1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility strategy for sellers can be constructed as they are trending upwards; for black metals, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - amplitude fluctuations; for precious metals, a bull - spread combination strategy can be built as they are rebounding and rising [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2602) closed at 101,380, up 3,270 (3.33%), with a trading volume of 28.70 million lots and an open interest of 25.21 million lots [3] - Aluminum (AL2602) closed at 22,520, up 135 (0.60%), with a trading volume of 35.36 million lots and an open interest of 29.96 million lots [3] - Zinc (ZN2602) closed at 23,215, up 85 (0.37%), with a trading volume of 14.57 million lots and an open interest of 9.74 million lots [3] - And so on for other metals including lead, nickel, tin, etc. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For copper, the volume PCR is 0.45 (down 0.13), and the open interest PCR is 0.74 (up 0.08) [4] - For aluminum, the volume PCR is 0.25 (down 0.29), and the open interest PCR is 0.52 (down 0.04) [4] - Similar data are provided for other metals 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - For copper, the pressure level is 98,000 and the support level is 90,000 [5] - For aluminum, the pressure level is 23,000 and the support level is 21,400 [5] - Other metals also have their corresponding pressure and support levels 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - For copper, the at - the - money implied volatility is 30.23%, the weighted implied volatility is 32.68% (up 5.44%) [6] - For aluminum, the at - the - money implied volatility is 18.46%, the weighted implied volatility is 22.02% (up 3.56%) [6] - Implied volatility data are available for all metals 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a bull - spread combination strategy for call options and a short - volatility seller option combination strategy; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a bull - spread combination strategy for call options, a short - call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, use a collar strategy [9] - Similar strategies are provided for zinc, nickel, tin, and lithium carbonate 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Build a bull - spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller combination strategy; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [12] 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Build a short - call + put option combination strategy for a short - bias; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + sell call options [13] - **Iron ore**: Build a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, use a collar strategy [13] - Similar strategies are provided for ferroalloys, industrial silicon, and glass

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong increased by 125 points or 0.49%, reaching 25,944, while Japan's Nikkei fell over 200 points to 50,550 [2][4] - Shanghai and Shenzhen indices rose by 0.4% and 0.19%, respectively, and Korea's Kospi gained 1.6%, reaching 4,197 [2][4] - Investor sentiment is buoyed by expectations of further US interest rate cuts and confidence in the ongoing technology stock rally [2][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve recently reduced borrowing costs, but indicated a cautious approach, suggesting rates may remain unchanged in the next meeting due to mixed opinions among policymakers [2][4] Commodities Market - Gold prices hovered near $4,500 after peaking just under $4,550, while silver prices slipped to $77.50 after briefly reaching a record $80 [3][4] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to strong buying interest driven by expectations of lower interest rates and their safe-haven status amid geopolitical tensions [3][4] - Oil prices recovered after a decline of over 2% on Friday, influenced by discussions between US President Trump and Ukraine's President Zelensky regarding potential peace proposals [3][4]

Group 1 - Precious metals have seen a rapid increase this week, driven by a better-than-expected decline in the US CPI, opening up room for interest rate cuts in 2026, and improving the probability of a soft landing [1][2] - Domestic funds have gained pricing power in the absence of overseas markets, leading to historic price movements for silver, platinum, and palladium, while gold has underperformed in this period [1][2] - Short-term outlook remains positive for precious metals due to inflows from ETF allocations amid interest rate cut trades, with a long-term view favoring continued holding despite volatility [2] Group 2 - Copper prices are expected to rise again, with Shanghai copper increasing by 5.95% this week, surpassing the 100,000 yuan mark, influenced by improved market sentiment following the US CPI decline [2] - The anticipated supply-demand tightness in copper for 2026 is supported by downward adjustments in production forecasts from Freeport and Teck Resources, alongside expectations of increased fiscal spending from the US government [2] Group 3 - Aluminum prices increased by 0.99% this week, following copper price trends, with low inventory levels reported at 617,000 tons, indicating a slight increase from earlier in the week [3] - Despite being in a traditional off-season, demand from automotive, power, and electronics sectors remains resilient, suggesting a stable outlook for aluminum prices [3] Group 4 - Nickel prices have surged due to a shift in market expectations, with Indonesia planning to reduce nickel production quotas for 2026 by approximately 34% compared to 2025 levels [4] - The actual production in Indonesia is expected to be significantly lower than the approved quotas, which may lead to upward pressure on nickel prices in the long term [4] Group 5 - Tungsten prices have experienced fluctuations, remaining above 450,000 yuan per ton, but have recently declined due to profit-taking by suppliers and concerns over mining quotas at the beginning of the year [5] - The supply of tungsten is expected to continue declining in 2026, with limited large-scale substitution from high-speed steel products, indicating that tungsten prices may remain high [5] Group 6 - Investment recommendations include companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [6]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is experiencing a gradual upward trend supported by multiple positive factors, including easing global liquidity concerns, favorable policies, and currency improvements [2][17] - The market's resilience is evident as indices managed to recover after initial declines, with significant performances from sectors like energy metals, precious metals, and Hainan free trade zone stocks [1][16] Market Overview - Last Friday, the A-share market showed a mixed opening, followed by a brief upward movement before a quick pullback. However, the market rebounded in the afternoon, closing positively with all three major indices ending in the green [5][6] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a total trading volume of 21,602 billion, indicating a moderate level of investor engagement [6] Weekly Market Review - The major indices collectively rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.88%, the Shenzhen Component by 3.53%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.90% [7] - Key sectors that performed well included energy metals, precious metals, and commercial aerospace, while some high-valuation sectors faced corrections [8][11] Sector Analysis - **New Energy Sector**: Stocks related to energy metals, batteries, and lithium mining showed strong performance, driven by ongoing global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality and supportive government policies [8][9] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals sector saw gains due to rising prices of gold, silver, and platinum, influenced by factors such as the onset of a Fed rate cut cycle and increased geopolitical tensions [10] - **Commercial Aerospace**: The commercial aerospace sector has been active, benefiting from clear top-level policies and significant market potential, suggesting a favorable outlook for investments in this area [11] - **Hainan Free Trade Zone**: Stocks in the Hainan free trade zone surged following the official launch of the island's free trade operations, indicating strong market interest and potential for future growth [12] - **Military Industry**: The military sector has shown robust performance, supported by ongoing government investment and geopolitical tensions that may drive demand for military capabilities [13] Future Market Outlook - The market's basic improvement requires time for validation, with macroeconomic data showing marginal improvements but lacking a clear recovery point. The expectation for policy stimulus remains high, particularly around the Lunar New Year [18] - Investment strategies should focus on selecting stocks with strong earnings support across various sectors, including technology growth, cyclical industries, and dividend stocks, while avoiding high-valuation speculative stocks [18]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.31%报 4562.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 11.15%报 79.68 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.17%报 1018.1 元/克，沪银收涨 6.03%报 19204 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 26 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 2.86 | | | | | 吨，当前持仓量为 1071.13 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 | | | | | 上日减少 56.41 吨，当前持仓量为 163 ...

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,819, showing a year-to-date increase of 28.71% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.10% to 3,964, with a year-to-date increase of 18.26% [1] - The US Dow Jones Index decreased by 0.04% to 48,711, with a year-to-date increase of 14.49% [1] - The Nikkei 225 in Japan increased by 0.68% to 50,750, with a year-to-date increase of 27.21% [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index remained unchanged at 49,269, with a year-to-date increase of 40.22% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index also remained unchanged at 17,887, with a year-to-date increase of 19.94% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index stayed at 13,971, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 24.19% [2] Recent Market Trends - A-shares rose last Friday, led by non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and steel, while electronics, light manufacturing, and communications lagged [3] - The USD/CNY exchange rate fell below 7.0, with expectations of further decline to 6.95 in the first half of next year [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies in 2026 to support consumer spending [3] - The Bank of Japan's December meeting minutes indicated a need for gradual interest rate hikes to avoid falling behind inflation [3] US Market Insights - US stocks experienced low trading volume post-Christmas, with materials, information technology, and healthcare sectors rising, while consumer discretionary, energy, and financial sectors fell [3] - Gold and silver prices surged significantly, influenced by margin requirement adjustments for futures contracts [3] - Cryptocurrency markets saw a decline as US investors sold off to offset tax liabilities from stock gains [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced an unprecedented rally in 2025, with gold rising by 72.72%, silver soaring over 170%, and platinum and palladium reaching historical highs, driven by a clear underlying logic [1] Group 1: Market Performance - At the beginning of 2025, gold was trading between $2600 and $3000 per ounce, while silver fluctuated between $28 and $32 [2] - In March, gold broke the $3000 mark with a quarterly increase of 19%, followed by platinum's significant rise of 36.58% in Q2 [2] - The peak occurred in September when gold surged by 11.92% in one month, reaching $3857, and silver saw a quarterly increase of over 29% [2] - By the end of December, silver's quarterly increase reached 70%, with platinum and palladium both rising over 50%, and gold increasing by 17.49% [2] - On December 24, all four precious metals hit historical highs, with gold briefly touching $4549.96 and silver surpassing $79 [2] Group 2: Upward Logic - Traditionally, precious metal prices rise due to a combination of a weaker dollar and declining real interest rates; however, in 2025, the driving forces shifted fundamentally [3] - Notably, there were instances of rising U.S. Treasury yields coinciding with increasing gold prices, indicating a shift in gold pricing logic from being solely interest rate-sensitive to a reassessment of the monetary credit system [3] Group 3: 2026 Outlook - Despite long-term support factors such as ongoing central bank gold purchases, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and unresolved geopolitical risks, the market has entered a new phase [4] - Current prices reflect favorable conditions, leading to a short-term overvaluation; structural market differentiation is expected in 2026 [4] - Gold is likely to be supported by central bank holdings, making it "hard to drop," but its growth may slow; silver may face challenges due to slowing photovoltaic demand, while platinum group metals could emerge as the biggest winners due to unique supply-demand dynamics in the new energy sector [4] Group 4: Supporting Factors - Central banks have normalized gold purchases, with global net purchases reaching 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, and a record monthly increase of 53 tons in October [5] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and heightened Middle Eastern tensions, have increased safe-haven demand, while persistent U.S. inflation and high fiscal deficits have weakened dollar credibility, enhancing gold's appeal as a "non-sovereign asset" [5] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, with silver facing shortages despite new production capacity, and platinum supply constrained by South Africa's energy crisis, while industrial demand for hydrogen fuel cells is surging [5]

A股开盘，三大指数涨跌不一，沪指涨0.02%报3964.65点，深证成指平开，创业板指跌0.19%。盘面 上，国际银价、铜价屡创新高，贵金属及有色金属板块涨幅延续，造纸、医药商业板块低开。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2]. - Copper: Strong overseas spot prices support price increases [2]. - Zinc: Showing a moderately strong oscillation [2]. - Lead: Weak demand restricts price increases [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2]. - Aluminum: Following the upward trend of copper [2]. - Alumina: Under the policy orientation of "internal competition" [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Bullish sentiment remains strong [2]. - Palladium: Oscillating upwards [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [2]. - Stainless steel: Fundamental factors limit its flexibility, and attention should be paid to policy risks in Indonesia [2]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,016.30, with a daily increase of 0.75%, and the night - session closing price was 1018.10, with a night - session increase of 0.17%. The trading volume of ETF SPDR Gold ETF increased by 3 to 1,071.13 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In 2026, the Two Sessions will be held on March 4 for the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and March 5 for the National People's Congress. China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. China's industrial enterprise profits in November 2026 decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. The central bank emphasized preventing the "overshoot" of the RMB exchange rate. Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine were "close to reaching an agreement" [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0 [6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 98,720, with a daily increase of 2.61%, and the night - session closing price was 101380, with a night - session increase of 2.69%. The LME 3M electronic copper board had a closing price of 12,133, with an increase of 0.65% [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners until the end of 2026. Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November 2025 increased by 3.05% month - on - month and 13.13% year - on - year. Chile initiated the preliminary mediation procedure for the labor - capital contract negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1 [9]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 23170, with an increase of 0.46%. The LME 3M electronic zinc board had a closing price of 3086.5, with a decrease of 0.32%. The Shanghai Zinc main contract's trading volume increased by 20495 to 145708, and the position increased by 4103 to 97425 [10]. - **News**: China's industrial enterprise profits in November 2026 decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, but the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% year - on - year from January to November. China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17555, with an increase of 1.39%. The LME 3M electronic lead board had a closing price of 1999.5, with an increase of 0.83%. The Shanghai Lead main contract's trading volume increased by 3669 to 58769, and the position decreased by 770 to 55558 [13]. - **News**: China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. China's industrial enterprise profits in November 2026 decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 338,550, with an increase of 0.79%, and the night - session closing price was 346,280, with an increase of 2.46%. The LME 3M electronic tin board had a closing price of 42,490, with a decrease of 0.81%. The Shanghai Tin main contract's trading volume increased by 70,845 to 369,071, and the position decreased by 968 to 52,276 [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including the time of the Two Sessions, fiscal policy, industrial enterprise profits, exchange - rate prevention, and the Russia - Ukraine situation [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22405, with an increase of 130 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2793, with an increase of 147 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 21390, with an increase of 45 compared to T - 1 [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: Trump plans to take over the US power grid regulatory power for AI data centers. NVIDIA is leading the data center to a 800V DC architecture [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 1 [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 705.30, with an increase of 2.67%. The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 515.65, with a decrease of 2.53%. The trading volume and position of Shanghai Platinum and NYMEX Platinum, as well as Shanghai Palladium and NYMEX Palladium, all had corresponding changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's ETF scale reached 6.03 trillion yuan as of December 27. The National Fiscal Work Conference was held from December 27 to 28. Cambodia and Thailand reached a consensus on the draft joint statement of the Cambodia - Thailand Border General Committee meeting [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum and palladium trend intensities are both 1 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 126,750, with an increase of 1,340 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,955, with a decrease of 35 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and position of both also had corresponding changes [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel - mining area was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports, Indonesia imposed sanctions on mining companies, adjusted RKAB regulations, and there were tariff threats from the US, suspension of new smelting licenses in Indonesia, production impacts in Indonesian nickel - wet projects, and Fed's dovish remarks, as well as export license management for some steel products in China [26][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are both 0 [30].