlighted as key players [5][6] - **Cement**: Profitability is at a clear bottom, with supply-demand pressures expected to persist in 2026. Companies such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement are noted for their market positions [5][6] - **Waterproof Materials**: The report highlights a significant exit of supply in the waterproof and coating sectors, benefiting from a year-on-year decline in asphalt prices. Companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Keshun are recommended [4][6] Future Outlook - The report projects a shift in consumer demand towards renovation, with expectations that the share of renovation demand will rise from 50% to nearly 70% by 2030. This change is expected to drive the industry back to historical high levels of demand [7] - The African market is identified as an undervalued growth area, with companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement poised to benefit from population and urbanization trends [7] - The AI chain focuses on the upgrade of special electronic fabrics, with companies like Zhongcai Technology highlighted for their comprehensive product offerings and low valuations [7]

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-27 供需矛盾有限，盘面冲高回落 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪修复，玻碱震荡运行 市场分析 市场分析 玻璃：昨日玻璃主力合约呈现震荡反弹态势。现货方面，市场报价持稳，期现市场交投氛围较之前有所回暖。 供需和逻辑：短期市场情绪修复，前期超跌后存在反弹需求。供应端冷修延续，部分地区厂家出货略有好转，库 存压力边际缓解，浮法玻仍以刚需采购为主。 纯碱：昨日纯碱主力合约震荡反弹走势。现货方面，市场报价随盘面高位震荡，下游观望为主，期现交易较之前 有所好转。 供需与逻辑：开工率有所下降，但是库存有所上升，春节小长假在即，浮法玻璃需求低迷，补库较弱，基本面矛 盾加深。短期来看，受益于市场情绪修复，投机需求上升，预计价格仍将维持震荡。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：观望情绪浓厚，价格震荡运行 硅锰方面：昨日锰硅主力合约日内前弱运行，收盘结算价微跌，周初整体处于震荡运行状态。现货方面：合金成 本支撑尚可，6517北方市场价格5570-5680元/吨，南方市场价格5700-5750 ...

黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 黑色建材日报 2026-01-27 【策略观点】 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3143 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.031%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 1204 吨。主力合约持仓量为 173.09 万手，环比减少 10906 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3302 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.09%）。 当日注册仓单 179126 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 ...