冠通期货研究报告 --沪铜周报 研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2026年3月9日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 行情分析 2 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 ➢ 宏观方面：2月28日起，美国以色列军事行动开始，伊朗最高领袖身亡后伊朗以色列军事矛盾加深，地缘冲突不断升温，霍尔木兹海峡被伊朗控 制，战争导致能化板块大幅上涨，本周末新任最高领袖上任后，冲突继续升级。美国劳工部数据显示，截至2月28日当周初请失业金人数为21.3 万人，符合预期；ADP报告显示2月私营部门就业增加6.3万人。 ➢ 供给方面：预计3月产量环比增长5.28万吨，同比上升6.51%，由于1月份检修企业多在3月复产，且新投产冶炼厂有增产，预计3月份产量可能创 历史新高。受政策问题的影响，再生铜市场骗局较为紧张，市场交易受限制，流通的货源略微偏紧，而铜冶炼厂受到阳极铜缺少的影响，再生铜 冶炼困难。目前国内下游对于含税再生铜原料需求旺盛，进口需求量高，预计后续进口废铜有增量。 ➢ 需求方面：假期节后下游逐 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including financial futures, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. Geopolitical factors, especially the Middle - East conflict, are the core influencing variables, causing significant price fluctuations in multiple markets. Short - term market volatility is high, and the market is mainly driven by geopolitical news. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: Overseas risk aversion may be transmitted to the A - share market, but the impact is diminishing. Domestic policy signals during the Two Sessions provide support, and the market is in short - term shock repair. Unexpected policies may drive the stock index to strengthen [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The policies of the Two Sessions have a neutral impact on the bond market. If the stock market adjustment intensifies, the bond market may rise due to risk - aversion. Short - term focus should be on the A - share trend and geopolitical situation [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The US - Iran conflict is the core influencing variable, with factors such as blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and postponed Red Sea resumption expectations being positive. However, issues like conflict sustainability, weak demand, and shipping capacity spill - over risks still exist, and short - term market volatility is extremely high [3]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The Middle - East conflict and non - farm data affect interest - rate cut expectations. Supply - side cost increases provide a long - term upward basis, but short - term adjustment risks due to postponed interest - rate cut expectations should be watched [4]. - **Gold & Silver**: The recent weakness of precious metals is due to the Middle - East situation weakening interest - rate cut expectations, leading to higher US dollar and bond yields. Short - term technical corrections after geopolitical risk mitigation should be watched [5]. - **Copper**: Last week, the copper price fell from a high, and this week it will be in a game between high inventory and peak - season expectations. The key window to verify the inventory inflection point is in mid - to late March [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts dominate the price trend. The US - Israel - Iran conflict affects aluminum supply in the Middle - East, and the price will show different performances under different conflict scenarios [6]. - **Alumina**: The US - Iran conflict has limited impact on the domestic fundamentals, but it follows the rise of aluminum prices. The medium - to long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai aluminum, and has strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: Supply may be affected by the Iran situation, and demand - side inventory pressure is large. Short - term metal prices may be suppressed [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The annual nickel ore production estimate has limited impact on the industry chain. The first half of the year has a tight quota. The market is in the post - holiday recovery stage, and the peak - season expectation supports downstream demand [9]. - **Tin**: The Iran situation and non - farm data support the metal. Supply is tight, and demand is starting to resume. High inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, the market's concern about demand has increased, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [11][12]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and supply - demand optimization signals [12]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week [12]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The Iran geopolitical conflict drives up the prices of raw materials, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is stable, and the short - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term price has support due to tight tradable resources, but the upside is limited by high supply, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [14]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Domestic coal mine复产 and increased Mongolian coal customs clearance bring supply pressure. Coke production may increase, but the terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [15]. - **Ferrosilicon & Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is strengthening, but the weak downstream demand and high inventory of steel products limit the upward space [16]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Middle - East situation is the core trading logic. The US - Iran conflict has led to supply shortages, and the market is highly volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to the Strait of Hormuz navigation and oil - producing countries' inventory changes [17]. - **Fuel Oil**: Chinese exports and the Middle - East conflict affect the Asian gasoline market. The short - term Asian gasoline price difference remains high, and the core drivers are geopolitical situation and Chinese export policies [17]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to increase, and inventory has seasonally accumulated. The asphalt price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are the most important [18][19]. - **LPG**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the core trading point. The supply disruption and US cold wave have pushed up the price. The length of the blockade determines the price trend [20]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has changed the import expectation, and the MTO profit expansion may drive the methanol price to catch up with the olefin increase [21]. - **Plastic**: The Middle - East situation has led to supply concerns, and the supply - reduction and demand - increase pattern makes the short - term market run strongly [21]. - **Rubber**: Geopolitical conflicts support the synthetic rubber price, which in turn boosts natural rubber. The supply - demand利多 and macro利空 coexist, and short - term geopolitical factors dominate the trend [22]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has created a global urea supply gap, and the international price has risen. The domestic market is in a tight balance, and geopolitical risks are the key variables [22]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The US - Israel - Iran conflict has affected refinery operations. Downstream demand for restocking and export expectations are positive, and the short - term price is driven by geopolitical conflicts [23]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - side maintenance may increase, and demand is stable but weak. The inventory situation is better than expected. The medium - to long - term supply is expected to be high [24]. - **Glass**: The current production and sales are weak, and the market is in the recovery stage. High inventory and supply return expectations limit the price increase, and demand needs to be verified [25]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the price is in a weak and volatile state [26]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The current hog market is mainly trading the post - Spring Festival weak - demand reality. The price decline is supported by secondary fattening sentiment, but the upward driving force is weak [27]. - **Oilseeds**: The April China - US negotiation expectation, rising international fertilizer prices, and improved export expectations support the soybean price. The domestic market will follow the US soybean performance in the short - term [28][29]. - **Oils**: The recent strength of the oil market comes from the crude oil and diesel markets. Short - term attention should be paid to the US - Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz navigation [29]. - **Cotton**: The current domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the cotton price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton and geopolitical risks put pressure on the upside. The short - term price may be in a narrow - range shock adjustment [30]. - **Sugar**: The market lacks a clear trend - reversal basis, and the core contradiction is low valuation but lack of continuous upward driving force [31]. - **Apple**: The apple futures market is running strongly, driven by both fundamentals and delivery logic. The short - term support is strong [31]. - **Jujube**: The market focus is on the demand side. The post - Spring Festival downstream sales are average, and the price is under pressure and may maintain a low - level shock [32][33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Crude oil drives the energy - chemical sector to strengthen. After the holiday, PTA plants restarted at an accelerated pace, inventory began to accumulate, and the downstream polyester operating rate recovered simultaneously. Supply and demand both strengthened. In the short term, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate following the cost side [3]. - MEG: Geopolitical situations dominate the stage - by - stage fluctuations of ethylene glycol prices, providing support to the cost. However, high inventory will limit the increase. Ethylene glycol also faces the direct risk of supply interruption. If the conflict persists, it may break the loose supply - demand pattern. From March, the inventory at the main ports is expected to start to decline. Attention should be paid to overseas situations and plant changes [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Main Contract: On March 9th, the PTA main futures contract TA605 rose 7.01%, and the basis was - 3 yuan/ton, an increase of 197 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: The market price of PTA in East China today is 6295 yuan/ton, an increase of 425 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Affected by the Iranian situation, the cost - side Brent crude oil rose significantly to over $110 per barrel. The PTA capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 80.33% compared to the previous working day, and the factory inventory was 6.37 days, an increase of 0.9 days compared to last week [3]. - Main Force Movements: Long - position main forces increased their positions [3]. MEG - Main Contract: On March 9th, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 rose 7.99%, and the basis was 266 yuan/ton, an increase of 378 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today is 4810 yuan/ton, an increase of 545 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 97.3 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons compared to the previous period [4]. - Main Force Movements: Short - position main forces reduced their positions [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Lantern Festival, downstream demand is slowly recovering, and seasonal inventory accumulation continues. Due to the expected "Golden March and Silver April" demand peak season and strong cost support from energy prices, prices are supported at low levels. Futures trends are stronger than spot, and the basis is shrinking. Steel prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [7][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot prices: The price of 20MM HRB400E rebar in Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton; the price in Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3100 yuan/ton; the price in Guangzhou increased by 30 yuan/ton to 3390 yuan/ton. The price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton; the price in Tianjin remained unchanged at 3140 yuan/ton; the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged at 3240 yuan/ton. The price of imported iron ore (PB powder 61.5%, Australia) at Qingdao Port increased by 15 yuan/wet ton to 764 yuan/wet ton. The price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Lvliang decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1340 yuan/ton, and the price of low-sulfur primary coking coal in Linfen decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 1460 yuan/ton [7]. - Futures prices: The RB01 contract increased by 17 yuan/ton to 3141 yuan/ton; the RB05 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton to 3088 yuan/ton; the RB10 contract increased by 15 yuan/ton to 3115 yuan/ton. The HC01 contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3263 yuan/ton; the HC05 contract increased by 15 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton; the HC10 contract increased by 11 yuan/ton to 3244 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The basis of Shanghai rebar (05 contract) increased by 31 yuan/ton to 102 yuan/ton; the basis of Beijing rebar (05 contract) increased by 11 yuan/ton to 12 yuan/ton; the basis of Guangzhou rebar (05 contract) increased by 51 yuan/ton to 302 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai hot-rolled coil (05 contract) increased by 25 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton; the basis of Tianjin hot-rolled coil (05 contract) increased by 15 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton; the basis of Guangzhou hot-rolled coil (05 contract) increased by 15 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [7]. - Spreads: The RB05 - 10 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to -27 yuan/ton; the HC05 - 10 spread increased by 4 yuan/ton to -14 yuan/ton; the 05HC - 05RB spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to 142 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: The rebar futures warehouse receipt increased by 17318 tons to 16646 tons; the hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipt increased by 119968 tons to 472215 tons. The rebar mill inventory increased by 5 tons to 237.93 tons; the rebar social inventory increased by 70 tons to 637.75 tons; the rebar total inventory increased by 75 tons to 875.68 tons. The hot-rolled coil mill inventory increased by 5 tons to 90.08 tons; the hot-rolled coil social inventory increased by 24 tons to 381.61 tons; the hot-rolled coil total inventory increased by 20 tons to 471.69 tons [7]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - Production: The weekly production of rebar was 173.31 tons (a week-on-week increase of 4.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.06%), and the weekly production of national hot-rolled coils was 301.11 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.35%). The weekly production of rebar in blast furnaces was 161.62 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.54% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.35%), and the weekly production of rebar in electric furnaces was 11.69 tons (a week-on-week increase of 3.50 and a year-on-year decrease of 61.39%) [13][17]. - Capacity utilization rate: The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 77.71% (a week-on-week decrease of 3.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.74%), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 24.71% (a week-on-week increase of 144% and a year-on-year decrease of 63.08%) [21][22]. - Profit: The profit of rebar was +72 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 11 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 65 yuan/ton), and the profit of hot-rolled coils was -12 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 78 yuan/ton) [25]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of rebar was 98.23 tons (a week-on-week increase of 21.96% and a year-on-year decrease of 55.42%), the 5-day average of national building materials transactions was 5.66 tons (a week-on-week increase of 35.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.45%), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 281.57 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.46%) [30]. - Inventory: The rebar inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, but both mill and social inventories still increased. The rebar mill inventory was 237.93 tons (a week-on-week increase of 2.19% and a year-on-year increase of 3.88%), the rebar social inventory was 637.75 tons (a week-on-week increase of 12.33% and a year-on-year increase of 1.09%), and the rebar total inventory was 875.68 tons (a week-on-week increase of 9.38% and a year-on-year increase of 1.84%). The hot-rolled coil inventory increase has slightly expanded, with the social inventory continuing to rise and the mill inventory falling. The hot-rolled coil mill inventory was 90.08 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 4.96% and a year-on-year increase of 2.33%), the hot-rolled coil social inventory was 381.61 tons (a week-on-week increase of 6.78% and a year-on-year increase of 14.98%), and the hot-rolled coil total inventory was 471.69 tons (a week-on-week increase of 4.32% and a year-on-year increase of 9.97%) [35][40]. - Downstream real estate: The transactions in the commercial housing and land markets have both declined. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 8.75% week-on-week and 24.76% year-on-year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 36.30% week-on-week and increased by 188% year-on-year [43]. - Downstream automotive: In January 2026, automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million vehicles respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year-on-year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.041 million and 945,000 vehicles respectively, increasing by 2.5% and 0.1% year-on-year. In January, the export of complete automobiles was 681,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%. The export of new energy vehicles was 302,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 100% [46]. 3.3 Spread Analysis - The rebar basis continued to shrink, and the rebar 5 - 10 spread continued to widen. The coil - rebar spread continued to shrink, and the iron ore 5 - 9 spread continued to widen [48][53].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: March 9, 2026 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Market Quotes - The main contract of IM fell 0.37% to close at 8,191 points. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 274,410 lots, an increase of 98,751 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 399,385 lots, an increase of 31,272 lots from the previous day. The main contract of IM was at a discount of 12.87 points, an increase of 24.19 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -4.78%. The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.01 points, 0.2 points, 39.65 points, and 62.1 points respectively [3][4]. 2.2 Basis - The basis and annualized basis rates of different contracts were presented, showing the relationship between futures prices and spot prices [8][12]. 2.3 Open Interest - The net short - position ratio and the positions of major seats in different contracts (IM2603, IM2606, IM2609) were analyzed, including the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of top - ranked members and their changes from the previous day [13][16][20]. 3. IF Futures 3.1 Market Quotes - The main contract of IF fell 1.2% to close at 4,599.2 points. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 147,766 lots, an increase of 53,708 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 290,000 lots, an increase of 18,910 lots from the previous day. The main contract of IF was at a discount of 16.26 points, a decrease of 1.82 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -10.75%. The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 0 points, 0.45 points, 29.43 points, and 83.61 points respectively [21][22]. 3.2 Basis - The basis and annualized basis rates of different contracts were provided, reflecting the price differences between futures and spot [25][30]. 3.3 Open Interest - The net short - position ratio and the positions of major seats in different contracts (IF2603, IF2606, IF2609) were detailed, including the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of top - ranked members and their changes from the previous day [31][34][37]. 4. IC Futures 4.1 Market Quotes - The main contract of IC fell 0.79% to close at 8,267 points. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 203,367 lots, an increase of 66,844 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 307,707 lots, an increase of 17,558 lots from the previous day. The main contract of IC was at a discount of 12.48 points, an increase of 25.25 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -4.59%. The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 0.36 points, 6.86 points, 60.53 points, and 97.5 points respectively [39][40]. 4.2 Basis - The basis and annualized basis rates of different contracts were shown, indicating the price relationships between futures and spot [44][49]. 4.3 Open Interest - The net short - position ratio and the positions of major seats in different contracts (IC2603, IC2606, IC2609) were analyzed, including the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of top - ranked members and their changes from the previous day [50][54][57]. 5. IH Futures 5.1 Market Quotes - The main contract of IH fell 1.04% to close at 2,962.4 points. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 64,688 lots, an increase of 21,193 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 111,606 lots, an increase of 4,497 lots from the previous day. The main contract of IH was at a discount of 0.59 points, an increase of 2.11 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -0.6%. The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 0 points, 0 points, 18.27 points, and 63.94 points respectively [59][60]. 5.2 Basis - The basis and annualized basis rates of different contracts were presented, showing the price differences between futures and spot [64][68]. 5.3 Open Interest - The net short - position ratio and the positions of major seats in different contracts (IH2603, IH2606, IH2609) were detailed, including the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of top - ranked members and their changes from the previous day [69][72][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of rapeseed meal futures continued to rise supported by the strong US soybean market, but investors should be cautious about chasing the rise. The cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. Currently, it is the off - season of aquaculture demand, and the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid [2]. - The price of rapeseed oil futures continued to rise significantly driven by the international oil price increase and the expectation of biodiesel demand. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed will increase the import volume in the far - month, but the market has already expected this, so the impact on the price is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9954 yuan/ton, up 288 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2433 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active contract) was 729.8 Canadian dollars/ton, up 10.4 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 6056 yuan/ton, up 222 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 122 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was - 19239 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 273150 lots, and rapeseed meal was 746843 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 6544 lots, down 607 lots; rapeseed meal was - 130978 lots, up 42003 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 725 sheets, and rapeseed meal was 1411 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10810 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2690 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil was 10835 yuan/ton, up 535 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5453.78 yuan/ton, up 75.16 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 856 yuan/ton, up 272 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis was 257 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio was 3.96, up 0.05 [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - Spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 9240 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9830 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3270 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - Spot price spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1570 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil was 980 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal was 580 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production: Forecast annual production was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; annual forecast production was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Rapeseed was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; rapeseed meal was 0.5 million tons [2]. - Oil mill inventories: Rapeseed was 20 million tons, up 12.5 million tons [2]. - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate was 8%, up 4.8% [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 57 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Inventories: Coastal rapeseed oil was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal was 29.8 million tons, up 2.3 million tons; East China rapeseed oil was 26.1 million tons, up 1.9 million tons; East China rapeseed meal was 9.29 million tons, up 0.85 million tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil was 0.8 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; South China rapeseed meal was 1.5 million tons, down 0.06 million tons [2]. - Weekly提货量: Rapeseed oil was - 0.18 million tons, down 0.18 million tons; rapeseed meal was 0.54 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed production: Monthly production was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons [2]. - Consumption in the catering industry: Monthly social consumer retail sales of catering was 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production: Monthly production was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. 3.7 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal was 22.74%, up 1.95%; rapeseed oil was 18.88%, up 1.79% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal was 22.74%, up 1.95%; rapeseed oil was 18.85%, up 1.76% [2]. - Historical volatility: 20 - day rapeseed meal was 15.99%, up 0.68%; 60 - day rapeseed meal was 16.18%, up 0.82%; 20 - day rapeseed oil was 19.63%, up 2.38%; 60 - day rapeseed oil was 19.48%, up 0.93% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - On March 6 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher and recorded weekly gains, boosted by the rising soybean oil price. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract rose 10.90 Canadian dollars to 730.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - There is a strong expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in South America, and as the Brazilian harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. The market's outlook for US soybean demand remains uncertain. However, due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation and the soaring crude oil price, the US soybean biodiesel policy will boost the demand for soybean oil, and the strong US soybean crushing will support the US soybean market to rise [2]. - Statistics Canada's survey shows that the total intended planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 will increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the previous average expectation of 22.3 million acres among traders. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture said that the rapeseed production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2]. 3.9 Key Focus - The operating rate of rapeseed and the inventories of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions released by Myagric on Monday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory on the supply side is high, the elimination of old laying hens is slow, and the overall supply is sufficient. The demand side is in the off - season after the festival. After the Lantern Festival stocking, the terminal consumption is weak, the sales are average, and the spot price maintains a low - level shock. However, with the resumption of work and production of enterprises, the market sales have improved slightly, the feed cost is relatively stable, and the breeding is mostly in a state of breaking even or small profit. The market sentiment is highly divided. From the perspective of the futures market, boosted by the general rise of commodities, the egg futures hit a high and then fell back today, and generally continued to close higher, but the pressure of high inventory still exists, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3427 yuan/500 kilograms, with a decrease of 7226 compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9010 hands. The monthly spread between May and September contracts is - 425 yuan/500 kilograms. The trading volume of the active contract is 156507 hands, a decrease of 19256 hands. The registered warehouse receipt volume is 2 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.08 yuan/jin, and the basis (spot - futures) is - 349 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 69 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 109.28 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 2.75. The national elimination laying hen index is 124.98 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 23.8. The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.5 yuan/feather, an increase of 0.2. The national new - born chick index is 71.99 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 21.63. The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, with no change. The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.35 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.14. The average price of eliminated hens in the main production areas is 9.88 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.02. The average age of eliminated hens in the country is 500 days, with no change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 17.06 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04. The average wholesale price of pork is 5.02 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08. The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.18 days, a decrease of 0.08. The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.29 days, an increase of 0.05. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 14898.72 tons, an increase of 1853.2 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 4278 tons, a decrease of 2112 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.14 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 compared to yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.79 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.14; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.20 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.10 [2]

Group 1: Core Business Operations - COFCO Futures serves the main business of COFCO Group by providing "concierge-style" services, integrating deeply with various specialized companies within the group [1] - COFCO Futures offers one-stop solutions for risk management in commodities like oils, corn, and sugar, helping stabilize price fluctuations and lock in profits [1] - The "insurance + futures" model has been expanded to include "insurance + futures + credit + orders," supporting agricultural risk management and contributing to national rural revitalization strategies [1] Group 2: Integration of Industry and Finance - COFCO Capital's strategy of "integration of industry and finance" aims to create a deeply integrated ecosystem [2] - The strategy will be deepened through three aspects: enhancing the role of the integration committee, designing precise financial products addressing industry pain points, and upgrading service models to include "financial services + industry empowerment" [2] - Supply chain finance will be developed to provide convenient financing services for small and medium-sized enterprises in the upstream and downstream [2] Group 3: Trust Industry Development - The "three classifications" regulation presents both challenges and opportunities for COFCO Trust, indicating a return to core functions and transformation [3] - Development opportunities are identified in three core areas: standardized asset management, asset service trusts, and charitable trusts [3] - COFCO Trust aims to enhance investment research capabilities and expand product strategies to become a leader in niche markets [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall view of the report is to conduct light - position range - bound trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks for aluminum - related products, including alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and cast aluminum alloys. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 24,950 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,905 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote is 3,431 US dollars/ton, up 138.5 US dollars [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: The main - second - continuous contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum is - 10 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; that of alumina is - 55 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum is 219,433 hands, down 6,217 hands; that of alumina is 303,982 hands, up 668 hands [2]. - **Inventories**: LME aluminum inventory is 456,875 tons, down 2,250 tons; the total inventory of alumina is 402,768 tons, up 18,073 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 25,200 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,615 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,330 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 250 yuan/ton, up 515 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 290 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of alumina is 83%, down 1% [2]. - **Demand and Balance**: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the export quantity of aluminum scrap and waste is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons; the export quantity of alumina is 21 million tons, up 4 million tons; the import quantity of alumina is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,540.20 million tons, with the start - up rate at 98.93%, up 0.04% [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: The import quantity of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export quantity of primary aluminum is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 54 million tons, down 3 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 66.49 million tons, down 1.91 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy is 182.50 million tons, unchanged; the automobile production is 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. - **Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 35.13%, down 2.81%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 34.01%, down 0.13%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai Aluminum is 26.56%, down 0.0340 [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.86, down 0.0721 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Automobile Price Cut**: In February, the average price cut of new new - energy vehicles was 4.8 million yuan, with a cut rate of 13.5%; the average price cut of new conventional fuel vehicles was 4.6 million yuan, with a cut rate of 12.5% [2]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [2]. - **GDP and Investment**: It is expected that this year's GDP increment will exceed 6 trillion yuan, and a national - level merger and acquisition fund will be established to guide and leverage over 1 trillion yuan of funds [2]. - **Fiscal Policy**: This year, a more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, with the expenditure total exceeding 30 trillion yuan, the new government bond scale reaching 11.89 trillion yuan, and the central transfer payment to local governments reaching 10.42 trillion yuan [2]. 3.8 Alumina View - **Fundamentals**: The alumina main contract fluctuates. The supply is high and sufficient, and the demand is increasing steadily. The raw material price may be supported, and the overall situation is a stage of increasing supply and demand [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract fluctuates. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand will gradually emerge. The profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting is expanding, but the short - term price increase may affect downstream consumption. The overall situation is a stage of increasing supply and demand, and the aluminum ingot inventory is seasonally accumulating [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging [2]. - **Option Market**: The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.86, down 0.0721, and the implied volatility slightly decreases [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View - **Fundamentals**: The cast aluminum main contract fluctuates. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also increasing. The cost supports the price, and the inventory is being depleted [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The apple market trading maintains a two - tiered differentiation state, with the overall trading atmosphere stronger in the west and weaker in the east. The procurement enthusiasm for high - quality goods in the northwest region is okay, while the transaction in the Shandong production area is average. The arrival volume in the sales area has decreased, and the sales are average. The de - stocking speed has accelerated, and the short - term price of the apple main contract fluctuates sharply [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 10,287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan; the main contract position is 119,758 lots, a decrease of 7,496 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 9,438 lots, a decrease of 4,620 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodity) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 3.7 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, the apple orchard area in the whole country is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, a decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares; the weekly apple wholesale price is 9.42 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The total inventory of national apple cold storage is 527.53 million tons, a decrease of 25.39 million tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.42, a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.42, a decrease of 0.02; the monthly apple export volume is 160,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons; the monthly year - on - year export amount of apples is 30.7%, an increase of 14.5%; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 million US dollars, an increase of 657,409 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 6.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.24 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.52 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan. The average daily morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 9.6 vehicles, a decrease of 2.65 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 12.4 vehicles, a decrease of 2.85 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 18.4 vehicles, a decrease of 4.85 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 35.9%, a decrease of 3.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 35.89%, a decrease of 3.02% [2]