1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, after the impact of macro - events ends, nickel prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and an unchanged supply surplus pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, although inventory has decreased for eleven consecutive weeks and material costs have risen, the overall demand recovery is not obvious, so stainless - steel prices are expected to mainly show an interval oscillation trend [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 24, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,150 yuan/ton and closed at 121,450 yuan/ton, a change of 0.23% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 107,755 (+54,856) lots, and the open interest was 85,526 (+1,266) lots. The main contract price showed a slight upward trend, with strong night - session performance, morning - session oscillation, and slight afternoon fluctuations. Fed Chairman Powell's speech may support nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: A new round of quotes was released. The FOB price of the 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines' CNC mine was 31 dollars, and the CIF prices of the 1.4% nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia were 50.5 and 51.5 dollars respectively. Typhoon weather affected nickel ore unloading in some coastal areas. Philippine mine quotes remained firm, and shipments from areas like Surigao were not affected. Downstream iron plants still had losses and were cautious in purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply remained in a loose pattern, with the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price rising by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the domestic trade premium remaining at +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading cooled slightly, and the spot premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,971 (-493) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 230,586 (+132) tons [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 24, 2025, the main contract 2511 of stainless steel opened at 12,905 yuan/ton and closed at 12,895 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 122,330 (-16,687) lots, and the open interest was 116,704 (-4,171) lots. The opening price was the same as the previous day's settlement price. The night - session continued the previous day's strong trend, but the day - session weakened rapidly after opening, with the lowest point reaching 12,870 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, it oscillated in the range of 12,890 - 12,900 yuan/ton. The closing price was 10 yuan lower than the previous trading day, and the fluctuation range was only 80 yuan, indicating little difference between long and short in the market. Typhoon "Huajiaisha" led to the suspension of pick - up in Foshan, resulting in a significant decrease in trading volume [3][4]. - **Spot**: Downstream remained in a wait - and - see state, and market confidence was insufficient, resulting in light spot trading. The pre - National Day holiday stocking demand was not obvious, which was also affected by the typhoon weather to some extent. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 - 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 955.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Grasberg mine accident intensifies concerns about tight global copper mine supply, and copper prices are expected to benefit from potential Fed rate cuts. In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions support copper prices, with the short - term price rising due to mine disturbances. The main focus is on the 81000 - 81500 support level [2]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" pattern, with short - term prices expected to oscillate between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to show high - level oscillations after a decline, with the main contract in the 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton range [5]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy futures prices oscillate with aluminum prices. Cost rigidity and pre - holiday stocking support prices, but weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation restrict price increases. Short - term ADC12 prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton range [7]. Zinc - Due to the expectation of loose supply, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. Short - term prices may rise due to macro - drivers, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [10]. Tin - Supply is tight, providing support for tin prices, which continue to oscillate at high levels in the 265000 - 285000 range. The focus is on the supply recovery situation in Myanmar [12]. Nickel - The macro - environment is stable, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. The main reference range is 119000 - 124000 [14]. Stainless Steel - Raw material prices are firm, providing cost support, but the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main operating range at 12800 - 13200 [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance. Strong peak - season demand supports prices, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate and sort out, with the main price center in the 70000 - 75000 range [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80045 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the refined - scrap price difference is 1879 yuan/ton, up 4.45% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; alumina prices in various regions show different degrees of decline [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; various regions' price differences show different degrees of decline [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21820 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 3230 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; imports were 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price is 271400 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 13025.42 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, tin ore imports were 10278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the futures import profit and loss is - 1374 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the futures - spot price difference is 375 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average is 856 dollars/ton, down 0.47% [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market remains strong due to expectations of future US liquidity easing, but there are still risks of stagflation in the US and geopolitical conflicts. In the long - term, there is a tendency for global asset allocation to shift towards gold, and short - term fluctuations can be dealt with by a low - buying strategy [2][3]. - The copper market is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and domestic production has declined. The consumption is weak in the peak season, and short - term copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation [5][9][11]. - The alumina market shows a weakening trend. The domestic and overseas spot prices are falling, and the import window is slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea has an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals are weak [13][16]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a stable and slightly strong alloy ingot spot price. The enterprises in some regions are preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday, and the downstream demand is picking up [18]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves significantly [22][25]. - The zinc market may maintain a slight surplus in September. The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the downstream has a replenishment expectation, but the amplitude is limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [27][30]. - The lead market has mixed long and short factors. The supply may increase, and the downstream may stock up before the holiday. The lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level [32][34]. - The nickel market is slightly boosted by the Indonesian policy, but the impact on the supply is limited. The net import is expected to decline, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [36][37]. - The stainless steel market has a supply pressure as the production has increased significantly in September, but the inventory is slowly decreasing, and the cost support is strong. It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [39][41]. - The industrial silicon market has a "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle" inventory structure. The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on the price. It is recommended to participate in long positions [43]. - The polysilicon market has a short - term negative impact on the futures due to the rumor of production resumption. The best strategy is to participate in long positions after the price correction [45][46][47]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a stalemate. The supply increment is limited in the short term, and the demand is strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [48][51][52]. - The tin market has a high - level oscillation. The supply is still tight, and the demand is sluggish. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold hit a new high above $3790 and then fell back, closing up 0.46% at $3764.02 per ounce. London silver first rose and then fell, closing down 0.07% at $44.02 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also had corresponding price changes [2]. - The US dollar index oscillated above 97, closing down 0.08% at 97.22. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.11%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was in a high - level consolidation, closing at 7.1119 [2]. Important资讯 - The Fed officials had different views on interest rates. Powell thought the policy rate was still slightly restrictive, and the market expected further interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October and December was high [2]. - The US September PMI data showed that the economy had some resilience. Geopolitical conflicts also had an impact on the market [2]. Logic Analysis - The market expected future US liquidity easing, but there were still stagflation risks and geopolitical conflicts. The precious metals maintained a strong trend, but there were profit - taking signs at high levels [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a low - buying strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Use collar call options [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 79,970 yuan per ton, up 0.04%. The LME copper closed at $9,993.5 per ton, down 0.08% [5]. - The LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 144,900 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,511 tons to 318,200 tons [5]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission and implied that interest rates were still restrictive [5]. - There were differences within the Fed on future monetary policies. Southern Copper expected stable copper production in Peru this year and had some project plans [5][7][8]. Logic Analysis - Macro factors indicated that interest rates were still restrictive, and the market followed the Fed's statements. Fundamentally, the supply of copper concentrates was tight, and domestic production declined. The consumption was weak in the peak season [9]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term copper prices will be in a high - level consolidation. - Arbitrage: Hold long - short cross - market arbitrage positions. - Options: Wait and see [11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session alumina 2601 contract decreased by 18 yuan to 2,881 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [13]. Important资讯 - There were some spot transactions in different regions, and the prices decreased. The national alumina production capacity operation increased slightly, and the Australian alumina price decreased. The import and export volume of alumina in August had corresponding changes [13][14]. Logic Analysis - The domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina were falling, and the import window was slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea had an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals were weak [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The alumina price will run weakly. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse calendar spread arbitrage. - Options: Wait and see [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 40 yuan to 20,270 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable [18]. Important资讯 - A policy on standardizing investment promotion affected the recycled aluminum industry. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots changed, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched the standard warehouse receipt generation business for casting aluminum alloy [18]. Trading Logic - Some enterprises in Henan, Jiangxi, and Anhui were preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday. The downstream demand was picking up, and the alloy ingot spot price was stable and slightly strong [18]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy futures price will oscillate weakly following the aluminum price. - Arbitrage: Long AD and short AL. - Options: Wait and see [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 20,670 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [22]. Important资讯 - The euro - zone September manufacturing PMI fell into the contraction range, and the US manufacturing PMI was still in the growth range. The electrolytic aluminum inventory in the main markets decreased. An electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia was expected to be put into production in stages. The import and export volume of aluminum ingots in August had corresponding changes [22][23]. Trading Logic - The Fed was cautious about further interest rate cuts. The European manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range. Domestically, attention should be paid to the downstream's inventory - building sentiment and holiday plans [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum price will be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [25]. Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market decreased by 0.36% to $2,889.5 per ton. The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract decreased by 0.09% to 21,935 yuan per ton [27]. - The spot price in Shanghai was in a certain range, and the trading was not active [27]. Important资讯 - The domestic zinc inventory decreased in some regions and increased in others. Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong was expected to decline [27][28]. Logic Analysis - The domestic refined zinc supply in September may decrease slightly, but the monthly output was still at a relatively high level. The downstream enterprises bought at low prices, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downstream had a replenishment expectation before the National Day, but the amplitude was limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [28][30]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term zinc price will oscillate in a range. Pay attention to the LME inventory change. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [30]. Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market decreased by 0.03% to $1,999 per ton. The Shanghai lead 2511 contract decreased by 0.2% to 17,090 yuan per ton [32]. - The SMM1 lead average price decreased, and the price difference between different regions and types of lead existed. The transaction of recycled refined lead was under pressure [32]. Important资讯 - The SMM lead ingot social inventory decreased. The import volume of lead concentrates in August increased, and the import and export volume of lead - acid batteries decreased [32][33][34]. Logic Analysis - The lead price strengthened, and the loss of domestic recycled lead smelting was repaired. Some enterprises planned to resume production. The downstream lead - storage enterprises may stock up before the holiday. The lead price was expected to oscillate at a high level [34]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term lead price will oscillate at a high level. Try short positions at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price increased to $15,340 per ton, and the inventory increased. The Shanghai nickel main contract increased to 121,740 yuan per ton [36]. - The spot premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [36]. Important资讯 - Indonesia punished some mining companies, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo was considering extending the cobalt export ban [36]. Logic Analysis - The nickel price was slightly boosted by Indonesia's policy, but the impact on the supply was limited. The net import of refined nickel decreased, and the LME inventory was expected to increase. The positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines supported the nickel ore price, but the upward momentum was insufficient. The nickel price will oscillate in a wide range [37]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main stainless steel SS2511 contract increased to 12,940 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [39]. Important资讯 - Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", Foshan implemented "five - stop" measures [39]. Logic Analysis - The stainless steel production in September increased significantly, but the demand did not show seasonal peak - season characteristics. The supply pressure existed, but the inventory was slowly decreasing, and the cost support was strong. The price was expected to oscillate [41]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The Tuesday industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated narrowly, closing down 2.3% at 8,925 yuan per ton. The spot price was stable [43]. Important资讯 - The export volume of industrial silicon products in August increased year - on - year and month - on - month [43]. Comprehensive Analysis - The industrial silicon inventory structure was "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle". The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment had a greater impact on the price. It was recommended to participate in long positions [43]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options. - Arbitrage: None [43]. Polysilicon Market Review - The Tuesday polysilicon futures main contract decreased and then rebounded, closing at 50,260 yuan per ton, down 2.745. The spot price was stable [45][46]. Important资讯 - The August全社会用电量 data was released, showing an increase year - on - year [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - The rumor of polysilicon production resumption in October was a short - term negative factor. The spot price was rising, and the best strategy was to participate in long positions after the price correction [46][47]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions after sufficient price correction [47]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract decreased to 73,660 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased. The GQEX warehouse receipt increased. The spot prices of electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate were stable [48]. Important资讯 - India had requirements for the procurement of components, battery cells, and silicon wafers in the ALMM project. Chile submitted the lease agreement for lithium production [49][51]. Logic Analysis - The lithium price was in a stalemate. The short - term supply increment was limited, and the demand was strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [51]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. - Options: Sell wide - straddle options [49][52]. Tin Market Review - The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 271,090 yuan per ton, up 0.31%. The LME tin inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory decreased significantly [54][57]. - The Shanghai metal network spot tin ingot average price decreased. The spot trading atmosphere improved, but the downstream demand was still limited [54]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission, and the Fed officials had different views on interest rates [56]. - An Indonesian tin ore producer planned to increase production next year, and a US tin smelter started construction [57]. Logic Analysis - The Fed had differences on future monetary policies. The tin ore supply was still tight, but there were short - term improvement signs. The demand was sluggish, and the consumption electronics and home appliance industries only slightly recovered. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation. - Options: Wait and see [58].

Macro Perspective - The U.S. Markit manufacturing and services PMI declined in September but remains in expansion territory, indicating a cooling in prices [1] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that interest rates are still "moderately restrictive," highlighting the dual challenges facing monetary policy, while also suggesting that the stock market may be overvalued [1] Industry Analysis - According to Huazhong Futures, the 2025 RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw material security for smelters, although policy disruptions persist [1] - Domestic nickel imports remained high in July, with Indonesian nickel pig iron supply also stable in August, and electrolytic nickel production maintained at elevated levels [1] - Refined nickel social inventory saw a slight decrease [1] Demand Insights - Zhongcai Futures noted that stainless steel performance improved slightly in September, while real estate data from July showed weak seasonal performance [1] - In the new energy sector, the operating rate of ternary materials improved month-on-month in September, with demand showing slight improvement during the "golden September" period [1] Market Outlook - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures indicated that disruptions from Indonesian mine closures are limited, with nickel ore prices remaining stable and no extreme weather impacts on overseas nickel mines [1] - Domestic southern port shipments are temporarily stagnant, leading to tight supply of intermediate products, with MHP spot resources in short supply and high nickel prices continuing to rise [1] - Nickel iron prices are still on an upward trend, but downstream acceptance remains weak, resulting in a slow pace of price increases [1] - The spot trading of pure nickel is sluggish, with no significant changes in premiums and discounts, suggesting that short-term nickel prices lack clear drivers and may undergo technical corrections [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - emotions, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside space [3]. - Stainless steel prices have limited downside space due to eleven - week consecutive inventory declines and rising material costs, but overall demand recovery is not obvious, and the price is expected to move in a range - bound manner [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2510 opened at 121,140 yuan/ton, closed at 120,730 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 52,899 (- 13,200) lots, and the open interest was 37,993 ( + 6,250) lots. The contract showed a weak volatile trend throughout the day, with a high of 121,440 yuan/ton and a low of 120,500 yuan/ton. The Fed's internal policy divergence after the 25 - basis - point interest rate cut last week put pressure on nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The new round of quotes has been released. The FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines' CNC mine is 31. Typhoon weather has affected nickel ore unloading in some coastal areas. Philippine mines' quotes remain firm. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply remains in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in September (Phase II) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the current domestic trade premium is + 24, with a premium range of + 23 - 24 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading has warmed up. The premiums and discounts of refined nickel brands remained stable, with those of Huayou and Zhongwei brands slightly increased. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,464 (- 72) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 230,454 ( + 1,554) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, easily affected by macro - emotions. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 23, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2511 opened at 12,910 yuan/ton, closed at 12,890 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 139,017 ( + 139,017) lots, and the open interest was 123,891 (- 4,171) lots. The contract oscillated around the previous trading day's settlement price throughout the day, with a high of 12,955 yuan/ton and a low of 12,865 yuan/ton, finally closing down 20 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by about 19% compared with the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 2,071 lots, indicating a decline in market participation and strong wait - and - see sentiment [3]. - **Spot**: Due to the lack of obvious improvement in downstream demand, market confidence has weakened, spot inquiries have decreased, and trading has been sluggish. Typhoon weather affected shipping and pick - up in Foshan. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,200 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,200 (- 50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 335 - 635 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron was 955.0 yuan/nickel point, a change of 0.50 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - The stainless steel price has limited downside space but overall demand recovery is not obvious, and it is expected to move in a range - bound manner. The single - side trading strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Copper - Copper prices experienced narrow fluctuations overnight, with macroeconomic factors influencing the market. Fed Chairman Powell indicated risks of inflation and employment, reiterating that tariffs are expected to have a one-time impact on prices, without suggesting support for rate cuts next month. He also warned about high valuations in the US stock market, signaling potential risks [1] - Domestic monetary policy remains supportive, with the central bank's governor stating no adjustments to short-term policies are planned. The current stance is to implement moderately loose monetary policy [1] - Inventory levels showed a decrease in LME copper by 400 tons to 144,975 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 91 tons to 288,837 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts fell by 2,166 tons to 27,727 tons, and BC copper decreased by 25 tons to 6,445 tons [1] - Demand from downstream sectors is weak due to high copper prices and macroeconomic uncertainties, with concerns over pre-holiday inventory replenishment [1] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.92% to $15,340 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 0.47% to 121,740 yuan per ton. LME inventory rose by 1,554 tons to 230,454 tons, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 72 tons to 25,464 tons [2] - Nickel ore prices remained stable, and stainless steel weekly inventory showed a significant decrease. Nickel iron prices strengthened, providing cost support, although supply increased [2] - In the new energy sector, demand for ternary materials slightly weakened in September, but cobalt policies may lead to tight MHP supply. The overall nickel price may see slight upward movement due to macroeconomic factors and rising nickel iron and MHP prices, although inventory remains a significant resistance [2] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy - Alumina prices showed a weak trend, with AO2601 settling at 2,881 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a slight decline, with AL2510 at 20,670 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [3] - Aluminum alloy prices remained strong, with AD2511 at 20,305 yuan per ton, up 0.22%. SMM alumina prices fell to 3,032 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingot prices showed a slight decrease [3] - The recovery of alumina plants has increased social inventory pressure, while domestic mines have not resumed production, leading to a decline in ore inventory. Overall, alumina remains bearish but may have reached a bottom [3] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a weak trend, with the main contract at 8,925 yuan per ton, down 2.3%. The reference price for industrial silicon was 9,604 yuan per ton, up 121 yuan from the previous trading day [4] - Polysilicon prices also declined, with the main contract at 50,260 yuan per ton, down 2.74%. The N-type polysilicon price rose to 52,500 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in the minimum delivery price [4] - The energy consumption policy draft for polysilicon has slightly raised standards, but the overall impact remains moderate. There is a strong sentiment for production and export in the polysilicon market, leading to a divergence between policy and actual supply-demand dynamics [4] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2511 contract fell by 0.16% to 73,660 yuan per ton. The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,850 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade was at 71,600 yuan per ton [5] - Import data showed that in August 2025, China imported 61.92 million tons of lithium spodumene, a decrease of 17.5% month-on-month. Carbonate imports increased by 57.8% month-on-month and 23.5% year-on-year [5] - Weekly production increased by 400 tons to 20,363 tons, with significant contributions from various lithium extraction methods. Inventory levels decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons, primarily driven by downstream replenishment [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Short - term copper prices are under slight pressure due to macro factors, supply tightness, and weak terminal consumption. The cross - market long - position arbitrage should be continued, and options should be on hold [4][11]. - Alumina: Alumina prices are expected to run weakly. The domestic and international spot prices are falling in resonance, and the fundamentals are in a weak trend [13][14]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices are expected to remain weak in the short term until there is a significant improvement in consumption. Arbitrage and options should be on hold for now [19][22]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures is expected to run weakly following the aluminum price. Arbitrage and options should be on hold [26][29]. - Zinc: Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Overseas de - stocking may support zinc prices, but there is a risk of further decline if LME stocks increase significantly [32]. - Lead: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply may increase, and downstream enterprises may stock up before the holiday, resulting in a combination of long and short factors [37]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock. Although demand is in the peak season, supply is growing faster, and the net import in September is expected to decline [42]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Production has increased in September, but demand has not shown seasonal strength, and there is both supply pressure and cost support [49][51]. - Tin: Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and demand is sluggish, but there are signs of short - term supply improvement [55]. - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices may continue to correct in the short term. The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on prices [63]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices are expected to rise after a sufficient correction. Although there is a risk of demand decline in October, the spot price is firm under the restricted sales background [67]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range shock. The supply and demand are both strong, but there is hedging pressure and a slight increase in the customer - supplied ratio next month [70][72]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 79,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.25%, and the Shanghai Copper index reduced its position by 10,887 lots to 466,700 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract of alumina decreased by 57 yuan to 2,877 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions also declined [8]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 85 yuan to 20,685 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased by 70 yuan/ton [16]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The 2511 contract of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 60 yuan to 20,255 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained flat [25]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 decreased by 0.68% to 21,845 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc index increased its position by 10,195 lots to 250,300 lots. The spot market trading was not as good as the previous day [28][30]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 decreased by 0.44% to 17,085 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead index reduced its position by 1,965 lots to 99,000 lots. The spot price of SMM1 lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton [33]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 decreased by 720 to 120,910 yuan/ton, and the index increased its position by 4,391 lots. The premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract SS2511 of stainless steel decreased by 20 to 12,890 yuan/ton, and the index reduced its position by 4,758 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [47]. - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2510 closed at 269,880 yuan/ton, a decline of 1,480 yuan/ton or 0.55%, and the position decreased by 1,058 lots to 52,059 lots. The spot price of tin decreased, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 8,925 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%. The spot price remained stable [60][61]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures increased its position and then decreased, and finally rebounded, closing at 50,260 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.745. The spot price remained stable [64]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate decreased by 120 to 73,660 yuan/ton, and the index reduced its position by 19,991 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 540 to 39,449 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [68]. Important Information - **Copper**: In August, China's copper concentrate imports increased, and the export of copper cables showed different performances in different regions. The copper mine supply was tight, and the production in some regions decreased [3][4]. - **Alumina**: There were transactions in the spot market, and the import and export volumes in August changed. The freight policy in Henan affected the inventory of downstream factories [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: There were diplomatic meetings, inventory changes, and information about the start - up of an overseas project. The import and export volumes of aluminum ingots in August also changed [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: A policy affected the recycled aluminum industry, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots changed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange started the standard warehouse receipt generation business for cast aluminum alloy [25]. - **Zinc**: The domestic refined zinc inventory changed, and the start - up rate of压铸 zinc alloy enterprises was affected by the typhoon [31]. - **Lead**: The import of lead concentrate increased, and the import and export of lead - acid batteries decreased [36]. - **Nickel**: There were some news about the mining company in Indonesia and the cobalt export policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [41]. - **Stainless Steel**: The import tariff affected the stainless steel market, and the import volume from Vietnam decreased. The apparent consumption of stainless steel in China increased [48]. - **Tin**: China's tin ore imports in August changed, and an Indonesian mining company planned to increase production. An American tin smelter started construction [54]. - **Industrial Silicon**: China's industrial silicon exports in August increased [62]. - **Polysilicon**: The national energy consumption data in August was released [65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There were news about the carbon emission trading market and the lithium production cooperation in Chile [69]. Logic Analysis - **Copper**: Macro factors, supply tightness, and weak terminal consumption led to short - term pressure on copper prices [4]. - **Alumina**: The domestic and international spot prices were falling in resonance, and the supply of bauxite was expected to increase, resulting in a weak fundamental trend [13]. - **Aluminum**: The Fed's attitude towards further interest rate cuts was cautious, and the domestic market needed to pay attention to downstream stocking before the holiday [19]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Enterprises stocked up in advance, and the start - up rate of die - casting factories increased, so the alloy ingot price was expected to be stable and slightly strong [26]. - **Zinc**: The supply of refined zinc in September might decrease slightly, but it was still at a relatively high level. The downstream replenishment was expected to be limited, and the overseas de - stocking might support zinc prices [32]. - **Lead**: The supply of lead ingots might increase, and downstream enterprises might stock up before the holiday, resulting in a combination of long and short factors [37]. - **Nickel**: Although demand was in the peak season, supply was growing faster, and the net import in September was expected to decline [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: Production increased in September, but demand did not show seasonal strength, and there was both supply pressure and cost support [49][51]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore was still tight, and demand was sluggish, but there were signs of short - term supply improvement [55]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inventory structure was "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment had a greater impact on prices [63]. - **Polysilicon**: There was a short - term negative impact on the futures price, but the spot price was rising steadily, and it was recommended to buy after a sufficient correction [67]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply increase was limited in the short term, and demand was strong, but there was hedging pressure and a slight increase in the customer - supplied ratio next month [70][72]. Trading Strategies - **Copper**: Short - term short - selling for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market long - position arbitrage, and hold options [11]. - **Alumina**: Single - side trading, expect prices to run weakly [14]. - **Aluminum**: Single - side trading, expect prices to remain weak in the short term; hold for arbitrage and options [22][23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Single - side trading, expect prices to run weakly following the aluminum price; hold for arbitrage and options [29]. - **Zinc**: Single - side trading, expect prices to fluctuate within a range; hold for arbitrage and options [32]. - **Lead**: Single - side trading, expect prices to fluctuate at a high level, and try short - selling at high prices; hold for arbitrage and options [38]. - **Nickel**: Single - side trading, expect wide - range shocks; hold for arbitrage and options [43][44][45]. - **Stainless Steel**: No specific trading strategy was mentioned in the report. - **Tin**: Single - side trading, expect high - level shocks [56]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Single - side trading, buy after the correction stabilizes; sell out - of - the - money put options; no arbitrage strategy [63]. - **Polysilicon**: Single - side trading, buy after a sufficient correction; conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; no option strategy [67]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Single - side trading, expect wide - range shocks; hold for arbitrage; sell wide - straddle option combinations [73].

Report Summary 1. Overall Information - Report Title: Galaxies Non - ferrous Metals R & D Report - Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Daily Morning Observation - Date: September 23, 2025 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core Views - The precious metals market shows strong upward momentum, with gold hitting a new high and silver reaching its highest level since May 2011. The market is influenced by factors such as Fed interest rate expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation concerns [2]. - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals. Although there is potential for further interest rate cuts, there are differences among policymakers. Supply is tight, and consumption shows a "peak season is not prosperous" situation [6][8]. - The alumina market has a weak fundamental trend, with domestic and foreign spot prices falling in resonance, and the import window opening slightly [11][13]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a positive market expectation, with alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [16][18]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by Fed interest rate policies and domestic downstream demand. After the price correction, attention should be paid to the downstream stocking sentiment before the holidays [21][23]. - The zinc market has support at the bottom in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, mainly due to the potential reduction in domestic supply and the downstream pre - holiday stocking demand [25][26]. - The lead market has a situation where long and short factors are intertwined, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [29][31]. - The nickel market maintains a wide - range oscillatory trend, with supply increasing faster than demand, and the price is affected by factors such as news from Indonesia and the Philippines [33][36]. - The stainless steel market is expected to remain oscillatory, with supply pressure above and support below due to factors such as production scheduling, inventory, and cost [39][42]. - The industrial silicon market may continue to correct in the short term, and the impact of polysilicon production scheduling and market sentiment on the price is greater [44][46]. - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward trend in spot prices, and the best strategy is to wait for the price to correct sufficiently before going long [48][50]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong in the short term, with supply and demand both being strong [52][55]. - The tin market is expected to remain oscillatory at a high level, with tight supply at the mine end and weak demand [57][60]. 4. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review** - Gold: London gold rose by over $60 during the day, hitting a new high of over $3740, and finally closed up 1.67% at $3746.63 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 1.46% to 850.98 yuan per gram [2]. - Silver: London silver reached its highest level since May 2011, closing up 2.38% at $44.02 per ounce. Shanghai silver futures rose 1.77% to 10348 yuan per kilogram [2]. - Dollar Index: It first rose and then fell, ending a three - day winning streak, closing down 0.38% at 97.30 [2]. - US Treasury Yield: The 10 - year US Treasury yield continued to rebound, closing at 4.151% [2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: It fluctuated within a narrow range, closing down 0.07% at 7.1138 [2]. - **Important Information** - Fed officials' views are divided on further interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. In December, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 75.3% [2]. - **Logic Analysis** - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps last week, the expectation of two more cuts this year remains high. The risk of stagflation in the US still exists, and geopolitical conflicts occasionally emerge, driving gold prices higher. Silver shows greater upward elasticity [2]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Continue the low - buying idea. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 80100 yuan per ton, down 0.02%. The Shanghai copper index decreased by 6971 lots to 470,600 lots. LME copper closed at $10002 per ton, up 0.06% [6]. - Spot: LME inventory decreased by 2275 tons to 145,300 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1511 tons to 318,200 tons [6]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US leaders' phone call improved market sentiment. Fed officials have different views on further interest rate cuts. Argentina plans to develop copper resources [6][8]. - **Logic Analysis** - Macro - factors are positive, but there are differences among policymakers on interest rate cuts. Supply is tight due to production accidents and other reasons, and consumption is weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The copper price may consolidate at a high level in the short term. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage positions. - Options: Wait and see [9]. Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2906 yuan per ton [11]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased, with the national weighted index down 1.2 yuan to 3009 yuan [11]. - **Important Information** - Xinjiang's alumina spot tender price decreased. The operating capacity increased slightly. Australian alumina prices decreased, and China's alumina import and export data changed [11][13]. - **Logic Analysis** - Domestic and foreign spot prices are falling, the import window is slightly open, and the fundamentals are weak [13]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The alumina price is expected to be weak. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [14]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 20265 yuan per ton [16]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased by 100 yuan per ton [16]. - **Important Information** - Policies affect the recycled aluminum industry. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in some regions changed, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched the standard warehouse receipt generation business for casting aluminum alloy [18]. - **Logic Analysis** - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday. The downstream production rate is rising, and the market expectation is positive [18]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: After the aluminum alloy futures price pulls back from a high level, pay attention to the rebound opportunity supported by fundamentals. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 55 yuan to 20715 yuan per ton [21]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased [21]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US leaders' phone call. The inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project is progressing as planned, and China's aluminum export data changed [21][23]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Fed is cautious about further interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking sentiment before the holidays [23]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: After the aluminum price pulls back, pay attention to the opportunity of stabilizing and rebounding. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [23]. Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: LME zinc rose 0.05% to $2900 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2511 rose 0.18% to 22035 yuan per ton. The Shanghai zinc index decreased by 1558 lots to 238,500 lots [25]. - Spot: The spot price in Shanghai increased slightly, and the downstream buying sentiment was strong [25]. - **Important Information** - The domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the import data of zinc concentrate and refined zinc changed [25][26]. - **Logic Analysis** - Domestic supply may decrease slightly, and downstream pre - holiday stocking demand exists. The LME zinc price is supported by inventory reduction [26]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The zinc price may fluctuate within a range in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: LME lead fell 0.17% to $1999.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2511 rose 0.03% to 17165 yuan per ton. The Shanghai lead index increased by 862 lots to 101,800 lots [29]. - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead was flat. The trading volume was limited due to limited supply and high prices of recycled refined lead [29]. - **Important Information** - The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, and the import data of lead concentrate and lead - acid batteries changed [29][31]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply may increase as some smelters plan to resume production, and downstream enterprises may stock up before the holiday. The price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [31]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The lead price may remain volatile at a high level in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [34][32]. Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: LME nickel fell $70 to $15200 per ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2511 fell 220 yuan to 121410 yuan per ton. The index position increased by 1326 lots [33]. - Spot: The premiums of different nickel products were flat [33]. - **Important Information** - Rumors about an Indonesian mining company were refuted. The Democratic Republic of the Congo may extend the cobalt export ban [33][36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The nickel price pulled back with the weak commodity market. Supply is increasing faster than demand, and the price is affected by news from Indonesia and the Philippines [36]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [37]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2511 contract rose 25 yuan to 12935 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased by 1804 lots [39]. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [41]. - **Important Information** - US import tariffs affect the stainless steel market. Taiwan's imports from Vietnam decreased. China's stainless steel consumption increased [41]. - **Logic Analysis** - Production scheduling has increased, but demand has not shown seasonal strength. The price is expected to remain oscillatory [42]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [42]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main industrial silicon futures contract decreased by 0.83% to 8950 yuan per ton, with significant position reduction [44]. - Spot: The spot price increased by 100 - 150 yuan per ton [44]. - **Important Information** - Yunnan silicon plants plan to reduce production due to electricity price increases. The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle" [46]. - **Logic Analysis** - The inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The impact of polysilicon production scheduling and market sentiment on the price is greater [46]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate after the price stabilizes from the correction. - Options: Look for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money put options. - Arbitrage: None [46]. Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main polysilicon futures contract decreased by 3.63% to 50990 yuan per ton, with position increase [48]. - Spot: The spot price was stable [48]. - **Important Information** - Spain's self - use photovoltaic installation capacity has declined for three consecutive years [48]. - **Logic Analysis** - The spot price is likely to rise in the long term. There are short - term negative factors for futures, and the best strategy is to go long after the price correction [50]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Go long after the price corrects sufficiently. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. - Options: None [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2511 contract decreased by 140 yuan to 73480 yuan per ton. The position and warehouse receipts decreased [52]. - Spot: The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased [52]. - **Important Information** - Canada's renewable energy market has great potential, and China's lithium - ion battery export data increased [52][55]. - **Logic Analysis** - The price pulled back due to the weak commodity market. Supply growth is limited, and demand is strong. The price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong [55]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Oscillatory and slightly strong. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract decreased by 0.28% to 270610 yuan per ton, and the position increased by 263 lots [57]. - Spot: The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased [57]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US relations and Fed officials' views. An Indonesian tin company expects to achieve its production target [57][59]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply at the mine end is tight, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's复产 and electronic consumption recovery [60]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Remain oscillatory at a high level. - Options: Wait and see [61].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Research team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility Forecast Nickel - Price range forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.17% - Current volatility historical percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price range forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton - Current volatility (20 - day rolling): 6.91% - Current volatility historical percentile: 0.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell NI main contract futures to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month NI contracts to lock in production costs according to the production plan, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell SS main contract futures to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month SS contracts to lock in production costs according to the production plan, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Nickel and stainless steel in the Shanghai market oscillated weakly during the day, and the non - ferrous metals market as a whole was weak - In the nickel ore market, the Indonesian Energy Ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies on September 18, with an estimated impact on nickel ore quotas of less than 3 million tons. As the quota approval for the next year approaches in October, concerns about the stability of ore supply have increased - In the new energy sector, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is expected to extend the cobalt export ban, and the total export quotas for 2025 and 2026 have been announced, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The market circulation is tight, inventories are low, and there are still inquiries - Nickel iron prices have remained firm recently, with no downward driving force under cost support - In the stainless steel market, there has been repeated bargaining during the week. The spot market is in a contradiction, trying to support prices but facing weak demand. The wait - and - see sentiment is strong before the holiday [3] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, including elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota permit period from three years to one year - Stainless steel has seen continuous de - stocking for several weeks - Indonesia's forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [5] Bearish Factors - High inventory of pure nickel - Sino - US tariff disturbances persist - Uncertainty about the EU's stainless steel import tariffs has increased - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented - Weak spot trading in the stainless steel market [5] Group 6: Market Data Nickel Market - Closing prices of nickel futures contracts decreased, with the main contract closing at 120,730 yuan/ton, down 1% - Trading volume decreased by 19.97% to 52,899 lots - Open interest decreased by 15.70% to 37,993 lots - Warehouse receipts decreased by 0.28% to 25,464 tons - The basis of the main contract decreased by 3.8% to - 550 yuan/ton [5] Stainless Steel Market - Closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts showed mixed trends, with the main contract closing at 12,890 yuan/ton, unchanged - Trading volume increased by 0.29% to 139,017 lots - Open interest decreased by 4.71% to 123,891 lots - Warehouse receipts decreased by 0.41% to 89,008 tons - The basis of the main contract decreased by 7.04% to 660 yuan/ton [5] Group 7: Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory of nickel: 41,484 tons, an increase of 429 tons - LME nickel inventory: 230,454 tons, an increase of 1,554 tons - Stainless steel social inventory: 897.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons - Nickel pig iron inventory: 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [6] Group 8: Industry News - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [7]