Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report doesn't provide a clear industry investment rating [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. The comprehensive inventory of coking coal and coke continues to rise and is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. With the end of pre - holiday restocking by downstream steel mills and approaching the Spring Festival holiday, there is an expectation of reduced supply. Coking is in continuous loss, and coking enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. There are still policy expectations at the macro level. Overall, coke will mainly fluctuate widely, continue to rebound in the short term, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted, while paying attention to the pressure near the previous high [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Content 1. Coke Inventory - As of January 30, the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 1012.35 tons, reaching a 7 - and - a - half - month high with a year - on - year decline of 3.44% [1] 2. Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 55 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke turned positive to 2 yuan/ton, that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 0 yuan/ton, that of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 41 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 92 yuan/ton [1] 3. Downstream Demand - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.32% to 79% week - on - week and 1.02% year - on - year. The profitability rate decreased by 1.3% to 39.39% week - on - week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 85.47%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.12 tons to 227.98 tons week - on - week [1] 4. Upstream Coking Coal - As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an expectation of reduced supply. The coking coal inventory of mines decreased by 7.2 tons to 267.2 tons; the comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 46 tons to 2864.34 tons week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 8.57% [1] 5. News - Due to the Indonesian government's proposed large - scale production cut plan, Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the steel inventory of key enterprises in late January was 1471 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.8% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the glass industry is oscillating with a slight upward bias [1] Core View - The core contradiction in the glass market lies in the game between the "expectation of supply contraction" (cold repair + policy) and "weak actual demand" (sluggish real estate + seasonal off - peak). High inventory is the biggest pressure on the market rebound. Although there are some factors supporting the market sentiment, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved, and the short - term price rebound may be limited. It is advisable to adopt an oscillating with a slight upward bias approach in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass futures main contract opened low and moved lower, weakening during the session. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands have an upward - opening triple track, indicating a short - term oscillating with a slight upward bias signal. Resistance is near the upper Bollinger Band, and support is near the 30 - day moving average. Trading volume decreased by 762,000 lots compared to yesterday, and open interest decreased by 78,483 lots. The intraday high was 1109, the low was 1078, and the closing price was 1088, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.36% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: In North China, the market is stable with acceptable overall shipments; in East China, the purchasing sentiment is weak, and manufacturers' quotes are temporarily stable; in Central China, middle - and downstream buyers are rational, and transactions are mediocre; in South China, most downstream enterprises are on holiday except for a few processing plants rushing orders, and the purchasing sentiment has declined [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China is 1020, and the basis is - 68 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of February 5th, the total weekly output of float glass was 1.0558 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.16%. The average operating rate was 71.86%, unchanged week - on - week; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.61%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.09%. Two production lines of Dongtai Zhongbo stopped production today, each with a designed capacity of 600 tons [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million weight boxes, with a week - on - week increase of 500,000 weight boxes or 0.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.77%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous period [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 6.35 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 31.9% and a year - on - year increase of 323.3%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market atmosphere has significantly weakened, and orders from deep - processing plants in all regions have declined [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month; net exports were 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared to the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas - fired float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.57 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas - fired float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.39 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke - fired float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.85 yuan/ton [3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction in the glass market is the game between supply contraction expectations and weak actual demand. High inventory restricts the market rebound. Although there are some positive factors supporting the market sentiment, the supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and the short - term price rebound may be limited. It is recommended to take an oscillating with a slight upward bias approach. Future attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's consistent expectation of a bumper harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened, but due to uncertainties in post - holiday soybean auctions and arrivals, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [2]. - The introduction of the US 45Z clean fuel production tax credit mechanism is reshaping the policy environment and profit logic of soybean biodiesel. It is a "differentiated reshaping" rather than an overall benefit. The market is in a relatively strong oscillation pattern with limited downside and weak upward drive [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - Trump posted on "Truth Social" that China will increase this year's soybean procurement to 20 million tons and has promised to purchase 25 million tons next year. As of the end of January, China has bought about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the agreement made at the end of October last year [2]. - Affected by this news, US soybeans rose significantly to around 1100 cents, but the Brazilian soybean premium dropped by 15 - 25 cents, restricting the increase of imported soybeans [2]. - Institutions have significantly raised the production estimate for Brazil's 2025/26 season, and the harvest progress is better than last year. Although there are still some uncertainties in local weather, the market's consistent expectation of a bumper harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened [2]. Edible Oils - The US Treasury Department released the proposed 45Z rules on Tuesday, with the official release date of the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit rules set for February 4. The rules implement changes in "A Grand and Beautiful Act", including extending the tax credit until 2029, canceling the special credit rate for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), canceling the indirect land - use change penalty, and restricting eligibility to raw materials sourced from the US, Canada, and New Mexico [2]. - The 45Z policy is reshaping the policy environment and profit logic of soybean biodiesel. Low - carbon, large - scale, and traceable soybean biodiesel still has development space, while the traditional high - CI model will face greater profit pressure [3]. - Although the US 45Z policy strongly supports US soybean oil, its restrictions on raw material imports make it difficult for the benefits to spread to the domestic market. The market is in a relatively strong oscillation pattern with limited downside and weak upward drive [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The improvement in macro and commodity sentiment drove up the futures prices. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index declined, and the cancellation of full tax - rebates for photovoltaic products may lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume. China's foreign trade improved significantly in December, and it is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in 2026. Spot freight rates show a trend of price adjustment among shipping companies. Geopolitically, there are risks in the resumption of the Red Sea Canal route. The market is optimistic about the economic recovery in the euro - zone. The current freight market is greatly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to exercise caution [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price is 47.1, up; EC sub - main contract closing price is 1268.2, up 53.9. The spread between EC2604 - EC2606 is - 13.6, down; the spread between EC2604 - EC2608 is - 300, down 5.3. EC contract basis is - 20.6, down. EC main contract open interest is 34661, up 1900 [1] Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) is 1792.14, down 67.17; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) is 1101.40, down 192.92. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) is down 141.11; CCFI (composite index) (weekly) is down 33.16; CCFI (European line) (weekly) is 1574.69, down 13.50. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 1955, up 73; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1685, up 39. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 0, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 20995, down 996 [1] Industry News - Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi clarified the official position of Iran's talks with the US in Oman. The talks will be held in Muscat on February 6. The US previously rejected Iran's proposal to change the meeting location. The situation has caused concerns in the Middle East. US Senate Banking Committee Democrats asked to postpone the nomination process of Kevin Warsh until the criminal investigation of current Fed Chairman Powell is over, but Chairman Tim Scott said the probability of Warsh's nomination being confirmed is 100%. Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue and asking the US to handle arms sales to Taiwan carefully [1] Key Points of Attention - Key data to be released on February 6 include Germany's seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate in December, the UK's Halifax seasonally - adjusted house price index monthly rate in January, France's trade balance in December, the US 1 - year inflation rate expectation preliminary value in February, and the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value in February [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On February 5th, the bean market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, while the oil market maintained a volatile trend. Specifically, the prices of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and rapeseed meal were under pressure, with the price of rapeseed meal accompanied by an increase of 19,000 lots in positions. The prices of soybean meal were slightly stronger, also under pressure. The oil prices were in a volatile state, with soybean oil and palm oil prices under pressure and accompanied by a reduction of 13,000 lots in positions, and the price of rapeseed oil was relatively weak [5]. - The bean market is in a complex pattern with both bullish and bearish factors. The expectation of China's soybean purchases from the US and the implementation of the US biodiesel tax credit policy have boosted the demand for US soybean oil, supporting the price of US soybeans. However, the abundant global soybean supply is the core factor suppressing prices. The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the fast harvesting progress mean a high volume of imported soybeans will arrive in the coming months. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories at ports and oil mills are nearly doubled year - on - year and at a historical high, while the downstream aquaculture industry is generally in the red and the pre - Spring Festival stocking is almost over, resulting in weak demand. In the short term, the bean market will maintain a range - bound operation [6]. - The oil market is also in a volatile pattern with both bullish and bearish factors. The core driving force lies in the game between supply expectations and policy prospects. China's increased purchase of Canadian rapeseed strengthens the expectation of a loose rapeseed oil supply, and the expected significant reduction of rapeseed import tariffs after the easing of China - Canada relations will put long - term pressure on the rapeseed oil supply. In the soybean oil market, the specific details and blending targets of the US biofuel policy are still key variables, and the demand expectation for soybean oil is still supported, showing relatively resistant short - term performance. Malaysian palm oil is in the production - reduction season, but the absolute inventory level is still high, and it will enter the production - increase cycle later. The expected decline of Malaysian palm oil inventory in the MPOB data to be released next week may provide short - term support. The domestic pre - Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end, the demand support is weakening, and the near - term inventory pressure in the oil market still exists [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Brazilian Soybean Exports - According to Safras & Mercado, the shipping plan of Brazilian ports shows that the soybean export volume in February 2026 is expected to be 11.42 million tons, higher than 2.444 million tons in January and 9.586 million tons in February last year. Based on the latest shipping plan, the estimated export volume in March 2026 is 396,000 tons. The total export volume from January to February 2026 is estimated to be 14.261 million tons, higher than 7.497 million tons in the same period of 2025 [9]. 3.1.2 Global Weather Conditions - In the US, the temperature in the plains will be higher than normal in the next two weeks, with more rainfall in the northern plains and the northwest and drier in other areas. In South America, the corn and soybean planting areas in the northern and central Pampas will be cool and rainy, and the central region of Brazil is expected to have mild weather, which may be beneficial to crop growth. In Europe, the temperature in central and western Europe will be higher than normal in the next 10 days, with moderate to heavy rain expected. In Asia, the temperature in Southeast Asia and India is expected to be close to or slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days, while the temperature in China and Japan will be higher. Most parts of Asia will be dry, except for possible short - term rainfall in Southeast Asia and eastern China. In Africa, rainfall may delay the cocoa harvest in southern West Africa [10]. 3.1.3 China - US Soybean Trade - US President Trump said that he had a "very positive" phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade and security issues. Chinese leaders agreed to increase the purchase volume of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. After the news was announced, Chicago soybean futures rose sharply. However, analysts believe that China may turn to purchase cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the next few months as Brazilian soybeans are harvested and put on the market [11]. 3.1.4 Argentine Weather - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that from February 5th to 11th, 2026, the Argentine agricultural region will continue to have high temperatures with uneven rainfall. Some areas will have abundant rainfall, but large areas will be short of water. The temperature will be moderate at the beginning of the forecast period, but the tropical wind will return strongly, causing the temperature in the northern and central agricultural regions to be higher than normal, but it will not extend southward. The rainfall distribution will be extremely uneven, with abundant rainfall in the western part of the agricultural region and scarce rainfall in most other agricultural regions [12]. 3.1.5 Brazilian Paraná State Soybean Harvest - The rural economic department of Brazil's Paraná state reported that as of now, the soybean harvest in the 2025/26 season in the state has reached 14%, 9 percentage points higher than a week ago but still lower than the levels of the past two years. DERAL raised the soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season in Paraná state to 22.04 million tons, a 4% increase from last year [13]. 3.1.6 US Biofuel Policy - The US Treasury Department released the proposed detailed guidelines for the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit. This policy has received different responses in the industry. For the US ethanol and biodiesel industries, the release of the guidelines marks a transition from "vague expectation" to the "operational stage." However, there are still some unresolved technical problems, such as the unreleased revised 45Z GREET model, which will directly determine the monetary value of credit额度 [14][15]. 3.2 Price and Profit Data 3.2.1 Commodity Prices - The table shows the prices and price changes of various soybean - related products. For example, the price of imported second - grade soybeans in Dalian is 3,950 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The average price of soybeans is 4,072 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,180 yuan/ton, with an average price of 9,206 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang is 9,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton, and the average price is 10,046 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [16]. 3.2.2 Oil Mill Pressing Profits - The table shows the pressing profits of oil mills in different regions. For example, the pressing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang is - 7.60 yuan, while the pressing profit of imported soybeans in Dalian is 16.10 yuan [17]. 3.3 Related Charts - The report mentions several related charts, including soybean port inventory, soybean盘面pressing profit, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but no specific chart data is provided [18][20][22][24][26][28]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来自公众号：懒人财知道 关注免费领取全球研报特权 白银又下跌，真相曝光：不是"IRS严打"，而是一场被反复收割的恐慌谣言 近期，白银市场出现罕见剧烈波动，盘中一度暴跌，引发大量恐慌性抛售。而在交易社区，一则"2月15 日美国国税局（IRS）将对白银持有者展开严厉打击"的消息迅速扩散，被不少投资者视为"最后逃命信 号"。 白银持有合法性变化 强制登记 针对白银投资者的专项清查 换句话说，这是一个"文书截止日被包装成政策打击日"的典型案例。 但真相，恰恰相反。 所谓"2月15日严打"，其实是一个被炒了很多年的旧谣言 多家美国权威贵金属交易商与税务专业人士已明确澄清： 2月15日并不是任何针对白银的新政策节点，更不是执法行动的开始。 这个日期的来源，仅仅是美国国税局长期存在的一个行政申报时间窗口，主要涉及部分信息申报表（如 1099-B），而且在2026年实际截止日是2月17日，只是因为周末顺延。 它不涉及： 三个被刻意混淆的概念，制造了市场恐慌 这轮谣言之所以杀伤力极强，是因为很多人把三套完全不同的税务体系混为一谈： 第一，资本利得税 卖出白银 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hongye Futures (03678.HK) has received a notification from its shareholder Jiangsu Hongsu Industrial Co., Ltd. regarding the completion of the judicial enforcement plan, which involves the forced reduction of shares due to legal actions [1] Group 1: Share Reduction Details - From November 7, 2025, to February 4, 2026, Jiangsu Hongsu plans to reduce its holdings by a total of 18,134,899 shares, which represents approximately 1.7995% of the company's total share capital [1] - The reduction will occur through two methods: 10,077,777 shares (about 1%) via centralized bidding and 8,057,122 shares (approximately 0.7995%) through block trading [1] - As of the announcement date, Jiangsu Hongsu has already executed the reduction of 18,134,522 shares, which also accounts for 1.7995% of the current total share capital [1] Group 2: Remaining Shares - There are 377 shares remaining from the judicial enforcement plan that have not yet been executed [1]

美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为9.9%，维持利率不变的概率为90.1%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基 点的概率为23.2%，维持利率不变的概率为75.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.6%。到6月累计降息25 个基点的概率为46.0%。 【机构观点】 昨日金银市场先扬后抑，美国晚间公布的ADP小非农就业数据表现疲软，一度令美元承压，金银价格相 应持续震荡走高。但美股开盘后，由于AMD未来业绩指引不及预期，引发市场担忧，连带拖累其他科 技股及整个纳斯达克指数表现，金银亦受到拖累，而今晨AMD、NVDA等科技股在盘后均再度转为上 涨，市场情绪有所好转。总得来说，当前金银市场整体仍处于急速下挫后的反弹与修复阶段，伦敦金和 银的价格分别反弹至50%和61.8%（以近期巨震的区间计算）的关键斐波那契回撤压力位附近，同样也 是重要整数关口附近。从中长期而言，我们认为金银整体的宏观利好环境仍在，但短期仍需保持谨慎， 尤其是国内临近春节，市场流动性可能缓慢下降，操作上可仍以风险控制为重。 【黄金期货行情表现】 2月5日，沪金主力暂报1105.76元/克，跌幅1.35%，今日沪金主力开盘价1131.84元/克，截至目前最 ...

上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周四（2月5日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计104052千克，今日仓单 较上一日增加1020千克。 沪金主力盘内大幅回调，周四（2月5日）黄金期货开盘价1131.84元/克，截至目前最高1139.80元/克，最 低1077.02元/克。截止发稿报1105.76元/克，跌幅1.35%，成交量为631419手，持仓为172503手，日持仓 减少6041手。 美国1月"小非农"ADP就业人数不及预期。ADP研究周三数据显示，私营部门1月就业仅增加2.2万个岗 位，低于市场预期，前一个月数据被下修。美国劳工统计局：劳工部2月4日恢复正常全面运作，非农将 于2月11日发布，CPI数据改至2月13日公布。 美国政府：美国宣布与日本、墨西哥及欧盟合作，共同开发关键矿产资源。 | 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 104052 | 0 | ...

1、央行公告称，2月5日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1185亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作 利率1.40%，投标量1185亿元，中标量1185亿元。同时，以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位 中标方式开展了3000亿元14天期逆回购操作。Wind数据显示，当日3540亿元逆回购到期， 据此计算，单日净投放645亿元。 2、财政部、海关总署、税务总局联合印发《关于海南自由贸易港岛内居民消费的进境商品" 零关税"政策的通知》，自公布之日起实施。政策规定，对海南自由贸易港岛内居民在指定经 营场所购买的进境商品，在免税额度和商品清单范围内免征进口关税、进口环节以及国内环节 增值税和消费税。其中，岛内居民包括持有海南省身份证、海南省居住证或海南省社保卡的中 国公民，在海南省工作生活并持有居留证件的境外人员。免税额度为每人每年1万元人民币， 不限购买次数。 3、中国人民银行召开2026年信贷市场工作会议。会议要求，大力发展科技金融、绿色金融、 普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融，强化消费领域金融支持。建设多层次金融服务体系，着力支 持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。继续做好金融支持融资平台债务风险化解工 作，支持地方政府持续 ...