Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Pay attention to domestic anti-involution policies and overseas equivalent tariff policy expectations, with the main contract reference range of 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - For alumina, short-term prices are expected to remain strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but beware of policy changes in Guinea and the risk of a short squeeze due to the reduction of warehouse receipts. Mid-term, it is recommended to go short on rallies. For aluminum, short-term prices are expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [4] Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Focus on the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and changes in imports. [6] Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Long-term supply is expected to be loose, but terminal consumption still has some resilience in the short term. [9] Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro expectations. [12] Tin - With the gradual resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, there is an expectation of supply-side repair. However, due to the current positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, consider shorting on rallies. [14] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to policy trends and the asset conditions of steel mills. [18] Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong within a range, with the main contract reference range of 68,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton. However, the mid-term upward risk is higher than the downward risk, and pay attention to upstream actions. [21] Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.14% to 79,555 yuan/ton. The spread between refined and scrap copper widened by 53.15% to 1,479 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 1.1349 million tons, while imports increased by 18.74% to 300,500 tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.92% to 20,890 yuan/ton. The import loss of aluminum was 1,427 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Data - In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 3.609 million tons. [4] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy prices in different regions increased by 0.50% - 0.99%. [5] Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 615,000 tons, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 255,000 tons. [6] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 2.24% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The import loss of zinc was 1,706 yuan/ton. [9] Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 36,100 tons. [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.11% to 122,850 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread was -206 dollars/ton. [12] Fundamental Data - In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. [12] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.64% to 267,200 yuan/ton. The import loss of tin was 16,228.79 yuan/ton. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. [14] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B stainless steel coil prices in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.78% - 1.18%. 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price increased by 0.17% to 902 yuan/nickel point. [18] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 mills) decreased by 3.83% to 1.7133 million tons. [18] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.03% to 68,000 yuan/ton. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate widened by 3.13% to 1,650 yuan/ton. [21] Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78,090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93,878 tons. [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [14][15]. Core Insights - The gold market is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts [14]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum is weak, but medium to long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to tighten [14]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term but are supported by long-term supply constraints [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a weekly increase of 1.32%, ranking in the middle among all Shenwan first-level industries [24]. - The top three performing sub-sectors were lithium (+6.19%), silver (+5.44%), and tungsten (+5.23%) [24]. 2. Precious Metals Market Data - London gold price was $3355.10 per ounce, with a slight increase of $3.00 per ounce (0.09%) [34]. - London silver price reached $38.27 per ounce, up by $0.77 per ounce (2.05%) [34]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased to 30.34 million ounces, down by 130,000 ounces [34]. 3. Industrial Metals Data - LME copper closed at $9720 per ton, up by $80 per ton (0.83%) [40]. - SHFE copper closed at 78,410 yuan per ton, down by 160 yuan per ton (-0.20%) [40]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 143,300 tons, down by 0.04 tons from the previous week [40]. 4. Key Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [16]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [16]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation, the non-US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand." The spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - In the short term, the price of the main aluminum contract is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, ranging between 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The price of the main alumina contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton in the coming week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging between 19,400 - 20,200 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions established at previous high levels [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price ranging between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong, with the main contract price ranging between 65,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton. However, there is still a downward risk in the medium term [16]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.82% to 78,660 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose by 70 yuan/ton to 175 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 20 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.3005 million tons, an increase of 18.74% month-on-month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.63% to 20,700 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum rose by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19% month-on-month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22% month-on-month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 35 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.615 million tons, an increase of 1.49% month-on-month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 0.255 million tons, a decrease of 2.30% month-on-month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.95% to 22,320 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, an increase of 6.50% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.0361 million tons, an increase of 34.97% month-on-month [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.87% to 121,500 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,000 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2509 - 2510 contracts increased by 30 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04% month-on-month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% month-on-month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1.37% to 265,500 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts increased by 120 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39% month-on-month; the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% month-on-month [11]. Stainless Steel - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 12,800 yuan/ton. The basis between futures and spot increased by 28.95% to 245 yuan/ton [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2509 - 2510 contracts remained unchanged at -40 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% month-on-month; the import volume was 0.1095 million tons, a decrease of 12.48% month-on-month [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.62% to 66,650 yuan/ton. The basis (based on SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate) decreased by 3.86% to -3,230 yuan/ton [16]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 contracts decreased by 180 yuan/ton to -80 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% month-on-month; the demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15% month-on-month [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend due to political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and ongoing global geo - economic risks [3]. - Copper prices may continue to be strong in the coming week, influenced by positive US retail data, tariff expectations, and favorable tariff policies between the US, Indonesia, and Japan [14]. - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, supported by positive macro factors and low inventories [30]. - Alumina is expected to show a strong trend in the short term, driven by a significant decline in warrants and macro policies [31]. - Zinc prices will be mainly influenced by macro data and market sentiment in the short term, with supply - side disruptions also being a point of concern [60]. - The nickel industry chain may face some disturbances. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - Tin prices will likely continue to fluctuate, with the view that the upward pressure is greater than the downward support in the short term [91]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate will be strong in the market, and the operating rate is expected to increase in the long term [106]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while the polysilicon market needs to be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fundamentals are dominated by Fed policy expectations. Political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and global geo - economic risks support the upward trend of gold prices [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily - view analysis provided, but various price - related data such as SHFE and SGX silver futures and spot price differences are presented [6]. Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a downward - breaking trend before July 17 but were boosted by positive US retail data and tariff expectations. They are expected to be slightly stronger in the coming week [14]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on copper futures and spot prices, import and export profits, and inventory changes [15][19][23]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macro data is positive, and low inventories support prices. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [30]. - **Alumina**: The current production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is tight. Warrants have decreased significantly, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is supported by high scrap - aluminum prices, but demand is weak in the off - season [31]. Zinc - **Price and Market**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term prices are mainly affected by macro data and market sentiment [60]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on zinc futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [61][66][69]. Nickel - **Industry Chain Situation**: The nickel industry chain is affected by factors such as export restrictions, tariffs, and rainfall in the Philippines. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volumes, and inventories [74][76]. Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices are in a volatile trend. In the short term, the upward pressure is greater than the downward support due to the expected inflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand [91]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [92][96][99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: In the short term, the market is strong due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. In the long term, the operating rate is expected to increase as prices rise [106]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on lithium carbonate futures prices, spreads, and inventory changes [107][113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: With positive macro - sentiment, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [115]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations have led to market speculation. Attention should be paid to the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on industrial silicon spot and futures prices, as well as prices of related products in the silicon industry chain [116][119].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation, the non-US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weakening actual demand"; the negotiation process of tariffs will also affect copper prices, with the main contract price expected to range between 77,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - In the short - term, the main contract price of alumina is expected to fluctuate between 3,000 - 3,400, and it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium - term; the short - term price of aluminum is expected to face pressure at high levels, with the main contract price ranging between 20,200 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract price ranging between 19,400 - 20,200 [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 22,000 - 23,500 [7]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 118,000 - 126,000 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, but there may be a significant increase in tin prices driven by market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short positions from previous highs [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging between 12,500 - 13,000 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong, with the main contract price ranging between 65,000 - 72,000; there is a risk of a decline in the medium - term [16]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,660 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 144 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,700 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,248 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,391 yuan/ton [7]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121,500 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,446 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 265,500 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 15,544.01 yuan/ton [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 66,650 yuan/ton, up 2.62% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is not provided [16]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month; imports were 0.3005 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.615 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.255 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. - **Zinc**: In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month; imports were 0.0361 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [9]. - **Tin**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 0.1095 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; demand was 93,815 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month [16]. Market Analysis - **Copper**: Macro factors such as US tariffs and inflation, as well as the supply - demand relationship and inventory levels in the copper market, will affect copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Macro factors, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels in the aluminum market, as well as the impact of Guinea's policies on the bauxite supply, will affect aluminum prices [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum alloy market, especially the weak demand in the terminal automotive industry, will affect aluminum alloy prices [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand relationship in the zinc market, especially the high smelting plant operating rate and the differentiated demand in the primary processing industry, will affect zinc prices [7]. - **Nickel**: Macro factors such as US inflation and tariffs, as well as the supply - demand relationship and inventory levels in the nickel market, will affect nickel prices [9]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand relationship in the tin market, especially the supply recovery of tin ore in Myanmar and the weakening demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries, will affect tin prices [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: Macro factors, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels in the stainless steel market, as well as the price fluctuations of raw materials such as nickel ore and ferronickel, will affect stainless steel prices [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand relationship in the lithium carbonate market, especially the continuous increase in production and the limited increase in demand, as well as the impact of news and capital sentiment, will affect lithium carbonate prices [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move up in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive sentiment supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Likely to trade in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Supply - demand contradictions are emerging, and the price is strengthening, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][18]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Alumina sees capital inflows, with a trend intensity of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Pay attention to lithium - mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - demand de - stocking makes the market resilient, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon has upward momentum due to sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it will be bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke**: After the first round of price hikes, it will be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Coking coal will be slightly bullish, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][55]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price will stabilize in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][60]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental rally may be premature, and beware of sentiment reversal [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Pay attention to the previous high - technical resistance level and guard against a pull - back after a rally [2][5]. - **Corn**: Continues to rebound [2][5]. - **Sugar**: Trades in a range [2][5]. - **Cotton**: Notice market sentiment changes [2][5]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][5]. - **Hogs**: Wait for the end - of - month verification [2][5]. - **Peanuts**: Slightly bullish in a volatile way [2][5]. Others - **Log**: Trades with wide - range fluctuations [2][64].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The gold futures market shows a multi - empty game. Strong US retail data and high Fed rate - cut expectations support the gold price, while a strong dollar and tariff policy uncertainty limit its increase. The gold price remains in a high - level oscillation [3]. - Trump's tariff on copper has both explicit and implicit purposes. In the short term, copper prices may continue to oscillate [14]. - Aluminum prices are affected by macro factors. They may adjust in the short term and are expected to be weak in the long term. Alumina may maintain a high - level oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy has limited upward space [33][34]. - Zinc supply is transitioning from tight to surplus, and demand is weak. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [62]. - Nickel prices may be boosted by factors such as nickel - iron price adjustments and potential formula revisions in Indonesia. Stainless steel and nickel salt have certain trends [75]. - Tin prices are in an oscillating trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, but the downstream demand is weak [107]. - The industrial silicon market may be in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, with high inventory limiting the upward space [116]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold - The fundamentals of SHFE gold futures present a multi - empty game. Strong US retail data and high Fed rate - cut expectations support the gold price, while a strong dollar and tariff policy uncertainty limit its increase. The market is short - term focused on US consumer confidence and inflation expectation data [3]. - Various data charts show the trends of SHFE and COMEX gold prices, gold - dollar index, gold - US Treasury real interest rate, etc. [4][8] Copper - Trump's tariff on copper has explicit and implicit purposes. The short - term copper price may oscillate. The closing price last week can be used as a short - term reference [14]. - The latest prices of SHFE copper futures show different changes. The spot prices of different copper sources also have various fluctuations, and the import profit and loss, processing fees, etc. are also presented [15][22][26] Aluminum - Aluminum supply is approaching the industry limit, demand is in the off - season, and macro - level tariff policies and Fed policy uncertainties affect prices. In the short term, it may adjust, and in the long term, it is expected to be weak [33]. - Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and it may maintain a high - level oscillation. Casting aluminum alloy has cost support but weak demand [34]. - The latest prices of SHFE aluminum futures and related spreads are provided, along with spot prices and basis data [35][42][45] Zinc - Zinc supply is transitioning from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. The market is short - term focused on macro data and supply disturbances [62]. - The latest prices of SHFE zinc futures and LME zinc, along with spot prices and spreads, are presented [63][68] Nickel - The second - phase nickel ore benchmark price in July decreased slightly. Nickel - iron prices rose slightly, and factors such as Indonesian policy adjustments may boost nickel prices [75]. - The latest prices of SHFE nickel futures and related data on stainless steel futures are provided, along with information on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profits [76][82][86] Tin - Tin prices are in an oscillating trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - The latest prices of SHFE tin futures and spot prices are presented, along with inventory data [93][97][100] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, but the downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [107]. - The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices of various lithium products are provided, along with inventory data [108][111][114] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market may be in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, with high inventory limiting the upward space. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt changes [116]. - The latest spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and futures prices are provided, along with data on related products in the silicon industry chain [117][120][128]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the non-US region's electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt copper prices. The main focus is on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - The price of alumina is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,950 - 3,250 this week. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a squeeze caused by policy changes in Guinea and the reduction of warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is currently at a high level but is expected to face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances. The reference price range for the main contract this week is 19,950 - 20,750 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and fluctuate mainly, with the main reference range of 19,400 - 20,200. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the zinc price center may move down. The main reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high levels [12]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000. The overall supply may decrease, but the demand is weak and the inventory reduction is slow [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong in a certain range, with the main reference range of 63,000 - 70,000. However, there is still downward pressure in the medium term. The focus is on the upstream operation actions [19]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,020 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is - 64.49 dollars/ton, down 16.22 dollars/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 219.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% from the previous month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,570 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,286 yuan/ton, an increase of 120.1 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 monthly spread is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49% from the previous month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 monthly spread is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% from the previous month [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1.35% from the previous day. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price (ex - factory price) is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04% from the previous month. The import volume is 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% from the previous month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread is - 108 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39% from the previous month. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% from the previous month [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.00% from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) in the current period is 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The import volume is 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% from the previous month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is - 3,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.48% from the previous day [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% from the previous month. The demand was 83,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous month [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rumor of Powell's dismissal caused market turmoil, with the stock market initially falling and then rising, the dollar and bond yields dropping, and gold prices rising. Trump denied the rumor but hinted that dismissal could be possible under justifiable reasons [8][23]. - The market is paying attention to various commodities. For example, polysilicon may see its futures price hit new highs due to policy expectations, while styrene remains a short - allocation target. Natural rubber can be considered for long positions on dips due to weather disturbances, and cotton futures are technically strong but face some upward - limiting factors [9][11][12][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver to break through and rise. The trend intensities for gold and silver are both 1. The rumor of Powell's dismissal led to a rise in gold prices [17][23][25]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0. Macro events include the Powell dismissal rumor, and micro events involve mining investments and import data [17][27][29]. - **Zinc**: It is under pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's potential response are the main news [17][30][31]. - **Lead**: There may be a limit to its downside. The trend intensity is 0. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's response are the key news [17][33][34]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening. The trend intensity is - 1. The market is affected by macro events such as the Powell dismissal rumor and Trump's tariff plans [17][36][39]. - **Aluminum**: It faces upward pressure. Alumina requires attention on the impact of the ore end, and cast aluminum alloy oscillates within a range. The trend intensities for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [17][40][41]. - **Nickel**: News affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and the macro situation. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are news about nickel supply and production in Canada, Indonesia, etc. [17][42][46]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Lithium - For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts continue to decline, and attention should be paid to substantial changes in supply. The trend intensity is 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has increased, and the new energy vehicle market shows certain trends [17][47][50]. 3.2.2 Silicon - related - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to the upward space. Polysilicon: Market news continues to ferment. The trend intensities for both are 1. The US has launched a national security investigation on polysilicon imports [17][51][53]. 3.2.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0. The Central Urban Work Conference is an important macro event [17][54]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are data on steel production, exports, and inventory [17][56][60]. - **Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price and production - related news [17][61][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price, inventory, and position - related data [17][65][67]. 3.2.4 Energy - **Thermal Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend intensity is 0. There are price and position - related data [17][69][72]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The futures price has reached a new high for the year. It is technically strong in the short term, but factors such as poor downstream profits and new cotton harvest expectations may limit the upward movement. The trend intensity is not explicitly stated [14][17][20]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to weather disturbances, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. The supply in Thailand is affected by rain, and the domestic production areas are also affected by weather to some extent [12][13].