Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements in each sector, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk warnings. The overall market is influenced by factors such as policies, international trade, and seasonal patterns, with different sectors showing distinct characteristics and outlooks [2][3][5]. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance Index Futures - **Macro News**: The US Treasury Secretary plans to talk with China in the coming weeks to promote consultations on Sino - US trade. Northern Rare Earth is optimistic about future rare earth prices. In June, the retail sales of national passenger cars reached 2.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.6%. There is no exact news about silicon material storage from Tongwei Co., Ltd [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided. It is recommended to buy IH or IF index futures on dips and also consider IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data shows structural differentiation affected by tariffs. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards liquidity. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and COMEX gold declined, while COMEX silver rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.42%, and the US dollar index is 97.55 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Weak US inflation and economic data enhance the expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper declined, and Shanghai copper closed at 80,030 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. There are uncertainties in US copper tariff policies [10]. - **Price Forecast**: Shanghai copper is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and LME copper between 9,400 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: Aluminum prices rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.53%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,540 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly [12]. - **Outlook**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is strong, but the sustainability of the long - position sentiment is uncertain. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and consolidate, with Shanghai aluminum trading between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton and LME aluminum between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [12]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index declined. Zinc ore supply is high, and zinc ingot inventory is accumulating. Zinc prices are under pressure [13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index declined slightly. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead batteries has stabilized. Lead prices are expected to be relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead may be limited [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices were weak. The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the stainless - steel demand and the cost of nickel iron. It is recommended to short nickel on rallies, with Shanghai nickel trading between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel between 14,500 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices rebounded slightly. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that domestic tin prices will oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin prices between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The upward space of lithium prices is limited without macro - level positive factors. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 61,900 - 65,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the domestic main contract AO2509 trading between 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel main contract rose slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied in the short term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract declined. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is mainly affected by aluminum prices. The price has strong resistance above [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a weak and oscillating trend. The policy of "anti - involution and capacity reduction" has an impact on the market, but the specific implementation is uncertain. Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel will suppress exports [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand, and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore rose. The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand also declined. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price of glass was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short - selling positions should be avoided [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon closed slightly higher, and ferrosilicon closed slightly lower. The fundamentals of the two products are weak, but the market is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: Industrial silicon futures rose. The supply of industrial silicon is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, and hedging positions can be operated when there is a profit [32][33]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded. The market has priced in the small - scale storage expectation. The bullish and bearish views are different. The tire开工 rate is neutral, and the inventory is increasing [35][36][37]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, a neutral view in the short term, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [38]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all rose. There is uncertainty in geopolitical risks, and the market is in a state of tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of methanol declined. The upstream maintenance increased, and the demand decreased. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of urea rose. The short - term supply decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The price has support below and is recommended to be short - term long on dips [42]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene was stable, and the futures price declined. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly [43][44]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose slightly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to be under pressure [45][46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract declined. The supply and demand are both weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [47]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract was stable. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. In the third quarter, it is expected to de - stock. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49][50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PE declined. Affected by the OPEC+ production increase, the cost decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PP declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in July [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price was slightly stronger. The supply is seasonally decreasing, and the second - fattening space is still available. The short - term long - position may have space, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [54]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The price of eggs mostly declined. The supply is stable, and the demand is cautious. The short - term price is expected to be stable, and the mid - term price may be affected by supply and premium [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal prices also decreased. The supply of soybeans and protein is in excess. It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and wait for new driving factors [56][57]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Malaysian palm oil exports increased, and domestic palm oil prices strengthened. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but there are also factors suppressing the upward space. The market is expected to oscillate [58][59][60]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. Brazil's sugar exports increased in June, and the domestic import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to continue to decline [61]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs". The basis between futures and spot is strengthening, and the market expects the issuance of import quotas, which is a potential negative factor. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [62].

Group 1: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - The core viewpoint indicates that strong performance in US crude oil exports and production, along with unexpected commercial crude oil inventory reductions, is expected to support gasoline and aviation fuel demand during the summer travel peak [2][8] - The report anticipates Brent crude oil prices to have strong support at $60 per barrel in Q3 2025, with potential upward price adjustments of $5 to $15 per barrel if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate [2][8] - The report highlights that domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil supply sources and reducing sensitivity to oil price fluctuations through integrated upstream and downstream operations [9] Group 2: Banking Industry - The report notes a significant increase in the proportion of bill business among listed banks, with a rise of 0.98 percentage points to 5.7% by the end of 2024, indicating a shift in credit allocation towards more stable and lower-risk sectors [10][11] - The overall asset quality of the banking sector remains stable, with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan ratio to 1.22% and a decrease in the provision coverage ratio to 238% [11] - The report suggests that the banking sector's average dividend yield of 3.86% continues to attract long-term funds, with a positive outlook for A-share listed banks and select regional banks [12] Group 3: Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Industry - The report emphasizes that Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are reshaping the global pharmaceutical landscape by achieving better innovation outcomes at lower costs, with over $1 billion in revenue from domestic innovative drugs [4][14] - The report identifies three driving factors for the long-term growth of the innovative drug industry: sustained enthusiasm for business development (BD), breakthroughs in commercialization, and ongoing supportive policies [4][14] - The report highlights a significant increase in authorized transactions in the biopharmaceutical sector, with over 100 transactions in 2024, totaling approximately $52.3 billion, marking a 25% increase [14] Group 4: Technology and Computing Industry - The report indicates that the computing industry is expected to see a dual enhancement in performance and valuation due to accelerated demand recovery, particularly in the AI sector [17] - The report highlights Oracle's collaboration with OpenAI to develop multiple data centers across the US, reflecting the ongoing competition in the global AI computing market [17] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong positions in the AI and cloud computing sectors, as well as those involved in the domestic electronic device manufacturing [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector remains weak. Most chemical products are currently bearish, with a preference for holding short positions. The "anti-involution" expectation has limited positive impact on the energy and chemical sector, and the overall outlook is still bearish [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sector - Most chemical products have a mid - term structure of either shock or bearish, a short - term structure of bearish, and the strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle. The "anti - involution" expectation has a potential positive impact on PVC, but its positive impact on the energy and chemical sector is limited [2] 3.2 Individual Products 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in August, with an accelerated increase exceeding expectations, increasing the medium - term supply surplus pressure. However, due to the low inventory during the consumption peak season and the fact that the actual seaborne shipments of OPEC+ production have not increased significantly, the short - term bearishness is not obvious. The bullish factors are concentrated in the short term, and the bearish factors are concentrated in the medium term. Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in shock, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. The rebound today did not change the pressure, and there was a large amount of position reduction at the end of the session. The short - term market is still weak, with the short - term upper pressure level at 512. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [3] 3.2.2 Styrene (EB) - Logic: High device profits increase the supply expectation of styrene. The start - up has reached a recent high, and there will be greater supply pressure with the subsequent launch of new devices. The current inventory is turning to accumulation, and the bearish pressure is gradually being realized. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an increase in positions and a decline today. Pay attention to whether it can break the support at the lower edge of the small - cycle shock range to accelerate the decline. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [7] 3.2.3 Rubber - Logic: The natural rubber inventory has been accumulating against the season for 4 consecutive weeks. The "anti - involution" expectation puts more pressure on the terminal automobile and the currently over - supplied tire industry, and has no impact on rubber supply. High supply and weak demand are still the main tone of rubber supply and demand. Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the short - term pressure level is still at 14100. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [9] 3.2.4 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The demand side of tires still maintains a weak demand expectation. The start - up of semi - steel tires is likely to decline in the future under the huge inventory. After the subsequent launch of large - scale devices, the surplus pressure of butadiene will further expand. The "anti - involution" expectation has a greater impact on the terminal automobile and the over - supplied tire industry, and its impact on synthetic rubber supply is difficult to judge at present and is unlikely to have a substantial impact. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. After a large increase in positions and a long - negative line on Monday, today is a rebound with a reduction in positions, but the decline path remains unchanged. The short - term upper pressure level is temporarily focused on 11380. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [12] 3.2.5 PX - Logic: There is weak demand in the off - season. Although the inventory has been decreasing due to some device overhauls before, the profit has recovered significantly, and the device recovery expectation is strong. After the subsequent start - up increases, the fundamentals are expected to weaken under the weak off - season demand. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the market is still weak. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 6870. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [16] 3.2.6 PTA - Logic: In the off - season, the downstream polyester demand is average, and the polyester start - up is expected to decline. The supply is expected to increase as the PX device overhauls are restored. The fundamentals are expected to weaken. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and it is still regarded as weak. The short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 4840. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [18] 3.2.7 PP - Logic: The PP level remains relatively high. The previously overhauled devices have gradually resumed, and there will be new capacity put into production later, resulting in greater supply pressure. The downstream start - up declines in the off - season, and the fundamentals are expected to be weak, so it is treated bearishly. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the market is still weak. The short - term upper pressure level is focused on 7140. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20] 3.2.8 Methanol - Logic: On the supply side, the domestic start - up has declined, but it is still at a high level in recent years compared to the same period. The arrivals in June remained high, and the Iranian devices in the Middle East have restarted. Although the current shipments are small, the concern about the long - term import reduction has weakened. The downstream demand is average, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The supply - demand expectation is still regarded as bearish. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline. There was an increase in positions and a decline today, and a new low was reached in the 15 - minute short - cycle. The recent market is still weak, and the short - term upper pressure is temporarily focused on 2430. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [23] 3.2.9 PVC - Logic: The downstream terminal demand remains weak in the real - estate downward cycle and is difficult to improve. The Indian BIS certification has been postponed to December 24, but no domestic enterprise has obtained the certification. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the supply side is low, but the start - up still maintains the same - period high. The supply - demand is weak, but the "anti - involution" expectation brings short - term positive expectations. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the upper pressure is temporarily seen at 4955. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [25] 3.2.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Domestic devices have resumed production, and ethane imports have recovered. The downstream polyester start - up declines in the off - season, and the bearish factors have not dissipated, but the currently low port inventory provides some positive support. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the short - term upper pressure is 4345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [27][28] 3.2.11 Plastic - Logic: The downstream demand is weak in the off - season, and there are plans to put new capacity into production, so the supply - demand expectation is weak. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is in decline, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in decline. There was an intraday shock today, and the upper pressure is temporarily focused on 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [29]

Group 1 - The core issue is the decline in China-Russia trade, with a 6.6% year-on-year decrease in early 2025, particularly in the automotive and energy sectors [1] - Russia has implemented a flexible export tax policy linked to the ruble, raising the export tax on fertilizers to 10%, which has not been communicated to China, indicating a shift in their trade relationship [3] - In Q1 2025, China imported 24.31 million tons of crude oil from Russia, a 14.7% year-on-year decrease, reflecting a change in strategic attitudes rather than just procurement issues [3] Group 2 - The automotive sector is facing challenges as Russia has closed its market to Chinese electric vehicles, forcing Chinese companies to pivot to Central Asian markets like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan [5] - In April 2025, China imported 8.07 million tons of crude oil from Russia, accounting for 16.8% of total imports that month, a 12.9% year-on-year decrease, driven by both energy efficiency initiatives and Russia's export policy changes [5] - China is no longer offering concessions on coal imports from Russia, as domestic coal production is significant, and lowering tariffs could harm local coal companies [5] Group 3 - Despite visible cooperation in agriculture and technology, trade dynamics are shifting, with a 6.8% decline in China-Russia trade in Q1 2025, indicating a potential reduction in Russia's reliance on the Chinese market [7] - The changing trade relationship is characterized as a negotiation for rebalancing interests, with China needing to stabilize domestic demand and export routes while Russia aims to control inflation and stabilize the ruble through export policies [9] - The current state of affairs suggests a need for a long-term negotiation-based partnership between China and Russia, moving beyond previous informal agreements [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force and expected to be mainly bearish [3] Core View of the Report - The supply of PTA is bearish as domestic production is at a historical high, and factors like benzene price weakness and profit margins limit PX production increase. The demand is also bearish as polyester downstream load is expected to decrease, and major polyester factories in short - fiber and bottle - chip segments plan to cut production in July. The PTA is in a stockpiling cycle, with port inventory increasing by 30,000 tons this week. The PTA basis has weakened rapidly, and its processing fee has shrunk. PTA price is at a neutral - low level, and the macro - policy has a neutral impact [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Domestic PTA production is at a historical high, port inventory is decreasing, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to about $230 - 240, but benzene price weakness restricts PX production increase. The spread between PX and MX is about $90, which drives the recovery of PX load [3] - Demand: Polyester downstream load remains above 91% despite the expected reduction. Polyester factories' inventory is optimistic. Major production cuts are expected in short - fiber and bottle - chip segments in July, which will affect polyester load. As PTA price recovers, polyester's ability to absorb PTA price weakens, and weaving profit is compressed [3] - Inventory: PTA port inventory has accumulated, and it has entered a stockpiling cycle, with a 30,000 - ton increase in port inventory this week [3] - Basis: PTA basis has weakened rapidly. As PTA device increases with profit recovery and demand weakens, the market liquidity becomes looser [3] - Profit: The spread between PX and naphtha is $230, and the spread between PX and MX has shrunk. PTA processing fee remains at about 300 yuan and has contracted [3] - Valuation: PTA price is at a neutral - low level. As reforming devices gradually recover, aromatic supply increases, but gasoline profit is poor, and blending demand recovers [3] - Macro - policy: Trump plans to impose tariffs ranging from 60% - 70% and 10% - 20% on different countries starting August 1st [3][8] - Investment view: Oscillating, with no obvious driving force and expected to be mainly bearish [3] - Trading strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see [3] 2. Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - Policy: Trump plans to impose tariffs; the "Big and Beautiful Act" supports oil, gas, and coal production and restricts wind and solar energy; OPEC + is discussing an 81,100 - barrel - per - day production increase in August [8] - Gasoline: There are still concerns about the gasoline peak season. EIA data shows that the total inventory is 150,000 barrels, approaching 230 million barrels. Refinery operating rate has exceeded 94%, increasing gasoline production from 9 million barrels to 9.7 million barrels. North American refinery load is rising, and gasoline cracking profit shows a seasonal upward trend [23] 3. Aromatic Fundamentals Overview - MX: North American reforming device profit margin remains unchanged. The demand for MX in Asia is strong due to PX demand. Currently, tariffs hinder MX cross - regional arbitrage, but it is still marginally feasible. Asian spot MX supply is sufficient, and domestic mainstream reforming and aromatic extraction device productivity is decreasing [37][50][57] - PX: It is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures [49][56] - PTA: Due to large domestic production capacity, the PTA processing interval has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and capacity, the option - based income - enhancement plan is more widely used [49][56] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip: They are in the capacity launch cycle. Overseas demand is an important variable, and the "Belt and Road" initiative provides new export opportunities [49][56] 4. Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene glycol: Coal - price decline expands coal - based ethylene glycol profit. There will be a large amount of ethylene glycol arriving at ports later. Polyester production and sales are weakening, and it is entering the maintenance cycle [81] - Gasoline: Gasoline profit is recovering, and the load of major refineries is increasing [82] - Polyester: Downstream demand is weakening, and bottle - chip and short - fiber are in the maintenance period. Raw material prices are rising, and terminal demand is weakening [90][97]

昨日国际油价低开高走，布伦特09合约涨1.59%。我们认为0PEC+的快速增产政策对三季度的油价 冲击暂时有限，一方面考虑到部分产油国的实际产量已远高于目标产量且同步存在减产补偿计划的 约束，OPEC+实际月度增产量均小于产量目标的上调幅度；另一方面，三季度为汽油、航煤需求的 季节性旺季，本轮增产在夏季尚可得到需求端较好的承接。而度过三季度旺季之后，若美国的对等 关税政策依然延续，OPEC+产量的回归将对基本面产生更直接的利空压力，在中东地缘局势保持可 控的情景下油价重心面临进一步下移。豁免期延续至8月1日的美国对等关税最终博弈结果或不高于4 月初水平，原油短期仍持三季度底部抬升、震荡偏强的判断。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属偏弱震荡。上周美国非农数据超预期支持美联储继续保持观望，市场放弃对7月降息押 注。市场焦点转向即将到期的美国关税政策变动,特朗普威胁对部分国家加征关税。贵金属延续震 荡等待政策落地对市场情绪的影响。 (铜) 隔夜铜价走低，美盘铜日内跌幅大，特朗普向日韩及东盟国家放出一系列对等关税消息，并威胁金 砖国家关税税率。周内继续关注2507合约减仓速度，国内消费谈季明显，SMM社库增加1.1万吨至 14 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. imposing tariffs on 14 countries, highlighting the potential impact on various commodities and market sectors, including precious metals, oil, and stock indices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The U.S. will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on countries including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and South Africa starting August 1 [1]. - The announcement has led to a decline in domestic commodity futures, with most sectors experiencing a downturn, particularly in oilseeds and black metals [1][2]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are experiencing hesitation in upward movement due to market uncertainty surrounding the tariff policies and the upcoming deadline [2][16]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, which has led to a stabilization of the dollar and put pressure on precious metals [2][16]. Group 3: Oil Market - Oil prices rose over 2% as Saudi Arabia raised its outlook for oil demand in Asia, despite a surprise increase in U.S. crude oil inventories [3][10]. - The American Petroleum Institute reported a rise in crude oil inventories after five weeks of decline, indicating potential volatility in the oil market [3][10]. Group 4: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices have seen a decline, with public utility sectors leading gains while coal sectors faced losses, reflecting market reactions to tariff announcements [3][8]. - The financing balance decreased by 6.341 billion yuan, indicating a tightening of capital in the market as uncertainties around tariffs grow [3][8]. Group 5: Domestic Economic Policies - China's Premier Li Qiang emphasized the country's capability to counter external economic pressures and maintain healthy economic growth through proactive macroeconomic policies [5]. - The Chinese government plans to implement measures to boost domestic demand and consumption, aiming to leverage its large market size for economic stability [5]. Group 6: Commodity Market Trends - The article notes that various commodities, including methanol and rubber, are experiencing fluctuations due to seasonal demand and supply chain dynamics [11][12][14]. - The overall sentiment in the commodity market remains cautious, with traders closely monitoring the developments in tariff policies and their potential impacts on supply and demand [2][3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stocks: Short - term shock, biased towards strong operation, short - term cautious long [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term high - level shock, cautious observation [2] - Commodities: - Black: Short - term low - level shock rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous: Short - term shock correction, short - term cautious observation [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious observation [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level shock, cautious long [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date and imposed new tariffs on some countries, increasing short - term tariff risks and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, the June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, sent letters to 14 countries about new tariffs (25% on Japan and South Korea), increasing short - term tariff risks, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated; domestic consumption policy stimulus increased, and the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized "anti - involution", which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets, RMB appreciation, and continued warming of domestic market sentiment led to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks short - term shock, biased towards strong; treasury bonds short - term high - level shock; black commodities short - term low - level shock rebound; non - ferrous short - term shock correction; energy and chemicals short - term shock; precious metals short - term high - level shock [2]. 3.2 Stocks - Driven by sectors such as CSSC, power, and cross - border payment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. The current trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward drivers weakened. Short - term cautious long [3]. 3.3 Precious metals - Trump's tariff announcements increased market risk - aversion sentiment, but the strengthening US dollar and better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data, as well as the Fed's cautious attitude, put pressure on precious metals. The "Big Beautiful Act" provides long - term support for gold. Tariff disturbances will be the main short - term influencing factor, and gold volatility is expected to rise [4]. 3.4 Black metals 3.4.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined slightly, and trading volume remained low. The focus shifted to tariff negotiations. Vietnam imposed anti - dumping tariffs on Chinese hot - rolled steel, and the off - season affected demand. Supply - side production decreased, but finished product output increased slightly. Cost support was strong. Short - term range - bound thinking [5][7]. 3.4.2 Iron ore - Iron ore spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron production decreased, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. After the end - of - quarter shipment peak, shipping volume decreased, and arrival volume increased slightly. If iron production continues to decline, ore prices may fall [7]. 3.4.3 Silicon manganese/silicon iron - Spot prices were flat. Demand for ferroalloys was okay due to the increase in steel output, but there was a possibility of a decline in finished product output. Manganese ore prices rose. The market was expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. 3.4.4 Soda ash - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the signal of "anti - involution" from the Central Financial and Economic Commission, there were concerns about production capacity withdrawal in the glass industry, which initially drove up the price, but then it fell due to the weak supply - demand situation. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance, demand increased slightly, and profit decreased. In the long run, supply remained loose, and it was not advisable to go long [9]. 3.4.5 Glass - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, there were expectations of production cuts in the glass industry, which drove up the price. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and profit was at a low level. Production - cut expectations on the supply side were expected to support prices [10]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and new energy 3.5.1 Copper - The market may fluctuate as the July 9th deadline approaches. The clarity of trade tariffs may help the market rise. China's refined copper production increased in 2025, and inventory was at a medium - low level due to high demand [11]. 3.5.2 Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell due to tariff concerns. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory also increased slightly [11]. 3.5.3 Aluminum alloy - Entered the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Short - term shock, biased towards strong, but limited upside [11]. 3.5.4 Tin - Supply increased as the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded. Demand was weak in most sectors, and inventory increased. Short - term shock, but high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weakening demand would limit the upside in the medium term [12]. 3.5.5 Lithium carbonate - The main contract price fluctuated slightly. Supply faced a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. Cost support was strong. Viewed as shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.6 Industrial silicon - The main contract price was stable, and the spot price rebounded. Total production decreased due to reduced furnace - opening in the north. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.7 Polysilicon - The main contract price was strong, especially in the far - month contracts. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, expected to be strong, with high price elasticity [13][14]. 3.6 Energy and chemicals 3.6.1 Crude oil - Strong demand offset concerns about OPEC+ production increase and US tariffs. Short - term shock [15]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Oil prices were low, asphalt prices were in shock. Shipping volume decreased, factory inventory decreased slowly, and social inventory increased slightly. Followed crude oil at a high level [15]. 3.6.3 PX - After the decline in crude oil premium, the PX price weakened, and the PXN spread narrowed. PTA production recovery would support PX, and the weakening trend might slow down [15]. 3.6.4 PTA - Spot liquidity improved, inventory increased, and the basis and 9 - 1 spread weakened. Downstream operating rates continued to decline, and PTA prices had room to fall [16]. 3.6.5 Ethylene glycol - Port inventory decreased, supply pressure weakened, but downstream demand limited further inventory reduction. Short - term bottom - building, followed the polyester sector weakly [16]. 3.6.6 Short - fiber - Crude oil price decline drove down short - fiber prices. It followed the polyester sector, with weak terminal orders and high inventory. It would be in a weak shock pattern in the medium term [16]. 3.6.7 Methanol - Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals provided short - term support, but international production recovery and expected downstream maintenance led to a poor supply - demand outlook. It rebounded slightly under policy influence, with limited upside [16]. 3.6.8 PP - Production - restriction and new capacity coexisted, supply pressure eased slightly. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and oil prices were weak. Prices were expected to fall further [17]. 3.6.9 LLDPE - Equipment maintenance increased, but production was still high year - on - year. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase. Prices were under pressure [17]. 3.7 Agricultural products 3.7.1 Palm oil - As of July 4, 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in June, exports increased, and inventory was expected to decrease. Concerns about the US EPA hearing [19]. 3.7.2 Corn - Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increased supply, and futures prices were expected to weaken. However, it was difficult for futures to trade at a discount. The expected import volume was not expected to affect the new - season market, but there were concerns about pests and diseases [19][21]. 3.7.3 US soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans fell. The planting area was determined, and weather in the 7 - 8 key growth period was crucial. The current growing environment was good, but the risk of tariff implementation increased export uncertainty [20]. 3.7.4 Soybean and rapeseed meal - Soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Oil mills had high operating rates, and supply was abundant. The supply pressure in the 09 contract period was difficult to relieve, but short - term stability in US soybeans provided some support [20]. 3.7.5 Soybean and rapeseed oil - Soybean oil production decreased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil was supported by policies and the international market, and soybean oil inventory increased. They lacked an independent market and were affected by palm oil [20]. 3.7.6 Pigs - Leading enterprises had low willingness to increase sales volume and reduce weight. Supply in July was expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea in spring. There was a weak supply - demand situation, and the expected profit in the 8 - 9 peak season was low. Second - fattening was cautious, and the concentrated supply at the end of July and August would limit price increases [21].

Group 1 - The U.S. employment data for June shows mixed results, indicating a steady but weakening economic trend, with expectations of fiscal easing from the "Great Beautiful" plan suggesting resilience in the economy for the near term [1] - China's manufacturing and construction PMI showed marginal improvement in June, with strong midstream equipment manufacturing driven by exports and new industries [1] - The central government has reiterated the need to address low-price disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and automobiles, leading to increased expectations for "anti-involution" policies [1] Group 2 - The bond market experienced a shift to a looser funding environment post-quarter-end, with overall stability and a slight upward trend, despite weak fundamentals [1] - A-shares are under pressure in terms of corporate earnings, but liquidity and risk appetite are showing signs of recovery, suggesting a bullish market outlook [1] - A suggested investment strategy includes a "barbell" approach, balancing growth assets in Hong Kong and A-shares with low-volatility dividend assets until key economic indicators confirm an upward trend [1] Group 3 - The current low AH share premium and high U.S. Treasury yields may exert medium-term adjustment pressure on the Hong Kong stock market [2] - Oil demand is expected to be weak in 2025, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Economic policy uncertainties due to tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility are likely to support a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, although short-term volatility is expected [2] Group 4 - The formation of a MACD golden cross signal indicates positive momentum for certain stocks [3]

报告日期：2025 年 7 月 7 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美国设定新单边关税税率 据央视新闻，当地时间 7 月 4 日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国政府将从当天起 开始致函贸易伙伴，设定新的单边关税税率。特朗普称，新关税"十有八九" 从 8 月 1 日开始生效。对于将设定的新关税，特朗普说，"关税税率可能从 60%、70%到 10%、20%不等"。国务院副总理刘国中在广东调研时强调，要加快 推进农业和医疗领域科技创新，因地制宜发展农业新质生产力，提升药品医疗 器械自主创新能力，有力促进产业提质升级和经济高质量发展。要加快构建药 品医疗器械领域全国统一大市场，支持企业参与国际竞争，拓展医药产业发展 空间。欧佩克+同意将 8 月份的石油产量提高 54.8 万桶/日，高于 5 月、6 月和 7 月 41.1 万桶/日，此前市场普遍预期 8 月增幅将继续维持这一幅度。欧佩克+ 代表表示，OPEC+将考虑在下次会议上再增产 54.8 万桶/日。 重点品种：集运、原油、螺纹钢 集运欧线：上周五 EC 午后走弱，08 合约收于 1849.9 点，下跌 1.71%。盘后公布 的 SCFI 欧线为 2101 美元/TE ...