Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with active sectors including semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and consumer goods, while the pharmaceutical sector saw a decline [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index both rose by 0.9%, while the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index fell by 0.8% [1] - Capital inflows continued, with the Hang Seng Technology ETF and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF receiving net inflows of 920 million yuan and 280 million yuan respectively last week [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlighted that the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, which may lead to new policy support for strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace [1] - By 2026, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from the internal catalysts of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with investment opportunities in AI-related sectors and consumer electronics [1]

核心观点 大类资产总览：节前进入持续震荡期。 本周，权益市场仍维持震荡态势，在区间震荡周期中，市场 向上动能不足，资金量能较过往显著下滑，持续低于两万亿。 量能的收缩背后更多显示出场内投资者观望情绪偏重，在年 末政策偏向真空期，叠加节假日偏多带来的风险偏好下移等 因素，节前无力组织上攻或是显而易见的事情。但市场仍维 持在偏高位置的区间震荡，侧面反映出当下市场支撑力度仍 然较强，下行有底，各类热门板块虽无法走出持续性行情， 但在板块轮动下，依然能够维持指数平稳运行。因此，短期 指数的箱体震荡并无需悲观，其反而是市场相对坚挺的表 现。本周债市仍维持震荡态势，债随股走的现象依然存在， 且相对显著。商品市场同样走出震荡行情，贵金属一枝独秀， 但难以抵挡整体大趋势，商品市场依旧仅能维持震荡行情。 证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 短期震荡或是主题 【20251215-20251221】 证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 着相对密切的关系。债市短期或难以走出独立行情，整体走 势或将持续围绕股债跷跷板的趋势进行。 本周 A 股观点：短期震荡或是主题。 本周 A ...

Group 1 - UBS analysts predict that the US stock market will remain tense in 2024 due to investor concerns about missing out on AI gains and fears of a potential bubble, with volatility expected to continue until 2026 [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 14% growth in Chinese corporate earnings in 2024, which could boost stock market performance, with a potential 10% valuation re-rating and a projected 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by 2027 [1] - JPMorgan expects the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates to address concerns over the weak yen, predicting two rate hikes in 2024, reaching a policy rate of 1.25% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nomura's report indicates uncertainty regarding the specific level that would trigger intervention by Japanese authorities, but bold actions may be imminent as the yen strengthens [2] - Danske Bank analysts suggest that the euro may strengthen against the dollar in the medium term due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and stable ECB rates, with a narrowing gap in real interest rates benefiting the euro [2] Group 3 - CICC emphasizes the importance of policy measures to boost consumption, noting that the macroeconomic backdrop has weakened consumer recovery, but signals of support for domestic demand could lead to a turnaround [3] - China Merchants Bank reports that Japan's interest rate hike may exert pressure on global financial conditions, with a potential long-term impact on liquidity and bond markets [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the need to focus on changes in consumer structure for long-term investment, with an emphasis on new products, technologies, channels, and markets [5][6] Group 4 - CITIC Securities anticipates a mild reduction in policy rates in 2026, with a potential decrease of 10 basis points in one to two instances, which could stabilize bank net interest margins [7] - CITIC Securities continues to favor the AI computing sector, noting strong demand for computing power as AI models evolve [8] - CITIC Securities reports that the US CPI has unexpectedly cooled, which may lead to an upward revision of Fed rate cut expectations, positively impacting precious and industrial metal prices [9] Group 5 - China Securities expects listed insurance companies to achieve double-digit growth in core premium income and value in 2026, driven by asset reallocation and a favorable equity market [10] - Huatai Securities suggests continuing to position for a spring market rally, focusing on sectors like AI, batteries, and consumer goods that are expected to improve [11]

周五前有股指期货各大空头集体加仓，后有平潭带动高位股尾盘跳水，周一行情到底怎么走？如果还不 知道下周该怎么交易的请务必听我说完，首先我们来一下股指期货的多空持仓情况，很明显三大指数合 约的净空头都是加仓为主，中信更是直接加仓1953张，所以数据告诉我们机构资金开始逐步转向防御， 这点也很好的解释了为什么周五尾盘平潭跳水以及防御题材上位了，不过需要注意的是，周五晚间老美 科技股集体反弹，明天开盘应该问题不大，倘若高开后未明显下跌，则说明这里依然有承接，行情还将 以震荡为主，否则大盘存在调整风险。 说完大盘再来说说情绪，周四视频的最后，我们特地提醒大家，周五对高位股是个坎，几个核心票仍需 经过市场检验，结果平潭在尾盘的时候就飞流直下，平潭是这轮嵌套周期的龙头，正所谓龙头不A杀， 所以这里先不用去担心它会一跌到底，快则周一慢则周二就能看到平潭止跌，但是这个下跌却起到了吹 哨人的作用，不排除接下来的高位抱团有点想要瓦解的意思，因此对于高位股来说，即便还能新高，其 风险也会逐步大于机会，这样看来或许机构围绕易中天抱团这件事还能继续下去。 板块方面近期呈现几个特点，首先就是消息面占据主导，无论是核电还是智驾，又或者是光模 ...

Macroeconomic Dynamics - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with a neutral forward guidance that aligns with market expectations [1] Satellite Internet - Trump has called for measures to ensure the United States maintains its "space superiority" - The U.S. Space Development Agency is procuring 72 missile warning satellites valued at $3.5 billion - SpaceX is in discussions with banks regarding an IPO - A commercial space development conference will be held on December 24 in Beijing, where a space technology innovation fund will be established - Related ETF: Satellite Industry ETF (on-market: 159218) [1] Robotics - UTree Technology's humanoid robot performed a complex "Webster" flip dance at Wang Leehom's concert in Chengdu, receiving praise from Elon Musk - Related ETF: Robotics Index ETF (on-market: 560770, off-market link: 020482) [1] Consumer Sector - Media continues to highlight the emotional economy and self-indulgent consumption, specifically mentioning the pet economy and trendy card games - Sales on the first day of duty-free closure in Hainan reached 118 million yuan, with a significant increase in New Year flight bookings - Three departments released the "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules" - Related ETF: Consumer ETF (on-market: 510150, off-market link: 217017), Food and Beverage ETF (on-market: 159843) [1] Artificial Intelligence - OpenAI is planning a new funding round targeting $100 billion, involving capital from the Middle East - Ultraman stated that OpenAI will launch a significantly upgraded model in the first quarter of next year - China has made significant breakthroughs in optical computing chips, achieving the first all-optical computing chip that supports large-scale semantic generation models - The National Healthcare Security Administration has clarified that "AI-assisted diagnosis" will be included in the pricing project for pathological diagnosis - Experts believe that 90% of the potential of large models remains untapped - Related ETF: Cloud Computing ETF (on-market: 159890, off-market link: 021716), Software Leaders ETF (on-market: 159899, off-market link: 018385) [1] Market Observation - On December 19, trading volume reached 1.7259 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.4 billion yuan - Following the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the market continued to rebound, with retail, light industry, and environmental protection sectors leading the gains, while the technology sector is poised for growth - The satellite internet sector maintains a core trend, with rotation among consumer, nuclear fusion, and autonomous driving themes - The market is expected to break upward after fluctuating around the 3900-point mark, driven by the technology sector [1]

建银国际认为，2025年底前逢低吸纳，为明年初的春季行情做好准备，并于2026年初逐步加强进攻，可 基础配置高息股，重点关注新质生产力和结构改革主题，精选科技、高端制造、氢能核能等新能源和内 需股(消费及服务业等)。 相关热门ETF： 12月22日早盘，恒生指数高开0.41%，恒生科技指数涨0.61%。盘面上，锂矿股走强，科网股走势分 化，美团涨1.46%。港股消费板块早盘高开后略有震荡，港股消费ETF(513230)现小幅微涨，其持仓股 中，蜜雪集团、布鲁可、珍酒李渡领涨超4%，老铺黄金、泡泡玛特、思摩尔国际、卫龙美味、古茗等 均涨超3%，港股消费板块整体情绪较强。 招商证券表示，港股近期走弱缘于南向资金由于公募基准新规而回流A股和抱团的挤出效应，IPO融资 潮的担忧，解禁高峰的到来，盈利下修与海外流动性扰动。展望后市，随着南向资金回流和抱团行为减 弱，IPO供给压力和解禁金额阶段性缓解，盈利修复，海外流动性释放，港股有望迎来跨年行情。 假期催化+冰雪经济：旅游ETF(562510) 提振内需+低估赛道：食品饮料ETF(515170) 电商龙头+新消费：港股消费ETF(513230) ...

钛媒体App 12月22日消息，华泰证券研报称，上周A股探底回升，主因内外流动性环境改善，宽基ETF 为代表的配置型资金大幅净流入，美国11月通胀不及预期后降息预期升温和日央行鸽派加息也创造了有 利的外部环境。华泰证券认为，经过前期调整明年的春季躁动值得期待，但当前仍处于基本面预期扰动 和政策、经济数据空窗期交织阶段，后续行情斜率抬升的潜在催化包括圣诞节后外资仓位回补、1月中 旬开始的年报预告密集披露期及1月可能的降准。配置上，建议继续布局春季躁动，关注AI链、电池、 有色、部分化工品、军工、大众和服务消费等景气改善方向，此外可适当增配主题性品种和受益于季节 性效应的出口链。（广角观察） ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体上涨，截止到收盘，还在4.2星。 大中小盘股都上涨。 小盘股上涨更多一些。 价值风格略微上涨，成长风格上涨多一些。 港股也整体上涨。港股科技等指数上涨略多。 螺丝钉也汇总了港股指数的估值，供参考，见文章下方图片。 1. 做投资，有的投资者是交易的视角，有的投资者是生意的视角。 交易的视角，会习惯短期买卖。 希望捕捉到每一个较短时间里的价格波动。 或者看到短期涨跌就患得患失。 也有的投资者是亏钱的时候比较安心，看到自己赚钱了，就担心受怕，总想着赶紧卖出去。 但市场短期涨跌很难预测，除了极少数的交易员，大多数人很难依靠短线交易获得稳定收益。 从做生意的视角，看待指数基金投资，会更容易。 2. 巴菲特的老师，格雷厄姆，有关于价值投资的几条基础原则。 其中之一，就是买股票就是买公司。 其实指数基金投资也是如此。 指数基金持有用规则选出来的一篮子股票。 买指数基金，就是买了一篮子公司。 这几年红利指数，盈利平均年化提升约6%上下。 假设估值不变的情况下，这个迷你公司，主要的收益就两块： • 分红（取决于买入时的股息率） 我们假设在10倍市盈率，买了一个红利指数基金，1 ...

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 12月19日，A股三大指数震荡反弹，深成指、创业板指盘中一度涨超1%。截至收盘，上证指数报 3890.45点，涨0.36%；深证成指、创业板指分别涨0.66%、0.49%。沪深北三市全天成交17487亿元，较 上个交易日放量719亿元。 12月19日，日韩市场主要股指收盘上涨。日经225指数上涨1.03%，报49507.21点，本周累计下跌 2.61%。韩国综合指数收盘上涨0.65%，报4020.55点，本周累计下跌3.52%。 12月19日，中证转债指数收涨0.38%，报485.28点。嘉美转债涨20%，华体转债涨13.45%，惠城转债涨 9.53%；博瑞转债跌11.86%，金钟转债跌6.19%，英特转债跌3.35%。 【资金风向标】 Choice数据显示，12月19日，资金净流入额排名前十的个股依次是雪人集团、N优迅、山子高科、航天 发展、中国中免、永辉超市、中国平安、赣锋锂业、航天动力、均胜电子。其中，优迅股份上市首日获 净流入12.95亿元。 【机构观点】 法国巴黎资产管理首席市场策略师Daniel Morris在《2026投资展望》中称，随着人工智能革命持续推动 大规模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is marked by significant achievements and transformative changes in Binzhou, focusing on high-quality development and enhancing various aspects of urban life and economic growth [1]. Economic Growth - The regional GDP is projected to grow from 261.43 billion yuan in 2020 to 340.47 billion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 6% [3]. - The revenue from large-scale industries is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, while total retail sales of consumer goods and total imports and exports are both anticipated to surpass 100 billion yuan [3]. - General public budget revenue and tax revenue are projected to exceed 30 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan, respectively [3]. Income and Employment - Per capita GDP is expected to rise from 66,600 yuan in 2020 to 87,500 yuan in 2024, with an estimated figure of over 90,000 yuan this year [3]. - The income disparity between urban and rural residents is expected to decrease, with the ratio dropping from 2.09 in 2020 to 1.91 in 2024 [3]. - Urban employment has reached 204,300 new jobs, with social insurance coverage rates for basic pension and medical insurance at 97.26% and 97.5%, respectively [4]. Social Services and Quality of Life - The city has implemented five major projects focusing on safety and well-being, establishing itself as the first "Heart-Safe City" in the country [4]. - Public services have improved significantly, with the "Strong School Expansion" initiative achieving the highest coverage in the province and a total investment of 3.67 billion yuan in healthcare facilities [4]. - The city has been recognized for its cultural initiatives, including the establishment of a national first-class museum and a one-stop conflict resolution service with a 99.8% resolution rate [4]. Urban Development and Environment - Urban infrastructure projects have been initiated, with 548 projects underway, contributing to the development of high-speed rail, technology innovation, and health care areas [5]. - The city has created 137 provincial-level beautiful villages and 16 provincial rural revitalization areas, promoting the "Billion Grain City" experience nationwide [5]. - Binzhou has received recognition as a National Forest City, reflecting significant improvements in ecological quality [5].