1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given documents. 2. Core Views 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads, including F, H, IC, and IM. It also shows the cross - period spreads and cross - variety ratios [1]. 2.2 Bond Futures - The report provides the basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, along with their latest values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2]. 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold: After a callback, it seeks support at the 20 - day moving average. Short - term trends are volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. Long positions can take profits at high prices or sell out - of - the - money call options for protection. - Silver: The long - term upward logic of supply inventory shortage and strong investment demand remains valid, but short - term price increases are restricted. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value. - Platinum and Palladium: Supported by macro - financial attributes and a tight supply pattern, but dragged down by gold and silver, they maintain a weak shock in the short term. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [3]. 2.4 Container Shipping - The Middle East conflict has affected shipping routes. MSK has opened the freight rate for March at $2200, corresponding to around 1700 points on the disk. After a continuous sharp rise, the futures price has a premium over the current freight rate. It is expected to have larger fluctuations and operate in a shock. Investors should participate rationally and hold positive spreads [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: F: - 18.69, up 52.80% from the previous day, 25.40% in the 1 - year percentile and 47.10% in the all - time percentile; H: - 1.45, up 0.56, 56.50% in the 1 - year percentile and 47.10% in the all - time percentile; IC: - 53.57, down 24.03, 48.30% in the 1 - year percentile and 16.40% in the all - time percentile; IM: - 41.12, down 10.80, 25.00% in the 1 - year percentile and 39.10% in the all - time percentile [1]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: For example, the next - month - to - current - month spread of F is - 14.00, down 3.40, 42.20% in the 1 - year percentile and 31.10% in the all - time percentile [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: For example, IC/IF is 1.7835, down 0.0069, 94.60% in the 1 - year percentile and 99.00% in the all - time percentile [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures - **Basis**: TS: 1.4270, down 0.0291, 18.60% since listing; TF: 1.3913, up 0.0399, 34.00% since listing; T: 1.4327, up 0.0624, 48.90% since listing; TL: 1.3325, up 0.5289, 39.80% since listing [2]. - **Cross - Period Spreads**: For example, the current - season - to - next - season spread of TF is 0.0050, up 0.0250, 23.20% since listing [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For example, TS - TF is - 3.6130, up 0.0140, 6.60% since listing [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: AU2604: 1152.00 yuan/g, down 1.06, - 0.09%; AG2604: 21639 yuan/10g, down 215, - 0.98%; PT2606: 563.05, up 0.45, 0.08%; PD2606: 428.00 yuan/g, down 5.80, - 1.34% [3]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold: 5093.30, down 58.30, - 1.13%; COMEX silver: 82.52, down 1.25, - 1.49%; NYMEX platinum: 2128.20, down 37.60, - 1.74%; NYMEX palladium: 1650.00, down 48.50, - 2.86% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold: 5084.69, down 35.85, - 0.70%; London silver: 82.26, down 1.28, - 1.54%; Spot platinum: 2120.10, down 46.90, - 2.16%; Spot palladium: 1629.50, down 38.00, - 2.28% [3]. - **Differences**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold: - 3.44, down 3.33, 46.10%; Silver TD - Shanghai silver: - 571, down 278, 60.60% [3]. - **Price Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver: 61.72, up 0.22, 0.36%; SHFE gold/silver: 53.24, up 0.48, 0.90% [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield: 4.13, up 0.04, 1.0%; 2 - year US Treasury yield: 3.57, up 0.03, 0.8%; 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield: 1.82, up 0.02, 1.1%; US dollar index: 99.04, up 0.25, 0.25%; Offshore RMB exchange rate: 6.9184, up 0.0238, 0.35% [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: SHFE gold inventory: 105033, unchanged, 0.00%; SHFE silver inventory: 272721 kg, down 22102, - 7.50%; COMEX gold inventory: 33100294, up 29808, 0.18%; COMEX silver inventory: 351341925, down 877946, - 0.25% [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: MAERSK: $2240/FEU, up 30, 1.36%; CMA: $4193/FEU, unchanged, 0.00%; MSC: $2740/FEU, up 100, 3.79%; ONE: $2735/FEU, unchanged, 0.00%; OOCL: $4030/FEU, unchanged, 0.00% [5]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route): 1463.40, down 110.1, - 7.00%; SCFIS (US West route): 1045.08, down 66.9, - 6.02%; SCFI composite index: 1333.11, up 81.6, 6.52% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2604 (main contract): 1768.0, down 141.5, - 7.41%; Basis (main contract): - 304.6, up 141.5, - 31.72% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply: 3388.34 ATEU, unchanged, 0.00%; Port punctuality rate (Shanghai): 38.18, down 3.63, - 8.68%; Port berthing situation (Shanghai): 351.00, down 3.00, - 0.85% [5]. - **Overseas Economy**: Eurozone composite PMI: 51.90, up 0.60, 1.17%; EU consumer confidence index: - 11.70, unchanged, 0.00%; US manufacturing PMI index: 52.40, down 0.20, - 0.38% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The global soybean supply remains in a loose pattern, and the demand outlook for US soybeans is unclear, causing the US soybean futures price to decline. The domestic soybean meal price is supported by the cost but restricted by weak demand. In the first quarter, the domestic soybean import volume decreases quarterly, and the supply pressure will ease. The near - term market needs to focus on the loading rhythm of US and Brazilian soybeans and the post - festival auction of imported soybeans. In the long - term, due to the bumper harvest of South American soybeans, the domestic price is expected to decline following the imported cost [2]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit a biofuel blending quota proposal for 2026 to the White House, which is expected to boost soybean oil demand. The production of Malaysian palm oil in February is estimated to decrease by 16.24%, and the export volume is expected to decline. Although the export slows down in February, due to seasonal production cuts, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in February is expected to continue to decline. The spill - over effect of the sharp rise in crude oil still exists, but the sentiment brought by recent geopolitical conflicts has cooled down, and the fundamentals of the oil and fat market lack the driving force for active upward movement. It is expected that the oil and fat market will fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8370, 9002, 9486, 2829, 2363, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 20, 8, 22, - 7, - 17, and 26, with percentage changes of 0.24%, 0.09%, - 3.15%, - 0.25%, - 0.71%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09, M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 are 18, 32, - 178, - 682, 857, 175, - 58, 46, 587, 1.25, 2.82, and 5366 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4070 (ringgit/ton), 1166 (cents/bushel), 63.47 (cents/pound), and 309 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were 19.0, - 5.3, 0.6, and - 5.8, with percentage changes of 0.47%, - 0.45%, 0.89%, and - 1.84% respectively [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil, Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal, Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal, Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 8650, 8630, 9000, 9000, 10110, 9860, 2990, 3050, 2510, 2480, 7200, 7300 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis values of the above - mentioned products are 280, 260, - 70, - 70, 621, 371, 147, 207, 192, 162, - 696, - 596 respectively. The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal are - 170, 1470, 580 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profit - The current values of import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 238, - 427, - 17, - 325, 246, 233 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 26,255, 0, 625, 38,829, 1,411, 900 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange indicates that last week's rainfall improved the growth conditions of Argentine soybeans and corn. The exchange expects the 2025/26 soybean production to be 48.5 million tons. Reuters' analysts predict that the 2025/26 Argentine soybean production will be 48.11 million tons, with an estimated range of 47 - 49.5 million tons [2]. - AgRural lowers the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production from 181 million tons to 178 million tons. As of February 28, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate is 41.7%, slower than 48.4% in the same period last year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, inflation expectations, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Gold Market - **Market Performance**: International gold prices fell 1.12% to $5082 per ounce, and international silver prices fell 1.4% to $82.2 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: With the military action between the US, Israel and Iran entering the sixth day, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, causing a temporary 8% surge in WTI crude oil. The initial margin for COMEX 100 gold futures was reduced from 9% to 7%, and for COMEX 5000 silver futures from 18% to 14%. Domestic gold ETFs had a significant inflow of 3.1 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold; reduce long positions in silver and wait and see [1]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The short - term focus is on the US - Iran war. The expectation of stagflation due to rising oil prices and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations put pressure on metals. The large amount of copper delivered in London and the rapid accumulation of global visible inventories suppressed copper prices [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a buying point after stabilization [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.08% to 24,815 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the price of electrolytic aluminum was under pressure at night, there is still upward potential due to the systemic risk of the global aluminum supply chain caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.65% to 2800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants had both maintenance and复产, and the operating capacity continued to decline. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate due to the intertwined influence of factors such as new capacity expansion expectations and the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [2][3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8565 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59%. The trading volume decreased by 31.81%, and the position decreased by 7.36% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of blast furnaces in operation increased by 19 this week, with an operating rate of 25%. Both weekly warehouse receipts and social inventories increased slightly. The production of polysilicon in February was within 80,000 tons, and it is expected to reach nearly 90,000 tons in March after resuming work [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the actual start - up of large factories. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 8600 yuan. If the duration of large - factory production cuts is limited, consider short - selling at high prices [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 155,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.8% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) increased by $25 to $2200 per ton. The SMM lithium carbonate price increased by 2000 yuan to 156,000 yuan/ton. The weekly production increased by 768 tons to 22,590 tons. SMM expects the production in March to be 106,390 tons, an 8.7% increase from January [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The low - inventory situation in the short - term off - season supports the price to fluctuate around 150,000 yuan. The subsequent upward driving force depends on the prosperity of the new - energy vehicle terminal consumption [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 42,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19%. The trading volume decreased by 19.89%, and the position decreased by 1.94% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production remained flat, and the industry inventory increased by 3.5% week - on - week. The warehouse receipts increased significantly last week. The prices of downstream products were stable, and some products of JinkoSolar will increase in price by 30 - 40% [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by factors such as the reduction of spot quotes by leading factories, the expectation of resuming production in March, and the unresolved position limit, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly between 40,000 - 53,000 yuan [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated weakly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The US - Iran conflict and concerns about AI narratives dominate the market. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the resumption of production in Wa State is within expectations. The domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 418 tons, and the premium of deliverable brands is 1000 - 1500 yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a buying point after stabilization [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand for rebar increased by 180,000 tons to 980,000 tons, and the production increased by 80,000 tons to 1.73 million tons. The inventory accumulation of steel products is slowing down seasonally, but the inventory level is at a record high. The supply - demand of building materials and hot - rolled coils shows different trends [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try short - selling rebar in the short - term. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 yuan [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 760.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the production restrictions during the Two Sessions, the molten iron production decreased by 57,000 tons to 2.28 million tons. The port inventory of iron ore increased by 30,000 tons to 179 million tons. The steel mill profit is poor, and the blast - furnace production may decrease slightly. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the inventory of mainstream iron ore at ports is at a historical low [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for I05 is 750 - 780 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1091.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the production restrictions during the Two Sessions, the molten iron production decreased by 57,000 tons to 2.28 million tons. The first round of coke price increase was implemented before the Spring Festival, and now steel mills are considering a price cut. The steel mill profit is poor, and the increase in blast - furnace production may be slow. The port customs clearance volume remains high, and the inventory at different links shows a differentiated pattern [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try short - selling coking coal in the short - term. The reference range for JM05 is 1050 - 1110 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, and Brazil is in the middle of the harvest season. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is also strong. Overall, the supply - demand of US soybeans is expected to improve, but the global supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the demand for US soybeans and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and pay attention to policies and South American production [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices were strong, and spot prices continued to rise [8]. - **Fundamentals**: More than 60% of the grain has been sold, and the selling pressure is not large, but the selling intention is not strong, and the progress is slow. The inventory at ports and downstream is low, and downstream industries are in losses. The spot price is still dominated by the production area [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The effective supply is limited, and downstream replenishment is expected. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [8]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, MPOA estimates that the production in Malaysia in February decreased by 16% month - on - month, but it is expected to enter the seasonal production - increasing period in March. On the demand side, ITS shows that the export in February decreased by 21% month - on - month. The market estimates that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 6.5% to 2.63 million tons [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fats and oils market is in a weak cycle, but the recent sharp rise in crude oil has led to a rebound. Pay attention to the later crude oil price and production in the production area [8]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices fluctuated and fell overnight, and international crude oil futures prices fluctuated strongly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, as of the week ending February 26, the net export sales of US cotton in 2025/2026 increased by 150,400 bales, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The cotton export from Brazil in February was 270,000 tons, a 2% decrease year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated. The sharp increase in crude oil prices led to an increase in the prices of chemical fiber products. The PMI in China in February was 49%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a price range of 15,000 - 15,600 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to fall [8]. - **Fundamentals**: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand. Although the catering and school sectors have some purchasing demand after resuming work and school, the impact on egg prices is expected to be limited. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to remain low [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Hog futures prices were weak, and spot prices decreased slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonally, the slaughter volume of the breeding side will increase as the upstream and downstream resume work. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The futures and spot prices are expected to be weak. Pay attention to the recent slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract rose slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 7400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract weakened. The overseas market price rose slightly, and the import window was closed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there are no new installations in the first half of the year, and some existing installations plan to reduce production or shut down due to the expected shortage of crude oil caused by the US - Iran conflict. The import volume is expected to decrease. On the demand side, downstream industries are gradually resuming work, and the demand is improving month - on - month. March and April are the peak seasons for agricultural film demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the inventory in the industrial chain is slightly decreasing, and the basis is strengthening. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - term, as the US - Iran situation eases and new installations are put into operation, the supply - demand pressure will increase, and it is recommended to short at high prices [10]. PVC - **Market Performance**: v05 closed at 5016, an increase of 0.9% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, PVC prices continued to rebound. The domestic supply is stable, with an expected production of 2.148 million tons in January, a 0.49% month - on - month increase and a 2.46% year - on - year increase. The downstream factories are gradually resuming work. The real - estate market was weak in December, with a 25% year - on - year decrease in new construction and completion. The social inventory reached a new high [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is balanced and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. Overseas costs are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX was $1055 per ton, and the East China spot price of PTA was 5800 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 34 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX remains at a historical high. Some domestic and overseas PX installations are under maintenance. The supply of PTA has increased to a high level. The polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the comprehensive inventory pressure is not large. The profit of polyester products has improved [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: If the geopolitical conflict continues to ferment, it will affect the raw material supply. The PX long - spread position can be continued to hold, and it is recommended to wait and see for PTA due to the inventory accumulation pattern [10]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1055, an increase of 0.6% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices are under pressure due to high inventory. The supply has decreased significantly, and there are plans to resume production in North China recently. The inventory has accumulated again. The real - estate market was weak in December, with a 25% year - on - year decrease in new construction and completion [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract rose slightly yesterday. The East China spot price of PP was 7450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was strong. The overseas market price rose slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the new installations in the first half of the year are reduced, and some installations plan to reduce production or shut down due to the shortage of raw materials caused by the US - Iran conflict. The supply pressure is significantly reduced, and the export window is open. On the demand side, the downstream is gradually resuming work, and the demand is improving month - on - month [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the inventory in the industrial chain is decreasing, the basis is strengthening, and the demand is improving month - on - month. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, as the US - Iran situation eases and new installations are put into operation, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly but the contradiction will still be large. It is recommended to short at high prices [11]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG was 4132 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 31 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In 2025, China imported about 1.05 million tons of MEG from Iran, accounting for 15% of imports and about 4% of apparent supply. From the Middle East, it imported 4.74 million tons, accounting for 61% of imports and about 17% of apparent supply. In March, MEG installations will have more maintenance, and polyester demand will pick up, leading to inventory reduction. However, the current social inventory is at a historical high [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The government work report in 2026 emphasizes high - quality development, with an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, and focuses on stabilizing the real estate market, developing new - quality productivity, and improving people's livelihoods [7]. - Geopolitical conflicts have a significant impact on the futures market, affecting prices and trends in various sectors such as energy, chemicals, and shipping [9][10][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Gold and Silver - Gold is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and silver shows a volatile pattern. The trend intensities of both are 1 [15][19][21]. Copper - Spot premium narrowing restricts price decline. The trend intensity is 0 [15][22][23]. Zinc - Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [15][25]. Lead - Overseas inventory reduction restricts price decline. The trend intensity is 0 [15][28]. Tin - Tin is in an oscillatory adjustment. The trend intensity is 0 [15][31]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum experiences a slight correction, alumina moves sideways, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of all are 0 [15][35]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum continues to be weak, and palladium has low - frequency data and oscillates at a low level. The trend intensity of platinum is 0, and that of palladium is - 1 [15][37]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel, the Indonesian mine situation is evolving, and in March, speculative attributes need attention. For stainless steel, the contradiction at the mine end increases marginally, and the cost support center moves up. The trend intensities of both are 0 [15][41][42]. Energy Coal - Coking coal and coke are in wide - range oscillations, and the trend intensities of both are 0. Thermal coal has weak market sentiment, with short - term prices fluctuating in a narrow range, and its trend intensity is - 1 [15][69][70][74]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil maintains a retracement trend with high volatility in the short term, and low - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak adjustment. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [15][145]. Chemicals PX, PTA, and MEG - PX, PTA, and MEG are all in high - level oscillatory markets. The trend intensities of all are 1. For PX, geopolitical conflicts raise costs; for PTA, the opening load increases; for MEG, supply tightens [15][80][85][86]. Rubber - Rubber shows a weakening oscillation. The trend intensity is - 1 [15][89]. Synthetic Rubber - The center of synthetic rubber moves up. The trend intensity is 1 [15][92]. LLDPE and PP - LLDPE has a continuous expectation of cracking supply contraction and requires short - term high - level attention to geopolitics. PP has a continuously strong C3 raw material, and PDH device reduction continues. The trend intensities of both are 2 [15][96]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is supported by strong export expectations. The trend intensity is 1 [15][101]. Pulp - Pulp moves in an oscillatory manner. The trend intensity is 0 [15][106]. Glass - The price of glass raw materials is stable. The trend intensity is 0 [15][113]. Methanol - Methanol is in a high - level oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [15][116]. Urea - Urea moves in an oscillatory manner. The trend intensity is 0 [15][122]. Styrene - Styrene shows a strong - side oscillation. The trend intensity is 1 [15][126]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The trend intensity is 0 [15][128]. LPG and Propylene - LPG is strongly affected by short - term geopolitics, and propylene has geopolitical disturbances at the cost end with a tight fundamental situation. The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 1 [15][133]. PVC - PVC is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [15][142]. Agriculture Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil shows a short - term strong performance, and soybean oil may break upward supported by the cost of US soybeans. The trend intensities of both are 1 [15][170][176]. Soybean Meal and Soybeans - Soybean meal rebounds and oscillates, and soybeans have a stable - to - strong spot price with an oscillatory adjustment in the futures market. The trend intensities of both are 0 [15][177]. Corn - Corn shows a strong - side oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [15][180]. Sugar - Sugar moves in a range - bound manner. The trend intensity is 0 [15][184]. Cotton - Cotton is waiting for new driving forces. The trend intensity is 1 [15][188]. Eggs - Eggs maintain an oscillatory pattern. The trend intensity is 0 [15][192]. Hogs - Hogs face difficult - to - solve inventory pressure and continue to be weak. The trend intensity is - 1 [15][195]. Peanuts - Peanuts move in an oscillatory manner. The trend intensity is 0 [15][200]. Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The short - term market is greatly affected by geopolitical emotions. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [15][9][154][158]. Fibers Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - Both staple fiber and bottle chips are short - term strong due to unresolved geopolitical risks. The trend intensities of both are 1 [15][160]. Paper Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper is recommended for a wait - and - see approach. The trend intensity is 0 [15][162].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 6, 2026, precious metals weakened. The decline in precious metals may be closely related to the significant increase in US Treasury yields. In the context of the ongoing tense situation in the Middle East, US inflation data has not declined. The market is worried about the inflationary pressure brought by the rise in global crude oil prices, leading to an upward adjustment of long - term interest rate expectations and a downward adjustment of near - term interest rate cut expectations. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the increase in the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond have increased the market's preference for liquidity, which has temporarily suppressed precious metals. The large - scale selling plan of the Polish central bank to sell gold reserves to raise about $13 billion for defense spending also pushed down the price of gold in the short term [2]. - The CME's adjustment of gold and silver futures margins may attract capital inflows. The initial margin of COMEX 100 gold futures has been reduced from 9% to 7%, and that of COMEX 5000 silver futures has been reduced from 18% to 14%, effective as of the close on March 6, 2026. In February, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of $5.3 billion, achieving continuous capital inflows for nine months and setting the strongest annual start on record. The total global gold asset management scale (AUM) reached a record high of $701 billion, and the global holding volume reached 4,171 tons [3]. - In the context of the ongoing tense situation in the Middle East, the rise in crude oil prices has pushed up the market's inflation expectations. Coupled with the fact that US inflation data has not declined, the market has adjusted long - term interest rate expectations upwards and near - term interest rate cut expectations downwards, which has promoted an increase in the preference for capital liquidity and temporarily suppressed precious metals. However, the subsequent reduction of gold and silver margins by the CME may attract capital inflows, and the market may experience a volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for now. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1,100 - 1,200 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 20,500 - 22,000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 1.35% to 1,135.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21,305.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.95% to $5,085.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.03% to $82.33 per ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.13%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.06 [2]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was $5,085.70 per ounce, a decrease of 1.28% from the previous day; the trading volume was not available; the position volume increased by 3.22% to 420,200 lots; the inventory increased by 0.18% to 1,030 tons [7]. - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was $5,148.55 per ounce, an increase of 2.28% from the previous day; the closing price of the active contract was 1,152.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.09%; the trading volume decreased by 44.15% to 327,400 lots; the position volume increased by 1.52% to 290,400 lots; the inventory remained unchanged at 105.03 tons; the settled capital increased by 1.43% to 53.528 billion yuan; the closing price of the short - pays - long contract was 1,148.56 yuan, a decrease of 0.38% [7]. - **SHFE Gold**: The closing price of the active contract, trading volume, position volume, inventory, settled capital, and the closing price of the short - pays - long contract all had corresponding changes, with the position volume increasing by 1.52% to 290,400 lots and the inventory remaining unchanged at 105.03 tons [7]. - **AuT + D**: The trading volume decreased by 45.80% to 50.77 tons, and the position volume increased by 1.45% to 241.88 tons [7]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was $83.77 per ounce, an increase of 1.78% from the previous day; the position volume decreased by 4.59% to 125,500 lots; the inventory decreased by 0.83% to 10,955 tons [7]. - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was $86.79 per ounce, an increase of 6.74% from the previous day; the closing price of the active contract was 21,639.00 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 0.98%; the trading volume decreased by 16.91% to 1,190,700 lots; the position volume decreased by 0.04% to 504,200 lots; the inventory decreased by 7.50% to 272.72 tons; the settled capital decreased by 1.03% to 29.457 billion yuan; the closing price of the short - pays - long contract decreased by 2.29% to 21,068.00 yuan [7]. - **SHFE Silver**: The closing price of the active contract, trading volume, position volume, inventory, settled capital, and the closing price of the short - pays - long contract all had corresponding changes, with the inventory decreasing by 7.50% to 272.72 tons [7]. - **AgT + D**: The trading volume decreased by 20.99% to 431.93 tons, and the position volume decreased by 0.38% to 2,966.324 tons [7]. 3.3 ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: In February, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of $5.3 billion. The total global gold asset management scale (AUM) reached a record high of $701 billion, and the global holding volume reached 4,171 tons. The holdings of various gold ETFs such as SPDR US, iShare US, GBS UK, etc. had different changes on March 5, 2026 [3][66]. - **Silver ETFs**: The closing price of silver ETFs was $74.27, a decrease of 1.42% from the previous day. The holdings of various silver ETFs such as SLV US, ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, etc. also had different changes on March 5, 2026 [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are bullish, with the main contract of urea showing a strong and volatile trend. The daily production is at a high level year - on - year, industrial demand is weak but reserve demand is good, agricultural demand has room to rise in the near term, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that the trend of UR today will be volatile [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, the daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is still at a historical high. Industrial demand is weak overall but has a recovery expectation. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased, while that of melamine has decreased. Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season, and comprehensive inventories have accumulated. The international price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. On February 12, the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association issued a statement on the market speculation of the urea guidance price, emphasizing that the medium - and long - term urea price should be stable. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is 36, and the premium/discount ratio is 1.9%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive inventory of UR is 1.35 million tons (+154,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the main contract of UR is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main contract of UR is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to be volatile and strong. The daily production is at a high level year - on - year, industrial demand is weak but reserve demand is good, agricultural demand has room to rise in the near term, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that the trend of UR today will be volatile [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season, and overseas prices are continuously strengthening [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The daily production is at a historical high [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. - **Main Risk Point**: Changes in export policies [5] Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1850 (-10), Shandong spot is 1880 (0), Henan spot is 1850 (0), and FOB China is 3315 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 05 contract is 1814 (-8), the basis is 36 (-2), UR01 is 1805 (17), UR05 is 1814 (-8), and UR09 is 1829 (17) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 1275 (0), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.35 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 1.176 million tons, and UR port inventory is 174,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

报告日期：2026 年 3 月 6 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：中东局势动荡不安，继续关注能化板块投资机会 政府工作报告提出，2026 年发展主要预期目标是：经济增长 4.5%-5%，在实际工 作中努力争取更好结果；城镇调查失业率 5.5%左右，城镇新增就业 1200 万人以 上；居民消费价格涨幅 2%左右；继续实施更加积极的财政政策。今年赤字率拟 按 4%左右安排，赤字规模 5.89 万亿元、比上年增加 2300 亿元。拟发行超长期 特别国债 1.3 万亿元，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作等。期市夜盘收盘， 国内商品期货主力合约涨跌互现。涨幅方面，原油、烧碱、纯苯等涨幅居前。跌 幅方面，沪银、沪铝、沪金等跌幅较大。 重点品种：原油、甲醇 原油：SC 夜盘上涨 1.25%。以色列和美国军队对中东某国境内多个目标发动了袭 击，这导致伊朗在波斯湾地区进行了报复性打击。随着冲突蔓延至黎巴嫩，局势 进一步紧张。伊朗已对霍尔木兹海峡地区的能源基础设施和油轮发动袭击，该海 峡是全球五分之一的石油和液化天然气运输通道。伊拉克作为 OPEC 第二大产油 国，将其日产量削减了近 150 万桶。由于危机导致无法出口的原 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 5, 2026, equity index futures rose, and most commodities showed high performances, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. Geopolitical tensions have a significant impact on the prices of crude oil and related chemical products, and the future price trends of these products are expected to be volatile due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation [11][13]. - The Chinese government has set the economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5% - 5%, and plans to issue RMB 1.3 trillion worth of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, with a deficit ratio of around 4%. These policies are expected to have an impact on the macro - economic and financial markets [39][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 5, equity index futures rose (IF rose 0.9% and IM rose 0.8%), and most commodities performed well, with energy & chemicals leading the increase. In CGB futures, TL dropped 0.05% and TF dropped 0.03%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Sodium Hydroxide (up 7.0% with open interest decreasing 5.8% month - on - month), Crude Oil (up 6.4% with open interest decreasing 10.9% month - on - month), and Benzene (up 6.2% with open interest increasing 8.8% month - on - month). The top three decliners were LPG (down 3.6% with open interest decreasing 3.8% month - on - month), Methanol (down 3.5% with open interest decreasing 12.5% month - on - month), and SCFIS(Europe) (down 3.4% with open interest decreasing 5.0% month - on - month) [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On March 5, the crude oil main contract hit the upward limit at one point but pulled back in the late trading session, closing up 6.4% at 664.1 yuan/barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories continued seasonal build - up at a slower pace. Geopolitical tensions led to reduced supply, and the future price is expected to fluctuate [17][18][20]. - **Benzene**: On March 5, the main contract of Benzene rose 6.2% to 7251 yuan/ton. Crude oil price fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions are the key driver of benzene prices. Supply is affected by crude oil swings, and refineries may cut operating rates. Demand is affected by styrene maintenance and restart news. Although inventory pressure remains, Q1 fundamentals have improved month - on - month from Q4 [24][25][27]. - **Ethenylbenzene**: On March 5, the main contract of Ethenylbenzene rose 6.0% to 8656 yuan/ton. Geopolitical tensions boosted crude oil, which in turn lifted ethenylbenzene prices. Supply is expected to drop due to plant maintenance, and demand is recovering after the Spring Festival. It is expected to destock in March [31][32][34]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro - The Government Work Report stated that the main expected development goals for 2026 are economic growth of 4.5% - 5%, the urban surveyed unemployment rate kept at around 5.5% and over 12 million new urban jobs created, the consumer price index rising by about 2%, a basic balance of international payments, grain output reaching approximately 1.4 trillion jin, and a reduction of around 3.8% in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP. The deficit ratio is projected at around 4% for the year, with a deficit scale of RMB 5.89 trillion, an increase of RMB 230 billion over the previous year. RMB 1.3 trillion worth of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be issued [39][40]. 3.2.2 Trading - On March 5, 2026, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) adjusted the price limits and trading margin ratios for crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil futures contracts [40][44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Zheng sugar has been oscillating upwards after the Spring Festival, with the K-line standing above the long-term moving average. Technically, it shows a trend of moving out of the right-side market. Downstream enterprises start to replenish their inventories after the festival, market demand begins to recover, crude oil prices rise, and the price of sugar-made ethanol increases, which indirectly supports the price of white sugar. The center of white sugar has shifted upwards, and a short-term oscillating and bullish mindset is maintained [5][8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Datagro predicts a sugar shortage of 2.68 million tons in the 26/27 sugar season. ISO expects a global sugar market surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics predicts that the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season will shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 million tons in the 25/26 season. Green Pool expects a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 190,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,380, and the basis is 50 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of January in the 25/26 sugar season, the industrial inventory was 3.99 million tons [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, showing a bullish trend [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Zheng sugar has been oscillating upwards after the Spring Festival, with the K-line standing above the long-term moving average. Technically, it shows a trend of moving out of the right-side market. Downstream enterprises start to replenish their inventories after the festival, market demand begins to recover, crude oil prices rise, and the price of sugar-made ethanol increases, which indirectly supports the price of white sugar. The center of white sugar has shifted upwards, and a short-term oscillating and bullish mindset is maintained [5][8]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Different Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 25/26 and 26/27 seasons. For example, ISO expects a surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 season; Green Pool expects a surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season [4][8]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales Data**: As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 190,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - **Sugar Planting and Yield Data**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, data on sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields per hectare, and sugar production are provided. For example, in 2025/26, the sugar production is expected to be 11.7 million tons [33]. - **Price Data**: International and domestic sugar prices are provided. For example, the international sugar price in 2025/26 is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [33]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].

金融研究 2026年3月6日 星期五 金融期货早班车 金融研究 （一） 股指期现货市场表现 表 1：股指期现货市场表现 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅% | 现价 | 涨跌 | 成交量 | 成交额 | 持仓量 | 日增仓量 | 结算价 | 基差 | 基差年化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收益率% | | IC2603 | 中证 2603 | 0.39 | 8255.6 | 32.2 | 100813 | 16707111 | 125426 | -9163 | 8226.2 | 53.6 | -13.4 | | IC2604 | 中证 2604 | 0.31 | 8221.0 | 25.8 | 8078 | 1333536 | 13149 | 943 | 8190 | 88.2 | -8.6 | | IC2606 | 中证 2606 | 0.04 | 8087.6 | 3.6 | 49376 | 8029457 | 111025 | 1137 ...